Ryan
Court Jester
Lounge cars don't generate revenue.
Auto Train Cuts
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You could fool me considering how some here have said they would not ride the AT since they removed the lounge.
It seems many have been fooled.
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Devil's Advocate
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If it's true that the Auto-Train is mainly used by the elderly then future revenue could end up falling substantially as the snow bird baby boomers that currently support it begin to pass away en mass. Does the extra lounge car have any chance of returning during the slow season or is this a permanent change with no relation to actual bookings?
jis
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Yeah, but retirement from the Northeast to Florida has been a rolling phenomenon for many decades and it does not look like that trend will abate anytime soon. 
Those in their middle ages in the Northeast will get older at about the same rate that the older retirees in Florida pass away. The net flow from Northeast to Florida has remained pretty constant and is likely to continue to be so -until of course neroden's projections come true in the 22nd century when Florida (and substantial parts of New york City) disappear into the Atlantic Ocean.
Those in their middle ages in the Northeast will get older at about the same rate that the older retirees in Florida pass away. The net flow from Northeast to Florida has remained pretty constant and is likely to continue to be so -until of course neroden's projections come true in the 22nd century when Florida (and substantial parts of New york City) disappear into the Atlantic Ocean. It appears that any loss of clientele has been made up by other people taking the AT. Which is what Amtrak was presumably banking on when they implemented the service changes to get the AT closer to true break-even, if not turn a small fully loaded surplus by the end of the FY.
The AT ridership and revenue numbers in the December 2014 monthly report for the first quarter of FY2015:
AT for Oct-Dec 2014: ridership +3.4%, revenue +9.3%
Route Performance report for Oct-Dec 2014:
total revenue = $20.5 million
total cost excl OPEB (pension benefits), PRJ (project), and APT asset allocation = $20.7 million
Loss = $0.2 million
OPEB, PRJ costs = $0.7 million
Fully Allocated loss = $1.0 million
With an additional revenue car for the remainder of the FY (from whenever it was or will be added), the AT could possibly show a fully allocated small surplus for FY15, even with all of Amtrak's overhead loaded on. Not bad at all.
jis
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They usually run with a total length in the low 40s. They can go upto 50.
It did make a small one for December, reducing the contribution loss from $1.2 million to $1.0 million. 105% fare box recovery for the month of December before OPEBs and whatnot.
FormerOBS
Conductor
My information may not be current. However, the last time I asked, I was told the agreement between CSX and Amtrak stipulates a maximum of fifty cars. I have heard that this includes the locomotives, and I have heard that it does not include them. Not sure about that. I also understand that the FRA has weighed in on the issue and agrees with the fifty car limit. Each bilevel auto carrier can hold 10 vehicles, so count the auto carriers, multiply by ten, and that's the train's automobile capacity. The number of auto carriers can vary from day to day. Sometimes several carriers will run empty or with a partial load because the railroad cars must be moved to the other terminal because they'll be needed on the next run in the opposite direction.
Passenger loads have been in the neighborhood of 700 pax on some recent runs. Employees I have talked with are not sure how many people may have stopped riding the train because of the changes. Since the train handles repeat riders on a one-year cycle, many employees agree that a true understanding of the possible alienation of past customers can't be gained until the changes have been in effect for at least a year. One thing is certain: You don't have to spend money on advertising in order to keep the veteran customers because they have come back year after year. But if you alienate them and drive them away, you have to spend plenty to attract new riders to replace them.
Passenger loads have been in the neighborhood of 700 pax on some recent runs. Employees I have talked with are not sure how many people may have stopped riding the train because of the changes. Since the train handles repeat riders on a one-year cycle, many employees agree that a true understanding of the possible alienation of past customers can't be gained until the changes have been in effect for at least a year. One thing is certain: You don't have to spend money on advertising in order to keep the veteran customers because they have come back year after year. But if you alienate them and drive them away, you have to spend plenty to attract new riders to replace them.
B
Bus Nut
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Paulus, if the changes happened in March, 2014, it would help to compare 2013, 2014 and 2015.
