Effect of rising gas prices on Amtrak ridership in summer of '22

[Willbridge]

Here's Sunday, May 1st, as it appears updated on Wednesday night with high gas prices levelling off.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $20
0820 AT $55/SO
0950 GL $23
1005 FB $20
1150 FB $20
1200 AT SO/SO
1500 FB $20
1556 AT SO/$85/$186
1830 FB $20
1925 AT $65/SO
1950 GL $25

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $42 via Seattle
0820 AT $113/SO/SO chng at Seattle
0950 GL $57 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/$183

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

I'll skip doing this for a while as long as gas prices stay at the current range. As I've written before, gas prices tend to hit a plateau when the industry tries not to enter the range in which people start taking action. For example, a sharp increase might result in the national media noticing the vacant Amtrak board seats. In the 1972-75 shortage the governor of Oregon fired all but the two newest members of the Tri-Met board. In the 1979-80 shortage, Colorado voters replaced the appointed RTD board with an elected board, etc.

One question that this series has raised: what's with the Sold Out Business Class? Do the substitutes for the withdrawn Talgo VI trainsets have less seats? I can guess at several explanations but perhaps someone closer could shed light.

 

[BlackDiamond]

I'm wondering if for the long term, if gas prices continue to rise and more people switch to electric cars, given that EV's are great for shorter trips where you can be back home and charge the car in the garage overnight, but not so great on longer trips where you might have to sit at a charging station for an hour or more, whether this might encourage more train travel especially in the medium distance 200 - 500 mile range where trains can beat our air travel. This of course would require a much better medium distance corridor network that is lacking in many areas (Ohio I'm looking at you).

 

[Rover]

 

[Eric in East County]

There ARE those who would like to see us paying $10 or even $15 dollars a gallon for gas like people do in Europe. Their thinking is that higher gas prices will force people to give up their cars and use public transportation. My son, who lives and works in Leipzig, Germany doesn’t own a car and bicycles to work. When he travels within Europe, he takes the train.

While we would all like to see a passenger rail system in this country modeled after those in Europe, many of us wonder if Amtrak has the desire or the capability to handle an increase in ridership should the demand arise. This is why it will be interesting to see how rising gas prices will affect summer travel plans and if Amtrak is able to satisfy the needs of those who do decide to take the train rather than drive.

 

[west point]

It appears but cannot confirm that Amtrak has not been able to increase the number of available passenger cars both revenue and non-revenue. If so, Amtrak cannot meet any additional demand! If that is the case suspect Amtrak will not work on as many non-revenue cars. there goes the BC, lounges, diners, Bags, Bag-dorms., to the out of service lines as various Periodic items meet time deadlines (OOS)

 

[daybeers]

Some Regionals have been running with 9 instead of 8 cars recently.

 

[John Bredin]

It appears but cannot confirm that Amtrak has not been able to increase the number of available passenger cars both revenue and non-revenue.

I'm not sure that's true. I've been watching various railcams since spring 2020 when I felt much more stuck at home than now. While I don't watch every day and haven't wrote down how long the consists were and are, I get the definite impression various long-distance trains that got really short during the worst of Covid have started getting longer again in the last few weeks. Although to your point about non-revenue cars, I've noticed mostly additional coaches and the occasional extra sleeper.

 

[west point]

John: The single level trains here in the east off and on show sold out both coach and sleeper. Off and on probably cancellations that have not had time to refill. The Super Star does not have as many cars as B-4 Covid's that had the total of Meteor and Star total higher. LSL is getting closer, Crescent the other day only had 2 coaches although a few days later had 3. The Crescent's problem of not enough coach passengers south of ATL/BHM really points out the reason not having 4 or 5 coaches. The Cardinal= it is still short although does have bag - dorm as well as sleeper. But no 2nd full sleeper so far.

The new Amtrak board need to get down to the nitty gritty and let us know the actual roadworthy and passenger worthy cars each month. Then maybe management will have their feet held to the fire.

 

[railiner]

It's high time the government (FTC?) requires gasoline retailer's to end the ancient practice of adding fractions (.9) to the price per gallon. That would also give the extra digit...

 

[MARC Rider]

It's high time the government (FTC?) requires gasoline retailer's to end the ancient practice of adding fractions (.9) to the price per gallon. That would also give the extra digit...

