CZ on-time performance into SLC question

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J

Jessica

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Does anybody have actual numbers with regard to the west-bound Zephyr getting into SLC on time? It's supposed to pull in around 11 pm and we have friends picking us up. What are the chances this train will be late and how late? The stats Amtrak gives are too general. I want to have an idea of what I am actually asking my friends to do. 11 pm is doable, but 1 and 2 am is a bit much to ask anybody. Thoughts or suggestions?
 
Jessica said:
Does anybody have actual numbers with regard to the west-bound Zephyr getting into SLC on time? It's supposed to pull in around 11 pm and we have friends picking us up. What are the chances this train will be late and how late? The stats Amtrak gives are too general. I want to have an idea of what I am actually asking my friends to do. 11 pm is doable, but 1 and 2 am is a bit much to ask anybody. Thoughts or suggestions?
Click to expand...
Jessica, what I have noticed is the California Zephyr tends to run late in the spring, but usually it arrives into SLC around 10:20pm. Right now, it seems to be flooding causing the issues. When is your trip? You can always call a cab-there are several cab companies here.
 
And your friends can keep track of the ETA by texting 401-268-7251. They just need to put on the text: SLC 5

They'll get a text msg back with the ETA (so far tonight's train ETA is on time).
 
The archives at John's Amtrak Status Maps are significantly more complete.

Edit: Not looking good for you tonight:

Code: 
* Train 5 of 05/31/2013.
* California Zephyr
* +---------------- Station code
* |    +----------- Schedule Arrival Day  
* |    |  +-------- Schedule Arrival time
* |    |  |     +----- Schedule Departure Day
* |    |  |     |  +-- Schedule Departure Time 
* |    |  |     |  |     +------------- Actual Arrival Time
* |    |  |     |  |     |     +------- Actual Departure Time
* |    |  |     |  |     |     |     +- Comments
* V    V  V     V  V     V     V     V
* CHI  *  *     1  200P  *     200P  Departed:  on time.
* NPV  *  *     1  234P  *     234P  Departed:  on time.
* PCT  *  *     1  344P  *     407P  Departed:  23 minutes late.
* GBB  *  *     1  438P  *     504P  Departed:  26 minutes late.
* BRL  *  *     1  525P  *     551P  Departed:  26 minutes late.
* MTP  *  *     1  559P  *     621P  Departed:  22 minutes late.
* OTM  1  643P  1  653P  703P  715P  Departed:  22 minutes late.
* OSC  *  *     1  809P  *     840P  Departed:  31 minutes late.
* CRN  *  *     1  841P  *     914P  Departed:  33 minutes late.
* OMA  1  1055P 1  1105P 1108P 1137P Departed:  32 minutes late.
* LNK  2  1208A 2  1214A 158A  213A  Departed:  1 hour and 59 minutes late.
* HAS  *  *     2  147A  *     403A  Departed:  2 hours and 16 minutes late.
* HLD  *  *     2  234A  *     455A  Departed:  2 hours and 21 minutes late.
* MCK  *  *     2  343A  *     602A  Departed:  2 hours and 19 minutes late.
* FMG  *  *     2  505A  *     750A  Departed:  2 hours and 45 minutes late.
* DEN  2  715A  2  805A  1013A 1111A Departed:  3 hours and 6 minutes late.
* WIP  *  *     2  1007A *     121P  Departed:  3 hours and 14 minutes late.
* GRA  *  *     2  1037A *     145P  Departed:  3 hours and 8 minutes late.
  GSC  *  *     2  153P              MT
  GJT  2  357P  2  410P              MT
  GRI  *  *     2  558P              MT
  HER  *  *     2  720P              MT
  PRO  *  *     2  926P              MT
  SLC  2  1105P 2  1130P             MT
  ELK  *  *     3  303A              PT
  WNN  *  *     3  540A              PT
  RNO  *  *     3  836A              PT
  TRU  *  *     3  937A              PT
  COX  *  *     3  1148A             PT
  RSV  3  1255P 3  1257P             PT
  SAC  3  213P  3  225P              PT
  DAV  3  244P  3  246P              PT
  MTZ  *  *     3  332P              PT
  RIC  *  *     3  359P              PT
  EMY  3  410P  *  *                 PT
 
Last edited by a moderator:
It's possible for the CZ to make up 45 minutes between GSC and SLC, but not much more than that. So look for a MINIMUM of two hours late into SLC this evening.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sure, plenty of cabs in SLC. Like the night 2 years ago when the train arrived at 12:30am. The ticket office called a cab, which proceeded not to show up. After 40 minites, I gave up and walked the mile to Little America. Not fun in the middle if the night
 
greatcats said:
Sure, plenty of cabs in SLC. Like the night 2 years ago when the train arrived at 12:30am. The ticket office called a cab, which proceeded not to show up. After 40 minites, I gave up and walked the mile to Little America. Not fun in the middle if the night
Click to expand...
Yeah, I know. We waited last July for Yellow Cab for over 40 minutes. Yellow Cab's a few blocks from the station. We finally flagged down another Cab, City Cab. This time I will be calling ahead before arrival, or I might have someone drop our car off at the station.
 
Ryan said:
Average delay for 5 into SLC in 2012 was 59 minutes.
Average delay for 5 into SLC in May 2012 was 40 minutes.

