Amtrak launching nonstop NYC-DC Acela (suspended 3/10-5/26)

[Acela150]

2170 and 2172 operate to BOS. You also free up additional space for travel to BOS, which would help. Even the 4:30 departure is pulling people fro, 2172 as it gives them another half hour but doesn't arrive too much later than 2172.

True, although how many folks get on 2170 and 2172 in WAS, BWI, and BAL and go all the way to PVD or past that? I can definitely see people going from WAS to STM or even NHV. But as far as travel between both ends of the corridor I'll have to look into that. Cause I actually am fairly curious to see what those numbers are like. But either way folks shifting to 2402 definitely frees up some seats for intermediate travel on 2170 and 2172 regardless of travel origin and destination.

 

[Anderson]

Doesn't that defeat the purpose?

Not necessarily. It arguably suggests that the train might be achieving its purpose if it is being pushed into a higher bucket because of load factors. If the tickets on the nonstop are selling for an extra $30 due to the faster runtime (and incidental improvements in amenities) I would argue that the train is doing what it is intended to do (particularly if it is diverting WAS-NYP folks off of 2172 and thereby freeing up space for PHL/NWK-STM/NHV/BOS pax.

 

[Thirdrail7]

I'm not sure 2401 is pulling its weight so I suspect they may tinker with the southbound schedule in the near future.

 

[neroden]

We'll see how much tinkering they do before admitting that a nonstop is unlikely ever to pull its weight...

 

[OBS]

We'll see how much tinkering they do before admitting that a nonstop is unlikely ever to pull its weight...

Exactly...It didn't work the first two (or three) times they tried it.

 

[the_traveler]

They think a non-stop will work, but having food service on eastern trains “costs too much”!

 

[Devil's Advocate]

I don't think express service is fundamentally flawed or undesirable. Japanese railroads charge a substantial premium for nonstop service, and many passengers are only too happy to pay the surcharge, but they also use genuine HSR trains on proper HSR tracks. My guess is that factors such as the NEC's winding route, the Acela's heavier weight, and the restricted-tilt track clearance are working against this service becoming viable. Maybe they'll get more traction with Acela 2.

 

[chrsjrcj]

I agree. DC to NYC would need to be true HSR for Amtrak to make up a greater market share, and actually have the demand needed for non-stop service. It appears to just not be viable under existing conditions.

 

[Thirdrail7]

I think the demand is there now. It is about timing and that is one thing about this airline group, they are not committed to traditional schedules. You may see a train moved to afternoons later in the week when people are leaving NY to WAS while keeping the morning train earlier in the week when a lot of people are heading to WAS.

It is similar to what they did with 151. It only runs in the morning to WAS on MON-TUE and 127 runs in the afternoon on WED, THU, and FRI.

Part of the problem is a lot of business travelers don't necessarily travel downtown to downtown since they live in the suburbs. Another part of the problem is the price, which the average passenger probably wouldn't want to pay. You could easily run a regional nonstop or two if you didn't have to pay through the nose.

Meanwhile, 2402 manages on Mon-TUE and thrives on THU-FRI even though you have extra service out of WAS on train 134 (Thu-FRI only) and 80, which carries local travel on THU, FRI and SUN.

 

[west point]

We are ignoring the possibilities of the non stops reducing their schedule times. There may be a reduction when the present constant tension CAT work is finished. That of course is subject to FRA approval and track up grades as well. The biggest problem for any significant reduction in times are WASH - PHL on the 2 and 3 track segments. There is always the problem of MARC slowing the non stops due to its operating in same direction as the non stops.

 

[MARC Rider]

I don't think express service is fundamentally flawed or undesirable. Japanese railroads charge a substantial premium for nonstop service, and many passengers are only too happy to pay the surcharge, but they also use genuine HSR trains on proper HSR tracks. My guess is that factors such as the NEC's winding route, the Acela's heavier weight, and the restricted-tilt track clearance are working against this service becoming viable. Maybe they'll get more traction with Acela 2.

How much faster do you think a NEC service would have to be in order to be viable? The Nozomi on the Tokaido Shinkansen makes 4 intermediate stops and averages about 135 mph end-to-end for its 320 mile route between Tokyo and Osaka. Most Acelas make 4 intermediate stops between New York and Washington and average about 80 mph.

