# David Gunn says "VIA Rail Dying"



## jis

The article is at a subscription only site. But it has been excerpted on a thread at Trainorders. So I give you the pointer to the Trainorders forum:

http://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?4,3187165

Hopefully it won't upset the powers that be.

He makes some cogent points about the very different approaches taken by the management of VIA and Amtrak, and does not have too many kind things to say about VIA management except for their onboard service, which like many of us, he is all praises for.


----------



## SubwayNut

What a good article.

Makes me realize I need to ride more of VIA (I've just done the Canadian and a couple short corridor rides) before its all gone.


----------



## Bob Dylan

SubwayNut said:


> What a good article.
> 
> Makes me realize I need to ride more of VIA (I've just done the Canadian and a couple short corridor rides) before its all gone.


True this!  Everyone who has The Ocean and the Canadian on their Bucket List should Book it soon as they can get a Good Fare,(Express or 50% Off) it looks like all that will be left of VIA will be Reduced Service on the Windsor to Quebec City Corridor with a fewTrains to Ottawa!  This Country isnt the only one where Wing Nuts Bash Rail!!! :help:


----------



## the_traveler

Same here. I've only done Montreal-Ottawa a few times.

And we complain about the Cardinal and SL "only" operating 3 days a week? :huh: The 2 (essentially) cross Canada trains (the Canadian and the Ocean) operate on that schedule. Or even less at certain times of the year.

I do think VIA will be the next Mexico.


----------



## The Davy Crockett

So... a mini X-Canada Gathering may be in order? I'm already P.O.ed at myself for not getting to Gaspe'...

But then this is David Gunn, who did SO much for Amtrak talking...


----------



## Swadian Hardcore

Too bad I don't have the money to be riding VIA all the time. I guess I could find the money to afford it, but I'm travelling international soon and those trips burn up the cash. Now I'm forced to cut back on domestic trips and save money when I can. This explain why I'm riding buses so much, etc, but it's not bad enough to force me into becoming a Van Hool Fool!

Anyways, VIA Rail has done very few things to improve their network. Sure, they have great service, but the CPR and CNR they inherited also had similar high levels of services. OTOH, VIA Rail has been cutting trains all over the place and has no expanded at all. Their equipment is either old, unreliable, or both.

The only way to save something of the network is to make as many tourist trains as possible. Obviously the Canadian would be great for that. The Skeena is running for pleasure anyway, they have a overnight in Prince George. The Hudson Bay could turn into essential service with a fun northern twist. The Ocean might become something like the Canadian, or that train will get cut too.

It's obvious that Canada has no train culture. Frankly, nor does the US, but at least Amtrak is physically doing better. That train culture is rampant in Germany or India, where trains run with extreme support and virtually no obstacles.

I like Gunn's candidcy. He's straight to the point. As I've said time and again, Canada could become the next Mexico if they don't wake up from their crazy dreams. Dave Gunn is pretty good at arguing, and I fully agree, VIA Rail is dying and I don't think it's to stop.


----------



## Nathanael

jimhudson said:


> True this!  Everyone who has The Ocean and the Canadian on their Bucket List should Book it soon as they can get a Good Fare,(Express or 50% Off) it looks like all that will be left of VIA will be Reduced Service on the Windsor to Quebec City Corridor with a fewTrains to Ottawa!


I doubt that even that will survive. VIA is shrinking to the point where it's too small to function.
I suspect that when VIA is shut down entirely, either Ontario or Toronto will pay the bill to keep Amtrak's Maple Leaf running. At this point, I don't see anything else surviving. It's possible some of the lost Ontario services will be taken over by GO, and it's possible that some of the remote services will be handed to First Nations or some such.

But barring a massive change in government, I don't see how the Toronto-Montreal services will survive. First all the branches will be cut (Quebec City, Sarnia, Windsor), then all trains will be routed via Ottawa (slowing down Toronto-Montreal times), and then there won't even be enough money for that and the whole operation will shut down.

Of course, under the Canadian system, a sudden massive change of government *is* a possibility.


----------



## Trogdor

The Davy Crockett said:


> So... a mini X-Canada Gathering may be in order? I'm already P.O.ed at myself for not getting to Gaspe'...
> 
> But then this is David Gunn, who did SO much for Amtrak talking...


Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or what, but Gunn is the one that took over Amtrak when it was about six weeks away from shutting down due to lack of cash, convinced a hostile DOT secretary to give Amtrak a loan to finish out the fiscal year, set the record straight regarding the foolishness and delusion that the previous management had said about being on a "glidepath to self-sufficiency", restarted railcar wreck repair and refurbishment programs at Beech Grove that had been mothballed for years, pretty much kept the network intact (except for the Three Rivers and one Florida frequency, for which Amtrak really didn't have adequate equipment to run anyway) during a time when most railfans were writing the obituary to all long-distance passenger train service in the US, got rid of the money-losing and train-delaying express freight program (I suppose it's debatable whether killing mail was a good move), and only got fired for refusing to play along with a plan to privatize the NEC infrastructure.

So, yeah, I'd say he did quite a lot for Amtrak.


----------



## SubwayNut

Gunn is a rescuer of public transportation before Amtrak he was a savior of the NYC Subway reducing graffiti and and beginning the Capital Programs to get our subway back into good repair, he tried to do the same thing on the TTC and I think rescued Amtrak as well. I still remember feeling extremely mad when Bush's board pushed him out of his job for Amtrak.


----------



## Swadian Hardcore

You know, Gunn did a great job rescuing Amtrak from Warrington. Warrington made Amtrak into an awful quagmire that Gunn fixed up. Gunn is a good guy to me, he's effective and straightforward. He's saying the right thing about VIA Rail. I full agree with him and a lot of stuff he's said/done before. He's the old that flaty told Congress, "Amtrak will never make a profit." That was taking Amtrak to stand up against everything else that also needs subsides, albiet indirect subsides. If Gunn suddenly became head of VIA Rail, maybe things would make a turn for the better. Right now VIA Rail is self-destructing.


----------



## afigg

Ok, if you were put in charge of VIA Rail, what would you do to make it a healthy operation? My impression is that the current government is not hostile to VIA, just indifferent to it and not very interested in the services to the providences outside of the Quebec-Montreal-Toronto-Windsor corridor. I have not followed VIA closely, but the Canadian govt has provided capital funds for upgrades to the corridor routes.

So, facing an indifferent national government, are there possibilities for more support from the Provincial, municipal, and local governments? Can the corridor services be improved without major capital investments? What can VIA do to grow ridership?

Amtrak is in healthier shape and if it can get the pass the next several years of Congress intact, will be expanding corridor services. Are there possibilities for VIA to work more closely with Amtrak with cross-border agreements that will provide protection against arbitrary cuts by the Canadian government? There is an effort underway to possibly restore Chicago-Toronto service which has gotten verbal support from the Michigan Governor. Years away from anything happening, but VIA could benefit from it. Any opportunities to leverage off improved Adirondack and extended Vermonter service to Montreal?

The Amtrak LD trains are doing ok with robust ridership. What lessons can VIA take from the Amtrak LD trains?


----------



## Anderson

It's plausible that VIA could solicit support from Ontario, Quebec, and/or BC at some point. The main issue is that enough of their services cross provincial lines to make such solicitations problematic.


----------



## fairviewroad

Save VIA:

1. Throw ALL your eggs in the Montreal-Toronto basket. Higher speeds, more frequencies. Create an "Acela"-like premium

service. Canada might not have a train culture but business travelers in that corridor will know and appreciate the value of

a high-quality rail shuttle between two very important cities. Do everything you can to make the public think of Montreal-

Toronto as being the Canadian version of the NEC.

2. Allow a few of those eggs to spill over into services such as Ottawa, Windsor, Quebec City. Model them after Amtrak's

Chicago-region service...one or two or three daily, with cafe car, BC, etc. I realize that's kind of how it is now, but that's

fine.

3. Sorry, but ditch the Ocean. Tell the Atlantic provinces if they want a local, regional train to fund it themselves. But 3x a week

to Montreal on a slow, circuitous route serves no one well.

4. As soon as possible, turn over all your oddball "essential" routes to the First Nations, or the highest bidder. If they want the

service to continue to operate under the VIA system, allow them to pay VIA for that. But get it off the VIA books.

5. Recognize the Canadian for what it is: a tourist train. Run it daily between Vancouver and Edmonton, with a schedule

timed for maximum Rockies scenery.

6. Bring your website into the 21st Century.


----------



## gaspeamtrak

The Davy Crockett said:


> So... a mini X-Canada Gathering may be in order? I'm already P.O.ed at myself for not getting to Gaspe'...
> 
> But then this is David Gunn, who did SO much for Amtrak talking...