Because of the booking one year out I think next summer will be the real acid test. Likely Amtrak already knows what they are facing but we won't know until we've seen the monthly reports. ^_^
Because of the booking one year out I think next summer will be the real acid test. Likely Amtrak already knows what they are facing but we won't know until we've seen the monthly reports. ^_^
I'm not so sure about that.....the large part of the Auto Train demographic whose current generation have abandoned their traditional past generation summering in the 'Catskills', now seem to be choosing the Carolina's (or other places), to retire to instead of Florida, in increasingly larger numbers......Yeah, but retirement from the Northeast to Florida has been a rolling phenomenon for many decades and it does not look like that trend will abate anytime soon.
FormerOBS
Conductor
At this point, baby boomers are among the retirees using the Auto Train, but the dominant group is still the previous generation. The very first baby boomers were born in January, 1946, so they turned 65 four years ago. They are relatively new Florida snowbirds, so they do not dominate Auto Train's clientele --- yet. This is sure to change. The question remains as to whether this growing demographic will replace the older customers, or abandon the train.
Families still constitute a fairly large share of Auto Train's customer base. Their large vans and SUV's are carried at a higher price. Getting kids on the train can help them to learn about train travel and become future train travelers. The train also eliminates the need for a long and tedious drive with a carload of bored kids. Traditionally, the parents have traveled at regular rates, with bargain rates for the kids. Summertime is naturally the busiest time for family travels, but holidays and other times can be busy times for families too. It remains to be seen whether the changes will affect families' decisions about whether to take the Auto Train.
Tom
Families still constitute a fairly large share of Auto Train's customer base. Their large vans and SUV's are carried at a higher price. Getting kids on the train can help them to learn about train travel and become future train travelers. The train also eliminates the need for a long and tedious drive with a carload of bored kids. Traditionally, the parents have traveled at regular rates, with bargain rates for the kids. Summertime is naturally the busiest time for family travels, but holidays and other times can be busy times for families too. It remains to be seen whether the changes will affect families' decisions about whether to take the Auto Train.
Tom
Allypet
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I think FormerOBS is correct. It will take at least a year to see if it affects ridership. I know this isn't scientific, but last year I took 8 Auto train trips in 13 months. I have always enjoy a walk into to lounge car to have a drink and a snack to pass the time. Since the changes I couldn't find a seat in the lounge car, and after several trips I gave up. I became a virtual prisoner in my bedroom. As a result I did not book any trips on the AT this year. While this is one persons opinion, it could be true for a lot of people, but the end result is I will not be riding this year.
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Devil's Advocate
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I'm surprised that lighting was the focus of the power saving program since you would think the HVAC hardware is responsible for the vast majority of power usage and would have had the greatest possible impact if replaced with a more modern and efficient design.
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Ryan
Court Jester
Agreed, but I'll bet that swapping lighting was a heck of a lot easier.
It would, but it's a pain in the butt to go through it all.
FormerOBS
Conductor
I spoke with another Auto Train employee and he said that he's been seeing more and more Canadian license plates on the automobiles. This is a trend that had started before I retired, and it is evidently increasing. I wonder whether Amtrak, and specifically Auto Train, has increased its advertising in the Canadian market.
My friend isn't sure how many of our past customers have been lost, but he notes that there are plenty of new customers to replace them. The real question is whether these new customers will become repeat customers.
In most cases, employees riding in sleepers while traveling on their employees pass, cannot be accommodated in the sleeper diner. They must eat in the coach diner, which is at the opposite end of the train. The food is pretty much the same, but it's a L-O-N-G walk.
Some of our past customers will continue to use the Auto Train, no matter how much the service is degraded. My friend said if you're 80 years old and have a summer home in the North and a winter home in Florida, you have to get from one to the other somehow; and driving that far is out of the question for a lot of Auto Train's customers. Since a car is needed at both ends of the line, and it costs too much to own two cars that will each be dormant for half of the year, the Auto Train is the only option they see. Note that many of them can't or won't fly, so shipping the car by truck doesn't work either.
It seems like every time I talk with one of my old co-workers, I hear "You picked the right time to retire" or "I wish I could retire like you did", or some variant of that same theme.
Tom
My friend isn't sure how many of our past customers have been lost, but he notes that there are plenty of new customers to replace them. The real question is whether these new customers will become repeat customers.
In most cases, employees riding in sleepers while traveling on their employees pass, cannot be accommodated in the sleeper diner. They must eat in the coach diner, which is at the opposite end of the train. The food is pretty much the same, but it's a L-O-N-G walk.
