# Rail in the Keys?



## KWBud (Nov 10, 2015)

Sometime in the distant past, an *unnamed* storm took out the railroad serving the Florida Keys. The rail bed and the bridges were purloined by a road project and most everyone assumed that railroading in the Keys would never return.

However there is some thought about bringing light rail back to the Keys. Hopefully if it is ever built, it will make a connection with the Amtrak station in Miami.

--

Bud


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## rrdude (Nov 10, 2015)

Great Idea. Would love to see it. But of all the things that *aren't* gonna happen in my lifetime, I'd say this is at the top.


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## Bob Dylan (Nov 10, 2015)

Gotta agree with rrdude! The chances of this happening are slim and none and slim has left town!


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## jis (Nov 10, 2015)

If it is ever built it will be something like the NJT River Line using DLRTs

Incidentally most of the old Flagler 7 Mile bridge is intact and probably can be repurposed for LRT use. Maybe even the old Bahia Honda Bridge can be refurbished for such use.

Traffic on Route 1 in the Keys is a complete nightmare. An ideal situation would be build such a light rail with relatively frequent service with stops on each island, and then place some enormous toll on private cars with exception for residents of the Keys. build a large parking lot station on the mainland allowing people to leave their cars long term for a low parking fee and transfer to the light rail to get to the islands in the Keys.

Building it grade separated would be extremely desirable but will probably be difficult to get environmental approval for.

Now only if we can get FECI interested in it


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## Ziv (Nov 10, 2015)

Getting to Key Largo wouldn't be all that expensive, but once you get past Islamorada I think it gets problematic due to the lack of RR bridges.

It is just as well, Key West is kind of touristy/fern bar'ish now so Key Largo is more fun for scuba and snorkeling, and food for that matter. ;-)

Seriously, though, I could have sworn I heard trains near Mrs. Mac's in Key Largo but I can't find a track on Google maps to save my life.

On edit: And looking at the map, just getting to Islamorada would be problematic as well. I think almost all the old RR bridges south of Key Largo are gone.


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## KWBud (Nov 10, 2015)

Ziv said:


> Getting to Key Largo wouldn't be all that expensive, but once you get past Islamorada I think it gets problematic due to the lack of RR bridges.
> 
> It is just as well, Key West is kind of touristy/fern bar'ish now so Key Largo is more fun for scuba and snorkeling, and food for that matter. ;-)
> 
> ...


Fern bars? Key West? We are a hard drinking town with a serious tourist problem :blush:

Anyhow, on topic, the article mentions monorail and I suspect that the system would have to be something like that. While a lot of the old grade (Old US1) is still there, it would be impractical to use it.



jis said:


> If it is ever built it will be something like the NJT River Line using DLRTs
> 
> Incidentally most of the old Flagler 7 Mile bridge is intact and probably can be repurposed for LRT use. Maybe even the old Bahia Honda Bridge can be refurbished for such use.
> 
> ...


Right now they are thinking of banning pedestrian traffic on the *Old 7* due to safety concerns. The old swing section is beyond repair and would cost a fortune to replace. There is a similar situation with the old Bahia Honda Bridge.

The bridges that are viable are being used for a bike trail or fishing piers. Fixing them might be viable, but a suspended monorail system is probably a better choice.

Neither one is likely to be done in any reasonable lifetime, though.

--

Bud


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## andersone (Nov 10, 2015)

If you would like a good read with a little history,, try Les Standifords "Last Train to Paradise" about Mr. Flagler's railroad


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## Eric308 (Nov 10, 2015)

KWBud said:


> Ziv said:
> 
> 
> > Getting to Key Largo wouldn't be all that expensive, but once you get past Islamorada I think it gets problematic due to the lack of RR bridges.
> ...


Yeah, right. The Green Parrot is a real fern bar. Henry Flagler was far ahead of his time, but we'll never see any kind of a RR, monorail, etc. I lived in kW in the 70's before I moved to Idaho like Hemingway. I and did a revisit last May. Lasted 2 days...really a changed place with the cruise ships coming in now. The place was expensive to live back then, but now service workers are commuting from as far as Big Pine as rent is so high and unavailable. Average house in Old Town is over a mil. I used to live at 1433 Reynolds St. right across from the below linked Casa Marina. Only thing open back then was the Bird Cage bar. I had 5 female roommates and my rent was $55 a month!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_Railroad

http://www.casamarinaresort.com/about-en.html


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## Ziv (Nov 10, 2015)

Not a bad link to a site describing the old Florida city to Key West RR.

http://www.abandonedrails.com/Florida_City_to_Key_West

Photos of the bridges below.

http://overseasrailroad.railfan.net/today.htm


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## chrsjrcj (Nov 11, 2015)

I doubt we'll ever see heavy rail in the Keys again. I'm a big fan of the monorail idea though.