Yes you should have ridden the Gaspe train! :angry2: Bad. only joking

I have heard from people down the coast they are still working on the bridges in Sandybeach/Haldimand,just outside of Gaspe and a few other bridges in Barchois and a few more towards Perce.

They have spent over $25 million on the line over the five years with all the flooding and other stuff that has been happening.

I even heard they had started rebuilding the 1960's Gaspe station which burnt down a few years ago.

Don't give on my Gaspe train just quite yet!

As for the management at Via Rail in Montreal they seem to be only concerned with the corridor and nothing else! :angry2:

I will stop bashing Via Rail management now before I get into trouble with the moderator here.

It will be back!


----------



## The Davy Crockett

gaspeamtrak said:


> The Davy Crockett said:
> 
> 
> 
> So... a mini X-Canada Gathering may be in order? I'm already P.O.ed at myself for not getting to Gaspe'...
> 
> But then this is David Gunn, who did SO much for Amtrak talking...
> 
> 
> 
> Yes you should have ridden the Gaspe train! :angry2: Bad. only joking
> 
> I have heard from people down the coast they are still working on the bridges in Sandybeach/Haldimand,just outside of Gaspe and a few other bridges in Barchois and a few more towards Perce.
> 
> They have spent over $25 million on the line over the five years with all the flooding and other stuff that has been happening.
> 
> I even heard they had started rebuilding the 1960's Gaspe station which burnt down a few years ago.
> 
> Don't give on my Gaspe train just quite yet!
> 
> As for the management at Via Rail in Montreal they seem to be only concerned with the corridor and nothing else! :angry2:
> 
> I will stop bashing Via Rail management now before I get into trouble with the moderator here.
> 
> It will be back!
Click to expand...

Thanks for that! I'll take a hiatus from being POed at myself for a while.


----------



## jis

So basically what is apparently being recommended is a Canadian version of PRIIA Section 209 with no distance limit, while exempting the Toronto - Montreal corridor. The reality is that Ottawa and Quebec City will need to be part o that corridor mix for it to have sufficient support to be feasible at all.


----------



## Bob Dylan

I agree with the concept of VIA making the Windsor/Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal/Quebec City City (Politics make this necessary as jis said)Corridor a Great White North version of the NEC!

I disagree with dropping the Ocean (maybe only run it during the Summer) and making the Canadian a Rival for the Privately owned Rocky Mountaineer running only between Vancouver and Edmonton/Calgary!) Also I find the VIA web site via.ca to be easier to use and more informative than Amtrak.com, no need to change it unless the Graphics were to be improved! (Maybe on of our AUers that does this workcould get the contract!  )Also VIA needs to work with the Ottawa Politicians and the CN Suits to ensure better Time Keeping for the Canadian, it makes the Empire Builder look like HSR ! :help:

My Own Proposal (not original here by any means) is for VIA to Lease or even Sell Sleepers, Domes , Diners and Park Cars tio Amtrak for use of our Tourist Trains and "Specials"/Excursions during the Spring, Fall and Winter when the Canadian and Ocean are cut down to Shorter Consists and Less Frequent Runs! ( the Adirondack, Cardinal, LSL,CL and All of the Western Trains would really Benefit from this!

Also Amtrak might want to look into hiring some VIA Trainers and if possible even Layed Off/Retired OBS Staff to Train their Employees in Customer Service!

I Love Amtrak and VIA, and as has been said, if you havent taken your Bucket list Trips yet on Both, Please do so ASAP, Catch 'em before they're Gone!


----------



## Ispolkom

Here's one problem with saving VIa Rail's long-distance lines: the nature of Canada's Parliament. The House of Commons is elected by equal-population districts. Sounds fair, but the continuation of Amtrak's long-distance lines has often, I think, depended on U.S. Senators, who disproportionately represent small-population states west of the Mississippi. This would make it easier for any Canadian government to abandon all routes outside of an Ontario-Quebec corridor.

I'm glad that I rode the Canadian when I did (and am sorry I never rode it on the CP route), and hope to ride the Ocean before it disappears. Alas, next year I'm focusing on Scandinavian trains.


----------



## fairviewroad

jimhudson said:


> I disagree with dropping the Ocean (maybe only run it during the Summer) and making the Canadian a Rival for the Privately owned Rocky Mountaineer running only between Vancouver and Edmonton/Calgary!)


