# Post-vaccine Amtrak travel



## Rasputin (Nov 13, 2020)

If the moderators feel this should be moved to another thread, please do so.

It appears that we will have a COVID-19 vaccine in a few months although it will probably not be widely available for some time. A significant section of the population has indicated that they have no interest in receiving the vaccine. 

So I am wondering how the availability of the vaccine will affect Amtrak travel (and perhaps travel in general). In a few months will people who have received the vaccine start traveling by Amtrak in large numbers? Will the likelihood that vaccinated passengers will be traveling on the same train with unvaccinated passengers discourage travel? 

I listened to a conference call yesterday from an organization that is planning a national conference in-person in Arizona in May 2021. They expressed great confidence that the meeting will happen. I think they are way overconfident and I expect the meeting to be canceled or postponed.


----------



## tricia (Nov 13, 2020)

I too think they're way overconfident--and I've been looking at the relevant factors pretty closely. I was lead organizer for a large in-person annual event originally scheduled to launch in Nov. 2020. I doubt enough folks will want to attend such a thing before 2022.

And on the Amtrak front, once a vaccine is widely available I hope that proof of vaccination will be REQUIRED for ALL passengers and crew.


----------



## sttom (Nov 13, 2020)

I personally don't think a vaccine will be widely available till at least June, so I personally think the tourist economy is going to remain depressed through next summer, even if people stop getting sick. Which is iffy depending on how effective the vaccine is. Given that the spread rate of COVID is similar to Diphtheria and the Pfizer trail is up to 90% effective, 85% of the population would have to get vaccinated to stop COVID from spreading widely...in theory. Considering how much we learn about COVID each week, it might end up being a different story a week from now.


----------



## oregon pioneer (Nov 13, 2020)

I'd love to be able to plan to see my family back east, but vaccine or no, I am going to have to wait until people just stop getting sick (and the fam agrees that it's OK) before I can even begin to make plans. So I am looking at the remote possibility of planning for Feb 2022, but not actually making any plans at this time. And yes, if the vaccine is deemed safe and effective, I will almost certainly be getting it at some point.

I'm just a wait-and-see, better-safe-than-sorry kind of person.


----------



## Cho Cho Charlie (Nov 13, 2020)

If we are talking about Trump's COVID-19 vaccine announcement today, I think this headline sums it up best.



> Trump repeats false Covid claims and attacks New York governor Cuomo


----------



## flitcraft (Nov 13, 2020)

I'm president of an international organization that has already made the decision that our July 2021 biennial conference will be all online. Given the current situation in the US and internationally, I don't expect live conferences till late 2021 at the earliest. Regarding vaccines, I will be taking a watch-and-wait approach--particularly if you are in the 60+ age group, we know that vaccines are often less effective due to our weaker immune responses. So for me, I would want to be able to compare the various vaccine candidates with that in mind.


----------



## RichieRich (Nov 13, 2020)

sttom said:


> ... 85% of the population would have to get vaccinated to stop COVID from spreading widely..


While I read that 50% would not get vaccinated at all anyway. At 73, never had a flu shot and don't plan to get injected by anything from the "Government"! Can't wait to see the new Civil War when the Government mandates Biden Injections!


----------



## Bob Dylan (Nov 13, 2020)

RichieRich said:


> While I read that 50% would not get vaccinated at all anyway. At 73, never had a flu shot and don't plan to get injected by anything from the "Government"! Can't wait to see the new Civil War when the Government mandates Biden Injections!


Tell it to the 10,000,000 Infected so far, and 250,000 Dead going to 400,000 by Jan. if Science Deniers keep spreading Lies about Science and disregarding Common Sense Safety Guidelines..( see the Polio Epidemic from the 1950s for reference)


----------



## Manny T (Nov 13, 2020)

RichieRich said:


> At 73, never had a flu shot and don't plan to get injected by anything from the "Government"!



Wut? I wasn't aware that the flu vaccine came "from the Government!" I always thought the flu vaccine was manufactured by private concerns and marketed by them. The line up of manufacturers for the 2020 season follows (the numbers are the number of lots produced for distribution):

Afluria Quadrivalent
Seqirus Pty. Ltd.70Fluad
Seqirus, Inc.1Fluad Quadrivalent
Seqirus, Inc.19Fluarix Quadrivalent
GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals47Flublok Quadrivalent
Protein Sciences Corporation72Flucelvax Quadrivalent
Seqirus, Inc.65FluLaval Quadrivalent
ID Biomedical Corporation of Quebec41FluMist Quadrivalent
MedImmune, LLC15Fluzone High Dose Quadrivalent
Sanofi Pasteur, Inc44Fluzone Quadrivalent
Sanofi Pasteur, Inc.37

Usually people who are skeptical of "government" prefer private market solutions; so I don't understand the position taken at all.


----------



## Night Ranger (Nov 14, 2020)

I'm older than you are and have been getting flu shots since my late teens. I was one of the first kids in my hometown to get a polio shot and I got it as soon as it became available. As for a new Civil War, let me remind how the last one ended for the side that started the rebellion and lost. 

If you don't want to get vaccinated then please stay away from the rest of us. I will trust the science supporting the safety of the vaccines until reputable authorities say differently. 

_The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it. _Neil deGrasse Tyson


----------



## JayPea (Nov 14, 2020)

I have gotten the flu shot every year since I can remember--but one. That year for whatever reason I did not get the shot, and ended up with a nasty case of the flu. I only missed one day of work--the only day I have missed school or work due to illness in the last 46 years--but probably could have stayed home a few more days. It took awhile to fully recover from it. That made me a firm believer in getting the shot and have ever since.


----------



## HenryK (Nov 14, 2020)

Anti-vaxx=anti-science. That is all I have to say.


----------



## MilwaukeeRoadLover (Nov 14, 2020)

I think it will be some time before I have the pre-Covi confidence. That doesnt mean we won't travel...just that we will do it safely. Availability of vaccine is only one variable in traveling.


----------



## gwolfdog (Nov 14, 2020)

RichieRich said:


> While I read that 50% would not get vaccinated at all anyway. At 73, never had a flu shot and don't plan to get injected by anything from the "Government"! Can't wait to see the new Civil War when the Government mandates Biden Injections!


I am also 73 and will be the first in line, with hopefully my wife, when it's distributed. I have multiple Chronic Health conditions and my wife has been fighting Stage 4 Cancer for years. I don't have Complete trust in the Government after being screwed multiple times after Vietnam. This year I got the 65+ Flu Shot. I'm getting my second Shingles Shot this week after 2 bouts with it. I trust the Profit Orientated Drug Companies more than the Government. How many cases of Polio, Measles, Mumps, etc, etc. have you seen lately?


----------



## AmtrakBlue (Nov 14, 2020)

gwolfdog said:


> I am also 73 and will be the first in line, with hopefully my wife, when it's distributed. I have multiple Chronic Health conditions and my wife has been fighting Stage 4 Cancer for years. I don't have Complete trust in the Government after being screwed multiple times after Vietnam. This year I got the 65+ Flu Shot. I'm getting my second Shingles Shot this week after 2 bouts with it. I trust the Profit Orientated Drug Companies more than the Government. How many cases of Polio, Measles, Mumps, etc, etc. have you seen lately?


Unfortunately, measles seem to be making a comeback due to anti-vaxers. 



> *Measles cases in 2019*
> 
> From January 1 to December 31, 2019, 1,282* individual cases of measles were confirmed in 31 states.
> This is the greatest number of cases reported in the U.S. since 1992. The majority of cases were among people who were not vaccinated against measles. Measles is more likely to spread and cause outbreaks in U.S. communities where groups of people are unvaccinated.











Measles Cases and Outbreaks


Get the latest numbers of confirmed measles cases in the US.




www.cdc.gov


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 14, 2020)

I have worked within the field of immunology and am also aware of the peculiarities of my own immune system. I have great antibody response to vaccines and actual infection, but my cellular immunity (as detected to a certain degree by skin tests) isn't as responsive as my humoral (antibody) system. As soon as I can get the Covid19 vaccine, I'm getting it and will travel by train back east (hopefully via The Sunset Limited to New Orleans and then the City of New Orleans to Chicago and the whatever to Ohio) within a month of the last vaccine injection. This assumes that my travel partner/sister and our other sister in Ohio can/will get vaccinated which I have little doubt about. I want to do the travel soon after I get the vaccine because if the music groups (bands, orchestras, quartets) I'm in re-start, I want to be in Albuquerque (where I live) for that. I am assuming those groups will have to wait longer to re-start just because they are groups, sort of large groups, that blow air around.


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 14, 2020)

RichieRich said:


> While I read that 50% would not get vaccinated at all anyway. At 73, never had a flu shot and don't plan to get injected by anything from the "Government"! Can't wait to see the new Civil War when the Government mandates Biden Injections!


The Pfizer Covid19 vaccine was not part of Operation Warp Speed on the R&D side, though they will get US government money for vaccine supply. It could be said that "they" are talking out of both sides of "their" mouth. Here is the relevant paragraph from the article posted below: 

"Operation Warp Speed, the federal effort to rush a vaccine to market, has promised Pfizer $1.95 billion to deliver 100 million doses to the federal government, which will be given to Americans free of charge. But Dr. Jansen sought to distance the company from Operation Warp Speed and presidential politics, noting that the company — unlike the other vaccine front-runners — did not take any federal money to help pay for research and development.

“We were never part of the Warp Speed,” she said on Sunday. “We have never taken any money from the U.S. government, or from anyone.” On Monday, a spokeswoman for Pfizer clarified that the company is part of Operation Warp Speed as a supplier of a potential coronavirus vaccine."









Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective (Published 2020)


Pfizer announced positive early results from its coronavirus vaccine trial, cementing the lead in a frenzied global race that has unfolded at record-breaking speed.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## AmtrakFlyer (Nov 14, 2020)

Thinking like this has allowed the virus to surge out of control here, some estimates now are 400,000 dead by the end of the year. It’s not a Biden or Trump issue it’s a life/death/economic issue facing us all as Americans.

That being said I also don’t get the flu shot and would have serious concerns being one of the first to get the vaccine.

The greed/corruption in pharmaceuticals along with the expedited process/political interference and national desperation lead to that old saying, “what could possibly go wrong”.

So in a lot of ways I’m right with you. I like our Nation have a lot of soul searching to do. We have to come together and treat the virus as the enemy not each other.




RichieRich said:


> While I read that 50% would not get vaccinated at all anyway. At 73, never had a flu shot and don't plan to get injected by anything from the "Government"! Can't wait to see the new Civil War when the Government mandates Biden Injections!


