# Brightline/Virgin Trains Orlando-Miami update Orlando Sentinel 11/21/19



## AmtrakWPK

Orlando Sentinel article November 21, 2019. Discusses the construction that has begun at the Orlando end, and plans, which include connections to SunRail and Disney, but with no details as to how they intend to make those connections. Estimated fare ORL-MIA of $60-$100 one-way. They are building a $70 Million Vehicle Maintenance Facility just South of Orlando International Airport. 62 Acres, 6 miles of track, 139,000 square foot building. It will include a train wash, utilizing 1,000 gallons per train and recycling 80% of it. The maintenance facility will be 1,000 feet long. Each train will have two engines and 10 cars,15' height, a 1,300-foot consist. They will be operating 10 equipment sets, with 7 kept at Orlando overnight. Link: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/new...0191121-idmqsc3zgrgk7espcuqypunbca-story.html


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## railiner

AmtrakWPK said:


> Orlando Sentinel article November 21, 2019. Discusses the construction that has begun at the Orlando end, and plans, which include connections to SunRail and Disney, but with no details as to how they intend to make those connections. Estimated fare ORL-MIA of $60-$100 one-way. They are building a $70 Million Vehicle Maintenance Facility just South of Orlando International Airport. 62 Acres, 6 miles of track, 139,000 square foot building. It will include a train wash, utilizing 1,000 gallons per train and recycling 80% of it. The maintenance facility will be 1,000 feet long. Each train will have two engines and 10 cars,15' height, a 1,300-foot consist. They will be operating 10 equipment sets, with 7 kept at Orlando overnight. Link: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/new...0191121-idmqsc3zgrgk7espcuqypunbca-story.html


1,300 foot long consist?
10 85 foot cars =850 feet plus maybe 70 feet per engine, would yield <1,000 feet...


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## Qapla

AmtrakWPK said:


> The maintenance facility will be 1,000 feet long. Each train will have two engines and 10 cars



It seems they have matched the service facility to the consist ... with each of the SBC-40 engines being 71'6" and the coaches being 85' - the consist should measure 993' ... should fit nicely in the 1,000' service facility.


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## AmtrakWPK

railiner said:


> 1,300 foot long consist?
> 10 85 foot cars =850 feet plus maybe 70 feet per engine, would yield <1,000 feet...


From the article: "The maintenance facility will be 1,000 feet long, while each train with two locomotive and 10 passenger cars will be 15 feet tall and 1,300 feet long." I'm just the reporter here.....


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## jis

Apparently the people who wrote the article are not very good at arithmetic , a very common malady in this country, I might add. You just have to look at the plight of the poor saps at cash registers when power fails or the register are otherwise rendered inoperative. 

It is also worth pondering why someone would design a 1,000' long maintenance facility building when the trains are 1,300' long. Well they designed a 1,000' facility because the trains are actually shorter than 1,000', and most likely the writer has put his/her brain in neutral while writing this up.


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## Qapla

Maybe they think it stretches out that long when it is being pulled ...


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## west point

Maybe someone at Brightline said that trains in the future could be as long as 1300 ft ? We can hope that demand is so strong that that long of a train would be needed??


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## Anderson

I recall there being occasional discussions of trains getting up into the ballpark of 10-11 cars if the service got fully fleshed-out. There _may_ have been some documentation suggesting 13-car trains as a possible peak (after which you'd reasonably look at adding frequencies down in the 7-9 car range), which _would_ correspond to something just under 1300'.


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## AmtrakWPK

Qapla said:


> Maybe they think it stretches out that long when it is being pulled ...


Maybe they measured it with rubber couplers and ultra-stretch braking.......


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## me_little_me

AmtrakWPK said:


> Maybe they measured it with rubber couplers and ultra-stretch braking.......


Disney cartoon trains?


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## jis

Anderson said:


> I recall there being occasional discussions of trains getting up into the ballpark of 10-11 cars if the service got fully fleshed-out. There _may_ have been some documentation suggesting 13-car trains as a possible peak (after which you'd reasonably look at adding frequencies down in the 7-9 car range), which _would_ correspond to something just under 1300'.


I doubt that theory, since I specifically have asked Patrick (Goddard) if they would go beyond 10 cars, and he said that as unlikely since they do not have the infrastructure designed for anything longer. They would rather operate more frequent service should demand grow to that point than increase the length of trains. Remember that for all practical purposes these are fixed consists trains and they have no plans to vary the individual consists on a daily basis or even weekly basis, other than to swap out collision damage and such.

They have relatively low utilization track infrastructure in all their known current operating plans. Even for Miami to Fort Lauderdale, for any eventual Coastal TriRail they are going to require the addition of a third track thus essentially preserving the unused capacity for now on the original two.


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## Anderson

jis said:


> I doubt that theory, since I specifically have asked Patrick (Goddard) if they would go beyond 10 cars, and he said that as unlikely since they do not have the infrastructure designed for anything longer. They would rather operate more frequent service should demand grow to that point than increase the length of trains. Remember that for all practical purposes these are fixed consists trains and they have no plans to vary the individual consists on a daily basis or even weekly basis, other than to swap out collision damage and such.
> 
> They have relatively low utilization track infrastructure in all their known current operating plans. Even for Miami to Fort Lauderdale, for any eventual Coastal TriRail they are going to require the addition of a third track thus essentially preserving the unused capacity for now on the original two.


For what it is worth, there are two possibilities:
(1) I think I may have extrapolated train length based on ridership/frequency projections (which didn't line up with one another).
(2) There was also a lot of variation in the early versions of the plan (it's been close to a decade since this started and I know a lot of stuff varied due to costs, developments, and delays).

Both would make sense, especially given the various cases provided in the various studies and reports.


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## Brian_tampa

Initial service to Orlando will start with 5 coach cars for each trainset on 8 round trips each day. They will take several years to get to needing the seven car trainsets that they have said is the full build-out size. I think 10 car trainsets are only going to happen if ridership wildly exceeds event their own projections. We might be looking at 10 years down the road (2032 time frame) before that happens IMO.

