Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[Brian_tampa]

Scott, they would probably come off of 15th Street at I-4. Yes the Tampa Park Apartments are mired in legal issues now. I guess they could build an elevated structure along 15th and 12th streets until they got to the apartment land. It would be ironic as that site is adjacent to TUS. At this point everything is still up,in the air.

What is a TWDC engineer? I'm also an engineer but on the industrial side. If they choose 417 then I-Drive is eliminated and only WDW can be considered. In any case, a Tampa station would have more potential of RE development than the MCO site. I think Lakeland will get a station before WDW. It is too bad they can't do anything near MCO to help revenue. But they seem to work well with Deseret Ranch along 528 east of MCO. I can see something out there in 10 years. Deseret and FECI are RE developers at heart. That will be the future for Orlando and Brightline.

 

[Scott Orlando]

Totally agree with the Deseret. The amount of property they own is staggering. And they think like Brightline toward development.

Yes, if 417 is the route then a Disney stop would have to be near Celebation and it would require Disney buses and other local transportation to integrate. A lot of ifs. (TWDC - I am a IT design engineer for the overall corporate- as opposed to parks/resorts or business unit like ABC). You probably already know we have the Magical Express bus service (contracted by Mears transport) for direct MCO to your hotel including baggage service...so maybe just for non MCO traffic?

When I suggested the Convention/I Drive that would of course be if the route followed the old HSR route - almost due west from MCO. The 417 route would cheaper to build with a faster transit time and only stop at Lakeland. With FECI oriented towards real estate and transit related development that route seems much more likely.

 

[Anderson]

(1) Remember, not all trains must make all stops. A "Disney-area" stop could be covered by some chunk of trains (possibly biasing towards off-peak hours). Also, pricing discrimination can be used to avoid too much lost revenue. With that being said, Celebration is 19-20 miles from OIA (depending on routing), so it is probably a reasonable distance from the OIA stop to add. Lakeland is another 35 miles or so down the road (so 55-ish miles from OIA) and Tampa another 35-ish miles from there (so close to 90 miles total). That stopping pattern isn't out of sorts with what Brightline has in South Florida as-is (three stations over about 70 miles versus four over 85-90 miles). Adding one or two other stops is also in line with Brightline's (apparent/hinted-at) plans for South Florida (reserving the right to three more stops).

(2) I think that if this project comes to pass, there's a decent chance that a commuter-ish component comes in on both ends. If the tracks are mostly going to be in place regardless, then depending on the routing it might make sense to just contract with Brightline to run a shuttle train service to a transfer station (whether on the same level or elevated where the lines intersect). The 15-30 minute headways proposed as part of SunRail Phase 3, plus a hypothetical 1-2 trains per hour in each direction on Brightline, don't seem to be incompatible if you double-track the line. Bear in mind that Brightline HAS to cross the A-line to get to I-4. The main question is whether the routing used is along SR528 (with the crossover up by Sand Lake Road) or SR417 (with the crossover down by Kissimmee).

I think there are also substantial real estate opportunities for Brightline, especially on the Tampa end. I know that we're talking about downtown, but (almost moreso than in South Florida) there seems to be room for Brightline to get money both coming and going if they can pitch a commuter project to the folks in Tampa while patching together substantial developments around there.

Stepping back, presuming I had a relatively blank check on SunRail's part? If the plan is to run a "connecting shuttle" (and not add a bunch of OIA-downtown trains) and wedge in a "transfer station", I'd have a very serious talk with Brightline about how to combine the projects (and just operate the "phase three" in question as part of Brightline's overall operations). This would go double if the transfer could be done up at Sand Lake Road (though I admit that SR417 may win out due to the direct routing) given the potential to expand upon this.

 

[crescent-zephyr]

If Brightline is smart (and so far they seem VERY smart) they have already been talking to the Disney Company about taking over "Disney's Magical Express" Bus Service from Mears Transportation. A dedicated, branded, high speed train that serves the Orlando airport and Disney property would be a dream for their marketing.

I'm not sure how close the FEC tracks get to Port Canaveral, but Brightline could also operate the Disney World to Disney Cruise Line shuttle as well.

 

[chrsjrcj]

Previously, Disney said they would only direct guests to use the proposed HSR, if it used the 417 route (bypassing I-Drive and SeaWorld). I personally think there is better ridership potential to serving both Disney/Celebration and I-Drive, even if it means Disney doesn't directly tell their guests to use Brightline.

 

[crescent-zephyr]

That was a different system... Brightline isn't planning an I-drive / sea world stop are they?

Im suggesting a direct Airport to Disney train. It would be branded for Disney and go directly to Disney property.

 

[user 1215]

That was a different system... Brightline isn't planning an I-drive / sea world stop are they?

Im suggesting a direct Airport to Disney train. It would be branded for Disney and go directly to Disney property.

They've talked about that for 40 years. A monorail initially...

 

[Caesar La Rock]

^
And the monorail idea essentially died last year on top of that.

 

[cirdan]

(1) Remember, not all trains must make all stops.

This is true.

But as soon as you start dropping stops you lose the ability to have a clockface timetable with the same service at every minute past every hour all day. A dropped stopped also means differing travel times which means the train will be earlier at all subsequent stops totally messing with that neat clockface.predictability

In my view dropping stops only makes sense once you go to a twice hourly service. Then you can have an express and an all stops train. But before you get there, you need the ridership that can make it work.

