That's what we're worried about. It is isn't the trainsets themselves. It is Amtrak's competence. What have they done in the last two decades to inspire confidence that they'll do things properly?
I think Amtrak has tacitly acknowledged this issue. These contracts with Siemens come with a TSSSA (Technical Support & Spares Supply Agreement) at added cost to Amtrak. The idea is that with someone from Siemens (technical support) hovering over the shoulder of the Amtrak crews, they'll be forced to do things properly.
Would it still carry the Amtrak brand name and be seen as an Amtrak train? Or would it turn into a Brightline type of thing, isolated from the rest?
With no connection to Amtrak, it would almost certainly not carry the Amtrak brand or be seen as an Amtrak train. The one exception might be Amtrak doing ticketing services for the route and allowing trips to be cross ticketed.
Thats a California wide thing not just that JPA. The states is getting tired of amtrak and so is looking at a few options. While unlikely the state could split then join all the operations into a single division under Caltrans and then do it themselves. Whats far more likely is bidding to run all of amtrak California.
Which given it will need a new name I'd propose taking Caltrain and folding them into BART
It's a California-wide thing, but the San Joaquin JPA is the most willing and able to break away. Very little (if any) infrastructure along the line is owned by Amtrak, the equipment is entirely owned by Caltrans, there's a maintenance facility along the route with the capacity to take on the work, and the staff of the SJJPA seems motivated to take on the job. The next domino most likely to fall would be the Capitol Corridor, but that would involve figuring out a sharing agreement for the Oakland Yard. It's owned by Caltrans, but operated by Amtrak. If both the San Joaquins and Capitol Corridor shift to other operators, there would need to be a sharing agreement. The Pacific Surfliner would be the hardest to break off. Some of the equipment is owned by Amtrak, some of the stations on the line are owned by Amtrak, the maintenance yard is owned by Amtrak, and all other maintenance yards along the route are at capacity.
Maybe they can contract everything out to DeutschBahn.
The most likely contract operator is Herzog Transit Services, which operates the ACE commuter rail line. ACE and the SJJPA share staff so there's a strong existing relationship. Herzog is also the operator of the ACE Yard in Stockton, which would become the primary maintenance facility for the San Joaquins.
Amtrak better get its act together. Losing this would be a huge embarrassment and financial disaster which could lead to other defectors.
Agreed. This is largely a situation of Amtrak's own making. The SJJPA has given plenty of warning (even Congressional testimony) that they were unhappy with Amtrak's opaque accounting. These State-supportive services generate a lot of revenue for Amtrak, and they also create a larger pool to split up overhead expenses. Amtrak is accused of using its opaque cost allocation to spread the expenses from one business line (NEC) unfairly across its other business lines that get more taxpayer support. Even if that's not true, each state-supported route that defects will mean that the remaining routes will need to carry more of the fixed overhead on their books. In other words, with each route that defects, the cost to run the remaining routes (state-supported, long-distance, NEC) will increase. It could quickly become a vicious cycle, especially if Amtrak doesn't have the ability to cut costs quickly.