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## Anderson (Nov 11, 2015)

While I'm not opposed to the idea of a monorail (the Keys are in a natural configuration for a transit line of some sort) I shudder at the idea not only of the cost of building the line but of what would be involved if another Cat4/5 storm decided to slam it.

One of the big problems is, frankly, the sheer length of such a route combined with a low total population. The mainland to Key West gets you about 115 miles of line (basically presuming that you ran the line from Key West to a massive parking lot at the water's edge); extending that up into Homestead gets you to 127 miles and Coral Gables around 150 miles. I think you could reasonably hope to connect to a Tri-Rail extension or other transit link and massive parking facility in Homestead[1]. So going with perhaps a generously low 125 miles of line Homestead-Key West (and likely at _least_ a 3-hour trip, though this seems likely to wind up being drive-time competitive the way US 1 is going)...uh, anyone want to guess what this thing would run per-mile? I'm getting costs in the $100-150m/mile range from c.2002 from a pro-light rail group but I'm also seeing some lower estimates from the Monorail Society (perhaps $50m/mile). For reference, IIRC Seattle's Monorail (Charlie can correct this if I'm off) was to run $2bn for 14 miles, for $142m/mile.

Slamming this down to what I suspect is the absolute low end ($50m/mile) you'd be looking at $6.25bn. Going with $100m/mile gets $12.5bn...and I suspect that's a better low-end estimate given that the whole thing would be bridges. At $142m/mile (in line with Seattle and by far the largest such system in the world) you'd be looking at $17.86bn. I'm suspecting that the maintenance bill would be a monster as well.

At the low end this project would be dubious IMHO; at the high end...all I can say is that of all the transit ideas I've seen to dump that sort of money into, this has to qualify as one of the worst. If I didn't know better I'd suspect USRail21 for coming up with it. You'd probably be better off buying a fleet of reasonably fast ferries to run frequent service from Miami to some of the key islands and then possibly beefing up bus service alongside that.

[1] SFRTA proposal for a Homestead line can be found here: http://www.sfrta.fl.gov/docs/planning/SFRTA-Miami-Dade-County-Rail-Opportunities_ver2.pdf


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## cirdan (Nov 11, 2015)

jis said:


> Building it grade separated would be extremely desirable but will probably be difficult to get environmental approval for.


Not if its a monorail. Then you just need to put in pillars and beams. Pillars can go into the sea when between islands and the old bridges are not considered usable, and when on land can be placed above the old rail alignment or above roads and so minimize effects on properties.

A monorail gliding from island to island above the sea could become an attraction in its own right.

Ideally it should go all the way to Miami to connect up with AAF. That way it might also pick up some commuter traffic in addition to the holiday and leisure traffic.


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## jis (Nov 11, 2015)

Environmental approval for elevated structures is the same whether it is monorail or bi-rail.

I don;t think this will happen, unless someone finds a way of making enough money out of some attached real estate project.


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## neroden (Nov 11, 2015)

Sea level rise:

http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/northamerica/unitedstates/florida/explore/the-11-billion-question-can-the-florida-keys-adapt-to-sea-level-rise.xml

The Keys are gonna be underwater reefs, mostly. Don't build anything to them.


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## cirdan (Nov 11, 2015)

neroden said:


> Sea level rise:
> 
> http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/northamerica/unitedstates/florida/explore/the-11-billion-question-can-the-florida-keys-adapt-to-sea-level-rise.xml
> 
> The Keys are gonna be underwater reefs, mostly. Don't build anything to them.


At some point, yes.

But what is the service life of such a system?


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## Mystic River Dragon (Nov 11, 2015)

I am of two minds about this. In theory, it sounds lovely. But I read _Last Train to Paradise,_ the book about the hurricane and the train disaster, and it was one of the saddest things I ever read.

I know we have better weather warnings and safety systems today, but I'm still not sure that Mother Nature couldn't cause havoc somehow.


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## KWBud (Nov 11, 2015)

Mystic River Dragon said:


> I am of two minds about this. In theory, it sounds lovely. But I read _Last Train to Paradise,_ the book about the hurricane and the train disaster, and it was one of the saddest things I ever read.
> 
> I know we have better weather warnings and safety systems today, but I'm still not sure that Mother Nature couldn't cause havoc somehow.


