Ok, now that I'm actually somewhere I can sit down and think, I've got some thoughts:
1) Pulling up the July Monthly Performance Report, Amtrak was projecting $1,968m in ticket revenue. The final numbers came out to $2,020m, $52m ahead of the budget, or about 2.5% above those projections. This is particularly interesting because it would, all else being equal, bring Amtrak to within $10 million of federal operating support, more or less erasing the variance projected in July. Moreover, it seems quite possible that this number closed a bit further with F&B. This is very, very good if it comes to pass, as it reduces the likelihood of at least some possible cuts in the short term.
2) Overall PPR was $64.66 for FY12, as opposed to $62.67 for FY11. This is an increase of about 3.2%, which isn't bad considering the rather sluggish economy. Going by category:
A) The Acela saw PPR rise from $145.50 to $149.64, an increase of 2.85%, slightly above the (rather bouncy) trend of the last few years; I will be exceedingly surprised if this doesn't break $150 in FY13 (another similar year would put PPR in the $153-154 range). Yes, this was less than the increase we saw last year; blame this on Regional cannibalization. It's good to see that the Acela eked out an increase for the year; it missed setting a record by about 3500 riders.
B) The NE Regionals saw PPR rise from $65.32 last year to $66.84, an increase of 2.33%, again in line with the last few years. At least some of the increase in ridership altered the market mix here, and I don't know how the PHL-PVD/BOS markets compare with overall average fares. Worth noting as well: Ridership on the Regionals alone jumped by barely under 500,000.
C) Short Corridors saw the biggest percentage increase in PPR, from $28.26 to $30.37, a jump of just under 7.5%. However, PPR increases were pretty tame on most routes; the exceptions were the Surfliner (from $19.85 to $22.19, up 11.79%), the Vermonter (an increase of somewhere around 15% due to un-truncation for part of the year), the Keystones, and the Piedmonts. The most notable laggard was the Wolverine (the only regional route to take a revenue hit, and one of only two to suffer a noticeable dip in PPR; the other was the Quincy route).
D) LD trains saw a shock-loaded jump in ridership and an associated boost to PPR and revenue. PPR rose from $106.43 to $108.95, a rise of 2.4%. Interestingly, ridership was up on all trains, and PPR was up on all but three (the Starlight, the Eagle, and the Chief; the last of these also suffered a revenue decline amid a slight increase in ridership). Naturally, this was all a bit of a muddle because of the disruptions last year.
3) Particular route observations:
A) The NEC is chugging along nicely, though capacity issues do seem to be setting in and Amtrak is now stuck balancing fare increases with pricing itself out of the market.
B) The Virginia routes' combined ridership broke 800,000. However...*drumroll*
-The WAS-NPN route had a better last two months of the year than its first ten months (110,248 riders vs. 92,442 riders for the two months this year and last year, an increase of 19.3%[!]). Some of this was likely "disruption rebound" from the hurricane last year, but it's still a doozy of a jump.
-The Lynchburger saw 29,399 riders in the last two months of this year 27,657 last year, an increase of 6.3%. It's not what we're used to seeing, but ridership growth seems to have resumed at a much tamer pace after a few rough months. Still, a caveat applies about the disruption last year. I suspect the Lynchburger will be in a stable holding pattern somewhere around 180,000-200,000 for a little while pending any service changes.
-Combined passenger revenue for the routes was about $45.7 million. What is staggering to consider, from what I can tell, is that the VA routes are likely both in the black AND are bringing in about 3/4 the revenue of the Surfliners with 1/3 the ridership. Granted, they're very different operations, but it's still staggering.
-Combined ridership was up nearly 90,000 (22,856 and 66,336 for the LYH and NPN routes respectivelt) Considering what happened with the WAS-NPN route at the end of this year, it seems quite believable that with the NFK extension coming on line as well, total state ridership could believably hit 900,000 next year (though my bet is for somewhere in the 860-870k range, as I think Norfolk is going to be a bit of a mediocrity given the pre-5AM departure).
C) The Carolinian may well have ended the year in the black as well...it almost assuredly spent the last two months there, given that it went from +0.6% in revenue to +5.3% in revenue in two months. Similarly, it all but erased the YTD ridership deficit (ridership in those two months was 52,262 vs. 41,727, an increase of 25.2%[!]). Barring another major disruption next year, this might be a third profitable corridor train even before the new accounting hits it.
D) I know I've said it before, but I'll mention it again: The Adirondack is increasingly limited not by demand but by space on board. The negotiations between NY State and Amtrak here should be interesting, especially once the new facility goes in at Montreal and the nominal schedule time likely gets cut accordingly.
E) On the LD routes, just aboute everyone got a chance to recover from disruptions and/or knock-on effects thereof. However, comparing results to previous years:
-The Star and Meteor are both light-years above where they were five years ago, with combined ridership being just over 800k vs. approx. 620k in FY07. That there is no mention of records is a hint of just how far this service's ridership must have fallen under Warrington.
-The Palmetto's ridership was flat...but PPR was up solidly alongside the Silvers. Overall, the ex-Silver Service trio BARELY missed out on one million riders this year (999,218).
