Management issues of State funded services

[GDRRiley]

There are a few factors that could make this more bark than bite. For one Amtrak is the only operator with guaranteed access to freight tracks - obviously I don’t know what the specifics of the San Joaquins as far as track access but it’s a factor generally favoring Amtrak as an operator generally.

All California services have track access and priority based on paying for it. The state has millions a year up for grabs if BNSF and UP can keep trains above 85% OTP with most of the money not coming in till they hit 95%. This isn't overall OTP but what the freight railroads can affect.
We have guaranteed slots based on investments and agreements. For example the San Joaquin has more slots than it uses with 12 available but only using 6 or 7. While Martinez to Oakland has 24 slots with 17 being used by the state and 2 by amtrak LD trains.

Secondly Amtrak is the only operator that has legislative authorization to spend federal subsidies operating state supported intercity services provided the PRIIA provisions are followed. While the states pay the vast majority of costs for state supported routes via payments (which Amtrak considers revenue) Amtrak as a whole overall loses money on the business line even after taking into account state payments and a portion of the National Network account covers the federal subsidy for the state supported business line - it’s much lower than long distance but it’s still a sizable chunk of change north of $100 million. Commuter services that Amtrak has operated and lost contracts on are ancillary business activities not under the state supported line and have to be revenue positive as Amtrak is not authorized to spend federal money on such activities. Lastly Amtrak is the only operator that has its mission by law operating intercity passenger rail service and by definition is obligated to do so. Any other operator is going to want to make money on the enterprise and is under no obligation under its business charter to continue to operate the service. There maybe lines where a new operator is feasible and maybe the SJ is one - but it’s important to remember why Amtrak was created in the first place. If operators were lining up in droves with legitimate proposals wanting to operate trains all over the country then there wouldn’t be a reason to continue Amtrak at all. Pie in the sky proposals like Ameristar Rail for the NEC don’t count. Finally chopping it off Amtrak means separate ticketing for a standalone service. For a big enough market like Brightline’s that’s not going to be an issue - but the markets Brightline is looking at are uniquely suited for private operation.

I'd expect if CA leaves amtrak behind it gets run 1 of 2 ways. Like most commuter railroads where the crews are contracted out or with the state actually being smart and creating its own operating division.