Japan railway firm pushes Maglev plan to 2034 or later

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"Central Japan Railway Co. said Friday it has given up its plan to launch a new high-speed maglev train between Tokyo and Nagoya in 2027 amid long-running environmental opposition in Shizuoka Prefecture, pushing back the schedule possibly to 2034 or later."
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...s-up-plan-to-launch-maglev-train-in-2027.html
Another gadgetbahnen bites the dust, hopefully.

They already have perfectly good Skinkansen service between Tokyo and Osaka that takes 2 hours for the 500 km ride. Is there really a need to go any faster than that?
 
JR Central would pay for Washington to Baltimore to show it could then go to New York. Somebody at that company really wants maglev to happen. In my possibly wrong opinion, they were heading towards FRA/EIS approval, if it hadn't been opposed (by areas that had previously supported it).
 
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They already have perfectly good Skinkansen service between Tokyo and Osaka that takes 2 hours for the 500 km ride. Is there really a need to go any faster than that?
The Tokaido line currently operates near 180MPH and has already proven 200MPH is within the design capability. It's possible they could get it up to 220MPH in the future, which would already be among the fastest land speeds anywhere. Comparatively expensive and inefficient Maglev systems seem like a very expensive solution in search of an extremely niche problem.

Better spen that money for addition HSR route miles instead of duplicating existing HSR line.
They are still building out more of the HSR network but the time lines are long and the speeds can vary considerably depending on terrain. Personally I would prefer they spend everything going to Maglev on speeding up HSR expansions and related improvements.
 
Another gadgetbahnen bites the dust, hopefully.

They already have perfectly good Skinkansen service between Tokyo and Osaka that takes 2 hours for the 500 km ride. Is there really a need to go any faster than that?
This does seem like a Gadgetbahn.

Somehow though, in the hands of the Japanese, there is an inherent trust, however small, that a breakthrough is possible.

Agreed however. Bringing the Tokaido Line up to 220 would seem to be a much better use of cash. The speed of the line, however, seems to be a bit of a red herring. It’s fast enough already, and the frequency is amazing.
 
Another gadgetbahnen bites the dust, hopefully.

They already have perfectly good Skinkansen service between Tokyo and Osaka that takes 2 hours for the 500 km ride. Is there really a need to go any faster than that?
The fastest Nozomi is 2 hours and 25 minutes. You're giving a 20% improvement that doesn't exist. Amtrak spends BILLIONS to save 6 minutes on the NEC. the current proposed time from Tokyo to Osaka on MagLev is 67 minutes. That's a 54% time reduction (vs 44% if Nozomi was 2 hours). Even if it was only 2 hours, that's a HUGE time savings. The fastest flight is 65 minutes WITHOUT considering security and boarding times. I don't consider transit to the airport because you'd have to travel to the train station, too.

When you are talking about the sheer number of people who travel between these two locations, just having the extra land-based capacity (never mind speed) is a welcome addition, especially since it takes a significantly different route, allowing the incorporation of some previously underserved inland municipalities.

Overall, I can't wait to see this happen. When Shinkansen first opened back in 1967, it took 4 hours to get from Tokyo to Osaka. Today, it makes the trip in 60% of that time. I don't think we can comprehend future unknown technologies that could bring the 67 maglev trip down by another 40% - all with the potential of not using fossil fuels.

Nuclear power, hydroelectric power, wind farms, etc. can't propel an aircraft with 350 passengers those 500 km. I'm about as far right as this forum can tolerate, but I believe that we should do the best we can to preserve fossil fuels for routes that absolutely cannot be powered otherwise. I'm 1000% in for Maglev in Japan, China, but mostly here in the US. We are SO far behind. China is taking us to lunch on next gen power tech and utilizing it for transit. I prefer that the technology is developed and shared by a democratic ally of the USA.
 
The fastest Nozomi is 2 hours and 25 minutes. You're giving a 20% improvement that doesn't exist. Amtrak spends BILLIONS to save 6 minutes on the NEC. the current proposed time from Tokyo to Osaka on MagLev is 67 minutes. That's a 54% time reduction (vs 44% if Nozomi was 2 hours). Even if it was only 2 hours, that's a HUGE time savings. The fastest flight is 65 minutes WITHOUT considering security and boarding times. I don't consider transit to the airport because you'd have to travel to the train station, too.
Two hours would have been within spec of the 500 Series Nozomi. To the best of my memory it was not operated that fast due to energy usage, which will only get worse with Maglev. Domestic flights in Japan are among the most energy efficient (per seat) in the world due to super dense seating with simpler and faster security and boarding compared to Western countries. Comparing the NEC to the Tokaido Shinkansen is so apples to oranges that I fail to see any relevance.