----------



## MARC Rider (Nov 14, 2020)

AmtrakBlue said:


> Unfortunately, measles seem to be making a comeback due to anti-vaxers.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well, this has personal interest for me. Back when I was 6 years old or so, I participated in one of the clinical trials for the first measles vaccine. They must have given me the placebo, because I ended up getting a case of the measles. The vaccine trial was a bit traumatic, too, as it involved not just needle sticks for the vaccine, but also needle sticks for blood draws and such. As a six-year old, a needle stick was not appreciated or tolerated very well. I hate to think that all that effort on my part, and the risk I took to participate is being pissed away by idiots who don't understand the first thing about medical science and who don't want to understand it.


----------



## Seaboard92 (Nov 14, 2020)

This is not a left vs. right issue this is something that should unify us as Americans, and as citizens of the world. There is a good alternative history book 1632 by Eric Flint that actually summarizes this issue really well. The premise of the book is that a town from 2000s West Virginia (Grantville, WV based on Mannington, WV) is sucked back in a time warp to the year 1632 in the middle of Germany alongside religious wars, plagues, and the inquisition and how they react. One thing the "Hard Liners" (Think small minded) say is that they should not be sharing their limited amount of medicine and resources on the refugees flocking into the one modern city in a war torn region because they aren't American. Where as the more ideological (think liberal) characters who are in the government believe in science and think rationally. One thing they talk about is this and I'll try to paraphrase it. 

"The plague doesn't come up to you Jimmy and say "I can't go in here this is a good 'murican" and go somewhere else." 

My point is the virus doesn't care if you are an American, a Russian, a German, a Nigerian, a Mexican, or a Korean if you are in its path you are going to get the virus. In the America I grew up in we may have had different opinions on things but we always cared about our neighbor, and our world. That is gone now I'm afraid but I'm hopeful it will return. I don't wear a mask to protect me, I wear it to protect the millions of immunocompromised people living in this world. I happen to live with two people who I love and care about who are in that category. I wear it to protect them. America used to be a country that was concerned about others, we fought wars to free other countries from tyrannical regimes, and helped with elections across the world. Somewhere in the last few years we have shifted to being a self centered population that doesn't care about the common good of the common man or the world as a whole. 

I understand that people have the freedom to chose to do with their body what they want even if the rest of us disagree with it in regards to the vaccine, or wearing a mask. But I want those people to remember this. Where your freedom starts, someone else's freedom ends. Right now my grandmother who survived World War II in Berlin, fought in the German resistance can't leave home because of the virus. I want you to remember that someone who fought so that others could be free, can't be free because of your freedom to not wear a mask, or not getting a vaccine. We are all in this together regardless of our politics. So lets take care of this. We have a vaccine in the works (two promising ones in the USA from what I've read), and several other countries are close or have them (Russia). And honestly we shouldn't be working on this as a nation state but as the entire world. After all the only thing that doesn't discriminate is the virus. 

It may be a living creature because technically cells are a living creature but it's not an intelligent one. It is not capable of thoughts, opinions, or the ability to move on it's own. And in my opinion science denial is one of the biggest viruses around and it's just as large of a pandemic as Covid-19. It just took Covid-19 to bring it to the forefront of peoples minds. 

As far as the original post. I see that leisure travel will recover at a faster rate than business travel as teleworking, and zoom conferences have become common place. We are used to that now so I don't see where that's going to truly recover, and when it does it will be at a far lower rate. So the national network trains will do better than the corridors. 

Be safe everybody, wear a mask (properly please), get vaccinated when it comes out, and be kind to your fellow man. We will get thru this.


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 14, 2020)

Bob Dylan said:


> Tell it to the 10,000,000 Infected so far, and 250,000 Dead going to 400,000 by Jan. if Science Deniers keep spreading Lies about Science and disregarding Common Sense Safety Guidelines..( see the Polio Epidemic from the 1950s for reference)



This is not like other vaccines that have been carefully tested over a long period of time. This vaccine has been rushed into production. How can we know how many people will experience serious adverse effects until it has been tested by a large number of people over a period of time? In 1976 the Ford Administration pushed a Swine Flu vaccine that nearly killed my neighbor. He survived but was paralyzed and unable to talk. It took two years to recover. Google the topic of this 1976 vaccine and you will find that quite a few people were adversely affected. Presumably the health authorities assured the public that it was safe, so why should anyone rush to take a Covid vaccine that has had no time to be carefully monitored?


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 14, 2020)

Seaboard92 said:


> This is not a left vs. right issue this is something that should unify us as Americans, and as citizens of the world. There is a good alternative history book 1632 by Eric Flint that actually summarizes this issue really well. The premise of the book is that a town from 2000s West Virginia (Grantville, WV based on Mannington, WV) is sucked back in a time warp to the year 1632 in the middle of Germany alongside religious wars, plagues, and the inquisition and how they react. One thing the "Hard Liners" (Think small minded) say is that they should not be sharing their limited amount of medicine and resources on the refugees flocking into the one modern city in a war torn region because they aren't American. Where as the more ideological (think liberal) characters who are in the government believe in science and think rationally. One thing they talk about is this and I'll try to paraphrase it.
> 
> "The plague doesn't come up to you Jimmy and say "I can't go in here this is a good 'murican" and go somewhere else."
> 
> ...



Thanks for your opinion. I and quite a few others prefer to wait to see how this vaccine affects those who take it in the first months.


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 14, 2020)

MARC Rider said:


> Well, this has personal interest for me. Back when I was 6 years old or so, I participated in one of the clinical trials for the first measles vaccine. They must have given me the placebo, because I ended up getting a case of the measles. The vaccine trial was a bit traumatic, too, as it involved not just needle sticks for the vaccine, but also needle sticks for blood draws and such. As a six-year old, a needle stick was not appreciated or tolerated very well. I hate to think that all that effort on my part, and the risk I took to participate is being pissed away by idiots who don't understand the first thing about medical science and who don't want to understand it.



I think many who are wary of the Covid vaccine ARE interested in science but do not want to take a potentially grave risk on a rushed vaccine. Every vaccine involves a degree of risk but this one is brand new with no time to see medium to long term effects. Those who are worried about taking it are not ignorant or selfish for being concerned.


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 14, 2020)

No matter how many assurances the government and medical community give us, not everyone is going to get vaccinated. In addition unvaccinated people are going to continue to cross the border illegally as they are doing in Europe and elsewhere in the world. The vaccine, even if safe and effective, will not be foolproof. From my way of thinking, this means that the masks as well as the social distancing will continue for a long time, hopefully not for years to come. We need a cure


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 14, 2020)

Manny T said:


> Wut? I wasn't aware that the flu vaccine came "from the Government!" I always thought the flu vaccine was manufactured by private concerns and marketed by them. The line up of manufacturers for the 2020 season follows (the numbers are the number of lots produced for distribution):
> 
> Afluria Quadrivalent
> Seqirus Pty. Ltd.70Fluad
> ...


 I read that the US government had allocated $9 billion for the development of the vaccine. Didn't I read too that the military will be assisting in the distribution of the vaccine? It sounds like intense government involvement to me,


----------



## flitcraft (Nov 14, 2020)

Ferroequinologist said:


> We need a cure


 A cure is extraordinarily unlikely. We don't have cures for smallpox, rabies, polio, measles, the flu, the mumps, pertussis, German measles, and well, you get the idea. Cures for viruses just aren't in our arsenal yet, and there is none on the horizon for COVID or any other viral scourges. What we do have, in many of these cases, is an effective and safe vaccine. I believe that this is what we will have for COVID too, though we may not know for some time for whom it is most effective and what the side effects may be. I know enough about vaccines to have confidence that an effective vaccine is likely to be helpful--either by making it very unlikely that a vaccinated person will come down with the disease or else will get a much milder case. At the moment, we have a large number of candidate vaccines in development, with quite different mechanisms to create purported effectiveness. That is why I won't be first in line--as an older person living with an even older spouse who is immunocompromised, I'll be waiting for data on which of the candidate vaccines promotes the most robust immunity among the elderly. But, once the data is in, I won't care whether the pharmaceutical company took government money or not. Science is science...


----------



## me_little_me (Nov 15, 2020)

AmtrakFlyer said:


> Thinking like this has allowed the virus to surge out of control here, some estimates now are 400,000 dead by the end of the year. It’s not a Biden or Trump issue it’s a life/death/economic issue facing us all as Americans.


Please don't use the "some estimates" numbers. They are often the extremes (in both directions) used by both politicians and media commentators to push their points. The death rate of deaths vs cases is going down as the weakest of us die off, the treatment gets better and the detection by better tests gets more accurate.

It's like "Joe Smith committed a crime. He faces up to 60 years". Yeah, if he is convicted on all counts, gets the maximum on each one, gets them consecutive instead of concurrent, has no mitigating factors, the worst lawyer, no friends or family to beg the judge, and the prosecutor has no other cases and really hates him. Otherwise, it will be settled for 6 months confinement and two years probation.


----------



## Jean (Nov 15, 2020)

It seems to me that some sort of estimates or educated guesses will be necessary if the US is to prepare in any sort of useful way for what is to come. Maybe we get all the wrong news here in Australia, but just today I read that about half of all COVID tests in (I think) South Dakota are coming back positive, and that the total daily number of new cases in the country is increasing alarmingly all the time. I also read that refrigerated trucks are again being used to hold bodies. These are not signs that things are getting better, even if treatments are improving.
Even if the deaths vs cases figures are improving and I’d love to see them, being one of the “weakest”, if the total number of new cases is growing at such a steep rate, then tens of thousands more will certainly die this year. Just multiply 46 x 1,000 to give a minimum number of deaths from now until the end of the year, using today’s figures. Maybe these huge numbers stop us realising that each number in that terrible death toll was a real person, with a real grieving family.
I have spent a lot of time in the US, my daughter and son in law lived there for five years and we all loved the country. But what has happened and continues to happen just leaves us open mouthed. A disease has become political.


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 15, 2020)

flitcraft said:


> A cure is extraordinarily unlikely. We don't have cures for smallpox, rabies, polio, measles, the flu, the mumps, pertussis, German measles, and well, you get the idea. Cures for viruses just aren't in our arsenal yet, and there is none on the horizon for COVID or any other viral scourges. What we do have, in many of these cases, is an effective and safe vaccine. I believe that this is what we will have for COVID too, though we may not know for some time for whom it is most effective and what the side effects may be. I know enough about vaccines to have confidence that an effective vaccine is likely to be helpful--either by making it very unlikely that a vaccinated person will come down with the disease or else will get a much milder case. At the moment, we have a large number of candidate vaccines in development, with quite different mechanisms to create purported effectiveness. That is why I won't be first in line--as an older person living with an even older spouse who is immunocompromised, I'll be waiting for data on which of the candidate vaccines promotes the most robust immunity among the elderly. But, once the data is in, I won't care whether the pharmaceutical company took government money or not. Science is science...




