Auto Train Cuts

[tonys96]

While Amtrak is trying to cut costs on the AT, at least they are thinking about the kids! Well, from May 28 to August 28 anyway. Amtrak press release on a $39 kids fare for the AT.

WASHINGTON – Amtrak Auto Train is offering a special one-way fare for children ages 2-12 to travel the rails this summer from May 28 – Aug. 28.

Book travel now to May 16 and the kids fare is $39 when accompanied by an adult for coach travel on the Auto Train only; no sleeper upgrades permitted. Use promotional code H246. Terms and conditions apply.

Lots of lost revenue there...revenue that might save jobs and/or routes.......these seats might be filled with full fare paying pax. And why is it on just this route? Shouldn't ALL routes be treated equally? No more amenity kits on CS and EB....some here said that was OK, cuz they (and the wine & Cheese) are not offered on ALL routes, so that was just peachy keen to remove them from the others....where is the OUTRAGE about this AT promo?????

 

[SarahZ]

No outrage here. Amtrak offers sales on occasion. We in the Midwest enjoy 20% off sales all the time.

I also like the heads-up. Now I know when to avoid the Auto Train.

 

[tonys96]

No outrage here. Amtrak offers sales on occasion. We in the Midwest enjoy 20% off sales all the time.

But, will it generate more revenue for Amtrak, ensuring service continues?

Charging adult regular child's fares for teenagers children will increase revenue, yes. More revenue = more money for operating costs = service continues.

 

[jebr]

No outrage here. Amtrak offers sales on occasion. We in the Midwest enjoy 20% off sales all the time.

But, will it generate more revenue for Amtrak, ensuring service continues?

Charging adult regular child's fares for teenagers children will increase revenue, yes. More revenue = more money for operating costs = service continues.

Unless Amtrak believes this will bring more people on board (and more parents who are paying full fare) to offset the discounted children's fares (which are coach only and more limited with Amtrak's change in who qualifies for child's fare.)

We'll see how it plays out in the numbers.

 

[tonys96]

No outrage here. Amtrak offers sales on occasion. We in the Midwest enjoy 20% off sales all the time.

But, will it generate more revenue for Amtrak, ensuring service continues?

Charging adult regular child's fares for teenagers children will increase revenue, yes. More revenue = more money for operating costs = service continues.

Unless Amtrak believes this will bring more people on board (and more parents who are paying full fare) to offset the discounted children's fares (which are coach only and more limited with Amtrak's change in who qualifies for child's fare.)

We'll see how it plays out in the numbers.

Maybe....but then why did they change the age requirement for the half price kids fares? Wouldn't your logic say that the higher age limit could attract more full fare paying adults? Others (not me) have postulated that these 12-15 year olds were taking away seats from full fare payers, seems like this sale would do the same thing.

Please understand that I am just fine with this sale, and all others....getting more riders is the best way to cut operating deficits, getting more customers will always have more profit potential than cutting back on services offered, but Amtrak seems to be a bit schizophrenic, cutting stuff here, raising fares there, then offers extremely low fares to a single group, gives free trips to another single group, etc. Just looks like they cannot decide on a single methodology of operating.

It might be said that considering the fixed costs of the AT, that putting a butt in the seat, even at a low fare, is better than the seat being empty......I do not know the AT load factor in the summer months....and more butts in seats might mean more F&B revenue, also. But in another thread about AT cutbacks, it seemed like the AT was crowded, no room in the lounge, etc. I might have misread that thread, wouldn't be the first time. But if the load factor is high, why the need to cut fares?

YMMV.

 

[Ryan]

The load factor isn't high both directions year round. There are slower seasons.

Summer time is "take the kids to vacation at Disney" season. Cheap kids fares get Mom and Dad (and their car) on the train and off of 95.

 

[SarahZ]

The load factor isn't high both directions year round. There are slower seasons.

Summer time is "take the kids to vacation at Disney" season. Cheap kids fares get Mom and Dad (and their car) on the train and off of 95.

This.

Sales are timed to increase business, not take a hit financially. The Midwest trains tend to see sales during the winter, when people are like, "Hell if I'm going to Chicago. F that. It's 20 degrees outside." Give them 20% off adult fares and half-price off kids, though, and they'll gladly escape Michigan for the weekend to enjoy some time at Shedd and Adler. It's better than having the kids sit in the house bored out of their minds.

For the AT, it makes sense to offer those sales in the summer, as they're smack between the busy snowbird periods in spring and fall. As Ryan said, this will help get people off the highway and onto a train.