Edit: I can see them increasing service from 8 to 16 RT's per day long before they increase the length. 16RT per day was the expected full build out service level. Also unknown is what affect Tampa service may have on the number and length of trainsets. Another item to think about is any special local theme park service around Orlando.


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## jis

16 RT over a 16 hour day is 1tph in each direction. If it is over 8 hour day it is 2tph in each direction. That is what I meant by light loading on the infrastructure.

My guess is they will explore short turn service to cover denser travel segments too, if there is money to be made that way. That is why I see the possibility that they might go after the TriRail Coastal service contract to run it themselves, possibly with a different set of equipment more suited for a lower fare but significantly slower service more appropriate for possibly more crowded and more frequent suburban service. It would not be unreasonable to leave the WPB service as is adding three extra stops to it, and overlay a separate hourly service to Orlando with the originally planned stopping pattern perhaps.

But of course, we will have to wait and see. It will depend on the pattern of ridership growth etc.


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## Anderson

jis said:


> 16 RT over a 16 hour day is 1tph in each direction. If it is over 8 hour day it is 2tph in each direction. That is what I meant by light loading on the infrastructure.
> 
> My guess is they will explore short turn service to cover denser travel segments too, if there is money to be made that way. That is why I see the possibility that they might go after the TriRail Coastal service contract to run it themselves, possibly with a different set of equipment more suited for a lower fare but significantly slower service more appropriate for possibly more crowded and more frequent suburban service. It would not be unreasonable to leave the WPB service as is adding three extra stops to it, and overlay a separate hourly service to Orlando with the originally planned stopping pattern perhaps.
> 
> But of course, we will have to wait and see. It will depend on the pattern of ridership growth etc.



14-16/day is what was initially proposed (it was hourly service but there was some pondering over start/stop times).


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## AmtrakWPK

me_little_me said:


> Disney cartoon trains?


Actually, with that reference to Disney.... Since they already made a reference to a Disney connection in Orlando for pax, maybe they are already talking to Disney about carrying some of their cruise ship pax, and are doing some additional planning they haven't disclosed yet. If Disney ships made a port call to South Florida where they will have a direct to port connection, that would actually work.


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## jis

AmtrakWPK said:


> Actually, with that reference to Disney.... Since they already made a reference to a Disney connection in Orlando for pax, maybe they are already talking to Disney about carrying some of their cruise ship pax, and are doing some additional planning they haven't disclosed yet. If Disney ships made a port call to South Florida where they will have a direct to port connection, that would actually work.


While the Disney Resort will be served, it won't be through a station on Disney property. The station will be outside Disney property, at least as far as the story goes for now. The station will attempt to serve the resort area including Disney and others.

I would be very surprised if Disney would give up its own captive bus connected cruises out of Port Canaveral to opt for Brightline connected cruise from Port Miami. Why pay someone else to take your customers further away (three hours plus) to join your cruise involving a transfer from a shuttle to a train, when you already have a setup that is entirely in house with a one hour direct connection from hotel doorsteps to the ship?


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## Anderson

jis said:


> While the Disney Resort will be served, it won't be through a station on Disney property. The station will be outside Disney property, at least as far as the story goes for now. The station will attempt to serve the resort area including Disney and others.
> 
> I would be very surprised if Disney would give up its own captive bus connected cruises out of Port Canaveral to opt for Brightline connected cruise from Port Miami. Why pay someone else to take your customers further away (three hours plus) to join your cruise involving a transfer from a shuttle to a train, when you already have a setup that is entirely in house with a one hour direct connection from hotel doorsteps to the ship?


Well, it depends on the definition of "pay for". If you can pass most of the cost through successfully, who cares? The real shame is that it isn't practical for Brightline to run a line over to Port Canaveral from MCO, and doing some sort of disembarkation dance at Cocoa is just making for a hassle (and no, I don't think it is practical...you'd have two long bridges and the housing developments get too close to A1A).


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## jis

Somehow in a contest between a train ride that requires bus rides at one and possibly both ends to get to the train vs. a bus ride from the hotel doorsteps to close to the boarding terminal for the ship, does not work out too favorably for the train when as far as the customer is concerned it is all part of the package. As long as the end to end time is about the same, why would anyone choose one or two additional transfers on a one hour journey given the choice?


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## cirdan

jis said:


> Somehow in a contest between a train ride that requires bus rides at one and possibly both ends to get to the train vs. a bus ride from the hotel doorsteps to close to the boarding terminal for the ship, does not work out too favorably for the train when as far as the customer is concerned it is all part of the package. As long as the end to end time is about the same, why would anyone choose one or two additional transfers on a one hour journey given the choice?



I have never been on a Disney Cruise and have never visited Disneyworld either, so I don't know what is normal there or what people expect. But just maybe if you package the train ride as an attraction in its own right, there you have your justificaion / selling point. Such a selling point might be some form of on train entertainment, which would not be viable on a bus. But then I agree with you that it's unlikely that Disney would consider such a thing or that it would be especially popular among visitors. Plus of course the logistical challenge of keeping Disney passengers separated from normal passengers on the train for the purpose of that entertainment.

Where I see the bigger question is in the location. If the Disney station will not be on Disney property but just in the general sort of vicinity (whatever that means) we are most likely looking into a distance that is too far to walk so there would have to be a bus shuttle from Disney to the station or some other form of transfer. This would lessen the overall attractivity of having a Disney station, seeing if you're packing your people onto a bus anyway, why not drive them straight to Orlando airport? Which is basically what Disney already does today. Any added value the train may be offering here (or anywhere else) is lessened if onward transfers are needed. This is why it was a such a stroke of genius that Brightline could run straight into downtown Miami and thus tap the business market there. But business travellers don't typically do Disney. It seems to me that a connection is being made between incompatible markets that aren't crying to be connected.


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## crescent-zephyr

cirdan said:


> I have never been on a Disney Cruise and have never visited Disneyworld either,



If you’re ever in Florida you really should visit the Disney property even if you don’t visit the parks. You can actually ride all of the transportation for free. Including busses, monorails, and several different types and sizes of boats and ferries. 

Parking at Disney Springs is free, and you can take busses or boats to various resorts from there.

The Disney Cruise line bus is not “in house” it is operated by Mears.


