Capitol Limited & Lake Shore Limited Delays Summer/Fall 2014

[neroden]

A brief discussion with an Amtrak rep disclosed they don't really know what to do at the moment. They were and are aware of the NS melt down (her words btw), but short of stopping both trains, which they don't want to do, she said they are just "hunkering down" with the mega delays each day. NS has told them to expect 4-6 hour delays thru the OH-IN stretch, for the "foreseeable future" as the railroad is both struggling with a big increase in traffic and are behind in track work--sort of a perfect storm that created this mess. She did mention bussing would happen on a day to day basis, but was not sure whether they opted for this today, since both the CL and LSL were actually doing quite well until between SOB and TOL.

Did you suggest to her that Amtrak could reroute through Michigan? With 4-6+ hour delays on the existing route, *it would be faster*, and it would certainly be more *consistent*.

 

[neroden]

Can we get some non-idiots to run a railroad, because it looks like BNSF and NS are abject failures.

At this point, I'd prefer the British Rail management team from the 1950s/1960s -- the idiots who decided that building new steam locomotives was the way to go. They may have been bleeding money, but the trains were running on time.

 

[neroden]

Fred Frailey of Trains Magazine posted a column yesterday (Sept 30) on the NS meltdown: The new normal is highly abnormal. Lots of specifics in his column on the delays on Monday and Tuesday and the reasons why. Track work for Indiana Gateway projects are contributing to the mess.

Mr. Frailey's earlier columns agree with my analysis: the aged "pygmies" (his word) running the Class Is are mired in the past, and somehow can't comprehend the fact that railroading is *expanding* and they need to *expand*.

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey/archive/2014/09/20/should-the-chinese-expand-u-s-railroads.aspx

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey/archive/2014/08/17/outrages-on-the-rails-the-real-story.aspx

If I were running BNSF, I could solve all the problems quite quickly; I'd phone Buffett, tell him the dividend was cancelled this year; call the head of training and recruitment and start a serious program to hire a lot more people; issue more bonds; have the marketing department tell me where shipping demand is increasing, have the operations department tell me where they need extra capacity to feed that demand, and build it. It would a bit trickier for NS, which has to float on the stock market, but it should be possible.

I'm not sure things will get any better unless the execs die off and are replaced by younger people who understand that this is an *expanding* business.

 

[neroden]

A connection from the Michigan Line to the South Shore is possible, but would have to be built.

Correction: this connection already exists west of Michigan City station; it's via the NIPSCO industrial tracks used to service the power plant. Avoids the Class Is entirely.

Detouring via the Michigan Line to Porter would require CSX cooperation on the east.

No, it wouldn't.

 

[MikefromCrete]

Fred Frailey of Trains Magazine posted a column yesterday (Sept 30) on the NS meltdown: The new normal is highly abnormal. Lots of specifics in his column on the delays on Monday and Tuesday and the reasons why. Track work for Indiana Gateway projects are contributing to the mess.

Mr. Frailey's earlier columns agree with my analysis: the aged "pygmies" (his word) running the Class Is are mired in the past, and somehow can't comprehend the fact that railroading is *expanding* and they need to *expand*.

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey/archive/2014/09/20/should-the-chinese-expand-u-s-railroads.aspx

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey/archive/2014/08/17/outrages-on-the-rails-the-real-story.aspx

If I were running BNSF, I could solve all the problems quite quickly; I'd phone Buffett, tell him the dividend was cancelled this year; call the head of training and recruitment and start a serious program to hire a lot more people; issue more bonds; have the marketing department tell me where shipping demand is increasing, have the operations department tell me where they need extra capacity to feed that demand, and build it. It would a bit trickier for NS, which has to float on the stock market, but it should be possible.

I'm not sure things will get any better unless the execs die off and are replaced by younger people who understand that this is an *expanding* business.

Of course you'd be fired the moment you told Buffett the dividend will be cancelled this year.

 

[neroden]

Of course you'd be fired the moment you told Buffett the dividend will be cancelled this year.

That's not how Buffett works. Look at the history of some of his other companies. He gives management their head. He doesn't fire company execs unless they've been losing money for a decade or more. He *gets* the idea of reinvestment from retained earnings.

