2013 Elections and Transit

[Blackwolf]

So, preliminary results are in for a few of the more "major" election races, and it is looking to shape up like this:

• New York City has a Democrat in the mayor's office; Bill de Blasio is the first Democrat in 20 years to serve as top boss for the city.
• New Jersey has re-elected Chris Christie as governor.
• Virginia has a new Democrat in the State House; Terry McAuliffe is being called winner by CNN.

With an eye toward transit, especially rail, how do those with insight feel the next few years may shape up to look like?

 

[Acela150]

I'm extremely interested on how Virginia will be progressing in the passenger rail sector. Considering their soon to be ex-governor who is republican, wants Amtrak in Virginia.

 

[CHamilton]

Here in the Northwest, returns are just beginning to come in. It will take several days before we know the results of some races, since all balloting is by mail in Washington state.

Current Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn is losing to State Senator Ed Murray. The media are calling Murray's win "a nearly sure bet," although McGinn has not yet conceded. Both candidates are liberal Democrats, and both have expressed support for transit, although McGinn seems to be more interested in light rail than Murray. Neither have expressed their position on the Waterfront Streetcar, but McGinn has moved ahead with planning for a streetcar on First Avenue, which might preclude bringing back streetcars on the waterfront.

Seattle also appears to be approving a measure to change the current at-large city council election process to one based on districts. It's difficult to assess how this might affect transit, but I would guess that it will make citywide planning more challenging.

Today's big news on transit isn't the election, but the surprising announcement from Gov. Inslee that he is calling a special session of the legislature. The agenda will be to pass a package of incentives for Boeing to entice them to build the 777X in the state. But the agenda will also include $10B in state transportation that the legislature failed to pass during the regular session. It's mostly roads -- and mega-roads at that -- but it would include the state approval needed for King County (Seattle) to vote to tax itself for transit.

Grays Harbor County (Aberdeen, Hoquiam) seems to be passing a measure to save weekend service on their transit system.

State rail service may be affected by the news from Bellingham in Whatcom County: "If the Whatcom County Council elections were a referendum on a proposed coal export terminal, then the community appears to have taken a stand against it," according to the Bellingham Herald. BNSF has been involved in transporting coal for export from North Dakota, but most of the locations that have been proposed for export terminals seem to have turned against the idea. [Meanwhile in Seattle, probable mayoral election winner Ed Murray said: "We're going to stop coal trains."]

The state Senate may be turning more R, although it already is, sort of: "A predominantly Republican Majority Coalition Caucus currently controls the Senate with the help of two Democrats, giving the majority caucus a one-vote advantage in the chamber, and Republicans hope to gain another seat to give their caucus more cushion heading into the 2014 election, when about half of the Senate will be up for re-election."

And I can't resist adding that at least two deceased candidates -- one in Des Moines, WA, and one in Grays Harbor County -- won election last night.

 

[PerRock]

While My local city (the only thing up for vote here) is a democratic stronghold, the anti-transit democrats have been taking a stronger and stronger hold these last few elections. In my ward in particular the current councilman has stated he would like to see the city shut down Michigan's largest Amtrak station, and the sad thing is, he's running for mayor next election. It's kinda sad that when all the communities around us are going more pro-transit Ann Arbor is going anti-transit. If this branch of the party continues to grow, I wouldn't be surprised to find you catching an Amtrak train from Ypsi rather then Ann Arbor in a few years time.

peter

 

[Ryan]

I'm extremely interested on how Virginia will be progressing in the passenger rail sector. Considering their soon to be ex-governor who is republican, wants Amtrak in Virginia.

This was the last of 7 points in Cuccinellie's "transportation plan:

7. Enhance Virginias Passenger And Freight Rail Systems

Passenger: As Governor, I will support level funding.

1. Complete 11-mile segment of 3rd track in Quantico.

2. Await comprehensive study and total cost analysis of Hampton Roads light rail projects before determining funding allocations.

3. Request expedited federal environmental reviews on all rail projects.

Freight: As Governor, I will continue to support efforts to improve freight-rail capacity.

