# Hurricane Irma and Amtrak



## gabbygrrl (Sep 3, 2017)

Let me start by saying that I know nothing is certain for this storm. I am just trying to decide on a back-up plan for a booked flight from Bos to Mia.

IF Irma tracks towards the Carolinas, would Amtrak still operate the Silver Meteor? Or do they cancel service with heavy winds/rain (assuming Irma is off the coast and not making landfall, of course).

Also would we be better iby booking the Star to Florida, since it runs more inland than the Meteor?

If our flight looks like it might get cxld or air travel is going to be a nightmare, we are either going to book the train (we are already booked on the train for our return) or we'll rent a car and drive-talking a long, round about route to avoid the weather as much as palossible.

I'm not panicking, I'm trying to be prepared. Getting knowledge so that I'm ready for whatever Mother Nature brings.

TYIA for your suggestions/help!


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## jis (Sep 3, 2017)

If there is a hurricane affected area en route, and the end points are unaffected, then a non stop flight is more likely to fly than any form of ground transport making it through the hurricane affected area.


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## Blackwolf (Sep 3, 2017)

My advice is to have multiple back-up contingency plans for any travel to/through/from an area affected by this storm. This includes plans to completely cancel a trip. Me and Mrs. Blackwolf are scheduled to visit New York City with an arrival on 9/12. You better bet I'm watching this sucker pretty darn closely!

If it looks like things are going to get hit, I'm prepared to pull the plug and let my Chase Sapphire card duke it out with Amtrak/Hilton/JetBlue on getting full refunds on all expenses (which they'll do, even for non-refundable fares, in cases such as this.)


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 3, 2017)

gabbygrrl said:


> IF Irma tracks towards the Carolinas, would Amtrak still operate the Silver Meteor?


It depends on the severity of the storm verses the strength/weakness of the local infrastructure. Except for the NEC it would be the host freight railroad taking the lead on which trains travel where and when rather than Amtrak.



gabbygrrl said:


> Or do they cancel service with heavy winds/rain (assuming Irma is off the coast and not making landfall, of course).


Heavy rain or wind alone is unlikely to stop a train completely. However, severe weather can slow trains down and flash flooding can take out bridges and berms and tornadoes can knock trains over.



gabbygrrl said:


> Also would we be better iby booking the Star to Florida, since it runs more inland than the Meteor?


Switching between the Meteor and the Star is a small deviation relative to the size of a hurricane. Also, hurricanes can create erratic weather patterns that are hard to anticipate. For instance, one year a hurricane was heading straight for Corpus Christi. City and state officials reviewed the anticipated path and strength of the storm and then asked everyone in Corpus to get out of town and head further inland to cities like San Antonio. This decision created massive traffic jams and the cost of hotels and gasoline skyrocketed as unusually scarce resources resulted in extreme pricing levels. Then when the hurricane finally arrived Corpus Christi was spared of any serious damage while San Antonio suffered severe flooding, multiple tornadoes, extended power outages and weather related fires.



gabbygrrl said:


> I'm not panicking, I'm trying to be prepared. Getting knowledge so that I'm ready for whatever Mother Nature brings.


You may not be panicking but you are asking crystal ball style questions. None of us knows where the storm is going or how strong it will be when it gets there. If you were asking about a blizzard I'd probably put a train above a plane, but in the case of a hurricane it's anyone's guess which form of transit will impacted the most. Just depends on what gets hit and how hard.


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## JayPea (Sep 3, 2017)

Blackwolf said:


> My advice is to have multiple back-up contingency plans for any travel to/through/from an area affected by this storm. This includes plans to completely cancel a trip. Me and Mrs. Blackwolf are scheduled to visit New York City with an arrival on 9/12. You better bet I'm watching this sucker pretty darn closely!
> 
> If it looks like things are going to get hit, I'm prepared to pull the plug and let my Chase Sapphire card duke it out with Amtrak/Hilton/JetBlue on getting full refunds on all expenses (which they'll do, even for non-refundable fares, in cases such as this.)


You and me both when it comes to "watching this sucker pretty darn closely". I am scheduled to fly into BWI from Spokane a week from today, take the Vermonter to St. Albans Monday, a Northeast Regional on Tuesday to Boston,the Downeaster to Portland on Wednesday, and the LSL to Chicago on Thursday. I will meet my uncle in Chicago on Friday, and from there we will take the EB back to Spokane from there. The EB portion is unaffected; if I have to cancel the New England portion there are many ways to get to Chicago from Spokane. There are still rooms available on the CS from Portland to Sacramento and from Sacramento to Chicago on the CZ. And I can always grab a coach seat from Spokane to Portland. If I have to I can do that. I can think of worse plan B's than that one.


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## chakk (Sep 3, 2017)

The host railroads for Amtrak trains in the southeastern US are more likey to make the call. And CSX seems to me quite likely to block transit through their system in the Carolinas and Florida by ANY train -- including their own freights -- if a hurricane is forecast to make landfall or snuggle close to shore.


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## John Bobinyec (Sep 4, 2017)

It'll be interesting to see how CSX handles its first major hurricane if it hits Jacksonville, Fla. As you may know, CSX has recently moved all of its dispatching back to Jacksonville. They're supposed to be able to run the railroad from alternate locations, but the big question is who would do that if the dispatchers are still stuck in Florida? In such a situation, if the railroad can't be dispatched from a location which is unaffected by the hurricane, then the whole railroad in the eastern United States could be shut down.

jb


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## RPC (Sep 4, 2017)

John Bobinyec said:


> It'll be interesting to see how CSX handles its first major hurricane if it hits Jacksonville, Fla. As you may know, CSX has recently moved all of its dispatching back to Jacksonville. They're supposed to be able to run the railroad from alternate locations, but the big question is who would do that if the dispatchers are still stuck in Florida? In such a situation, if the railroad can't be dispatched from a location which is unaffected by the hurricane, then the whole railroad in the eastern United States could be shut down.
> 
> jb


This was one of the reasons CSX dispersed dispatching in the first place - I remember at least one occasion when the _Pere Marquette_ didn't run just because Jacksonville was under water.


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## neroden (Sep 4, 2017)

John Bobinyec said:


> It'll be interesting to see how CSX handles its first major hurricane if it hits Jacksonville, Fla. As you may know, CSX has recently moved all of its dispatching back to Jacksonville. They're supposed to be able to run the railroad from alternate locations, but the big question is who would do that if the dispatchers are still stuck in Florida? In such a situation, if the railroad can't be dispatched from a location which is unaffected by the hurricane, then the whole railroad in the eastern United States could be shut down.
> 
> jb


CSX is run by the stupidest man in the railroad business.

If Jacksonville gets shut down by a hurricane on *top* of everything else they've screwed up lately, expect serious talk of nationalizing CSX.


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## pennyk (Sep 4, 2017)

From Orlando Sentinel.com 9/4/17: Hurricane Irma forecast to be in Florida on Friday

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-irma-labor-day-20170904-story.html



> Hurricane Irma is working its way through the Caribbean today and could reach Florida by Friday, forecasters say.
> 
> Meteorologists expect the Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, to remain a “dangerous major hurricane” through the week and to arrive in South Florida by Friday morning.
> 
> Modeling by the National Hurricane Center shows the outer bands of the slow-moving, potentially dangerous storm lashing Key West and Miami by 8 a.m.


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## Lonestar648 (Sep 4, 2017)

This site (http://spaghettimodels.com/) is the best resource for hurricane information. Many TV stations along the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Carolinas go to this site to update their databases. Mike operates this non-profit site so anyone can be informed, analyze the data, and make their own predictions.


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## Cho Cho Charlie (Sep 4, 2017)

If Irma does hit the Miami area, would Amtrak temporarily have the southern most termination be in, say, Orlando? Or would they simply not run the Silvers at all?


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## gabbygrrl (Sep 4, 2017)

Thank you everyone for the valuable information! We have set up a few contingency plans "just in case". I had no idea how Amtrak handled big storms so I appreciate all of the input.

We don't fly until 9/12 so if Miami doesn't get to backed up, we may just be ok.

Fingers crossed for those in South Florida. Hoping they are safe.


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## the_traveler (Sep 4, 2017)

If the host railroad (in this case CSX for the southern half of the route) anticipates heavy winds, they may remove the crossing gate arms from their signals, as they could become damaged or flying projectiles. If that is done, Amtrak has no choice but to cancel service.


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## brianpmcdonnell17 (Sep 4, 2017)

Cho Cho Charlie said:


> If Irma does hit the Miami area, would Amtrak temporarily have the southern most termination be in, say, Orlando? Or would they simply not run the Silvers at all?


Theoretically, the trains could be turned in Orlando or maybe even Tampa. However, the hurricane is unlikely to hit Miami and go right back out over the ocean, so Central Florida is also at risk. It is also unlikely, however, that the entire route would be temporarily cancelled. If service could not continue as far south as Orlando, Jacksonville and Savannah are other possible turnaround points. 
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## John Bobinyec (Sep 5, 2017)

Well, the latest forecasts show Irma starting at south Florida and going right up the peninsula. Hope CSX is moving their dispatchers to one of their alternate inland dispatching locations. Anybody know where those are located?

jb


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## Rail Freak (Sep 5, 2017)

Anyone have an idea when Amtrak may decide to cancel the Silvers? ( in case I decide to run for it)


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## Cho Cho Charlie (Sep 5, 2017)

brianpmcdonnell17 said:


> Cho Cho Charlie said:
> 
> 
> > If Irma does hit the Miami area, would Amtrak temporarily have the southern most termination be in, say, Orlando? Or would they simply not run the Silvers at all?
> ...


Your reply (thanks!) got me to thinking about my true question a bit more deeply. Does the turn-around have to be in Miami? Is it Miami or nothing (not Orlando, not Jacksonville, not Savannah), possibly due to re-supplies and maintenance are only available in Miami? Or can NYP supply/support a Silver with everything needed for a full round trip?


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## the_traveler (Sep 5, 2017)

It really all depends on CSX.

If they say remove dispatch to WAS, they may be cancelled totally. If they remove dispatch south of VA, maybe it will go to RVR. If they remove the crossing arms throughout FL, it may go to Savannah.

In other words, nobody knows right now.


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## Palmetto (Sep 5, 2017)

I have never heard of a railroad removing road crossing gates prior to a pending severe storm. They certainly didn't do that prior to Hurricane Harvey. That would've taken weeks.


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## brianpmcdonnell17 (Sep 5, 2017)

Palmetto said:


> I have never heard of a railroad removing road crossing gates prior to a pending severe storm. They certainly didn't do that prior to Hurricane Harvey. That would've taken weeks.


CSX has done it before in South Florida.
Sent from my SM-J327P using Amtrak Forum mobile app


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## Seaboard92 (Sep 5, 2017)

It's part of standard operating procedures in Florida and I think all of CSX to be honest.


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## Palmetto (Sep 6, 2017)

Interesting. Then, how long does it take to put them all back? I presume that would be a requirement before returning to normal train operation.


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## Seaboard92 (Sep 6, 2017)

It doesn't take that long to remove the gates each signal maintainer normally is responsible for about thirty miles of track (at least in SC). So it's a fairly rapid process.


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 6, 2017)

Seaboard92 said:


> It doesn't take that long to remove the gates each signal maintainer normally is responsible for about thirty miles of track (at least in SC). So it's a fairly rapid process.


