Green Maned Lion
Engineer
I apologize in advance for the political nature of this post. I will try to confine my politics to the needed amount to discuss the key points I’m trying to bring out in this post. I ask the mod team, and not antagonistically, to contact me and discuss these points if they have objections, because I think the overall content of this post is essential for a free discourse among the members of this forum discussing the future of Amtrak and also evaluating their opinions in view of some important facts that many of them might not have considered, and I’d rather ‘clean up’ any problems then end the discussion.
I have always found this forum interesting for many reasons, but one in particular relates to this post. There has long been a feeling among transit advocates that “liberals” tend to favor trains (i.e. Democrats) and that ‘conservatives’ do not (i.e. Republicans). But this forum isn’t a bunch of foaming liberals. This forum is, for the most part, a decently representative microcosm of the American political landscape.
You do have some ‘foaming liberals’, (Hi, Ryan!) and I certainly lean left of center myself. But you also have some conservatives here, some of which I’d almost call foaming right wingers. You have urbanites, and people who live in the middle of nowhere. People who clearly have huge amounts of institutional education and relevant degrees, and people who have practically none. I criticize or consider negativity to none of this. I think the main thing I learned in higher education is that higher education is often a huge waste of time.
That is to say, Amtrak, transit, and travel is not a partisan wish. It might be a partisan issue in Congress, but it really isn’t in the reality of the American landscape.
But like a microcosm if the American public, this forum also shows a lot of the misconceptions of money, management, labor, unions, financing, accounting, politics, and realities that pervade our society and tend to make fixing its problems nearly impossible. In order to fix this country’s myriad problems, we must first understand what those problems are. The biggest problem with this country, though, ultimately, is that most of its problems are of great benefit to a select few people, and those people hold a great degree of power. It is in that group’s best interest to obfuscate all problems as carefully as possible, and that group also controls the means to do so.
When I said almost everything you read in media is inaccurate, I meant it. Media is not just stupid about reporting the honest facts about railroading and Amtrak; you just notice it because you happen to know enough about the subject to tell when someone is wrong. I find media is wrong in every subject I know enough about to judge them on; I am not particularly special and my areas of expertise are not all obscure- ipso facto, media is wrong almost always. You can get the basic gist of what went wrong from a story (E.G. a train and a car had a collision at a grade crossing and 2 people were killed) but almost all details reported are inaccurate either by design or incompetence (E.G. the train apparently had a death wish for the car, the conductor drove the train into it, the engineer reassured the passengers, etc.).
One of the distinct themes of American politics I see here most clearly is the backbone of our current financial problems. Americans have voted for a distinct government, and have mostly got it. They want a hell of a lot of service from their government. I include supposed small government proponents- they generally want “SMALLER GOVERNMENT” but fight any attempt to take away particular areas of said government they use. They ALL want to pay as little tax as possible. The poor and middle class either don’t want tax increases, or if they do, they want it only on the ‘1%’ they keep harping about. The wealthy either don’t want tax increases or want the middle class to ‘pay their share’.
You’ve got what you want, folks. Lots of services. An impressively small amount of tax (any objections to this statement better be backed up with sources showing me what developed countries have substantially lower tax rates!). And the resultant huge deficit that is currently less of an immediate problem than people scream about, but will eventually drive this country onto the rocks. (I bring this subject specifically up because it is relevant later in the topic.)
That is the basic background into which I launch into this discussion. I don’t intend to insult anyone here, beyond that point that almost all decision making on the point of anybody is done either on the basis of their self-interest, or the basis of what they think their self-interest will or should be.
Amtrak is in a point of transition. A major point of transition, and whether it will be of benefit or detriment, or both, depends on many factors, some of which we can affect, and some we can’t. If you want to contradict things I state as facts, please first consult the monthly and yearly financial reports and the current Strategic Vision Plan.
Facts:
Disconnected Opinion Points:
Problems:
While it is my intention to answer my own postulated points in another post, so as to differentiate how I want to do things with the realities (My opinions shown are what I think the realities are, not how I wish to deal with them) with the points I am trying to lay out to allow for a free discourse on those realities, I want to expound a little further with my last point.
Iowa Pacific, American Orient Express, and others have ran luxury trains priced in such a way to make a reasonable profit, that is, have their passengers pay the cost of offering the luxury services provided. I don’t know what Iowa Pacific’s Pullman service is doing, but Orient Express’s limited service behind existing trains was a dismal failure.