Virginia has participated in funding the rail corridors for freight movement. Norfolk Southern has two rail corridors; one of them the Heartland Corridor is set to complete its double stack ability from Norfolk to Chicago. This type of capacity shortens the amount of time it takes to deliver goods. In New York, for instance, industry and businesses do not need to ship to the Midwest they have the population to use products right there. To be competitive with other states on the East Coast, the Port of Virginia has to be better prepared to move freight out of the region more quickly, particularly in light of our significant opportunity with the expansion of the Panama Canal.

Contrast that with McAuliffe:

(formatting errors mine, I had to copy from a PDF)

Increasing support for inter-city passenger rail.

*Virginias cities and citizens need to be connected to other markets.We should continue to invest in those lines that make economic sense to ensure that our passenger rail service is Fast, frequent, reliable, and affordable:

*Supporting passenger rail to Roanoke.

*Continued support for the Lynchburg and Charlottesville line.

*Studying and implementing improvements on Richmond to DC rail line.

*Marketing and supporting Norfolk passenger rail.

Improving connectivity across our network.

*We should make sure that our rails fully connect distribution and deliverycenters along with providing passenger access to our airports.

Supporting Our Local and Regional TransitSystems:

Virginians deserve choices. Transit systems provide choices while increasing property values and commercial activity.

Increasing support for transit.

We must continue to invest in our local and regional transit systems.

Tying together local communities and economies.

The Commonwealth should encourage local governments and transit systems to work together to connect our work force to jobs.

*Discourage duplication of services.

Where multiple systems exist and overlap the Commonwealth shouldencourage consolidation.

Prioritize connecting our light rail and subway systems for economic development.

In those parts of theCommonwealth that have a need for light rail or subway systems, we should support those systems and make expansions when they will support economic development. Of critical importance to that mission are projects like:

*Bringing Metro Rail all the way to Dulles Airport and into Loudoun County.

*Creating a seamless Hampton Roads transit system rom the Naval base to the waterfront.

It's pretty clear that Amtrak and other transit will be much better off in Virginia with McAuliffe in office.

 

[Anderson]

The issue with McAuliffe is that I'm worried you'll get a "partisan boomerang effect" (that is to say that proposals may run into trouble because of the party of the proposer(s) rather than the merits thereof). Not only did the GOP manage to hold the Dems to a net gain of one in the House, it also seems like there are a couple of seats they could pick up in '11. On the Senate side, it seems likely that the Dems are vacating two seats due to up-ballot wins (Northam and Herring), and in both cases the seats are plausible GOP pickups.

The other worry is that things get tied up in the fight over Medicaid. It's possible that McAuliffe takes office in January to find that he's facing a 67-33 House and 22-18 Senate against him. Without commenting on the Medicaid fight itself, if McAuliffe were to follow through on his threat to veto any budget not funding a Medicaid expansion, 2015 is going to be a very long year in such a situation.

 

[Ryan]

That's a really good point, and not out of line from what we've seen at the national level.

 

[Anderson]

For what it's worth, VHSR doesn't seem concerned about it given that (A) the Speaker of the House happens to be from Fredericksburg and (B) he basically threw some freshmen in the House to the wolves to get the transportation bill through. That said, a fair statement would be that he is not beloved of the party right now and seems to be holding onto his job because nobody's challenged him.

The complicating factor is that McDonnell basically did a "Nixon to China" with the transportation bill. It's more complicated than that, but basically that same package, if proposed by a Democrat under the exact same circumstances, would probably have been DOA since you'd have lost about 20 Republicans (if not seen the party fall into line against it outright).

Basically, as strange as it sounds, the challenge may well be to get McAuliffe to either (1) shut up and let it ride (since our status quo is, by any standards, more than acceptable) or (2) make sure he does his groundwork and lets some Republicans have credit for elements of the policy and/or makes sure he's got local government groups behind a proposal before moving. It would just be our luck for him to propose an ambitious rail plan and completely f*** us out of what we gained this year in the process.

The sad thing is that Cuccinelli was/is, if anything, probably the least anti-rail "tea party" type I've seen out there. Let's face it...I think we'd all give our right arm to see even that tentative level of support coming from Rick Scott, Scott Walker, John Kaisch, and so on.

 

[CHamilton]

Last Night’s Quiet Transit Victories

Yesterday was a relatively quiet election day for transportation-related ballot measures, but of the six transit initiatives that came before voters yesterday, six passed, with a seventh too close to call. That’s in line with last year’s 79 percent success rate — 71 percent since 2000. When asked, voters overwhelmingly choose to raise their own taxes to improve public transportation.