Thirty miles is a lot where I live. Enough to included dozens of grade crossings through busy roadways, several of them four lanes wide. With all the rail fans in FL you'd think there would be plenty of videos and articles about this amazing orchestrated shutdown of the CSX system every time a major storm comes near.


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## A Voice (Sep 6, 2017)

Devil's Advocate said:


> With all the rail fans in FL you'd think there would be plenty of videos and articles about this amazing orchestrated shutdown of the CSX system every time a major storm comes near.


I would think those Florida railfans have far more important things to do, with a major storm imminent where they reside, than film a guy taking lengths of wood off a crossing arm.


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 6, 2017)

A Voice said:


> Devil's Advocate said:
> 
> 
> > With all the rail fans in FL you'd think there would be plenty of videos and articles about this amazing orchestrated shutdown of the CSX system every time a major storm comes near.
> ...


I would think CSX would have more important things to do than take down every grade crossing gate before every storm.


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## Seaboard92 (Sep 6, 2017)

I've spent a lot of time with the CsX signal guys. It depends a lot on the territory. I can speak for my territory in which I spent time with the signal department.

CN&L sub

C60-C70 is managed by the Spartanburg Sub guy giving him about forty miles

Hoagie C60-C30

Ed C30-C0 plus some extra crossings in downtown Columbia.

Monroe Sub

SG428-SG397 belongs to Mark

SG397-SG363 belongs to Rex

SG363-332 belongs to Kevin.

Now granted a lot of that is rural South Carolina but there are some fairly large cities on those routes as well. And that was the assignment last time I was in Clinton so 2014.

In times of weather emergency they tend to work together. And most of the year Hoagie and Rex work in each other's territory all year long together.


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## A Voice (Sep 6, 2017)

Devil's Advocate said:


> A Voice said:
> 
> 
> > Devil's Advocate said:
> ...


Not at all. With respect, I'm not sure why you find it remarkable that companies or individuals in the path of a _major_ storm (Irma) would take precautions to protect their property. You're going to have to reinstall the gates anyway if you leave them in place only to have them damaged or destroyed (become projectiles) by the storm; Why have to deal with unnecessary damage afterwards - when you're anxious to get the main back open - when a few prudent preparations are so much simpler.


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## Palmetto (Sep 6, 2017)

The Miami _Sun Sentinel_ reports that Tri-Rail will secure their crossing arms in the up position, if they need to. I wonder if that's a faster operation than taking the arm off, storing it, then driving it back to its location to put it back on.


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 6, 2017)

A Voice said:


> With respect, I'm not sure why you find it remarkable that companies or individuals in the path of a _major_ storm (Irma) would take precautions to protect their property. You're going to have to reinstall the gates anyway if you leave them in place only to have them damaged or destroyed (become projectiles) by the storm; Why have to deal with unnecessary damage afterwards - when you're anxious to get the main back open - when a few prudent preparations are so much simpler.


This doesn't sound terribly simple to me, nor have I ever seen or even heard of anyone doing this previously, and I live near a major hurricane path. It's also unclear where these things would go that Irma can't reach. Is there some sort of special underground bunker for crossing gates? Out here crossing gates are the responsibility of the city and state, not the railroad. If they're damaged or down the railroad can use other methods for protecting an active crossing. Not saying it's impossible that CSX does this, just that it's odd and unusual relative to my own experiences.


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## Seaboard92 (Sep 6, 2017)

Devil's Advocate said:


> A Voice said:
> 
> 
> > With respect, I'm not sure why you find it remarkable that companies or individuals in the path of a _major_ storm (Irma) would take precautions to protect their property. You're going to have to reinstall the gates anyway if you leave them in place only to have them damaged or destroyed (become projectiles) by the storm; Why have to deal with unnecessary damage afterwards - when you're anxious to get the main back open - when a few prudent preparations are so much simpler.
> ...


They go to wherever is the supply depot for the signal maintainers. Usually it's in some form of old intermodal container, a building, or in a completely fenced in yard. In SC in the Piedmont area CSX has two such locations greenwood maxwell yard and Clinton, SC that I know of for fact.


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## chakk (Sep 6, 2017)

I would expect cancellations to begin at least 24 hours before forecast landfall. They would not want a southbound train to get trapped in Florida in such a powerful hurricane.


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## brianpmcdonnell17 (Sep 6, 2017)

Are there any plans to move the equipment north? It would make sense for the purposes of extra capacity on Northound trains and would also protect the equipment itself in the event of severe damage to Hialeah. There was a thread in Random Discussions about the issues that flooding could cause for the Amtrak facility (the thread was about the possibility of Amtrak permanently moving the facility due to climate change).

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## PRR 60 (Sep 6, 2017)

Right now, Amtrak has blocked reservations for all service to and from points south of Jacksonville beginning tomorrow (9/7) and extending through Monday (9/11). The Auto Train is blocked for the same period. Blocking reservations does not necessarily equate to cancellation, but it anticipates the probability.


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## Rail Freak (Sep 6, 2017)

I was able to get a reservation on #98 0n Sat the 9th to Was, but I just got notified they have cancelled the res because of Irma!!!

Looks like a hurricane party!!! :huh:


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## bmjhagen9426 (Sep 6, 2017)

I'm sure that an Amtrak employee on the forum could give some insight. Also, flights may be affected (deviations at best), as the tops of storm clouds could reach 50,000 feet (about 15 km)


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 6, 2017)

pennyk said:


> From Orlando Sentinel.com 9/4/17: Hurricane Irma forecast to be in Florida on Friday
> 
> http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-irma-labor-day-20170904-story.html
> 
> ...


Did she slow down? She's not expected till Sunday, now, right?


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## Thirdrail7 (Sep 6, 2017)

The situation remains fluid. CSX still has to weigh in.

Amtrak Suspends Service in Florida



> Amtrak Suspends Service in Florida
> Severe weather expected to impact region
> 
> Sept. 6, 2017
> ...


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## pennyk (Sep 6, 2017)

AmtrakBlue said:


> pennyk said:
> 
> 
> > From Orlando Sentinel.com 9/4/17: Hurricane Irma forecast to be in Florida on Friday
> ...


The latest I have heard is that she likely will hit Miami on Sunday morning and go up the length of Florida for about 24 hours. Our forecasters think that we will get the worst of the storm around 3am Monday. Of course things could change.


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## jis (Sep 6, 2017)

According to the latest forecast based on the NHC 20:00EDT Wednesday run results, we in Melbourne get the highest wind speeds at 21:00 EDT on Sunday, with winds winding down through the night, and pretty much down to normal by 7am Monday.

But of course, all this will change fifteen times or more between now and Sunday. 

I guess tomorrow I should start putting up the hurricane shutters. Dusted them off today and verified that all the anchors are in ship shape. Just gotta pop em into place and tighten the anchor screws.


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 6, 2017)

jis said:


> According to the latest forecast based on the NHC 20:00EDT Wednesday run results, we in Melbourne get the highest wind speeds at 21:00 EDT on Sunday, with winds winding down through the night, and pretty much down to normal by 7am Monday.
> 
> But of course, all this will change fifteen times or more between now and Sunday.
> 
> I guess tomorrow I should start putting up the hurricane shutters. Dusted them off today and verified that all the anchors are in ship shape. Just gotta pop em into place and tighten the anchor screws.


Make sure all your lizard friends get inside before you lock up.


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## Train2104 (Sep 6, 2017)

Turning at ORL and JAX is interesting, especially without corresponding northbounds originating at ORL/JAX.


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## brianpmcdonnell17 (Sep 6, 2017)

Train2104 said:


> Turning at ORL and JAX is interesting, especially without corresponding northbounds originating at ORL/JAX.


It is possible that Amtrak might originate in Orlando/Jacksonville on the first day of service restoration but they are not confident enough in the date on which service will resume to make such an announcement.
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## neroden (Sep 6, 2017)

I hope Amtrak is doing something to protect equipment at Hialeah. Terrible location for a maintenance base to be at ground level. Maybe they'll deadhead it out with the last trains north?


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## jis (Sep 6, 2017)

AmtrakBlue said:


> jis said:
> 
> 
> > According to the latest forecast based on the NHC 20:00EDT Wednesday run results, we in Melbourne get the highest wind speeds at 21:00 EDT on Sunday, with winds winding down through the night, and pretty much down to normal by 7am Monday.
> ...


They know how to get in even when everything is locked up


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## the_traveler (Sep 7, 2017)

Are those Lounge lizards? :huh: :giggle:


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## dlagrua (Sep 7, 2017)

Its difficult to say where Irma's exact path will be but Southern FL is the most likely target. I pray for forum members, my friends and family who may be in Florida and certainly hope that life will be saved and damage avoided.. For those wishing to evacuate, I just read that some airlines have raised their fares by a factor of 10X. Nice of them isn't it?


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 7, 2017)

dlagrua said:


> Its difficult to say where Irma's exact path will be but Southern FL is the most likely target. I pray for forum members, my friends and family who may be in Florida and certainly hope that life will be saved and damage avoided.. For those wishing to evacuate, *I just read that some airlines have raised their fares by a factor of 10X*. Nice of them isn't it?


Fake News

http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/06/news/companies/jetblue-hurricane-flights/index.html


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## Ryan (Sep 7, 2017)

Perhaps you should look into some more reputable reporting.

What is nice of the airlines is pulling off one last flight out of San Juan in between the bands of the hurricane to get 180 more people to safety.

https://twitter.com/i/moments/905487561182908416


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 7, 2017)

You're both equally right/wrong. At first the airlines jacked up fares to borderline insane levels. But after people started complaining and attacking them on social media the airlines started allowing for manual reductions and modifying the pricing algorithms to cap the cost of certain flights. That being said, this is a relatively new development and is not something to be counted on in the future. Right now everyone is really interested in hurricanes, but if these types of storms start to become more common or the news media loses interest in hurricane coverage the airlines might decide the bad press is worth the extra money.


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## Ryan (Sep 7, 2017)

To be more correct, the pricing algorithms jacked the prices up based solely on massive demand and proximity to the travel dates.

Unless you have something else that the airlines deliberately went in and modified the pricing upward specifically because of the hurricane, which is what Dennis accused them of.


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## SarahZ (Sep 7, 2017)

Ryan said:


>


Dat flight path... <3


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## Bob Dylan (Sep 7, 2017)

How are our Florida AUers doing?

Hope everyone is Safe and prepared, and also that Mother Nature will steer Irma away from the Sunshine State out to Sea!


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 7, 2017)

Ryan said:


> To be more correct, the pricing algorithms jacked the prices up based solely on massive demand and proximity to the travel dates. Unless you have something else that the airlines deliberately went in and modified the pricing upward specifically because of the hurricane, which is what Dennis accused them of.


For most customers it makes no practical difference if a human entered the price by following the rule book or a human converted the rule book into code that enters the price on their behalf. The result for the consumer is the same either way. Rather than worry about a distinction without a difference it would make more sense to focus on the fact that social media and fear of being the one airline that refused to react actually managed to help millions of travelers get where they needed to go. That's been a rare occurrence for airline travelers after years of consolidation and reductions in available seat miles. I would also suggest that the motivation for (and future cost of) purchasing Jet Blue just went up.


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## Cho Cho Charlie (Sep 7, 2017)

What a hurricane back in 1935 did to a train in Florida.


