Fares for trip I am on have climbed about 25% in one month

[denmarks]

I purchased my roomette tickets for the following over a month ago.

Chico - Sacraments - Bus

Sacramento - Chicago - CZ

3 nights in Chicago

Chicago - Sacramento - CZ

Sacramento - Chico - Bus

It will start on May 1. The price has climbed about 25% in one month. I'm glad I got them when I did but is such a large increase normal? At this rate it may be 50% by the time they sell out. There are only 4 roomettes left coming back but the price going and coming are the same.

 

[Anderson]

(1) Yes, price movements like this are normal. By comparison, have you ever watched airline ticket price movements?

(2) From what I can tell, the roomette charge can range from $314 (where I presume you bought it) to $650, plus the coach fare ($130, I think). The jump from $314 to $428 is normal.

(3) There are probably more than four roomettes left. The site indicates how many are left at a given price, not overall.

 

[Triley]

Supply and demand as with most travel venues. The more fares sold, the higher the fare goes. You said it yourself, only four roomettes available for the trip, almost two months away. When I took the CZ from Denver to Chicago, when I called in to buy my ticket while on-board there were still 7 roomettes left after I purchased mine.

Edit: Good point, I didn't think of how there may be more rooms available. A cheat way to do this is start a fake booking and say you have 8 adults traveling. Then see how many roomettes it will let you book (it will start at 4, so click the drop down and see how high it goes. Of course of it says it's sold out, there's less than 4 rooms available.

 

[niemi24s]

A 25% increase means the fare(s) have increase by one bucket as each higher bucket is usually very close to 25% above the other. The only time you'll see fares change less than that is when the prices of all the buckets are changed - f'rinstance, they all went up about 1% in the middle of January. If you make checks on a daily basis, you may find the fares going up and or down several times over the next 7 weeks. Some believe fares will only increase as the travel date approaches, but that's based on an overly simplistic idea of supply and demand and not based on the facts. The fact is they can (and often do) decrease too.

 

[KmH]

For an early May Los Angeles, CA to Alpine, TX trip I booked January 4 on the Sunset Limited the price of a roomette has more than doubled (2.25x) - as of today.

Coach fare has gone up 20% in the same time.

If ya snooze (book close to your travel date), ya lose (pay a lot more).

 

[niemi24s]

If ya snooze (book close to your travel date), ya lose (pay a lot more).

Sometimes you do - other times you don't.

My personal rule of thumb regarding Amtrak fares: there are no rules of thumb! :blink:

 

[PaulM]

Edit: Good point, I didn't think of how there may be more rooms available. A cheat way to do this is start a fake booking and say you have 8 adults traveling. Then see how many roomettes it will let you book (it will start at 4, so click the drop down and see how high it goes. Of course of it says it's sold out, there's less than 4 rooms available.

The system designers are on to this trick. They made sure all but the first passenger type has no default, forcing you to make 7 selections before it will do anything..

 

[Triley]

Edit: Good point, I didn't think of how there may be more rooms available. A cheat way to do this is start a fake booking and say you have 8 adults traveling. Then see how many roomettes it will let you book (it will start at 4, so click the drop down and see how high it goes. Of course of it says it's sold out, there's less than 4 rooms available.

The system designers are on to this trick. They made sure all but the first passenger type has no default, forcing you to make 7 selections before it will do anything..

Which is why I say there's 8 seniors instead, which defaults all passengers to senior of course.

 

[niemi24s]

My personal rule of thumb regarding Amtrak fares: there are no rules of thumb! :blink:

And to demonstrate my rule of thumb, here's a small sampling of fare buckets (1 = lowest, 5 = highest, - = sold out) for Roomettes on some LD trains starting tomorrow for 10 days:

EB 2,1,1,1,5,5,5,5,4,5

CZ 5,1,1,4,-,3,2,1,2,5

SWC 1,1,1,3,3,-,2,1,1,1

CONO 3,-,1,-,-,5,-,2,3,4

CL 3,2,3,2,3,-,2,2,1,4

LSL 2,1,1,5,1,2,1,2,1,2

SM 3,3,4,5,4,4,3,2,3,3

CS 4,2,5,2,5,1,4,4,4,3

So sometimes a booking for the next day is low bucket, sometimes high bucket. But this only goes out 10 days into the future - how about 10 months? The following are the Roomette buckets (1 = lowest, 5 = highest, - = sold out) for the first Monday of this and the next 9 months:

EB 2,5,1,1,3,5,5,3,2,2

CZ 5,3,2,4,3,4,4,3,2,2

SWC 1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,1,1

CONO 3,-,2,1,2,1,3,1,1,1

CL 3,1,1,1,1,3,-,1,1,1

LSL 2,1,3,2,2,4,4,4,2,2

SM 3,2,2,1,1,1,1,1,2,2

CS 4,2,1,5,4,4,3,2,1,1

See the pattern? No? Why it's as plain as the nose on your face! :giggle:

 

[niemi24s]

But perhaps the best rules of thumb should be based on the averages of all the 8 trains for each of the days in the previous post. So here is the average Roomette bucket (1 = lowest, 5 = highest) on all those 8 trains:

• For the 10 days from 6 through 15 March: 2.9, 1.6, 2.1, 3.1, 3.5, 3.3, 2.7, 2.4, 2.4, 3.4

• For each first Monday through December: 2.9, 2.1, 1.6, 2.0, 2.3, 3.0, 3.1, 2.1, 1.5, 1.5

To me, this all confirms my rule of thumb about how Amtrak fares fluctuate - there is no rule of thumb.

Q: Anyone see a pattern upon which to base a rule of thumb in any of this?

 

[denmarks]

Revision as of 4/4/17

The cost of the trip has increased 100% from $941.60 to $1851.30. Wow! One month left.

 

[Lonestar648]

Revision as of 4/4/17

The cost of the trip has increased 100% from $941.60 to $1851.30. Wow! One month left.

This is why you purchase Amtrak and airline tickets early. The same goes for other travel sites, like hotel or rental cars. The business travelers who have to book last minute pay the high prices providing the big profit for the travel industry.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Revision as of 4/4/17

The cost of the trip has increased 100% from $941.60 to $1851.30. Wow! One month left.

This is why you purchase Amtrak and airline tickets early. The same goes for other travel sites, like hotel or rental cars. The business travelers who have to book last minute pay the high prices providing the big profit for the travel industry.

Sometimes that's true and sometimes it's not. Some of my cheapest trips were last minute purchases during low and shoulder seasons. For instance, a super early purchase of high season and/or holiday travel can be twice or even three times as much as last minute low season non-holiday travel.

 

[niemi24s]

Revision as of 4/4/17

The cost of the trip has increased 100% from $941.60 to $1851.30. Wow! One month left.

This, I think, means the Roomette upcharge has gone from low bucket to high bucket. If you can find the time, check the fare daily and see what happens. Easier yet, set up an AmSnag Fare Watch. Chances are the fare will go down and up several times in the next four weeks and where it will end up is anybody'ls guess - maybe even low bucket!

With Amtrak, you can't always sometimes tell what you least expect to happen the most. :blink:

 

[RSG]

Edit: Good point, I didn't think of how there may be more rooms available. A cheat way to do this is start a fake booking and say you have 8 adults traveling. Then see how many roomettes it will let you book (it will start at 4, so click the drop down and see how high it goes. Of course of it says it's sold out, there's less than 4 rooms available.

This is a great tip. It also works without encumbrence on the mobile app as well (ie, no need to choose ticket/passenger type until after booking is selected).