With satellites, we will probably always have sufficient warning on hurricanes. Whether we prepare or not is a different story. We had plenty of warning for Wilma and were still not prepared. However we won't have much warning when the Megatsunami hits :wacko:

Anyhow, think of the tourist attraction that a monorail could become. There are three areas where the clearance must be 65+ Ft. (Jewfish Creek, Channel 5, and Mosher Channel) and two that need 40+ Ft. (Snake Creek and Niles Channel) and the views from there would be astounding.

But the monorail need not follow the islands chain exactly. The existing tie line goes over the back country in places and a monorail could do so also.

We could have day tripper tourists come in by the trainload and become the fern bar capitol of the Western Hemisphere. :giggle:

--

Bud


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## Bob Dylan (Nov 11, 2015)

KYBud: As the old saying goes, "Be careful what you ask for, you might just get it!"

The Cruise ship crowds should be enough of the fern bar and shopping types to go along with the vehicle traffic.

The old Key West, as has been said, is already gone!


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## KWBud (Nov 11, 2015)

KYBud: As the old saying goes, "Be careful what you ask for, you might just get it!"

The Cruise ship crowds should be enough of the fern bar and shopping types to go along with the vehicle traffic.

The old Key West, as has been said, is already gone!


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## MattW (Nov 11, 2015)

Any sea level rise won't happen for hundreds if not thousands of years, let's worry about the here and now first.


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## neroden (Nov 12, 2015)

MattW said:


> Any sea level rise won't happen for hundreds if not thousands of years, let's worry about the here and now first.


This is factually incorrect. Sea level rise is already happening, it's already measured in inches, it's already flooding the sewer systems in south Florida (which has porous ground), and it will be quite significant within the next 50 years. Do your research before shooting your mouth off.

I'm pretty safe up here near the Great Lakes. You're safe in inland Georgia. New York City can build seawalls. By contrast, South Florida, which is nearly flat, at sea level, and has porous bedrock (so seawalls are worthless), is in huge, huge, huge trouble. The Keys are toast. (Other areas which are toast include Galveston, which is built on a sandbar, and unfortunately most of the nation of Bangladesh.)


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## KWBud (Nov 12, 2015)

neroden said:


> MattW said:
> 
> 
> > Any sea level rise won't happen for hundreds if not thousands of years, let's worry about the here and now first.
> ...


The actual sea level rise in Key West is about 9 inches per century, but in Galveston it is over 2 feet per century. In Alaska, the sea level is actually falling by over 5 feet per century. That said eustatic sea level in geologically stable areas does actually show a rise of about 8 inches per century.

Duval Street does actually flood on astronomical high tides, but it has always been that way, even before they paved the street. The only reason we are more aware of it is due to the media hype.

But, my motto is, "Never let the truth stand in the way of a good story."

--

Bud


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## Ryan (Nov 13, 2015)

How does that saying go? Something like "past performance does not indicate future results"?

The historical rate of change matters far less than what the rate will be over the next century, and in the Keys it's going to be a bit more than just 9 inches.


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## cirdan (Nov 13, 2015)

Ryan said:


> How does that saying go? Something like "past performance does not indicate future results"?
> 
> The historical rate of change matters far less than what the rate will be over the next century, and in the Keys it's going to be a bit more than just 9 inches.


It's probably true that the sea level is rising, but how far does it need to rise until the Keys become uninhabitable, and how long will that take? I don't think we will see those islands abandoned in our lifetimes.

Monorail systems or indeed light rail don't last for ever. So The question is, if we start planning now, will we need to wrtite off much value when doomsday comes? I don't think so.

Remember that encouraging people to move to public transit actually mitigates global warming. Defeatism isn't always the best strategy.


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## dlagrua (Nov 13, 2015)

. The FEC railroad can be creditied for populating and developing the islands of the keys but Henry Flagler envisioned Key West as a coal loading/refueling stop for the ships of the day (that ran on coal) . The railroad was not constructed to derive its revenue from only passenger service. As steamships evolved to run on fuel oil, the coal business that the railroad envisoned never materialized and the route was never profitable. Even if a light rail provision was added to the existing causeway, I do not believe passenger service can ever pay for the cost to re-establish the railroad route to the keys. In-season vacation travel on the causeways can be brutal but an investment in rail service most likely won't happen.


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## Anderson (Nov 13, 2015)

dlagrua said:


> . The FEC railroad can be creditied for populating and developing the islands of the keys but Henry Flagler envisioned Key West as a coal loading/refueling stop for the ships of the day (that ran on coal) . The railroad was not constructed to derive its revenue from only passenger service. As steamships evolved to run on fuel oil, the coal business that the railroad envisoned never materialized and the route was never profitable. Even if a light rail provision was added to the existing causeway, I do not believe passenger service can ever pay for the cost to re-establish the railroad route to the keys. In-season vacation travel on the causeways can be brutal but an investment in rail service most likely won't happen.