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## Ryan (Sep 7, 2017)

Devil's Advocate said:


> Rather than worry about a distinction without a difference


I'm glad that it doesn't make a difference for you. For others it does.


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## Cho Cho Charlie (Sep 7, 2017)

Thirdrail7 said:


> > The Silver Star Train 92 and Silver Meteor Train 98 (Miami - New York City) are cancelled for Sept. 9 - 11.


I was just watching the news, and they are reporting that evacuation highways are already crowded, and gas stations are starting to run out of gas.

This got me wondering if Amtrak would have extra cars on their last north-bound 92 and 98 (on Sept 8?), to offer an option to those wanting to evacuate north out of Miami. Or no one in the Miami area would ever think of taking Amtrak?


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## Metra Electric Rider (Sep 7, 2017)

Is Tampa evacuating or not? I have a friend in St. Pete who said they would know today, but haven't heard anything yet. My cousin in central Florida is hunkered down in their poured concrete house (I hope yours is too JIS).

I gather my friends in San Juan are ok (luckily almost everything in PR is built from poured concrete and it's relatively hilly in the San Juan area too).


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 7, 2017)

Ryan said:


> Devil's Advocate said:
> 
> 
> > Rather than worry about a distinction without a difference
> ...


Let me see if I can understand the difference as you see it. The airlines followed their own standard operating procedure which they themselves had crafted and was designed from the start to result in severe fare increases each and every time an exceptional number of people wanted to travel to or from the same location at the same time. But what's important to you is that behind the scenes these fares were entered by an algorithm following a digital rule book rather than a human clerk following the exact same rules from a physical book. I guess this is intended to point out that the airlines are only willing to charge whatever they can get 99.99% of the time and it's the algorithm's fault that this briefly reached 100% until someone stepped in and manually set it back to 99.99% again? Yeah, I can see why that's such an important case to make.


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 7, 2017)

DA, you should know, as well as anyone, that it can take 6 months to a year for the programmers to make the necessary changes to the program to not bump the prices at times like this.


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## Ryan (Sep 7, 2017)

You're missing the point. Dennis' contention was that prices were jacked up specifically because of the hurricane. As in, someone sitting in Airport HQ said "Hey - there's going to be a lot of people wanting to get out of the storm, we can make a pile of money by charging huge fares".

That contention is completely and totally false.

The algorithms used work the same regardless of the reason for the demand. Like I said, if that's not important for you, go for it. But it's critically important when someone ascribes motive behind the price changes that isn't there.


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## brianpmcdonnell17 (Sep 7, 2017)

Metra Electric Rider said:


> Is Tampa evacuating or not? I have a friend in St. Pete who said they would know today, but haven't heard anything yet. My cousin in central Florida is hunkered down in their poured concrete house (I hope yours is too JIS).
> 
> I gather my friends in San Juan are ok (luckily almost everything in PR is built from poured concrete and it's relatively hilly in the San Juan area too).


Pinellas county (including St. Petersburg) is evacuating Zone A, which is the first of 5 flood zones and includes very low elevation areas and all mobile homes. No evacuation would likely be necessary if it does stay on it's current course, but the precaution is likely a good thing as if the storm turns and makes a direct hit more than one of the zones would likely need to be evacuated. 
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## JoeBas (Sep 7, 2017)

New Euro model is west.


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 7, 2017)

Ryan said:


> You're missing the point. Dennis' contention was that prices were jacked up specifically because of the hurricane. As in, someone sitting in Airport HQ said "Hey - there's going to be a lot of people wanting to get out of the storm, we can make a pile of money by charging huge fares". That contention is completely and totally false. The algorithms used work the same regardless of the reason for the demand. Like I said, if that's not important for you, go for it. But it's critically important when someone ascribes motive behind the price changes that isn't there.


I think what you're saying is that this wasn't a hot headed spur of the moment decision to screw over people desperate to escape Hurricane Imra, and I agree with that. It was a calm and deliberate decision to charge the maximum possible price to anyone, anywhere, anytime a lot of people were traveling to and/or from the same location at the same time, including when it's caused by a hurricane or other disaster. There was a time you could claim this was a naive programmatic accident in the past, but in the modern post-Enron era there is no such thing as simply forgetting about hurricanes or other weather based phenomena strong enough to impact supply and demand. In other words it's a genuine difference at the technical level, but it's also a distinction without any practical significance for most consumers.


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## Cho Cho Charlie (Sep 7, 2017)

Ryan said:


> You're missing the point. Dennis' contention was that prices were jacked up specifically because of the hurricane. As in, someone sitting in Airport HQ said "Hey - there's going to be a lot of people wanting to get out of the storm, we can make a pile of money by charging huge fares".
> 
> That contention is completely and totally false.
> 
> The algorithms used work the same regardless of the reason for the demand. Like I said, if that's not important for you, go for it. But it's critically important when someone ascribes motive behind the price changes that isn't there.


Just to add, I just saw a story on the news, the now "famous" bump of an air ticket price to over $3K was not on any airlines' website, but rather on one of those 3rd party discount ticket websites. The price wasn't even real, and as already pointed out here, was the unintended pre-programmed response in that 3rd party's website software to a sudden interest in buying tickets.


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## west point (Sep 7, 2017)

Zip ties might fix gates in up position.


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## Thirdrail7 (Sep 7, 2017)

CSX has weighed in. Keep your eye on the website for additional updates.


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 7, 2017)

Cho Cho Charlie said:


> Ryan said:
> 
> 
> > You're missing the point. Dennis' contention was that prices were jacked up specifically because of the hurricane. As in, someone sitting in Airport HQ said "Hey - there's going to be a lot of people wanting to get out of the storm, we can make a pile of money by charging huge fares".
> ...


Aggregate sites generally get their prices from the same ticketing systems that airlines use to publish fares to their own front ends, and $3,000 is well within the realm of plausibility for a domestic flight in a distressed market, so I'm not sure how you (or your as yet unnamed news source) determined a given fare was not bookable after the fact. The way this normally works is that someone files a complaint with a state's attorney general office including whatever details and evidence they can manage. If enough complaints and evidence are submitted the staff will look it over and eventually decide if they want to subpoena system logs and investigate further. To be fair, this is one area where Ryan's distinction _does_ make a difference. So long as the potential price increases were loaded into the system before the storm existed or threatened anyone the airlines are largely protected from accusations of profiteering and price gouging. They can simply claim that the computer didn't know any better and applied the same rules as always. Apparently that's considered a valid defense for a large corporation in an anti-fraud case at the state level.


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## pennyk (Sep 7, 2017)

To get this thread (Hurricane Irma and Amtrak) back on topic: Those of us living in Florida, whether staying put or trying to evacuate, are very concerned about the enormity of this storm. There is nothing funny about this storm.

I wish safety to my fellow Floridians (and likely to Georgians, South Carolinians and North Carolinians).

FYI, both Meteors were running about an hour late through Orlando. I have a friend who wanted to take 98 north today and it was sold out.


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## Ryan (Sep 7, 2017)

Goes without saying, but if y’all need anything, make sure we know about it.


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 7, 2017)

I hope more people have flood insurance in FL than they did in TX. Around here a lack of funding means that flood maps are rarely updated these days and homeowners are often unaware they're located in an expanding flood plain. I also read that FEMA may go bankrupt in the next few days if the federal government doesn't move quickly to replenish the budget. Not sure what that means for FL but apparently we didn't budget for more than one big storm this year and we're still months away from the end of hurricane season.


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## Maverickstation (Sep 7, 2017)

Here is the update from Amtrak.

Amtrak Suspends Service in Florida	Severe weather expected to impact region
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sept. 7, 2017[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]3 p.m. ET[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Amtrak will temporarily suspend services in Florida due to severe weather impacting the southeast region. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The _Silver Star_ Train 92 and _Silver Meteor_[/SIZE] Train 98 (Miami - New York City) are cancelled for Sept. 9 - 11.

[SIZE=10.5pt]The _Silver Star _Train 91 (New York City - Miami) will operate from New York City to Orlando, Fla., on Thursday, Sept. 7. The _Silver Meteor _[/SIZE]Train 97 (New York City - Miami) will operate from New York City to Jacksonville, Fla. Trains 91 and 97 are cancelled for Sept. 8 - 10.

[SIZE=10.5pt]The _Auto Train_ 53 (Lorton, Va. - Sanford, Fla.) is cancelled for Friday, Sept.8, and Saturday, Sept. 9. The _Auto Train_[/SIZE] 52 (Sanford, Fla. - Lorton, Va.) is cancelled on Sept. 9-11.

[SIZE=10.5pt]No alternate transportation will be provided.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Amtrak regrets any inconvenience. This information is correct as of the above time and date. Information is subject to change as conditions warrant.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Anyone can subscribe to automated email or text message notifications if Amtrak trains are behind schedule at specific stations. Notifications can be given for up to six trains and stations by either text or email and delivered when you choose - on a single day, every day, or just certain days of the week. Create a subscription at Amtrak.com/delayalerts.https://na01.safelinks.protection.o...zfGPT6H4jjdJ/a/1HIcJ7BXawG8bpUQO8=&reserved=0[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Passengers with travel plans also can confirm their train's status, change their plans or review refund informationhttps://na01.safelinks.protection.o...pHXwA68HaykK24a6res6n9yO0GodRfFEg=&reserved=0[/SIZE] using a range of tools – including Amtrak.com, smartphone apps or by calling 800-USA-RAIL. Service Alerts, Passenger Notices and other announcements are posted at Amtrak.com/alerts.

[SIZE=10.5pt]To be notified of service disruptions on the Northeast Corridor (including _Acela Express_, _Northeast Regional_[/SIZE] and other corridor services), follow @AmtrakNEC on Twitter.


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## neroden (Sep 8, 2017)

Devil's Advocate said:


> I hope more people have flood insurance in FL than they did in TX. Around here a lack of funding means that flood maps are rarely updated these days and homeowners are often unaware they're located in an expanding flood plain. I also read that FEMA may go bankrupt in the next few days if the federal government doesn't move quickly to replenish the budget. Not sure what that means for FL but apparently we didn't budget for more than one big storm this year and we're still months away from the end of hurricane season.


There is now an omnibus bill with "Harvey relief funding" (actually just more money for FEMA period) and a debt limit raise to December. It passed the Senate. It needs to pass the House TOMORROW to avoid FEMA running out of money on SATURDAY. It is believed that they will do so, though it's hard to tell since Speaker Ryan is a clown who doesn't understand the sort of danger he's playing with. It's not clear how long that money will last, so there will be another FEMA funding crisis a few weeks later, most likely.


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## neroden (Sep 8, 2017)

Cho Cho Charlie said:


> I was just watching the news, and they are reporting that evacuation highways are already crowded, and gas stations are starting to run out of gas.
> 
> This got me wondering if Amtrak would have extra cars on their last north-bound 92 and 98 (on Sept 8?), to offer an option to those wanting to evacuate north out of Miami. Or no one in the Miami area would ever think of taking Amtrak?


At the moment they're all SOLD OUT, and I think they're really sold out.

I wonder if Amtrak will offer the use of the trains turning in Jacksonville and Orlando today, Friday (and I sure hope they're turning, 'cause it would be crazy to park them in either city) as evac trains for people from those cities? I would have called the mayors and offered them this.


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## Train2104 (Sep 8, 2017)

53 (8) and 52 (9), originally scheduled to be the last trains to/from FL, have been cancelled.


