# Xpress West



## The Davy Crockett

Have you checked out the Xpress West website recently? Looks nice, but it looks rather inactive in terms of updates. Unlike say, AAF, they do not have a 'Recent News & Posts" section. The only thing that looks new is the copyright date of 2013 at the bottom of the page.


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## leemell

They are mostly in a holding pattern waiting to see what the FRA is going to do with their loan request.


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## Michelle

How long does the FRA take to make a decision?


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## The Davy Crockett

From Xpress West's website:



> In December 2010, XpressWest submitted its RRIF loan application, which is currently being reviewed by the FRA’s Independent Financial Advisor. On average, the Federal Government’s loan evaluation process for substantial projects can take an average of 19 months to review. The XpressWest is no exception to this rule and as a result, expects the Federal Government’s process to be complete some time this year.


So let's see.... 12/10 to 1/13 = 25 months So in theory there should be some news coming as the site says "some time this year."

Which would be true...

Only thing is, what year was this written? :huh:


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## Anderson

Per the other posts/threads on the matter, we were expecting a decision to be handed down back in August (once Congress adjourned, so as to avoid hand-wringing and grilling on that front). That didn't materialize (obviously), and we've been waiting with baited breath since then. I can see holding until after either the election or the fiscal cliff stuff being at issue, but I'm not sure what the _actual _cause of the delays has been.


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## leemell

Anderson said:


> Per the other posts/threads on the matter, we were expecting a decision to be handed down back in August (once Congress adjourned, so as to avoid hand-wringing and grilling on that front). That didn't materialize (obviously), and we've been waiting with baited breath since then. I can see holding until after either the election or the fiscal cliff stuff being at issue, but I'm not sure what the _actual _cause of the delays has been.


I remember reading, on their website I think, that there has been a continual back and forth, mostly FRA asking for more info.


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## CHamilton

Congressional Republicans Try to Block Federal Loan for Vegas HSR


> XpressWest has been waiting to hear from the federal government about their $5.5 billion loan request to help construct the high speed rail project from Victorville to Las Vegas (eventually connecting to Los Angeles via Palmdale). If the lead Republican budget-writers have anything to say about it, however, that loan won’t ever be approved.
> 
> Last week Senator Jeff Sessions and Representative Paul Ryan wrote to Ray LaHood urging him to reject the XpressWest loan application. Sessions is the ranking Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, and Ryan is the chair of the House Budget Committee and former vice-presidential nominee. Both are strongly supportive of austerity, despite its colossal failure around the globe, and both oppose high speed rail.


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## Ryan

I would hope that Secretary LaHood will give the letter from these Republicans the due consideration that it deserves.


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## Anderson

I really have to wonder what there is to take this long to review in the loan process and how many RFIs the FRA must be making to drag things out for so long.


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## afigg

> XpressWest has been waiting to hear from the federal government about their $5.5 billion loan request to help construct the high speed rail project from Victorville to Las Vegas (eventually connecting to Los Angeles via Palmdale). If the lead Republican budget-writers have anything to say about it, however, that loan wont ever be approved.
> Last week Senator Jeff Sessions and Representative Paul Ryan wrote to Ray LaHood urging him to reject the XpressWest loan application.


Oh, good grief. Now the Republicans are trying to kill a private-public infrastructure project, which they are normally in favor of. The CA House Republicans representatives are trying to kill or stall the CA HSR project and now this. If it was a $5 billion loan to build a private toll road with the most dubious financial projections imaginable, Ryan and Sessions would not be doing this. LaHood should go ahead and approve the loan quickly before Ryan sticks language into an appropriations bills that undercuts the $35 billion RIFF loan program.


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## me_little_me

afigg said:


> XpressWest has been waiting to hear from the federal government about their $5.5 billion loan request to help construct the high speed rail project from Victorville to Las Vegas (eventually connecting to Los Angeles via Palmdale). If the lead Republican budget-writers have anything to say about it, however, that loan wont ever be approved.
> Last week Senator Jeff Sessions and Representative Paul Ryan wrote to Ray LaHood urging him to reject the XpressWest loan application.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh, good grief. Now the Republicans are trying to kill a private-public infrastructure project, which they are normally in favor of. The CA House Republicans representatives are trying to kill or stall the CA HSR project and now this. If it was a $5 billion loan to build a private toll road with the most dubious financial projections imaginable, Ryan and Sessions would not be doing this. LaHood should go ahead and approve the loan quickly before Ryan sticks language into an appropriations bills that undercuts the $35 billion RIFF loan program.
Click to expand...

Possibly they are thinking of these?

Solyndra, which went bust after receiving a $535 million loan guarantee from the Energy Department in 2009.

Abound Solar announced plans Thursday to file for bankruptcy and suspend operations, becoming the industry's latest government-backed firm to close its doors. The solar-panel manufacturer was approved for a $400 million loan guarantee by the Department of Energy in 2010, though the Department ultimately lent the company only $70 million.


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## Ryan

Yes, the solution to a loan not getting paid back is to never ever loan anybody money again.

That's a great plan for destroying the economy.


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## George Harris

Ryan said:


> Yes, the solution to a loan not getting paid back is to never ever loan anybody money again.
> That's a great plan for destroying the economy.


Nice fact free statement. Suggest you look at pictures of Solandra's facilities. This was not the sort of place you build if you are trying to get something off the ground. Way too lavish. If you are just starting up a business, you spend as little as possible on anything not necessary to product production and sales. Fancy front offices are not necessary. That operation looked like a scam from the beginning.

Victorville - Las Vegas? And people call the California High Speed "Nowhere to nowhere" because the first part they are building is in the middle? This Victorville to Las Vegas line should be called teh Harry Ried Express. It is that no more. Why should the Feds loan money to a questionable venture that benefits the Las Vegas casinos and not much of anything, if anything else?

If the Feds want to loan money to rail projects, there are plenty possible that are of real public benefit. Go for one or more than one of these.


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## Bob Dylan

I agree with George, there are Plenty of rail Projects that will Benefit People and not the Wealthy Casino Flim Flam Artists in Vegas! This is the Kind of Scam that gives All Rail Projects a Bad Name and Ammo to Wing Nut Politicians to Attack Projects that Benefit Regular People!!!


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## Ryan

George Harris said:


> Ryan said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, the solution to a loan not getting paid back is to never ever loan anybody money again.
> 
> That's a great plan for destroying the economy.
> 
> 
> 
> Nice fact free statement. Suggest you look at pictures of Solandra's facilities. This was not the sort of place you build if you are trying to get something off the ground. Way too lavish. If you are just starting up a business, you spend as little as possible on anything not necessary to product production and sales. Fancy front offices are not necessary. That operation looked like a scam from the beginning.
Click to expand...

I'm not going to get into the specifics of discussing a non-Amtrak, non-rail related political football with you, George.

I stand by my statement that the fact that loans have failed to be repaid is a good excuse to stop giving out loans in their entirety is pants on head retarded.

As for the merits of this particular line, the fact that two different private companies are looking to start rail projects on it says that there certainly is some potential. It's a shame that you can't set your personal and political bias aside and give things an objective look.


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## George Harris

Ryan said:


> George Harris said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ryan said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, the solution to a loan not getting paid back is to never ever loan anybody money again.
> 
> That's a great plan for destroying the economy.
> 
> 
> 
> Nice fact free statement. Suggest you look at pictures of Solandra's facilities. This was not the sort of place you build if you are trying to get something off the ground. Way too lavish. If you are just starting up a business, you spend as little as possible on anything not necessary to product production and sales. Fancy front offices are not necessary. That operation looked like a scam from the beginning.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I'm not going to get into the specifics of discussing a non-Amtrak, non-rail related political football with you, George.
> 
> I stand by my statement that the fact that loans have failed to be repaid is a good excuse to stop giving out loans in their entirety is pants on head retarded.
> 
> As for the merits of this particular line, the fact that two different private companies are looking to start rail projects on it says that there certainly is some potential. It's a shame that you can't set your personal and political bias aside and give things an objective look.
Click to expand...

I'm not the one that brought up Solandra, however it is a very good example of the sort of loan not to make. In fact, that loans that can be in part be considered of similar nature have not been repaid is exactly the sort of thing that any rational lender would be using in making a decision to not loan money. By the way, neither I nor the person who brought up Solandra did any name calling. Grow up.


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## Ryan

I must have missed the part of my posts where I said that wither one of you was calling people names... I love the irony of you telling me to stop doing something, then turn around and do it yourself. I'm plenty grown up, thanks.

I also don't really care who brought it up.

What exactly does it have to do with the loan for these guys?

It's not exactly news that some loans don't work out.


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## John R

If the Desert Xpress route is funded, built, and eventually fails, who would own that railway? Would it be a valuable asset for some entity?

Regarding the Desert Xpress loan, Government loans, by their nature, are partly partly financial and also partly "industrial policy" to encourage certain industries, such as "made-in-america" rail cars etc. One would expect a higher failure rate than traditional loans because of this dual purpose.

Regarding Solyndra, etc. every lender, government or private, MUST make "bad loans" occasionally. If a bank never made a bad loan it would be out of business, because every loan carries some risk, and if a bank never took any risk, it would never make a loan.

So, how does one evaluate and limit risk of failure of any loan, and in particular a one-of-a-kind railroad project. . .


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## leemell

John R said:


> If the Desert Xpress route is funded, built, and eventually fails, who would own that railway? Would it be a valuable asset for some entity?
> Regarding the Desert Xpress loan, Government loans, by their nature, are partly partly financial and also partly "industrial policy" to encourage certain industries, such as "made-in-america" rail cars etc. One would expect a higher failure rate than traditional loans because of this dual purpose.
> 
> Regarding Solyndra, etc. every lender, government or private, MUST make "bad loans" occasionally. If a bank never made a bad loan it would be out of business, because every loan carries some risk, and if a bank never took any risk, it would never make a loan.
> 
> So, how does one evaluate and limit risk of failure of any loan, and in particular a one-of-a-kind railroad project. . .


Also not mentioned in much of the discussion was that Solyndra was about making solar cells a lot cheaper by manufacturing them in cylinders. Bad for them and the Government was the Chinese came into the the market with arrays that are now about 40% of the price that was prevailing and that was the end of that and many more. Not defending Solyndra practices but the market had a lot to do with it to.


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## cirdan

John R said:


> If the Desert Xpress route is funded, built, and eventually fails, who would own that railway? Would it be a valuable asset for some entity?


If Desert Xpress failed, I guess the government would own the line.

Would that line be valuable? I think it would. They probablly wouldn't recover the full value of the loan, but if Desert Xpress fails by a narrow margin, then somebody else buying the line for that same margin less than it cost to build, should succeed.


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## jis

I am surprised that people are asking the rhetorical question about ownership if a passenger operation fails, especially in this Forum. Who owns the passenger operations of all railways today? That might give one a hint of who would end up owning if a passenger operation fails financially by some measure that is generally accepted, no? Either it is sold as scrap or someone picks up the operating subsidy among the various levels of government involved. Were you expecting something else to happen? In the same vein is Amtrak a valuable asset? Is it just all about just the money computation based on some human dreamed up allocation to the monetized, and unmonetized sectors and between government and private sector?

And the whole thing about Solyndra is just a red herring in this context IMHO. But mind you just IMHO and I am entitled to at least one.


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## leemell

jis said:


> I am surprised that people are asking the rhetorical question about ownership if a passenger operation fails, especially in this Forum. Who owns the passenger operations of all railways today? That might give one a hint of who would end up owning if a passenger operation fails financially by some measure that is generally accepted, no? Either it is sold as scrap or someone picks up the operating subsidy among the various levels of government involved. Were you expecting something else to happen? In the same vein is Amtrak a valuable asset? Is it just all about just the money computation based on some human dreamed up allocation to the monetized, and unmonetized sectors and between government and private sector?
> And the whole thing about Solyndra is just a red herring in this context IMHO. But mind you just IMHO and I am entitled to at least one.


I agree completely.


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## CHamilton

Nevada Senators Stand Up For XpressWest


> Last week we learned that two leading Congressional Republicans were trying to block approval of a $5.5 billion federal loan for the XpressWest high speed rail project that would connect Las Vegas to Victorville and eventually serve Los Angeles. This week, both of Nevada’s U.S. Senators – including Republican Dean Heller – rose to defend the project and the loan request:
> 
> 
> Senator Harry Reid says the Xpress West project is “something that we should do.”
> 
> Senator Dean Heller says the rail between Las Vegas and Victorville “promises a major shot in the arm” for Southern Nevada’s economy.
> 
> Reid’s support is not surprising, given that he has been a strong backer of the XpressWest project since 2010 and has no love lost for right-wingers Jeff Sessions and Paul Ryan, the two Republicans trying to block the federal loan.
> 
> But Heller’s support of XpressWest is somewhat surprising, given that many Republicans in the House and Senate are now ideologically opposed to high speed rail projects even when their benefits are obvious and local demand is great. Heller’s backing for XpressWest provides important cover to the Obama Administration on this loan proposal. Even though they should approve the loan regardless of what Republicans think, there’s no doubt that it helps if Obama and Ray LaHood can point out that the project has the bipartisan support of both Nevada Senators.


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## GG-1

Aloha

Many a local story blast the desert express. Just as many support the project. All of the support stories include eventual tie-in to the California High Speed System.

Personally I feel both a regular speed train similar to the Desert Wind and the Desert Express have merit. Since my Daughter lives near LA I have driven I-15 a number of times. Shortest drive time was 4.5 hours, longest was 9.45 hours. Have heard that some days close to 12 hours. To her house the mileage is 265 miles.

I have no clue how much it would cost to increase capacity on I-15. I suspect the cost would far exceed the rail cost. It is sad that we can not prepare for the future, and are seemingly always trying to catch up.


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## Anderson

One of the reasons I think that any such project in this area will likely be reasonably successful is that Vegas' population (going by Clark County, at least) has roughly doubled since the Desert Wind was axed. That gets non-tourist business, and the tourist business is also going to be helped by the often-expensive cost to drive between the locations plus the erratic times involved in the trip (both within the LA basin and on I-10/15 outside it).