At least all taxes are included in the posted price, unlike most items being offered for sale these days.
Another thing the government (at all levels) could do is charge taxes at the wholesale level, which would make retailers pay the taxes when they purchased their supplies. This would give them a bit of a financial incentive to spend what it takes to prevent leaks from their underground storage tanks, as they'd be paying more for the gas, and so would have more to lose if product is lost through leakage.

 

[Rover]

Gas prices in LA today:

 

[Willbridge]

There ARE those who would like to see us paying $10 or even $15 dollars a gallon for gas like people do in Europe. Their thinking is that higher gas prices will force people to give up their cars and use public transportation. My son, who lives and works in Leipzig, Germany doesn’t own a car and bicycles to work. When he travels within Europe, he takes the train.

While we would all like to see a passenger rail system in this country modeled after those in Europe, many of us wonder if Amtrak has the desire or the capability to handle an increase in ridership should the demand arise. This is why it will be interesting to see how rising gas prices will affect summer travel plans and if Amtrak is able to satisfy the needs of those who do decide to take the train rather than drive.

Based on my following PDX>SEA reservations and fares (see earlier posts above) Amtrak is already not satisfying the needs of those who try to take the train rather than drive or take buses (Flix or GL in this case). I stopped posting it because it was so boring showing trains selling out.

 

[Willbridge]

Here's Sunday, May 1st, as it appears updated on Wednesday night with high gas prices levelling off.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $20
0820 AT $55/SO
0950 GL $23
1005 FB $20
1150 FB $20
1200 AT SO/SO
1500 FB $20
1556 AT SO/$85/$186
1830 FB $20
1925 AT $65/SO
1950 GL $25

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $42 via Seattle
0820 AT $113/SO/SO chng at Seattle
0950 GL $57 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/$183

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

I'll skip doing this for a while as long as gas prices stay at the current range. As I've written before, gas prices tend to hit a plateau when the industry tries not to enter the range in which people start taking action. For example, a sharp increase might result in the national media noticing the vacant Amtrak board seats. In the 1972-75 shortage the governor of Oregon fired all but the two newest members of the Tri-Met board. In the 1979-80 shortage, Colorado voters replaced the appointed RTD board with an elected board, etc.

One question that this series has raised: what's with the Sold Out Business Class? Do the substitutes for the withdrawn Talgo VI trainsets have less seats? I can guess at several explanations but perhaps someone closer could shed light.

Here's Memorial Day, May 30th, as it appears on Sunday night May 22nd with high gas prices moving up again.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0700 FB $32
0820 AT $65/SO
0950 GL $28
1005 FB $50
1200 AT $65/SO
1556 AT SO/SO/$186
1830 FB $32
1925 AT $28/$56
1950 GL $27

And here's PDX to SPK:

0700 FB $62 via Seattle
0820 AT $192/SO/$594 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $77 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $46/--/$183

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

 

[Rover]

Furnace Creek, Ca.

https://www.newsweek.com/why-does-this-gas-station-have-most-expensive-fuel-us-1693078

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

Jeez! And I thought seeing sixes was bad in the Chicago area (I think I paid five something for mid-grade yesterday).

Edit: 5.25 in the NW 'burbs (County Cook)...

 

[Rover]

I can remember a time, in the 70's, when I filled up my sedan.... for $8.00

 

[billosborn]

I am not familiar with Amtrak's ridership in any given May, but it seems like the LD trains are filling up. Prior to a week or two ago, the Southwest Chief was only traveling with 2 coach cars, until they actually were temporarily overbooked and since then added a third car. I would imagine that Coach and Roomettes will sell out on every LD train through the summer.

 

[cirdan]

I'm wondering if for the long term, if gas prices continue to rise and more people switch to electric cars, given that EV's are great for shorter trips where you can be back home and charge the car in the garage overnight, but not so great on longer trips where you might have to sit at a charging station for an hour or more, whether this might encourage more train travel especially in the medium distance 200 - 500 mile range where trains can beat our air travel. This of course would require a much better medium distance corridor network that is lacking in many areas (Ohio I'm looking at you).

Some years ago there were some discussions in Europe about auto-trains being equipped with charging points so cars can recharge while on the trip and arrive at destination with a full battery.

In the end nothing was done. But who knows, maybe that discussion will come back?