-The Cardinal is also up about as much as can be expected, considering capacity constraints, delays, and scheduling issues. One wonders what a daily train with consistent(ly good) OTP and a more standard set of equipment would do on this route.
-The Builder's rebound brought it to within about 12k of its 2008 record of 554,266 (and safely above FY10). Assuming that things continue apace in North Dakota and there isn't another major disruption, the Builder should easily break that record next year. Looking forward, I can't help but wonder if the Builder is even capable of 600k riders with its current equipment. Likewise, if there are predictable worker travel patterns in the oilfields in ND, it might behoove Amtrak to make an extra coach appear on those days if they can scrounge the car for it. Unless you get a serious airline boom in the state as well, Amtrak should have a lot of mileage to get out of this.
-The Cap is basically in park. Ditto the Chief, though in the latter case it may be a function of already high fares (the Chief's PPR exceeded all other LD trains save the Auto Train until last year; since then, it's hit a wall) and/or capacity in some markets. Further analysis will need to wait until the PIP comes out.
-The CONO got a solid rebound...from a disruption that didn't even induce a ridership decline. 253k riders has it chasing the Auto Train in terms of ridership...
-...and chasing the Texas Eagle, which is just burning up the charts. Checking the footnote, about 1/4 of the riders here are on the IL corridor, which may also be helping the CONO (which seems to have about 50k riders on its corridor as well). The Eagle is on fire; though PPR was off, I'm going to guess that this is down to a rise in corridor ridership (which is likely driving the ridership jump here). Considering the situation on the Chief, it seems quite plausible that the Eagle could catch it in the next few years in terms of ridership, if just because of the corridor situation.
-The Sunset is the Sunset. It's back over 100k for the first time since FY03.
-The Coast Starlight finally broke through its FY03 ridership levels. That this wasn't listed as a record is another hint at Warrington damage.
-The LSL is up pretty solidly.
-The Crescent is up as well, albeit only barely. I'm not sure what hit the NS line in the last few months, but something sure did.
-Finally, the Auto Train...PPR was $274.59 vs. $263.98 last year. Can't wait to see the PIP here, since it's pretty clear that Amtrak is using increased fares to (desperately) manage demand.
4) Looking forward, it's going to be pretty hard to break 32 million next year. A lot of the growth for this year was "shock loaded" into the system by all of the problems last year (LD disruptions plus Irene). That and the political environment are going to make for a bit more "exciting" of a ride than I'd like.
The Acela (and increasingly the NEC at large) are gushing money, and might well be able to power Amtrak through some rough spots. With losses on the state routes likely vanishing to negligibility (and then only due to calculation quirks) in the next few years and equipment rental charges (and maintenance revenue for state-owned cars) coming in to Amtrak, I can envision the need for federal support dropping off slowly. It's going to be a nerve-wracking ride, but I can see a situation where the numbers ultimately work out for Amtrak to be able to cut its operating subsidy.
The biggest jam seems to be the Acela situation...but seeing as the Acela is bringing in something like 40% more than it costs to run, if a bid can be found this should be a big hit. Failing that, Amtrak really needs to press to move the Acela II project ahead ASAP given that it's not likely they can beat but so much more capacity out of the current equipment.
One thought: Boardman has said he's not going to order more Superliners until Congress decides what it wants done with the LD trains. Sooner or later, I think Boardman and Amtrak are going to need to either:
A) Come up with at least a midsized order plan (i.e. perhaps 100 cars to supplement the Superliners) to present absent a clear direction just to keep the lights on and meet increasing demand, or
B) Come up with a plan to beef up the Viewliner order and convert some options around (i.e. baggage cars to diners or sleepers) and get the Next-Gen coach orders in line (they're working on a mock-up of one at Wilmington now) to convert one or more trains from Superliners to Viewliners. The TE/SL/CONO "complex" is the only real candidate for this, but it might be worth considering absent an unforseen event.
Coming from this is a practical question: Where's the ceiling on various LD routes in terms of ridership? I'm not sure how much more room there is for increasing ridership with the current equipment allocations...the Meteor seems likely to get "stuck" at 400,000 or so absent added cars; the Star might get past 450,000 due to turnover at Orlampa (though the FEC is set to make a hash of this situation in a few years), but the 100,000 increase that Amtrak projects from the Amtrak-FEC service implies substantial extra capacity on that route. The LSL is doing better, but it also has a pretty solid mid-route turnover point at Buffalo. And of course, the Zephyr has all sorts of complicated issues that have come up elsewhere (where ridership demand west of Reno and east of Grand Junction and/or Denver are causing issues).
The same question begs on various corridors...the WAS-LYH corridor seems to be reasonably close to capacity (assuming a 7-car set most days, they're filling an average of around 2/3 of those seats by the time you hit the DC area...even allowing for some ALX turnover, considering how much boarding you get at WAS I can see the limit being seating rather than demand), and a number of other routes have seen explosive growth over the last few years (the Downeaster has added 140k riders in five years) and/or have known crowding issues and capacity limits (the Adirondack is squeezed on one side by border issues and on the other side by downstate traffic).