To be fair, if I was given a choice between the Desert Xpress package, with its oddball terminus (Victorville or Palmdale) and what have you, and a Desert Wind (semi-)corridor project aiming for 3-5x daily frequency that serves LAX (and potentially one or more stops in the LA area), I'd probably choose the latter. But sadly, the latter doesn't seem to be happening (why it hasn't seriously been pursued, I'm not sure, but I'm inclined to blame CAHSR vacuuming all the attention CA has to spare up).

As to a "failure" of the DX project, let's not forget that there are several degrees possible there:
(1) The train covers operating costs and loan interest, but can't cover paying the loan back.

(2) The train covers operating costs, but can't cover debt service.

(3) The train fails to cover operating costs narrowly.

(4) The train fails to cover operating costs by a wide margin.

#1 and #2 probably result in the government taking an equity stake in the project during a bankruptcy. #3 may trigger a bankruptcy of some sort, but it and 1-2 would likely be eased eventually by some sort of extension down the Antelope Valley Line towards/all the way to LAX. And #4 would likely result in either a takeover by CAHSR (should that be moving along) or Amtrak not having to worry so much about replacing the Acelas (presuming that DX goes in for CAHSR/Acela II equipment).

For what it's worth, I expect #1 is the most likely result pending extension into the LA basin. Debt service is probably going to run at _least_ $150m/yr in interest; paying back $5.5bn is going to be a stretch as well absent an inflationary surprise. #2 is almost as likely, but I think the operation should be able to cover costs based on a lot of what I've seen, likely preventing 3/4 from happening.


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## me_little_me

The real question is who, except the government will have any skin in the game? Casinos? Nevada? Las Vegas? California? How much will private investors put up (and lose)?

And if the government puts its skin in, will it have first dibs on what is left? Will the banks get their money first and the government get what's left?

If the project fails and the government ends up with a set of railroad tracks partially there and half-completed stations, will it finish the job or will it end up being abandoned because a new administration won't continue it? The Republicans may no longer want it and the Democrats might say it only benefits the rich and the money should be spent on Medicaid.

If there is enough interest for two competing plans wouldn't it be smart for the government to tell the backers to fight it out among themselves and come up with a unified plan as two train plans to Las Vegas will just steal from each other and money will be wasted, whether private or public.


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## CHamilton

> High-speed rail project beset by political mine fields
> 
> Things were supposed to be settled by now.
> 
> Construction workers were supposed to be digging up corridors, pouring concrete, laying track and otherwise making the country’s first government-endorsed high-speed rail line rise out of the desert between Las Vegas and the Los Angeles exurbs.
> 
> On the wings of one project, Southern Nevada’s economy was supposed to be back to work.
> 
> But in the years since the XpressWest project (formerly Desert XPress) applied for an industry-backed federal loan to finance the venture, it has run into almost every conceivable political roadblock – and this month, one direct assault.
> 
> “The risks to the taxpayer from funding this project are untenable,” Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Jeff Sessions, the top-ranking Budget Committee Republicans in their respective chambers, wrote to Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood earlier this month. “We would urge the Administration to reject the XpressWest loan application and to direct its available RRIF funds to more worthy transportation projects.”
> 
> It’s the most scathing indictment yet of a project that has suffered from extraordinarily unlucky timing – and the direct attack has at least some of its supporters concerned that the pushback may relegate an already-beleaguered project even further to the back burner.
> ...
> But XpressWest’s main advocates are being cautious about dismissing the bluster from the budget committee Republicans too quickly because they have been down a similar road before.
> ...
> In theory, lawmakers and lobbyists familiar with ongoing negotiations say the Obama administration is on board with the XpressWest plan.
> 
> They are, at present, merely going back and forth about the interest rates and size of the loan. Anthony Marnell, the main force behind the high speed rail venture who has already put up $1.5 billion from private investors, wants an additional $5.5 billion from the Federal Railroad Administration’s Railroad Rehabilitation & Improvement Financing program. The $35 billion federal fund is financed by the railroad industry and has lent money to 33 rail projects since its inception, according to the railroad administration’s website.
> 
> The government, meanwhile, is pushing for a somewhat smaller loan, in the $4.5 billion to $5 billion range.
> 
> Either way, XpressWest would be the single largest loan disbursed by the program by far. The next-highest loan, made to Amtrak in 2011, was $500 million.
> 
> The terms of the loan, which was initially supposed to be awarded in mid-2012, are expected to be settled soon – a fact that partially inspired the letter from Ryan and Sessions.
> 
> In light of that letter, however, backers are somewhat concerned that an already-cautious government may become skittish about approving the loan as expected.


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## Anderson

Well, it seems that the loan application seems to have devolved into a FUBAR given how long it has dragged on. In 2012, it seemed to mainly be political considerations holding things up (congressional session timing, the election, etc.), but we're well beyond that now. It would be nice to know what's really going on behind the scenes.By

By the way, just an incidental question: Is CAHSR eligible for RRIF funding?


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## Aaron

Anderson said:


> By the way, just an incidental question: Is CAHSR eligible for RRIF funding?


Seems like it. From http://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0128:

"Eligible borrowers include railroads, state and local governments, government-sponsored authorities and corporations, joint ventures that include at least one railroad, and limited option freight shippers who intend to construct a new rail connection."


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## afigg

Anderson said:


> Well, it seems that the loan application seems to have devolved into a FUBAR given how long it has dragged on. In 2012, it seemed to mainly be political considerations holding things up (congressional session timing, the election, etc.), but we're well beyond that now. It would be nice to know what's really going on behind the scenes.By
> By the way, just an incidental question: Is CAHSR eligible for RRIF funding?


If the total amount to be raised is $7 billion, a $5.5 billion RRIF loan with $1.5 billion in private financing would represent 78.6% of the total. Sounds as if the US DOT and the FRA is seeking to reduce their exposure (financial and political) by asking Xpress West to put up a larger private equity share. A 70/30 split would be $4.9 billion in RRIF loans and $2.1 billion in private equity. Presumably if Xpress West defaults after the construction is completed or even mostly completed, the FRA loan would take precedence and ownership of all the property and the private investors would lose everything (but they would get a _big_ tax write-off).

As for CHSRA, I have read about them possibly applying for RRIF loans for future segments; they should be eligible. They currently are authorized to sell around $9 billion in state backed bonds for the HSR project and supporting/related projects (Caltrain electrification, etc), so they don't need RRIF loans for the present. There is also the possibility of getting future TIFIA government backed loans, if that or the proposed infrastructure bank are funded in future federal fiscal years.


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## leemell

Seems like they have decided to grant the loan and are just argu...eh..negotiating over the amount and interest.


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## cirdan

leemell said:


> Seems like they have decided to grant the loan and are just argu...eh..negotiating over the amount and interest.


is that your guess or has there been some news to that effect?


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## afigg

cirdan said:


> leemell said:
> 
> 
> 
> Seems like they have decided to grant the loan and are just argu...eh..negotiating over the amount and interest.
> 
> 
> 
> is that your guess or has there been some news to that effect?
Click to expand...

I think we can take a strong clue that the grant of the RRIF application is near because Rep. Ryan and Senator Sessions wrote a letter to LaHood attacking the potential loan to Xpress West. They would not have bothered to get political points with the anti-spending crowd, if there were no prospects of the loan being granted.
With the Senate and House just having passed a continuing resolution to fund the government for the remainder of FY2013, and Congress going on recess soon, there is a window for LaHood and the FRA to grant the RRIF loan while Congress is out of town. Cuts down on the opportunity for the Republicans to grand stand right after the grant award. (who otherwise are advocates for private-public transportation projects. Well, so long as it involves a highway or airport).


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## Blackwolf

I'm sure that a few others here have gotten this Email as well, but NARP is weighing in on this publicly now:



> The National Association of Railroad Passengers, the US High Speed Rail Association, Californians for High Speed Rail, and the Midwest High Speed Rail Association joined together to urge the U.S. Department of Transportation to consider the many benefits that modern passenger rail service would bring to the Los Angeles-Las Vegas corridor. The letter, addressed to Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, is reproduced below in its entirety.


And that letter to LaHood:



> March 20, 2013
> 
> The Honorable Ray H. LaHood
> Secretary of Transportation
> 1200 New Jersey Avenue, S.E.
> Washington, DC 20590
> 
> RE: Application of XpressWest for RRIF Loan
> 
> Dear Mr. Secretary:
> 
> The National Association of Railroad Passengers, the US High Speed Rail Association, Californians for High Speed Rail, and the Midwest High Speed Rail Association urge you to give full consideration to the following factors as you review the pending Railroad Rehabilitation & Improvement Financing (RRIF) loan application of XpressWest, the first segment of a new Los Angeles – Las Vegas high-speed line.
> 
> • Los Angeles-Las Vegas is the second busiest end-point pair in the United States—trailing only Los Angeles-San Diego. The completion of XpressWest will be a critical step toward meeting the President’s goal of connecting 80 percent of the American public to modern intercity passenger trains within 25 years.
> 
> • XpressWest will be a convenient, energy-efficient alternative to the heavily traveled Interstate-15, a congested and dangerous highway. Mid-desert traffic back-ups are fairly common. The initial 185-mile segment would have the capacity to divert more than two million annual automobile trips, saving an estimated 440,000 barrels of oil each year. The train would also provide a safer travel alternative: the Las Vegas-Los Angeles segment of Interstate 15 has been found to be one of the most dangerous highways in America, and a 2010 study found that 1,069 people died in 834 automobile accidents on the road over a 15 year period.
> 
> • It will help speed up and enhance the California high speed rail project with extensions to Palmdale (70 miles from Los Angeles; currently served by Metrolink commuter trains) where the two systems will seamlessly integrate, significantly increasing ridership on both systems, and increasing private sector interest in the California system to help fund further extensions.
> 
> • It will expand the market for American high-speed rail manufacturing.
> 
> • It is consistent with the desire of Americans for good train travel. This is reflected in the fact that Amtrak has set ridership records in nine of the last ten years. Moreover, as a recent Brookings Institution report noted, Amtrak ridership from 1997 to 2012 at 55% grew faster than domestic aviation ridership (20%), highway vehicle-miles traveled (16.5%), U.S. population (17%) and real gross domestic product (37%).
> 
> As you know, the RRIF Loan Program was established by Congress in 1998 specifically to help support development of the US rail system. Under the RRIF program, the Administrator of the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) of the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) is authorized to provide direct loans and loan guarantees out of a $35 billion pool of revolving credit.
> 
> XpressWest is well suited for this program. This project is ready to go today, having already gained environmental clearance and secured the needed rights-of-way. Private investors have already assembled $1.5 billion in funds to support the project.
> 
> With leadership from the private sector, we can be confident the project will be delivered quickly and efficiently, and managed with strong business practices. Because the nation’s high-speed rail network will be created through public-private partnership, this project offers the ideal model starter project to help move the nation’s new rail program forward.
> 
> Upon full consideration of the above listed factors, we believe this project has merits worthy of a RRIF loan. Thank you for your time and consideration.
> 
> Sincerely,
> 
> Daniel Krause, Executive Director, Californian’s for High Speed Rail
> 
> Ross Capon, President, National Association of Railroad Passengers
> 
> Rick Harnish, Executive Director, Midwest High Speed Rail Association
> 
> Andy Kunz, President, US High Speed Rail Association


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## leemell

afigg said:


> cirdan said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> leemell said:
> 
> 
> 
> Seems like they have decided to grant the loan and are just argu...eh..negotiating over the amount and interest.
> 
> 
> 
> is that your guess or has there been some news to that effect?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I think we can take a strong clue that the grant of the RRIF application is near because Rep. Ryan and Senator Sessions wrote a letter to LaHood attacking the potential loan to Xpress West. They would not have bothered to get political points with the anti-spending crowd, if there were no prospects of the loan being granted.
> With the Senate and House just having passed a continuing resolution to fund the government for the remainder of FY2013, and Congress going on recess soon, there is a window for LaHood and the FRA to grant the RRIF loan while Congress is out of town. Cuts down on the opportunity for the Republicans to grand stand right after the grant award. (who otherwise are advocates for private-public transportation projects. Well, so long as it involves a highway or airport).
Click to expand...

That is it exactly (I used "seemed" because of the implication). The pig doesn't squeal unless something is getting close.


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## cirdan

leemell said:


> afigg said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cirdan said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> leemell said:
> 
> 
> 
> Seems like they have decided to grant the loan and are just argu...eh..negotiating over the amount and interest.
> 
> 
> 
> is that your guess or has there been some news to that effect?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I think we can take a strong clue that the grant of the RRIF application is near because Rep. Ryan and Senator Sessions wrote a letter to LaHood attacking the potential loan to Xpress West. They would not have bothered to get political points with the anti-spending crowd, if there were no prospects of the loan being granted.
> With the Senate and House just having passed a continuing resolution to fund the government for the remainder of FY2013, and Congress going on recess soon, there is a window for LaHood and the FRA to grant the RRIF loan while Congress is out of town. Cuts down on the opportunity for the Republicans to grand stand right after the grant award. (who otherwise are advocates for private-public transportation projects. Well, so long as it involves a highway or airport).
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> That is it exactly (I used "seemed" because of the implication). The pig doesn't squeal unless something is getting close.
Click to expand...

Another interpretation (cynical, I know) is that they know its going to be turned down and are thus now making extra noise against it so they can later claim credit for its defeat.


----------



## Paulus

leemell said:


> Seems like they have decided to grant the loan and are just argu...eh..negotiating over the amount and interest.


Fred Frailey left a comment in one of his articles that the FRA doesn't actually reject anyone for RRIF, they simply keep coming back with more questions until they shut up and go away.


----------



## Anderson

I have to wonder about that being the policy (versus it sort-of happening that way). At some point (i.e. enough rounds of questions), a reasonably well-funded operation faced with that could probably find grounds to sue and force a decision (since sooner or later you run into a case of "you had three years to ask that question and it's nothing new").


----------



## Nathanael

me_little_me said:


> The real question is who, except the government will have any skin in the game? Casinos? Nevada? Las Vegas? California?


Yes, yes, yes, no, in that order.


----------



## Anderson

Yes, yes, yes, and depends. CA won't necessarily have skin in the game directly, but there is enough potential for a revenue split at Palmdale*, follow-through traffic from various destinations**, or track rent LAX-Palmdale*** that they will have a significant stake in the success of this line.

