What route and how much is a ticket? A $43 ticket will cost less than 1500 points under the new plan. In any case, you'll be able to use a combination of points and cash under the new plan.
The most expensive ride (value fare) I can find for the San Joaquin that would qualify for the 1500 point redemption is $59 - EMY-LAX. That would include a bus segment. I haven't tried it, but I thought that two train segments wouldn't count as a special route.