Like you, I am going to wait to see what adverse effects occur among those who take the vaccine. Unfortunately it will be hard to wait a year or more. Getting Covid from the vaccine however is not my greatest concern. I'm much more worried about the possibility of paralysis which is what happened to my neighbor after taking the Swine Flu vaccine promoted by the Ford Administration in 1976. Incidentally, Covid mortality is very low and primarily affects those with compromised immune systems, the very old and those in nursing homes. By being careful you are very likely to avoid contagion. I'm sure you know all of this but it needs to be stressed. Taking a vaccine that has limited testing exposes one to the possibility of grave side effects that would never occur if one had avoided crowds, washed hands, used a mask when necessary and generally taken precautions. The point is that TAKING a new vaccine poses risks, rather than eliminating risks. Health care professionals don't like talking about this. I am sure the vaccine promoted in 1976 was touted as safe but it wasn't.


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 15, 2020)

Jean said:


> It seems to me that some sort of estimates or educated guesses will be necessary if the US is to prepare in any sort of useful way for what is to come. Maybe we get all the wrong news here in Australia, but just today I read that about half of all COVID tests in (I think) South Dakota are coming back positive, and that the total daily number of new cases in the country is increasing alarmingly all the time. I also read that refrigerated trucks are again being used to hold bodies. These are not signs that things are getting better, even if treatments are improving.
> Even if the deaths vs cases figures are improving and I’d love to see them, being one of the “weakest”, if the total number of new cases is growing at such a steep rate, then tens of thousands more will certainly die this year. Just multiply 46 x 1,000 to give a minimum number of deaths from now until the end of the year, using today’s figures. Maybe these huge numbers stop us realising that each number in that terrible death toll was a real person, with a real grieving family.
> I have spent a lot of time in the US, my daughter and son in law lived there for five years and we all loved the country. But what has happened and continues to happen just leaves us open mouthed. A disease has become political.



What is your point? What are you advocating? I am aware of the draconian lockdown in the state of Victoria and the strict regulations throughout Australia. A friend who lives in Australia has been trapped in England since March, unable to return home and unable to pay for the two week hotel quarantine required on return to Australia. I don't know that Americans will be willing to cooperate with severe restrictions on freedom of movement, curfews, arrests and heavy fines for violating the terms of such regulations etc. I am not arguing for or against, merely observing. I wonder how many people on this forum would be willing to submit to such regulations - and would they be constitutional? There would certainly be legal challenges.


----------



## AmtrakFlyer (Nov 15, 2020)

The more this gets mired down in rhetoric and legal challenges the more people will die. It’s time to let scientists and health professionals lead the fight. We are in uncharted times. We all need to put on our big boy pants and act for the common good.


----------



## tricia (Nov 15, 2020)

How's this for reasonable accommodation for the anti-vaxxers and folks who want to delay getting a vaccine: 

Every business, school, and other public-access entity in this country (including Amtrak) needs to require that EVERYONE at that place of business wear a mask at all times when they're in the same room as other people, and that social distancing and other disease-prevention protocols be consistently implemented for all customers and employees. (Yes, this will mean take-out only for restaurants until the pandemic is under control.) Failure to enforce this for customers should result in the business being shut down, and failure to enforce it for employees should be punished as a serious OSHA violation. 

When a vaccine becomes widely available, the protocol should shift toward proof of vaccination being required for entry to all businesses--boarding an Amtrak train included.

All the above needs to be consistently implemented and enforced until public health scientists determine, state by state or region by region, that the infection has been suppressed there and some or all of these measures can be relaxed. When hot spots flare, the same measures will need to be re-implemented. Providers of long-distance travel services (Amtrak included) will need to be among the last businesses to back off from stringent disease-prevention protocols.

Folks who don't want to wear masks or get vaccinated will need to seek out businesses willing to deliver to them curbside or by mail--no entry allowed. Your right to refuse to wear a mask or be vaccinated should NOT be allowed to infringe upon everyone else's right to avoid exposure to a dangerous infectious disease that's killed a quarter of a million people in this country.


----------



## gwolfdog (Nov 15, 2020)

I would put you as the Head of the next Biden Virus Task Force. I'm a little skeptical regarding if this could happen in the Good Old USA. I think it could start here in NY but would be a tough sell in Some Red States. Then again, if the Refrigeration Body Trucks keep rolling out and they start burning piles of bodies in the streets and ringing Church Bells the Yokels might wake up. JMHO


----------



## Seaboard92 (Nov 15, 2020)

One thing that me and several close associates have been talking about is how to distribute the vaccine in the most efficient matter as possible. The big problem the Pfizer drug has is it has to be kept at -90 something degrees F. One thing we were talking about was acquiring as many of the Heritage Baggage Amtrak sold off either by lease or outright purchasing. Then once we had the rolling stock to install cryogenic freezers inside the cars that could keep the vaccine at the appropriate temperature point to allow for rural distribution. One of the greatest problems facing the American healthcare system is the fact that rural hospitals are closing everywhere in the nation. And many other rural hospitals can't afford to buy all of the modern technologies needed to save lives. 

So in this scenario I would propose using two CryoBags, two former sleepers to be exam cars, and a crew dorm for the traveling crew. Then utilize some of the many idled P42s or P40s that are currently displaced either by chargers or by short sighted tri weekly service to pull said trains. Of course this would probably require a congressional mandate to force Amtrak to allow usage of their P42s, and for the host railroads to give up track space for a rolling hospital train. 

It has been proven however in Mexico, Russia, and India that hospital trains work well in rural areas. My theory is by operating rolling hospital trains it will allow rural areas to be vaccinated efficiently without having to worry about the temperature of the vaccine, or hospital systems that can't afford the freezers. 

Naturally I would volunteer to lead this effort because I want an end to the pandemic.


----------



## Rasputin (Nov 15, 2020)

me_little_me said:


> Please don't use the "some estimates" numbers. They are often the extremes (in both directions) used by both politicians and media commentators to push their points. The death rate of deaths vs cases is going down as the weakest of us die off, the treatment gets better and the detection by better tests gets more accurate.


I believe the reference to an estimate of 400,000 U.S. virus deaths was based on a previous prediction from the model developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Their model had previously predicted 400,000 deaths by December 31, 2020 and 511,373 deaths by February 28, 2021. Since then they have revised their figures downward. On November 12, their figure was 438,941 deaths by March 1, 2021. I don't know their current estimate for December 31.

According to my notes, around July 9 the Institute model predicted that the U.S. would reach 200,000 virus deaths by November 1. That estimate proved to be quite conservative and the U.S. reached that point around September 22.


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 15, 2020)

AmtrakFlyer said:


> The more this gets mired down in rhetoric and legal challenges the more people will die. It’s time to let scientists and health professionals lead the fight. We are in uncharted times. We all need to put on our big boy pants and act for the common good.



Which scientists? There is not uniformity of agreement. Take this, for example: Great Barrington Declaration and Petition


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 15, 2020)

tricia said:


> How's this for reasonable accommodation for the anti-vaxxers and folks who want to delay getting a vaccine:
> 
> Every business, school, and other public-access entity in this country (including Amtrak) needs to require that EVERYONE at that place of business wear a mask at all times when they're in the same room as other people, and that social distancing and other disease-prevention protocols be consistently implemented for all customers and employees. (Yes, this will mean take-out only for restaurants until the pandemic is under control.) Failure to enforce this for customers should result in the business being shut down, and failure to enforce it for employees should be punished as a serious OSHA violation.
> 
> ...



And if the vaccine turns out to be not so safe after all? And how will such a rule be imposed on citizens? Will Congress pass a law? Will it be by executive fiat? And if the latter, won't it be challenged in court?


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 15, 2020)

gwolfdog said:


> I would put you as the Head of the next Biden Virus Task Force. I'm a little skeptical regarding if this could happen in the Good Old USA. I think it could start here in NY but would be a tough sell in Some Red States. Then again, if the Refrigeration Body Trucks keep rolling out and they start burning piles of bodies in the streets and ringing Church Bells the Yokels might wake up. JMHO



Maybe NYC but not upstate New York! And where is the proof of these refrigeration vans full of bodies? Could someone supply a credible link please?


----------



## AmtrakBlue (Nov 15, 2020)

Ferroequinologist said:


> Maybe NYC but not upstate New York! And where is the proof of these refrigeration vans full of bodies? Could someone supply a credible link please?











The somber signs of the pandemic are returning: new restrictions, packed ICUs and refrigerated units for bodies


When the coronavirus pandemic hit its first peak in the spring, it took a dramatic toll on the nation: States ordered their residents to stay at home to control the surge. Patients packed into overcrowded hospitals. And millions lost their jobs.




www.wral.com


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 15, 2020)

tricia said:


> How's this for reasonable accommodation for the anti-vaxxers and folks who want to delay getting a vaccine:
> 
> Every business, school, and other public-access entity in this country (including Amtrak) needs to require that EVERYONE at that place of business wear a mask at all times when they're in the same room as other people, and that social distancing and other disease-prevention protocols be consistently implemented for all customers and employees. (Yes, this will mean take-out only for restaurants until the pandemic is under control.) Failure to enforce this for customers should result in the business being shut down, and failure to enforce it for employees should be punished as a serious OSHA violation.
> 
> ...


I'm all for getting vaccinated, but I think your proposal will lead to a lot of civil strife. We don't require other types of vaccinations (except if you're a health care worker). I think enough people will want to get vaccinated ASAP against Covid19 to put a dent in the disease. Furthermore, now that I have a stash of homemade masks, I intend on wearing them when traveling or in crowded places even after Covid19 is tempered because there are plenty of other respiratory diseases. I'm getting vaccinated so I can play flute again in my bands and orchestra. I do understand the caution some people feel about the mRNA-type vaccines as they are new approaches, but I feel confident in the regulatory process and am planning on getting the first one I can be it a mRNA-type vaccine or one of the more conventional ones. But I do have an immune system that heretofore has behaved as it's supposed to (for the most part), unlike some of my other body systems.

Edit: My concern is about requiring proof of vaccination to be allowed entry into various venues. I agree with a mask mandate though.


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 15, 2020)

Ferroequinologist said:


> Maybe NYC but not upstate New York! And where is the proof of these refrigeration vans full of bodies? Could someone supply a credible link please?


El Paso. I have seen the pictures on the local news (Albuquerque, NM) for about a week now.


----------



## gwolfdog (Nov 15, 2020)

Ferroequinologist said:


> Maybe NYC but not upstate New York! And where is the proof of these refrigeration vans full of bodies? Could someone supply a credible link please?


It's gotten so bad here in Syracuse, their closing the Bar's at 10 rather then recently at 12.  We are at our highest levels ever and Cuomo is getting concerned. They have bodies piled up in these trucks in many other State areas, on the fake news, or can Goggle it.