(fixed typo, thanks Betty!)
Click to expand...
Looking more deeply at the numbers, the handful out really, really long delays skew these averages quite a bit. I got my "stats" script cleaned up and working properly, and got the following breakdown:

Train 5 into SLC in 2012:

Early: 0.0%

On Time: 48.19%

Less than one hour: 35.38%

One to two hours late: 7.8%

Two to three hours late: 3.06%

More than 3 hours late: 5.57%
 
Ryan said:
Ryan said:
Average delay for 5 into SLC in 2012 was 59 minutes.
Average delay for 5 into SLC in May 2012 was 40 minutes.

(fixed typo, thanks Betty!)
Click to expand...
Looking more deeply at the numbers, the handful out really, really long delays skew these averages quite a bit. I got my "stats" script cleaned up and working properly, and got the following breakdown:

Train 5 into SLC in 2012:

[...]

More than 3 hours late: 5.57%
Click to expand...
How is it 3+ hours late every 20 days or so? Considering that there's already padding built in there, that's just crazy that the lateness is that bad.

(Also, by these stats, the "guaranteed" connection to the Greyhound bus that leaves at 12:05 AM up to Boise is missed between 8.63% and 16.43% of the time. But I digress.)
 
Looking at the dates, they're all clustered so they're likely weather related:

01/02/12 221
01/18/12 255
01/19/12 606
01/28/12 447
02/04/12 368
02/13/12 341
02/27/12 246
06/10/12 216
07/06/12 392
07/07/12 240
07/23/12 208
08/04/12 237
08/15/12 227
09/08/12 257
10/05/12 356
10/17/12 358
12/19/12 271
12/20/12 321
12/25/12 221
12/28/12 465
The bus probably isn't quite that bad - these are all departure times, which probably isn't the best choice for SLC since Amtrak reports arrival and departure times for this station and there can be considerable dwell time. Here's an example of the text file I'm using:

* California Zephyr
* +---------------- Station code
* | +----------- Schedule Arrival Day
* | | +-------- Schedule Arrival time
* | | | +----- Schedule Departure Day
* | | | | +-- Schedule Departure Time
* | | | | | +------------- Actual Arrival Time
* | | | | | | +------- Actual Departure Time
* | | | | | | | +- Comments
* V V V V V V V V
* CHI * * 1 200P * 200P Departed: on time.
* NPV * * 1 234P * 234P Departed: on time.
* PCT * * 1 344P * 349P Departed: 5 minutes late.
* GBB * * 1 438P * 444P Departed: 6 minutes late.
* BRL * * 1 525P * 532P Departed: 7 minutes late.
* MTP * * 1 559P * 603P Departed: 4 minutes late.
* OTM 1 643P 1 653P 642P 653P Departed: on time.
* OSC * * 1 809P * 811P Departed: 2 minutes late.
* CRN * * 1 841P * 847P Departed: 6 minutes late.
* OMA 1 1055P 1 1105P 1030P 1105P Departed: on time.
* LNK 2 1208A 2 1214A 1209A 1226A Departed: 12 minutes late.
* HAS * * 2 147A * 213A Departed: 26 minutes late.
* HLD * * 2 234A * 310A Departed: 36 minutes late.
* MCK * * 2 343A * 417A Departed: 34 minutes late.
* FMG * * 2 505A * 543A Departed: 38 minutes late.
* DEN 2 715A 2 805A 730A 805A Departed: on time.
* WIP * * 2 1007A * 1039A Departed: 32 minutes late.
* GRA * * 2 1037A * 1106A Departed: 29 minutes late.
* GSC * * 2 153P * 257P Departed: 1 hour and 4 minutes late.
* GJT 2 357P 2 410P 438P 456P Departed: 46 minutes late.
* GRI * * 2 558P * 647P Departed: 49 minutes late.
* HER * * 2 720P * 805P Departed: 45 minutes late.
* PRO * * 2 926P * 1006P Departed: 40 minutes late.
* SLC 2 1105P 2 1130P 1100P 1234A Departed: 1 hour and 4 minutes late.
* ELK * * 3 303A * 417A Departed: 1 hour and 14 minutes late.
* WNN * * 3 540A * 656A Departed: 1 hour and 16 minutes late.
* RNO * * 3 836A * 1005A Departed: 1 hour and 29 minutes late.
* TRU * * 3 937A * 1108A Departed: 1 hour and 31 minutes late.
* COX * * 3 1148A * 118P Departed: 1 hour and 30 minutes late.
* RSV 3 1255P 3 1257P 228P 233P Departed: 1 hour and 36 minutes late.
* SAC 3 213P 3 225P 258P 309P Departed: 44 minutes late.
* DAV 3 244P 3 246P 225P 327P Departed: 41 minutes late.
* MTZ * * 3 332P * 410P Departed: 38 minutes late.
* RIC * * 3 359P * 438P Departed: 39 minutes late.
* EMY 3 410P * * 447P * Arrived: 37 minutes late.


If you look at the SLC line, you can see that the train actually arrived about 5 minutes early, but sat in the station for 90 minutes for some reason. My script extracts the "Departed: 1 hour and 4 minutes late." off of that line and reports 64 minutes of delay for that date. Just looking at departure times, you'd conclude "missed the bus", but when you dig into the data you see that someone would have made it.

It's possible, but much more complicated to dig into the times and try to parse them - knowing that SLC has arrival times listed, maybe I'll give it a crack and see how often the bus connection is missed.
 
For the annual statistics, some runs that might have been really, really late into SLC make actually arrive close to one time, if the train is rerouted via Wyoming. For example, rock slides can close the regular route in through Colorado, especially in springtime. But, if #5 has not yet left DEN before the slide is reported, then the train can and will be rerouted through Wyoming, with passengers for the Colorado stations west of Denver transferred to buses in Denver.
 

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