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## MARC Rider

cirdan said:


> But business travellers don't typically do Disney.


 
A professional association I belonged to had a conference at a Disney World property. All those hotels have conference rooms, and they aren't for tourists. There may be more business travel than you think.


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## neroden

Nobody really knows how the Virgin Trains station is going to integrate with Disney. I hope there is eventually some opportunity for public comment, because it could be done very well or very badly.

The last proposal I read had the station around the junction with 417, near Celebration. But I also seem to remember documents which showed the route going from 417 to I-4 via Osceola Parkway.

It took me several hours of Googling to find a copy of this. One option follows 417 all the way, two others hop over around Osceola Parkway. https://www.urbanplanet.org/forums/topic/115622-virgin-trains-fka-brightline/page/24/ 

Consensus seems to be that the Osceola Parkway options are Disney-friendly (they detour onto Disney property) and that the direct 417 option (which entirely avoids Disney property) will only be used if talks with Disney fall through. Apparently so far Disney is supportive, so Disney will probably want the station to tie into Disney's resorts and make it harder to get to everyone else's attractions. (The track routing already bypasses Universal Studios and Seaworld.)

My conclusion would be that the station would likely be near the "ESPN Wide World Of Sports" complex, or possibly the "Fourth Laundry Operation". It is possible that it might be further north, or south, or east depending on how talks work out, but this seems like the target location at the moment.

Whereever it ends up, Disney will have to extend some services to connect to the train station. It's probably simplest for them to extend buses, but I hope the Disney management is a little more inspired than that; people arriving by train would probably strongly prefer a train transfer, or something more exotic.


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## cirdan

MARC Rider said:


> A professional association I belonged to had a conference at a Disney World property. All those hotels have conference rooms, and they aren't for tourists. There may be more business travel than you think.



I can well imagine that. I attended a professional convention in Orlando once in a hotel just outside Universal Studios. The convention facility was huge. The official dinner on the last night was actually held in a ballroom inside Universal Studios but we didn't have much opportunity to look around or see stuff there. We were entertained by various people dressed up as famous movie and cartoon characters doing all sorts of acts. This was many many years ago mind you. Unfortunately I was on a tight schedule as otherwise I would have stayed on for an extra day or two to look around.

I gather Las Vegas is also big on conventions.


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## jis

I have participated in week long standards meetings in one of the Disney hotels in Orlando. So yes. They do host professional business meetings.

Recently we had a meeting at the Lowe's hotel in the Universal Resort too.

So yeah, many business meetings take place at the resort hotels.


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## Qapla

I found this map showing possible routing and stops for the Orlando to Tampa extension - they do plan on following I-4 and using however much of the I-4 ROW they can


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## Anderson

@jis I think we're in "violent agreement" here. If you could get the train down to the cruise docks, that would be one thing (a hotel transfer to the train station isn't overkill, and I do wonder if there's not a salable proposition of handling the security checks, if not the passport checks, at the station to be had...mind you, I don't know if that _could_ be done without making a mess of things given Totally Stupid Administration rules, but it would be worth consideration given how backed-up-to-hell cruise ports tend to get).

@Qapla That's from the previous project from circa 2010. Now, Brightline is likely to do something similar...but it is anybody's guess as to what the actual plans will end up being. For example, the interface stop with SunRail wasn't in the original proposal.


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## Qapla

Regardless of where they decide to put a Disney stop - it is still 16 miles from the Airport to Disney. The benefit of a train over a shuttle is that the train does not have to stop for traffic lights and traffic jams ... something that is getting worse in the Celebration/Kissimmee/Disney area


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## Dixie

Disney does quite a bit of cruise business out of Miami (and 3x/week out of Port Canaveral/Cocoa), so it's in their best interest to play nice with Brightline to provide train service from the World to PortMiami and keep those guests in the Disney bubble, so to speak. 
With three new ships joining the Disney Cruise fleet in '22, '23, '24, there will be a huge need for increased transportation from WDW to both Port Canaveral and Miami and who knows what other ports in Florida and elsewhere (yet to be announced/determined). Royal Caribbean is porting their huge 5000+passenger Oasis-class ships in Canaveral now and Norwegian has also put some of their larger ships there as well, and Carnival has been increasing the size of their ships at Canaveral, too. 
It's dumb IMO not to work with Port Canaveral to get Brightline out there from MCO airport for all the cruise traffic. The port served over 4.5 million passengers in 2018. That is a lot of bus/taxi/uber traffic that could easily be converted to passenger rail and get those cars off the road.


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## Anderson

Dixie said:


> Disney does quite a bit of cruise business out of Miami (and 3x/week out of Port Canaveral/Cocoa), so it's in their best interest to play nice with Brightline to provide train service from the World to PortMiami and keep those guests in the Disney bubble, so to speak.
> With three new ships joining the Disney Cruise fleet in '22, '23, '24, there will be a huge need for increased transportation from WDW to both Port Canaveral and Miami and who knows what other ports in Florida and elsewhere (yet to be announced/determined). Royal Caribbean is porting their huge 5000+passenger Oasis-class ships in Canaveral now and Norwegian has also put some of their larger ships there as well, and Carnival has been increasing the size of their ships at Canaveral, too.
> It's dumb IMO not to work with Port Canaveral to get Brightline out there from MCO airport for all the cruise traffic. The port served over 4.5 million passengers in 2018. That is a lot of bus/taxi/uber traffic that could easily be converted to passenger rail and get those cars off the road.


The question is the net cost of starting such a service. You'd be looking at needing about eight miles of track (this might be doable on single track) with most of that as a bridge. That won't be cheap. The junction work needed to access Port Canaveral from both the Miami and Orlando directions would also be a potential mess.

The flipside is that, based on existing cruise numbers, there's probably a market of 500k-1m pax/year if you can cover access from both sides (Miami/Fort Lauderdale and Orlando), and those pax would presumably mostly ride twice.


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## jis

I think any extension to Port Canaveral is going to remain a wet dream of dreamers for a while yet, unless someone steps forward to foot the cost of construction of the facilities. Even if it happens, it is probably more than 15 years away. Too many other more lucrative projects to pay attention to first.