----------



## jebr (Nov 15, 2020)

Ferroequinologist said:


> Incidentally, Covid mortality is very low and primarily affects those with compromised immune systems, the very old and those in nursing homes. By being careful you are very likely to avoid contagion.



The mortality rate with COVID-19 isn't the only thing to be concerned about, though. There's a number of people who live through it, but have yet to make a full recovery, even some who had infections in March and April. It's also unknown what the long-term effects of COVID-19 are, both for those that recover fully and those that so far have not fully recovered. From The Mayo Clinic:



> _COVID-19 symptoms can sometimes persist for months. The virus can damage the lungs, heart and brain, which increases the risk of long-term health problems._
> 
> Most people who have coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) recover completely within a few weeks. But some people — even those who had mild versions of the disease — continue to experience symptoms after their initial recovery.



While people are weighing the risks of getting COVID-19 (in light of what preventative measures or future vaccinations they're willing to take,) it's worth remembering that it isn't a binary of "you get it and die, or you get it and make a full recovery." There's some research that suggests that over half of COVID-19 patients have some sort of medium-term lingering effects, though since it's a novel virus, we simply don't have a clear picture yet of what percentage that looks like, how long-term those effects are, etc.


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 15, 2020)

Seaboard92 said:


> One thing that me and several close associates have been talking about is how to distribute the vaccine in the most efficient matter as possible. The big problem the Pfizer drug has is it has to be kept at -90 something degrees F. One thing we were talking about was acquiring as many of the Heritage Baggage Amtrak sold off either by lease or outright purchasing. Then once we had the rolling stock to install cryogenic freezers inside the cars that could keep the vaccine at the appropriate temperature point to allow for rural distribution. One of the greatest problems facing the American healthcare system is the fact that rural hospitals are closing everywhere in the nation. And many other rural hospitals can't afford to buy all of the modern technologies needed to save lives.
> 
> So in this scenario I would propose using two CryoBags, two former sleepers to be exam cars, and a crew dorm for the traveling crew. Then utilize some of the many idled P42s or P40s that are currently displaced either by chargers or by short sighted tri weekly service to pull said trains. Of course this would probably require a congressional mandate to force Amtrak to allow usage of their P42s, and for the host railroads to give up track space for a rolling hospital train.
> 
> ...


-90 F =-68 C. -70 C freezers (as we call them) are ubiquitous in clinical laboratories and biomedical research facilities both in Universities and private companies. When I was working in a University research lab, I was involved in the purchase of several of -70 C freezers and was surprised that they weren't as expensive as I would have thought. I purchased several for around $5000 each. That was back around 2006-2009. Prices for almost anything for research institutions are usually jacked up pretty high, so I was pleasantly surprised with the prices we paid. I would imagine that this Covi19 situation and the need for -70 freezers will cause the price for such freezers to increase due to the "law" of supply and demand.


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 15, 2020)

Seaboard92 said:


> It may be a living creature because technically cells are a living creature but it's not an intelligent one. It is not capable of thoughts, opinions, or the ability to move on it's own. And in my opinion science denial is one of the biggest viruses around and it's just as large of a pandemic as Covid-19. It just took Covid-19 to bring it to the forefront of peoples minds.
> 
> As far as the original post. I see that leisure travel will recover at a faster rate than business travel as teleworking, and zoom conferences have become common place. We are used to that now so I don't see where that's going to truly recover, and when it does it will be at a far lower rate. So the national network trains will do better than the corridors.
> 
> Be safe everybody, wear a mask (properly please), get vaccinated when it comes out, and be kind to your fellow man. We will get thru this.


I agree with your post; however I would like to correct one thing you wrote. Viruses are not cells. They are a package of DNA or RNA with a coating of protein. They cannot do ANYTHING at all, (such as replicate) without being inside of a host cell of a human or bat body in the case of Covid19. They are totally inactive until air puffs them into our respiratory passages (in the case of Covid19) and their spike protein part of the coat touches the ACE2 receptor of a human (or bat) cell. Once they get into a cell, they hijack the cellular machinery to make proteins and DNA/RNA to make more of themselves. They are molecular parasites. For the most part biologists do not consider them to be living organisms because they cannot replicate on their own, although it was a subject of debate at one time (whether they were "alive" or not).


----------



## jis (Nov 15, 2020)

Barb Stout said:


> For the most part biologists do not consider them to be living organisms because they cannot replicate on their own, although it was a subject of debate at one time (whether they were "alive" or not).


This has always intrigued me. Clearly viruses have a lifecycle. The state of their lifecycle that is outside a cell as a Viron is clearly a "non-living" one, like spores of certain other life forms, or even seeds in some sense. Until they find themselves in a suitable environment they are not really alive. Once the Viron manages to enter a cell it becomes able to replicate. So I am not sure how the biologists arrive at the "not life form" conclusion. Just because seeds cannot replicate until planted does not make plants be not a life form. Maybe I have been reading too may science fictions, but I certainly find the bilogist's argument not very convincing on the matter of life form-ness.


----------



## tricia (Nov 15, 2020)

Barb Stout said:


> I'm all for getting vaccinated, but I think your proposal will lead to a lot of civil strife. We don't require other types of vaccinations (except if you're a health care worker). I think enough people will want to get vaccinated ASAP against Covid19 to put a dent in the disease. Furthermore, now that I have a stash of homemade masks, I intend on wearing them when traveling or in crowded places even after Covid19 is tempered because there are plenty of other respiratory diseases. I'm getting vaccinated so I can play flute again in my bands and orchestra. I do understand the caution some people feel about the mRNA-type vaccines as they are new approaches, but I feel confident in the regulatory process and am planning on getting the first one I can be it a mRNA-type vaccine or one of the more conventional ones. But I do have an immune system that heretofore has behaved as it's supposed to (for the most part), unlike some of my other body systems.
> 
> Edit: My concern is about requiring proof of vaccination to be allowed entry into various venues. I agree with a mask mandate though.



Vaccinations for various illnesses (rubella, smallpox...) have long been required for children to attend school. What I'm suggesting is pretty much the same thing, for the same reason, with the same expectation of effectiveness in stopping epidemics--except that for COVID adults will be required to immunize also.

Immunization requirements work when nearly everyone accepts that they have a duty to accept a small risk of adverse reaction in return for community health and safety. We can see the effect of self-centered opting out right now with measles outbreaks in this country. I don't recall there being any "opt out" options when I was a kid, except for narrow religious objections. Without our past history of nearly universally accepted vaccination for polio and smallpox, we'd still be having outbreaks of those today in this country.

At minimum, if anyone wants to opt out of COVID vaccination (once we have a vaccine that's reasonably safe and effective and widely available), they should accept responsibility for that choice, and therefore accept not being allowed into stores and schools and other settings where they might spread infection.

In the current poisonous political climate, I wouldn't bet on this actually happening. Nonetheless, I do believe that a policy like what I'm suggesting would avoid many, many deaths and greatly expedite getting our economy and society back to more normal ways of living.


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 15, 2020)

jis said:


> This has always intrigued me. Clearly viruses have a lifecycle. The state of their lifecycle that is outside a cell as a Viron is clearly a "non-living" one, like spores of certain other life forms, or even seeds in some sense. Until they find themselves in a suitable environment they are not really alive. Once the Viron manages to enter a cell it becomes able to replicate. So I am not sure how the biologists arrive at the "not life form" conclusion. Just because seeds cannot replicate until planted does not make plants be not a life form. Maybe I have been reading too may science fictions, but I certainly find the bilogist's argument not very convincing on the matter of life form-ness.


I believe it's because they are totally reliant on the host cell's molecules to do anything. However, it is in the field of biology where they are studied, not engineering or chemistry or sociology.


----------



## RichieRich (Nov 15, 2020)

tricia said:


> At minimum, if anyone wants to opt out of COVID vaccination (once we have a vaccine that's reasonably safe and effective and widely available), they should accept responsibility for that choice, and therefore accept not being allowed into stores and schools and other settings where they might spread infection.


So you must be indicating that Police or Military will be assigned to the entrance of every store, restaurant, school, etc. etc to "check your papers" before entry?? Sounds like something that happened once in History before.


----------



## tricia (Nov 15, 2020)

RichieRich said:


> So you must be indicating that Police or Military will be assigned to the entrance of every store, restaurant, school, etc. etc to "check your papers" before entry?? Sounds like something that happened once in History before.



Don't be silly. We enforce public health and safety regulations ALL THE TIME--sanitation rules for restaurants, maximum occupancy for public assembly spaces, ID required to purchase alcohol and tobacco, traffic ticket if you run a red light.... The mechanics for enforcement vary, but those are details, not some big scary new thing.

In the case of Amtrak, conductors might ask for a vaccination ID card at the time of boarding, when they check tickets.


----------



## west point (Nov 15, 2020)

About deaths. What is being ignored is the excess deaths. That is total deaths from all reasons minus the number of Covid-19 deaths Usually that is compiled week by week.. Then that number is compared to the number of deaths in past 10 years adjusted for population . Any numbers of excess deaths con be indirectly linked to Covid-19. 

A fictitious example ::::: Average total deaths last ten years for Covid-19 time line 

400,000 Total this year is 750,000. Covid -19 to date 251,000+

'So 750,000 - 400,000 - 251,000 = 95,000 excess deaths . So for this fictitious example the excess deaths are 95,000 from persons who did not get medical care for accidents, heart problems, cancer, pneumonia, mild accidents that become deadly infections and other reasons. The last figure I heard was last summer of 120,000+ and of course that number will have increased.

The CDC reports 300,000 deaths so far this year








CDC reports 300,000 excess deaths in US so far this year


A new report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says nearly 300,000 more deaths than expected have occurred in the United States so far in 2020. Only two-thirds of these “excess deaths” are directly attributed to COVID-19, suggesting the real death toll of the pandemic is…




newatlas.com




.

expect 400,000 by end of year.




__





us excess deaths 2020 - Search







www.bing.com


----------



## jebr (Nov 16, 2020)

*Moderator note:*

This conversation should be narrowly focused on Amtrak travel post-vaccine. General discussion of COVID-19 and related items, including vaccine developments, should be done *here*. Posts here of a general nature may be removed or moved to the linked thread.


----------



## Lonestar648 (Nov 16, 2020)

2022 appears to be the Post Vaccine time frame when maybe people can legitimately relax on the required protocols. The big question will be what will the new normal look like? For Amtrak, will people ever travel like they used to travel? Will people have the money to travel after the pandemic? There are a lot of unknowns, like if there are new shutdowns, can the economy survive? Amtrak has an advantage right now if they had wanted to market it, that is safe travel with distance and private rooms. With the reduction in service, presumed to last until people travel again, how long will people put up with the current state of passenger rail? Regional and NEC service is all that will remain unless Congress makes Amtrak change direction. 