Fair point about the Canadian. Perhaps if you wanted to distinguish it from a pure tourist train you could have it run all the way to Winnipeg. The problem

with the Canadian is that it is just an incredibly long route and it's hard to make a public service case for running it all the way from Toronto to Vancouver,

a journey that takes a very long time and costs a lot of money. And really it's only the western third that is the draw for leisure travelers. Yes, the Canadian

does serve tiny out-of-the-way communities but honestly, many of those "stations" are flag stops that have (I bet) just a couple of dozen passengers _per year._


----------



## Bob Dylan

fairviewroad said:


> jimhudson said:
> 
> 
> 
> I disagree with dropping the Ocean (maybe only run it during the Summer) and making the Canadian a Rival for the Privately owned Rocky Mountaineer running only between Vancouver and Edmonton/Calgary!)
> 
> 
> 
> Fair point about the Canadian. Perhaps if you wanted to distinguish it from a pure tourist train you could have it run all the way to Winnipeg. The problem
> 
> with the Canadian is that it is just an incredibly long route and it's hard to make a public service case for running it all the way from Toronto to Vancouver,
> 
> a journey that takes a very long time and costs a lot of money. And really it's only the western third that is the draw for leisure travelers. Yes, the Canadian
> 
> does serve tiny out-of-the-way communities but honestly, many of those "stations" are flag stops that have (I bet) just a couple of dozen passengers _per year._
Click to expand...

:hi: Excellent point about Winnipeg, and if VIA would move the Canadian back to the Southern Route to/from Calgary/Vancouver through Banff it would be the Perfect Solution!


----------



## Swadian Hardcore

If I were VIA, I would have a choice to make: A useful trnapsort system or a cruise train? Right now VIA is cut in between, and they're not getting any good from either side. I think the Corridor and its entensions will become a useful transport system, essential services whill be as they are, and the Canadian, Ocean, and Skeena will all become land cruises, possibly under a different name than VIA Rail.

I find one thing hilarious on VIA's website: "Affordable fares. I'm in, are you?"


----------



## railiner

(deleted account could not edit quotes without eliminating them entirely) I haven't figured out how to do that yet......


----------



## railiner

Nathanael said:


> jimhudson said:
> 
> 
> 
> True this!  Everyone who has The Ocean and the Canadian on their Bucket List should Book it soon as they can get a Good Fare,(Express or 50% Off) it looks like all that will be left of VIA will be Reduced Service on the Windsor to Quebec City Corridor with a fewTrains to Ottawa!
> 
> 
> 
> I doubt that even that will survive. VIA is shrinking to the point where it's too small to function.
> I suspect that when VIA is shut down entirely, either Ontario or Toronto will pay the bill to keep Amtrak's Maple Leaf running.
Click to expand...

I suspect that in that case, Amtrak would run the Maple Leaf on its own, all the way to Toronto, with or without Canadian funding.....


----------



## NS VIA Fan

I don’t think you’ll see VIA’s Corridor operations disappear anytime soon. Trains have been added on the “core” Corridor routes between Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec City. From Montreal to Quebec City, there’s now 5 trains per day each way and between Montreal and Ottawa, now 7 per day each way. Over the past couple of years several new stations have been constructed and there’s been about 70km of triple tracking added to avoid freight interference so speeds and trains can be increased.

Key corridor populations are Toronto 5.4 million, Montreal 3.7m, Ottawa 1.0m and Quebec City 0.7m. It’s 500 km from Toronto to Montreal with several cities between but it would probably still be considered rural compared to the US…… and nowhere near the population density to maintain a frequency like Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor. 



Canada has a total population of about 34 million. In 2012 VIA carried 3.9 million passengers or slightly more than 10% of the population.

The US has a population of about 317 million. Amtrak carried 31.2 million passengers last year so slightly less than 10% of the population.

VIA cut trains outside of the core corridor routes that were little used. The one exception might have been the Moncton-Montreal portion of the Ocean. The Halifax portion long ago ceased as a viable inter-city function. People just fly: 2 hr to central Canada vs: 24 on the train. Gaspe and Victoria trains disappeared due to track conditions beyond VIA’s control.

And on the Niagara Falls and Kitchener routes it was the passengers who abandon VIA after GO Transit added a more frequent and cheaper service even if some schedules involved a train-bus transfer. The morning VIA train into Toronto lost about half its passengers after GO started.