Disney I am sure will choose whatever makes business sense for them at the time. As long as Brightline gives them a deal they can't refuse, cheaper than Mears they'll take it, and Mears will work hard to undercut Brightline on the Disney - Port Canaveral business, if and when Brightline is able to make a reasonably usable proposal. That is how these things go.

BTW, the necessary bridge will be crossing the Intercoastal Waterway, so will have to conform to clearance requirements for it. It will either have to be as high as the SR528 Causeway Bridge, or be a movable bridge. Both adds significant expense. As @Anderson said, won't be cheap at all. It could come out costing a very significant proportion of the SR528 segment between Cocoa and Orlando. Personally I think that money would be better spent as part of an electrification project for the Miami - Orlando segment and possible jacking up the speed between Cocoa and Orlando while at it.

It will also be interesting to see what service pattern they land up with around Orlando. They will have three stations in the Orlando area - OIA, Meadow Woods (SunRail connection), Resorts (Disney connection). If the only service connecting these is the hourly Tampa service, that will get swamped by local traffic leaving few seats for through traffic to Tampa from anywhere other than Resorts. So it would seem that Brightline will have to enter into what amounts to commuter business in the Orlando area in addition to the Express service to Tampa and Miami. Should be interesting to see how they go about handling this. Seems similar to a developing issue on the Coastal Corridor from Miami.

As for cruise terminal traffic, if they can set up connecting bus/van service between Cocoa-Rockledge and Canaveral Cruise Terminal, and also Tampa to Tampa Cruise Terminal, they could capture local traffic to cruise ships as well as a segment of commuting employees perhaps for relatively little additional expense. From Cocoa-Rockledge, they could do a shuttle that hits both the Canaveral Cruise Terminal and Kennedy Space Center too.Indeed Space Coast Area Transit could take that on together with an express bus connection to its Melbourne - Palm Bay network.


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## Brian_tampa

jis said:


> It will also be interesting to see what service pattern they land up with around Orlando. They will have three stations in the Orlando area - OIA, Meadow Woods (SunRail connection), Resorts (Disney connection). If the only service connecting these is the hourly Tampa service, that will get swamped by local traffic leaving few seats for through traffic to Tampa from anywhere other than Resorts. So it would seem that Brightline will have to enter into what amounts to commuter business in the Orlando area in addition to the Express service to Tampa and Miami. Should be interesting to see how they go about handling this. Seems similar to a developing issue on the Coastal Corridor from Miami.


Back at the April 2019 FDFC board meeting in Orlando held to approve the last PAB allocation, a person working on the phase 2 project (an engineer I think) told me that Brightline was considering using DMU trainsets for local service between MCO/MeadowWoods/Resorts. It was also mentioned they might be Disney themed trainsets. I would imagine if this came to pass, that it would consist of several 2 or 3 car length trainsets. That would solve the problem of local Orlando ridership overwhelming intercity service to/from Tampa that you mention.

On another topic, has anyone heard any update on the FDOT/CFX lease negotiations with Brightline? It is now Dec 1 and only 30 more days until the latest deadline.


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## jis

Brian_tampa said:


> Back at the April 2019 FDFC board meeting in Orlando held to approve the last PAB allocation, a person working on the phase 2 project (an engineer I think) told me that Brightline was considering using DMU trainsets for local service between MCO/MeadowWoods/Resorts. It was also mentioned they might be Disney themed trainsets. I would imagine if this came to pass, that it would consist of several 2 or 3 car length trainsets. That would solve the problem of local Orlando ridership overwhelming intercity service to/from Tampa that you mention.


Good to know. Maybe they will do something similar with the whole slowly developing Coastal Commuter thing developing between Miami and Fort Lauderdale for now, and inevitably will extend to West Palm Beach.

I wonder if there will be fare segregation between express service and local service. I think it is very likely.

Anyway, this is all good, since just running 16 trains each way on an RoW that is capable of hosting many times more would seem like extreme under-utilization and leaving potential money on the table anyway.


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## west point

jis will the no local traffic from Orlando to Cocoa provision from the turnpike authority have any problems that would eliminate the traffic to Port Canaveral 
'?


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## jis

west point said:


> jis will the no local traffic from Orlando to Cocoa provision from the turnpike authority have any problems that would eliminate the traffic to Port Canaveral
> '?


It was actually no local traffic between Orlando and anything north of West Palm Beach without negotiating compensation to CFTA.

They will have to negotiate with CFTA. But since the basic formula is now known it should not be a very lengthy discussion. They have to do that for all the proposed stations between West Palm Beach and Orlando anyway. It potentially adds at most a dollar or so to each fare, or something like that.

This also does not affect any trip that does not use the SR528 segment.


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## Anderson

jis said:


> It was actually no local traffic between Orlando and anything north of West Palm Beach without negotiating compensation to CFTA.
> 
> They will have to negotiate with CFTA. But since the basic formula is now known it should not be a very lengthy discussion. They have to do that for all the proposed stations between West Palm Beach and Orlando anyway. It potentially adds at most a dollar or so to each fare, or something like that.
> 
> This also does not affect any trip that does not use the SR528 segment.


There's a known quantity fare as long as they don't do "commuter" service, which was defined as "more than one station per county". If Brightline were to add more stops that might reopen the fare negotiation...but there might be a loophole if the Orlando-area-bound trains don't make the additional stops (thinking in the context of possible commuter service running a few stops past WPB).


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## cirdan

Qapla said:


> I found this map showing possible routing and stops for the Orlando to Tampa extension - they do plan on following I-4 and using however much of the I-4 ROW they can



That looks like a prety cruel reverse curve south of Orlando airport. Too many go-slow segments can wreck the entire HSR concept. Furthermore, if Disney passengers are being transferred from the airport, this may well be their first taste of a high speed train so they should really seek to make that short segment as high speed as possible to show off the technology at its best.


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## cirdan

jis said:


> Anyway, this is all good, since just running 16 trains each way on an RoW that is capable of hosting many times more would seem like extreme under-utilization and leaving potential money on the table anyway.



I expect in the longer term this is what will happen anyway.

