Regional airlines face closings, bankruptcy

[afigg]

There is a USA Today article titled "Regional airlines face closings, bankruptcy" about the difficult financial prospects for the regional feeder airlines which has relevance to the passenger rail market, even if the article is oblivious to that aspect.

Excerpt from the first paragraphs in the article:

Passengers hopscotching across the U.S. may book their trip on one of the major airlines such as United, but it's often smaller, regional carriers with such names as Colgan Air that do the flying.
Regional airlines operate half the nation's scheduled flights and are often the link between smaller communities and the national air service network.

But now, several of those carriers are being closed or are in bankruptcy court protection. They face significant challenges, as the big airlines they often fly for are phasing out smaller and costlier regional jets and cutting some low-traffic regional routes to focus on those that are more lucrative.

As a result, many smaller communities may lose some or all of their air service, and their residents will have to take longer drives to find a flight.

"We're going to see some airports go dark," says William Swelbar, research engineer for MIT's International Center for Air Transportation. "The highway is going to be the connection to the air network system."

Ok, so the business travelers, people on personal or vacation travel in many smaller cities and communities are now supposed to get used to driving 2,3,4 hours to the nearest largest airport? Yea, that will be an energy efficient substitute. :huh:

What are getting shut down are the 50 seat regional jets which were the hot new thing in the late 90s, back when oil was cheap. If the Brent Crude world market price continues to persistently stay above $100, $110 a barrel or bounce back above $100 after every short term market drop, the airline travel availability and afford ability that people have become accustomed to over the past 30-40 years will fade away. I wonder when there will be widespread realization that air travel options for many of the smaller and more distant cities are going to undergo severe contraction. With the implications that has for the economies in those cities.

 

[the_traveler]

Probably not. There will be an outcry for more EAS subsidies, and at the same time an outcry for less subsidies for Amtrak!

 

[John Bredin]

Some politicians keep blithely suggesting buses as an alternative to funding Amtrak, despite Greyhound increasingly abandoning small-town and off-Interstate stops and MegaBus serving only cities. :blink: These anti-Amtrak politicans picture the stop-everywhere bus system of the 1950s as still extant -- or at least they count on the average non-bus-riding American doing so.

The same politicians, despite the facts described by the OP, will predictably keep pretending that smaller cities have the same level of commercial air service, and the same fares, as the major-metro airports where most such politicans actually fly to/from.

 

[Anderson]

I'd like to remind everyone of some of the stories about emptying-out airports in various areas that we've seen posted on here. These stories are related...I'd compare this to a number of the RRs dropping their locals back in the 60s.

The big key here is cities /with/ rail service that are also leaking air service. For example, let's assume that the Roanoke extension happens and there's a further crash-off in air service to ROA and LYH. At some point, it's going to make sense to run an east-west train in Virginia to link to Richmond International via a bus service out of either RVR or RVM, and to Norfolk International (or Newport News International) via a bus link from NFK or NPN.

I know this is a "slightly special" case, but I don't think it will remain isolated forever. Particularly in states like IL, MI, NY, and CA, I see a shift towards rail-air trips (and indeed towards all-rail trips)...apparently, the number of complicated, indirect connection paths (as opposed to direct flights) in parts of the country is fueling a drive towards higher-end business operations just chartering or buying fractional parts of planes.

In some sense, I think the key is that sooner or later the EAS tangle is going to get to be too big and/or still be insufficient to serve the business community, and that's going to be a big plus in our column.

 

[saxman]

Thought I'd make a list of where Amtrak and EAS service is available for each route.