That's why I was suggesting some sort of ferry-based transit system. That might run a couple hundred million dollars and need a subsidy, but you could take a _lot_ of traffic off of US1 with a multiple-daily ferry route down there (with a bonus if you can link it to AAF, Amtrak, and Metrorail in Miami).


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## KWBud (Nov 13, 2015)

Ryan said:


> How does that saying go? Something like "past performance does not indicate future results"?
> 
> The historical rate of change matters far less than what the rate will be over the next century, and in the Keys it's going to be a bit more than just 9 inches.


9.0001 inches? 90 Feet?

The nicest thing about predicting eustatic sea level, climate or any other long term trend is that you will never be called on it if your prediction is incorrect. So, it's easy to make such predictions with all the confidence in the world.

Just a side note; virtually all of the scholarly articles predicting a tens (or more) foot rise in eustatic sea level almost always have a thermal expansion component that defies physics. Sure if the water column were to gain a few degrees of temperature, then there would be a corresponding volume increase. But even in a runaway greenhouse scenario, the oceans wouldn't be able to absorb that much heat as quickly as they say.



dlagrua said:


> . The FEC railroad can be creditied for populating and developing the islands of the keys but Henry Flagler envisioned Key West as a coal loading/refueling stop for the ships of the day (that ran on coal) . The railroad was not constructed to derive its revenue from only passenger service. As steamships evolved to run on fuel oil, the coal business that the railroad envisoned never materialized and the route was never profitable. Even if a light rail provision was added to the existing causeway, I do not believe passenger service can ever pay for the cost to re-establish the railroad route to the keys. In-season vacation travel on the causeways can be brutal but an investment in rail service most likely won't happen.


Only 50 miles from Key West, Knight's Key Dock served as a commercial transfer facility that serviced ocean going ships, so there was no need to extend the railroad further west than that point.

We already have ferry service and it doesn't impact the use of the Overseas Highway by much. And there are multiple days that the ferry can't run due to weather. On the other hand, a rail system could be used by locals as well as tourists and have a dramatic effect on the culture of the Keys.

But, the naysayers are correct. Heather may get enough support on the commission to ask for an analysis by the state, but nothing will ever come of it.

--

Bud


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## Acela944 (Nov 13, 2015)

Hahah! That's funny that you actually posted that! I'm not active on these forums and I looked at the old Key West bridge and I thought to myself, "Amtrak should buy this and service a P42dc with 5 comet/horizon rolling stocks to Key West."

So I literally came back here to make a thread but it seems you've already have. I totally support the idea! I love Key West and I've always wanted to take a train there.

I totally do hope Amtrak will invest in such a thing in my lifetime, that would be REALLY awesome!


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## neroden (Nov 15, 2015)

I'm not responding to the denialist rhetoric from the anti-science lunatic.

A ferry system is a good idea. No major sunk costs when individual islands flood or the next hurricane comes through -- you can always send the ferry to somewhere else!


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## Ryan (Nov 15, 2015)

neroden said:


> sunk costs


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## cirdan (Nov 16, 2015)

dlagrua said:


> . The FEC railroad can be creditied for populating and developing the islands of the keys but Henry Flagler envisioned Key West as a coal loading/refueling stop for the ships of the day (that ran on coal) . The railroad was not constructed to derive its revenue from only passenger service. As steamships evolved to run on fuel oil, the coal business that the railroad envisoned never materialized and the route was never profitable.


That doesn't sound like a very profitable business strategy to me.

As far as I know these days coal by large ship is way cheaper than coal by rail, so unless things have changed massively in the meantime, this wasn't a good business strategy even then.


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## Anderson (Nov 16, 2015)

cirdan said:


> dlagrua said:
> 
> 
> > . The FEC railroad can be creditied for populating and developing the islands of the keys but Henry Flagler envisioned Key West as a coal loading/refueling stop for the ships of the day (that ran on coal) . The railroad was not constructed to derive its revenue from only passenger service. As steamships evolved to run on fuel oil, the coal business that the railroad envisoned never materialized and the route was never profitable.
> ...


IIRC, the issue was that for certain types of ships in use at the time, Key West was well-placed for a coaling station due to the ships' range on a single load of coal. That was the 1890s. By the 1910s, when the line was finished, the ships' range had grown.