When you are talking about the sheer number of people who travel between these two locations, just having the extra land-based capacity (never mind speed) is a welcome addition, especially since it takes a significantly different route, allowing the incorporation of some previously underserved inland municipalities.
For significantly less money and financial risk a conventional 220MPH HSR could use the same new tunnels to gain faster times and additional stops with the benefit of substantial energy savings and fleet compatibility along with standardized maintenance and repair. One way Japan keeps HSR costs down is by introducing new hardware on top trains and removing the oldest hardware from the slowest trains. This works great when fleets share compatibility, but Maglev will not be compatible with anything else, so the whole fleet will need to be replaced at the same time in one go like a super expensive monorail. Maglev is one layer of inefficiency on top of another on top of another. While the idea of Maglev is great the practicality is as boutique as transportation policy can get.
 
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I think Maglev is great when creating new systems from scratch. The last time this sort of opportunity arose was when China developed its HSR system. Yet despite dabbling with a German maglev on one short route, the Chinese decided to invest in conventional HSR for the rest of their network. I understand concerns over being locked in with one proprietary manufacturer influenced this decision. This obstacle is, to be honest, in some form or other, the problem with almost all forms of gadgetbahn. In this particular case it was compounded by the unwillingness of the Germans to allow a technology transfer under the very generous terms the Chinese were demanding.

Maybe the next frontier for HSR might be in Africa or Latin America. With no significant legacy rail network needing to be compatible with, this might be an opportunity for Maglev. But that is still several decades away I believe.
 
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They already have perfectly good Shinkansen service between Tokyo and Osaka that takes 2 hours for the 500 km ride. Is there really a need to go any faster than that?
Even after seeing it is hard to believe the huge volume of people and trains on the existing route. Think big city rapid transit at rush hour. About as much speed as possible has been squeezed out of the exiting route due to curvature and clearances. They have the interesting issue of sonic booms out the exit ends of tunnels on some of the existing tunnels with increased speeds. Remember, when the first Shinkansen lines were built, 200 km/h = 125 mph was considered the edge of the planet so far as speed on rails was considered. Obviously that has proven to be false. At this point it is looking like the practical limit may be more on the order of 400 km/hr, but who really knows? As to the Chinese decided after the building the German maglev at the Shanghai airport to not go further with the concept that was absolutely the right decision for several reasons, not the least among them the obvious incompatibility of maglev and existing railway, complexity of any switchwork, and lack of possibility of safe evacuation due to the train encapsulating the guideway. The Japanese maglev system has the guideway encapsulating the lower portion of the train, eliminating the safety issue. The near overwhelming of the existing Shinkansen track in the area in question makes the lack of compatibility with the existing railway of much less significance. While I am still not sure that maglev is the way to go, if anybody is going to do what it takes to seriously prove or disprove the wisdom thereof, Japan and Japanese Railway engineering would by far be the best people to do it. I still think we are a long way from needing to consider Maglev in the US.
 
Even if Maglev lives up to the hype who among us would be willing to stomach double or triple HSR costs to get it? Does anyone think a majority of Americans (or most countries outside Japan) would be willing to risk public funds on such boutique tech? Would HSR projects in CA, NV, or TX be better off at double the cost and build times and no connection or commonality with anything else? I think Maglev will turn out to be a lot like supersonic flight. Technically impressive when government backs the costs as a vanity project for wealthy travelers, but with energy needs, operational limitations, and specialty maintenance that hold it back from reaching economies of scale. Japan is host to an economy and population in decline and rather than focusing on low hanging goals that can be realized in the near future they're chasing a moonshot project that will not be finished until many of the potential passengers have retired or passed on.
 
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With all the excitement about Maglev and its speeds, we must not forget that the laws of physics apply regardless of the method of propulsion. In other words, a 200 mph curve on rails will still be a 200 mph curve if the propulsion is maglev. The rate of change in vertical curves on high speed rail is based on the allowable percentage of gravity. That also applies regardless of the method of propulsion. These are comfort limitations, not safety limitations. Anyone who has ever ridden on track maintained to the minimum for the speed limit should recognize this. Sit down and hang on so you don't get bounced around, but the train stays on the track. Look at the multiple curves in the CAHSR alignment. Many of these are due to NIMBY and other pressures, plus in the mountains avoidance of fault lines and other geographic features. These will still all be there regardless of whether the propulsion is Maglev or wheel on rail.
 
Another gadgetbahnen bites the dust, hopefully.

They already have perfectly good Skinkansen service between Tokyo and Osaka that takes 2 hours for the 500 km ride. Is there really a need to go any faster than that?
Intercity Maglevs (or any other technology inherently incomptible with legacy rail or HSR technology) may only ever make sense in either:
1) countries which are obscenely rich, yet have not yet built a significant legacy rail network, or
2) HSR corridors which have reached their capacity limit.