*To explain, if a Palmdale-Vegas ticket is $90 and an LAX-Vegas ticket is $120, CAHSR might get part or all of the $30 depending on who's actually running the train (i.e. like the ACL-FEC trains back in the 50s, or like the old California Zephyr).

**In this case, an SFO-Vegas passenger would have a ticket SFO-Palmdale-Vegas; the first segment would go to CAHSR and the second to Desert Express.

***And in this case, DX would just run the trains and get revenue, but pay CAHSR for using up slots LAX-Palmdale (or wherever else-Palmdale...I think we can envision one or more trains being run up the valley or down to San Diego if the demand exists or comes into existence).


----------



## Andrew

What is the probably that we get a decision on this project this upcoming summer?


----------



## Anderson

Probably mediocre (at best).


----------



## afigg

Andrew said:


> What is the probably that we get a decision on this project this upcoming summer?


According to this Las Vegas Review Journal article from mid-April, Xpress West has been approved for a loan of almost $5 billion, but has to raise additional private funding to qualify. Appears that Xpress West will have to come up with around $2 billion in private equity, not the $1.4 billion that was originally proposed. This article was posted today on rr.net, but has been around for 3 weeks and no one picked up on the news?

Excerpt



> WASHINGTON — Plans for a high-speed train connecting Las Vegas and Southern California have hit a money snag, Sen. Harry Reid said Tuesday.
> Reid, D-Nev., said backers of the XPressWest project are struggling to come up with funding to enable approval of a $5 billion government loan. Federal backing would make up the bulk of the $6.9 billion rail plan.
> 
> “We’ve had a few setbacks. We are still working hard on it,” Reid told reporters when asked about the status of the project after a meeting of Nevada’s members of Congress.
> 
> The Federal Railroad Administration has been weighing an application for a $5.5 billion loan since December 2010, when the project was known as Desert XPress.


----------



## Andrew

Could New Starts or TIFIA fund the remaining amount of money?


----------



## leemell

Seems like DX/XW should be able to get the casinos to commit to $500M more over the life of project construction considering the amount of construction going on even in the current economic condition.


----------



## afigg

Andrew said:


> Could New Starts or TIFIA fund the remaining amount of money?


No. New Starts is an FTA program for transit projects, not intercity passenger rail. And New Starts is probably only for state and local governments, not a private company. The TIFIA program provides government backed loans similar to RRIF loans. The point is that to qualify for a very large RRIF loan, Xpress West has to provide some private equity, put their skin into the game if you will.


----------



## Andrew

Well, it should not be too difficult for the remaining $600 million to be come up with. Could Tax Incremental Financing Bonds--which was used to fund the seven line extension in New York City--be the solution?


----------



## leemell

afigg said:


> Andrew said:
> 
> 
> 
> Could New Starts or TIFIA fund the remaining amount of money?
> 
> 
> 
> No. New Starts is an FTA program for transit projects, not intercity passenger rail. And New Starts is probably only for state and local governments, not a private company. The TIFIA program provides government backed loans similar to RRIF loans. The point is that to qualify for a very large RRIF loan, Xpress West has to provide some private equity, put their skin into the game if you will.
Click to expand...

They are already commiting $1.4b. This is $500M more.


----------



## Andrew

How far would the proposed terminal be built from "The Strip?"


----------



## leemell

Most of the four alternatives are near the Strip. The preferred alternative is across I15 from about the middle of the Strip.


----------



## afigg

leemell said:


> They are already commiting $1.4b. This is $500M more.


The RRIF application was submitted over 2 years ago. Some of the original backers who promised or likely vaguely promised to invest $1.4 billion may have withdrawn, their investment agreement expired or had to put their money elsewhere. Getting $2 billion in private equity financing together for a passenger rail project, something that has not been seen in the US for many years, is a challenge. Question is where are the major Vegas casino companies in this?
Edit: wording fix


----------



## leemell

Last time I looked into it there were five major casino conglomerates investing in it. They were not named but it sounds like the big players in Vegas. The guy running the show is a major Vegas contractor who has built many of the Strip building complexes. They probably haven't or couldn't withdraw as the RRIF application requires the funding details including almost certainly the names the investors.


----------



## Anderson

Also, let's be honest...$1.4bn is no small change. That's a pretty good new resort or two between the group. Likewise, these guys may have a good deal of revenue (and indeed, solid profits from a chain of hotels), but $500m is still a decent amount of money (not to mention opportunity cost) to put into a project like this. Not that they might not still put the money in, but I can see such a reply causing a careful evaluation of options.


----------



## Thomas

I believe that whichever casino employees are behind this probably know what they are doing. But, with that being said, I believe that this major infrastructure project has to be done. Xpress West might even have as large as an influence as Midtown Direct did when it was created in the 1990's for improved service into New York City.

Will people be able to buy stocks in Xpress West?


----------



## Anderson

Guest: That's an excellent question. I would not be surprised if, once things are up and running, there's a public offering of some sort (either to pay back construction loans, to allow the initial investors to realize some direct gains, or to fund further expansion). However, I don't expect that to happen until the operation is at least up and running and on a path to profitability, since I highly doubt that the investors would want to sell their stakes for too low a price.

One thing I will say is that there have been a lot of _very_ rich folks (Warren Buffet and Carlos Slim come to mind) who have been pushing HSR at times (Slim has even expressed an interest in investing in it), so there should at least in theory be capital pools to tap into. JR Central also seems interested in investing in the US as well. However, I also don't expect them to give away their money...so the wrangling over those funds will likely be fierce.

(Of course, I'm now imagining a world where Berkshire Hathaway ends up effectively taking this over...)


----------



## Andrew

Would China invest in this?


----------



## leemell

Well, California Gov. Jerry Brown was in China for two weeks recently and one of his chief subjects was investing in HSR, CAHSR specifically.


----------



## George Harris

leemell said:


> Last time I looked into it there were five major casino conglomerates investing in it. They were not named but it sounds like the big players in Vegas. The guy running the show is a major Vegas contractor who has built many of the Strip building complexes. They probably haven't or couldn't withdraw as the RRIF application requires the funding details including almost certainly the names the investors.


The casino operators would have a bigger view than just the railroad itself. They migh joyfully pour money into a railroad that they know will lose money if that feel that it will bring more people in that will be willing to hand over money in Las Vegas sufficiently to justify the cost of the railroad construction and operation. Also, they might figure that the operating cost will be worthwhile even if the original overall investment cannot be recouped. If they feel their loss on a bankruptcy of the railroad is tolerable, they would be more than willing to let it happen regardless of who else loses. After all, these guys are not exactly models of integrity. Remember, our government has shown itself more than willing to dump money into losers given the right political connections, and it is hard to be much better connected politically than Harry Reid.

There is a good historic example of this: The Florida East Coast Railroad. Henry Flagler built it up to encourage travel to south Florida with the objective of encouraging travel to south Florida where he had major interest in developing Miami and environs. He did not mind that the railroad lost money so long as the overall picture was positive for Flagler, and given the time, there was no possibility of government bail outs as there is now.


----------



## Anderson

Well, Flagler felt that the company as a whole would make money...land company and all. IIRC, the only big money-loser was the Key West Extension (which was an engineering mess as well). The main line wasn't a massive money-maker, but it didn't lose money and the land operations (sadly since split off) made up for it with a solid return on investment.

Actually, this is a sort of inverted version of the railroad resorts in NJ/MD/DE: The railroads built the resorts partly to encourage travel on their lines to/from them. Here, the resorts exist, an they're investing in the railroad to get people to them.

With that said, you do raise an interesting possibility: The casinos invest in the road, it ultimately goes bust under the debt load, but once that clears you have a modestly profitable entity that can be floated (after all, let's not forget how many railroads went bankrupt once construction was complete but which stayed in business).


----------



## SWendt

Of the two viable options out there, this one is by far the more costly and the more risky. The X Train will provide affordable service from Fullerton to Las Vagas whereas XpressWest will not connect to anything without an additional $1.5 billion extension. Anyone driving out to Victorville has already driven through the worst part of the trip, namely getting out of the LA basin. The X Train also has already secured rights for a good portion of its route. Track that is already in place, which is why the X Train could actually be running trains by the end of the year. X Train has already purchased equipment and has folks with real railroading and logistics experience. And they are doing it WITH PRIVATE MONEY. So, why should we loan Xpress West $5 billion dollars to build a brand new line that won't be completed for at least 3 or 4 years at the earliest and stops over 100 miles short of LA? Besides, because X Train has lower start up costs their chance of success are much higher, where the multi-billion dollar HSR is a huge gamble on a route that has always been lackluster at best.

I suspect that one reason Paul Ryan objects to this, as does Fred Frailey, is that there is no reason for the government to give a $5 billion loan to a company to provide an inferior service that a 100% privately funded company is already planning to provide for a lot less. This deal smells like a government subsidy to Las Vagas Casino operators. Will this really provide a $5 billion improvement in the everyday lives of the people of LA and LV?

Another disturbing fact about this and any money loaned to the CalHSR is that those billions are now NOT available to other projects that could provide a much more immediate and dependable benefit to many more people all across the US! Think what Amtrak could do with that amount of money! Think about what kind of improvement could be made to other PROVEN corridors! Increased track capacity on the Surfliner which could allow real express service and increased speeds. Added station platform capacity on the Capitol corridor to allow quicker stops. Or how about loaning the money to Amtrak for the NEC rebuild to allow it to reach its dream of actually running its Acelas at their designed speeds over the whole route in 5 years instead of 45 years!

There is just so much more railroading that could be done with the $5 billion than building a 180 mile railroad in the middle of the desert.


----------



## Andrew

But Xpress West is planned to eventually be linked to Palmdale, California. With high unemployment rates in the Southwest--and demand for an urgently needed and improved transportation corridor--Xpress West is an investment that will get the green light from Washington. Ridership will be justified and the corporations want it, too...


----------



## Paulus

SWendt said:


> Of the two viable options out there, this one is by far the more costly and the more risky. The X Train will provide affordable service from Fullerton to Las Vagas whereas XpressWest will not connect to anything without an additional $1.5 billion extension. Anyone driving out to Victorville has already driven through the worst part of the trip, namely getting out of the LA basin. The X Train also has already secured rights for a good portion of its route. Track that is already in place, which is why the X Train could actually be running trains by the end of the year. X Train has already purchased equipment and has folks with real railroading and logistics experience. And they are doing it WITH PRIVATE MONEY. So, why should we loan Xpress West $5 billion dollars to build a brand new line that won't be completed for at least 3 or 4 years at the earliest and stops over 100 miles short of LA? Besides, because X Train has lower start up costs their chance of success are much higher, where the multi-billion dollar HSR is a huge gamble on a route that has always been lackluster at best.


Not to defend XpressWest, but X-Train is a fraud.


----------



## leemell

X-Train is only expected to run on this schedule:

LA – Las Vegas Thurs & FRI
Departs Southern California Noon
Arrives Las Vegas 5 PM

Las Vegas – LA Sunday

Two departures:
Departs Las Vegas 1 PM
Arrives Southern California 6 PM

Departs Las Vegas 5 PM
Arrives Southern California 10 PM

AND, it is advertised as a party train.


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## Anderson

For a moment, if I were to design my ideal HSR service from the LA area to Las Vegas, I would probably run it from LAUPT to somewhere on/near the Strip in Vegas via Cajon Pass. I'd likely put 2-3 stations in along the way out of LA: Though not all trains would make all stops, I'd at least have the stops "on the line" and run different stopping patterns to cater to demand (and yes, I'd take intra-regional traffic...Ontario-LA is still sixty miles; if you can get someone to drop $30-40 for that ticket, go for it and just adjust pricing so local traffic can fill space on the train but doesn't crowd out through traffic). The question of extending "beyond" LAUPT toward either Santa Barbara or Anaheim would be open (and indeed, some of _that_ would come down to where my yards ended up being). After that, I'd have stops (assuming the routing cooperated) at Victorville and Barstow; again, these might only be made by a few trains per day. In Vegas, I would sincerely consider having two stops if I could get far enough into the area. One would be right by the strip; the other might be further into town or might be slightly suburban (and have additional parking), or might have a BWI-style airport link (given the low cost of flying to Vegas from a lot of places, I think you might actually get a decent amount of reverse business this way): Even if the second stop only tosses off a hundred passengers per day, at $100/one-way ticket that would still be $6-8 million/year.

Is this practical? Probably not...I shudder to think of what it would cost to run an HSR line through the LA basin these days, just from real estate acquisitions. Even settling for something like 125 MPH operation until you got out of the area would be problematic, not to mention finding space within the pass or blasting tunnels. But it's what the "ideal" service would be.

I think both trains have issues. I suspect that DX/XW's are more easily surmounted (the X-Train's twice-weekly schedule seriously limits its appeal for folks who might be in a position to "burn" a Monday, say over a holiday), but it's still going to be expensive as all get out to make anything work. Palmdale/Victorville are dubious stand-ins for LA and San Bernadino, and folks having to take a two-hour commuter train ride to Palmdale is going to be a big drag on business.


----------



## George Harris

Anderson said:


> Palmdale/Victorville are dubious stand-ins for LA and San Bernadino, and folks having to take a two-hour commuter train ride to Palmdale is going to be a big drag on business.


The entire point of Palmdale is to connect to the Calif HSR


----------



## Andrew

I still think that Las Vegas to Palmdale could work. A large parking garage would have to get built at Palmdale, though. In addition, businesses, such as Starbucks, could open at Xpress West's Train Stations, including in Las Vegas. This would generate more revenue for the railroad.

Does anyone know if Amtrak is involved with Xpress West?


----------



## Paulus

Andrew said:


> Does anyone know if Amtrak is involved with Xpress West?


Contracted to supply some operating crew if it ever happens.


----------



## afigg

Paulus said:


> Andrew said:
> 
> 
> 
> Does anyone know if Amtrak is involved with Xpress West?
> 
> 
> 
> Contracted to supply some operating crew if it ever happens.\
Click to expand...