For a parallel, look up Montreal Mirabel Airport: Its existence was functionally predicated on the fact that most airliners couldn't make a flight from Toronto to Europe so they had to stop and refuel (and Montreal ended up being the stop in question, swamping Trudeau) and/or pax had to fly to Montreal and transfer (Montreal being the easternmost major airport in Canada and there was a Wright Amendment-worthy rule in place, too, from what I can tell). Right after Mirabel was built, a new wave of long-haul jets (I believe most importantly including a new edition of the 747) came out, allowing planes to skip the Montreal stop and pax to fly straight through. Mirabel was also horridly inconvenient to Montreal, resulting in a traffic collapse to/from Montreal as the government tried to "force" the airport.


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## KWBud (Nov 16, 2015)

neroden said:


> I'm not responding to the denialist rhetoric from the anti-science lunatic.
> 
> A ferry system is a good idea. No major sunk costs when individual islands flood or the next hurricane comes through -- you can always send the ferry to somewhere else!


I don't know whether you are referring to me or not, but I base my observations on science, not media hype. And while past performance does not guarantee future results, it is the baseline that we use to compare trends. I doubt that any of the islands in the Keys will be abandoned due to seal level rise in my lifetime. However I don't expect to be around in 2115, either.

The Keys already has ferry service and it does not substantially reduce the traffic on the Overseas Highway, so why would another ferry be substantially different?

If the County Commission does ask the state to look into any kind of rail service, it will have to include commuter rail servicing the islands chain in addition to a link to Miami. Ferries can't access many of the islands due to shallow water, so a commuter ferry system would be totally impractical.

Sometime later this week, I will have a chance to look at the proposal and make notes. If possible, I may be able to put some information on-line or provide a link to an existing Web site.

--

Bud


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## Anderson (Nov 17, 2015)

KWBud,

From what I can tell the only ferry service is to/from Ft. Myers (I'm not considering the Dry Tortugas ferry service in this equation. There's nothing going towards Miami that I can find (I'm not counting cruise ships that need to make an out-of-US stop in this), and that is where a _lot_ of people are coming in from. Arguably the Ft. Myers ferry is catering to a separate market that would otherwise be stuck either going the "long way around" via Miami or flying in from SW Florida. Something like that (probably 2-3x daily at a minimum), either "express" from Miami or with several intermediate stops, is what I think we have in mind.

Please give me any info you have on other (regularly-scheduled) service in the region.


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## KWBud (Nov 17, 2015)

Anderson said:


> KWBud,
> 
> From what I can tell the only ferry service is to/from Ft. Myers (I'm not considering the Dry Tortugas ferry service in this equation. There's nothing going towards Miami that I can find (I'm not counting cruise ships that need to make an out-of-US stop in this), and that is where a _lot_ of people are coming in from. Arguably the Ft. Myers ferry is catering to a separate market that would otherwise be stuck either going the "long way around" via Miami or flying in from SW Florida. Something like that (probably 2-3x daily at a minimum), either "express" from Miami or with several intermediate stops, is what I think we have in mind.
> 
> Please give me any info you have on other (regularly-scheduled) service in the region.


While I can't dispute the facts, I have a much different take on the overall situation. By the way, there is another itinerant ferry that does come in occasionally, but it isn't a big factor in the overall picture.

We have the ferry terminal and it could be used for service to anywhere including Cuba, Miami or even the Bahamas. The city has been shopping for customers and giving away sweetheart deals. That's why the Dry Tortugas Ferry moved from its old dock to the Ferry Terminal.

So, if there were a market, the city would like to help make that kind of service work. There have been proposals but nothing comes of it, so my guess is that the market just isn't there.

Probably the only reason that the West Coast ferry works is because it does indeed cut out a lot of distance by going a direct route rather than having to go to Miami and then down the islands chain.

Additionally we have a large number of tour buses that make daily trips from Miami that do indeed take a lot of the traffic off the Overseas Highway.

However, much of the traffic along the road is commuter traffic. Many people live up the Keys and travel to Key West to work or do business. If that load were substantially reduced it would cure a lot of the issues we have with the highway.

Moreover an express train that served Homestead, Marathon and Key West would make that daily commute feasible. In addition to reducing traffic along US1, other beneficial effects would include reduced rents for the labor force and less dependence on the Overseas Highway as our sole transportation corridor. When we lose just one bridge (as has happened numerous times in the past) we are totally cut off from the mainland.

Other issue with using ferries as commuter transportation include access and susceptibility to weather. Many of the population centers just don't have deep water access that a ferry needs. Winter storms and even summer squalls can create weather severe enough that the ferries just can't operate.

But like a lot of issues, politics plays a big role in the process. It will be very difficult to even get an unbiased feasibility study from the state that reflects how a rail system really fits into the big picture. We can guess what might work, but without hard facts, it will be like arguing about how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.