Amtrak already had 75% of the public-transportation market between New York and Washington, which means that even the "slow" Acelas compete pretty well with airlines. They're already faster than driving; the limits to market share are probably the fact that most people live in suburbia and thus all trips involves cars, and that the fares (even for the Northeast Regionals) are kind of high compared to the incremental cost of driving, especially when more than one person is taking the trip.

I've always thought that increasing the top speed isn't the necessary improvement as much as removing bottlenecks and keeping the system in a state of good repair. And, of course, the more frequent, the better, plus more connections to suburban locations, which might encourage people to leave their cars closer to home.

 

[neroden]

The financial comparison we're looking at here is how much you can charge for a non-stop train vs. how much you can charge for a *stopping* train. And I am quite certain that on the NEC the revenue you can get from business from Philadelphia, Trenton, Baltimore etc. (where the airlines are quite uncompetitive) ends up outweighing any additional surcharge you can get from the DC-NY passengers who have an airline alternative. Consider one DC-NY ticket vs. a NY-PHL ticket and a PHL-DC ticket, basically.

There are certainly places and times where nonstop service can be commercially viable. I don't think this is it. They've tried it before and it hasn't panned out, and I see no demographic change which would make it pan out.

Nonstop service starts to make sense when your service supply has saturated the demand from the intermediate points. Philadelphia demand is not saturated, from what I can tell.

 

[west point]

Neroden: What access do you have to ridership figures ?. I would expect that we need to have the rider ships from the previous year for the 1/2 hour before and after the time for the now non stop. Take them this year and add in the non stop NYP <> WASH and see if they total more this year. Then also how many times previous year the 2 regular trips sold out compared to the present year's all 3 trips.
If the present year's trips have less sold outs then maybe your intermediate stations pairs have more passengers ? Intermediate passenger trips need examination with a factor of overall Acela trips increase year over year.

 

[neroden]

I don't have access to Amtrak's internal data, and I don't have data granular enough to know for sure.

Partly I'm working from the well-known phenomenon that buying a NYP-PHL ticket and a PHL-WAS ticket gives Amtrak more revenue than buying a NYP-WAS ticket (this is true for almost all city triplets in the country essentially always, for a number of reasons -- though the "long trip discount" varies in size).

if they can jack up the nonstop prices enough to counteract this effect *and* still fill the train, then fine, the non-stop is preferable.

Partly I'm working from the fact that they've tried this before, it didn't work out well, and the market hasn't changed that much. If, for instance, the Philly market had shrunk a lot, or Philly-DC had better airplane service than NYC-DC (it's the other way around) it might be plausible.

 

[RebelRider]

Amtrak is mixing up the Acela Non-Stop schedule. Effective March 19, on Thursdays and Fridays only the Non-Stop will operate as 2403 departing New York at 3:25pm, arriving WAS at 6:01pm. No changes Monday through Wednesday to the morning non-stop service.

 

[Thirdrail7]

Amtrak is mixing up the Acela Non-Stop schedule. Effective March 19, on Thursdays and Fridays only the Non-Stop will operate as 2403 departing New York at 3:25pm, arriving WAS at 6:01pm. No changes Monday through Wednesday to the morning non-stop service.

How did I make such an accurate guess?

You may see a train moved to afternoons later in the week when people are leaving NY to WAS while keeping the morning train earlier in the week when a lot of people are heading to WAS.

For my next bag of tricks, I'm going to guess that an Acela that used top leave BOS Mon-Fri will only operate Mon-Thu?

 

[Bob Dylan]

Coming soon, a " Modified Non-Stop Schedule" with a Stop in Philly.

Then Express Acelas NYP-WAS with Limitred Stops on the NEC!( Willnington,Baltimore)

 

[Acela150]

How did I make such an accurate guess?
For my next bag of tricks, I'm going to guess that an Acela that used top leave BOS Mon-Fri will only operate Mon-Thu?

Confirmed. 2151 will now operate Monday to Thursday. 2111 will fill it's NYP-WAS slot on Friday's and 2157 will operate on Friday's departing South Station at 8am. 2117 will also be Monday to Thursday with 2157 taking it's slot on Friday.

 

[Thirdrail7]

The non-stop service is canceled from 3/10 to 5/26.

 

[Bob Dylan]

The non-stop service is canceled from 3/10 to 5/26.

What a Shock!!

 

[user 14106]

Anyone care to place a wager on if it will actually return?

 

[Bob Dylan]

Anyone care to place a wager on if it will actually return?

Somewhere Far Far Away in an Alternate Universe....