You are confusing the X-train with Xpress West, Amtrak reportedly has an agreement to run the twice a week X-Train service. If Xpress West can get the funding, it will likely take up to 5 years to build the line and 2 stations. Xpress West has a long time to decide who will operate their trains. As an all new service over their own tracks, I would not expect the operator to be Amtrak or Amtrak employees under contract.


----------



## Paulus

afigg said:


> Paulus said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andrew said:
> 
> 
> 
> Does anyone know if Amtrak is involved with Xpress West?
> 
> 
> 
> Contracted to supply some operating crew if it ever happens.\
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> You are confusing the X-train with Xpress West, Amtrak reportedly has an agreement to run the twice a week X-Train service. If Xpress West can get the funding, it will likely take up to 5 years to build the line and 2 stations. Xpress West has a long time to decide who will operate their trains. As an all new service over their own tracks, I would not expect the operator to be Amtrak or Amtrak employees under contract.
Click to expand...

Whoops, yeah, sorry. Too many X's around about.


----------



## Andrew

How does a new transportation secretary in Washington impact the Xpress West Project?


----------



## Anderson

George Harris said:


> Anderson said:
> 
> 
> 
> Palmdale/Victorville are dubious stand-ins for LA and San Bernadino, and folks having to take a two-hour commuter train ride to Palmdale is going to be a big drag on business.
> 
> 
> 
> The entire point of Palmdale is to connect to the Calif HSR
Click to expand...

I know that's the intention, but the best-case scenario is that you've got an HSR link into the San Fernando Valley in 13 years (2026). Assuming that this project doesn't get tied up for five or six years before construction starts (and that CAHSR can keep to a schedule of some sort), that's going to be a rough couple of years at the start without that link, and a few more years before the line actually gets into LAUS (rather than just the San Fernando Valley).

Likewise, it's still not clear whether these folks intend to force a transfer at Palmdale (I haven't seen a clear indication that they're expecting to operate into LA, for example, and if they do you're likely to see some sort of fight over revenues and/or track access costs), or if they're going to be able to make a through-ticketing deal work absent a train run-through (while it would be in both groups interests to make something work, shall we discuss all the other times an agency has done something contrary to their interests?).


----------



## Andrew

Has there been any lobbying by the train manufactures, such as Bombardier, to convince the Government to give the green light for Xpress West?


----------



## john h

I got something from X-Train today, They will be hooking there trains to Amtrak exisiting trains, sounds pretty intresting.

I understand this is the thread to discuss this topic on.....


----------



## afigg

john h said:


> I got something from X-Train today, They will be hooking there trains to Amtrak exisiting trains, sounds pretty intresting.
> I understand this is the thread to discuss this topic on.....


No, X-Train and Xpress West are two entirely different ventures and companies. Xpress West is proposing to build a HSR service between Palmdale and Las Vegas. X-Train is proposing to run a conventional 79 mph max speed limited service train using rebuilt old rolling stock. You were sent to the wrong forum and thread.

For the X-Train, go to this thread in the General Rail Discussion forum. The X-Train thread was last posted to in December, 2012 which says something about how much news there has been about them.


----------



## GG-1

afigg said:


> john h said:
> 
> 
> 
> I got something from X-Train today, They will be hooking there trains to Amtrak exisiting trains, sounds pretty intresting.
> I understand this is the thread to discuss this topic on.....
> 
> 
> 
> No, X-Train and Xpress West are two entirely different ventures and companies. Xpress West is proposing to build a HSR service between Palmdale and Las Vegas. X-Train is proposing to run a conventional 79 mph max speed limited service train using rebuilt old rolling stock. You were sent to the wrong forum and thread.
> 
> For the X-Train, go to this thread in the General Rail Discussion forum. The X-Train thread was last posted to in December, 2012 which says something about how much news there has been about them.
Click to expand...

Aloha

A stockholder in this company sent me 2 releases which I will link to later today in that thread. Unless someone else beats me to it, :giggle:


----------



## Bus Nut

SWendt said:


> Of the two viable options out there, this one is by far the more costly and the more risky. The X Train will provide affordable service from Fullerton to Las Vagas whereas XpressWest will not connect to anything without an additional $1.5 billion extension.


Affordable... but slow. Amtrak's affordable but slow Western service bleeds cash so all I have to say is: good luck with that.



SWendt said:


> . So, why should we loan Xpress West $5 billion dollars to build a brand new line that won't be completed for at least 3 or 4 years at the earliest and stops over 100 miles short of LA? Besides, because X Train has lower start up costs their chance of success are much higher, where the multi-billion dollar HSR is a huge gamble on a route that has always been lackluster at best.
> I suspect that one reason Paul Ryan objects to this, as does Fred Frailey, is that there is no reason for the government to give a $5 billion loan to a company to provide an inferior service that a 100% privately funded company is already planning to provide for a lot less. This deal smells like a government subsidy to Las Vagas Casino operators. Will this really provide a $5 billion improvement in the everyday lives of the people of LA and LV?


It's a loan. Loans make an income. Why shouldn't the government loan money for economic development? The government's balance sheet will also benefit from transportation enhancements.

Remember when the railroads were build the US Government gave away tax dollars to the railroads as an incentive to get the roads built and up and running. Was that a silly decision, too?

HSR projects overseas have consistently made enough operating profit to pay back construction costs. Low speed rail usually can't manage to cover operations and maintenance, and forget about capital costs. That's why governments the world over operate low speed rail with subsidies. So, really, which one is the bigger risk?



SWendt said:


> Another disturbing fact about this and any money loaned to the CalHSR is that those billions are now NOT available to other projects that could provide a much more immediate and dependable benefit to many more people all across the US!


No. Not really. The RRIF loan program is underutilized.

That said, clearly this project has a lot of political support which may be skewing the picture a bit. But this loan doesn't take one dollar from other programs. IIRC, it's a secured loan once the project is built. The big risk is that default occurs before it is substantially completed. This may be why they are demanding the backers put more skin in the game.



SWendt said:


> Think what Amtrak could do with that amount of money! Think about what kind of improvement could be made to other PROVEN corridors!


I think Amtrak needs capital grants, not loans. Why? Because everything it does is so political that it can't make pure business decisions like a private entity. Its hands are tied. Study the history of the Acela.



SWendt said:


> Increased track capacity on the Surfliner which could allow real express service and increased speeds. Added station platform capacity on the Capitol corridor to allow quicker stops.


It's public... those towns the stations are in could always issue municipal bonds to rebuild their stations if they think it makes sense for them. From what little I follow of California rail it seems like the state is attempting to enhance service in a fiscally responsible way. They are financing CAHSR. If the Feds step in with that, it will not come from the RRIF program anyway.



SWendt said:


> Or how about loaning the money to Amtrak for the NEC rebuild to allow it to reach its dream of actually running its Acelas at their designed speeds over the whole route in 5 years instead of 45 years!


No way that happens in five years even with infinite money. Where to even start with that one...


----------



## Andrew

I highly doubt Xpress West will get the green light this year. Can Nevada put it on the ballot in the next election?


----------



## Eric S

Andrew said:


> I highly doubt Xpress West will get the green light this year. Can Nevada put it on the ballot in the next election?


What is the "it" that you are wondering if Nevada can put on the ballot? Are you suggesting state financing for the Xpress West proposal?


----------



## George Harris

Bus Nut said:


> It's a loan. Loans make an income. Why shouldn't the government loan money for economic development? The government's balance sheet will also benefit from transportation enhancements.
> 
> Remember when the railroads were build the US Government gave away tax dollars to the railroads as an incentive to get the roads built and up and running. Was that a silly decision, too?
> 
> .


Loans only make money if they are repaid *with interest*. Otherwise they are simply disguised grants.

For the most part the government did not give away tax dollars to the railroads, they gave land. Remember, the term was, "Land Grant" railroads.


----------



## jis

Bus Nut said:


> HSR projects overseas have consistently made enough operating profit to pay back construction costs. Low speed rail usually can't manage to cover operations and maintenance, and forget about capital costs. That's why governments the world over operate low speed rail with subsidies. So, really, which one is the bigger risk?


The bit about low speed rail not making money is not necessarily true in all cases. For example when the politicians can refrain sufficiently from doling out too much money to their constituents from the coffers of Indian Railways, it actually makes enough money to pay off the dividends that it is required to pay into the general exchequer of India and have a bit of balance left over. It is another matter that often Railway Ministers have great difficulty behaving responsibly, and some are outright idiots. :angry2:


----------



## afigg

Andrew said:


> I highly doubt Xpress West will get the green light this year. Can Nevada put it on the ballot in the next election?


What would Nevada put on the ballot? If the reports are correct, Xpress West did get conditional approval for their RRIF loan application for around $4.9 billion. The key condition is that Xpress West has to raise around $2 billion in private capital or about 29% of the $6.9 billion needed to build and start the Victorville to Vegas HSR line. My guess is that XW is being asked to put up 30% in private capital ($2.07B out of $6.9B) with the FRA RIFF loan providing 70%.

Xpress West is apparently working to line up some $2 billion in private equity, but the private equity has to be firmly committed and vetted. The FRA is not going to accept vague promises from an investor that they will put in X hundred million if their crude oil short pays off later in the year.


----------



## AlanB

George Harris said:


> Bus Nut said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's a loan. Loans make an income. Why shouldn't the government loan money for economic development? The government's balance sheet will also benefit from transportation enhancements.
> 
> Remember when the railroads were build the US Government gave away tax dollars to the railroads as an incentive to get the roads built and up and running. Was that a silly decision, too?
> 
> .
> 
> 
> 
> Loans only make money if they are repaid *with interest*. Otherwise they are simply disguised grants.
> For the most part the government did not give away tax dollars to the railroads, they gave land. Remember, the term was, "Land Grant" railroads.
Click to expand...

While of course there is no guarantee about the current & future loans, please let me point out that as far as the Fed is concerned those land grants were repaid in full by the RR's. The Fed marked that debt paid after WW II because of the RR's participation and efforts during WW I & WW II. Things like moving the troops at reduced costs, moving supplies & materials, etc.


----------



## Andrew

1. I meant that maybe Nevada voters could vote to use some of Nevada's tax revenue to fund the remainder of the funding.

2. What are different ways (besides ticket revenue) that Xpress West can repay the RRIF Loan?


----------



## George Harris

AlanB said:


> George Harris said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bus Nut said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's a loan. Loans make an income. Why shouldn't the government loan money for economic development? The government's balance sheet will also benefit from transportation enhancements.
> 
> Remember when the railroads were build the US Government gave away tax dollars to the railroads as an incentive to get the roads built and up and running. Was that a silly decision, too?
> 
> 
> 
> Loans only make money if they are repaid *with interest*. Otherwise they are simply disguised grants.
> For the most part the government did not give away tax dollars to the railroads, they gave land. Remember, the term was, "Land Grant" railroads.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> While of course there is no guarantee about the current & future loans, please let me point out that as far as the Fed is concerned those land grants were repaid in full by the RR's. The Fed marked that debt paid after WW II because of the RR's participation and efforts during WW I & WW II. Things like moving the troops at reduced costs, moving supplies & materials, etc.
Click to expand...

And that post WW2 "paid in full" was a long time after the fact. The true paid in full may well have pre-dated WW1 just from the taxes resulting from the increased value of the territories opened up to the world by better transportation.


----------



## Anderson

Andrew said:


> 1. I meant that maybe Nevada voters could vote to use some of Nevada's tax revenue to fund the remainder of the funding.
> 2. What are different ways (besides ticket revenue) that Xpress West can repay the RRIF Loan?


Presumably there will be incidental revenue from parking and station concessions (depending on the lot sizes, parking has the potential to rake in millions of dollars; leases on station concessions could rake in a decent bit more as well); you might potentially see some sort of station developments (an associated hotel somewhere on the LA end of things, for example...probably not on the Vegas end, though, considering who's bankrolling the project) and/or the purchase of a number of acres of land around the station(s) that could be developed in different ways or sold off later.


----------



## Andrew

Anderson said:


> Andrew said:
> 
> 
> 
> 1. I meant that maybe Nevada voters could vote to use some of Nevada's tax revenue to fund the remainder of the funding.
> 2. What are different ways (besides ticket revenue) that Xpress West can repay the RRIF Loan?
> 
> 
> 
> Presumably there will be incidental revenue from parking and station concessions (depending on the lot sizes, parking has the potential to rake in millions of dollars; leases on station concessions could rake in a decent bit more as well); you might potentially see some sort of station developments (an associated hotel somewhere on the LA end of things, for example...probably not on the Vegas end, though, considering who's bankrolling the project) and/or the purchase of a number of acres of land around the station(s) that could be developed in different ways or sold off later.
Click to expand...

Thus, it seems that the RRIF Program is indeed a very powerful one, and that, it is quite possible that no RRIF Loans have been made in 2013 due to the pending decision on the Xpress West Program... But with that being said, could RRIF be used for Amtrak's Gateway Program (to increase tunnel and train capacity between Northern New Jersey and New York City)?


----------



## Anderson

In theory, it could. Amusing as it sounds, I am fairly sure that the federal government wold have to somehow give Amtrak dispensation to accept a loan, such are the tangle of the post-Warrington restrictions.


----------



## Andrew

The thing is, without the RRIF Loan, I can not possibly imagine the Gateway Project ever getting built. NY Senator Charles Schumer claims that he will seek "bonds and loans" to pay for the Gateway Project. But, if the RRIF Program is not an option, HOW would the Fed's contribute?


----------



## Aaron

Apparently the RRIF loan for Xpress West is dead. Someone posted this to new thread, but a mod closed it, saying it's being discussed here. Well, it hasn't actually been discussed here, so I'm just copying and pasting their post into this thread.



> WASHINGTON — The government has halted its review of a multibillion-dollar loan request for high-speed rail line connecting Las Vegas and Southern California, a potentially staggering hit to the ambitious project.
> 
> The development is a blow for XPressWest, which has envisioned itself having a major role in the region’s future. The company’s plans call for electric trains whisking passengers at speeds up to 150 mph between Las Vegas and, for starters, Victorville, Calif.


More


----------



## Anderson

If they're dropping the loan, it took them fething long enough to say "no"...and even then, they don't have the decency to reject it.