Empire Builder

Staples, MN (via Brainard ~30 miles away, MSP)

Devils Lake, ND (MSP)

Wolfpoint, MT (BIL)

Glasgow, MT (BIL)

Havre, MT (BIL)

California Zephyr

Burlington, IA (ORD, STL)

Hastings, NE (via Grand Island ~25 miles, MCI)

McCook, NE (DEN)

Southwest Chief

La Plata, MO (via Kirksville, STL)

Dodge City, KS (DEN)

Garden City, KS (DFW)

Kingman, AZ (LAS, PHX)

Texas Eagle

Malvern, AR (via Hot Springs, DAL and MEM)

Walnut Ridge, AR (via Jonesboro, STL)

Crescent

Hattiesburg/Laurel, MS (MEM)

Meridian, MS (ATL)

Cardinal

Prince, WV (via Beckley, IAD)

White Sulpher Springs, WV (via Greenbriar Airport, ATL, IAD)

Staunton, VA (IAD)

Others

Merced, CA

Hanford, CA (via Visalia)

Quincy, IL

Plattsburgh, NY

Altoona, PA

Johnstown, PA

Lancaster, PA

Rutland, VT

A few others that don't require EAS subsidies but still have service:

La Crosse, WI

Fargo

Grand Forks

Minot

Williston

Whitefish

Pasco

Wenatchee

Elko

Grand Junction

Lincoln

Yuma

Del Rio

Lake Charles

Beaumont

Bloomington-Normal

Springfield, IL

Chico

Redding

Klamath Falls

Erie

Longview

Lafayette

...just to name a few

Also thought it interesting that no cities along the Sunset Limited route are EAS, nor the CONO or the Coast Starlight.

 

[Anderson]

I think one thing blurring the picture in a few cases is that EAS money going to places like Staunton has an aim not at Staunton, but at folks further in the mountains (such as Bluefield, for example).

 

[saxman]

I think one thing blurring the picture in a few cases is that EAS money going to places like Staunton has an aim not at Staunton, but at folks further in the mountains (such as Bluefield, for example).

Very true. Thats why I included some airports that were within a 30 mile range or so of Amtrak stops.

 

[Anderson]

I think one thing blurring the picture in a few cases is that EAS money going to places like Staunton has an aim not at Staunton, but at folks further in the mountains (such as Bluefield, for example).

Very true. Thats why I included some airports that were within a 30 mile range or so of Amtrak stops.

Fair enough. I think I tallied the numbers one time, and there are a few areas where the EAS subsidies could easily pay for a corridor-style train into the nearest major city. It's too bad there's not an rail equivalent on top of Amtrak's "general" pot of money.

 

[jebr]

I think one thing blurring the picture in a few cases is that EAS money going to places like Staunton has an aim not at Staunton, but at folks further in the mountains (such as Bluefield, for example).

Very true. Thats why I included some airports that were within a 30 mile range or so of Amtrak stops.

Fair enough. I think I tallied the numbers one time, and there are a few areas where the EAS subsidies could easily pay for a corridor-style train into the nearest major city. It's too bad there's not an rail equivalent on top of Amtrak's "general" pot of money.

What examples do you have? While I'm not terribly knowledgeable about the EAS system, my one experience would make me question this logic...here in Sioux City the EAS grant is for $1.5 million/year. I don't see any commuter rail operation running on that kind of subsidy, even if capital investment is excluded.

 

[Anderson]

I think one thing blurring the picture in a few cases is that EAS money going to places like Staunton has an aim not at Staunton, but at folks further in the mountains (such as Bluefield, for example).

Very true. Thats why I included some airports that were within a 30 mile range or so of Amtrak stops.

Fair enough. I think I tallied the numbers one time, and there are a few areas where the EAS subsidies could easily pay for a corridor-style train into the nearest major city. It's too bad there's not an rail equivalent on top of Amtrak's "general" pot of money.

What examples do you have? While I'm not terribly knowledgeable about the EAS system, my one experience would make me question this logic...here in Sioux City the EAS grant is for $1.5 million/year. I don't see any commuter rail operation running on that kind of subsidy, even if capital investment is excluded.