But by the time you're running 4 trains per hour or more, electrification would be a good idea to look into, so over-investing in equipment today would not be wise.


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## crescent-zephyr

cirdan said:


> That looks like a prety cruel reverse curve south of Orlando airport. Too many go-slow segments can wreck the entire HSR concept. Furthermore, if Disney passengers are being transferred from the airport, this may well be their first taste of a high speed train so they should really seek to make that short segment as high speed as possible to show off the technology at its best.


 That map is not the brightline route.


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## jis

Anderson said:


> There's a known quantity fare as long as they don't do "commuter" service, which was defined as "more than one station per county". If Brightline were to add more stops that might reopen the fare negotiation...but there might be a loophole if the Orlando-area-bound trains don't make the additional stops (thinking in the context of possible commuter service running a few stops past WPB).


I am sure there will also be some fare negotiations to account for traffic removed from the SR417 tollway corridor and indirectly from the western end of SR528 by the OIA - Meadow Woods - Resorts segment of the OIA - Tampa route.


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## jis

cirdan said:


> That looks like a prety cruel reverse curve south of Orlando airport. Too many go-slow segments can wreck the entire HSR concept. Furthermore, if Disney passengers are being transferred from the airport, this may well be their first taste of a high speed train so they should really seek to make that short segment as high speed as possible to show off the technology at its best.


I'd strongly recommend ignoring that map that has been posted completely, since it does not reflect anything even close to the current plans other than using the I-4 RoW for a significant part of the rail route between where SR417 crosses I-4 and the boundary of Tampa. Even there the exact routing through Lakeland is a bit up in the air. And in particular, the routing between OIA and I-4 is nowhere near what is shown on that map, which was a piece of wishful thinking in the past.

As we have discussed above, the OIA to Resorts passengers will most likely travel mostly by local commuter style DMUs and not by the Express trains anyway. It is just a 16 mile trip with one stop on the way at Meadow Woods to interchange with SunRail.

Incidentally, not a single inch of Brightline can be classified as HSR in standard world terminology, and the segment between OIA and Resorts will most likely not even be 125mph.


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## Rover

More deaths, but it is *not* the line's fault. Can't stop stupid.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets...rain-kills-more-per-mile-than-any-other-in-us


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## Anderson

jis said:


> I am sure there will also be some fare negotiations to account for traffic removed from the SR417 tollway corridor and indirectly from the western end of SR528 by the OIA - Meadow Woods - Resorts segment of the OIA - Tampa route.


Oh, agreed. IIRC the settlement also "only" covered OIA-Miami, not the Tampa extension (or anything else).


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## cirdan

jis said:


> As we have discussed above, the OIA to Resorts passengers will most likely travel mostly by local commuter style DMUs and not by the Express trains anyway. It is just a 16 mile trip with one stop on the way at Meadow Woods to interchange with SunRail.



Pie in the sky thinking here, and if at all applicable, then for a point in the far more distant future, but if this service will use a separate train type on a separate schedule, then why not build a branch right to where the people are so you don't need a bus transfer? Maybe as some form of mixed light and heavy rail hybrid as in a tram train but diesel powered, or even battery or fuel-cell powered? Seeing Disney is generally open about futuristic train concepts such as monorails , they might also sell this as an attraction in its own right and contribute to the costs.


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## Anderson

cirdan said:


> Pie in the sky thinking here, and if at all applicable, then for a point in the far more distant future, but if this service will use a separate train type on a separate schedule, then why not build a branch right to where the people are so you don't need a bus transfer? Maybe as some form of mixed light and heavy rail hybrid as in a tram train but diesel powered, or even battery or fuel-cell powered? Seeing Disney is generally open about futuristic train concepts such as monorails , they might also sell this as an attraction in its own right and contribute to the costs.


I mean, _in theory_ I could see them extending the monorail there...but apparently the per-mile cost there is truly problematic versus where it was in the 70s/early 80s.


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## neroden

Rover said:


> More deaths, but it is *not* the line's fault. Can't stop stupid.
> 
> https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets...rain-kills-more-per-mile-than-any-other-in-us


Miami also has the highest rate of pedestrians killed by cars in the US (Florida is the state with the highest rate), and Florida has really high car on car crash rates too. The causes are all the same: the average Florida driver is terrible and the Florida roads are badly designed.


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## neroden

Brian_tampa said:


> Back at the April 2019 FDFC board meeting in Orlando held to approve the last PAB allocation, a person working on the phase 2 project (an engineer I think) told me that Brightline was considering using DMU trainsets for local service between MCO/MeadowWoods/Resorts. It was also mentioned they might be Disney themed trainsets. I would imagine if this came to pass, that it would consist of several 2 or 3 car length trainsets. That would solve the problem of local Orlando ridership overwhelming intercity service to/from Tampa that you mention.




If they're going to have Disney themed commuter trainsets making their own runs... It starts to make sense to extend a branch line from Resorts straight to the middle of Disney, at the ticketing center. So the commuter trains would run OIA - SunRail - Resorts - DISNEY. The Resorts station would still be used for passengers transferring Tampa to Disney.

Due to the Reedy Creek Improvement District, Virgin Trains would only need money and approval from Disney to do this. No government approvals.

It would indeed make sense at that point to run direct trains from the Port of Miami to Disney for cruises, non-stop. That would only need a station at the port, and a trainset.

But I do not know if Disney has considered any of that.


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## Qapla

Perhaps Disney would think of owning/operating their own train on the Virgin Rail tracks from Disney to the port of Miami and just pay Virgin for the use of the rails.


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## west point

Now that is an interesting idea !


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## jis

Qapla said:


> Perhaps Disney would think of owning/operating their own train on the Virgin Rail tracks from Disney to the port of Miami and just pay Virgin for the use of the rails.



Disney buses in Orlando are all owned by Mears. Suddenly Disney will get the urge to own more expensive trains? [emoji849]


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## neroden

If Walt were alive, he would definitely own trains, but his successors are not railfans. That said they seem to have started recognizing the value of transportation rides as a selling point again, after the intervening managements ignored it for years in favor of cheap, nasty buses. The construction of the new gondolas indicates that.