This is why this should be easy for BNSF, but much harder for NS (who might face a board revolt or a hostile takeover like the one threatened against CSX).

 

[MikefromCrete]

A connection from the Michigan Line to the South Shore is possible, but would have to be built.

Correction: this connection already exists west of Michigan City station; it's via the NIPSCO industrial tracks used to service the power plant. Avoids the Class Is entirely.

Detouring via the Michigan Line to Porter would require CSX cooperation on the east.

No, it wouldn't.

Hmm, detouring through an industrial complex doesn't seem like the best way to do this.

As far as CSX is concerned, a previous poster proposed using a csx line from Toledo to Dearborn. I'm not too familiar with the Detroit-Toledo rail system, but if not CSX then some other freight line would have to be persuaded to let Amtrak use its route.

 

[MikefromCrete]

Of course you'd be fired the moment you told Buffett the dividend will be cancelled this year.

That's not how Buffett works. Look at the history of some of his other companies. He gives management their head. He doesn't fire company execs unless they've been losing money for a decade or more. He *gets* the idea of reinvestment from retained earnings.

This is why this should be easy for BNSF, but much harder for NS (who might face a board revolt or a hostile takeover like the one threatened against CSX).

And all this would cost how much money and take how long? I don't think any of these actions are as easy as you seem to think they are.

 

[neroden]

A connection from the Michigan Line to the South Shore is possible, but would have to be built.

Correction: this connection already exists west of Michigan City station; it's via the NIPSCO industrial tracks used to service the power plant. Avoids the Class Is entirely.

Detouring via the Michigan Line to Porter would require CSX cooperation on the east.

No, it wouldn't.

Hmm, detouring through an industrial complex doesn't seem like the best way to do this.

It's not ideal, no. The NIPSCO connection has been used before, however, on planned detours of the Michigan Line trains. It's a very short connection, you can see it on Google Maps.
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Michigan+City,+IN&hl=en&ll=41.714923,-86.916618&spn=0.022937,0.033345&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=5.776255,8.536377&oq=michigan+c&hnear=Michigan+City,+LaPorte+County,+Indiana&t=m&z=15

(OK, longer than I thought; about 1.5 miles)

As far as CSX is concerned, a previous poster proposed using a csx line from Toledo to Dearborn. I'm not too familiar with the Detroit-Toledo rail system, but if not CSX then some other freight line would have to be persuaded to let Amtrak use its route.

The Conrail route is usually used when Amtrak takes detours via Michigan, which has been done before. Conrail seems to be pretty cooperative...
There's actually a hell of a lot of trackage between Detroit and Toledo. CSX is an alternative, so is CN, but Conrail has the most capacity.

http://knorek.com/RR/SAA/SAAIndex.htm

 

[neroden]

Of course you'd be fired the moment you told Buffett the dividend will be cancelled this year.

That's not how Buffett works. Look at the history of some of his other companies. He gives management their head. He doesn't fire company execs unless they've been losing money for a decade or more. He *gets* the idea of reinvestment from retained earnings.

This is why this should be easy for BNSF, but much harder for NS (who might face a board revolt or a hostile takeover like the one threatened against CSX).

And all this would cost how much money and take how long? I don't think any of these actions are as easy as you seem to think they are.

Well, you're wrong; like many fools, you simply ASSume that the people in charge know what they are doing; this is a terrible assumption.

It would have been easy for BNSF; but Rose & Ice were fools.

It's not just me saying this; you can dig up the magazine columns. A lot of commentators who know what they're talking about (like I do) were saying that BNSF had a tremendous advantage after being acquired by Berkshire Hathaway, because BNSF could afford to make the capital investment which it needed without looking over its shoulder at the stock market. BNSF *could have* made the capital investment it needed, and handled the predicted bumper crop, predicted oil business, expanding intermodal business, etc. with poise and style.

Matt Rose and Carl Ice proceeded to *utterly waste* that advantage. This is an example of how bad management can destroy stockholder value. Because Buffett doesn't micromanage, he won't fire them for this, but they deserve a chewing-out.