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## Green Maned Lion (Sep 8, 2017)

Speaker Ryan is not a clown, you are confusing him with Poster Ryan. Speaker Ryan is a jerk, Poster Ryan is a clown. I think.


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## jis (Sep 8, 2017)

Oy vey! According to the 9/8/17 (Friday) 8am update from NHC Orlando is smack dab in the middle of the parojected path of a Cat 2 hurricane! Due to pass through the night between Sunday and Monday.

This is actually good news for us at the east coast. With the 30 mile diameter eye, that puts us well beyond the eye wall.

But of course projections will keep changing until it actually comes by. The trend at present is for the path to shift westwards, since the Bermuda High has proved to be stronger than anyone anticipated, and the Low over continental US seems to be also doing a bang up job pulling it towards itself.


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## Everydaymatters (Sep 8, 2017)

Jis, Penny and other Au members in Florida, are you staying or leaving? Best wishes to all. Stay safe.


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## brianpmcdonnell17 (Sep 8, 2017)

Everydaymatters said:


> Jis, Penny and other Au members in Florida, are you staying or leaving? Best wishes to all. Stay safe.


I'm in Clearwater and I'm staying. As of now they have only evacuated Zone A and announced they will not evacuate above Zone C, while I am in Zone E. Obviously there is still wind and to a certain extent water to worry about, but I will likely be on the west (weaker) side of the storm. 
Sent from my SM-J327P using Amtrak Forum mobile app


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## jis (Sep 8, 2017)

I am in no Zone and had never planned to leave for this one or for Matthew, for which we were in the bull's eye. All buttoned up in a 2004 code+ concrete house with strong storm shutters installed all around.


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## JoeBas (Sep 8, 2017)

K, hope you got a good generator to get through the 2-3 weeks without power! *waves*


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## pennyk (Sep 8, 2017)

Everydaymatters said:


> Jis, Penny and other Au members in Florida, are you staying or leaving? Best wishes to all. Stay safe.


Thanks Betty. I am staying in Orlando and I hope my windows hold out. I am in a high rise condo with no shutters, but a solid concrete building. To say the least, I am a bit anxious about Orlando being in the "bullseye." I plan to move as much as I can away from my windows. I also plan to sit it the hallway in front of my apartment, likely with the other residents of my floor, during the worst of the storm.


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## Mystic River Dragon (Sep 8, 2017)

I add my best wishes to you all as well.


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## JayPea (Sep 8, 2017)

I add my best wishes to all those in the hurricane's projected path. Stay safe!!!


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## Metra Electric Rider (Sep 8, 2017)

brianpmcdonnell17 said:


> Metra Electric Rider said:
> 
> 
> > Is Tampa evacuating or not? I have a friend in St. Pete who said they would know today, but haven't heard anything yet. My cousin in central Florida is hunkered down in their poured concrete house (I hope yours is too JIS).
> ...


He's downtown, relatively near the water (1/2 to 1/4 mile I think). He was going to "hunker down" or ride it out, but I'm hearing second hand, starting to get a bit antsy about him. I hope he's going to stay with somebody in your zone - I remember having the higher area pointed out as generally not being evacuated.

Good luck to you, Penny and Jis (and his lizards) as well as any other Florida members!


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## dlagrua (Sep 8, 2017)

Ryan said:


> To be more correct, the pricing algorithms jacked the prices up based solely on massive demand and proximity to the travel dates.
> 
> Unless you have something else that the airlines deliberately went in and modified the pricing upward specifically because of the hurricane, which is what Dennis accused them of.


Don't you find it odd that these massive air fare increases just happened coincidentally at the very time that the hurricane was moving toward Florida? . Read the experiences of the actual Twitter account users where this happened to them. Then just as fast as the airlines were exposed for this action, the fares magically went down. I guess just another coincidence.


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## pennyk (Sep 8, 2017)

Everydaymatters said:


> Jis, Penny and other Au members in Florida, are you staying or leaving? Best wishes to all. Stay safe.


Shanghai lives near Winter Haven and plans to ride out the storm there. He, his wife and Archie have plenty of supplies, including a generator.


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 8, 2017)

dlagrua said:


> Ryan said:
> 
> 
> > To be more correct, the pricing algorithms jacked the prices up based solely on massive demand and proximity to the travel dates.
> ...


If the airlines manually manipulated fares right as a major storm was approaching they'd be risking a conviction for profiteering. That's why in the post-Enron era it's almost certainly a programmatic event rather than the direct actions of a human yield manager. The motivation and result are similar but potential for liability is greatly reduced thanks to the ability to blame "unforeseen" consequences.


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 8, 2017)

dlagrua said:


> Ryan said:
> 
> 
> > To be more correct, the pricing algorithms jacked the prices up based solely on massive demand and proximity to the travel dates.
> ...


Didn't you read Ryan's post "massive demand". Gee, I wonder why there was a massive demand so close to when the last flights will leaving the Miami area.


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## Rail Freak (Sep 8, 2017)

Thanx to all for the best wishes & prayers. I'm in a mobile home in Palm Harbor & will be staying with my brother in north Tampa for the adventure. Had a Plan B, Amtrak - STP to WAS, but was cancelled (service disruption)!

Good Luck & Have Fun to all my fellow Floridians & AUers!!!


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## DesertRat (Sep 8, 2017)

Considering this storm is big enough to thump all of Florida, I don't know one can have any choice but cancel. Wait and see, I guess.


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## pennyk (Sep 8, 2017)

Rail Freak said:


> Thanx to all for the best wishes & prayers. I'm in a mobile home in Palm Harbor & will be staying with my brother in north Tampa for the adventure. Had a Plan B, Amtrak - STP to WAS, but was cancelled (service disruption)!
> 
> Good Luck & Have Fun to all my fellow Floridians & AUers!!!


Be safe Michael. Last I heard, the west coast of Florida may feel the effects of Irma more than we will in Central Florida. No doubt, the path will change many times before Sunday. I am ready to eat and drink my "hurricane snacks."


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## west point (Sep 8, 2017)

Irma will be just a cat 1 here at Georgia. Do not be surprised if there is as much wind damage in Georgia as Florida, The building codes where there are any are severely lacking. Example no Florida type window strength codes . Only the Atlanta area has any thing that even resembles wind strength.


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## Rail Freak (Sep 8, 2017)

pennyk said:


> Be safe Michael. Last I heard, the west coast of Florida may feel the effects of Irma more than we will in Central Florida. No doubt, the path will change many times before Sunday. I am ready to eat and drink my "hurricane snacks."


Thanx Penny, hope to meet ya on the rails, some day!!!


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## Caesar La Rock (Sep 9, 2017)

I'm riding out the storm here in Orlando. All I'm worried about is flooding as there is a lake nearby (as are other people in my area), but we're confident we won't flood. Stay safe everyone in the state, we're all in this together.


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## the_traveler (Sep 9, 2017)

Hope everyone stays safe in Florida and the southeast!

I have a trip planned to TPA in 2 1/2 weeks. I just hope I can make it!


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## Green Maned Lion (Sep 9, 2017)

Personally if I was y'all I'd be holding a hurricane party in Louisville.


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## JRR (Sep 9, 2017)

We are in Pa visiting relatives and were scheduled to come back yesterday but our return to Deerfield Beach was rescheduled to Tuesday the 12th but that was cancelled by Amtrak yesterday.

We are now scheduled on the Silver Meteor out of Wilmington Del on Friday the 15th. Hope the family can put up with us!

Our prayers for all who are still there to endure the storm.


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## brianpmcdonnell17 (Sep 9, 2017)

Seaboard92 said:


> Devil said:
> 
> 
> > A Voice said:
> ...


CSX has removed some crossing gates on the Clearwater Subdivision; I just took these photos about 10 minutes ago in Downtown Clearwater. This crossing is Myrtle Avenue, the northern end of the downtown street-running segment. The next crossing in either direction is not equipped with gates anyway, but interestingly enough the following crossing in either direction is equipped with gates and they have yet to be removed. This segment of track is not in a flood zone, but the Intracoastal Waterway is less than a 1/2 mile away.
Sent from my SM-J327P using Amtrak Forum mobile app


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## Seaboard92 (Sep 9, 2017)

It could be a different maintainer responsible for it. Had to go unload a set of gates from the truck, or time for his meal break


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## jebr (Sep 9, 2017)

I'll also add my best wishes to all of our members affecting (or going to be affected) by Irma. Stay safe.


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## jis (Sep 9, 2017)

All ready for Irma ...

Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


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## Bob Dylan (Sep 9, 2017)

Looks good jis! Hope our AU friends and all the other Floridians and folks in the SE are safe and secure also!


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## Acela150 (Sep 9, 2017)

It should be noted that several Silver Service trainsets are tied down in Penn Coach yard here in Philly.

Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


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## Thirdrail7 (Sep 10, 2017)

Here is the  service alert that was issued after the CSX operating plan was released:



> Service Suspensions in the Southeast
> Severe weather continues to impact region
> 
> Sept. 8, 2017
> ...



Along those lines, CFRC also secures some of their gates in the upright positions. If the gates are long, they are removed. The last few train through the area had to flag the crossings.

To those of you remaining in Florida:


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## Rover (Sep 10, 2017)

The Roku "ABC News Channel" has a live stream of WPLG Miami Ch. 10 coverage of Hurricane Irma.


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## pennyk (Sep 10, 2017)

Feeder bands coming through Orlando, together with tornadoes. I still have power, but many of my friends who live just west of me are without power.


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 10, 2017)

I don't see a service alert, but 19/20 are cancelled for tomorrow and Tuesday's are showing "sold out" (I assume to stop sales in case they need to cancel Tuesday's too)


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## chakk (Sep 10, 2017)

All Florida trains are cancelled thru Sept 13.

Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


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## JRR (Sep 10, 2017)

I was scheduled on the Silver Meteor on Sep 12 to Deerfield Beach, Fl from Wilmington Del and was advised that it was cancelled. I talked to an agent and was rescheduled for Friday, Sep 15 and advised that it was the first available train.

We'll see if the Silver Service trains start running to Miami before that.


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## JRR (Sep 11, 2017)

It looks like the Silver service may resume to Florida on the 13th.

Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


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## Train2104 (Sep 11, 2017)

AmtrakBlue said:


> I don't see a service alert, but 19/20 are cancelled for tomorrow and Tuesday's are showing "sold out" (I assume to stop sales in case they need to cancel Tuesday's too)


I'm wonder if 19 (10) will operate past Atlanta...by then the area should be experiencing tropical-storm force winds.


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## JRR (Sep 11, 2017)

Correction- I meant the 14th. Mea Culpa!


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## neroden (Sep 11, 2017)

Crescent also cancelled for a day.


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## chakk (Sep 11, 2017)

19(10) did transit thru Atlanta this morning, but is cancelled for tomorrow. 20(11) is also cancelled.

Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


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## Metra Electric Rider (Sep 11, 2017)

I hope our Floridians have made it through Irma without injury!

My friend from St. Pete headed to family in Southern Illinois via back roads in Alabama due to gas shortages in Georgia (and after seven hours driving at 6 mph and hadn't gotten out of Florida), but I'm still waiting from word from relatives in Lake County who live in a concrete (including roof) house.


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## Carolina Special (Sep 11, 2017)

I hope our Floridians are OK as well. Given the power outages in the state, it may be awhile before they can post.

Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


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## Metra Electric Rider (Sep 11, 2017)

Over on the "What are you doing right now?" there are updates that, so far, all of our Floridians are doing well!


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## RPC (Sep 11, 2017)

Metra Electric Rider said:


> Over on the "What are you doing right now?" there are updates that, so far, all of our Floridians are doing well!


Thank (insert deity here)! In lesser news, any idea how the Brighline stations and consists weathered the storm?


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## pennyk (Sep 11, 2017)

Orlando is slowly getting our power restored (mine was restored shortly after 8pm tonight), however, there is major flooding in Jacksonville. I am hoping the flooding is far enough away from the station (which is northwest of downtown) so as to not affect train service for more than a couple of days.


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## John Bobinyec (Sep 12, 2017)

Jacksonville looks pretty bad. Is the CSX dispatching center anywhere near the flooding? I'm watching now to see if any part of CSX shuts down because of difficulties in getting dispatchers to their posts.

jb


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## jis (Sep 12, 2017)

Melbourne is relatively unscathed in spite of bearing the brunt of the Tornado Warnings. There is some significant damage of course (somewhere between 10 and 20 mobile homes and old building standard houses destroyed in tornado strikes for example), and power is still out all over the place knocking out traffic lights at many critical intersections, which are being manually directed by the Police. Lack of power also had most businesses closed yesterday. They are slowly coming on line today. Interestingly very few of the areas with underground power supply lines lost power, and even those that did got their back the quickest. The good news is, I don't know of any new development around here that is putting their power distribution from pole tops. Question is what will it take to convert the existing ones. FPL says they will have all power restored by the end of the coming weekend, which I think is pretty remarkable.

Incidentally, FEC had removed the gate arms around here at most crossings, and at others had immobilized them and tied them down in the vertical position. So that should lay to rest the armchair philosopher's discussion about what is done with crossing gate arms during major hurricanes. In any case there was no power to operate them in most places anyway. Power outage was widespread, according to some as much as 75% of the customers did not have power at some points in time. But they have been making remarkable progress restoring things.

FEC said they will be back in operation on Wednesday after they have been able to remove junk from the track, restore power and inspect everything.

Most likely CSX and hence Amtrak is probably in the same boat, though they are nowhere as near the sea as the FEC, which was inundated by storm surge in many places.


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## John Bobinyec (Sep 12, 2017)

To further explain a minor detail to the folks at home, crossing gates normally have power applied in order to stay open. City power is supplemented by battery power. When city power and battery backup power fails, the gates are balanced to fall to the closed position.

jb


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## neroden (Sep 12, 2017)

So the Crescent was only cancelled for one day (departures on the 11th). The Star/Meteor/Palmetto/Auto Train cancellations have been extended through the 13th; first chance of operation is the Thursday the 14th.

This will bite financially -- that's a lot of days without operation, and these trains are profitable before overhead. I hope there's no equipment damage.


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## jis (Sep 12, 2017)

John Bobinyec said:


> Jacksonville looks pretty bad. Is the CSX dispatching center anywhere near the flooding? I'm watching now to see if any part of CSX shuts down because of difficulties in getting dispatchers to their posts.
> 
> jb


Jacksonville has had severe flooding problems due to storm surge and severe flooding upstream in St. Johns River, trying to carry out all the water from around Orlando and even Melbourne. Melbourne received a foot of rain from the storm, and all that mostly flows into the St. Johns River, and not into the sea here. All that flows to Jacksonville!

I don't believe the areas facing the most sever flooding are around where the CSX headquarters is located though. That are is built on somewhat higher base AFAIR, even though it is close to the river. The surge was 2 - 4 feet there not 6+ feet. The outflow added another foot or two.


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## neroden (Sep 12, 2017)

Maybe that totally incompetent fool Hunter Harrison will reconsider his plan to move all the train dispatchers back to Jacksonville. Having one central dispatch center is all very well, but UP's is in Omaha and BNSF's is in Fort Worth. Jacksonville is a *bad location*. (Atlanta would probably be a better choice. Or Indianapolis. CSX has dispatching centers at both locations.)

I'm pretty sure Harrison's reputation for competence is completely undeserved. The man is an idiot. I suspect he has been coasting on other people's accomplishments. His only talent seems to be convincing board members to give him money. Admittedly, that's a talent I lack, since I'm not a con man -- but with no railroading experience, I could run any railroad better than that idiot.


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## pennyk (Sep 12, 2017)

I just drove up US 17/92 from Orlando to Winter Park (Whole Foods). During my northbound trip, none of the traffic lights in Orlando were working, although all were working in Winter Park. I believe many of the businesses along 17/92 were without power. I crossed the tracks at the crossing located at the border of Orlando and Winter Park. The cross arms were gone. I assume that either CSX or Florida DOT removed them. On my southbound trip, a couple of the lights in Orlando were working.

For someone who does not enjoy driving normally, this experience was very stressful. I will either be staying put for a while or venture out by foot.


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## jis (Sep 12, 2017)

The old CSX main line between Poinciana and Deland is now owned by FDOT and maintained and operated by CFCR (branded as SunRail). Whatever was done to the crossing gates was done by CFCR. Their operations center is located in their DeBary Yard between Sanford and DeBary.


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## jis (Sep 12, 2017)

Carolina Special said:


> I hope our Floridians are OK as well. Given the power outages in the state, it may be awhile before they can post.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


Power outage? What power outage. I never lost power for more than 15 seconds.  Those power grid changeover glitches happened many times. Never lost my Fiber internet connection either.

Now I am on a mission to equip my place with UPS's to bridge over those short changeover gaps.


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## Caesar La Rock (Sep 12, 2017)

I can report my power is back on too. Slowly places are coming back after getting power. Before the power came back, everyone lost power here and they lost service. No one could use their cellphones either, as the service was down.


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## Rail Freak (Sep 12, 2017)

Thanks for all the thoughts & prayers!!! Tampa Bay (Pinellas county) DODGED A BULLET for the most part!!!!! I'm back home on the AU Forum, where I'm most comfortable!!!!! (Thanks Jennifer for your PM)!!!!!!!!!

The hardest part of the evacuation was getting my cat Rusty into the pet carrier, getting him out was no problem at all, LMAO!!!!


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## AmtrakLKL (Sep 13, 2017)

Irma-affected service is planned resume service as follows:

Thur, Sept 14:

89 NYP-SAV

Fri, Sept 15:

90 SAV-NYP

91 NYP-JAX

92 JAX-NYP

Edited to reflect actual resumption.


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## Train2104 (Sep 13, 2017)

AmtrakLKL said:


> Irma-affected service is planned resume service as follows:
> 
> Thur, Sept 14:
> 
> ...


I guess the JAX and ORL sets will be deadheaded to MIA?


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## A Voice (Sep 13, 2017)

AmtrakLKL said:


> Irma-affected service is planned resume service as follows:
> 
> Thur, Sept 14:
> 
> ...


Were both Auto Train equipment sets brought north before the storm (else there won't be anything to run 53 on Saturday)? Didn't think there was space at Lorton for that.


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## Green Maned Lion (Sep 13, 2017)

neroden said:


> Maybe that totally incompetent fool Hunter Harrison will reconsider his plan to move all the train dispatchers back to Jacksonville. Having one central dispatch center is all very well, but UP's is in Omaha and BNSF's is in Fort Worth. Jacksonville is a *bad location*. (Atlanta would probably be a better choice. Or Indianapolis. CSX has dispatching centers at both locations.)
> 
> I'm pretty sure Harrison's reputation for competence is completely undeserved. The man is an idiot. I suspect he has been coasting on other people's accomplishments. His only talent seems to be convincing board members to give him money. Admittedly, that's a talent I lack, since I'm not a con man -- but with no railroading experience, I could run any railroad better than that idiot.


Don't confuse lacking a core competency with idiocy. I don't like Harrison any more than you do. But the job of a CEO, according to Wall Street and most Shareholders is to maximize investor return- and the focus on this has been increasingly short term focused. I disagree with this trend, but in his ability to exploit the desires thereof, E. Hunter Harrison is not an idiot; he's highly competent.

He's a terrible railroader, and Eddie Lambert is an incompetent retailer. But both are very good at accomplishing what they set out to do.


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## AmtrakLKL (Sep 13, 2017)

Train2104 said:


> I guess the JAX and ORL sets will be deadheaded to MIA?


I asked that very question and didn't receive an answer. Just told to be ready for trains to depart MIA and NYP on Friday.

Sent from my iPad using Amtrak Forum


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## AmtrakLKL (Sep 13, 2017)

A Voice said:


> Were both Auto Train equipment sets brought north before the storm (else there won't be anything to run 53 on Saturday)? Didn't think there was space at Lorton for that.


Yes, both sets are crammed into Lorton hence why 53 must resume service a day before 52.

Sent from my iPad using Amtrak Forum


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## VentureForth (Sep 13, 2017)

Since this thread includes Harvey, too, it's worth mentioning (again?) that EB SL leaves LA today, and will be turned in NOL as the first WB on Saturday.


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## Bob Dylan (Sep 13, 2017)

VentureForth said:


> Since this thread includes Harvey, too, it's worth mentioning (again?) that EB SL leaves LA today, and will be turned in NOL as the first WB on Saturday.


Did Savanah and you weather the storm OK?


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## RichieRich (Sep 13, 2017)

Caught the last train outta Orlando (#52) on Friday! By shear coincidence already had 2 rooms reserved on it. Three weeks prior...no indication of any storm out there. Seemed to happen fast AND shifted from the East Coast to the West Coast of FL. I AutoTrain down about 9 times-a-year. Felt very very lucky to get out just ahead of it...and sorry for those with Saturday+ reservations (canceled).


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## VentureForth (Sep 13, 2017)

Bob Dylan said:


> VentureForth said:
> 
> 
> > Since this thread includes Harvey, too, it's worth mentioning (again?) that EB SL leaves LA today, and will be turned in NOL as the first WB on Saturday.
> ...


Yes, sir. Much fewer issues than Matthew, thanks to it veering left. Thankful to be on the right. LOL

Our home had a tree come down, missing everything important. It's gonna be a pain to remove.


----------



## jis (Sep 13, 2017)

OTOH we had more issues with Irma than with Matthew in Brevard County, even though the eye of Matthew was much closer to us, simply because this time we fell on the so called "dirty" side of the eye, and were treated to extraordinarily violent feeder bands, placing us under almost continuous Tornado Warnings over eight hours, with numerous Tornado touchdowns (fortunately only EF0s), and squall winds upto 90+mph a hundred miles away from the eye. We had none of that with Matthew, for which the eye wall passed by us 15 miles off shore, but we were on the clean side.


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 13, 2017)

We just never know which side of the tracks we'll find Jis on. 

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## Caesar La Rock (Sep 13, 2017)

To go in depth on what I experienced, Irma was indeed much more potent then Matthew. Tornado warnings were going off like fireworks on the fourth of July. I counted over a dozen tornado warnings before I lost power over the course of three and half hours. When I saw four tornado warnings all at once, that was crazy.

There was tornado damage not far from my location in Winter Springs apparently. As far as I know, no damage to houses, just large trees down from that one. Flooding in areas like Bithlo and Pine Hills to name the few did happen and some people were rescued from the flooding.

I have a friend who lives in Bithlo have water come into his garage and laundry, but it didn't get in his house thankfully. I was concerned about the flooding myself, but since there were breaks in the rain after 20 or so minutes, the water receded.