Amtrak will likely see a dip in number of passengers as more Cities and States order shut downs with this Winter spike which could be much worse than this Spring, so will they reduce frequency during this spike?


----------



## Rasputin (Nov 16, 2020)

I have not yet seen much discussion in the media about what the protocols will be for passenger transportation once a vaccine becomes widely available. Will airlines, cruise ships and Amtrak require that all passengers be vaccinated before they can board? Once cross border trains begin to operate will Canada and the U.S. require all passengers entering their respective countries to be vaccinated.? Will some countries require airlines to transport only vaccinated passengers to their country?

If vaccination is not required for common carrier travel, will airlines and Amtrak make any attempt to segregate vaccinated from no-vax passengers on trains and planes? If not required by law, will there be a good business reason for doing so?


----------



## Devil's Advocate (Nov 16, 2020)

Ferroequinologist said:


> This is not like other vaccines that have been carefully tested over a long period of time. This vaccine has been rushed into production. How can we know how many people will experience serious adverse effects until it has been tested by a large number of people over a period of time?


These are reasonable concerns and for a while we can wear masks and remain distanced while others are vaccinated, but barring a disaster we will eventually need to shift gears and focus on innoculating or isolating the remaining holdouts. Amtrak can't keep a 50% block on seats forever. Soon the bailout money will dry up and Amtrak will need to fill as many seats as possible just to keep our trains operating. We can't let a vocal minority hold us back forever. If we play by their rules the recovery will stall out and die. The irony of this whole experiment is that the countries which implemented _actual_ lock downs kicked the virus months ago and were able to go back to mostly normal lives while we held back and stuck with weakened half measures and full strength confusion that did more damage over the long run.



RichieRich said:


> While I read that 50% would not get vaccinated at all anyway. At 73, never had a flu shot and don't plan to get injected by anything from the "Government"! Can't wait to see the new Civil War when the Government mandates Biden Injections!


You can't wait for a new Civil War? The things people shout in public grow crazier and more unhinged by the day.


----------



## Qapla (Nov 16, 2020)

Who knows ... if post-vaccine travel takes a year or so to return - that may give them time to do needed track and rolling stock maintenance and repair to provide a better product then is currently being used


----------



## jis (Nov 16, 2020)

Devil's Advocate said:


> You can't wait for a new Civil War? The things people shout in public grow crazier and more unhinged by the day.


Well, these days many appear to wear their "unhingedness" on their sleeves as the most supreme achievement of their life. So what to expect?  Anyway, in this specific case it would appear to be a Starwman stood up and then sent off to Civil War. 

However, as far as vaccine goes, first of all it is not necessary for everyone to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, and secondly vaccination can be handled mostly as a voluntary recommendation thing as a starter and see how far we can get using that protocol. It is likely that with a 95% effective vaccine you just require the sum of already infected plus vaccinated within each 6 moth-ish window to be not necessarily more than 70-75% anyway to achieve pretty good control. And those who really care enough can continue to practice safer protocols in most occasions. Those who don;t won't.

I don't think the unhinged will get their Civil War at least on this subject anytime soon, since most are not as unhinged as them. 

Now making it specific to riding trains, once we have got upto the 70%-ish level, those that are at greater risk and are concerned that the 5% inafficacy of the vaccine poses a risk are free to practice more stringent protocols including continuing to wear masks in close quarters, hand hygiene (which I don't know why anyone would stop practicing anyway, but you know? unhinged) etc. Others can carry on with life shedding many of the more egregious parts of the protective protocol. Things will slowly return to normal (possibly a new one) even if 20-30% refuse to get vaccinated and also do not naturally get infected to recover and get immunity for the 6month to a year window (apparently) or die.

Interestingly, India has recently restarted its legendary crush load Suburban electric service in Mumbai and Kolkata and there has so far not been any spectacular growth. New cases are generally headed downwards in India. But I am also not sure anyone really knows why anything happens in India the way it does. But generally trains are considerably less crowded. They started intercity service about 8 weeks back in a limited way and are adding trains almost every week since then. Original daily services have been reintroduced as daily and with full complement of cars in the consists (Rakes as Indians call them), No vaccine yet, but lot of practice at making the cleanliness protocols as habit I suppo


----------



## Bob Dylan (Nov 16, 2020)

jis said:


> Well, these days many appear to wear their "unhingedness" on their sleeves as the most supreme achievement of their life. So what to expect?  Anyway, in this specific case it would appear to be a Starwman stood up and then sent off to Civil War.
> 
> However, as far as vaccine goes, first of all it is not necessary for everyone to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, and secondly vaccination can be handled mostly as a voluntary recommendation thing as a starter and see how far we can get using that protocol. It is likely that with a 95% effective vaccine you just require the sum of already infected plus vaccinated within each 6 moth-ish window to be not necessarily more than 70-75% anyway to achieve pretty good control. And those who really care enough can continue to practice safer protocols in most occasions. Those who don;t won't.
> 
> ...


Want a Retirement Job as DOT Sec???


----------



## MARC Rider (Nov 17, 2020)

RichieRich said:


> So you must be indicating that Police or Military will be assigned to the entrance of every store, restaurant, school, etc. etc to "check your papers" before entry?? Sounds like something that happened once in History before.


Gee, I went to the dermatologist a few months ago, and I had to show ID before being allowed into the office building. And I've shopped at stores where they want to see your sales receipts before you leave. This sort of thing isn't exactly unprecedented in this country. We've had madatory health restrictions during epidemics for years, and now, all of a sudden, it's a problem?


----------



## MARC Rider (Nov 17, 2020)

Rasputin said:


> Once cross border trains begin to operate will Canada and the U.S. require all passengers entering their respective countries to be vaccinated.? Will some countries require airlines to transport only vaccinated passengers to their country?


I know this is ancient history, but when I made my first overseas trip in 1971, it was recommended, though not absolutely required by the country I was visiting that I get a smallpox vaccination. Which I did, and I got a real nice yellow vaccination booklet that was sized to fit into your passport that had the vaccination records. Many countries absolutely required vaccinations as a condition for entry. I think there is ample precedent for transportation providers to demand proof of vaccination.


----------



## caravanman (Nov 17, 2020)

I have needed vaccinations when I have travelled in Asia. They have protected me.

If folk don't want a Covid-19 vaccination, then don't travel on Amtrak, don't mix with others, it's your health risk, not mine... I will have the vaccine, travel, and that will help protect me.

I understand that if lots of folk get vaccinated it will also help protect the unvaccinated by lowering the chance of transmission, but in the meantime, let the unvaccinated sort their own priorities out...

We know over a million people have died from Covid-19, is it such a tragedy if a few dozen have an adverse reaction to a vaccine, if it saves millions more?


----------



## tricia (Nov 17, 2020)

jis said:


> ...
> 
> Now making it specific to riding trains, once we have got upto the 70%-ish level, those that are at greater risk and are concerned that the 5% inafficacy of the vaccine poses a risk are free to practice more stringent protocols including continuing to wear masks in close quarters, hand hygiene (which I don't know why anyone would stop practicing anyway, but you know? unhinged) etc. Others can carry on with life shedding many of the more egregious parts of the protective protocol. Things will slowly return to normal (possibly a new one) even if 20-30% refuse to get vaccinated and also do not naturally get infected to recover and get immunity for the 6month to a year window (apparently) or die.
> 
> ...



The only problem I see with what you're proposing is that AFAIK masks are much more effective preventing the mask wearer from infecting others; less so for protecting themselves. I'd propose that everyone on a train (or other enclosed space with other people present) must either provide proof of vaccination or wear a mask.

Edit to add: Maybe I've misread you, and you're suggesting that in addition to a vaccine, folks at higher risk might want to wear a mask too? Belt and suspenders?


----------



## jis (Nov 17, 2020)

tricia said:


> The only problem I see with what you're proposing is that AFAIK masks are much more effective preventing the mask wearer from infecting others; less so for protecting themselves. I'd propose that everyone on a train (or other enclosed space with other people present) must either provide proof of vaccination or wear a mask.
> 
> Edit to add: Maybe I've misread you, and you're suggesting that in addition to a vaccine, folks at higher risk might want to wear a mask too? Belt and suspenders?


The last paragraph is what I am thinking.

BTW, I would imagine what should be more important is the presence of immunity, rather than merely having got an injection. Immunity can occur in at least two ways - having been infected and recovered and vaccination. So it might be more meaningful to require a certificate of a high quality (specificity and sensitivity) serum test showing presence of immunity rather than just having taken a vaccine which may or may not trigger an adequate immunity response in all individuals, depending on the state of their immune system.

BTW, I think it would be difficult to administer a "proof of vaccination or wear a mask" protocol in reality, specially in the face of a bunch of demented morons running around trying to make a political point.


----------



## tricia (Nov 17, 2020)

jis said:


> The last paragraph is what I am thinking.
> 
> BTW, I would imagine what should be more important is the presence of immunity, rather than merely having got an injection. Immunity can occur in at least two ways - having been infected and recovered and vaccination. So it might be more meaningful to require a certificate of a high quality (specificity and sensitivity) serum test showing presence of immunity rather than just having taken a vaccine which may or may not trigger an adequate immunity response in all individuals, depending on the state of their immune system.
> 
> BTW, I think it would be difficult to administer a "proof of vaccination or wear a mask" protocol in reality, specially in the face of a bunch of demented morons running around trying to make a political point.



Dunno about the "presence of immunity" without a vaccine. IIRC, having had COVID doesn't preclude catching it again.

I disagree with your "difficult to administer" point. My hairdresser, who weighs maybe 98 lbs, manages this quite nicely: No mask, no entry to salon. So do a bunch of stores I patronize--some also set up a hand-sanitizer station at the front door and require both mask and de-germed hands for entry. I live among many Trump voters, BTW. 

If the larger chain stores would actually enforce the mask mandate currently in place in my state, I believe infection rates would plummet and wider public acceptance would follow. Instead, many stores put up a sign that masks are required, but refuse to confront anyone in their store who's not wearing a mask. 

Bringing it back to Amtrak, on their trains they seem to have mostly got this right, treating it like they do smoking: If you're not wearing a mask, you're refused entry or put off the train. At least one exception has been posted on AU (in the Lounge, I think, but don't remember which train--it was one of the regionals IIRC). And I personally experienced an all-night bustitution due to a freight derailment on the Sunset Ltd's line, where mask wearing and social distancing weren't enforced. 

Amtrak can and should do better, and be absolutely consistent about enforcing its COVID protocols. Once a vaccine is widely available, those protocols will need to be altered--and the details of that will depend on how effective the vaccine is, now long it remains effective, and perhaps other factors.