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## neroden

Anderson said:


> I mean, _in theory_ I could see them extending the monorail there...but apparently the per-mile cost there is truly problematic versus where it was in the 70s/early 80s.


The Epcot monorail is sufficiently obsolete tech that it would be crazy expensive to extend. That said, building some new gadgetbahn is very much the Disney way, and there are plenty of candidates. Hyperloop? :eyeroll:


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## erierail

jis said:


> Disney buses in Orlando are all owned by Mears. Suddenly Disney will get the urge to own more expensive trains? [emoji849]


They also own thier in cruise ships. Never say never when it comes to Disney. These are the same people that charge 10 bucks to thier guest a night to park thier cars at thier hotels above the nightly room charges. If any one could make rail passenger service profitable it would be Disney. Not that I think it they ever consider it. But who knows.


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## Qapla

A bus is a bus ... no matter how you fancy it up it still shares the roadway with the crowded Orlando/Kissimmee traffic ... so, Disney may not want to "take ownership" of buses so they lease/rent them. Trains, on the other hand, do not stop for traffic and come in a variety of designs, including some very new technology ... maybe this would be enough to bring Disney to the rail ownership table - with Disney, you never know


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## Bob Dylan

Qapla said:


> A bus is a bus ... no matter how you fancy it up it still shares the roadway with the crowded Orlando/Kissimmee traffic ... so, Disney may not want to "take ownership" of buses so they lease/rent them. Trains, on the other hand, do not stop for traffic and come in a variety of designs, including some very new technology ... maybe this would be enough to bring Disney to the rail ownership table - with Disney, you never know


If Walt Disney was still alive this would already be a reality, he Loved Trains!


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## railiner

Bob Dylan said:


> If Walt Disney was still alive this would already be a reality, he Loved Trains!


Isn’t he still “alive”? Read that he was frozen into suspended animation, until technology advanced to cure his ailment...


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## Metra Electric Rider

I heard he was alive too. Will he and Sir Rod creature a future model railway once they emerge from suspended operation?

Maybe Disney should just rebuild the monorail entirely and extend it. I hear Alweg is having a special...


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## west point

Orlando and I-4 is one big traffic jam 18 hours a day.


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## Anderson

I've been down in Orlando and it's really not that bad outside of the construction area. At rush hour, yes, but that's about it on a large scale (at least, south of 528...downtown is a mess, but that's not at issue here).


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## Brian_tampa

Having travelled between Tampa and Orlando many times over the years, I-4 experiences bad traffic jams outside of rush hours. Especially Friday through Sunday. From 5 miles or so west of US27 in Polk County to downtown Orlando there can be backups caused by "normal" traffic. I-4 in general is a busy highway for its whole length from Tampa to Daytona Beach. Downtown Orlando is the epicenter of the worst traffic. If I need to go to Jacksonville from Tampa, I take I-75 to Gainesville to reach US301 and Starke, then east on I-10.

The current Orlando area construction area will expand in future years to US27 on the west end. Also, there is planned major work between Tampa and Lakeland in the coming decade. We went through the first rebuilding of I-4 20 years ago between Tampa and Orlando. It is a highway under almost continuous construction.


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## Qapla

My brother drives to and between Tampa and Orlando several times a week ... some of this is done during the daytime traffic hours and some of it is done at very early and/or late hours. He talks often about how bad the traffic is in the entire area as it often causes his day to run long.


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## AmtrakWPK

MARC Rider said:


> A professional association I belonged to had a conference at a Disney World property. All those hotels have conference rooms, and they aren't for tourists. There may be more business travel than you think.


There's a huge amount of association meetings and minor conventions - those sorts of meetings are going on ALL the time at all the hotels on and around Disney properties. They all use Disney as a huge selling point to their organizations - "Come have your meetings here, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, especially in the cold weather months (but really all year 'round), and bring the family. You can 'meet' while they're at the Parks. Or plan the meetings for the mornings and then spend the afternoons at the Parks. Or have the mini-convention Wed-Fri and Saturday morning for an hour and you've got the rest of it written off for taxes." Etc..... They run the whole thing like a well-oiled machine. Except the oil is all the money brought in by all those guests. And it's a LOT of money. At some of those you can expect to pay $40 to PARK if you're not staying at the hotel that's hosting the organization's meetings. And if you leave the morning session to go elsewhere to get lunch and then come back for the afternoon session, IT"S ANOTHER $40.


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## Tom in PA

Disney could well operate high-speed trains to Port Canaveral, delivering passengers back & forth to WDW. As it is, it's a bus ride. It could be an extension of Virgin's route along the Beach Line. The extension would be about ten miles or less.


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## Qapla

Disney could do a lot of things ... they seem to get permission to do almost anything they want while other companies get tied up in red tape and court proceedings.


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## MikefromCrete

Qapla said:


> Disney could do a lot of things ... they seem to get permission to do almost anything they want while other companies get tied up in red tape and court proceedings.



One of the reasons Disney does whatever it wants is that the Disney World property is politically the Reedy Creek Improvement District which controls zoning, building codes, fire protection, etc. And who sits on the district's Board of Directors? It's made up entirely of Disney employees. Neat trick. Old Walt was no fool.


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## jis

I finished reading through reams of documentation of the agreement between VTUSA and Virgin Enterprises. One of the clauses in it is interesting. It says that VTUSA is not permitted to compete with nor help someone compete with any of the Virgin branded services including entities like Virgin Cruises.

I wonder what impact this may or may not have regarding VTUSA property/service being used to transport passengers to Disney Cruises. Honestly, I have no idea. But it did catch my attention.


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## cirdan

jis said:


> I finished reading through reams of documentation of the agreement between VTUSA and Virgin Enterprises. One of the clauses in it is interesting. It says that VTUSA is not permitted to compete with nor help someone compete with any of the Virgin branded services including entities like Virgin Cruises.
> 
> I wonder what impact this may or may not have regarding VTUSA property/service being used to transport passengers to Disney Cruises. Honestly, I have no idea. But it did catch my attention.



Depends how they define compete. Would two cruise ships have to be on the exact same route or near exact same route to be considered in competition? Or are they just in competition because they are both cruise ships and are thus presumably fishing in broadly the same market.