----------



## railiner

NS VIA Fan said:


> And on the Niagara Falls and Kitchener routes it was the passengers who abandon VIA after GO Transit added a more frequent and cheaper service even if some schedules involved a train-bus transfer. The morning VIA train into Toronto lost about half its passengers after GO started.


That morning train from Niagara Falls to Toronto would do just fine if Amtrak would extend one of their Empire Service trains overnite from NYP to connect (actually replace) it....


----------



## jis

It is not For Amtrak to decide that anymore. That becomes a New York State funded train come 1st October.


----------



## fairviewroad

railiner said:


> Nathanael said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jimhudson said:
> 
> 
> 
> True this!  Everyone who has The Ocean and the Canadian on their Bucket List should Book it soon as they can get a Good Fare,(Express or 50% Off) it looks like all that will be left of VIA will be Reduced Service on the Windsor to Quebec City Corridor with a fewTrains to Ottawa!
> 
> 
> 
> I doubt that even that will survive. VIA is shrinking to the point where it's too small to function.
> I suspect that when VIA is shut down entirely, either Ontario or Toronto will pay the bill to keep Amtrak's Maple Leaf running.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I suspect that in that case, Amtrak would run the Maple Leaf on its own, all the way to Toronto, with or without Canadian funding.....
Click to expand...

I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another

Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing

hassle.


----------



## jis

fairviewroad said:


> railiner said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nathanael said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jimhudson said:
> 
> 
> 
> True this!  Everyone who has The Ocean and the Canadian on their Bucket List should Book it soon as they can get a Good Fare,(Express or 50% Off) it looks like all that will be left of VIA will be Reduced Service on the Windsor to Quebec City Corridor with a fewTrains to Ottawa!
> 
> 
> 
> I doubt that even that will survive. VIA is shrinking to the point where it's too small to function.
> I suspect that when VIA is shut down entirely, either Ontario or Toronto will pay the bill to keep Amtrak's Maple Leaf running.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I suspect that in that case, Amtrak would run the Maple Leaf on its own, all the way to Toronto, with or without Canadian funding.....
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another
> 
> Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing
> 
> hassle.
Click to expand...

Come 1st October, that is not a decision for Amtrak to make, since by PRIIA 209 the Maple Leaf is a New York State train, not an Amtrak System train.


----------



## railiner

I don't quite get the purpose of this PRIIA......is it a sort of back-door method of breaking Amtrak up into a bunch of state operated 'railroads', kind of like Amtrak California?

Is this what Amtrak wants, or is it something being imposed on Amtrak by the government?

Whatever happened to the old way, the "403b" method of states paying Amtrak to operate additional short distance trains? Is it a matter of each state bureaucracy wanting to "build their own empire"?


----------



## jis

Mind you.... what follows here is my interpretation of the events that I see unfolding. One should be free to disagree completely with it, but IMHO the current series of events fit this hypothesis.....

The writing that I see on the wall is that PRIIA 209 happened as a compromise to save the LD trains, which were targeted to be zeroed out. The deal was that the cost of short distance trains would be transferred to the states in exchange for continuing federal funds for the LD trains for the time being, though not quite stated in so many words. But effectively that is what happened at the last round of authorization. Amtrak kept its side of the bargain by asking for a smaller federal subsidy for 2014 operations. We wait with baited breath to see what will happen at the next round.

The basic direction is to progressively remove all direct federal funding (not supported by dedicated user fees) in its present form as clearly identifiable funding for Amtrak from the Fed DOT. Notwithstanding the fond belief of some that Amtrak intends to transfer all funding to NEC, which BTW, Amtrak cannot do all by itself anyway, there are other sections in PRIIA that requires Amtrak with the states in question, to come up with a formula for charging the real cost of maintaining the NEC to all the users of NEC with the goal of progressively reducing direct federal subsidy to zero. That is what created the NEC Commission.

There are multiple proposals floating around in various congressional circles about how federal loan guarantees and such can be leveraged to pull in additional non-federal funding to fund things like HSR and State of Good Repair for the NEC etc. That is the long term direction, whether we like it or not. The powers that be seem to have arrived at the conclusion that given the current and foreseeable budgetary situation it will be hard to come up with the kind of money needed to fully fund passenger rail purely from federal full grants, and hence the search for alternatives. PRIIA took the first steps in that direction. We can choose to either understand what is going on, embrace it and come up with solutions within this new evolving (it is no means final what will happen eventually) framework, or stick our head in the sand and wait for the inevitable. One just has to look north of the border to see a sneak preview.