 

[neroden]

Perhaps this is the most on-point of Frailey's columns:

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey/archive/2014/09/29/you-just-don-39-t-get-it.aspx

 

[NYP2NFL01]

I found this on Amtrak's Service Disruptions page today: Significant Delays between Chicago and Washington/New York/Boston via Cleveland Effective through January 12, 2015

Passengers traveling aboard the Capitol Limited and Lake Shore Limited may experience significant delays due to heavy freight congestion along the routes. Over recent weeks, both east and westbound trains have typically encountered delays of more than four hours. Amtrak will continue to work with NS Railway, CSX and other carriers to restore dependable service along these routes.

Passengers are strongly urged to check the status of their train on Amtrak.com, our free mobile apps or call 1-800-USA-RAIL (1-800-872-7245) for the most up-to-date departure and arrival times.

Current on-time performance data is available on Amtrak.com, including responsibility for each element of delay. This information is also presented to passengers when booking travel on the website and is available elsewhere from Amtrak, including these passenger notices.

We appreciate your patronage and apologize for any inconvenience. Thank you for traveling with Amtrak.

PSN 1014-02

 

[Metra Electric Guest]

So the talk about shifting to the SS in Michigan City made me wonder if the following was possible, if only in the interest of getting to Chicago, if not CUS. Have the delayed trains switch to SS tracks in South Bend and switch to a SS freight locomotive and whisk the train right into Millennium Station perhaps stopping in Michigan City, Gary and 55-56-57 along the way. Doesn't really help those connecting at Union but a few buses could be waiting at Van Buren on the busway or right outside the South Shore platforms on Lower Randolph to take connecting passengers to Union. Since it looks like there is no track connection, hire the SS to have a train meet Amtrak and transfer everyone over one of their trains and follow the above route into Chicago. Again, not ideal, but beats waiting for hours to get into Chicago and for people whose final destination is Chicago (other than transferring to Metra) Randolph Street is arguably better since you have indoor connections via the Pedway to the Red and Blue Lines, a no street crossing (for the moment) connection to the rest of the CTA Lines and easy access to the loop and North Michigan Avenue.

I'm sure I'll be laughed out of here though...

 

[Bob Dylan]

I'd think that having Charted Buses in SOB for those making connections from #29/#49 in CHI would be the cheapest and easiest solution for Amtrak!

In the case of a Total Meltdown even busing from TOL-CHI would be better than missing connections or holding the Western LD Trains!!!

Amtrak's notice is boiler plate that is a fill in the blank puff job, where's their course of action to help with this ongoing Mess???!!!!!

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

The last thing I want to see when I ride a train is Bustitution but Jim has a good idea regarding having buses standing by in South Bend. From there it is a quick flash to the Loop and could save a couple hours for the connecting pax. Since this would likely become a regular event, Amtrak also needs to have a set compensation for affected pax and be able to cut Vouchers right on the spot.

 

[benale]

So the advisory is through mid January? I feel it may be extended after that. Nothing is more frustrating than having the first leg of a cross country trip clouded by the uncertainty if a Western connection will be made. Two,three hours seems to be the norm lately leaving time to catch 3, 5 and 7. I noticed last week 29 got into Chicago 8 hours late and I'm sure the connecting trains have been long gone.

A stand by bus at South Bend seems to be the only solution until this mess is cleared up. Knowing we would make the connection would certainly give passengers peace of mind. We have a 29 to 7 connection in June. Missing 7 would mess up our two week vacation. I hope things are back to normal by then.

 

[Metra Electric Guest]

The one real problem with bustitution from SOB to Chicago is winter - they are in the Lake Michigan Lake Effect Snow belt between Gary and South Bend, so buses could be even worse than a delayed train in January. The real solution is more tracks...

And why the Amtrak and SS stations are not shared (or at least why there isn't a shared station in addition to the airport) is another matter.

 

[afigg]

I found this on Amtrak's Service Disruptions page today: Significant Delays between Chicago and Washington/New York/Boston via Cleveland Effective through January 12, 2015

Good. Amtrak finally posted a service alert, even if it is a boilerplate one. Did complaints here and from others cause Amtrak to post one?

As for delays through January, the move of all Metra Rock Island trains to the Englewood Flyover and primary parts of the project should be completed soon. if the Indiana Gateway and NS track maintenance projects shut down before winter weather kicks in, then the delays will be due just to heavy traffic. The CL and LSL may not get back to mostly on-time, but I would expect the situation to improve. Then again maybe not.