----------



## jis (Nov 17, 2020)

tricia said:


> Dunno about the "presence of immunity" without a vaccine. IIRC, having had COVID doesn't preclude catching it again.


So you really believe that getting the disease does not produce immunity, but vaccine does? Immunity is conferred by the body reacting to what it thinks is an infection. This can be either through a real infection or a vaccine, which fools the body into thinking it is getting infected but in a way that the bad effects of infection are mostly absent.

And of course, immunity acquired by whatever means clearly last for a limited period and no one is quite sure how long that is yet. So actually having COVID or getting vaccinated does not preclude catching it again. The question is how soon after acquiring the immunity.

My point about masks is, it is much easier to enforce a "masks for all" protocol than "masks for a selected few" protocol, specially over a long period of time, such as train rides are.

Incidentally at present most of the international travel waivers of COVID related travel bans is based on testing for infection and immunity, and if only testing for infection, it involves 14 day quarantine upon arrival, after traveling based on tested lack of infection before flying.


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 17, 2020)

jis said:


> So you really believe that getting the disease does not produce immunity, but vaccine does? Immunity is conferred by the body reacting to what it thinks is an infection. This can be either through a real infection or a vaccine, which fools the body into thinking it is getting infected but in a way that the bad effects infection are mostly absent.
> 
> And of course, immunity acquired by whatever means clearly last for a limited period and no one is quite sure how long that is yet. So actually having COVID or getting vaccinated does not preclude catching it again. The question is how soon after acquiring the immunity.


Usually both having the infection and getting vaccinated will provide future immunity for a certain amount of time, but not always. Early in my clinical laboratory career, I encountered a situation where an individual (my co-worker, actually) failed to generate an antibody response to rubella vaccinations. Rubella can cause severe birth defects, like deafness, mental retardation, death, in fetuses/babies of infected mothers, so it's part of prenatal care to check the antibody levels in the mothers and if not detectable, get vaccinated for it, and check it again. My co-worker had gone through 3 rounds of vaccinations (I think with different rubella formulations, but I'm not sure), but still did not generate any anti-rubella antibodies. Her immunological system was in all other ways normal to the best of her knowledge (and she had some!), but her body would not respond to rubella vaccination. I therefore suspect that one possibility that some people can get Covid19 again is related to a combination of their own idiosyncratic immune system (Everybody's idiosyncratic in their own way...!) and the dose of Covid19 they got for their infections and indeed perhaps the timing, but I'm hoping it's not strictly the latter.

Edit: My co-worker was not yet pregnant, but wanted to have another baby.


----------



## jis (Nov 17, 2020)

Barb Stout said:


> Usually both having the infection and getting vaccinated will provide future immunity for a certain amount of time, but not always. Early in my clinical laboratory career, I encountered a situation where an individual (my co-worker, actually) failed to generate an antibody response to rubella vaccinations. Rubella can cause severe birth defects, like deafness, mental retardation, death, in fetuses/babies of infected mothers, so it's part of prenatal care to check the antibody levels in the mothers and if not detectable, get vaccinated for it, and check it again. My co-worker had gone through 3 rounds of vaccinations (I think with different rubella formulations, but I'm not sure), but still did not generate any anti-rubella antibodies. Her immunological system was in all other ways normal to the best of her knowledge (and she had some!), but her body would not respond to rubella vaccination. I therefore suspect that one possibility that some people can get Covid19 again is related to a combination of their own idiosyncratic immune system (Everybody's idiosyncratic in their own way...!) and the dose of Covid19 they got for their infections and indeed perhaps the timing, but I'm hoping it's not strictly the latter.
> 
> Edit: My co-worker was not yet pregnant, but wanted to have another baby.


This is exactly the sort of issue that I was thinking about. Ultimately it is the presence of the antibodies that matters, irrespective of how they got there I think. And yes, neither an infection, nor a vaccine necessarily guarantees anything. It is all a percentages game, and how long it lasts is another thing that we don't know for sure in case of COVID-19 yet.


----------



## willem (Nov 17, 2020)

jis said:


> [...] a bunch of demented morons running around trying to make a political point.





> Refusing to wear a mask doesn’t make you a patriot.
> It makes you a disease vector.


----------



## MARC Rider (Nov 17, 2020)

jis said:


> BTW, I think it would be difficult to administer a "proof of vaccination or wear a mask" protocol in reality, specially in the face of a bunch of demented morons running around trying to make a political point.


I'm not so sure, if Third World banana republics can enforce vaccination requirements for entry, surely Amtrak can do the same. After all, we're now close to being a banana republic ourselves. All it would require is a major deployment of APD at the entrances to the platforms checking vaccination certificates and being suitably intimidating to the demented morons who run around without masks. A few arrests should clear the air and let the demented morons know that management is serious about health protocols.

Some years ago, the gate dragons used to actually check tickets before they let you out on the platform. It was a pointless pain in the neck, but it wasn't difficult to administer. A health check would actually have some purpose, so I wouldn't complain about it like I did with the ticket check.


----------



## John Santos (Nov 18, 2020)

jis said:


> This is exactly the sort of issue that I was thinking about. Ultimately it is the presence of the antibodies that matters, irrespective of how they got there I think. And yes, neither an infection, nor a vaccine necessarily guarantees anything. It is all a percentages game, and how long it lasts is another thing that we don't know for sure in case of COVID-19 yet.


Not quite, as far as I understand it. Antibodies do show your immune system would react quickly to a new infection, but not necessarily quickly enough to prevent a case of the disease. (Bad news, and perhaps why people can get Covid-19 more than once.) On the other hand, the immune system can remember antigens and build a very quick response when stimulated by an antigen, thus creating immunity, even when there are no antibodies present in the normal, unstimulated state. IIUC, immunity to many diseases, whether induced by the disease or by a vaccine, works this way.

Also, the immune system works by detecting some foreign protein or genetic material (antigen) produced by the germ (virus, bacteria, or other parasite) and remembering it for future infections. The antigen or antigens selected by the immune system are not necessarily the same as the ones contained in a vaccine, and sometimes the antigens in a vaccine are MORE effective or produce longer lasting effects than natural immunity. It depends on the virus and the vaccine. In other words, the immunity from a vaccine might last less time or longer than the immunity from the virus. The problem is at this time, we just don't know.

We also don't know if immunity (from the virus or from one of the vaccines) always wears off in a few months, or if it usually lasts for years but in some people or under some conditions, wears off quickly, or if the re-infection cases are actually false positives in either the initial or second case, or the person never actually recovered and still had an active infection even after appearing to recover. The virus could hide somewhere, like chicken pox, and then re-emerge months later. This is another unknown. But after almost a year and millions of cases, there should be enough repeat cases to draw some limits. The answers should emerge in a few months to some of these questions. It will take anywhere from 6 months to several years to know how long vaccine-induced immunity lasts.

The good news about both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is the 90-95% effectiveness comes from actually observing the rate of infection in double blind tests. The people who got the real vaccine showed 5 to 10% of the number of cases as the equal number of people who got the placebo, and the number of cases in the people who got the placebo is close to the expected number for unvaccinated people, so there isn't some hidden selection effect. (For example, there weren't far more insusceptible people in the experimental group than in the general population.) 

Another item of good news is that even if the immunity is only short-lived, at 90%, with good penetration, it should knock down infection levels low enough that contract tracing and isolation of exposed people would be able to stamp out any outbreaks in the long run. Better, cheaper, faster testing would help enormously with this, but only if the infection rate is low enough.

I recently heard of a home test that works be smearing a nasal swab (Q-tip) onto a specially treated strip of paper and observing if it changes color. It costs about 30 cents, and takes less than a minute. If this is true (it could be totally bogus or a ridiculous exaggeration), then it would make contact tracing and isolation much easier. If you were exposed to infected person X, someone will come to your door with a box of a weeks worth of strips and tell you to isolate and test everyone once a day. If no one is positive in a week, you're all clear. If anyone tests positive then call the 800 number. And give us a list of everyone you've been in close contact with since you were exposed to person X. This kind of contact tracing really only works if there are a very small number of infected people, but it is extremely effective.

Very few people are immune to Yersinia pestis, there is no vaccine for it, it is endemic in animals in many parts of the world but very few people die of bubonic plague any more because of good tracing and effective treatments. There is hope!


----------



## jis (Nov 18, 2020)

At the end of the day as far as tests go, what matters is what their specificity and sensitivity ratings are, in order to get some idea of how useful they will be. There are a lot of rather poor tests going around these days which may give a false sense of security.

In the US we have indeed got to get our detection and tracing act together. But until this silliness about "personal responsibility will take care of everything without any organized attempts to do anything" and "vaccines be damned" crowds can be effectively dealt with, there is low probability that we will get to any semblance of normality anytime soon


----------



## Rasputin (Nov 18, 2020)

Over the past few years I have been in the habit of printing out and saving restaurant reviews that I have come across online for various cities that we intend to re-visit in our Amtrak travels. 

It occurred to me recently that most of those reviews are probably now worthless because many of the restaurants have closed and may not reopen. I should throw them all out and start collecting reviews again only a few months before our intended trip.


----------



## Lonestar648 (Nov 18, 2020)

These rush to market vaccines, cutting as much as 9 years off the testing cycle, pose an unknown, long term side effects. Because they will stay unknown when the first public distribution commences, Because of this concern, I just read some leaders want to start vaccine distribution in prisons. Hopefully, there will not be any major side affects, but if there are, we need to be prepared for another delay. With everything learned and spent on this pandemic, I would expect our government to be better prepared for the next event, but I am not holding my breath.

So, if there are additional delays, how long can Congress financially support our transportation systems, specifically Amtrak?


----------



## tricia (Nov 18, 2020)

Lonestar648 said:


> These rush to market vaccines, cutting as much as 9 years off the testing cycle, pose an unknown, long term side effects. Because they will stay unknown when the first public distribution commences, Because of this concern, I just read some leaders want to start vaccine distribution in prisons. ...



No one should be given any medical treatment without informed consent in a setting where they're free to say no. Using prisoners as guinea pigs is deeply wrong.


----------



## jis (Nov 18, 2020)

Paging Dr. Hamblin: Will I Slowly Get Immunity Just Going About My Life?


A slight exposure to the coronavirus isn’t likely to lead to lasting protection. At least not yet.




www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Dakota 400 (Nov 18, 2020)

Rasputin said:


> Over the past few years I have been in the habit of printing out and saving restaurant reviews that I have come across online for various cities that we intend to re-visit in our Amtrak travels.
> 
> It occurred to me recently that most of those reviews are probably now worthless because many of the restaurants have closed and may not reopen. I should throw them all out and start collecting reviews again only a few months before our intended trip.