It is mostly a case of a federal government that is truly broke and incapable of fulfilling all its obligations with the resources available to it given the taxing environment present today.


----------



## fairviewroad

jis said:


> fairviewroad said:
> 
> 
> 
> I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another
> 
> Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing
> 
> hassle.
> 
> 
> 
> Come 1st October, that is not a decision for Amtrak to make, since by PRIIA 209 the Maple Leaf is a New York State train, not an Amtrak System train.
Click to expand...

Regardless of who controls the purse strings, I think the same outcome would occur if the VIA discontinued its operation of the

Canadian portion of the Maple Leaf. But hopefully we won't have the chance to find out.


----------



## CHamilton

The "Warren Buffett of Canada" is buying BlackBerry. Maybe he'll buy VIA for dessert.


----------



## Trogdor

railiner said:


> I don't quite get the purpose of this PRIIA......is it a sort of back-door method of breaking Amtrak up into a bunch of state operated 'railroads', kind of like Amtrak California?
> 
> Is this what Amtrak wants, or is it something being imposed on Amtrak by the government?
> 
> Whatever happened to the old way, the "403b" method of states paying Amtrak to operate additional short distance trains? Is it a matter of each state bureaucracy wanting to "build their own empire"?


403b went away with Amtrak's original authorization, which expired in the late 1990s (1996-ish, I'm thinking).

Ever since then, it has been up to Amtrak negotiating individual deals with states, and, from what I understand, each of those was different depending on what Amtrak and the individual state agreed to. Now, with PRIIA, Amtrak has to have a standard method of charging, and the states have to pay the full cost for the service.


----------



## Ryan

jis said:


> It is mostly a case of a federal government that is truly broke and incapable of fulfilling all its obligations with the resources available to it given the taxing environment present today.


This is the bottom line. Until this gets fixed, all bets are off (with far more than Amtrak, but that's outside the scope here).


----------



## Bob Dylan

CHamilton said:


> The "Warren Buffett of Canada" is buying BlackBerry. Maybe he'll buy VIA for dessert.


 :hi: ^_^


----------



## railiner

Ryan said:


> jis said:
> 
> 
> 
> It is mostly a case of a federal government that is truly broke and incapable of fulfilling all its obligations with the resources available to it given the taxing environment present today.
> 
> 
> 
> This is the bottom line. Until this gets fixed, all bets are off (with far more than Amtrak, but that's outside the scope here).
Click to expand...

It all sounds pessimistic but also realistic.....will just have to wait and see.


----------



## Swadian Hardcore

About the Niagara Falls trains, Amtrak may want to contract with GO Transit for thruway connections to Toronto from across the border. That way Amtrak can gain more New York-Toronto passengers without adding another train.


----------



## Devil's Advocate

the_traveler said:


> I do think VIA will be the next [Ferrocarriles Nacionales de México]


That would be my guess as well.

There are folks who continue to believe that VIA remains healthy.

Despite being dependent upon a relatively hostile government.

The crux of their position seems to revolve around singing the virtues of inertia.

I'm not sure I can imagine a less persuasive defense if I tried.

No telling when this may come to pass but the writing is on the wall in my view.

If you're planning to ride VIA in the future I'd do it now before the next budget battle.


----------



## Nathanael

NS VIA Fan said:


> VIA cut trains outside of the core corridor routes that were little used. The one exception might have been the Moncton-Montreal portion of the Ocean. The Halifax portion long ago ceased as a viable inter-city function.


Seems to be true. But three-a-week is throwing away the Moncton market; Amtrak found out what a bad idea three-a-week was some years ago.



> And on the Niagara Falls and Kitchener routes it was the passengers who abandon VIA after GO Transit added a more frequent and cheaper service even if some schedules involved a train-bus transfer. The morning VIA train into Toronto lost about half its passengers after GO started.


There is no such excuse for the London, Sarnia or Windsor cuts. And the complaints were loudest in London and Sarnia, which have been left without usefully scheduled service. Surely, if VIA had been properly managed, they could have retained a functional "day trip" schedule from Sarnia.


----------



## Nathanael

fairviewroad said:


> I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another
> 
> Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing
> 
> hassle.


From what I've heard, there's high demand from people going the whole way, Toronto to New York City.


----------



## Nathanael

jis said:


> It is mostly a case of a federal government that is truly broke and incapable of fulfilling all its obligations with the resources available to it given the taxing environment present today.


