Brightline Trains Florida discussion 2025

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Here is a thought. When just FEC how many trains would make the trip Cocoa <> MIA before a grade crossing incident. Now with Brightline what is the number of trains before a grade crossing incident? I have no idea! Could it be the rate of incidences are close to the same per train??? This route is one of a very few any where in the USA where the train rate has increased probably more than 300%. Would be an interesting study by the FRA,

Of course, various study items such as no crossing protection, lights only and now all with gates both 2 gate and 4 gate. Might give regulators insight of motorist behaviors?
 
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I sure am tired of these dang wrapped trains. Changed seats north out of West Palm just so I could get a dot-free view to the west.
On the Princess Cruises & Kissimmee wraps, Car #4, which was added to the consist, is unwrapped.

On the Orlando Health wrap, they went ahead and wrapped Car #4, too.

I haven't seen the Visit Orlando wrap lately; don't know whether it still exists.
 
I'm wondering when Brightline will realize that wrapped trains or cars are less desirable to passengers and start increasing fares on the unwrapped ones. Whaaaaatttt? Never underestimate the opportunities of the corporation trying to increase their profit. Look at the airlines...they've thought of very possible way of making you pay more for what you've always gotten.
 
I'm wondering when Brightline will realize that wrapped trains or cars are less desirable to passengers and start increasing fares on the unwrapped ones.
Are you sure that wrapped trains are less desirable to most passengers? Perhaps the vast majority of passengers are riding for its transportation utility and don't care whether trains are wrapped. Meanwhile, Brightline is getting advertising revenue from the wrapped trains, which might be a handy buffer for them during transient periods of low ridership. (Which brings me to the pint that while I love it when the trains are empty and I don't have to sit next to anyone, the company operating the railroad sure doesn't like those empty trains.) I think if we want to have frequent and comprehensive train service, we might have to ready to put up with wrapped trains and seatmates.
 
I'm wondering when Brightline will realize that wrapped trains or cars are less desirable to passengers and start increasing fares on the unwrapped ones. Whaaaaatttt? Never underestimate the opportunities of the corporation trying to increase their profit. Look at the airlines...they've thought of very possible way of making you pay more for what you've always gotten.
True, yet despite pursuing every possible route to charge money for what used to be free, airlines have remained very hesitant to wrap their planes in advertising wraps, or even apply interior advertising or audio advertising (this safety on board announcement is brought to you by Pepsi).

Maybe airlines understand that the annoyance to customers outweighs the cashflow.
 
True, yet despite pursuing every possible route to charge money for what used to be free, airlines have remained very hesitant to wrap their planes in advertising wraps, or even apply interior advertising or audio advertising (this safety on board announcement is brought to you by Pepsi).

Maybe airlines understand that the annoyance to customers outweighs the cashflow.
The last few years I have flown on AA, the flight attendants have been hawking their Citi-Aadvantage credit cards…
 
Are you sure that wrapped trains are less desirable to most passengers? Perhaps the vast majority of passengers are riding for its transportation utility and don't care whether trains are wrapped.
Yeah that's me. The dots on the windows are emphatically bad but they're not in the same world of badness as driving.
 
Of course, there may be those who prefer the wrapped trains because it cuts down the glare and heat that can come in through an unwrapped window ...
They don't cut it down nearly as much as the integrated window shades, and in August the a/c on Brightline works a lot better than on Amtrak or Germany's ICE.
 
Are you sure that wrapped trains are less desirable to most passengers?
I'm sure that wrapped trains are less desirable to a significant portion of passengers - Brightline themselves and Amtrak have both said this over the years.

As to your argument for marketing money, unless you have data that shows that a fully wrapped train makes more advertising money than a wrapped train with windows cut out, it doesn't really matter.
 
True, yet despite pursuing every possible route to charge money for what used to be free, airlines have remained very hesitant to wrap their planes in advertising wraps, or even apply interior advertising or audio advertising (this safety on board announcement is brought to you by Pepsi).

Maybe airlines understand that the annoyance to customers outweighs the cashflow.
Regarding your tongue-in-cheek ( I assume) comment about airlines not wrapping their planes in ads inside and out...that's a decision they can make and we, as passengers, can deal with it. But what if airlines decide to blur/wrap the windows of the planes with outside ads so passengers can't look out. This example is closer to what I'm thinking about.
By the way, have you ever been in a city bus wrapped in ads and have tried to see out the window to determine if your stop is coming up. Same issue. Money over passenger enjoyment, and in the case of bus passengers, practicality of knowing when you need to get ready to get off. Interesting thread. I enjoy the comments.
 
I'm waiting on the December ridership report to run a detailed analysis, but using a placeholder assumption that December is a carbon copy of November (in 2021 they were just restarting service, in 2022 there was an 80% ridership jump because Boca/Aventura opened, and in 2023 ridership jumped by 15% but IIRC they were still ramping up service to Orlando across those months, so this will probably be low):

The official lower-end projections in their latest prospectus from this spring (05/06/24) was:
Short distance:
Ridership: 1.8m
Average fare: $32.42
Revenue: $57m

Long distance:
Ridership: 2.2m
Average fare: $103.47
Revenue: $228m

Combined:
Ridership: 4.0m
Average fare: $71.98
Revenue: $285m

Ancillary Revenue: $53m
Total Revenue: $338m

Now, where are we?