The example I tallied up was in Nebraska, where you have four EAS cities within about an hour of either the UP line or the BNSF line eating up about $8m in subsidy. Running either a daylight "B Train" (i.e. cafe and coaches) or acquiring a waivered DMU set from somewhere (think Budd RDCs as your model, though I'd want to see at least limited OBS...running a cafe-coach might also make sense, too) and operating that from Denver-Omaha on either route would probably provide similar service (albeit slower) and net a bit of business near the endpoints and from other stops which could be served. The other three cities in Nebraska are close enough to the old CB&Q Alliance-Denver line (which I do not know the status of, to be fair) that you could run another set along there, though there the numbers are a lot tighter because the subsidies are smaller. I think Kansas provides a second example of this...the key tends to be where you pile up 3-5 stops in a cluster.

Edit: I'll go over some numbers quickly. First of all, the 9-10 hour Omaha-Denver run would, in terms of time in transit, likely be on par with the Vermonter's operation north of NYP/NHV (which lists at about $10 million for the year). I'm assuming no further extension, even if a run out to Des Moines would probably pump up CR. So to get this in under $8 million you'd only need 20% CR. Second, depending on the route chosen, you'd likely have a decent pile of Omaha-Lincoln business, and possibly some more that could be gleaned from local stops. The Denver end is a bit more troublesome...if you accept a somewhat longer running time via UP's route, you can add corridor business along the line towards Greeley, but this may also add considerable time to the train's operation.

 

[NW cannonball]

What about Minot ND? is it subsumed under Devil's Lake?

Theres a big ABF there also. Maybe the Duty Van carries everybody here to there.

Right now can't find anything with most web search engines about what is the duty van - strange

 

[Ryan]

The duty van is what the duty driver uses to come pick you up at the train station when you arrive in Minot.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Some politicians keep blithely suggesting buses as an alternative to funding Amtrak, despite Greyhound increasingly abandoning small-town and off-Interstate stops and MegaBus serving only cities. :blink: These anti-Amtrak politicans picture the stop-everywhere bus system of the 1950s as still extant -- or at least they count on the average non-bus-riding American doing so.

The same politicians, despite the facts described by the OP, will predictably keep pretending that smaller cities have the same level of commercial air service, and the same fares, as the major-metro airports where most such politicans actually fly to/from.

I don't think buses should replace trains, as the latter is much more comfortable for long trips, but I think they are great for SD travel and replacing lost RJ service. Taking a train then tranferring to a bus to your final destination is quite convienient and very similar to the mainline jet-to-RJ trips while more efficient.

edit: errors, no ieSpell.

 

[Anderson]

Some politicians keep blithely suggesting buses as an alternative to funding Amtrak, despite Greyhound increasingly abandoning small-town and off-Interstate stops and MegaBus serving only cities. :blink: These anti-Amtrak politicans picture the stop-everywhere bus system of the 1950s as still extant -- or at least they count on the average non-bus-riding American doing so.

The same politicians, despite the facts described by the OP, will predictably keep pretending that smaller cities have the same level of commercial air service, and the same fares, as the major-metro airports where most such politicans actually fly to/from.

i don't think buses should replace trains, as the latter is much more comfortable for long trips, but I think they are great for SD travel and replacing lost RJ service. Taking a train then tranferring to a bus to you final destination is quite convienient and very similar to the mainline jet-to-RJ trips while more efficient.

I'm all for supplementing Amtrak rather than replacing it. To explain, I'd like to see Amtrak try to work out interline agreements both to connect cities not on the Amtrak network and to connect reasonably close cities that are a clunky link. As an example, I'd like to see a Cocoa-Orlando bus run at the present time.* I'd like to see a cross-Georgia bus option of some sort made available (i.e. SAV-ATL) to avoid the slightly crazy connect-through-four-states sort of gaps. In general, if a city has more than about 50,000 people and is within about two hours of an Amtrak station, I'd like to see a bus link at least examined. For larger cities, I'd extend that at least modestly. I recognize that some cities won't work, yes, but I'd like to see the "old college try" put in here.

*And of course, see this replaced with a crosstown ORL-MCO bus if the FEC service adds a Cocoa stop. With JAX, I'd like to see a crosstown operation to the FEC to/from as many trains as possible to encourage FEC riders not able to make a time on the Amtrak FEC operation but able to make an FEC train that can reasonably link to another Amtrak train to make that connection, and vice versa.