I would say a government where Congress *chooses* not to fulfill all its obligations (this is a disagreement on economics; the federal government cannot be broke as long as it can print money, which it still can, so it is not broke), but the result for Amtrak is much the same.


----------



## Anderson

Nathanael said:


> fairviewroad said:
> 
> 
> 
> I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another
> 
> Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing
> 
> hassle.
> 
> 
> 
> From what I've heard, there's high demand from people going the whole way, Toronto to New York City.
Click to expand...

Without prejudice to the accuracy of the data (or not), if this _is_ the case, then would it be feasible to set up something like Amtrak wants to at MTR at TWO as well? Especially with VIA basically out of the corridor TWO-Niagara, it might just make sense to ram the train through non-stop.


----------



## fairviewroad

Anderson said:


> Nathanael said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fairviewroad said:
> 
> 
> 
> I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another
> 
> Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing
> 
> hassle.
> 
> 
> 
> From what I've heard, there's high demand from people going the whole way, Toronto to New York City.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Without prejudice to the accuracy of the data (or not), if this _is_ the case, then would it be feasible to set up something like Amtrak wants to at MTR at TWO as well? Especially with VIA basically out of the corridor TWO-Niagara, it might just make sense to ram the train through non-stop.
Click to expand...

Right. If VIA truly exits that corridor, then Amtrak/New York State isn't going to want to maintain the intermediate stations with the

possible exception of NFS. Of course, maintaining NFS would eliminate the possibility of pre-clearance in TWO. However, I think

it's a long shot due to the distance between TWO and the border...it makes it a much different scenario than in MTR and VAC and

I'd doubt that US CBP would be comfortable agreeing to a "sealed train" over that length.


----------



## railiner

fairviewroad said:


> Anderson said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nathanael said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fairviewroad said:
> 
> 
> 
> I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another
> 
> Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing
> 
> hassle.
> 
> 
> 
> From what I've heard, there's high demand from people going the whole way, Toronto to New York City.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Without prejudice to the accuracy of the data (or not), if this _is_ the case, then would it be feasible to set up something like Amtrak wants to at MTR at TWO as well? Especially with VIA basically out of the corridor TWO-Niagara, it might just make sense to ram the train through non-stop.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Right. If VIA truly exits that corridor, then Amtrak/New York State isn't going to want to maintain the intermediate stations with the
> 
> possible exception of NFS. Of course, maintaining NFS would eliminate the possibility of pre-clearance in TWO. However, I think
> 
> it's a long shot due to the distance between TWO and the border...it makes it a much different scenario than in MTR and VAC and
> 
> I'd doubt that US CBP would be comfortable agreeing to a "sealed train" over that length.
Click to expand...

They could do it if they had a border official or two ride between Toronto and the border to insure the 'integrity' of the train. They used to run the Niagara Rainbow 'closed doors' all the way from Buffalo to Detroit at one time, didn't they? And conversely, the Atlantic Limited across Maine, although that train did make a handful of Maine stops....


----------



## Nathanael

fairviewroad said:


> Of course, maintaining NFS would eliminate the possibility of pre-clearance in TWO.


Well... I suppose, actually, you could have pre-clearance in both Niagara Falls, Canada and in Toronto, and simply not carry local passengers between Niagara Falls and Toronto. There's enough room on the Niagara Falls station site to set that up.


----------



## Anderson

Niagara Falls, ON-TWO is 82 miles. Niagara Falls, NY-TWO is 84 miles. Lacolle-MTR 48 miles, RSP-MTR 49 miles. Yes, there's a difference between the two, but it doesn't seem insurmountably long.

And I do agree that having two preclearance stops seems likely...after all,the Niagara Falls stations are close enough to the border to staff a setup there from the border.


----------



## fairviewroad

Anderson said:


> Niagara Falls, ON-TWO is 82 miles. Niagara Falls, NY-TWO is 84 miles. Lacolle-MTR 48 miles, RSP-MTR 49 miles. Yes, there's a difference between the two, but it doesn't seem insurmountably long.
> 
> And I do agree that having two preclearance stops seems likely...after all,the Niagara Falls stations are close enough to the border to staff a setup there from the border.


Fair points (and I did consider the two pre-clearance option). But it's worth noting that the MTR preclearance is not actually open yet, and has taken years and years to get even to this point. If VIA were to drop their NFS run, it would be well into the next decade before there'd be a pre-clearance in TWO even under the most optimistic timeline.


----------