I have done the same type of saving information that I thought would be useful during my travels. The uncertainty of it all is the reason that I am not planning any travel that requires an overnight stay currently.


----------



## Bob Dylan (Nov 18, 2020)

tricia said:


> No one should be given any medical treatment without informed consent in a setting where they're free to say no. Using prisoners as guinea pigs is deeply wrong.


We hung German Doctors and their Bosses for experimenting on Prisioners, and right here our own Government denied Black people treatment for Syphillis and used Military Members for Medical Trials of various types without their knowledge!


----------



## west point (Nov 18, 2020)

immunizations between countries are funny. Yellow fever inoculations are required for it when passing between certain South AM countries for example. But not from USA. My concern is how widely has the test age protocols been ? Example persons over 80 and the very young including infants.

Read an article that it appears from preliminary research that 80% of cases are caught from so called super spreaders. If so contact tracing protocols needs to be changed.


----------



## lonewolfette9847 (Nov 18, 2020)

You have to have a ticket to ride Amtrak, so where’s the harm of enforcing mask, vaccine, or any other possible treatment (heard about a nasal spray that would essentially kill the virus before it could enter the body).

My boss at work has no problem telling people they need to wear a mask to enter the building.

I don’t see any difference.


----------



## jis (Nov 19, 2020)

west point said:


> Read an article that it appears from preliminary research that 80% of cases are caught from so called super spreaders. If so contact tracing protocols needs to be changed.


It would help to first actually execute the testing protocol whatever it is, before changing the protocol and continuing to not execute on it.

Currently positivity rates are so high that contact tracing, such as it is, is acknowledged to be more or less ineffective in most of the badly affected states. So first there has to be enough testing.


----------



## me_little_me (Nov 19, 2020)

Rasputin said:


> Over the past few years I have been in the habit of printing out and saving restaurant reviews that I have come across online for various cities that we intend to re-visit in our Amtrak travels.
> 
> It occurred to me recently that most of those reviews are probably now worthless because many of the restaurants have closed and may not reopen. I should throw them all out and start collecting reviews again only a few months before our intended trip.


My Tripadvisor reviews now include mention of how they are handling Covid (staff masks, social distancing, customer masks, enforcement, etc.) The overall rating goes down if I see problems. I figure if they can't fix the obvious, then what's going on behind the scenes?


----------



## jis (Nov 20, 2020)

MARC Rider said:


> I'm not so sure, if Third World banana republics can enforce vaccination requirements for entry, surely Amtrak can do the same. After all, we're now close to being a banana republic ourselves. All it would require is a major deployment of APD at the entrances to the platforms checking vaccination certificates and being suitably intimidating to the demented morons who run around without masks. A few arrests should clear the air and let the demented morons know that management is serious about health protocols.
> 
> Some years ago, the gate dragons used to actually check tickets before they let you out on the platform. It was a pointless pain in the neck, but it wasn't difficult to administer. A health check would actually have some purpose, so I wouldn't complain about it like I did with the ticket check.


I have not suggested that it is impossible to check vaccine letters at the time of boarding and disallowing boarding to those that do not have one. The only variation that I suggested is that it may be more useful to require in addition a recent serum test result since that is more immediate proof that someone is actually likely to have immunity than merely having gotten a vaccine.

Additionally what I had suggested (and that apparently has been not comprehended by many apparently) is that if you allow some without a letter to board assuming that you will selectively enforce a mask rule on them for the length of the train journey, while letting others travel mask free, that sort of a protocol would be hard to enforce since that would involved continuously checking vaccine letter on board perhaps at random from everyone who is not wearing a mask. Alternatively one could require them to wear a large marker of some sort, which of course they are as likely to wear as the mask given the psychology of some folks. Alternatively of course, the non-certificate folks could be sequestered away in a separate sealed car of their own as a viable and effective option.

Not allowing anyone without either a vaccination letter or a serum test result showing they are likely to have immunity would be easiest to administer. Even though that is not necessarily a 100% thing, it should be good enough.

As for Third World Countries, many of them run a much better passenger rail system than the US. So just because a third world country can do something is no evidence that the US can do the same.  Most third world countries also seem to be able to control their pandemic outbreak better than the US as things stand today anyway.

The problem in the US is entirely sociological and lack of political willingness to do something. It is not a lack of talent for dreaming up some workable protocol.


----------



## MARC Rider (Nov 20, 2020)

jis said:


> As for Third World Countries, many of them run a much better passenger rail system than the US. So just because a third world country can do something is no evidence that the US can do the same.  Most third world countries also seem to be able to control their pandemic outbreak better than the US as things stand today anyway.



That I agree with 100%.


----------



## jiml (Nov 20, 2020)

Amtrak will have to be very selective about a start date should they (or any other business) choose to require vaccination for admission. Given that the roll-out of a vaccine may take many months and will likely prioritize who gets it, there could be a long period where only healthcare workers and those over 70 would be able to ride the train, etc. That won't help their already struggling 3-day-a-week business model.


----------



## jis (Nov 20, 2020)

jiml said:


> Amtrak will have to be very selective about a start date should they (or any other business) choose to require vaccination for admission. Given that the roll-out of a vaccine may take many months and will likely prioritize who gets it, there could be a long period where only healthcare workers and those over 70 would be able to ride the train, etc. That won't help their already struggling 3-day-a-week business model.


However, requiring a recent antibody test result showing positive and/or a PCR test showing negative could be instituted much quicker, 

As a matter of fact there are tour packages now operating that require such, though they accept an Antigen test showing negative. We of course know that most of the Antigen tests available now lack in sensitivity so that a negative is not a very good indication of absence of the virus. They have good specificity, so a positive is quite trustworthy. But it is a trustworthy negative that we need, and they do not have that.

Many international flights that are operating today require a recent negative virus test, and often upon arrival unless an acceptable antibody test result can be produced, it still involves 14 day quarantine. Of course very often one has to meet additional citizenship or residence criteria or proof of emergency or some other special dispensation to get on the flight too.


----------



## me_little_me (Nov 20, 2020)

jiml said:


> Given that the roll-out of a vaccine may take many months and will likely prioritize who gets it, there could be a long period where only healthcare workers and those over 70 would be able to ride the train, etc. That won't help their already struggling 3-day-a-week business model.


There is no guarantee that us old folk will have priority. To stop the virus, it is necessary for those who interact with the most people in the worst way possible to get vaccinated. Those of us older folk who hunker down are more likely to die if we get it but less likely to get it in the first place.
It may be politically better to give it to us but worse for stopping the disease but politics usually wins over science and common sense no matter who is running the government.


----------



## jis (Nov 20, 2020)

me_little_me said:


> There is no guarantee that us old folk will have priority. To stop the virus, it is necessary for those who interact with the most people in the worst way possible to get vaccinated. Those of us older folk who hunker down are more likely to die if we get it but less likely to get it in the first place.
> It may be politically better to give it to us but worse for stopping the disease but politics usually wins over science and common sense no matter who is running the government.


I suspect that all workers who are customer facing in some form will get priority, with Healthcare and Emergency workers at the head of the line, because they specifically work in the most hostile environment as far as danger of infection goes. I am sure all retail workers, school teachers etc. are in the next most hostile environment, together with students and such.

Among the older people I think those that are at adult and assisted living facilities are in a more hostile environment than those hunkered down at home. Such considerations should go into a meaningful prioritization scheme. CDC is supposed to come out with a recommendation on this sort of thing soon.


----------



## me_little_me (Nov 20, 2020)

jis said:


> I suspect that all workers who are customer facing in some form will get priority, with Healthcare and Emergency workers at the head of the line, because they specifically work in the most hostile environment as far as danger of infection goes. I am sure all retail workers, school teachers etc. are in the next most hostile environment, together with students and such.
> 
> Among the older people I think those that are at adult and assisted living facilities are in a more hostile environment than those hunkered down at home. Such considerations should go into a meaningful prioritization scheme. CDC is supposed to come out with a recommendation on this sort of thing soon.


Priority:
Politicians
Wealthy and family
Health Care Workers
Lesser politicians (they take time to game the system)
Lesser wealthy and family (they take time to game the system)
Police, Fire, Military
Managers of city, state and federal workers
City, state, federal workers who are customer facing.
Relatives of politicians
Donors to politicians
Friends of the above

Everyone else


----------



## Lonestar648 (Nov 21, 2020)

My daughter, a charge nurse on a floor with Covid patients has been told by Hospital administration that nurses on Covid floors and EMS staff will have the highest priority once the vaccine is available and the hospital certifies it is safe for their staff. She said hospitals can not afford to lose more nurses to Covid, and EMS in all cities has been using every certified paramedic due to so many regular EMS out with Covid.


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 21, 2020)

I was under the impression that the letter from the Feds informing states to start planning for Covid19 vaccination rollout and logistics (the one that was sent out in early October, I think, and got a lot of people upset) also "allowed/mandated/whatever" the states to make their own priority list of who gets the vaccination first, second, etc. NM's list is more specific in that the first to get vaccinated are health care workers who have co-morbidities or who are older, followed by health care workers without co-morbidities and younger. I imagine that the list is this fine-grained because of concerns of vaccine availability. My main point for this post is I think the priority is based on what each state wants, but I believe there already is guidance from some Fed organization, maybe the CDC.


----------



## IndyLions (Nov 24, 2020)

Anti-Vaxxers might not be flying Qantas to or from Australia any time soon...

Qantas boss says passengers will need to be vaccinated for international flights


----------



## jis (Nov 24, 2020)

I wonder how much time it will be before a thriving black market in fake vaccination certificates comes up.


----------



## Dakota 400 (Nov 24, 2020)

IndyLions said:


> Anti-Vaxxers might not be flying Qantas to or from Australia any time soon...
> 
> Qantas boss says passengers will need to be vaccinated for international flights



I expect Air New Zealand will also require the same thing. New Zealand has been quite successful in dealing with Covid-19. 

Did you know that the Prime Minister of New Zealand has spoken with the President-Elect and offered her country's Health Department's assistance in dealing with our problems?


----------



## jis (Nov 24, 2020)

Dakota 400 said:


> Did you know that the Prime Minister of New Zealand has spoken with the President-Elect and offered her country's Health Department's assistance in dealing with our problems?


Yeah I saw that. Interesting times as the US slowly rejoins the civilized world!


----------



## jiml (Nov 24, 2020)

They had an interview with the head of Qantas on the news tonight. He has an expectation that countries will incorporate proof of vaccination into passports and that a simple medical certificate would be insufficient.


----------



## IndyLions (Nov 25, 2020)

jiml said:


> They had an interview with the head of Qantas on the news tonight. He has an expectation that countries will incorporate proof of vaccination into passports and that a simple medical certificate would be insufficient.