 

[jis]

I'm all for supplementing Amtrak rather than replacing it. To explain, I'd like to see Amtrak try to work out interline agreements both to connect cities not on the Amtrak network and to connect reasonably close cities that are a clunky link. As an example, I'd like to see a Cocoa-Orlando bus run at the present time.* I'd like to see a cross-Georgia bus option of some sort made available (i.e. SAV-ATL) to avoid the slightly crazy connect-through-four-states sort of gaps. In general, if a city has more than about 50,000 people and is within about two hours of an Amtrak station, I'd like to see a bus link at least examined. For larger cities, I'd extend that at least modestly. I recognize that some cities won't work, yes, but I'd like to see the "old college try" put in here.

*And of course, see this replaced with a crosstown ORL-MCO bus if the FEC service adds a Cocoa stop. With JAX, I'd like to see a crosstown operation to the FEC to/from as many trains as possible to encourage FEC riders not able to make a time on the Amtrak FEC operation but able to make an FEC train that can reasonably link to another Amtrak train to make that connection, and vice versa.

This is an important point. I am putting in a scope clarification comment for NEC Future requesting that this sort of intermodalism and inter-agency through ticketing both train to train and train to bus be explicitly included in the Tier I EIS.

 

[NW cannonball]

The duty van is what the duty driver uses to come pick you up at the train station when you arrive in Minot.

So - the "duty van" is the military equivalent of the "hotel shuttle" from airport to lodgings.

 

[Ryan]

Not just hotel shuttle, pretty much any official errand running. Go pick these parts up from the base repair shop, take the Captain to a meeting, run out and get a couple of pizzas for the duty section, that sort of stuff.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Some politicians keep blithely suggesting buses as an alternative to funding Amtrak, despite Greyhound increasingly abandoning small-town and off-Interstate stops and MegaBus serving only cities. :blink: These anti-Amtrak politicans picture the stop-everywhere bus system of the 1950s as still extant -- or at least they count on the average non-bus-riding American doing so.

The same politicians, despite the facts described by the OP, will predictably keep pretending that smaller cities have the same level of commercial air service, and the same fares, as the major-metro airports where most such politicans actually fly to/from.

i don't think buses should replace trains, as the latter is much more comfortable for long trips, but I think they are great for SD travel and replacing lost RJ service. Taking a train then tranferring to a bus to you final destination is quite convienient and very similar to the mainline jet-to-RJ trips while more efficient.

I'm all for supplementing Amtrak rather than replacing it. To explain, I'd like to see Amtrak try to work out interline agreements both to connect cities not on the Amtrak network and to connect reasonably close cities that are a clunky link. As an example, I'd like to see a Cocoa-Orlando bus run at the present time.* I'd like to see a cross-Georgia bus option of some sort made available (i.e. SAV-ATL) to avoid the slightly crazy connect-through-four-states sort of gaps. In general, if a city has more than about 50,000 people and is within about two hours of an Amtrak station, I'd like to see a bus link at least examined. For larger cities, I'd extend that at least modestly. I recognize that some cities won't work, yes, but I'd like to see the "old college try" put in here.

*And of course, see this replaced with a crosstown ORL-MCO bus if the FEC service adds a Cocoa stop. With JAX, I'd like to see a crosstown operation to the FEC to/from as many trains as possible to encourage FEC riders not able to make a time on the Amtrak FEC operation but able to make an FEC train that can reasonably link to another Amtrak train to make that connection, and vice versa.

I agree exactly. Other great options would be a MEM-LRK-OKC connection that apparently can't have train service without troublesome detours. Even then it probably won't happen in the near future. Others would be DEN-Cheyenne, ABQ-ELP, SAB-MTR, IND-STL, SNB-SAN, it just goes on and on.

 

[jebr]

Some politicians keep blithely suggesting buses as an alternative to funding Amtrak, despite Greyhound increasingly abandoning small-town and off-Interstate stops and MegaBus serving only cities. :blink: These anti-Amtrak politicans picture the stop-everywhere bus system of the 1950s as still extant -- or at least they count on the average non-bus-riding American doing so.