--

Bud


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## cirdan (Nov 17, 2015)

Anderson said:


> IIRC, the issue was that for certain types of ships in use at the time, Key West was well-placed for a coaling station due to the ships' range on a single load of coal. That was the 1890s. By the 1910s, when the line was finished, the ships' range had grown.


Ok, but my point was rather, did the coal really need to be delivered there by train.

A large coal ship could come in say once a week and restock the Key West supplies. That would probably be way cheaper than building, maintaning and operating a fragile rail link, while still fulfilling the objective of using Key West as a refuelling point.


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## jis (Nov 17, 2015)

Coal was not the only reason for building the railroad though. But it being present it made sense to deliver the Coal using it.


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## KWBud (Nov 17, 2015)

jis said:


> Coal was not the only reason for building the railroad though. But it being present it made sense to delvier the Coal using it.


According to our local historian, it made good business sense to build the original railroad. Key West was the third largest city in Florida at the time. Shipping goods by rail was cheaper than by ship. Key West already had good trade with Cuba, so that connection was already in place. He says that Flagler knew about plans for the Panama Canal that would open trade with the Pacific.

Also according to the historian, Flagler liked Key West.

However as has been pointed out here, the dynamics of trade changed and the railroad became less important. The unnamed storm that struck the Keys in 1935 dealt the fatal blow to the Key West extension.

However the situation is always in flux and whether rail in the Keys might be viable in the 2020s and beyond is what needs to be considered.

--

Bud


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## CHamilton (Nov 18, 2015)

Monroe Commissioners Ask State To Look Into Monorail


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## neroden (Nov 22, 2015)

Oy. Monorail. The sign of people who haven't done their research.

The entire Florida Keys population, according to Google, is under 80,000. Smaller than the Ithaca, NY metro area.

If the people in Key West wish to spend their local tax dollars on a railroad, monorail, or whatever, they should feel free.

This is such a low-population area that absolutely no state or federal money should go to a railroad in this area.


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## jis (Nov 23, 2015)

While I think building a rail transport o any sort may be a bit over the top, the problem in the Keys is not its population, but the large number of visitors. They might have to increase road capacity anyway one of these days, they appear to be so jammed. At which point considering some sort of light rail may not be all that bad an idea. Whether we like it or not federal money will be spent in the near future to add capacity to US Rt 1 in the Keys irrespective of what the population is or is not.


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## neroden (Nov 23, 2015)

About 4.5 million per year, up from 3.2 million in 2007 -- that is an odd little boomlet in tourism.

http://www.keywestchamber.org/demographics--economy.html

I can't believe that that growth rate is stable. Must be a fad.

I guess that's enough to support a train, if you get at least 10% of the non-cruise-ship visitors to take it. I think the train would have to run all the way from Miami.


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## KWBud (Nov 24, 2015)

Oy. Denialist rhetoric from the anti-transportation fringe?

A sure sign that some people haven't done their research.

Most people agree that our nation was built on transportation.

In the early years, the New York State Barge Canal created a cheap transportation link between the Midwest and the Hudson River and was the impetus for making New York City a major transportation hub. Wasn't New York City was the world's largest city at one time?

The rail link between the East and West coast provided another inexpensive link for goods and people to travel across the country. The infrastructure for the Golden Age of Rail was in part subsidized by state and federal funds.

A more recent example is the Interstate Highway System, the basis of our modern transportation infrastructure. Likewise air transportation is paid for with the help of government at all levels.

I'd be surprised if any small town in upstate New York turned away all state or federal funding for transportation projects. On the other hand, there are 25 wineries and only one university so I suppose anything is possible  [1]

Here in the Keys we have many visitors from all over the planet. Our largest event brings in upwards of 100,000 visitors to the Keys during the final weekend. Since that event occurs during Hurricane Season, getting everyone out could be problematic with only one road. [2] One bad accident during the rush to leave could make the road impassable for many hours.

The point is that people from everywhere, not just the Keys, benefit from having good transportation systems.

Of course, not all transportation projects are practical or beneficial in the long run. So, a study is a good idea, in my opinion.

In any event, the transportation denialists have lost the first round and the study will go forward using state, and probably federal, funding. The next step is to try to ensure that the study looks at the big picture. If that happens, only then can we have a serious discussion about the costs and benefits of a rail system.

--

Bud

[1] This is meant to be a joke, please note the old fashion smiley.

[2] This is no joke, folks. We're very vulnerable down here.


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## jis (Nov 24, 2015)

KWBud, I agree with you sentiment....


