https://kfgo.com/2023/12/11/feds-award-500k-for-northern-lights-express-passenger-rail-project/Am I correct in interpreting only getting $500k from the feds to study this as meaning that it won't be happening anytime soon?
Well, yes and no! Yes, because they didn't get any of the Federal-State Partnership capital/construction funding, so they can't (to my knowledge) get any until the next round of funding's announced around this time next year. (And so, construction and everything else prior to construction can't start).
No, because according to MN sources (All Aboard MN and others), the $500k will help update, as needed, the environmental impact and design studies (NLX got a FONSI in 2018 but apparently the environmental studies have gotten a little stale and need to be looked at...sigh), and other general pre-development study work. AAMN and advocates are hoping this updating won't actually take that long. Of course, if the project needs a new FONSI to move forward, that's another can of worms.
But regardless, if one definition "anytime soon" includes the next 2-ish years, then yes, not anytime soon! I've heard some are hoping for 2028 but I think anyone who says they know exactly how long the construction + equipment procurement could last is really stepping out on a ledge.
Construction for the NLX would include passing sidings, crossing improvements, misc. track/RR work, a station upgrade (TFS)+ major work (Duluth's old station), several presumably new-build stations, and more. The NLX is supposed to run at 90 mph top speeds, so whatever work's needed for that to happen (provided the project isn't watered down to 79 mph, which is highly unlikely at this point) will have to occure. So, the construction work required--although less than, say, Illinois' Chi - StL 110 mph upgrades--isn't insignificant.
*The annoyance with the NLX not getting the 80% federal match this year is that, after years and years of wrangling, the Minnesota legislature approved the full 20% match this past session, and now that money will have to sit for probably a few years before being used. Not good for showing progress for the politicians who fought tooth and nail for the funding for years, and any "delay" is red meat for the huge, angry anti-rail voter base in MN.