It was one hectic night I gotta say and even after the storm that was tough, especially with no service in the area at all. The curfew was lifted early in Seminole County, but no one could get service through their phones regardless of where they went.

When night came on Monday, it was like walking into the woods with no street lights anywhere. I had to point my flashlight to the ground just so I didn't lost my way or turn into the wrong area. The only place that had food was the one chinese restaurant open in the area with a long line, but got food nonetheless.

Despite the store being dark, they did alright and served everyone. People were really civil and considerate of others, so for all the negatives that came from this storm, something good happened. It brought people together in this tough time.  Thanks for all the wishes from everyone by the way.


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## Metra Electric Rider (Sep 13, 2017)

jis said:


> Carolina Special said:
> 
> 
> > I hope our Floridians are OK as well. Given the power outages in the state, it may be awhile before they can post.
> ...



Glad all you guys weathered the storm ok!

My friend in DT St. Pete who evacuated said that his neighborhood didn't lose power, but they did lose internet, which is just inhumane (oh, the horrors). His workplace was built after Andrew and to quote him, is a bunker, with 2" thick glass in the windows, yet light, open and airy. They were going to reopen today, iirc, or tomorrow.

He hadn't left for home yet since his planned route (non-Interstate from Illinois) backl was still riddled with some closures in Florida and he was concerned about the route being bedeviled with ongoing gas shortages.

I'm letting my cousin be since if they don't have power yet there is no need to waste valuable battery life on my texts when his siblings can convey info on...


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## neroden (Sep 13, 2017)

Green Maned Lion said:


> neroden said:
> 
> 
> > Maybe that totally incompetent fool Hunter Harrison will reconsider his plan to move all the train dispatchers back to Jacksonville. Having one central dispatch center is all very well, but UP's is in Omaha and BNSF's is in Fort Worth. Jacksonville is a *bad location*. (Atlanta would probably be a better choice. Or Indianapolis. CSX has dispatching centers at both locations.)
> ...


Mmmm. Good point. But... bear with me here...

In railroading -- and any other capital-intensive business -- you can always temporarily increase *apparent* return over the short term by deferring maintenance. Of course, you end up decreasing return later on when you have to catch up on the maintenance. This is an old stock market manipulation trick which many railroaders have done since the 19th century. Given that enough investors are idiots who don't understand this, for a long time, you could fairly reliably profit from cyclical trading of any railroad stock based on this -- buying during periods of high maintenance expense (and low price) and selling during periods of low maintenance expense (and high prices)

While this trading style still seems to be somewhat effective, at some point, quite a lot of investors got wise to it -- specialist railroad stock analysts actually watch the maintenance funding now, and treat low numbers as bad. Enough traders are buying stock on high maintenance expense and selling on low maintenance expense to flatten out the former price boost from deferred maintenance. So deferring maintenance is a less effective stock market scam now.

I suspect Hunter has only a short list of scams he knows, and he's running *old* scams. The thing about this is that old scams can stop working after a while. I consider it a signifier of a general lack of intelligence to keep running the same scams when the marks are wise to those scams. The smart con man switches to a new scam.


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## Train2104 (Sep 13, 2017)

Update from Amtrak:

https://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer?c=AM_Alert_C&pagename=am/AM_Alert_C/Alerts_Popup&cid=1251656525365

89 resumes tomorrow, 90 resumes Friday, 91/92 resume NYP-JAX on Friday, 52/53/97/98 remain suspended.


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## JRR (Sep 13, 2017)

I was just advised by the Amtrak robo call that my 97 from Wilmington Del to Deerfield Beach on Friday 15th is cancelled. After talking to the agents and checking schedules, it appears that services to and from Miami on the Silver Service trains is cancelled at least until Monday the 18th.


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## jis (Sep 14, 2017)

Looks like FEC has restored skeletal service along its route. They ran at least one train on Wednesday all the way from Bowden Yard (JAX) to Miami at 30mph using track warrants, since many signals are still out.

FPL has brought down the power outage customer numbers to 93,000 from a high of around 250,000 near the end of the storm,in Brevard County. They still claim that they will have power restored to everyone in Brevard County by the end of the upcoming weekend (except small areas that have total destruction of property (e.g. in Palm Bay where the EF0 Tornado touched down).

At least it would be nice to have all the traffic lights back in operation.

TriRail has stated that their recovery efforts are hampered by lack of commercial power. Also they have numerous large trees blocking their tracks that are being removed. The Golden Glades station has been damaged beyond immediate repair and will be bus bridged across (their words, don't know what that means) when service starts in a day or two. This may have some implications for Amtrak - don't know what at present.

The FECRS Annual Convention is still on for weekend after next in Miami (by the Airport). The hotel has confirmed that they are good to go.

People had asked about Brightline. Reports from Brightline are that their stations and their equipment and maintenance facilities came through fine.

Haven't heard anything about SunRail yet, except that they are still down.


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## neroden (Sep 14, 2017)

I'm guessing that Amtrak won't run to Sanford or Orlando until SunRail comes back up (duh, I guess).


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## jis (Sep 14, 2017)

Some more related stuff. ...

Kennedy Space Center Visitors Complex is reopening on the 15th. But there will be no KSC bus tour at least until the 18th since KSC itself is not reopening until the 18th.

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## Train2104 (Sep 14, 2017)

CSX update: https://www.csx.com/index.cfm/customers/news/service-bulletins1/irma-update-csx-restores-operations-into-tampa-fl/

Jacksonville to Tampa is open, but via Ocala, not the route Amtrak uses. Tampa to Okeechobee is open, with service further south awaiting Tri-Rail.


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## FormerOBS (Sep 15, 2017)

AmtrakLKL said:


> A Voice said:
> 
> 
> > Were both Auto Train equipment sets brought north before the storm (else there won't be anything to run 53 on Saturday)? Didn't think there was space at Lorton for that.
> ...


Latest word is that Auto Train service will not resume before Sunday.

Tom


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## jis (Sep 15, 2017)

Which makes sense since the scuttlebutt is that SunRail might be up and running by Monday. But of course we won't know for sure until it actually happens.

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## pennyk (Sep 15, 2017)

jis said:


> Which makes sense since the scuttlebutt is that SunRail might be up and running by Monday. But of course we won't know for sure until it actually happens.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


I hope the scuttlebutt is correct. Here in Orlando, there are still areas without power, but most of them are further "out." The power to the downtown YMCA was restored this morning and it felt good to do my "regular" workout.


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## pennyk (Sep 15, 2017)

Looking at Amtrak.com for trains between ORL and NYP:

9/18: 91 and 97 have coach seats available; 92 and 98 canceled

9/19: 91 and 97 have coach seats and at least one room available; 98 has coach seats and roomettes available; 92 canceled

9/20: 91 and 97 have coach seats and roomettes available; 92 and 98 have coach seats and rooms available.

I hope to travel on 9/24 and I hope the above reflects accurate information that does not change for the worse.


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 15, 2017)

pennyk said:


> Looking at Amtrak.com for trains between ORL and NYP:
> 
> 9/18: 91 and 97 have coach seats available; 92 and 98 canceled
> 
> ...


They're making you sweat it out, Penny. I have confidence 98 will be running on the 24th. You gotta believe.


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## Train2104 (Sep 15, 2017)

Tri-Rail reopens tomorrow.


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## jis (Sep 16, 2017)

pennyk said:


> I hope to travel on 9/24 and I hope the above reflects accurate information that does not change for the worse.


One current unknown is what course of action Maria might decide to take.

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## jis (Sep 16, 2017)

About Tri-Rail ...

http://www.tri-rail.com/service-updates/tri-rail-service-resumes-operation-on-saturday-september-16/

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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 16, 2017)

jis said:


> pennyk said:
> 
> 
> > I hope to travel on 9/24 and I hope the above reflects accurate information that does not change for the worse.
> ...


I think we should set up a GoFundMe for Penny. To pay for her train ticket out on the next Silver northbound and hotel accommodations for her in/near NYC so she can be sure to catch her westbound train. :help:


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## the_traveler (Sep 16, 2017)

Maria is going to "Climb Every Mountain!" and break up before it reaches Florida!


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## jis (Sep 16, 2017)

Actually the long range ensembles have it headed further north with possible landfall between the Carolinas and the Delmarva Peninsula/NJ. But of course things can change a lot over such a long range.

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## jebr (Sep 16, 2017)

jis said:


> Actually the long range ensembles have it headed further north with possible landfall between the Carolinas and the Delmarva Peninsula/NJ. But of course things can change a lot over such a ling range.


So then we need to get her to Chicago ASAP to make sure she makes the Gathering?


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## BillVasi (Sep 16, 2017)

Okay I have called Amtrak three times, each time they tell me that Silver Meteor97 and 98 are cancelled till further notice. Then i call Amtrak and they say it is still running?? I have tickets for the September 22 to go to Orlando florida. So who do I believe about 97 and 98 running???

MODERATOR NOTE: This post was a new topic and was merged by staff into the inclusive existing thread


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 16, 2017)

It's a day to day situation. You should follow this thread for info. It's where those "in the know" will post updates.

http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?/topic/71409-hurricane-irma-and-amtrak/page-8


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## west point (Sep 17, 2017)

Any one know the problem at Sun Rail ? Penny ? Could it be the St Johns river bascule bridge ? The Sun Rail hold up seems to be extensive.


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## pennyk (Sep 17, 2017)

west point said:


> Any one know the problem at Sun Rail ? Penny ? Could it be the St Johns river bascule bridge ? The Sun Rail hold up seems to be extensive.


I do not know, but I am guessing it has to do with St. Johns River flooding and/or power outages along the route.

Edit to add: Jis may know. Although he is in a neighboring county, he knows much more than I do.


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## pennyk (Sep 17, 2017)

This morning I drove to Winter Park (near WPK station) from Orlando on US 17/92. All traffic lights were working and the cross arms at the crossing at the Orlando/Winter Park line were back in place. It looks like that part of the route is ready for service...... unless Maria shows up.


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## Train2104 (Sep 17, 2017)

pennyk said:


> west point said:
> 
> 
> > Any one know the problem at Sun Rail ? Penny ? Could it be the St Johns river bascule bridge ? The Sun Rail hold up seems to be extensive.
> ...


St. John's River would also prevent Auto Train operation, but that's resuming tonight. There must be something between Sanford and Tampa, since we know both CSX and Tri-Rail are up south of Tampa.


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## jis (Sep 17, 2017)

Since SunRail does not normally run on weekends it is hard to say definitively that they are not ready to run on Monday. However, they have said absolutely nothing this way or that since their last message from when they discontinued service for Irma.

If CSX is running from Tampa to West Palm, all we can say is there is some issue between Sanford and Auburndale. But let's wait and see what happens on Monday/Tuesday on SunRail.


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## pennyk (Sep 17, 2017)

From a post by Sunrailriders on FaceBook:



> People keep asking: What's up with SunRail? When will the train start running again?
> We don't know, but our spies tell us that a train was seen on the tracks Sunday in downtown Orlando, so maybe that means they're testing the tracks.
> We reached out to FDOT and they said they hope to let us know later today (Sunday).


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## KnightRail (Sep 17, 2017)

97(18) is planned to run and is bookable Orlando to Miami on Tuesday the 19th. This will reposition the set that has been tied down at Sanford to Miami to resume full service Northbound.