By that definition Disney is in competition with both the Louvre and the Strassburg Railroad as they are all three vacation things.


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## jis

I see that you have identified a few possibilities from a possible large number of them. I specifically avoided that myself since what Virgin's actual intent is I don't know and have no way of knowing. They can also give exceptional dispensations per the agreement. I doubt that we can come to any conclusions. But those addicted to mental gymnastics - they can have a lot of fun with this while playing Virgin and VTUSA CEOs in negotiation


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## jis

Further information about construction of the West Palm - Orlando section, mainly talking about work on rebuilding or new bridges. 

https://www.thenextmiami.com/virgin...-with-approval-now-in-place-for-boca-station/


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## jis

Disney confirms discussions with Brightline regarding station on Disney property ...


https://www.wpbf.com/article/disney...=facebook&utm_source=trueAnthem:+New+Content#


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## cirdan

jis said:


> Further information about construction of the West Palm - Orlando section, mainly talking about work on rebuilding or new bridges.
> 
> https://www.thenextmiami.com/virgin...-with-approval-now-in-place-for-boca-station/



That article says



> As of last month, over 370,000 cubic yards had been cleared in preparation to begin laying rail.



Surely you clear square feet of ground, or move cubic feet of soil?


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## Anderson

It sounds like clumsy phrasing. I'd presumed it meant that they'd "cleared", as in moved, that much soil.


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## railiner

cirdan said:


> Depends how they define compete. Would two cruise ships have to be on the exact same route or near exact same route to be considered in competition? Or are they just in competition because they are both cruise ships and are thus presumably fishing in broadly the same market.
> 
> By that definition Disney is in competition with both the Louvre and the Strassburg Railroad as they are all three vacation things.



True they are both cruise lines...but they are after decidedly different markets within that stratum. We all know what "Disney" is about...
Virgin Voyages actually bans children under 18. And unlike Disney, they have a casino. So I don't know how many potential cruiser's would cross-shop those two...


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## west point

If Disney go forward with the station at Disney world they might spring for the $20M + to build a line to Port Canaveral for their ships and others ?


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## daybeers

Anderson said:


> It sounds like clumsy phrasing. I'd presumed it meant that they'd "cleared", as in moved, that much soil.


Same here.


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## jis

west point said:


> If Disney go forward with the station at Disney world they might spring for the $20M + to build a line to Port Canaveral for their ships and others ?


It will cost much much more than $20 million to build new tracks from Cocoa FECR to Port Canaveral even if it is is done along the SR528 RoW.


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## neroden

I'm really wondering about how the planned station on Disney property will connect to the actual Disney parks and hotels. They could just do it the sloppy way with the Disney buses, but it would get them a lot more business if they made a bus-free, fixed-guideway connection -- considering what sort of customers are most likely to arrive by train!


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## Anderson

neroden said:


> I'm really wondering about how the planned station on Disney property will connect to the actual Disney parks and hotels. They could just do it the sloppy way with the Disney buses, but it would get them a lot more business if they made a bus-free, fixed-guideway connection -- considering what sort of customers are most likely to arrive by train!


I think they'll need to go with a bus, at least to start with. Remember, "the actual Disney parks and hotels" comprises a whole bunch of points (four main parks and a _lot_ of hotels) that won't slide nicely onto a single system. If they'd gone with the "unified monorail system" idea back in the 80s, they'd probably shotgun the two together somehow. Now? They've got way too many modes floating about, too big of a park, and too frakking many transfers would be needed.


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## neroden

They should at least have a fixed guideway to the Magic Kingdom or the Ticketing Center. Buses are... Unattractive. Multiple transfers are OK if they are all *themed* transfers reflecting the "experience", but buses break the suspension of disbelief for most of the parks.

What they really ought to do is have multiple point to point lines from the train station, each themed to the park/resort it is heading to. This fits the Disney idea of starting the vacation experience as soon as possible. So, futuristic or international themed transport to Epcot, retro or fantasy themed transport to Magic Kingdom, boat transport to the watrerparks, safari themed transport to the Animal Kingdom, you get the idea.


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## Qapla

Although "Trams" are not "futuristic" - they would fit the Theme Park idea and not need tracks.


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## Willbridge

Good points about convention/conference travel. A "discovery" that we made at OreDOT years ago is that typical transport studies just had a catch-all business trip purpose. In fact, conference/convention travelers do not behave in the stereotypical manner of road warriors, but most studies mashed them together.


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## MARC Rider

neroden said:


> They should at least have a fixed guideway to the Magic Kingdom or the Ticketing Center. Buses are... Unattractive. Multiple transfers are OK if they are all *themed* transfers reflecting the "experience", but buses break the suspension of disbelief for most of the parks.
> 
> What they really ought to do is have multiple point to point lines from the train station, each themed to the park/resort it is heading to. This fits the Disney idea of starting the vacation experience as soon as possible. So, futuristic or international themed transport to Epcot, retro or fantasy themed transport to Magic Kingdom, boat transport to the watrerparks, safari themed transport to the Animal Kingdom, you get the idea.


This is perhaps overdoing the need for some sort of themed travel experience. On my one trip to Disney World with my wife and 8-year old daughter in 1999, we stayed at the Wilderness Lodge, and, except for the boat ride to the Magic Kingdom, we relied on the Disney buses to get us places. Yeah, we took the bus to the ticketing center to ride the monorail to Epcot, but when we needed to get back to the hotel later in the evening, the direct bus was fine. What's important is the buses are frequent and go everywhere. 

Whether they need a fixed guideway from the Virgin Trains Station to the parks really depends on how bad the traffic is, and whether the buses get caught in the traffic. What travelers would really want is a single seat ride from the train station to their hotel or directly to the park, if they're day-trippers. It d0esn't really matter whether it's a bus or some sort of fixed guideway gadgetbahn.