The same politicians, despite the facts described by the OP, will predictably keep pretending that smaller cities have the same level of commercial air service, and the same fares, as the major-metro airports where most such politicans actually fly to/from.

i don't think buses should replace trains, as the latter is much more comfortable for long trips, but I think they are great for SD travel and replacing lost RJ service. Taking a train then tranferring to a bus to you final destination is quite convienient and very similar to the mainline jet-to-RJ trips while more efficient.

I'm all for supplementing Amtrak rather than replacing it. To explain, I'd like to see Amtrak try to work out interline agreements both to connect cities not on the Amtrak network and to connect reasonably close cities that are a clunky link. As an example, I'd like to see a Cocoa-Orlando bus run at the present time.* I'd like to see a cross-Georgia bus option of some sort made available (i.e. SAV-ATL) to avoid the slightly crazy connect-through-four-states sort of gaps. In general, if a city has more than about 50,000 people and is within about two hours of an Amtrak station, I'd like to see a bus link at least examined. For larger cities, I'd extend that at least modestly. I recognize that some cities won't work, yes, but I'd like to see the "old college try" put in here.

*And of course, see this replaced with a crosstown ORL-MCO bus if the FEC service adds a Cocoa stop. With JAX, I'd like to see a crosstown operation to the FEC to/from as many trains as possible to encourage FEC riders not able to make a time on the Amtrak FEC operation but able to make an FEC train that can reasonably link to another Amtrak train to make that connection, and vice versa.

They'll have to do a better job with interlining than they currently do, at least in the Mountain West. Right now Amtrak simply sells the ticket, but if Amtrak is late, you're SOL until the next bus comes (they come every 12 hours, usually.)

 

[Anderson]

I'm all for supplementing Amtrak rather than replacing it. To explain, I'd like to see Amtrak try to work out interline agreements both to connect cities not on the Amtrak network and to connect reasonably close cities that are a clunky link. As an example, I'd like to see a Cocoa-Orlando bus run at the present time.* I'd like to see a cross-Georgia bus option of some sort made available (i.e. SAV-ATL) to avoid the slightly crazy connect-through-four-states sort of gaps. In general, if a city has more than about 50,000 people and is within about two hours of an Amtrak station, I'd like to see a bus link at least examined. For larger cities, I'd extend that at least modestly. I recognize that some cities won't work, yes, but I'd like to see the "old college try" put in here.

*And of course, see this replaced with a crosstown ORL-MCO bus if the FEC service adds a Cocoa stop. With JAX, I'd like to see a crosstown operation to the FEC to/from as many trains as possible to encourage FEC riders not able to make a time on the Amtrak FEC operation but able to make an FEC train that can reasonably link to another Amtrak train to make that connection, and vice versa.

This is an important point. I am putting in a scope clarification comment for NEC Future requesting that this sort of intermodalism and inter-agency through ticketing both train to train and train to bus be explicitly included in the Tier I EIS.

I already sent my comment in (about expanding the scope to ensure that all of VA got included, and that SEHSR was properly accounted for as well) and I don't want to put too many comments in, but this is a good point...especially in Pennsylvania and Maryland, but also in Virginia (where the Hampton Roads lines are a bit of a mush right now) and the western part of the state (Staunton, Roanoke, Blacksburg, and Harrisonburg all come to mind).

And of course, you raise a good point with the tangle of commuter agencies in the region...especially since Amtrak backstops for a bunch of them on weekends (MARC and SLE both leap to mind). Likewise, I can't help but wonder if Amtrak wouldn't get a boost from interlining with (for example) MNRR, LIRR, NJT, SEPTA, MARC, and VRE...though the biggest possible boost would be to replace the "self transfer" to/from the Downeaster with an actual MBTA ticket. To throw out another question (to which I don't know the answer), is there any "step up" provision between MNRR and the Empire Service on the Hudson Line?