 

[Anderson]

I think the monorail idea died back in the 80s (there were initially plans to link the TTC at Magic Kingdom to the hotel area out by what is now Disney Springs, among other ideas, but a lot of this went away in the first half of that decade). You're probably thinking of the maglev idea that was, pardon the pun, floated over the last decade (which, while technically set up as a form of monorail, was different from the earlier project).

I was unaware that they had finally put a fork in the maglev proposal down there...not that I'm sorry to see it go (it had always felt like it had far more flash than substance).

And frankly, I think that realistically Disney would have ended up working with the HSR folks in the end either way...trying to force the SR417 route made solid business sense for them (as it would cut out Sea World/Universal from direct access), but once the tracks were in the ground I think they would probably have come around if there was a stop "in the right neighborhood". I find it particularly telling that (presuming I'm reading the discussions correctly) Disney was claiming that they would only have directed their guests to use the train if the train went by the route that actually served WDW less effectively (e.g. a stop down by Celebration is somewhat further out than one over by Disney Springs).

If they try that this time around? Well...given that this is the third segment in the project (rather than the first), Disney would probably be giving up some chunk of business coming from South Florida as well.

Edit: On the "all trains" bit, I agree...though WDW is on the "far side" of Orlando and so it'll be impacted by the nature of the Tampa operation.

 

[crescent-zephyr]

In regards to maglev being more "flash" that's what disney used to be all about. The Disneyland monorail replaced the tomorrowland streamliner train for the novelty of being the first monorail in the western hemisphere.

 

[chrsjrcj]

(1) Remember, not all trains must make all stops.

This is true.

But as soon as you start dropping stops you lose the ability to have a clockface timetable with the same service at every minute past every hour all day. A dropped stopped also means differing travel times which means the train will be earlier at all subsequent stops totally messing with that neat clockface.predictability

In my view dropping stops only makes sense once you go to a twice hourly service. Then you can have an express and an all stops train. But before you get there, you need the ridership that can make it work.

Good luck adding additional trains on the FEC with the New River crossing in Fort Lauderdale. The chance of any commuter rail service on the entire length of the FEC died when Brightline Built their Fort Lauderdale station.

 

[jis]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-ed-high-speed-rail-key-to-florida-future-20180814-story.html#

 

[jis]

Interesting. Maybe the trick is to get people in positions of power sufficiently invested personally in passenger rail and stuff ancillary to it to secure the future of passenger rail. Afterall that is the way this country appears to run Coming to think of it, wasn't that always the case throughout the heyday of railroads?

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/08/16/rick-scott-and-wife-invested-in-parent-company-bidding-on-tampa-high-speed-rail/

 

[chrsjrcj]

So much for believing that the state would be on the hook for cost overruns of the original HSR project that he rejected.

 

[user 1215]

Interesting. Maybe the trick is to get people in positions of power sufficiently invested personally in passenger rail and stuff ancillary to it to secure the future of passenger rail. Afterall that is the way this country appears to run Coming to think of it, wasn't that always the case throughout the heyday of railroads?

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/08/16/rick-scott-and-wife-invested-in-parent-company-bidding-on-tampa-high-speed-rail/

Looks like he's putting his money where his mouth is: in private enterprises.

 

[chrsjrcj]

More like putting his mouth where his money is. Remember, one of Rick Scott's advisors in 2011 had a connection to All Aboard Florida.

Rick Scott advisor had inside track to keep All Aboard Florida rail project rolling

 

[chrsjrcj]

Looking at fares, the starting price for a Select ticket appears to have gone up to $40 for the full WPB to Miami trip. I believe they were in the $30-$35 range before. Smart fares start at $20, but some off-peak trips start at $15. This is more or less the same.

$20 isn't a terrible value for Smart, but I think it's hard to justify spending $40 on a Select ticket. Of course, Brightline most think the demand is there.

Edit to add: It looks like starting October 1st, prices go up to $45/$25. Oof. Glad I got my joyrides in when I did (and trust me, I did quite a few

).

 

[GBNorman]

From Salzburg At--

A raise to the fare level immediately noted HAD to be expected. The $10-$15 was clearly set forth as introductory. Joyrides on the cheap are over; time to market the service, including parking, at a level at which, just maybe, the losses from such can be sustained until service to MCO begins.

 

[Anderson]

Well, this is in line with their projected revenue model. I suspect there will be some dynamic pricing in the mix, too...it's a lot easier to get $45-50 for a ticket at rush hour than at 2300.

 

[GBNorman]

From Starbucks Salzburg Hbf (going home - "The Longest Day")--

Of course, AAF wants to develop demand pricing, but they have no model whatsoever to draw upon. Likely they have hired some high powered "Final Four" consulting outfit, but they too will be throwing darts @$5,000ea.

Expect many pricing adjustments.

 

[cirdan]

Interesting. Maybe the trick is to get people in positions of power sufficiently invested personally in passenger rail and stuff ancillary to it to secure the future of passenger rail.

Isn't that what lobbying is all about.

I don't want to beat the drum for privatization, as I see many risks. But one of the strengths of a privatized industry is that they can do heavy lobbying work in a way that a government owned industry cannot, and in a way that maybe in the past the Unions were able to do, but they have long ago lost that power..

 

[Mystic River Dragon]

I just got an email that they are introducing a new class: SmartPLUS. It looks exactly like Smart, except that you get a free snack and drink.

 

[user 1215]

I just got an email that they are introducing a new class: SmartPLUS. It looks exactly like Smart, except that you get a free snack and drink.

Makes you wonder if the snacks are worth it.

 

[user 1215]

I'm not going to be able to afford my joy ride any more. One way, maybe.