----------



## Andrew

Can they use the $5.5 billion that was going to be given out from the RRIF Loan to the Gateway Project?


----------



## Anderson

If the RRIF fund was supposed to be a revolving fund (which I _think _it is/was set up as), I really have to wonder...just _when_ do they plan to loan this stuff out? It's been there nearly a decade, the $35 billion would basically pay for any HSR project proposed in the last decade (and could have been teamed with the stimulus stuff to do some truly _amazing_ things, with the stimulus providing the initial funding and RRIF carrying things through), but it's just...sitting there.


----------



## afigg

Andrew said:


> Can they use the $5.5 billion that was going to be given out from the RRIF Loan to the Gateway Project?


No. The FRA RRIF loan program is authorized to distribute $35 billion in US Treasury note backed loans that are intended to be paid back. The Gateway project is an entirely different deal from Desert Xpress. 
As for Desert Xpress RRIF application being 'suspended', I don't see how they can proceed without government backed loans. Will be very difficult to get all private sector financing for an infrastructure project of this size.


----------



## Andrew

f



afigg said:


> Andrew said:
> 
> 
> 
> Can they use the $5.5 billion that was going to be given out from the RRIF Loan to the Gateway Project?
> 
> 
> 
> No. The FRA RRIF loan program is authorized to distribute $35 billion in US Treasury note backed loans that are intended to be paid back. The Gateway project is an entirely different deal from Desert Xpress.
> 
> As for Desert Xpress RRIF application being 'suspended', I don't see how they can proceed without government backed loans. Will be very difficult to get all private sector financing for an infrastructure project of this size.
Click to expand...

But if that is the case, HOW can Amtrak's urgently needed Gateway Project get funded? (I understand that the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey would contribute, and maybe some money from New York City and NJ Turnpike Toll Authority--but what else)?!


----------



## Paulus

Begging Congress for grants. Though, honestly, it shouldn't be Amtrak paying for more tunnels, but NJT and LIRR since they're the ones who use almost all the capacity (and maybe, just maybe, they could learn to run through trains).


----------



## jis

Andrew said:


> f
> 
> 
> 
> afigg said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andrew said:
> 
> 
> 
> Can they use the $5.5 billion that was going to be given out from the RRIF Loan to the Gateway Project?
> 
> 
> 
> No. The FRA RRIF loan program is authorized to distribute $35 billion in US Treasury note backed loans that are intended to be paid back. The Gateway project is an entirely different deal from Desert Xpress.
> As for Desert Xpress RRIF application being 'suspended', I don't see how they can proceed without government backed loans. Will be very difficult to get all private sector financing for an infrastructure project of this size.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> But if that is the case, HOW can Amtrak's urgently needed Gateway Project get funded? (I understand that the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey would contribute, and maybe some money from New York City and NJ Turnpike Toll Authority--but what else)?!
Click to expand...

I hope that NJ will not break its own law again to try to dole out NJ Turnpike toll money for non NJ Turnpike work.
My guess is that the whole funding model for NEC will undergo a sea change before anything happens regarding Gateway or any of the other mega-projects, and it will bring in additional bond supported money with some interesting financial twists allowing additional private investments leveraged by the bond backed money, into the mix.

I don't think NJ will contribute any Turnpike money after having been burned once. They are actually not allowed to, but they thought they'd do so anyway by structuring it as a loan that is apparently never paid back - a brain child of the financial whiz Corzine, who is now probably going to finally land up in jail on another matter.  PANYNJ should contribute some significant money amounting to something like $3 to $5 billion perhaps over the lifetime of the project (my guess). But currently they are preoccupied with finishing the World Trade Center affair and raising the Bayonne Bridge.

For now, as far as Gateway goes, Amtrak and NJT will somehow scrounge together the needed $20 to $25 million per year to continue final design work and keep the core staff together, until the dust settles on how the big funding will be handled. I also doubt that NY City will be a large contributor. It will have its hands full well into the '20s recovering from ESA and SAS. OTOH, NY State might find some money, but hard to see from where.


----------



## Andrew

jis said:


> Andrew said:
> 
> 
> 
> f
> 
> 
> afigg said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andrew said:
> 
> 
> 
> Can they use the $5.5 billion that was going to be given out from the RRIF Loan to the Gateway Project?
> 
> 
> 
> No. The FRA RRIF loan program is authorized to distribute $35 billion in US Treasury note backed loans that are intended to be paid back. The Gateway project is an entirely different deal from Desert Xpress.
> As for Desert Xpress RRIF application being 'suspended', I don't see how they can proceed without government backed loans. Will be very difficult to get all private sector financing for an infrastructure project of this size.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> But if that is the case, HOW can Amtrak's urgently needed Gateway Project get funded? (I understand that the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey would contribute, and maybe some money from New York City and NJ Turnpike Toll Authority--but what else)?!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I hope that NJ will not break its own law again to try to dole out NJ Turnpike toll money for non NJ Turnpike work.
> My guess is that the whole funding model for NEC will undergo a sea change before anything happens regarding Gateway or any of the other mega-projects, and it will bring in additional bond supported money with some interesting financial twists allowing additional private investments leveraged by the bond backed money, into the mix.
> 
> I don't think NJ will contribute any Turnpike money after having been burned once. They are actually not allowed to, but they thought they'd do so anyway by structuring it as a loan that is apparently never paid back - a brain child of the financial whiz Corzine, who is now probably going to finally land up in jail on another matter.  PANYNJ should contribute some significant money amounting to something like $3 to $5 billion perhaps over the lifetime of the project (my guess). But currently they are preoccupied with finishing the World Trade Center affair and raising the Bayonne Bridge.
> 
> For now, as far as Gateway goes, Amtrak and NJT will somehow scrounge together the needed $20 to $25 million per year to continue final design work and keep the core staff together, until the dust settles on how the big funding will be handled. I also doubt that NY City will be a large contributor. It will have its hands full well into the '20s recovering from ESA and SAS. OTOH, NY State might find some money, but hard to see from where.
Click to expand...

I expect the Port Authority to contribute somewhere around $4 billion. In addition, a few years from now, I am sure that more money will be available from the Port Authority due to an improved economy and much of the WTC work getting completed--or nearly completed...

How long will the design work take?


----------



## jis

Andrew said:


> How long will the design work take?


Depends on how adequately it is funded. Currently the chances of it being funded adequately before 2016 appears to be slim.


----------



## Andrew

Is that because 2016 is an election year? Also, I understand that a $15 million preliminary engineering grant was signed by President Obama for the Gateway Project in November, 2011. Thus, when is it likely for the entire engineering for Gateway (including environmental impact statements) become completed?


----------



## AlanB

jis said:


> OTOH, NY State might find some money, but hard to see from where.


NY State could find the money; that's not the issue. What's hard to see is if the politicians will make the effort to find it.


----------



## afigg

If I may get this topic back to Xpress West, there is more information on why the DOT suspended processing of the RRIF application. A major hitch was that Xpress West failed to satisfy the Buy America component of the RRIF loan requirements. Xpress West wanted waivers that the FRA was not willing to sign off on. Given the high political profile of the loan, understandable that the FRA and USDOT would be reluctant to open their agencies to attacks because they waived Buy America rules for a $5 billion loan.So they tried to push XW to team with CHSRA and presumably Amtrak on equipment purchases which XW is clearly resistant to doing.

Las Vegas Review Journal Feds: XPressWest failed to meet 'Buy America' rules for high-speed train.



> WASHINGTON — A Las Vegas firm’s application for a $5.5 billion federal loan to buiid a high-speed railroad to Southern California was shelved in part because it failed to meet “Buy America” rules.
> XPressWest executives went back and forth with officials from the Department of Transportation to salvage the loan bid, proposing to rework its contracting and corporate structure in response to a range of concerns raised by evaluators.
> 
> But then-Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said the company’s most recent proposal, on May 20, was not accompanied by documentation that further could be evaluated, and he decided to halt the loan review after 2½ years.
> 
> “After several years of engagement with no resolution to the threshold issues addressed in this letter and the significant uncertainties still surrounding this project, we have decided to suspend further consideration of XPressWest’s loan request,” LaHood said in a letter sent June 28 to XPressWest Chairman Tony Marnell.


the California HSR Blog has a link to a (redacted) copy of the LaHood letter to XW and a discussion of the situation (with their usual anti-HSR posters popping in): XpressWest Struggled to Meet Federal Buy America Rules

So where does Xpress West go from here?


----------



## jis

I still don't believe Victorville to Vegas is the right place to tie up a significant part of the available RRIF funds at this time, and hence I have continued to oppose this loan. OTOH in general I do support the construction of HSR corridors where it makes sense. This one just doesn't make any sense at least to me. This in my view is the continuing saga of the mismanagement of everything to do with HSR by the current administration - a very unfortunate happenstance since it is not often that one gets an administration sympathetic to passenger rail.


----------



## GG-1

jis said:


> I still don't believe Victorville to Vegas is the right place to tie up a significant part of the available RRIF funds at this time, and hence I have continued to oppose this loan. OTOH in general I do support the construction of HSR corridors where it makes sense. This one just doesn't make any sense at least to me. This in my view is the continuing saga of the mismanagement of everything to do with HSR by the current administration - a very unfortunate happenstance since it is not often that one gets an administration sympathetic to passenger rail.


Aloha

What you may not being considered is where to connect to the California HS Rail. No mater where the California system route ends up a route from Vegas to Victorvile makes sense. I agree as a final endpoint Victorville is a dud. For whatever reasons they seem to not want to be connected to CHSR publicly.


----------



## Andrew

Andrew said:


> Is that because 2016 is an election year? Also, I understand that a $15 million preliminary engineering grant was signed by President Obama for the Gateway Project in November, 2011. Thus, when is it likely for the entire engineering for Gateway (including environmental impact statements) become completed?





AlanB said:


> jis said:
> 
> 
> 
> OTOH, NY State might find some money, but hard to see from where.
> 
> 
> 
> NY State could find the money; that's not the issue. What's hard to see is if the politicians will make the effort to find it.
Click to expand...

1. Are you saying that NY State would fund the entire $15 billion or a part of the Gateway Project?

2. What will need to be done to revive the Xpress West Project?


----------



## AlanB

Andrew said:


> AlanB said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jis said:
> 
> 
> 
> OTOH, NY State might find some money, but hard to see from where.
> 
> 
> 
> NY State could find the money; that's not the issue. What's hard to see is if the politicians will make the effort to find it.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 1. Are you saying that NY State would fund the entire $15 billion or a part of the Gateway Project?
Click to expand...

No, I'm not saying that. 

I'm saying that NY could find a share of the money.


----------



## afigg

Came across this news update on Xpress West in Progressive Railroading: Federal financing rejection won't halt high-speed rail project, XpressWest says. I have not yet checked the Vegas newspapers for more info on how XW is publicly dealing with the "suspension" of the RRIF application by US DOT. I wonder, from the statement by XW, if XW has already reached on tentative agreement with a vendor group to purchase off the shelf HSR trains and signal & power systems as part of an investment package that won't fit in with Amtrak and CHSRA trainset plans (which have to meet the Buy America requirement). So the RRIF loan funding approach could not be made to work.

Excerpt:



> However, in a July 17 statement posted on the XpressWest website, company officials said they will continue with their project's plans regardless of the USDOT's decision.
> "XpressWest has always, and will continue to work with an international high-speed group from North America, Asia and Europe," according to the statement. "The United States' high-speed rail market is in its infancy and the international high-speed rail community is ready, willing and able to get XpressWest on-line now and launch a new industry in America."
> 
> The company has proposed constructing and operating a new, double-tracked high-speed rail route running 185 miles between southern California and Las Vegas. The project would be built within or adjacent to Interstate 15


----------



## Anderson

Hmm...I can't help but wonder if JR Central might not somehow have their finger in the pie here. Call it an odd hunch that could well be wrong, but they're the only folks with the resources to push something like that which are in this business and who're badly constrained on what they can do "at home".


----------



## VentureForth

I would think JR East has a lot more resources than JR Central...


----------



## jis

Yup, as long as Xpress West is able to mobilize private capital to fund most of the project, I am all for it.

And yes, JR East is definitely the richer of those two.


----------



## Andrew

How long until Xpress West gets the green light for the massive RRIF Loan?


----------



## afigg

Andrew said:


> How long until Xpress West gets the green light for the massive RRIF Loan?


I suggest you read a few posts back in this thread. The US DOT suspended review of Xpress West's RRIF application, which means no RRIF loan.


----------



## wsc

The canceling of the Federal Loan to X-West is actually great news for HSR in the US. Here's why.

1) Finnacing of this project has been questionable and shaky at best. HSR's public image is already having to deal with all the negative press from CalHSRs trains to nowhere and billions spent without turning a single shovel.

2) If it did start construction, chances are very high it would run out of money and the project would stall. This would leave a wonderful photo op for are the naysayers in the median of I-15 to use forever as an arguement against future HSR.

3) If by a some miracle it did get completed and trains actually started running, almost no one with any real knowledge of the project (meaning those who know where Victorville actually is) believes that X-West will ever make any money or stand a chance of paying back the loan except for those working for X-West. No one honestly believes people are going to drive through hours of LA traffic and 100 miles out into the desert just to catch a train at a station that is already almost half way to Las Vegas. I suspect even the folks at X-West know this, which leads to my next point.

4) X-West could do damage to HSR equivalent to that done to Nuclear Power by the Three Mile Island accident. Namely, killing HSR forever. I believe that even the folks at X-West know their project is doomed to failure, however the plan now is to build it anyway and then either ask for a bailout or continuous subsidy. Or they intend to complete it, run it at a loss for a year or two and then threaten to shut it down and convince CA, NV or the federal government to purchase it and operate it as a government funded transit agency which they (X-West) would then ask for an operating concession. We would then have X-West pocketing the $5 billion federal loan, selling the route to the government (probaly another $5 billion or so), and then getting a multi-year operating concession (worth several hundred million a year) to operate a railroad that everyone knew was going to lose money from the start. Tell me I am wrong, but I think we all know how this kind of thing often works.