 

[jis]

To throw out another question (to which I don't know the answer), is there any "step up" provision between MNRR and the Empire Service on the Hudson Line?

AFAIK No.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Some politicians keep blithely suggesting buses as an alternative to funding Amtrak, despite Greyhound increasingly abandoning small-town and off-Interstate stops and MegaBus serving only cities. :blink: These anti-Amtrak politicans picture the stop-everywhere bus system of the 1950s as still extant -- or at least they count on the average non-bus-riding American doing so.

The same politicians, despite the facts described by the OP, will predictably keep pretending that smaller cities have the same level of commercial air service, and the same fares, as the major-metro airports where most such politicans actually fly to/from.

i don't think buses should replace trains, as the latter is much more comfortable for long trips, but I think they are great for SD travel and replacing lost RJ service. Taking a train then tranferring to a bus to you final destination is quite convienient and very similar to the mainline jet-to-RJ trips while more efficient.

I'm all for supplementing Amtrak rather than replacing it. To explain, I'd like to see Amtrak try to work out interline agreements both to connect cities not on the Amtrak network and to connect reasonably close cities that are a clunky link. As an example, I'd like to see a Cocoa-Orlando bus run at the present time.* I'd like to see a cross-Georgia bus option of some sort made available (i.e. SAV-ATL) to avoid the slightly crazy connect-through-four-states sort of gaps. In general, if a city has more than about 50,000 people and is within about two hours of an Amtrak station, I'd like to see a bus link at least examined. For larger cities, I'd extend that at least modestly. I recognize that some cities won't work, yes, but I'd like to see the "old college try" put in here.

*And of course, see this replaced with a crosstown ORL-MCO bus if the FEC service adds a Cocoa stop. With JAX, I'd like to see a crosstown operation to the FEC to/from as many trains as possible to encourage FEC riders not able to make a time on the Amtrak FEC operation but able to make an FEC train that can reasonably link to another Amtrak train to make that connection, and vice versa.

They'll have to do a better job with interlining than they currently do, at least in the Mountain West. Right now Amtrak simply sells the ticket, but if Amtrak is late, you're SOL until the next bus comes (they come every 12 hours, usually.)

I know they come every twelve hours, on some routes it's every 24 hours, like on 364. But Greyhound can't really add an extra just for Amtrak passengers.

 

[Anderson]

Some politicians keep blithely suggesting buses as an alternative to funding Amtrak, despite Greyhound increasingly abandoning small-town and off-Interstate stops and MegaBus serving only cities. :blink: These anti-Amtrak politicans picture the stop-everywhere bus system of the 1950s as still extant -- or at least they count on the average non-bus-riding American doing so.

The same politicians, despite the facts described by the OP, will predictably keep pretending that smaller cities have the same level of commercial air service, and the same fares, as the major-metro airports where most such politicans actually fly to/from.

i don't think buses should replace trains, as the latter is much more comfortable for long trips, but I think they are great for SD travel and replacing lost RJ service. Taking a train then tranferring to a bus to you final destination is quite convienient and very similar to the mainline jet-to-RJ trips while more efficient.

I'm all for supplementing Amtrak rather than replacing it. To explain, I'd like to see Amtrak try to work out interline agreements both to connect cities not on the Amtrak network and to connect reasonably close cities that are a clunky link. As an example, I'd like to see a Cocoa-Orlando bus run at the present time.* I'd like to see a cross-Georgia bus option of some sort made available (i.e. SAV-ATL) to avoid the slightly crazy connect-through-four-states sort of gaps. In general, if a city has more than about 50,000 people and is within about two hours of an Amtrak station, I'd like to see a bus link at least examined. For larger cities, I'd extend that at least modestly. I recognize that some cities won't work, yes, but I'd like to see the "old college try" put in here.

*And of course, see this replaced with a crosstown ORL-MCO bus if the FEC service adds a Cocoa stop. With JAX, I'd like to see a crosstown operation to the FEC to/from as many trains as possible to encourage FEC riders not able to make a time on the Amtrak FEC operation but able to make an FEC train that can reasonably link to another Amtrak train to make that connection, and vice versa.

