# Opening of the Tide was great success



## jb64 (Aug 20, 2011)

Link is here

Nice to see the enthusiasm.


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## The Davy Crockett (Aug 20, 2011)

Great to hear it was so warmly recieved, and that the 50 anti-expansion protesters were such a tiny minority. I've not been following the project closely but am curious why the protest. Are they anti-tax, NIMBYs, pro-automobile, or ????

I hope light rail returns to Northern Virginia within my lifetime! There are plans on the books in Arlington and Alexandria, but no shovels have been employed yet.


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## afigg (Aug 20, 2011)

Link to local newspaper coverage of the opening day with a bunch of photos: http://hamptonroads.com/2011/08/passengers-board-light-rail-officially-begins-norfolk Nice looking LRT system.

One of the interesting aspects of the new LRT line in Norfolk is that Virginia has provided $87 million of state funding to extend Amtrak service to Norfolk, starting sometime in 2013. The Amtrak station will be located at or near the The Tide Harbor Park station, so the Tide LRT will provide connecting service to Amtrak and the NEC in several years which is pretty impressive for the first LRT in Virginia.

The Amtrak trains will be Northeast Regionals extended south of the Richmond Staples Mill Road station on the route west of Richmond, then heading the NS line south of Richmond on a connecting track currently under construction, and south of the James River to Norfolk. The route from Staples Mill Road to the Richmond Main Street Station and south across the river is painfully slow and needs $400 million and up to upgrade, so Virginia is bypassing it for the present until/if that route can get upgraded as part of the Southeast HSR corridor. The Virginia plans are to start with one daily train and then eventually expand it to 3 daily NE Regional trains heading north to DC, NYC, and maybe Boston.

As for the protesters, I gather from the newspaper articles they are mostly an anti-rail crowd who see local rail service as a waste of money and would allow the riff-raff to travel to Virginia Beach if the line were to be extended there.


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## The Davy Crockett (Feb 19, 2012)

The Virginia Pilot is reporting that The Tide has greatly exceeded ridership projections in its first six months of operations. It was forecast that, on average, there would be 2.900 riders on weekdays, but has actually averaged 4,600 passengers. It is now being said that the 20 year ridership projections of 7,200 weekday trips will be achieved in less than three years! :excl:

As has been observed here about other new systems: Build it and they will ride!


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## jb64 (Feb 19, 2012)

I read the recent article, too. It is here if anyone would like to read it. Far fewer negative comments than when it first opened, I noticed, too. Now it will be interesting to see if Virginia Beach extends it to the resort area.


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## Anderson (Feb 19, 2012)

The Davy Crockett said:


> The Virginia Pilot is reporting that The Tide has greatly exceeded ridership projections in its first six months of operations. It was forecast that, on average, there would be 2.900 riders on weekdays, but has actually averaged 4,600 passengers. It is now being said that the 20 year ridership projections of 7,200 weekday trips will be achieved in less than three years! :excl:
> 
> As has been observed here about other new systems: Build it and they will ride!


I'm going to respectfully hazard that part of the success of The Tide is sustained high gas prices...but part is also low estimates. Mind you, additional/extended lines would produce more ridership...but the big thing with a line into Downtown Norfolk is that _nobody_ likes dealing with I-264 anywhere _near_ rush hour. I think the estimate here was just too low to start with given the long history of daily traffic jams on 264.


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## AlanB (Feb 20, 2012)

Anderson said:


> The Davy Crockett said:
> 
> 
> > The Virginia Pilot is reporting that The Tide has greatly exceeded ridership projections in its first six months of operations. It was forecast that, on average, there would be 2.900 riders on weekdays, but has actually averaged 4,600 passengers. It is now being said that the 20 year ridership projections of 7,200 weekday trips will be achieved in less than three years! :excl:
> ...


The original estimate was higher and HRT dropped the number a year or two before opening. Something that has led some critics to cry that they overstated ridership in order to win Federal funding and others to cry that it was done so that no matter what happened it would be considered a success. And some critics will flop in whichever direction suits them at the moment.

I'm not real sure just why HRT dropped the estimate, but it wasn't a smart move on their part whatever the reason.

That said, for a system only six months old, it is still doing very good when compared to where it is supposed to be in terms of ridership in 20 years.


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## Anderson (Feb 20, 2012)

AlanB said:


> Anderson said:
> 
> 
> > The Davy Crockett said:
> ...


Hmm...my best guess, in light of that, is that _both_ criticisms are correct to some extent. I will readily agree that it is doing well compared to 20-year-out estimates (were these reduced as well?), but as much as I hate to say it...a 20-year estimate on anything is generally going to be complete and utter voodoo (I can get the rough 7200 ridership number by simply assuming 5% growth from the 2900 baseline...that generates a hair over 7300 for the 20th year). Witness Amtrak's 5-year projections, many of which don't bother to take into account even planned fare policies (such as the sharp fare hikes over the last year or so).

This isn't to disparage solid performance, which the route clearly has, and it _certainly_ shouldn't discourage expanding the network (network effect being what it is, longer lines should drive more traffic into the system, even if transfers of some kind are required at some point in the system...lines out to NAS Oceania and up to Norfolk Naval Station/NIT would fall in this particular vein (especially since the latter would hit ODU on the way, giving you two major employers who would be served, and there's _probably_ room to drop a line in there in the vein of a streetcar if you're willing to give the rail system dominance in traffic signaling and cut a lane or two out of the middle of Hampton Blvd.).


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