So, in a way, it does increase revenue. If ridership increases by 40% during a 20% off sale, they've made money they wouldn't have normally made. (Remember, these people are also buying beverages and snacks, especially on the corridor trains.)

 

[tonys96]

The load factor isn't high both directions year round. There are slower seasons.

Summer time is "take the kids to vacation at Disney" season. Cheap kids fares get Mom and Dad (and their car) on the train and off of 95.

OK.

Is there a way to see the monthly load factors somewhere?

Maybe this type of lower fares at off-peak times for kids scenario would work on other routes? Like the Eagle/Sunset in summer? The AT was +3.5% in ridership in FY 13 over FY 12, while the Eagle was down 1%, yet I have not seen any end to end sales for anyone on the Eagle lately.........

 

[tonys96]

The load factor isn't high both directions year round. There are slower seasons.

Summer time is "take the kids to vacation at Disney" season. Cheap kids fares get Mom and Dad (and their car) on the train and off of 95.

This.

Sales are timed to increase business, not take a hit financially. The Midwest trains tend to see sales during the winter, when people are like, "Hell if I'm going to Chicago. F that. It's 20 degrees outside." Give them 20% off adult fares and half-price off kids, though, and they'll gladly escape Michigan for the weekend to enjoy some time at Shedd and Adler. It's better than having the kids sit in the house bored out of their minds.

For the AT, it makes sense to offer those sales in the summer, as they're smack between the busy snowbird periods in spring and fall. As Ryan said, this will help get people off the highway and onto a train.

So, in a way, it does increase revenue. If ridership increases by 40% during a 20% off sale, they've made money they wouldn't have normally made. (Remember, these people are also buying beverages and snacks, especially on the corridor trains.)

Getting people off a highway is not part of Amtrak's mission, is it? I seriously doubt this will increase ridership by 40%, that is a false premise.

RE: Give them 20% off adult fares and half-price off kids, though, and they'll gladly escape Michigan for the weekend ...

I agree! But wouldn't leaving the kids fares available up to 15 y/o also do the same thing?

 

[Allypet]

I have a feeling that maybe the bookings have dropped off slightly, or the demand they though was there really isn't. They removed the sleeper lounge car to add a 5th coach car. Since this offer excludes upgrades to sleepers, it is obviously aimed at coach class and their newly add 5th car.

 

[tonys96]

I have a feeling that maybe the bookings have dropped off slightly, or the demand they though was there really isn't. They removed the sleeper lounge car to add a 5th coach car. Since this offer excludes upgrades to sleepers, it is obviously aimed at coach class and their newly add 5th car.

Agreed. Maybe it is a loss leader for hopes of future sales.

 

[jebr]

The load factor isn't high both directions year round. There are slower seasons.

Summer time is "take the kids to vacation at Disney" season. Cheap kids fares get Mom and Dad (and their car) on the train and off of 95.

This.

Sales are timed to increase business, not take a hit financially. The Midwest trains tend to see sales during the winter, when people are like, "Hell if I'm going to Chicago. F that. It's 20 degrees outside." Give them 20% off adult fares and half-price off kids, though, and they'll gladly escape Michigan for the weekend to enjoy some time at Shedd and Adler. It's better than having the kids sit in the house bored out of their minds.

For the AT, it makes sense to offer those sales in the summer, as they're smack between the busy snowbird periods in spring and fall. As Ryan said, this will help get people off the highway and onto a train.

So, in a way, it does increase revenue. If ridership increases by 40% during a 20% off sale, they've made money they wouldn't have normally made. (Remember, these people are also buying beverages and snacks, especially on the corridor trains.)

Getting people off a highway is not part of Amtrak's mission, is it? I seriously doubt this will increase ridership by 40%, that is a false premise.

RE: Give them 20% off adult fares and half-price off kids, though, and they'll gladly escape Michigan for the weekend ...

I agree! But wouldn't leaving the kids fares available up to 15 y/o also do the same thing?

Having the children be up to 15 doesn't target specific times; it's always there. A special lets them target a specific slow ridership time. (It's also a lot easier to have a fare sale than to have policy changes every couple months or tied to specific trains.)