The cost of offering a $27.00 AmSteak on the Lake Shore Limited’s dining car is above $27. As I reasoned elsewhere the cost of offering labor for that steak is at least $10 a plate. The steak, its accouterment, as well as the Amsalad, sodas, coffee, and accompanying desert, is probably another $12-15. The cost to haul and maintain that dining car is probably another $6-7 a plate. I don’t know the cost of food spoilage, but I know its a huge cost for land-based restaurants. The variable cost of cheaper meals is probably no more than 10, and is probably directly accounted for by the price. Since the steak costs Amtrak $38-43 a plate to serve you, we can assume that Amtrak loses $11-15 a plate on long distance food.
Yes, traditional full service dining cars have always been a loss leader. Granted. But that is the whole point of this post. Innovative solutions must be found. We have to come to grips with the reality that the current model, if we stick to it, will result eventually in the death of the long distance network. We are not here to cling to long held ideals of how railroads used to be run and how you’d like them to be. That long held ideal costs money, such that the last real attempt to provide it long-term (American Orient Express) failed. If you want that kind of service, be prepared to spend a few grand a night per person or more. But we are not here to discuss that.
We are here to discuss how Amtrak can position its long distance service in a way that does the following:
Political climate:
We need to consider the basic political climate we currently reside in, which I will sum up with the following list.
I have always found this forum interesting for many reasons, but one in particular relates to this post. There has long been a feeling among transit advocates that “liberals” tend to favor trains (i.e. Democrats) and that ‘conservatives’ do not (i.e. Republicans). But this forum isn’t a bunch of foaming liberals. This forum is, for the most part, a decently representative microcosm of the American political landscape.
You do have some ‘foaming liberals’, (Hi, Ryan!) and I certainly lean left of center myself. But you also have some conservatives here, some of which I’d almost call foaming right wingers. You have urbanites, and people who live in the middle of nowhere. People who clearly have huge amounts of institutional education and relevant degrees, and people who have practically none. I criticize or consider negativity to none of this. I think the main thing I learned in higher education is that higher education is often a huge waste of time.
That is to say, Amtrak, transit, and travel is not a partisan wish. It might be a partisan issue in Congress, but it really isn’t in the reality of the American landscape.
But like a microcosm if the American public, this forum also shows a lot of the misconceptions of money, management, labor, unions, financing, accounting, politics, and realities that pervade our society and tend to make fixing its problems nearly impossible. In order to fix this country’s myriad problems, we must first understand what those problems are. The biggest problem with this country, though, ultimately, is that most of its problems are of great benefit to a select few people, and those people hold a great degree of power. It is in that group’s best interest to obfuscate all problems as carefully as possible, and that group also controls the means to do so.
When I said almost everything you read in media is inaccurate, I meant it. Media is not just stupid about reporting the honest facts about railroading and Amtrak; you just notice it because you happen to know enough about the subject to tell when someone is wrong. I find media is wrong in every subject I know enough about to judge them on; I am not particularly special and my areas of expertise are not all obscure- ipso facto, media is wrong almost always. You can get the basic gist of what went wrong from a story (E.G. a train and a car had a collision at a grade crossing and 2 people were killed) but almost all details reported are inaccurate either by design or incompetence (E.G. the train apparently had a death wish for the car, the conductor drove the train into it, the engineer reassured the passengers, etc.).
One of the distinct themes of American politics I see here most clearly is the backbone of our current financial problems. Americans have voted for a distinct government, and have mostly got it. They want a hell of a lot of service from their government. I include supposed small government proponents- they generally want “SMALLER GOVERNMENT” but fight any attempt to take away particular areas of said government they use. They ALL want to pay as little tax as possible. The poor and middle class either don’t want tax increases, or if they do, they want it only on the ‘1%’ they keep harping about. The wealthy either don’t want tax increases or want the middle class to ‘pay their share’.
You’ve got what you want, folks. Lots of services. An impressively small amount of tax (any objections to this statement better be backed up with sources showing me what developed countries have substantially lower tax rates!). And the resultant huge deficit that is currently less of an immediate problem than people scream about, but will eventually drive this country onto the rocks. (I bring this subject specifically up because it is relevant later in the topic.)
That is the basic background into which I launch into this discussion. I don’t intend to insult anyone here, beyond that point that almost all decision making on the point of anybody is done either on the basis of their self-interest, or the basis of what they think their self-interest will or should be.