Details in the article.

 

[afigg]

The complicating factor is that McDonnell basically did a "Nixon to China" with the transportation bill. It's more complicated than that, but basically that same package, if proposed by a Democrat under the exact same circumstances, would probably have been DOA since you'd have lost about 20 Republicans (if not seen the party fall into line against it outright).

Basically, as strange as it sounds, the challenge may well be to get McAuliffe to either (1) shut up and let it ride (since our status quo is, by any standards, more than acceptable) or (2) make sure he does his groundwork and lets some Republicans have credit for elements of the policy and/or makes sure he's got local government groups behind a proposal before moving. It would just be our luck for him to propose an ambitious rail plan and completely f*** us out of what we gained this year in the process.

The sad thing is that Cuccinelli was/is, if anything, probably the least anti-rail "tea party" type I've seen out there. Let's face it...I think we'd all give our right arm to see even that tentative level of support coming from Rick Scott, Scott Walker, John Kaisch, and so on.

I agree that McDonnell did the heavy lifting in getting a transportation bill passed with tax increases, however overly complicated and flawed the bill may be. It took until the 4th year of his governorship to get it passed, this by a Republican controlled House. If a Democratic governor had proposed the sales tax and fee increases, it would have been stonewalled by the Republicans.
I think if Cuccinelli had been elected, we would have seen efforts by him to undermine the transportation bill, redirect transit and passenger rail funding, stop any The Tide LRT expansion, and make an attempt to stop Phase 2 of the Silver Line project. But he lost, so it will be Governor McAuliffe. Silver Line Phase 2, Columbia Pike street car, and continuing the current VA contributions to the WMATA Metro Forward improvement plan will have full support from the VA executive branch for the next 4 years.

The hard part was getting the tax increases for transportation passed. Now VA is relatively flush with transportation funding with debates and fights to come over controversial road projects and how to allocate the money. At a minimum, McAuliffe will let the current Amtrak projects proceed. He may well propose a more ambitious and faster implementation of the passenger rail plan, shifting funds from the rather large road and highway budget.

But I would not expect a backlash from the Republicans that would hurt the funds for the extensions to Roanoke and 3 daily trains to Norfolk, because those are benefiting the redder parts of the state. A logical big project to start on is to make the upgrades to re-route the Norfolk and other south of RVR Amtrak trains through Main Street Station, mere blocks from the state capitol. Which as a non-northern VA project should be an easier sell to the VA House and Senate.

 

[afigg]

• New York City has a Democrat in the mayor's office; Bill de Blasio is the first Democrat in 20 years to serve as top boss for the city.

Speaking of Mayor elect de Blasio, Streetsblog has this article on what is known of his transit and safe street views: Mayor de Blasio, Inequality, and Reforming NYCs Streets.

One of the most insightful questions of the 2013 campaign season came two weeks ago, when WNYCs Brian Lehrer asked Bill de Blasio if he considered transportation policy one of his tools to fight inequality.

De Blasio, who overwhelmed his opponents this election cycle by appealing to New Yorkers sense of economic fairness, gave this response:

Transportation determines opportunity, livability, business climate. For many people, the absence of affordable transportation, in outer-borough locations especially, constrains their opportunities.

Those two sentences are an excellent distillation of why de Blasio is viewed with a mixture of hope and trepidation by New Yorkers who care about livable streets.

 

[Nathanael]

So, preliminary results are in for a few of the more "major" election races, and it is looking to shape up like this:

• New York City has a Democrat in the mayor's office; Bill de Blasio is the first Democrat in 20 years to serve as top boss for the city.
• New Jersey has re-elected Chris Christie as governor.
• Virginia has a new Democrat in the State House; Terry McAuliffe is being called winner by CNN.

With an eye toward transit, especially rail, how do those with insight feel the next few years may shape up to look like?

Depends massively on state legislature elections, for which I haven't heard any results. There are only a few states where the governor is truly dominant over transportation policy (NY is one of 'em, but our state legislature does what our governor tells it to); in most states, the legislature matters far more than the governor.
Regarding mayors, Cincinnati had a terrible loss, with the "cancel the streetcar even after we laid tracks, just because I hate streetcars" candidate getting elected.