So again, the best thing for HSR is for bad projects to die before too many tax dollars are wasted. HSR cannot afford for the first new HSR project in this country to be a financial failure. Subsidy will be okay if the project has record ridership and efficient fiscally responsible operations. This combination will allow HSR to expand with bi-partisan support. That is why continued support for CalHSR and projects like X-West are so damming to the cause. Money should be spent on real projects and real improvements and not 20 year political sagas and pipedreams.

We take all the CalHSR money and put it into rebuilding the NEC, we could have a REAL 160+ mph corridor that actually serves large city centers across an entire region. We already know it would be a huge success since it already is a success now! And we could staret seeing the payoff immediately, not in 2025 or whenever CalHSR now says will be the first SF to LA train. OR, if we really think we need it to be a new project, then pick an existing corridor with proven ridership that is short enough to be up and running in 5 years or less and not based on political payoffs. Despite how much HSR folks hate Wisconsin, the reality is the Chicago to Milwaukee corridor (not Madison, Detroit or St. Louis) has been proven in study after study as the best choice for the first true HSR project. That's why both DB and SNCF are interested and willing to pay for much of it. But until we get people at the Federal DOT who base HSR on its viablity and not political payoffs or retaliation, the best we should hope for is nothing because in this case trying and failing truly would be worse than not trying at all.


----------



## jphjaxfl

wsc said:


> The canceling of the Federal Loan to X-West is actually great news for HSR in the US. Here's why.
> 1) Finnacing of this project has been questionable and shaky at best. HSR's public image is already having to deal with all the negative press from CalHSRs trains to nowhere and billions spent without turning a single shovel.
> 
> 2) If it did start construction, chances are very high it would run out of money and the project would stall. This would leave a wonderful photo op for are the naysayers in the median of I-15 to use forever as an arguement against future HSR.
> 
> 3) If by a some miracle it did get completed and trains actually started running, almost no one with any real knowledge of the project (meaning those who know where Victorville actually is) believes that X-West will ever make any money or stand a chance of paying back the loan except for those working for X-West. No one honestly believes people are going to drive through hours of LA traffic and 100 miles out into the desert just to catch a train at a station that is already almost half way to Las Vegas. I suspect even the folks at X-West know this, which leads to my next point.
> 
> 4) X-West could do damage to HSR equivalent to that done to Nuclear Power by the Three Mile Island accident. Namely, killing HSR forever. I believe that even the folks at X-West know their project is doomed to failure, however the plan now is to build it anyway and then either ask for a bailout or continuous subsidy. Or they intend to complete it, run it at a loss for a year or two and then threaten to shut it down and convince CA, NV or the federal government to purchase it and operate it as a government funded transit agency which they (X-West) would then ask for an operating concession. We would then have X-West pocketing the $5 billion federal loan, selling the route to the government (probaly another $5 billion or so), and then getting a multi-year operating concession (worth several hundred million a year) to operate a railroad that everyone knew was going to lose money from the start. Tell me I am wrong, but I think we all know how this kind of thing often works.
> 
> So again, the best thing for HSR is for bad projects to die before too many tax dollars are wasted. HSR cannot afford for the first new HSR project in this country to be a financial failure. Subsidy will be okay if the project has record ridership and efficient fiscally responsible operations. This combination will allow HSR to expand with bi-partisan support. That is why continued support for CalHSR and projects like X-West are so damming to the cause. Money should be spent on real projects and real improvements and not 20 year political sagas and pipedreams.
> 
> We take all the CalHSR money and put it into rebuilding the NEC, we could have a REAL 160+ mph corridor that actually serves large city centers across an entire region. We already know it would be a huge success since it already is a success now! And we could staret seeing the payoff immediately, not in 2025 or whenever CalHSR now says will be the first SF to LA train. OR, if we really think we need it to be a new project, then pick an existing corridor with proven ridership that is short enough to be up and running in 5 years or less and not based on political payoffs. Despite how much HSR folks hate Wisconsin, the reality is the Chicago to Milwaukee corridor (not Madison, Detroit or St. Louis) has been proven in study after study as the best choice for the first true HSR project. That's why both DB and SNCF are interested and willing to pay for much of it. But until we get people at the Federal DOT who base HSR on its viablity and not political payoffs or retaliation, the best we should hope for is nothing because in this case trying and failing truly would be worse than not trying at all.


The US is already way behind most of the developed nations on High Speed Rail. Every other system has been built with Government support. CAHSR is the best plan I have seen in the US. Yes, it will take money because it will be a completely new right-of-way, probably the first built in the US in well over 100 years. CAHSR will be successful and it will result in similar systems being built elsewhere. There is a trend in US for new concepts to start in CA and spread over the US. I am looking forward to the new train from LA to SF in 2025 or whenever it starts.


----------



## VentureForth

wsc said:


> We take all the CalHSR money and put it into rebuilding the NEC, we could have a REAL 160+ mph corridor that actually serves large city centers across an entire region.


I don't think you're going to get 160 MPH service in the NEC just by rebuilding it. Much of the problem today lies in the fact that a) there is just too much traffic, b) there are too many slow curves. To really get 160 MPH, you MUST have a dedicated ROW - like the Shinkansen in Japan. Separate true HSR from local commuter services. And even in the NEC, this will require a new ROW, obtained by expensive imminent domain claims & battles. No way to do it cheaper than in California.


----------



## jis

Are we talking of 160mph max speed on certain segments, or 160mph average?

160mph on certain segments one can certainly get with some rebuild, even on as much as about a quarter to a third of NEC South depending on how much money one wants to spend.

OTOH 160mph average? For that one will need an new ROW and my fearless prediction is that will not happen in the next 30 years.

And by the way, it is "eminent domain" not "imminent domain".

At the end of the day what matters more is trip time than max speed. And the incremental cost of reducing trip time from current to say 2 hours (113mph avg) on NEC south is hugely less than to try to get to 1.5 hours (~150mph avg), and IMHO 2 hrs is way more than adequate for most purposes, and should not require max speeds much higher than 160, which is eminently doable in a lot of the current ROW per the Deputy Chief Engineer of the NEC HSR Project as stated by him at the last TransAction conference.

NEC North is a much harder nut to crack, but bringing ti to something like 2:45 may be feasible in the current ROW with a little bit of cooperation from the State of Connecticut. But beyond that will require a quantum jump in cost.


----------



## VentureForth

jis said:


> And by the way, it is "eminent domain" not "imminent domain".


English sux.


----------



## Anderson

jis said:


> Are we talking of 160mph max speed on certain segments, or 160mph average?
> 160mph on certain segments one can certainly get with some rebuild, even on as much as about a quarter to a third of NEC South depending on how much money one wants to spend.
> 
> OTOH 160mph average? For that one will need an new ROW and my fearless prediction is that will not happen in the next 30 years.
> 
> And by the way, it is "eminent domain" not "imminent domain".
> 
> At the end of the day what matters more is trip time than max speed. And the incremental cost of reducing trip time from current to say 2 hours (113mph avg) on NEC south is hugely less than to try to get to 1.5 hours (~150mph avg), and IMHO 2 hrs is way more than adequate for most purposes, and should not require max speeds much higher than 160, which is eminently doable in a lot of the current ROW per the Deputy Chief Engineer of the NEC HSR Project as stated by him at the last TransAction conference.
> 
> NEC North is a much harder nut to crack, but bringing ti to something like 2:45 may be feasible in the current ROW with a little bit of cooperation from the State of Connecticut. But beyond that will require a quantum jump in cost.


I agree that trip time/average speed is the important metric. Top speed is a nice peacock display, but it's not much more...it's good for mating money with proposals, but it doesn't do anything else practical in most cases.

The 90 minute push is because they want to get BOS-WAS to three hours. In all likelihood, four hours for that would probably do a number on the endpoint air markets (think the 40-50% share Amtrak has BOS-NYP) and more or less wipe out everything short of that. Even getting under five hours (i.e. 2:00 WAS-NYP, 2:45 NYP-BOS, and up to 15 minutes for a crew change and passenger turnover at NYP) would probably get just about everything except the endpoint in Amtrak's hands and do some substantial damage there.


----------



## afigg

jis said:


> Are we talking of 160mph max speed on certain segments, or 160mph average?
> 160mph on certain segments one can certainly get with some rebuild, even on as much as about a quarter to a third of NEC South depending on how much money one wants to spend.
> 
> OTOH 160mph average? For that one will need an new ROW and my fearless prediction is that will not happen in the next 30 years.


The Feasibility Study report for the Aberdeen MD station discusses in detail the plans for 160 mph center tracks for a shifted 4 track line through the station. From the NEC infrastructure plans, it is clear that Amtrak is seeking to build a number of 160 mph segments on the current NEC between NYP and WAS. I agree that a 2 hour NYP to WAS trip time will be a worthy improvement if they can pull it off. Given the huge costs of a series of 220 mph new ROW segments along the NEC corridor, except perhaps on some subset of the NYP-BOS section, I do not expect to live long enough to see it happen.
I don't understand this notion that we should put all our higher speed rail resources into the NEC. We can afford to build a LA to SF true 220 mph HSR line while also making serious improvements for 160 mph running to the NEC. And other HSR corridors as well. People should keep some perspective on the price tags for HSR corridors. The estimated cost for replacing the Tappan Zee bridge in NY is currently around $5 billion and that after stripping out transitway options to cut the cost. So one Tappan Zee bridge replacement is not that much less than the cost of building a Victorville to Vegas HSR corridor.


----------



## leemell

California has 30M people and two very large population centers and and several large centers. Way more than necessary to support HRS. In about twenty years it will probably be about 50M.


----------



## Anderson

To be honest, Obama could have jammed a working piece of the CAHSR plan through with a mix of the two rounds of HSR funding and a massive block from RRIF to round up $20bn or so in federal money. That plus a state commitment would likely at least get you something workable from the LA area to the Bay Area (even if it ended up being a 125 MPH run until electrification could be carried out/extended all the way from end to end), and that money being present and committed aggressively could have made the plan a fait accompli to a very great degree.

As to the NEC, I could see a few stretches of trans-160 MPH showing up south of NYP, but they'd likely be dedicated tracks between WIL and WAS, nothing more.

Granted, some of it is a bias of where I'm from, but I'd like to see efforts made to make SEHSR (and/or variants thereof) happen sooner. I think the NEC has the potential to be a core for a larger HSR network on the East Coast and I'd like to see that come to pass.


----------



## Bus Nut

Anderson said:


> The 90 minute push is because they want to get BOS-WAS to three hours. In all likelihood, four hours for that would probably do a number on the endpoint air markets (think the 40-50% share Amtrak has BOS-NYP) and more or less wipe out everything short of that. Even getting under five hours (i.e. 2:00 WAS-NYP, 2:45 NYP-BOS, and up to 15 minutes for a crew change and passenger turnover at NYP) would probably get just about everything except the endpoint in Amtrak's hands and do some substantial damage there.


Don't think of it as damage. Think of it as market rationalization. :giggle:


----------



## Bus Nut

afigg said:


> I don't understand this notion that we should put all our higher speed rail resources into the NEC. We can afford to build a LA to SF true 220 mph HSR line while also making serious improvements for 160 mph running to the NEC. And other HSR corridors as well. People should keep some perspective on the price tags for HSR corridors. The estimated cost for replacing the Tappan Zee bridge in NY is currently around $5 billion and that after stripping out transitway options to cut the cost. So one Tappan Zee bridge replacement is not that much less than the cost of building a Victorville to Vegas HSR corridor.


Imagine if highway widening projects had to go through an alternatives analysis vs. high quality rail transit, as they require with transit service expansions. (Strangely, when they do rail vs bus they never figure in quality of life for residents exposed to the asthma risk... oh, we're not supposed to talk about environmental justice? NM.) The screaming from the highway/car dead-enders lobby would be deafening.


----------



## Anderson

Bus Nut said:


> afigg said:
> 
> 
> 
> I don't understand this notion that we should put all our higher speed rail resources into the NEC. We can afford to build a LA to SF true 220 mph HSR line while also making serious improvements for 160 mph running to the NEC. And other HSR corridors as well. People should keep some perspective on the price tags for HSR corridors. The estimated cost for replacing the Tappan Zee bridge in NY is currently around $5 billion and that after stripping out transitway options to cut the cost. So one Tappan Zee bridge replacement is not that much less than the cost of building a Victorville to Vegas HSR corridor.
> 
> 
> 
> Imagine if highway widening projects had to go through an alternatives analysis vs. high quality rail transit, as they require with transit service expansions. (Strangely, when they do rail vs bus they never figure in quality of life for residents exposed to the asthma risk... oh, we're not supposed to talk about environmental justice? NM.) The screaming from the highway/car dead-enders lobby would be deafening.
Click to expand...

I am reminded of the commentary from someone from, I believe, CT that if the EIS process had been in place in 1950, we'd never have gotten I-95 from New York to Boston.


----------



## Eric S

Anderson said:


> I am reminded of the commentary from someone from, I believe, CT that if the EIS process had been in place in 1950, we'd never have gotten I-95 from New York to Boston.


A portion of which, IINM, was constructed on land originally purchased by the New Haven RR to relocated/straighten the Shore Line.


----------



## DET63

Aaron said:


> Apparently the RRIF loan for Xpress West is dead. Someone posted this to new thread, but a mod closed it, saying it's being discussed here. Well, it hasn't actually been discussed here, so I'm just copying and pasting their post into this thread.
> 
> 
> 
> WASHINGTON — The government has halted its review of a multibillion-dollar loan request for high-speed rail line connecting Las Vegas and Southern California, a potentially staggering hit to the ambitious project.
> The development is a blow for XPressWest, which has envisioned itself having a major role in the region’s future. The company’s plans call for electric trains whisking passengers at speeds up to 150 mph between Las Vegas and, for starters, Victorville, Calif.
> 
> 
> 
> More
Click to expand...

That someone was me. Thanks for clarifying the fact that the thread I started (or tried to) was about a topic that was peripheral to what has been discussed here, but was yet to be directly addressed.


----------



## leemell

That was the middle of last month and has been discussed here already. The current conversation is peripheral to that.


----------



## George Harris

Anderson said:


> I am reminded of the commentary from someone from, I believe, CT that if the EIS process had been in place in 1950, we'd never have gotten I-95 from New York to Boston.