Today, CL #29(10/2) got through the SOB to CHI stretch losing one hour this time; got in to CHI at 11:23 AM. No long stops as far I could tell, but very slow going from just east of Porter to the IN/IL border. LSL #49 however got held for a long time around Porter, taking the hit this time, arriving at CHI at 1:32 PM.

We will see if CL #30 can depart close to on-time tonight, but unfortunately the CZ #6 and TE #22 are both running over 4 hours late inbound to CHI as I write this. EB #8(10/1) is over 6 hours late, so the LSL #48 could get held departing CHI even if the equipment is turned around for an on-time departure. Perhaps the CL and LSL will get a break over the weekend and only run a couple of hours late each way.... :huh:

 

[afigg]

I'd think that having Charted Buses in SOB for those making connections from #29/#49 in CHI would be the cheapest and easiest solution for Amtrak!

In the case of a Total Meltdown even busing from TOL-CHI would be better than missing connections or holding the Western LD Trains!!!

The delays have shifted to be between Toledo and Chicago with the SOB-CHI section noticeably bad only in the past week. The pattern may shift again. Which means the buses really would have to operate from Toledo. which is a pretty long haul to Chicago on buses with tight seating. I did a TOL-CHI bustitution last July and rather not do that again.

 

[amtrakmichigan]

I suggested using CSX tracks not from Dearborn, but from Wayne, Mi.(Wayne Junction). It would be more direct to Toledo than to run all the way to Detroit and than South to Toledo. However I believe that the trains would have to pull past the single wye track, and back into the wye at Wayne moving east or west. I believe passenger speed limits on most of this run is 50 to 60mph.

I still believe the best solution to this mess is using the Indiana South Shore electric line from CHI to SOB.

 

[afigg]

If I were running BNSF, I could solve all the problems quite quickly; I'd phone Buffett, tell him the dividend was cancelled this year; call the head of training and recruitment and start a serious program to hire a lot more people; issue more bonds; have the marketing department tell me where shipping demand is increasing, have the operations department tell me where they need extra capacity to feed that demand, and build it. It would a bit trickier for NS, which has to float on the stock market, but it should be possible.

Berkshire Hathaway does not pay dividends, so there is no dividend to cancel. Berkshire Hathaway has a market capitalization of $174 billion, so BNSF is just part of its vast holdings. If BNSF needs to raise capital for capacity expansion, BNSF can do so on the commercial market.

 

[Barciur]

Just curious: does that kind of an advisory affect voucher situations? I.e. if you get a 5 hour delay and complain, is it more likely that they will say "well there is a service advisory" and opt not to issue a voucher?

 

[KVG_DC]

If your train gets delayed submit a complaint e-mail to the federal Surface Transportation Board at [email protected] including:

• Your train’s number (it’s on your ticket/reservation confirmation);
• The approximate time(s) and location(s) of the delay(s);
• The date(s) of the incident(s); and
• Why you believe the delay was caused by the freight railroad.

Let us see if we can collectively gain STB's attention by crowd sourcing......

Information courtesy of All Aboard Ohio.

That last point is where I'd fail to be able to provide much evidence.

 

[tommylicious]

I was on thursday's 30. 23 hours total. left Chicago only 40 mins late, but got in WAS 5 hours late. great crew in dining (Adam, Kima, as well as chef) and SCA named Cliff was excellent. 25 mph most of the way. btw, that sliding door rattles like crazy b/w the bedrooms. had to fashion a "shim" out of folded up magazine cover stock and jammed it in there. Duct tape is a must. taped all door seams. very quiet. top bunk support pole rattles a lot too...more difficult to shim that one. wish there was more luggage space in bedroom. running downstairs to get pyjamas, breakfast clothes change was a drag, esp unlocking and re-locking luggage. company on the train was delightful. scanner was super nice to have. some of the nicest scenery and most remote places i've ever seen.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

The one real problem with bustitution from SOB to Chicago is winter - they are in the Lake Michigan Lake Effect Snow belt between Gary and South Bend, so buses could be even worse than a delayed train in January. The real solution is more tracks...

More tracks is best, however the interstate between those points are toll roads. Well staffed and equipped. I travel those roads way too much and find it a relief to enter the tollway.