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## Anderson

MARC Rider said:


> This is perhaps overdoing the need for some sort of themed travel experience. On my one trip to Disney World with my wife and 8-year old daughter in 1999, we stayed at the Wilderness Lodge, and, except for the boat ride to the Magic Kingdom, we relied on the Disney buses to get us places. Yeah, we took the bus to the ticketing center to ride the monorail to Epcot, but when we needed to get back to the hotel later in the evening, the direct bus was fine. What's important is the buses are frequent and go everywhere.
> 
> Whether they need a fixed guideway from the Virgin Trains Station to the parks really depends on how bad the traffic is, and whether the buses get caught in the traffic. What travelers would really want is a single seat ride from the train station to their hotel or directly to the park, if they're day-trippers. It d0esn't really matter whether it's a bus or some sort of fixed guideway gadgetbahn.


Well, and the cost of a (well, yet another) bespoke "gadgetbahn" is something that comes into play here. I tend to agree that a link to the TTC (to preserve that suspension of disbelief for both Magic Kingdom/Epcot visitors and for the folks staying at the high-dollar "monorail hotels") would be ideal. The point about dressing them up the links as trams (or something that otherwise at least has the pretense of being "not a bus") is a good one. However, where the station ends up being will impact what should be done/what can be done affordably.


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## jiml

MARC Rider said:


> This is perhaps overdoing the need for some sort of themed travel experience. On my one trip to Disney World with my wife and 8-year old daughter in 1999, we stayed at the Wilderness Lodge, and, except for the boat ride to the Magic Kingdom, we relied on the Disney buses to get us places. Yeah, we took the bus to the ticketing center to ride the monorail to Epcot, but when we needed to get back to the hotel later in the evening, the direct bus was fine. What's important is the buses are frequent and go everywhere.
> 
> Whether they need a fixed guideway from the Virgin Trains Station to the parks really depends on how bad the traffic is, and whether the buses get caught in the traffic. What travelers would really want is a single seat ride from the train station to their hotel or directly to the park, if they're day-trippers. It d0esn't really matter whether it's a bus or some sort of fixed guideway gadgetbahn.


My experience dates from the same period, when our kids were much younger, however this observation is spot-on. We were frequent visitors there from the 70's to early 2000's and Disney had transportation figured out for that entire period and I don't imagine it has changed all that much. We even did the "behind the scenes" transportation tour one year. Walt himself had resolved to not repeat the limitations of Disneyland when the Florida parks were built. When you control everything in your "environment" you can do stuff that no one else can. Even their buses have private roads that skirt traffic problems when needed. My guess is that if they've got money in this Virgin game they already have their next moves planned well-ahead of the other participants. When the trains start rolling in that direction they won't be dropping passengers in the middle of nowhere.


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## jis

Willbridge said:


> Good points about convention/conference travel. A "discovery" that we made at OreDOT years ago is that typical transport studies just had a catch-all business trip purpose. In fact, conference/convention travelers do not behave in the stereotypical manner of road warriors, but most studies mashed them together.



Actually there are many different types of conferences and conventions. There are some that are indeed extended business meetings and others that are more of a vacation shindig in disguise of a conference, and everything in between. The attendees of the former type behave like road warriors. I know because I have been one of those all my professional life. The ones of the latter type behave more like vacationers. Though not that often, but have been one of those too.


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## Brian_tampa

jiml said:


> My guess is that if they've got money in this Virgin game they already have their next moves planned well-ahead of the other participants. When the trains start rolling in that direction they won't be dropping passengers in the middle of nowhere.


It is my opinion that Disney has been working at some level with Virgin Trains for quite some time now. Back in 2012-2014 when All Aboard Florida management had several ex-Disney people at the upper levels is probably when this Disney station idea was formed. That is my suspicion. Disney and FECI/AAF/Virgin Trains are similar in how they are run. Both keep things very close to the vest and both plan very, very well. If there is to be a station at Disney, you can be assured that most everything will have been thought out and designed for future expansion. Case in point is when I was told by a project engineer working for Virgin Trains that they (Virgin, and Disney also?) were considering special DMU type trainsets for Disney-MCO service. This is the type of planning I am talking about.

As far as location goes, unless Disney brings major $$$ to the table to move it closer to their parks, it will be close to the I-4 ROW. Where along I-4 depends on the negotiations with FDOT and CFX. At this point IMO, the most likely location would be near where the old HSR project had their Disney station where I-4 and SR417 meet. The old HSR project had the station in the median. However, with the future expansion of I-4 through that area, it could end up on Disney property adjacent to the I-4 ROW on the north side.


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## neroden

What I'm hearing is "Disney probably already has something fancier than a bus planned, but will keep it secret until shortly before it opens because that's their style". OK.


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## Anderson

neroden said:


> What I'm hearing is "Disney probably already has something fancier than a bus planned, but will keep it secret until shortly before it opens because that's their style". OK.


Even if it isn't until "shortly before it opens", it will probably be sorted out (and then announced) once the station location is selected. Now, what form it will take? Who knows?


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## jis

Also the station location would be darned obvious many months before it is opened unless a technique for instantaneous installation of station is perfected by then


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## Just-Thinking-51

Couple of notes:

Walt Disney world has a traffic problem. This is why they charge for parking, with the added benefit of captive audience/spending.

Disney is very good at use other people money for improvement, not there own.

Magic Kingdom express is a contractor bus from the airport to your resort hotel. It can carry luggage but a truck normally will drop off your bags directly to your room. The Disney (in-house) buses do not have any provisions for luggage.

There is no organized service from the Amtrak station. Take a city bus with luggage is no longer available. As you can’t access your Hotel bus at the TTC (Transportation Ticket Center) without going thur park security lines.

Bus are based out of multiple locations and have flexibility based on passenger waiting on where they go next.

After several years of about 300 buses, they are increasing drivers, and buses. About 350 at last check.

Bus only routes are showing up for several major choke points, more need however.

Brand new Star War themed hotel will be served by bus, even the shuttle to the park is a themed bus.

In recap Disney has traffic issues, if someone is will to pay and meet Disney requirements then you might get a train station serviced by buses, to your hotel, but expect it to by a contractor bus, not a Disney bus.


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## Anderson

As long as the "contractor bus" is being held to Disney's standards, I'd hold that it's still a "Disney bus". The difference is fundamentally who is cutting the paychecks.


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