Amtrak is in a point of transition. A major point of transition, and whether it will be of benefit or detriment, or both, depends on many factors, some of which we can affect, and some we can’t. If you want to contradict things I state as facts, please first consult the monthly and yearly financial reports and the current Strategic Vision Plan.
Facts:
- A point we need to consider is the greatly aging ridership on the Long Distance Trains. It is aging, and we can’t ignore that, either in short term marketing, or long term effect. One of my single focal points as a transit advocate in New Jersey is trying to figure out ways to fight the fact that the advocacy is aging into the grave. I can’t count the number of times I have pissed off other members by asking them to look around the room and think about who in the room will be physically able to be there ten years hence.
- The food service losses in the long distance dining cars represent, according to an OIG report, 99% of the food service losses on Amtrak. In most cases (only Auto Train and Palmetto differ), labor costs alone are higher than the revenue from the car. Then we can add “commissary” (cost of actually providing the food) and equipment costs to that. In the current political climate, this is untenable. Also, it is unreasonable for anybody to postulate prices on a menu that fail to even cover labor costs are a ‘rip-off’.
- Equipment is wearing out. The Heritage cars are reaching the point of total structural failure (anyone referencing VIA’s similarly aged fleet can shove it- you are comparing a daily driver to a pampered classic) But assuming the Viewliner II order comes through, that problem is self-solving. The Amfleet I’s, however, are 38 years old (although admittedly almost completely rebuilt about 10 years ago), the Superliner Is are 35 years old (and have never received thorough overhauls), and the Amfleet IIs are 32 years old. Both their builders are long out of business, parts availability will be increasingly expensive. They still have some years of service ahead of them, including a period where they will be used as booster fleets. But Amtrak’s ability to maintain long distance service relies on replacing the Superliner Is and Amfleet I’s and either replacing or throughly reconfiguring the Amfleets into a from the ground rebuilt long distance shell.
- To maintain and expand service on the Northeast Corridor and its relevant feeders (Downeaster, Empire Service, Virginia Service, Keystone Service, Springfield Service) at its current levels of ridership and growth, Amtrak needs to purchase approximately 600 single level coaches to replace the Amfleet Is. There really is nothing wrong with the current equipment in effective design and function, nor would their be with a reconfiguration of the Viewliner shell into an Amfleet I style double-vestibule auto-door layout with similar facilities, so we are talking about 600 cars at about 2.5 million a piece, or $1.5 billion. I doubt Amtrak will have trouble getting congress to agree to that investment, or funding it internally.
- To preserve western Long Distance service cars approximating the functionality of Superliners will need to be ordered in the form of 150 coaches, 60 food service/lounge cars, and 70 sleepers, or 280 cars at… $3.5 million each? Call it a billion dollar investment.
- To preserve functionality and allow for capacity expansion on the single level long distance routes, Amtrak needs to have effectively new single level cars configured for long distance service. This requires cars with at least 3 restrooms, adequately large windows (if they are completely rebuilt, I’d assume they have to meet current regulations) and seating for about 60 passengers, with I’d say 250 coaches available for service, and 50 light duty food service cars. Amtrak could either order new coaches built on Viewliner shell specifications (forget the extra windows, though- that would obviously have to be sacrificed on the alter of overhead luggage storage), or take the aggregate of the Amfleet I and Amfleet II fleets and rebuild them into a single specification long distance car. You are either talking about 1.5 million a car or 2.5 million a car, or 450 million to 750 million. I personally suspect the logical approach is a fully replaced car. Therefore:
- Amtrak’s capital outlay on long-distance trains over the next ten years needs to be $1.75 billion.
Disconnected Opinion Points:
- If Amtrak is to run a long distance network of attractiveness to more than rail foamers and people who are stuck, it needs to offer a dining service substantially superior to the current cafe car.
- Long Distance trains require lounge space for passengers to utilize for relaxation.
- Lounges DO NOT NEED TO BE STAFFED OR SERVE ANYTHING.
- Traditional full service dining cars are not required. I’m talking about sit down, order all of it, be waited on, with linen table clothes and fresh flowers, grand china, gourmet meal service.
- Dining car service can and should be profitable, but will require a total rethink as to how to operate it.
Problems:
- The current Strategic Vision Plan and funding requests outline an intention to operate long distance trains using the same funding matrix put into place for the state supported corridors, only federally supported. This would provide funding for the Long Distance trains on a sustainable level, but would also give Congress the opportunity to manage exactly what is on those trains.