 

[Allypet]

In the 2012 FY PIP, I found the 2 reasons for the 50 car limit. I posted them below, and I found the idea of a pet car very interesting if they can exceed that:

Expanded Consist Size

The most significant impediment to improving ridership and revenue, along with financial performance, is the long-standing 50 car consist limit. Being able to operate trains that exceed this limit would immediately set in motion a plan to increase revenue by at least $2mm - $3mm per year, and would also allow us the opportunity to fully consider the possibility of a pet car on this train. Overcoming this situation would require successful resolution of two issues:

At any consist level above 50 cars, there is an unacceptably high risk of HEP failure during the trip. HEP power for the train comes from one locomotive, and its capacity is at risk of being overloaded if the passenger consist exceeds 16 cars. A possible option is the development of a power car, which could support the HEP capability of the existing locomotive. The challenge with this issue is the cost of the car, and whether the operation of this power car would add costs that would mitigate the revenue benefit. We are continuing to evaluate this option, and a decision will not be made until sometime in FY13.

The second issue is the ability of Amtrak to safely operate more than 50 cars as it relates to braking. Longer trains make it more difficult to send a signal to the rear cars to apply the brakes, and Amtrak’s System Road Foreman has determined that a train length over 50 cars with traditional air brakes would not be a prudent approach. Amtrak is looking at various electronic braking systems that could address this issue, and hopes to test them during FY13.

 

[tonys96]

The load factor isn't high both directions year round. There are slower seasons.

Summer time is "take the kids to vacation at Disney" season. Cheap kids fares get Mom and Dad (and their car) on the train and off of 95.

This.

Sales are timed to increase business, not take a hit financially. The Midwest trains tend to see sales during the winter, when people are like, "Hell if I'm going to Chicago. F that. It's 20 degrees outside." Give them 20% off adult fares and half-price off kids, though, and they'll gladly escape Michigan for the weekend to enjoy some time at Shedd and Adler. It's better than having the kids sit in the house bored out of their minds.

For the AT, it makes sense to offer those sales in the summer, as they're smack between the busy snowbird periods in spring and fall. As Ryan said, this will help get people off the highway and onto a train.

So, in a way, it does increase revenue. If ridership increases by 40% during a 20% off sale, they've made money they wouldn't have normally made. (Remember, these people are also buying beverages and snacks, especially on the corridor trains.)

Getting people off a highway is not part of Amtrak's mission, is it? I seriously doubt this will increase ridership by 40%, that is a false premise.

RE: Give them 20% off adult fares and half-price off kids, though, and they'll gladly escape Michigan for the weekend ...

I agree! But wouldn't leaving the kids fares available up to 15 y/o also do the same thing?

Having the children be up to 15 doesn't target specific times; it's always there. A special lets them target a specific slow ridership time. (It's also a lot easier to have a fare sale than to have policy changes every couple months or tied to specific trains.)

True! However, if the desired result is getting butts in the seats, why not add older teens to the sale? Or adults for that matter? Maybe buy one full fare adult, get one 50% off?

 

[tonys96]

In the 2012 FY PIP, I found the 2 reasons for the 50 car limit. I posted them below, and I found the idea of a pet car very interesting if they can exceed that:

Expanded Consist Size

The most significant impediment to improving ridership and revenue, along with financial performance, is the long-standing 50 car consist limit. Being able to operate trains that exceed this limit would immediately set in motion a plan to increase revenue by at least $2mm - $3mm per year, and would also allow us the opportunity to fully consider the possibility of a pet car on this train. Overcoming this situation would require successful resolution of two issues:

At any consist level above 50 cars, there is an unacceptably high risk of HEP failure during the trip. HEP power for the train comes from one locomotive, and its capacity is at risk of being overloaded if the passenger consist exceeds 16 cars. A possible option is the development of a power car, which could support the HEP capability of the existing locomotive. The challenge with this issue is the cost of the car, and whether the operation of this power car would add costs that would mitigate the revenue benefit. We are continuing to evaluate this option, and a decision will not be made until sometime in FY13.

The second issue is the ability of Amtrak to safely operate more than 50 cars as it relates to braking. Longer trains make it more difficult to send a signal to the rear cars to apply the brakes, and Amtrak’s System Road Foreman has determined that a train length over 50 cars with traditional air brakes would not be a prudent approach. Amtrak is looking at various electronic braking systems that could address this issue, and hopes to test them during FY13.

Interesting. FY 13 is long past, I wonder what has come of this?

 

[jebr]

Having the children be up to 15 doesn't target specific times; it's always there. A special lets them target a specific slow ridership time. (It's also a lot easier to have a fare sale than to have policy changes every couple months or tied to specific trains.)

True! However, if the desired result is getting butts in the seats, why not add older teens to the sale?

I bolded the part of my previous post that answers your question.

 

[SarahZ]

40% was an example I used in order to illustrate my point, not a prediction.

 

[tonys96]

Having the children be up to 15 doesn't target specific times; it's always there. A special lets them target a specific slow ridership time. (It's also a lot easier to have a fare sale than to have policy changes every couple months or tied to specific trains.)