Some of our past customers will continue to use the Auto Train, no matter how much the service is degraded. My friend said if you're 80 years old and have a summer home in the North and a winter home in Florida, you have to get from one to the other somehow; and driving that far is out of the question for a lot of Auto Train's customers. Since a car is needed at both ends of the line, and it costs too much to own two cars that will each be dormant for half of the year, the Auto Train is the only option they see. Note that many of them can't or won't fly, so shipping the car by truck doesn't work either.
It seems like every time I talk with one of my old co-workers, I hear "You picked the right time to retire" or "I wish I could retire like you did", or some variant of that same theme.
Tom
But....do you agree with them?
Aren't there times when you wish you were back at work?
Especially if new routes open, new equipment go into service, etc.?
Interesting question! IINM Tom has expressed in other posts that it was time to retire, that OBS work is for younger folks since it takes it' s toll in many ways over the years!
In my case , I do miss my co- workers, but don' t miss having to go to work!
The only draw back to retirement ( I' m a retired Government employee that lives in an increasingly expensive city) is having a limited income! (I do work @ partime jobs to help pay for my rail travel and living expenses!)
I think that Tom would rather use his rail pass to ride Trains, kick back and leave the service to others!
In my case , I do miss my co- workers, but don' t miss having to go to work!
The only draw back to retirement ( I' m a retired Government employee that lives in an increasingly expensive city) is having a limited income! (I do work @ partime jobs to help pay for my rail travel and living expenses!)
I think that Tom would rather use his rail pass to ride Trains, kick back and leave the service to others!
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FormerOBS
Conductor
You're reading my mind, Jim.
I do miss it in some ways. I had a lot of fun with both passengers and crew members. I always said there was no point in showing up for work at all if you couldn't have some fun doing it. But after each trip I seemed to be more and more tired. Long hours and short sleep. Being on your feet almost all the time and constantly working against the motion of the train. These things make it pretty rough after two hip replacements. I'd rather leave now while I still have my health and can enjoy my retirement.
Anyway, younger people need the jobs. Technology is making it harder and harder for youngsters to find jobs. Entry level jobs like grocery store cashier, are being lost to self-checkout, which I refuse to use.
I was expecting my retirement income to be higher, but I'll get by.
New equipment probably wouldn't be assigned to my train, so that wouldn't be a factor.
So I'll be happy to see you on the train some time, but somebody else can make your bed and serve your dinner.
I do miss it in some ways. I had a lot of fun with both passengers and crew members. I always said there was no point in showing up for work at all if you couldn't have some fun doing it. But after each trip I seemed to be more and more tired. Long hours and short sleep. Being on your feet almost all the time and constantly working against the motion of the train. These things make it pretty rough after two hip replacements. I'd rather leave now while I still have my health and can enjoy my retirement.
Anyway, younger people need the jobs. Technology is making it harder and harder for youngsters to find jobs. Entry level jobs like grocery store cashier, are being lost to self-checkout, which I refuse to use.
I was expecting my retirement income to be higher, but I'll get by.
New equipment probably wouldn't be assigned to my train, so that wouldn't be a factor.
So I'll be happy to see you on the train some time, but somebody else can make your bed and serve your dinner.
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FormerOBS
Conductor
No, that last post wasn't edited. The system wouldn't accept my changes.
To answer the question, the answer is yes, I do agree with them. The issues mentioned above are important, but the consensus is that it's harder to take pride in your work nowadays. That would be pretty demoralizing for me.
Tom
To answer the question, the answer is yes, I do agree with them. The issues mentioned above are important, but the consensus is that it's harder to take pride in your work nowadays. That would be pretty demoralizing for me.
Tom
I don't understand why Amtrak doesn't offer a premium level of service for a premium price. I was talking to a manager of a very successful tourist operation. He said they just break even on the coach business, but make money on the premium services. Why doesn't A-T at least try it? A sleeper or two with it's own diner-lounge offering Pullman co. level services - at a price. I suspect there are enough high roller retirees that would jump at it.
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I wonder if the new Prestige features on the Canadian are meant for this purpose...
Excellent idea Palmland, but the "Mica Managers" in Congress would have a stroke if Amtrak tried to implement "Luxury Service" such as the infamous $25 Amburgers!
Luxury travel is reserved for Billionaires and their puppets, Members of Congress!
Luxury travel is reserved for Billionaires and their puppets, Members of Congress!
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