- Railfans/foamers are an important reason Amtrak exists. They also represent the single largest problem Amtrak faces. The old-school train riders who rode before Amtrak want Amtrak to be what they were familiar with. Luxury trains, providing full service dining cars, staffed lounge cars, full bar service, first class lounges, old fashioned sleeping car service, dome cars, and so on. If we are going to save the transportation functionality of the long distance network, something I consider of paramount importance, we need to change our point of view on that. Certain facilities are important for travel, but the point of this must be fundamentally functional transportation. Every step above that must be either financially self-supporting, or be as financially prudent as possible.
- Which leads into my rant up above about Americans and taxes. Americans want everything, so long as they don’t have to pay for it. That attitude has to fundamentally change among those who wish to go to the wall supporting Amtrak/Long Distance trains.
While it is my intention to answer my own postulated points in another post, so as to differentiate how I want to do things with the realities (My opinions shown are what I think the realities are, not how I wish to deal with them) with the points I am trying to lay out to allow for a free discourse on those realities, I want to expound a little further with my last point.
Iowa Pacific, American Orient Express, and others have ran luxury trains priced in such a way to make a reasonable profit, that is, have their passengers pay the cost of offering the luxury services provided. I don’t know what Iowa Pacific’s Pullman service is doing, but Orient Express’s limited service behind existing trains was a dismal failure.
The cost of offering a $27.00 AmSteak on the Lake Shore Limited’s dining car is above $27. As I reasoned elsewhere the cost of offering labor for that steak is at least $10 a plate. The steak, its accouterment, as well as the Amsalad, sodas, coffee, and accompanying desert, is probably another $12-15. The cost to haul and maintain that dining car is probably another $6-7 a plate. I don’t know the cost of food spoilage, but I know its a huge cost for land-based restaurants. The variable cost of cheaper meals is probably no more than 10, and is probably directly accounted for by the price. Since the steak costs Amtrak $38-43 a plate to serve you, we can assume that Amtrak loses $11-15 a plate on long distance food.
Yes, traditional full service dining cars have always been a loss leader. Granted. But that is the whole point of this post. Innovative solutions must be found. We have to come to grips with the reality that the current model, if we stick to it, will result eventually in the death of the long distance network. We are not here to cling to long held ideals of how railroads used to be run and how you’d like them to be. That long held ideal costs money, such that the last real attempt to provide it long-term (American Orient Express) failed. If you want that kind of service, be prepared to spend a few grand a night per person or more. But we are not here to discuss that.
We are here to discuss how Amtrak can position its long distance service in a way that does the following:
- Satisfies Congress.
- Provides a reasonable level of service and comfort for coach passengers.
- Provides an onboard experience that is reasonably enjoyable.
- Provides adequate facilities and amenities to cover a journey the length the trains run.
- Provides a level of upgrade in service for sleeping car passengers such to justify the cost of their tickets, GRANTING that the cost of providing sleeping car service is relatively high and the passengers don’t think that a reasonable price is the price of plane fare plus the price of a room at a cheap hotel plus the price of the food served.
Political climate:
We need to consider the basic political climate we currently reside in, which I will sum up with the following list.
- Amtrak is, in the grand scheme of things, basically irrelevant. It costs a basically irrelevant sum of money to operate, and is booted around as a political whipping boy because it costs very little, is not a significant source of political funding, and can be cut and boosted a little each year to either please financial hawks or rail using constituents without effecting anything important to congress critters. Its a low hanging fruit to use as a bi-partisan punching bag to direct peoples attention from real issues and the real problems that those who have power would rather the great unwashed not know about, or at least think about much.
- The Tea Party, largely funded and controlled by the Koch brother oil money, is in Congress and has a bizarre amount of control and power for something with a relatively fringe level of popular support. The Tea Party, being heavily oil funded, would naturally object to large rail projects that would actually get significant amounts of traffic off the road. That being said, I don’t think they view the long distance network under that guise because:
- The long distance network is, as far as driving and spending of oil money is concerned, less than irrelevant. A large number of the long distance network passengers would either ride the dog or stay home if the network was canned. Its affect to their bottom line, or anyones bottom line besides Amtrak’s, would be lost in the noise.
- Obama’s health care rollout and effectiveness, and especially popularity, has been a disaster. This has removed whats left of Obama’s basic power base, and increased the polarity of non-liberals against the democrat point of view.