And if it had been in place in 1800 there would have been no steam locomotive and we would all be riding horses and mules, or for the most of us walking and spending a lot of our days watching the back end of a mule or water buffalo depending upon what part of the world we lived end, and oh yeah, with the generally poor communication technological progress otherwise would be greatly slowed and we would enjoy disease filled lives with average life expectancies of around 30, which most people fail to understand meant that quite a few people did make it to 60 plus, but during that time would bury between 1/3 and 1/2 half of their children within their first 10 years of life. There is definitely a place for an EIS, but let's have some rationality and balance with this stuff.


----------



## Andrew

Does the RRIF Program still exist? (I have not heard about it being allocated for any other projects recently).


----------



## afigg

Andrew said:


> Does the RRIF Program still exist? (I have not heard about it being allocated for any other projects recently).


Yes, the FRA RRIF loan program still exists. The first response to a Google search of "RRIF loan" is this FRA webpage: http://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0128

It is a loan program at current US Treasury note rates, so the loans have to be paid back with interest and fees. So not that many have applied for the RRIF loans over the years.


----------



## Andrew

I read over that same link--but it says nothing about loans be authorized for 2013; thus, that's why I was wondering if the RRIF Program still exists. Can the $5.5 billion that was going to be used for the Xpress West Project instead go to Amtrak's Gateway Project?


----------



## jis

RRIF has a pool of money to loan. There was nothing going to anyone until the loan is approved. Amtrak or NJT or NY or NJ State DOT could get RRIF Loans for specific parts of Gateway which have independent utility. I do not think there will be one giant single funding package for all of Gateway in one fell swoop. Such has not been the case for ESA, nor for SAS, or for the myriads of station upgrade and rebuilding projects either, which each individually are miniscule financial commitments compared to some thing like Gateway.

Actually the lead agency for all of the Gateway related projects is not Amtrak. For example currently the lead agency for Portal Replacement is NJT, mainly so that work can proceed to the extent possible without going through the rigmarole of transferring intellectual property of the design work thatw as already carried out as part of the ARC related project. There is not specific designated owner of the Portal South bridge which goes with the two additional tracks between new Hudson Tubes and Newark yet, but will probably be NJT again for reasons stated above. A lead agency will most likely get designated only after they have figured out who is responsible for providing funding for what from what source, and who is capable of bringing what resources to the table for which part. As I have said in earlier message one just has to wait to let the NEC Commission and associated processes to reach a stage where the states can come up with a way to divvy up the cost.


----------



## Andrew

Maybe New Starts can fund the Bergen Loop and Expanded Secaucus Station, while RRIF can fund major part of the Gateway Project, AND NYC/MTA can fund Penn South Expansion?


----------



## Anderson

Andrew said:


> Maybe New Starts can fund the Bergen Loop and Expanded Secaucus Station, while RRIF can fund major part of the Gateway Project, AND NYC/MTA can fund Penn South Expansion?


The problem is that RRIF has to be paid back. The others don't.


----------



## Andrew

Anderson said:


> Andrew said:
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe New Starts can fund the Bergen Loop and Expanded Secaucus Station, while RRIF can fund major part of the Gateway Project, AND NYC/MTA can fund Penn South Expansion?
> 
> 
> 
> The problem is that RRIF has to be paid back. The others don't.
Click to expand...

But RRIF can be paid back from Amtrak's annual ticket revenue, just as they are doing with the new electric locomotives...


----------



## jis

Why is it fair to cover the entire cost of the tunnel from Amtrak ticket revenues when the main beneficiary of it is not Amtrak? Doesn't make an iota of sense to me. Why would MTA/NYC pay for Penn South when MTA does not get any direct benefit out of it? NY State should contribute some as should NJ, as will PANYNJ, and then there will be half a dozen categories of federally sourced funds probably running the whole gamut from New Start, TIGER, CMAQ, FTA General Grants, Recovery Projects from the next two financial meltdowns, FRA targeted appropriation, who knows? All that will depend a lot on how the political winds blow when it comes to actually find the appropriation.

I don't understand why we are agonizing over funding at present. Seems like we ought to have better things to obsess over at this time.  Nothing that we speculate about funding source here will have any impact on what actually happens.


----------



## afigg

Andrew said:


> But RRIF can be paid back from Amtrak's annual ticket revenue, just as they are doing with the new electric locomotives...


But to pick a number, $5 billion in debt load will take a lot of ticket revenue to pay for. As jis states, Gateway will benefit multiple users of the station: Amtrak, the NEC states, NJT, indirectly LIRR & MNRR, MTA and will get funding carefully assembled in many parts from multiple sources over many years. All of which have nothing to do with Xpress West, the topic of discussion in this thread.


----------



## Anderson

On the one hand, if Amtrak also gets significant use fees from NJT (or anyone else), that could provide an offset. On the other hand, I'm not sure if this is the best commitment for future ticket revenue. If Amtrak takes a $3bn RIFF loan for the tunnels 3% interest for 30 years (all very favorable assumptions), you're looking at somewhere around $90m/yr in interest to say nothing of principal. I'd rather see that money put towards Acela IIs and other aspects of overhauling and/or expanding Amtrak's fleet.


----------



## VentureForth

jis said:


> Why is it fair to cover the entire cost of the tunnel from Amtrak ticket revenues when the main beneficiary of it is not Amtrak?


Because everyone KNOWS that Amtrak will pay for way more than their fair share.


----------



## Andrew

jis said:


> Why is it fair to cover the entire cost of the tunnel from Amtrak ticket revenues when the main beneficiary of it is not Amtrak? Doesn't make an iota of sense to me. Why would MTA/NYC pay for Penn South when MTA does not get any direct benefit out of it? NY State should contribute some as should NJ, as will PANYNJ, and then there will be half a dozen categories of federally sourced funds probably running the whole gamut from New Start, TIGER, CMAQ, FTA General Grants, Recovery Projects from the next two financial meltdowns, FRA targeted appropriation, who knows? All that will depend a lot on how the political winds blow when it comes to actually find the appropriation.
> I don't understand why we are agonizing over funding at present. Seems like we ought to have better things to obsess over at this time.  Nothing that we speculate about funding source here will have any impact on what actually happens.





VentureForth said:


> jis said:
> 
> 
> 
> Why is it fair to cover the entire cost of the tunnel from Amtrak ticket revenues when the main beneficiary of it is not Amtrak?
> 
> 
> 
> Because everyone KNOWS that Amtrak will pay for way more than their fair share.
Click to expand...


1. Xpress West was supposed to receive a $5.5 billion loan...

2. Perhaps the Gateway Project can receive money from several pots after all. I recently read that the Bloomberg Administration has figured out that $1.3 billion from selling air rights near Penn Station in Manhattan. So, imagine this money plus $700 million from the MTA and another $1 billion from Albany. That's $3 billion right there, with another $2.1 billion coming from New Starts (at $300 million per year over 7 years,), $500 million from TIGER for new Portal South Bridge, $1.4 billion RRIF loan, $3 billion from FTA Grants over a seven year period, $3.5 billion from Port Authority of NY and NJ, and $1.5 billion from NJ Budget/Bonds...

Does anyone know if Amtrak (or anyone else) has begun the process of figuring out potential cash flows, etc? Also, what will Amtrak need to do to convince Christie Administration to support financial resources for the Gateway Project?


----------



## me_little_me

Andrew said:


> Perhaps the Gateway Project can receive money from several pots after all. I recently read that the Bloomberg Administration has figured out that $1.3 billion from selling air rights near Penn Station in Manhattan. So, imagine this money plus $700 million from the MTA and another $1 billion from Albany. That's $3 billion right there, with another $2.1 billion coming from New Starts (at $300 million per year over 7 years,), $500 million from TIGER for new Portal South Bridge, $1.4 billion RRIF loan, $3 billion from FTA Grants over a seven year period, $3.5 billion from Port Authority of NY and NJ, and $1.5 billion from NJ Budget/Bonds...


A billion here. A billion there. Soon you'll be talking about real money.

In the Air Force 40 years ago, we used to talk about megadollars that way and would make the same comment. Sounds so much smaller than $5,000,000 (or $5,000,000,000 now).


----------



## justin

Why can't the feds just give the go ahead, so they can start building this thing. It will mean jobs, and that what is las vegas needs badly. If this president really wants to produce jobs, then this is the way to go.


----------



## Anderson

justin said:


> Why can't the feds just give the go ahead, so they can start building this thing. It will mean jobs, and that what is las vegas needs badly. If this president really wants to produce jobs, then this is the way to go.


It's not just federal "approval" for the project...there's a massive loan at stake as well, and a lot of legal strings attached to what the loan can/can't be spent on that are at issue.


----------



## CHamilton

Las Vegas rail service plans have seen starts, stops

An outline of both the XpressWest and X Train projects.


----------



## rrdude

If it happens in my lifetime, "Drinks are on me"


----------



## jis

Anderson said:


> justin said:
> 
> 
> 
> Why can't the feds just give the go ahead, so they can start building this thing. It will mean jobs, and that what is las vegas needs badly. If this president really wants to produce jobs, then this is the way to go.
> 
> 
> 
> It's not just federal "approval" for the project...there's a massive loan at stake as well, and a lot of legal strings attached to what the loan can/can't be spent on that are at issue.
Click to expand...

It is also not clear that this would be the best use of such a massive loan and there is significant doubt about whether it will ever be paid back, since the financial profile of the project is not exactly the soundest, and the risk that the proposer are willing to take in terms of assets brought to the table appear to be rather meager.

Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


----------



## Green Maned Lion

I dunno. I feel like losing a lot of money.


----------



## GG-1

rrdude said:


> If it happens in my lifetime, "Drinks are on me"


Aloha

You are young enough, if I remember correctly, that you may have to pay off on that.

I felt that article was well written.

Mahalo


----------



## The Davy Crockett

The article might be well written, but the comments to the article show that a lot of folks need to get a grip and face the fact that roads DO NOT pay for themselves. Plenty of the fools pay lip service to "economics" without having a clue as to what they are blabbing about. Spewing 'ostrich economics' might feel good, but it doesn't give one much perspective on reality...


----------



## The Davy Crockett

rrdude said:


> If it happens in my lifetime, "Drinks are on me"


Dude, the 'ice bucket challenge' is already SO passe`! :lol:


----------



## George Harris

When we keep hearing this "roads don't pay for themselves" statement, we must recognize that while this is absolutely true, the reality is that no one expects them to, so it does nothing for the issue.


----------



## Ryan

Sure it does. It highlights the absurdity of expecting passenger rail to pay for itself and helps people get rid of the misguided notion that it should.


----------



## leemell

Well. there may be some movement with the Xpresswest/Desertxpress. It seems that A. Mack the CEO (?) of the XP/DE will be briefing the CA HSR Authority Board at their next meeting.


----------



## CHamilton

Will California’s First High Speed Train go to Las Vegas?


> It is looking more and more that California’s first High Speed Train will go to Las Vegas. Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, a major supporter of California- Las Vegas High Speed Rail service, says he has been talking with Governor Brown about the future of California-Las Vegas High Speed Rail. Senator Reid has said that an announcement about a new financial plan for the project will be made soon that will get Las Vegas High Speed Rail back on track.


----------



## XHRTSP

Are we talking about Xpress here are a DOT operation? And if the latter, what's the obstacle to at least using some of the new bi levels to put together a conventional train over the Desert Wind route while they build the HSR?


----------



## rrdude

XHRTSP said:


> Are we talking about Xpress here are a DOT operation? And if the latter, *what's the obstacle *to at least using some of the new bi levels to put together a conventional train over the Desert Wind route while they build the HSR?


Who gonna pay for dat?


----------



## Andrew

If you folks had to honestly predict do you think that:

Xpress West will begin construction in the next few years

OR

Xpress West will never get built?


----------



## rrdude

Andrew said:


> If you folks had to honestly predict do you think that:
> 
> Xpress West will begin construction in the next few years
> 
> OR
> 
> Xpress West will never get built?


the latter............


----------



## XHRTSP

rrdude said:


> Who gonna pay for dat?


Harry Reid, dat's who dat.
Assuming he has the political capitol to get HSR funded, what's stopping him from a cheaper and, in my opinion at least, adequate conventional line in the intern? Or is this simply going to be a go big or go home situation?


----------



## George Harris

Go big and do it on someone else's money. That is the mantra of Las Vegas. Everything about it is built on money scammed out of someone else. What else do you call encouraging gambling? It is making people think that if they go to Vegas and gamble they will come away with more money than they took, when if they had an IQ above that of a cabbage they would realize that all the glitz in Vegas was built with money people lost gambling.

Xpress West either ends in the middle of nowhere or ties into the Calif. HSR in the general location of Palmdale to get to Los Angeles. Look at the map. Palmdale to LA is mega mountainous so the railroad will be very expensive to build, so to get to LA Xpress West has to use a hefty chunk of line built with the CAHSR money.


----------



## leemell

Or Passengers transfer to CAHSR at Palmdale


----------



## bretton88

Green Maned Lion said:


> I dunno. I feel like losing a lot of money.


Where's a like button for this? We always feel like losing money, right?


----------



## GG-1

Aloha

Well who knows, the Shadow knows. Last nights local news did a short story about a proposal for High Speed train to Burbank from Vegas. This one has support from several casino operators.

If I see more I will let you know and or start a new pipedream thread.


----------



## Tokkyu40

bretton88 said:


> Green Maned Lion said:
> 
> 
> 
> I dunno. I feel like losing a lot of money.
> 
> 
> 
> Where's a like button for this? We always feel like losing money, right?
Click to expand...

This is why we have Las Vegas.


----------



## john h

Lol there's a chance you wI'll come out ahead though


----------



## CHamilton

Victorville-to-Vegas rail not dead yet
XpressWest COO thinks viability grows with emphasis on regional connectivity



> VICTORVILLE — XpressWest Chief Operating Officer Andrew Mack said Thursday that the viability of the ambitious high-speed rail line from Victorville to Las Vegas will continue to grow as similar regional projects progress.
> 
> Formerly known as DesertXPress, the multibillion dollar project is being touted as able to transport riders from here to Sin City in about 80 minutes, with trains leaving every 20 minutes and tickets costing $75 to $100.
> In July 2013, the Las Vegas-based company's $5.5 billion government loan application was suspended indefinitely, stalling the project.
> But Mack told the Daily Press that he remained confident that the project could fill a major commuter need, a sentiment he said has been furthered by the progress of similar projects such as the High Desert Corridor — a proposed 63-mile long, east-west multi-modal transportation corridor between Highway 14 in Palmdale and Highway 18 in Apple Valley.
> The rail component of that project could ultimately connect with the XpressWest endeavor.