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## Bob Dylan (Nov 24, 2015)

Ditto, well said!


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## neroden (Nov 26, 2015)

I really had not looked recently at the ludicrously high numbers of visitors to the Keys. The numbers have jumped massively in the last two decades.

This probably is enough to support robust train service now, in contrast to the numbers of 10 or 20 years ago. I do question how stable that sharp rise is; tourists can be fickle. A train to Miami would certainly help stabilize the tourism market though, so I would expect the local governments would be very ready to put in their own money.


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## BCL (Nov 26, 2015)

neroden said:


> I really had not looked recently at the ludicrously high numbers of visitors to the Keys. The numbers have jumped massively in the last two decades.
> 
> This probably is enough to support robust train service now, in contrast to the numbers of 10 or 20 years ago. I do question how stable that sharp rise is; tourists can be fickle. A train to Miami would certainly help stabilize the tourism market though, so I would expect the local governments would be very ready to put in their own money.


Don't they deal with peak visitation in the winter months? I would imagine that the incentive to take a train would be lower in the summer months when there are fewer tourists and easier traffic.


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## jis (Nov 26, 2015)

All I can say is traffic on RT 1 is quite horrible on summer weekends too. Don't know about weekdays since I have not taken the trouble to do the 6-7 hours drive from where I live on weekdays.


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## BCL (Nov 26, 2015)

jis said:


> All I can say is traffic on RT 1 is quite horrible on summer weekends too. Don't know about weekdays since I have not taken the trouble to do the 6-7 hours drive from where I live on weekdays.


My only experience was on a summer weekday after a storm had ripped through Florida and scared away all the tourists. It was actually tropical storm strength going through, but with "mandatory" evacuation orders for nonresidents in the Keys. In the end the storm barely registered a mark, but they lost a lot of tourism dollars.
I had to change my plans in Miami, but decided to go south that day. I got to one of those private visitor centers and was debating whether to go to the Everglades or Key West. Everglades NP was going to reopen that day at noon, but the employee there talked me into going to Key West since they could use one more tourist.

When I got there I found it pretty easy to get around. No traffic to speak of. I had a burger and beer on Duval Street and all was right with the world.


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## cirdan (Nov 27, 2015)

Thanks to all those who have put forward their well informed views. I'm sure there are crazier and remoter places on the planet that have rail connections so in principle I can see this working. But what is rerally needed before this can go any further is a solid business case. What's it going to cost? What are the expected revenues? Where is the difference going to come from?

We have seen some projects making real progress recently that maybe 10 years ago we would have scoffed as fantasist dreaming. AAF, Texas High Speed rail, X-train, High Speed in California. So I don't like to bounce the word impossible.


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## neroden (Nov 27, 2015)

Operations planning would be a bit bizarre, because demand would be *entirely* from tourists. It might call for entirely different schedules than a normal train line, along with outright cancellations during periods of low tourism.


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## BCL (Nov 27, 2015)

cirdan said:


> Thanks to all those who have put forward their well informed views. I'm sure there are crazier and remoter places on the planet that have rail connections so in principle I can see this working. But what is rerally needed before this can go any further is a solid business case. What's it going to cost? What are the expected revenues? Where is the difference going to come from?
> 
> We have seen some projects making real progress recently that maybe 10 years ago we would have scoffed as fantasist dreaming. AAF, Texas High Speed rail, X-train, High Speed in California. So I don't like to bounce the word impossible.


It would require a solid business and/or public interest case. And the amount of building (over water) that would be required as well as establishing right of way on limited land would cost way too much given how many would be served.

Of course we can see lots of similar projects that were essential vanity projects built by entities flush with cash or easy borrowing. I'd say that the projects you state have more of a public interest case going for them.


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## neroden (Nov 28, 2015)

As I say, the benefit here is mainly to the tourism bureau of the Keys. If they want to fund most of it, bully for them! I can't see moving tourists to the Keys as a national priority, however.


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## trainviews (Nov 29, 2015)

neroden said:


> As I say, the benefit here is mainly to the tourism bureau of the Keys. If they want to fund most of it, bully for them! I can't see moving tourists to the Keys as a national priority, however.


And Amtrak is only for land cruise passengers...

Honestly if there's a transportation need to the Keys and rail is a feasible solution I think the distinction between different classes of passengers is false. Tourists are as stuck in traffic no less than businessmen or students on their way home from college, and their mobility generate economic activity just like commuters or business traffic.

Now, whether the enormous investment a rail line to the Keys would be is warranted or not? I highly doubt that, but that has in my opinion nothing to do with whether the audience is the "wrong" kind of travellers or not.