True! However, if the desired result is getting butts in the seats, why not add older teens to the sale?

I bolded the part of my previous post that answers your question.

That did not answer my question, but I can see how you think that it does. And under normal operations I would agree with you.

A sale can be for anything the seller wants it to be. For instance, a sale can be for 50% off of a companion ticket, a sale can be for buy one get one free, a sale can be for pay full fare and get one free drink coupon, etc. Sales are not limited by policy statements, they are stand alone, and are variances from stated policy.

Stated policy is 50% off for kids fares, but this sale lowers that to a specific amount. The sale supersedes the stated policy

Again, I must reiterate, I am just fine with this sale. I hope it helps fill each and every AT this summer!

I just wonder why this train at this time, considering all the cuts in service/hikes in fares on the system.

The fact that it may be to draw attention to the extra coach space added to the consist makes perfect sense.

 

[tonys96]

40% was an example I used in order to illustrate my point, not a prediction.

OK.

 

[Ryan]

The load factor isn't high both directions year round. There are slower seasons.

Summer time is "take the kids to vacation at Disney" season. Cheap kids fares get Mom and Dad (and their car) on the train and off of 95.

OK.
Is there a way to see the monthly load factors somewhere?

Not directly.

Easier for the Auto Train, since there are only two endpoints.

You can see ridership, but it isn't broken out by direction. Since the ridership tends to be highly directional (s/b in fall, n/b in winter), what looks like 50% loads are much closer to 90% one way and 10% the other way.

Looking at other trains where there's a large number of possible station combinations, and it gets a lot more complicated.

You can look at fare buckets and get feel for them based on ticket prices, but overall it's a pretty inexact science.

 

[jebr]

Having the children be up to 15 doesn't target specific times; it's always there. A special lets them target a specific slow ridership time. (It's also a lot easier to have a fare sale than to have policy changes every couple months or tied to specific trains.)

True! However, if the desired result is getting butts in the seats, why not add older teens to the sale?

I bolded the part of my previous post that answers your question.

That did not answer my question, but I can see how you think that it does. And under normal operations I would agree with you.

A sale can be for anything the seller wants it to be. For instance, a sale can be for 50% off of a companion ticket, a sale can be for buy one get one free, a sale can be for pay full fare and get one free drink coupon, etc. Sales are not limited by policy statements, they are stand alone, and are variances from stated policy.

Stated policy is 50% off for kids fares, but this sale lowers that to a specific amount. The sale supersedes the stated policy

Again, I must reiterate, I am just fine with this sale. I hope it helps fill each and every AT this summer!

I just wonder why this train at this time, considering all the cuts in service/hikes in fares on the system.

The fact that it may be to draw attention to the extra coach space added to the consist makes perfect sense.

Because, likely, of the reasons Ryan stated.

Also, I'm sorry I wasn't clearer in my original point. While both technically supersede the stated policy, it's a lot easier for Amtrak to have a fare sale than have a sale that changes the age of what Amtrak defines as "children" and give them the child rate. It's easier to understand, easier for people to see (they automatically see the discounted rate, instead of having to remember that a child is up to 15 on this route but not on others,) and easier to revert back (the price goes up instead of having to remember that kids are now only up to 12 again.) Plus, people understand a price sale and don't expect it to always be there, but they may expect a "sale change of policy" to be permanent, as it's much less common for a sale to be framed in such a way.

 

[Anderson]

The load factor isn't high both directions year round. There are slower seasons.

Summer time is "take the kids to vacation at Disney" season. Cheap kids fares get Mom and Dad (and their car) on the train and off of 95.

OK.

Is there a way to see the monthly load factors somewhere?

Maybe this type of lower fares at off-peak times for kids scenario would work on other routes? Like the Eagle/Sunset in summer? The AT was +3.5% in ridership in FY 13 over FY 12, while the Eagle was down 1%, yet I have not seen any end to end sales for anyone on the Eagle lately.........

Through February 2014, I've assumed 1000 pax/day as the rough capacity of the Auto Train (based on 500 pax/train and two trains, one each way). It's true that the number can be a bit over or under this when the train is full, but 1000/day is a good approximation.