----------



## neroden

And I find that the Nevada legislature has set up its own High Speed Rail Authority. This seems intended to back XPressWest.

http://www.noiseporn.com/2015/07/new-high-speed-rail-will-run-southern-california-las-vegas/

https://www.leg.state.nv.us/Session/78th2015/Reports/history.cfm?BillName=SB457

It looks like this is going to happen. The Authority is authorized to use bond financing (secured by the project's future revenues or assets) and is authorized to accept gifts from governments (which enables the use of eminent domain for it). The California counties involved have already agreed to cooperate with the project. The EIS has already been approved. XPressWest will be the "franchisee" for the project, since.the law is set up to favor it.


----------



## Andrew

If you mess with Christie, you might get caught in a traffic jam…

Amtrak's revenue streams--and NEC Profits--are expected to grow as the economy keeps improving. Amtrak putting their NEC profits back into the Northeast Corridor can help pay off the debt service on these loans.


----------



## Anderson

Ok, I split the thread. Afigg, please feel free to repost your earlier bit here; I felt it was a good fit for either thread and was torn on where to place it.


----------



## Paulus

China signs deal to build XpressWest, construction to start next September


----------



## The Davy Crockett

Wow.

Welcome to the People's Republic of America.


----------



## afigg

Paulus said:


> China signs deal to build XpressWest, construction to start next September


Huge news if true. Having the Chinese build a Vegas to Victorville and presumably eventually Victorville to Palmdale has ramifications for CA HSR and any long term ideas of a direct LA Union Station to Vegas HSR service. The Chinese HSR signal system and train may be incompatible with the CA HSR system.

Another initial reaction is that the Chinese construction companies are about to get an education in big construction projects in a real democracy where building permits, approvals, work permits have to be obtained and compliance with US work rules has to be followed prior to and during construction. Going to take them longer than 3 years to build it. I also expect the start of construction will almost certainly be delayed as the financing will run into hurdles. Still, a big deal.


----------



## jis

China basically uses an indegenized version of ERTMS for train control and signaling, which they originally acquired from Siemens or Bombardier, I forget which one exactly. It should not be that hard to get a compatible version in place, since AFAICT CA HSR also plans to use some version of ERTMS.


----------



## cirdan

If it is true that the trains the Chinese supposedly developed themselves are in reality clones of Bombardier and Siemens products, those companies may have something to say about it, seeing IP is more enforcable in the United States than in China.


----------



## PerRock

Actually out of the 9 different high speed trains China uses, only 3 of them are developed & built in China. The other 6 are all made by foreign companies including: Siemens, Alstom, Bombardier, JR, etc. Two out of the 3 Chinese made trains are in turn variations on the Siemens Velaro, built under contract from Siemens, which only leaves one truly designed & built by China, and yes admittedly Kawasaki claims it is a stolen design from their Shinkansens.

peter


----------



## Fan Railer

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/china-u-s-reach-agreement-on-high-speed-rail-before-xi-visit


----------



## leemell

Not to mention that Desertxpress/Xpresswest COO met with the CHSRA board in January and signed an agreement a couple of months later.

Edit - they met with the Board in September and remarks indicate they continue to meet.


----------



## GG-1

Fan Railer said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/china-u-s-reach-agreement-on-high-speed-rail-before-xi-visit





leemell said:


> Not to mention that Desertxpress/Xpresswest CEO met with the CHSRA board in January and signed an agreement a couple of months later.


Aloha

Very interesting, news, about 2 hours ago, had no reports on this. I will watch a different station in a hour to see if they include something about this.


----------



## leemell

I saw this info on the CHSRA website right after they occurred. These items don't show up in any of the Authority archives. Mack was on the agenda for the Jan. Board meet in to make a presentation.


----------



## afigg

jis said:


> China basically uses an indegenized version of ERTMS for train control and signaling, which they originally acquired from Siemens or Bombardier, I forget which one exactly. It should not be that hard to get a compatible version in place, since AFAICT CA HSR also plans to use some version of ERTMS.


The compatibility issues is not just signals, but power loads, clearance envelope, curve radii, maximum grade, and other stuff including a state bureaucracy that may be prone to keep a private operator off of the CA HSR tracks. But thinking on it, there are significant incentives for XW and the Chinese to make sure their trains can run over CA HSR tracks to both LA Union Station and to San Francisco. The incentive to the CHSRA is that a Palmdale to Vegas HSR line under construction provides a huge boost to get over the funding and political barriers for the route selection, EIS, approvals. and building the Bakersfield to Palmdale and Palmdale to LA segments. Those 2 segments are crucial to advancing the CA HSR project and those will be the most difficult and likely the most expensive segments to build, and the segments that could run into long delays from legal and political challenges.

The press release from XW and China Railway International spell out that their plan is a Victorville to Palmdale route to connect to the CA HSR system if there were lingering questions about that: China Railway International U.S.A. CO., LTD., And XpressWest To Develop Nevada - California Interstate High-Speed Passenger Rail System.



> China Railway International USA CO., LTD. and XpressWest have agreed to form a joint venture that will accelerate launch of the XpressWest rail project connecting Las Vegas, Nevada to Los Angeles, California (the "Southwest Rail Network"). The Project will develop, finance, build and operate the Southwest Rail Network, with stations in Las Vegas, Nevada, Victorville, California, and Palmdale, California, and service throughout Los Angeles. The decision to form a joint venture is the culmination of years of work and builds upon the significant accomplishments of XpressWest.
> 
> Supported by $100 million in initial capital, this new high-speed rail line (approximately 370 km(s) in length) will create new technology, manufacturing, and construction jobs throughout the interstate corridor and will connect Southern Nevada and Southern California to drive new economic development and grow tourism – a vital part of the region's economy. The Project will serve as a model of international cooperation and will firmly establish a United States-based high-speed rail industry that will result in significant job creation throughout the Southwest with construction planned to commence as early as September 2016. The Project will immediately undertake all necessary regulatory and commercial activities to advance the reality of regional high-speed rail in the United States. Implementation will begin within the next 100 days.


The next few years are looking better for HSR and expansion of intercity passenger rail in the US, despite the opposition from the House Republicans. The next 5+ years may see 3 privately funded passenger rail corridors either running or in advanced construction: All Aboard Florida, XW & Chinese Railways to Vegas, Dallas to Houston HSR, and 1 publicly funded HSR corridor, LA to SF.


----------



## The Davy Crockett

I agree that things are looking good for there to be at least one HSR system and one private intercity system to become realities in the not too distant future in the US.

Hopefully this will spur more investment into HSR and intercity train service, and who knows, maybe even the House will see the headlight.

Where the people lead, the leaders might possibly, eventually follow?


----------



## jis

Regarding compatibility issues, yeah we can all exude knowledgeability about it, but the fact of the matter is there is no rational reason for eXpress West to not consult with CAHSR and make sure they build more or less compatible systems. As for signalling and control systems, which was the original question raised, trains operating with multiple such systems are not unheard of, though with a little care such should be unnecessary. OTOH, if the equipment is expected to also operate on vanilla US freight PTC standard lines, they will have to carry additional equipment for such anyway, since it is the pinnacle of NIH and incompatible with anything else in the world. As for loading gauge, the Chinese cars as basically Siemens Velaro cars with the same loading gauge. It would be astounding if CAHSR adopts a loading gauge that is too small for those. As for power, I would be astounded if it is not 25kV 60Hz. So I think the whole big concern about compatibility may really be a huge storm in a small teacup.

Now, the state bureaucracy which is not a technical issue may be unpredictable and hard to deal with, but my guess is loading gauge, curve radii and what nots will be a non-issue.


----------



## leemell

You hit the nail on the head. Most of this is just noise in the signal so to speak. The Chinese (and XpressWest) are not so stupid as to create incompatible systems and then try to use this system as a selling point for other systems in the US. Besides, it would be an obstacle to be overcome to using the CHSR tracks.


----------



## leemell

XpressWest has changed the trainset to Siemens Velaro clone "CRH3". The maximum speed was raised from 150 mph to 201mph.


----------



## The Davy Crockett

Need I say more?


----------



## cirdan

leemell said:


> XpressWest has changed the trainset to Siemens Velaro clone "CRH3". The maximum speed was raised from 150 mph to 201mph.


I don't know how much importance one should attach to non-captioned pictures.

The website is probably outsourced to some web design company who may be using stock photography. I wouldn't try to read too much into details at this point.


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## DSS&A

Hi,

The Nevada appointed commission had a big meeting this week and will be issuing a Request For Proposals for a HSR system with the proposals due in November 2015!!!! Here's a link to an article with the big news:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/traffic-transportation/nevada-high-speed-rail-authority-sets-framework-choosing-operator


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## CHamilton

XpressWest draws nominal high-speed rail competitors


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## DSS&A

Hi,

XpressWest was selected by the Nevada Commission and construction may start ass soon as October 2016. Here's a link to the article.

http://www.govtech.com/transportation/High-Speed-Rail-Project-Moves-Forward-in-Nevada.html


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## Eric S

DSS&A said:


> Hi,
> 
> XpressWest was selected by the Nevada Commission and construction may start ass soon as October 2016. Here's a link to the article.
> 
> http://www.govtech.com/transportation/High-Speed-Rail-Project-Moves-Forward-in-Nevada.html


Bit of a typo in there, but I wonder if it might be appropriate, given all the starts and stops with this project/proposal.


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## jis

Where is the rest of the funding coming from?


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## seat38a

Pretty much the whole business model of xpress west fails without CAHSR. Not sure about others, but if I get in the car, and have to drive to Victorville to get on a train, I'm going to drive all the way. Getting up and over Cajon Pass is no easy feat with the nasty traffic. I don't think anyone would be throwing money at this without a future where they can connect to CAHSR down to LA.

When the CAHSR segment through the Inland Empire to San Diego gets built, I'm wondering if there could be another privately funded HSR project between Phoenix and LAX that uses the CAHSR for the last mile into LA. The most cost prohibitive part of the the system, building through socal, would already be built out by CAHSR.

In theory with the expected line speed, it would be quite possible to get from the Bay Area to Las Vegas and Phoenix via HSR.


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## DSS&A

Hi,

Sorry about the typo error. If Nevada HSR is operational before CAHSR is operational, Metrolink could run express trains LA to Palmdale until the CAHSR segment is operational.


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## CHamilton

High-Speed Rail to Vegas Getting Real
Nevada chooses a Chinese-backed venture to move forward, work could start next year


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## leemell

On Chinese web sites (sorry I do not have links) they claimed that the China _Railway_ Rolling Stock _Corporation_ is prepared to invest 7-8 $B to complete the route to Los Angeles.


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## jis

Well, for them it is just swapping out one type of debt instrument (US Bonds) from the US for another sort (Nevada HSR Bonds), albeit somewhat riskier stuff, assuming it is Government of China that is underwriting all this in the background.


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## neroden

Riskier bonds with *higher interest rates*. Also, the Government of China isn't really one thing; it has lots of different factions. And they're very capitalist. This faction would of course like to earn higher returns on their money so that they get ahead in the "money race".


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## DSS&A

Hi,

Here's a link to a new article about how Las Vegas is updating it's long tern view on transportation issues and is considering light rail and other transit improvements. If the HSR project moves forward, a light rail connection to the HSR station is a natural choice for the "first mile/last mile" of some trip connecting to the strip.

http://m.lasvegassun.com/news/2015/dec/09/why-las-vegas-transportation-leaders-think-time-ri/


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## Anderson

> Aguero thinks Las Vegas also has an advantage for light rail because of its attractive farebox recovery rate, which reflects how much of a transit system’s operating costs are covered by passenger fares. Already, *current public transit on the Strip generates a 163 percent farebox recovery*, according to Aguero, far exceeding the national average and helping to make light rail attractive for possible private investment.


My thought on reading that was "Holy ****!" The Acela might manage that on a good day; the Lynchburger came close one year...but that is _amazing_. It's probably a mix of service industry workers, the fact that the route is a good "connector" and/or has lots of "feeder" routes, and the use of high-capacity vehicles (one of the two lines on the Strip uses double-decker buses). I wouldn't be shocked if there was a tourist/local gambler component in there, either...I can't vouch for parking prices on the Strip but I remember traffic being less-than-ideal, and from what I can tell where the two overlap you have a bus about every 7-10 minutes except in the middle of the night (when it's every 20 minutes...which is still _far_ more than most other bus routes in the country see).


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## DSS&A

Hi,

Efforts are in the works to help minimize pacts to the environment to allow the new line to be built on an alignment that follows the interstate for a portion of the route and also reduce construction coats. Here's a link to an article about the latest news on this project.

http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/passenger/high-performance/new-legislation-introduced-to-advance-nev-calif-high-speed-rail-project.html?channel=54


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## DSS&A

Xpresswest has been mal8ng progrrss on their project, but goverment approvals are slowing down the project from their original schedule by a few months. Here's a link to an article with current project information. It's interesting that the newspaper writer focused on one small sentence about the separate hyperloop project idea and not the HSR project update presentation.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/traffic-transportation/xpresswest-executives-have-talked-hyperloop-one-about-high-speed-rail


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## seat38a

The Chinese building the system has been cancelled. http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-xpresswest-rail-line-20160608-snap-story.html


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## Palmetto

Nobody should be surprised. Some thought the project was a sham from get-go.


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## seat38a

Palmetto said:


> Nobody should be surprised. Some thought the project was a sham from get-go.


Thought it was all smoke and mirror from day one.


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## Northeastern292

Only way XpressWest is getting built is if the feds put a temporary relaxation on the Buy America laws to allow for equipment to come online built overseas and the industry opens plants here in the states. The overseas firms are dying to expand into new markets and are willing to invest in some part.


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