Edit: Typo


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## BCL (Nov 29, 2015)

trainviews said:


> neroden said:
> 
> 
> > As I say, the benefit here is mainly to the tourism bureau of the Keys. If they want to fund most of it, bully for them! I can't see moving tourists to the Keys as a national priority, however.
> ...


I suppose the answer is a matter of what the goal is. As stated earlier, the original rail line down the Keys was meant to supply coal for ship refueling. The road is already there and of course it serves both civilians and military needs.

Certainly there's a rational basis for an overland light rail line in a highly populated area. It's a different matter when it's a relatively low number of tourists and locals where it would require new bridges and likely condemnation of expensive and limited land. There's also a question of whether or not tourists would use it as opposed to perhaps bus shuttles.

I guess sometimes there's spending because money is available for a specific purpose. Maybe they can get funding. A bridge to Ketchikan Airport almost got built. Somehow a new airport connector was built around here for almost a half billion dollars even though its annual maintenance costs were more than the annual cost of the bus connector that it replaced.


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## jis (Nov 29, 2015)

Where is "here"?


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## BCL (Nov 29, 2015)

jis said:


> Where is "here"?


My here or someone else's here. I was referring to the new Oakland Airport connector to BART.


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## jis (Nov 29, 2015)

You here. Thanks.


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## BCL (Nov 29, 2015)

jis said:


> You here. Thanks.


I also referred to the proposed Gravina Island Bridge to Ketchikan Airport. That was the famous "Bridge to Nowhere". Apparently even after it got scrapped, they went ahead with a highway to connect to the nonexistent bridge. They had $26 million in federal funds appropriated. I suppose it did provide some construction jobs.


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## cirdan (Nov 30, 2015)

neroden said:


> Operations planning would be a bit bizarre, because demand would be *entirely* from tourists. It might call for entirely different schedules than a normal train line, along with outright cancellations during periods of low tourism.


It wouldn't be the only railroad in the world to live entireyl off tourists.

There are quite a few lines like that in Switzerland for example, and if you visit them off season you get a totally picture (and schedule).

In the Uk and Sweden there are lines that shut down totally off season, with the permanent staff being redeployed on maintenance work in preparation for the next season.


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## cirdan (Nov 30, 2015)

BCL said:


> Certainly there's a rational basis for an overland light rail line in a highly populated area. It's a different matter when it's a relatively low number of tourists and locals where it would require new bridges and likely condemnation of expensive and limited land. There's also a question of whether or not tourists would use it as opposed to perhaps bus shuttles.


A bus shuttle would probably be almost just as effective if it could be rendered immune to congestion. And this is the big if. Getting there would require construction of busways and ultimately land seizure and thus construction costs wouldn't be significantly lower than the rail equivalent.


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## Palmetto (Nov 30, 2015)

Buses already ply the route, but it's a pain in the butt from Miami Airport or the future MiamiCentral. You have to take Metrorail to its southern terminus at Dadeland, transfer to a bus to Homestead, then transfer to another MiamiDade bus that gets you only to Marathon, I think it is. Then, it's another transfer to go the rest of the way. That's doing it on the cheap.

Greyhound has 2 trips a day from Miami International to Key West. That seems to cover it.


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## BCL (Nov 30, 2015)

cirdan said:


> BCL said:
> 
> 
> > Certainly there's a rational basis for an overland light rail line in a highly populated area. It's a different matter when it's a relatively low number of tourists and locals where it would require new bridges and likely condemnation of expensive and limited land. There's also a question of whether or not tourists would use it as opposed to perhaps bus shuttles.
> ...


I was thinking in terms of something like a cruise transfer or public buses and not necessarily a public transit line. It was noted that Greyhound already services the area.


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## MARC Rider (Dec 3, 2015)

Palmetto said:


> Buses already ply the route, but it's a pain in the butt from Miami Airport or the future MiamiCentral. You have to take Metrorail to its southern terminus at Dadeland, transfer to a bus to Homestead, then transfer to another MiamiDade bus that gets you only to Marathon, I think it is. Then, it's another transfer to go the rest of the way. That's doing it on the cheap.
> 
> Greyhound has 2 trips a day from Miami International to Key West. That seems to cover it.


A number of tour operators also run day trips. That's how we visited. The bus picks you up at your hotel in Miami or Miami Beach at the crack of dawn, you get down to Key West at about 11, and you do your thing until the bus comes back at 5. Return to Miami after 9 PM. If you want, they'll drop you off for a couple of days, and they'll pick you up on a later day. Of course, no intermediate stops, so the service is no good if you want to go to Key Largo or Marathon, or whatever.


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