They'll have to do a better job with interlining than they currently do, at least in the Mountain West. Right now Amtrak simply sells the ticket, but if Amtrak is late, you're SOL until the next bus comes (they come every 12 hours, usually.)

I know they come every twelve hours, on some routes it's every 24 hours, like on 364. But Greyhound can't really add an extra just for Amtrak passengers.

In some cases, I agree. In others, however, depending on the load factors needed and whatnot, a contracted Thruway might well either:

A) Make money for the bus company (if they agree to show for the train, etc.) or

B) Increment revenue to Amtrak (if the cost of the contract is fixed and they can get enough fares off of that route to more than cover the costs).

I've mentioned this with respect to OSC, and it probably holds true for the other cities in Iowa. It might hold true elsewhere in the system as well, depending on service times and the like (it's not like Amtrak is adding the bus services in NC and expecting to lose money on the deal...the expectation is gaining around $700k on the service additions for the Silvers (not to mention laying potential long-term groundwork within NC) and about $1.1 million on the Crescent services. $1.8 million (and 50,000 added riders per year) is nothing to sneeze at.

I suspect the big question is "How many riders does a Thruway need to cover its costs?" I don't know the answer, but my best guess is that you need to add $400-600k/year in revenue to offset a not-long-distance bus (i.e. nothing over perhaps 200 miles), based on the expected added costs for services to the Crescent..

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

I'm all for supplementing Amtrak rather than replacing it. To explain, I'd like to see Amtrak try to work out interline agreements both to connect cities not on the Amtrak network and to connect reasonably close cities that are a clunky link. As an example, I'd like to see a Cocoa-Orlando bus run at the present time.* I'd like to see a cross-Georgia bus option of some sort made available (i.e. SAV-ATL) to avoid the slightly crazy connect-through-four-states sort of gaps. In general, if a city has more than about 50,000 people and is within about two hours of an Amtrak station, I'd like to see a bus link at least examined. For larger cities, I'd extend that at least modestly. I recognize that some cities won't work, yes, but I'd like to see the "old college try" put in here.

*And of course, see this replaced with a crosstown ORL-MCO bus if the FEC service adds a Cocoa stop. With JAX, I'd like to see a crosstown operation to the FEC to/from as many trains as possible to encourage FEC riders not able to make a time on the Amtrak FEC operation but able to make an FEC train that can reasonably link to another Amtrak train to make that connection, and vice versa.

They'll have to do a better job with interlining than they currently do, at least in the Mountain West. Right now Amtrak simply sells the ticket, but if Amtrak is late, you're SOL until the next bus comes (they come every 12 hours, usually.)

I know they come every twelve hours, on some routes it's every 24 hours, like on 364. But Greyhound can't really add an extra just for Amtrak passengers.

In some cases, I agree. In others, however, depending on the load factors needed and whatnot, a contracted Thruway might well either:

A) Make money for the bus company (if they agree to show for the train, etc.) or

B) Increment revenue to Amtrak (if the cost of the contract is fixed and they can get enough fares off of that route to more than cover the costs).

I've mentioned this with respect to OSC, and it probably holds true for the other cities in Iowa. It might hold true elsewhere in the system as well, depending on service times and the like (it's not like Amtrak is adding the bus services in NC and expecting to lose money on the deal...the expectation is gaining around $700k on the service additions for the Silvers (not to mention laying potential long-term groundwork within NC) and about $1.1 million on the Crescent services. $1.8 million (and 50,000 added riders per year) is nothing to sneeze at.

I suspect the big question is "How many riders does a Thruway need to cover its costs?" I don't know the answer, but my best guess is that you need to add $400-600k/year in revenue to offset a not-long-distance bus (i.e. nothing over perhaps 200 miles), based on the expected added costs for services to the Crescent..

I'd expect that a van or minibus could work just for Aamtrak connections, but a full-sized 102DL3 isn't. That thing carries 50-55 pax, there's no way to get hat much demand for train connections!