Short distance:
Ridership: 1,124,373
Average fare: $29.17
Revenue: $32.8m

Long Distance:
Ridership: 1,621,501
Average fare: $73.20
Revenue: $118.7m

Combined:
Ridership: 2,745,874
Average fare: $55.17
Revenue: $151.5m

Ancillary Revenue: $35.1m
Total Revenue: $186.6m

Obviously, Brightline is not making its ridership projections for 2024, and these were the low case projections. Now, let's be honest - as I noted last year, the big issue has been train capacity. Going from four car trains to five car trains has helped nudge ridership back up by about 15% over the last few months, and I think the trains have only just become reliably all five cars long in the last two months or so. Going to six (and then seven) should help relieve this. Loosely speaking, I'd think that each car on all of the sets is worth 40-50,000 riders/month, so at seven cars you'd be close to the above projections.

Of course, Brightline is officially projecting 6.7-7.9m riders for 2025 in their report, and given train capacity that dog won't hunt.

Over on the revenue side, $186.6m isn't quite enough to cover projected expenses for 2024 (that's $199m or $227m depending on what you roll in), but the numbers will likely flip to a net-positive situation on those numbers for Nov/Dec. Probably not by a lot, but it'll probably be positive vs the lower number going into 2025 and if the other cars are delivered on time it'd cover the higher number.

Covering debt service is still a long way off from where we are (though the Stuart and Cocoa stations should help there - adding a few hundred thousand more riders will be a net positive), but Brightline does seem to be approaching a point where, at worst, they could do a debt-reorganization bankruptcy and come out profitable.
 
The last few years I have flown on AA, the flight attendants have been hawking their Citi-Aadvantage credit cards…
That is where the real money is from what I have read about the credit cards. Oddly enough it was my wife accepting a Spirit Airlines credit card that motivated me to get an Amtrak credit card and then my wife did as well. And we dumped the Spirit card.
 
FAA does not allow any visual impairment of windows for emergency evacuation reasons.
Maybe passengers can petition the same agency to say the same about the wrap of passengers train windows...i.e wraps of passenger windows are an impediment to passenger safety in the event of an emergency. Hmmmm...is this so far fetched?
 
That is where the real money is from what I have read about the credit cards. Oddly enough it was my wife accepting a Spirit Airlines credit card that motivated me to get an Amtrak credit card and then my wife did as well. And we dumped the Spirit card.
In fairly plain terms, the AA FAs get paid a ton for hawking the cards. The commission is something like $100/card. FAs who are good with the pitch can rake in a comfortable five figure supplementary income, and it's a big incentive to try to work lower-frequency-traveler flights (e.g. Thanksgiving/Christmas).
 
Code:
2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                    
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   125,475     2.6         $2,588,549    $20.72    $20.63
2023    October     126,059     3.1         $3,092,227    $24.59    $24.53
2023    November    112,423     2.9         $2,915,128    $25.79    $25.93
2023    December    121,386     3.5         $3,470,426    $28.83    $28.59

2023                1,747,762   39.0       $38,992,570    $22.31    $22.31

2024    January     113,560     3.2         $3,246,680    $28.18    $28.59
2024    February    114,264     3.3                                 $28.93
2024    March       124,379     4.2                                 $33.96
2024    April       103,737     3.5                                 $33.51
2024    May          95,965     2.9                                 $30.62
2024    June         84,062     2.4                                 $28.03
2024    July         76,907     2.1                                 $27.08
2024    August       71,507     2.0                                 $27.76
2024    September    75,230     1.9                                 $25.88
2024    October      83,514     2.3                                 $27.60
2024    November     90,624     2.5                                 $27.10
2024    December    101,756     3.0                                 $29.42

2024              1,135,505    33.3                                 $29.34

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived
Code:
Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2023    September    17,578      1.5         $1,479,364   $85.33    $84.16   
2023    October      79,686      7.3         $7,314,378   $91.61    $91.79
2023    November     93,184      8.4         $8,360,468   $90.14    $89.72
2023    December    115,683      9.0         $8,970,060   $77.80    $77.54

2023                306,131     26.1        $26,125,220   $85.26    $85.34

2024    January     122,703      9.1         $9,126,649   $74.16    $74.38     
2024    February    113,874      9.2                                $80.54
2024    March       133,928     10.7                                $80.25
2024    April       119,380      8.8                                $74.13
2024    May         135,918      9.6                                $70.81
2024    June        139,307      9.9                                $71.46
2024    July        143,488      9.9                                $69.33
2024    August      136,555      9.3                                $68.04
2024    September   130,249      9.4                                $71.85
2024    October     134,221      9.9                                $73.98
2024    November    155,939     11.3                                $72.80
2024    December    162,201     11.8                                $72.74

2024              1,628,007    119.2                                $73.20

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived
Code:
2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                    
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   143,053     4.1         $4,068,427    $28.66    $28.44    5.8     $40.54
2023    October     205,745    10.4        $10,406,582    $50.55    $50.58   12.8     $62.21
2023    November    205,607    11.3        $11,275,488    $54.96    $54.84   13.9     $67.60
2023    December    237,069    12.4        $12,441,381    $52.31    $52.48   16.7     $70.44

2023              2,053,893    65.1        $65,108,408    $31.70    $31.70   87.7     $42.70

2024    January     236,263    12.4        $12,373,093    $52.48    $52.37   15.3     $64.76
2024    February    228,138    12.5                                 $54.69   15.5
2024    March       258,307    15.0                                 $57.96   18.1
2024    April       223,117    12.3                                 $55.25   15.2
2024    May         231,883    12.6                                 $54.18   15.4
2024    June        223,369    12.3                                 $55.11   15.2
2024    July        220,395    12.0                                 $54.59   14.8
2024    August      208,062    11.3                                 $54.20   14.0
2024    September   205,479    11.3                                 $55.02   14.1
2024    October     217,735    12.2                                 $56.19   15.1
2024    November    246,563    13.8                                 $56.00   16.9
2024    December    264,201    14.8                                 $56.05   18.2

2024              2,763,512   152.5                                 $55.18  187.9

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived
 
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