 

[TheVig]

I saw $4.18 for regular here in Charlotte yesterday.

Regardless of fuel prices, we are riding the train anyway for most of our vacation travels.

 

[Barb Stout]

Furnace Creek, Ca.

https://www.newsweek.com/why-does-this-gas-station-have-most-expensive-fuel-us-1693078View attachment 28547

This used to be the gas station that my sister and brother-in-law had to use when they were park rangers in Death Valley National Park. And the nearest grocery store was 80 miles away. They did try to get gas when they went grocery shopping because nothing was higher than in Death Valley, the lowest place in the US.

 

[Rover]

Energy prices are top of mind for most people now. From a couple of years ago when fuel prices were low, the rapid rise has helped put a crimp on the economy and raised driving costs for retail consumers. The signs of this rise are everywhere as service station operators adjust prices higher on an almost daily basis. The national average for 87 octane gasoline has reached $4.50 a gallon for the first time ever. Diesel is nearing $6.00 per gallon and raising shipping costs for everyone.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Where-Are-Oil-Prices-Headed.html

 

[TinCan782]

This used to be the gas station that my sister and brother-in-law had to use when they were park rangers in Death Valley National Park. And the nearest grocery store was 80 miles away. They did try to get gas when they went grocery shopping because nothing was higher than in Death Valley, the lowest place in the US.

Here's that same gas station in March 2021 during a week-long visit my wife and I made to the park. We are "topping off" the tank prior to heading back to L.A.
The high prices of 14 months ago seem tame now!

 

[Willbridge]

Here's Memorial Day, May 30th, as it appears on Sunday night May 22nd with high gas prices moving up again.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0700 FB $32
0820 AT $65/SO
0950 GL $28
1005 FB $50
1200 AT $65/SO
1556 AT SO/SO/$186
1830 FB $32
1925 AT $28/$56
1950 GL $27

And here's PDX to SPK:

0700 FB $62 via Seattle
0820 AT $192/SO/$594 chng at Seattle
0950 GL $77 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $46/--/$183

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

Another look at Amtrak in the low capacity - high demand era. This for Sunday, June 12th, as of Thursday evening, June 9th.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $50
0820 AT SO/SO
0950 GL $27
1005 FB $50
1200 AT SO/SO
1500 FB $50
1556 AT SO/SO/$216
1830 FB $28
1925 AT $65/$85
1950 GL $26

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $82 via Seattle
0820 AT SO/SO/SO chng at Seattle
0950 GL $64 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/$274

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

 

[Rover]

https://abc30.com/gas-station-manag...ell-rancho-cordova-california-cheap/11958150/
RANCHO CORDOVA, Calif. -- The manager who misplaced a decimal point at a Northern California gas station pricing premium gas for just 69 cents a gallon has now been fired.

The manager at the Shell gas station in Rancho Cordova, Calif., accidentally moved the decimal point to the wrong spot.

Hundreds of drivers ended up getting the cheap gas for several hours before the mistake was discovered costing the gas station $16,000.

 

[Willbridge]

Another look at Amtrak in the low capacity - high demand era. This for Sunday, June 12th, as of Thursday evening, June 9th.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $50
0820 AT SO/SO
0950 GL $27
1005 FB $50
1200 AT SO/SO
1500 FB $50
1556 AT SO/SO/$216
1830 FB $28
1925 AT $65/$85
1950 GL $26

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $82 via Seattle
0820 AT SO/SO/SO chng at Seattle
0950 GL $64 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $58/--/$274

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

Another look at Amtrak in the low capacity - high demand era. This for Sunday, June 19th, as of Saturday evening, June 18th.

Here's the line-up for the Cascades corridor from PDX to SEA:

0800 FB $28
0820 AT SO/SO
0950 GL $38
1005 FB $42
1200 AT SO/SO
1500 FB $50
1556 AT SO/SO/$249
1830 FB $32
1925 AT $65/$85
1950 GL $37

And here's PDX to SPK:

0800 FB $52 via Seattle
0820 AT SO/SO/SO chng at Seattle
0950 GL $89 chng at Stanfield
1645 AT $76/--/$183

AT = Amtrak Coach/Business/Sleeper, FB = Flixbus includes service charge rounded, GL = Greyhound Lines. SO = Sold Out.

In following this it makes one wonder what rail ridership would be like if there was more capacity.