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## Scott Orlando (Sep 17, 2017)

Crews working in Maitland and Fern Park where signals have been dark...


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## pennyk (Sep 17, 2017)

west point said:


> Any one know the problem at Sun Rail ? Penny ? Could it be the St Johns river bascule bridge ? The Sun Rail hold up seems to be extensive.


According to a local news report, SunRail will be running with limited service tomorrow (Monday) and will be free.


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## jis (Sep 18, 2017)

SunRail is indeed running today.

I suspect full Amtrak service restoration will follow on Wednesday and Thursday, though we have heard nothing official so far from Amtrak. Their last advisory as of the time of this posting still remains from Sept 15th.

Even their Twitter and Facebook presence appear to be rather silent on the matter.

Digging into amtrak.com and trying to get tickets suggest that 98 will start running on Wednesday (20th) and 92 on Thursday (21st) out of Miami. 97 and 91 both will start running to Miami from JAX on Wednesday (20th). There will be special ORL - MIA 97 on the 19th as mentioned by KnightRail above.

The good news so far is that Maria is not projected to come to Florida at this time. Though we should be very concerned about Puerto Rico, which it is projected to cross at Category 4 strength. If Jose remains effective enough to do a Fujiwara do-si-do with Maria, then Maria will not come on shore in the lower 48, only a weak Jose will. If not then I suppose Maria could visit some part of the lower 48.


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## Mystic River Dragon (Sep 18, 2017)

I hope Maria goes away. This weekend, I will be traveling down the Northeast Corridor and getting on the Cardinal at Alexandria--I sincerely hope I do not meet Maria coming up as I go down. The 10-day forecast for the weekend has sunny with a northwest breeze, so hope they are right!

On the other hand, putting things in perspective, if I had a missed trip because of the weather, I realize that would be nothing compared to what people directly in the path of these hurricanes have been and will experience.


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## Ryan (Sep 18, 2017)

pennyk said:


> west point said:
> 
> 
> > Any one know the problem at Sun Rail ? Penny ? Could it be the St Johns river bascule bridge ? The Sun Rail hold up seems to be extensive.
> ...





jis said:


> SunRail is indeed running today.


According to the twitter, they're back to regular schedules tomorrow (but still free)...

http://sunrail.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SunRail-Tuesday-Service.pdf


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## pennyk (Sep 18, 2017)

From Amtrak.com:



> Amtrak Restores Atlantic Coast Service to Florida	Trains to resume regular schedules this weekSept. 18, 2017
> 5 p.m. ET
> 
> Amtrak trains to and from Florida will return to regular operations after service was temporarily disrupted due to severe weather.
> ...


----------



## pennyk (Sep 18, 2017)

Ryan said:


> According to the twitter, they're back to regular schedules tomorrow (but still free)...
> 
> http://sunrail.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SunRail-Tuesday-Service.pdf


The local news just confirmed what Ryan just said.


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## west point (Sep 18, 2017)

We can only hope the now newest CAT 5 hurricane Maria will not hit Florida after Irma. A suggestion for all you Florida persons. Keep your car gas tanks close to full until no problem with this latest hurricane.


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## bmjhagen9426 (Sep 18, 2017)

west point said:


> We can only hope the now newest CAT 5 hurricane Maria will not hit Florida after Irma. A suggestion for all you Florida persons. Keep your car gas tanks close to full until no problem with this latest hurricane.


And don't forget about Hurricane Jose (although that will be more of an issue further up north, but potential for issues).


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## AmtrakBlue (Sep 18, 2017)

bmjhagen9426 said:


> west point said:
> 
> 
> > We can only hope the now newest CAT 5 hurricane Maria will not hit Florida after Irma. A suggestion for all you Florida persons. Keep your car gas tanks close to full until no problem with this latest hurricane.
> ...


Jose is already well beyond FL. It will be causing high surf, wind and rain along the mid-Atlantic and northeast. Boston area looks to be where the worst of it will be...until Jose does his loop-de-loop and heads back to the mid-Atlantic.


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## pennyk (Sep 18, 2017)

AmtrakBlue said:


> bmjhagen9426 said:
> 
> 
> > west point said:
> ...


According to our local news weather person, today we got rain from Jose's "back end."


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## west point (Sep 18, 2017)

"IF" Jose ever makes up its mind will NYP - BOS service be affected ?


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## Ryan (Sep 19, 2017)

If he decides to go that way... the forecast tracks from Monday are a bit... jumbled.

Jose has have a bit too much tequila, I believe...


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## jis (Sep 19, 2017)

west point said:


> We can only hope the now newest CAT 5 hurricane Maria will not hit Florida after Irma. A suggestion for all you Florida persons. Keep your car gas tanks close to full until no problem with this latest hurricane.


Even while Irma seemingly changed course many times, none of the new courses were ever outside the original cone of uncertainty. Being far outside the cone of uncertainty gives some confidence about it being highly unlikely. But there is always a chance that things could change seriously. This is true for everyone on the eastern seaboard at this time, not just Florida. So everyone should keep their gas tanks full, in a manner of speaking [emoji57]
The bit about gas tanks is a sarcastic remark in case this was not clear [emoji6]

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## Don Newcomb (Sep 19, 2017)

west point said:


> We can only hope the now newest CAT 5 hurricane Maria will not hit Florida after Irma. A suggestion for all you Florida persons. Keep your car gas tanks close to full until no problem with this latest hurricane.


Anyone who lives in "hurricane alley" should know to not let the tank go below 3/4 whenever a storm is threatening and also keep about 20 gal of gas in cans, just in case. There's something about an actual hurricane warning that magically sucks all the gasoline out of fuel storage tanks.


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## Don Newcomb (Sep 19, 2017)

jis said:


> Even while Irma seemingly changed course many times, none of the new courses were ever outside the original cone of uncertainty. Being far outside the cone of uncertainty gives some confidence about it being highly unlikely. But there is always a chance that things could change seriously. This is true for everyone on the eastern seaboard at this time, not just Florida. So everyone should keep their gas tanks full, in a manner of speaking


I saw one TV meteorologist who made it clear that hurricanes never change course. The hurricane knows exactly where it's going. The only problem is that it hasn't told anyone where that is, so we're left to guess. The hurricane's course doesn't change, only our guesses about it's course change. :wacko:

I suppose it would be equally valid to say that a hurricane doesn't actually have a course and neither it nor we know exactly where it's going, so it's still guesswork. I like the former.


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 19, 2017)

Don Newcomb said:


> west point said:
> 
> 
> > We can only hope the now newest CAT 5 hurricane Maria will not hit Florida after Irma. A suggestion for all you Florida persons. Keep your car gas tanks close to full until no problem with this latest hurricane.
> ...


So are we supposed to just stay home and refuse to go to work because we have to keep our tanks full? Are we're supposed to hoard flammable liquids in our houses and apartments? Or fight with other drivers (and risk a gunshot or two) over the last few drops of petrol? I don't live in "hurricane alley" but 90% of our gas stations ran dry anyway and my car was running on fumes for weeks, just like millions of other people. Rather than wasting time focusing on symptoms with impractical advice maybe we should attack the root cause by implementing mandatory rationing. That would help ensure everyone has enough to take care of business without allowing emotion driven hoarders to decimate the supply.


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## jis (Sep 19, 2017)

Agree with DA. Fortunately the people who actually live in hurricane prone areas are not stupid enough to follow random worthless advice on AU [emoji57]

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## A Voice (Sep 19, 2017)

Devil's Advocate said:


> Don Newcomb said:
> 
> 
> > west point said:
> ...


_Nobody_ said anything about staying home and not driving at all. Rather, I believe the idea is to fill up - when convenient - when the tank drops to 3/4 or so rather than waiting until the low fuel light comes on. Fueling up earlier than usual is not the same thing as hoarding.

The level of advance preparation, policies, and infrastructure necessary to implement an effective and fair system of mandatory rationing could just as easily (and more efficiently) be applied to procedures to rapidly increase the available supply. The usual problem is spot shortages, not a nationwide lack of fuel.

I hope not many people would be so foolish as to store fuel in an apartment, but many people have a few cans for the lawnmower stored (shed., garage, etc.) anyway. if it makes you feel better, there is no harm in keeping those topped up sooner too.


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## Mystic River Dragon (Sep 19, 2017)

In western NJ, Jose right now is bringing us scattered light showers (with the sun out at the same time) and a refreshing breeze.

I wish every hurricane was this well-behaved.

I am really scared about the possibility of Maria coming up here, though, and cancelling trains.


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## jis (Sep 19, 2017)

Surprisingly, extreme outer bands of Jose are bringing us showers off and on in Eastern Florida too. It has a cloud field with a diameter of over 1000 miles now.

In general I tend to ignore hurricanes until the last three days when the actual path and the cone start solidifying, unless I am pat dab in the middle of the 5 day cone, in which case I start worrying about preparing five days in advance in the way of putting together a specific plan -e.g. prepare to evacuate or prepare to hunker down and such. And if evacuate, to where, when and such.

So far nothing has caused me to consider evacuation in the five day or three day advanced plan. It has so far just been prepare to hunker down and act on it.

As far as Maria goes, it is still too far out to be concerned about, since I am nowhere near the five day cone, and the five day projected wind field.

As for gas, I have not used a single cc of the gas that I filled before Irma, so I am good for 650 miles with a fully charged car, which it always is storm or no storm. As soon as it gets into the garage, it gets charged. That should get me well out of Florida and well into the next state if not past it too. I don't think a need will arise unless we are facing a Cat4 or 5 landfall in the immediate vicinity, or expecting winds above 130mph.

The planned trip to Miami for the FECRS Annual Convention on Thursday afternoon is still on. It runs through Sunday. Nothing much is expected from Maria in that time-frame around here.

Current five day wind field projections of Maria are:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL152017_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/145352_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png


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## jebr (Sep 19, 2017)

The gas can debate reminds me of some advice I had heard/seen online regarding the solar eclipse; specifically suggesting to bring a can of gas with you everywhere as there would likely be gas shortages. I had thought about doing so until my wife said that it sounded like a bad idea, which led to further research confirming her gut reaction (especially with a hatchback, having a gas can in the back could cause...issues, especially if there was a crash or something similar.) Wound up just making sure that I was diligent about filling it up once I reached a half-tank, which is my standard practice anyways. Worked out fine, and frankly there were no gas shortages that I came across; sure, gas stations were busy but no shortages or lines to get gas. I can usually get 150 - 200 miles on a half tank, which I'm usually wanting to stop for a stretch break by then anyways (or gets about a week's worth of commuting for my wife and I.)

All this to say that, while it probably doesn't hurt to make sure to have your tank full, I'd be suspect about trying to go too far in stockpiling gas, especially if there's already a shortage of gas in the area. So far, knock on wood, I've never had an issue with filling up around a half-tank, and I've yet to actually run out of gas. Here's hoping that streak continues!


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## jis (Sep 19, 2017)

After Sandy there were some serious gas availability or lack thereof issues in NJ, including even odd license plate based rationing. But it was always possible to drive out to Pennsylvania and fill up to your heart's content.

At least in the area around me both during Matthew and Irma, there was no long term gas shortage beyond an hour here and an hour there at specific gas stations as they got resupplied. Scott turned out to be a much better manager of such emergencies than Christie was in NJ, at least as far as I can see from my vantage point, having lived through Sandy, Matthew and Irma.