In that vein, here's roughly what the numbers sort out to:

Aug 2011: 21,436 (69.1%)
Sep 2011: 16,968 (56.6%)
Oct 2011: 20,048 (64.7%)
Nov 2011: 21,210 (70.7%)
Dec 2011: 22,319 (72.0%)
Jan 2012: 18,135 (58.5%)
Feb 2012: 20,084 (69.3%) *29 days
Mar 2012: 25,923 (83.6%)
Apr 2012: 22,928 (76.4%)
May 2012: 21,202 (68.4%)
Jun 2012: 24,059 (80.2%)
Jul 2012: 26,067 (84.1%)
Aug 2012: 26,172 (84.4%)
Sep 2012: 15,949 (53.2%)
Oct 2012: 19,170 (61.8%)
Nov 2012: 21,177 (70.6%)
Dec 2012: 22,336 (72.1%)
Jan 2013: 21,773 (70.2%)
Feb 2013: 17,735 (63.3%)
Mar 2013: 26,590 (85.8%)
Apr 2013: 20,997 (70.0%)
May 2013: 21,439 (69.2%)
Jun 2013: 24,906 (83.0%)
Jul 2013: 26,453 (85.3%)
Aug 2013: 25,843 (83.4%)
Sep 2013: 16,855 (56.2%)
Oct 2013: 19,815 (63.9%)
Nov 2013: 20,389 (68.0%)
Dec 2013: 23,942 (77.2%)
Jan 2014: 22,375 (72.2%)
Feb 2014: 19,644 (70.2%) *Additional capacity?
Please note that this is quick-and-dirty and does not take into account cancellations. It assumes two trains per day every day, something that isn't always the case. I am going to run another calculation with cancellations taken into account as well, which should raise the load factors somewhat.

 

[tonys96]

The load factor isn't high both directions year round. There are slower seasons.

Summer time is "take the kids to vacation at Disney" season. Cheap kids fares get Mom and Dad (and their car) on the train and off of 95.

OK.
Is there a way to see the monthly load factors somewhere?

Maybe this type of lower fares at off-peak times for kids scenario would work on other routes? Like the Eagle/Sunset in summer? The AT was +3.5% in ridership in FY 13 over FY 12, while the Eagle was down 1%, yet I have not seen any end to end sales for anyone on the Eagle lately.........

Through February 2014, I've assumed 1000 pax/day as the rough capacity of the Auto Train (based on 500 pax/train and two trains, one each way). It's true that the number can be a bit over or under this when the train is full, but 1000/day is a good approximation.
In that vein, here's roughly what the numbers sort out to:

Aug 2011: 21,436 (69.1%)Sep 2011: 16,968 (56.6%)Oct 2011: 20,048 (64.7%)Nov 2011: 21,210 (70.7%)Dec 2011: 22,319 (72.0%)Jan 2012: 18,135 (58.5%)Feb 2012: 20,084 (69.3%) *29 daysMar 2012: 25,923 (83.6%)Apr 2012: 22,928 (76.4%)May 2012: 21,202 (68.4%)Jun 2012: 24,059 (80.2%)Jul 2012: 26,067 (84.1%)Aug 2012: 26,172 (84.4%)Sep 2012: 15,949 (53.2%)Oct 2012: 19,170 (61.8%)Nov 2012: 21,177 (70.6%)Dec 2012: 22,336 (72.1%)Jan 2013: 21,773 (70.2%)Feb 2013: 17,735 (63.3%)Mar 2013: 26,590 (85.8%)Apr 2013: 20,997 (70.0%)May 2013: 21,439 (69.2%)Jun 2013: 24,906 (83.0%)Jul 2013: 26,453 (85.3%)Aug 2013: 25,843 (83.4%)Sep 2013: 16,855 (56.2%)Oct 2013: 19,815 (63.9%)Nov 2013: 20,389 (68.0%)Dec 2013: 23,942 (77.2%)Jan 2014: 22,375 (72.2%)Feb 2014: 19,644 (70.2%) *Additional capacity?Please note that this is quick-and-dirty and does not take into account cancellations. It assumes two trains per day every day, something that isn't always the case. I am going to run another calculation with cancellations taken into account as well, which should raise the load factors somewhat.

Excellent! Thank you so much!
Is this available for other routes? Looks like summer is indeed the busy season already. Not the slow season.

if increasing load is reason for sale, other routes with similar load factors should be in line for same type of sale. Maybe not exactly same sale, but a sale nonetheless.

 

[Ryan]

It's available for all of the routes, you just have to dig through the monthly reports to get them.

With respect to "slow" season, remember what I said about the directionality. Those ~70% numbers in Nov/Dec probably break down more like 100% s/b and 40% n/b.

The 80% numbers over the summer are more balanced, meaning that there's room on the train to try and entice people into filling those seats.

 

[haolerider]

The summer AT load factors have increased since Amtrak began focusing on college students from. FL going north to school & going after families going to DC & VA for sightseeing in the summer.