At somewhere around 15 trains per hour, the Tokkaido Shinkansen is the only corridor on this planet which satisfy that second condition. There is a strong case to build the Chuo (Maglev) Shinkansen, but I wouldn’t hold my breath that we see a second such line getting built and completed anywhere else on this planet within our lifetimes…

Agreed however. Bringing the Tokaido Line up to 220 would seem to be a much better use of cash. The speed of the line, however, seems to be a bit of a red herring. It’s fast enough already, and the frequency is amazing.
Beyond a relatively low speed level (~50 mph for cars on a highway), there is an inverse relationship between speed and capacity (which is why cars in dense highway traffic first slow down to moderate speeds before it becomes a crawl and eventually a standstill).

From memory, these are the minimum required distances until the next stop signal for HSR trainsets in Germany to reach certain speeds and you can clearly see how that minimum distance rises exponentionally with speed (e.g., 250 km/h is 25% faster than 200 km/h, but requires a 100% longer movement authority, which takes 60% longer to trave through):

Design Speed (km/h)Required movement authority (m)Travel time at design speed to cover length of required movement authority (sec)
160
[100 mph]
1,20027
200
[125 mph]
2,00036
250
[155 mph]
4,00058
300
[185 mph]
9,600115
330
[205 mph]
13,300142

Once you acknowledge that „capacity“ is the main constraint on the Tokkaido Shinkansen (rather than: “speed” or “travel times”), you might have an easier time conceding that increasing the design speed would exacerbate rather than mitigate the problem they are trying to solve…
 
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Once you acknowledge that „capacity“ is the main constraint on the Tokkaido Shinkansen, you‘ll have to concede that increasing the design speed would exacerbate rather than mitigate the problem…
Avoiding quoting the entire post since it is just above this one.
Actually, at 15 trains per hour your chart does not prove your conclusion so far as the Shinkansen is concerned. 142 seconds is still under 3 minutes. Nor am I ready to believe these distances are the absolute floor. 13.8 km at 330 km/hr? That is a minimum of 8.6 miles between trains to allow 205 mph. Seems more than a little long. At an existing 15 trains per hour, that is 4.5 minute train spacing. A likely main driver is increasing speed as much as increasing train capacity. Remember, the design speed for the original Shinkansen was 200 km/hr, and given the likely curvature in the mountainous terrain anything faster is pushing the reasonable speed limits much as the situation we have in the Northeast Corridor. The current Taiwan HSR runs 300 km/hr for most of its distance without breaking a sweat. One likely possibility is that, with the power needed to achieve and maintain 350 km/hr, you are pushing the limits of wheel-rail adhesion on wet rails on grades, as currently understood. I say "as currently understood" because we have seen what were previously considered to be insurmountable limits passed.
 
Once you acknowledge that „capacity“ is the main constraint on the Tokkaido Shinkansen (rather than: “speed” or “travel times”), you might have an easier time conceding that increasing the design speed would exacerbate rather than mitigate the problem they are trying to solve…
Even if every potential issue along the entire Maglev route is quickly resolved with no further time delays, cost overruns, or construction impediments Japan's working age population is projected to shrink around 10% before such a line can bridge Tokyo and Osaka. Knowning Japan's stance on immigration we can reasonably assume it will contiue to shrink long after that. Outside the two or three busiest weeks per year conventional HSR, domestic widebody aircraft, and overnight buses have all the capacity Japan needs today and tomorrow.
 
Japan's working age population is projected to shrink around 10%
This does not necessarily impact the market of an HSR route, as most of Japan's population shrinkage is projected to affect rural areas, with the cities stranding up well if not even growing a bit more. The population shrinkage is thus likely to hurt the legacy narrow gauge network much more than the HSR.

That said, I believe Japan's main motivation here is not so much the domestic utility of the line, as having a showcase project that could win them export orders.
 
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This does not necessarily impact the market of an HSR route, as most of Japan's population shrinkage is projected to affect rural areas, with the cities stranding up well if not even growing a bit more. The population shrinkage is thus likely to hurt the legacy narrow gauge network much more than the HSR.

That said, I believe Japan's main motivation here is not so much the domestic utility of the line, as having a showcase project that could win them export orders.
Nah - I disagree. I think your first point of population shrinkage would actually allow for growth in the rural areas and sort of "spread out" the population. And, as others have pointed out, I think that bringing Osaka and Tokyo closer together is really the penultimate goal. Sure, they'll be happy to export their tech. The Japanese are meticulous about getting things right the first time. Note that the delay wasn't really for technical reasons, but rather political wrangling from their own NIMBYs.
 
I would also postulate that an ageing population would lead to more people who, for reasons of age and/or health, are not able or at least not willing to drive their own vehicles. Until self-driving cars become common, this would mean more people will be using public transportation (of all forms, so buses, trains, airlines ...), and thus put further pressure on the rail system. Adding capacity would thus make perfect sense even if the overall population is in decline.
 
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