In Brevard county the number of customers without power is now down to 230, from a high of over 280,000 8 days back. And those are mostly customers who have other significant issues like being flooded out or manufactured home destroyed by tornado or such.


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## pennyk (Sep 19, 2017)

I was just outdoors not too far from the tracks between WPK and ORL and I think I heard 97!! What a great sound - something I have missed for a while.


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## John Bobinyec (Sep 19, 2017)

97 was supposed to start from Orlando today. Looks like someone has forgotten to initialize it in the tracking system.

jb


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## pennyk (Sep 19, 2017)

John Bobinyec said:


> 97 was supposed to start from Orlando today. Looks like someone has forgotten to initialize it in the tracking system.
> 
> jb


I made the assumption that I heard it coming from Sanford, but I could have been mistaken. Maybe it was a "loud" SunRail train. I wanted it to be 97.


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## jis (Sep 19, 2017)

Penny, be on the lookout for the double barrel 91 tomorrow (20th). 91(19) started from New York today with two consists coupled together head to tail. It is a sixteen car train, and will have two P42s out of Washington according to reports from folks up in the NEC-land. There is a video of it too passing Edison I think.

BTW Maria is now projected to be below Cat 3 974-110mph) when it comes abeam of Florida on Sunday, several hundred miles to the east.


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## pennyk (Sep 19, 2017)

John Bobinyec said:


> 97 was supposed to start from Orlando today. Looks like someone has forgotten to initialize it in the tracking system.
> 
> jb


It looks like 97 is showing up on the Amtrak track a train map now.



jis said:


> Penny, be on the lookout for the double barrel 91 tomorrow (20th). 91(19) started from New York today with two consists coupled together head to tail. It is a sixteen car train, and will have two P42s out of Washington according to reports from folks up in the NEC-land. There is a video of it too passing Edison I think.


Unless 91 is fairly late (but not real late) tomorrow, I will not be around to walk to the tracks to take a look at the unusual sight.


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## jis (Sep 19, 2017)

Looks like 91 is getting three diesels at WAS. so 3 diesels plus 16 cars.

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## Don Newcomb (Sep 20, 2017)

jis said:


> Agree with DA. Fortunately the people who actually live in hurricane prone areas are not stupid enough to follow random worthless advice on AU [emoji57]


I live in a town that was mostly destroyed by Hurricane Katrina and I follow my own advice. I keep about 15 gal of fresh gasoline in cans in my yard shed throughout hurricane season and I'll keep all the cars topped up if a tropical storm is anywhere in the Gulf. Most of the people I know, at least those who have been through a hurricane, do the same.


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## Devil's Advocate (Sep 20, 2017)

A Voice said:


> I believe the idea is to fill up - when convenient - when the tank drops to 3/4 or so rather than waiting until the low fuel light comes on.


When most of the fuel stations in your city are dry, and those with gas are an hour away with an hour wait parked in an active street it's not terribly "convenient" to keep refilling whenever you get below 75% of a fuel tank. In fact it's downright dangerous. My own car was rammed by someone trying to find a way into a gasoline waiting line that was snaking around and clogging up a major intersection.



A Voice said:


> Fueling up earlier than usual is not the same thing as hoarding.


It is when a million people suddenly decide to fill all their cars all at once even when they don't actually need it.



A Voice said:


> The level of advance preparation, policies, and infrastructure necessary to implement an effective and fair system of mandatory rationing could just as easily (and more efficiently) be applied to procedures to rapidly increase the available supply.


Modern gas pumps can be remotely programmed to only allow X gallons to be pumped at a time and/or to only allow a unique payment method to be used every so many hours or days. It's not perfect but it doesn't require expensive new infrastructure and would go a long way toward dissuading casual overbuying and help keep the pumps open and ready for those who actually need it. Whereas the current system results in people filling up rarely used vehicles, truck bed chemical tanks, and even trash cans with fuel.


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## Don Newcomb (Sep 20, 2017)

Devil's Advocate said:


> A Voice said:
> 
> 
> > I believe the idea is to fill up - when convenient - when the tank drops to 3/4 or so rather than waiting until the low fuel light comes on.
> ...


When the fuel stations are dry it's a good sign that you should be already headed out of the area. The northern Gulf Coast is in a much better situation than peninsula Florida. Here we can evacuate in three directions. In the Peninsula there is only one direction out and millions of people who want to use the three or four main routes. It's a very precarious situation only made worse by a population explosion. Otherwise, you need a safe place to ride out the storm away from the coast. A buddy of mine has an all-steel quonset hut on high ground, about 50 miles inland, stocked with camping (survival) supplies. Most homeowners in coastal Mississippi own a generator and a chain saw. This is the sort of thing that people do after they have weathered a serious hurricane or two. The advice to keep three days' supplies became obsolete during Katrina. If you stay, you need to be able to survive a week without resupply.


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## jis (Sep 20, 2017)

So far restoration of Amtrak service to Miami is proceeding according to plan described in earlier posts in this thread..

Also SunRail is back to regular service, as is Tri-Rail.

Things should normalize quite rapidly as far as Amtrak goes, at this point.


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## west point (Sep 20, 2017)

About gasoline. The American Petroleum Institute a few years back estimated the 60 -75 % of all unburned gasoline in he USA was located in auto, boats, lawn mowers, storage cans etc. That is fuel for thought whenever everyone tries to gas up for an approaching hurricane.


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## JoeBas (Sep 21, 2017)

jis said:


> Agree with DA. Fortunately the people who actually live in hurricane prone areas are not stupid enough to follow random worthless advice on AU [emoji57]
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


I live in Southeast Houston, and I fueled up on Saturday morning - the day AFTER Harvey made landfall. Easy peasy.


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## JoeBas (Sep 21, 2017)

Don Newcomb said:


> When the fuel stations are dry it's a good sign that you should be already headed out of the area.


So DA should have headed out of San Antonio, a week after Harvey dissipated??? Interesting... 

Also, there are those of us engaged with EMs, First Responders, and Major Petroleum plants / utilities, for whom "heading out of the area" is not a realistic option. Nor is it an option for those on low-end jobs, or with little financial recourse.

I believe there was a show in the 80's, whose theme song summed this up nicely:

Now, the world don't move to the beat of just one drum, 

What might be right for you, may not be right for some.


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## jis (Sep 21, 2017)

JoeBas said:


> Don Newcomb said:
> 
> 
> > When the fuel stations are dry it's a good sign that you should be already headed out of the area.
> ...


The general advice from Florida Emergency Management for Irma was to evacuate from evacuation areas and mobile/manufactured homes to safe places within 10/15 miles and not two states away. The emphasis was on moving to 2004 building code buildings preferably. We who live in safer structures volunteered to take in some folks if necessary, and between the shelters and volunteers a very significant part of the evacuation was absorbed locally in the area. Of course there was still a huge crowd that headed to friends and relatives out of state more so along the I-75 corridor than the I-95 corridor, perhaps because people thought that the storm will go up the I-95 corridor. It of course had other ideas.

For whatever reason, partly by plan and partly accidentally and partly due to sheer good luck, the event was managed relatively effectively by the government agencies and volunteers working cooperatively, at least this time around in Florida. The mandatory evacuations were much more effective this time around specially in the areas that got thrashed by Matthew last year, and power was restored remarkably quickly after a Cat 4/3 hit running right up the middle of the peninsula, which has generally been characterized as the worst nightmare.

Specifically in the Space Coast we never had even a day long gas shortage. There were sporadic several hours worth of gas outage in clumps of gas stations here and there. But they were resupplied relatively quickly as tankers unloaded in whatever port was available at that time, and tanker trucks with LEO escorts were dispatched to areas of outage expeditiously. Maximum power outage in Brevard County was immediately after the storm, and it involved some 280,000+ out of a total of some 310,000 customers. The number of customers without power was brought down to below 200 within 9 days after the end of the storm, and those are basically ones that had their property destroyed either by the multitude of Tornadoes that touched down at random places, and in areas flooded out by the St. Johns River. Properly shuttered 2004 building code houses apparently fared rather well even in the face of EF0 tornadoes which are typical in such storms.


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## Green Maned Lion (Sep 21, 2017)

Personally I think people should head out of Texas on general principle.


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## Bob Dylan (Sep 21, 2017)

Green Maned Lion said:


> Personally I think people should head out of Texas on general principle.


You are correct except as pertains to the Peoples Republic of Austin and Sam Antonio Lion!


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## Don Newcomb (Sep 21, 2017)

west point said:


> About gasoline. The American Petroleum Institute a few years back estimated the 60 -75 % of all unburned gasoline in he USA was located in auto, boats, lawn mowers, storage cans etc. That is fuel for thought whenever everyone tries to gas up for an approaching hurricane.


My neighbor's emergency gasoline storage is his trailered fishing boat. I don't have a boat, well not a motor boat, so I keep a rotating stock of gasoline cans in my yard shed.



JoeBas said:


> So DA should have headed out of San Antonio, a week after Harvey dissipated??? Interesting...
> 
> Also, there are those of us engaged with EMs, First Responders, and Major Petroleum plants / utilities, for whom "heading out of the area" is not a realistic option. Nor is it an option for those on low-end jobs, or with little financial recourse.........


My cousin in Miami is married to a surgeon. Evacuation was not an option for him so their emergency plan included staying in a hurricane-resistant building. That was a perfectly good plan and they came through Irma just fine. What's not a good plan is not having a plan, expecting the government to take care of everything or waking up at the last moment and panicking. Failure to plan is planning to fail.


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## A Voice (Sep 21, 2017)

Don Newcomb said:


> Failure to plan is planning to fail.


Well, at least we're back on topic for Amtrak.....


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## Green Maned Lion (Sep 21, 2017)

No, planning to fail is planning to fail e.g. NJT in Sandy. Failing to plan is just stupidity.


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## JoeBas (Sep 21, 2017)

Don Newcomb said:


> What's not a good plan is not having a plan, expecting the government to take care of everything or waking up at the last moment and panicking. Failure to plan is planning to fail.


You rip that straw man up! Tear him to shreds!!!


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## jis (Sep 21, 2017)

A Voice said:


> Don Newcomb said:
> 
> 
> > Failure to plan is planning to fail.
> ...


ROTFL!

Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


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## JayPea (Sep 21, 2017)

A Voice said:


> Don Newcomb said:
> 
> 
> > Failure to plan is planning to fail.
> ...


If you want, we can veer off onto the topic of college basketball. That quote was one of legendary UCLA head coach John Wooden's favorites.


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## neroden (Sep 21, 2017)

west point said:


> About gasoline. The American Petroleum Institute a few years back estimated the 60 -75 % of all unburned gasoline in he USA was located in auto, boats*, lawn mowers*, storage cans etc. That is fuel for thought whenever everyone tries to gas up for an approaching hurricane.


Blech. Everyone should have switched to battery-electric lawn tools by now. They're strictly superior to gas-powered lawn tools and are available in all sizes now. (Admittedly, the full sized riding mowers are still pretty expensive, but everything else is price comparable.)

Small boats should also be using electric. There are very nice outboard electric motors and several marine electric conversion companies.


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## jis (Sep 21, 2017)

Clearly all this has a lot to do with Hurricane Irma and Amtrak [emoji57]

Sent from my iPhone using Amtrak Forum


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## neroden (Sep 22, 2017)

It's called "holistic thinking".


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