I don’t doubt that at all - and welcome it. What won’t likely happen is incorporating that feature into State issued IDs/Drivers’ Licenses - although that would make sense.


----------



## Ziv (Nov 25, 2020)

Way back in the day we needed to carry "The Yellow Bible" to get visas to certain countries. It was a fold out pamphlet that you had stamped with your innoculations. It was going out of use when I started traveling internationally in the early 1990's. 
I imagine we will go back to something similar.



jiml said:


> They had an interview with the head of Qantas on the news tonight. He has an expectation that countries will incorporate proof of vaccination into passports and that a simple medical certificate would be insufficient.


----------



## jis (Nov 25, 2020)

jiml said:


> They had an interview with the head of Qantas on the news tonight. He has an expectation that countries will incorporate proof of vaccination into passports and that a simple medical certificate would be insufficient.


It will take quite a while to incorporate that information in a Passport though. There will have to be an interim solution. They will also have to figure out a way of easily updating information in a trustworthy way in the Passport chip every so often, since the vaccination info will presumably need to be updated every year or more or less frequently depending on how long the immunity lasts. So while it is a good sentiment, realizing it will take a while. As a starter the Data element to hold the information has to be standardized and added to the Passport data standard.


----------



## jiml (Nov 25, 2020)

jis said:


> It will take quite a while to incorporate that information in a Passport though. There will have to be an interim solution. They will also have to figure out a way of easily updating information in a trustworthy way in the Passport chip every so often, since the vaccination info will presumably need to be updated every year or more or less frequently depending on how long the immunity lasts. So while it is a good sentiment, realizing it will take a while. As a starter the Data element to hold the information has to be standardized and added to the Passport data standard.


That was my thought as well when listening to the interview. While he stated it like a fact, it rang more like "what he'd like to happen". As I alluded in a prior post regarding Amtrak, it's not like any carrier is going to be able to impose a requirement like this anytime soon or they'll be risking empty trains/planes until the vaccination rate catches up - which could be months. If you add in the delays by bureaucracy to implement identification it could be years for an industry already struggling to survive.


----------



## Manny T (Nov 25, 2020)

If the vaccine is just 95% effective, and its effectiveness degrades over time, and it varies in different populations, and you need to be revaccinated periodically, not sure what a passport verification of vaccination will ultimately prove, other than a false sense of reassurance.


----------



## jis (Nov 25, 2020)

Manny T said:


> If the vaccine is just 95% effective, and its effectiveness degrades over time, and it varies in different populations, and you need to be revaccinated periodically, not sure what a passport verification of vaccination will ultimately prove, other than a false sense of reassurance.


It would be more sensible to work on a very sensitive and fast virus test that can be reasonably administered to everyone before boarding a flight. Still not perfect, but it at least detects the presence of the virus directly instead of depending on long winded possibly erroneous, statistical assumptions based on vaccination of various sorts with different efficacy and different periods of effectiveness, possibly.

Moral of the story is, keep you N95 or better masks on most of the time when in enclosed space, specially if you are in a high risk category. There are a few really nice transparent masks coming on the market as we speak. Come to think of it, it could become a space age fashion statement!


----------



## Lonestar648 (Nov 25, 2020)

I think we are dealing with the old saying: The more you know, the less you know. A year from now we will know so much more about Covid, but we will also learn how much more we need to research. For Amtrak, and other transportation companies, it is going to be a long road with constantly changing CDC, WHO, and International governmental standards. This will make many potential passengers refrain from traveling long distance because different cities, counties, and states could even have different entry requirements.


----------



## PRR 60 (Nov 25, 2020)

Requesting that posts in this thread have some tie to Amtrak travel after introduction of vaccines. Other posts regarding COVID are welcome in the open Lounge topic.


----------



## me_little_me (Nov 25, 2020)

jis said:


> It will take quite a while to incorporate that information in a Passport though. There will have to be an interim solution. They will also have to figure out a way of easily updating information in a trustworthy way in the Passport chip every so often, since the vaccination info will presumably need to be updated every year or more or less frequently depending on how long the immunity lasts. So while it is a good sentiment, realizing it will take a while. As a starter the Data element to hold the information has to be standardized and added to the Passport data standard.


I would think that a QR code or some such stamped on a passport page or similar document provided by the to Amtrak that contains en encrypted version of the passport number (or drivers licence information) ) intermixed with the date and location of the vaccination could be made to work for Amtrak and airlines.


----------



## Ferroequinologist (Nov 26, 2020)

me_little_me said:


> I would think that a QR code or some such stamped on a passport page or similar document provided by the to Amtrak that contains en encrypted version of the passport number (or drivers licence information) ) intermixed with the date and location of the vaccination could be made to work for Amtrak and airlines.



Such a requirement would surely be challenged as a violation of civil rights and very likely would reach the Supreme Court. Incidentally, there is a recent article in the Washington Post about how over half of doctors and health care workers are wary of taking the Covid vaccines. They do not believe that there is enough information available at this time to know how safe they are. With so much uncertainty I don't see how government can compel people to take a Covid vaccine and go so far as to embed vaccination information in ID cards.


----------



## tricia (Nov 26, 2020)

Ferroequinologist said:


> Such a requirement would surely be challenged as a violation of civil rights and very likely would reach the Supreme Court. Incidentally, there is a recent article in the Washington Post about how over half of doctors and health care workers are wary of taking the Covid vaccines. They do not believe that there is enough information available at this time to know how safe they are. With so much uncertainty I don't see how government can compel people to take a Covid vaccine and go so far as to embed vaccination information in ID cards.



No compulsion--no one is being forced to ride Amtrak, but if you choose to ride Amtrak (rather than, say, drive in a car where no ID is required), you already are required to show ID that already holds a variety of personal information. And currently required to wear a mask.

It's obviously too early to nail down the specifics of when and how vaccines might or might not be required. In the grand tradition of AU, we're speculating far and wide here.


----------



## Wolverine72 (Nov 26, 2020)

I’ll get the vaccine when my Doctor tells me it’s time. Not a politician or the little guy from the CDC. I used to hold the CDC, and the FBI, up as the ultimate in their fields. Not so much anymore.


----------



## jebr (Nov 26, 2020)

Ferroequinologist said:


> With so much uncertainty I don't see how government can compel people to take a Covid vaccine and go so far as to embed vaccination information in ID cards.



I would be shocked if COVID-19 vaccine information would ever be required to be stored on a standard ID card issued by a state or federal government in the United States. It took nearly 15 years to get REAL ID started in all 50 states, and the underlying stated rationale for it was far more bipartisan (protection against terrorism) than the response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been. I'd be surprised if there's even a universal standard rolled out for optional inclusion of said information on ID. There's basically no way to put it on an existing ID that'd be even remotely verifiable (maybe on the magstripe, but that's not human-readable and adding a sticker would almost certainly be trivial to fake.)

All of that is even before considering the decentralized nature of the rollout of the vaccine, and the fact that there's no universal photo ID for every American. The vaccination distribution will be handled by state and local departments of health, in partnership with local clinics and pharmacies. There's currently no national database that I'm aware of that stores who got which specific vaccine, especially to a level where you could definitively prove that this particular person got this particular vaccine. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of app or certificate for vaccination available to show voluntarily, but something that's federally-driven seems unlikely given that vaccinations will likely start within the next month or so, and there's no current platform set up for that information.

Same on the international stage. We might eventually see some sort of vaccination "visa" in passports, but as far as I'm aware that doesn't exist in a universal, stored-in-the-passport standard, and any new standard will take time to develop. What's more likely is that you'll see vaccination records required to be issued a visa, and possibly some tightening on who needs to get a visa before arrival, especially for people from countries which have a large non-COVID-19-vaccinated population.

What's most likely to happen in the US is that, while the vaccine is never required for all citizens, after a year or two enough people get it that it's virtually a non-issue for the population at large. In the interim, you might see some places "require" a vaccine to enter or travel on that mode of transportation, but it's about as well checked as the current verification processes for "have you been in contact with anyone who's had COVID-19 in the past 14 days, have you had symptoms, etc." - basically, checkmark a box or sign a piece of paper attesting to this, but there'll be no verification of that. Other countries may handle things differently, but the current political structures in the US make it nearly impossible for any sort of universal database to take hold, and so verification will almost certainly be difficult-to-impossible, especially on a large scale.

As for Amtrak? They might "require" it at some point, but it's almost certainly going to be simply added to the text that you checkmark when buying a ticket stating that you'll follow all of Amtrak's rules, or what airlines require when checking in for a flight. Even if Amtrak tries to offer a "vaccinated-people" train car, I don't have a ton of confidence for that to be universally enforced or well-executed. Even then, those sorts of things likely won't happen until we're at a point where everyone who wants a vaccine has been able to get one - until then, it'll be mask wearing and social distancing.


----------



## jis (Nov 26, 2020)

Vaccination information is going to be dicey to be reliably useful for anything over a significant period of time, given that different vaccines will have different efficacy and temporal effectiveness.


----------



## Cho Cho Charlie (Nov 26, 2020)

To simply go to a public school (and probably most private schools too) already requires proof of vaccines for communicable diseases. A vaccine for Covid-19 will simply be added to the list.

IMHO, to date, this vaccine requirement hasn't been declared to be a violation of personal rights, and I doubt adding Covid-19 will change that. 

Its really not a question of a personal choice to protect yourself, or not. That's because its to protect others, just like masks are today. No one has a basic right to spread a deadly disease to others.


----------



## jis (Nov 26, 2020)

Oh yeah, there should be no problem in listing another vaccine in the vaccine record, and there should be no problem in requiring the production of a certificate with proper seal or emblem on it for accessing various services either.

My question throughout has been to what extent I would shed my mask based on that certification. Maybe I will. Maybe I won't. We'll have to see how the actual infection profile goes.


----------



## me_little_me (Nov 26, 2020)

Ferroequinologist said:


> With so much uncertainty I don't see how government can compel people to take a Covid vaccine and go so far as to embed vaccination information in ID cards.


I think you may have somewhat misinterpreted my suggestion. I was not suggesting the vaccine information be put on the Drivers License but that the Drivers License information (or other way to identify that the person claiming to have taken the vaccine) can be identified as having done so. The idea is that you have something that states you have been vaccinated along with some evidence that the evidence provided is for you. Stamping it in a passport could be an option for the convenience of the passenger so as not to have to carry yet another document. But if that other "document" was just a scannable code, then if it contained your DL or passport number or other recognized proof that it belonged to you, it would be simpler to process. Otherwise the document would have to have some evidence itself that it was yours and that would take longer to process you. It should be acceptable to have such a document at your choice.


----------



## Qapla (Nov 26, 2020)

Too bad a COVID vaccination won't be as easy to check as a small pox vaccination - no card or stamp needed ... just show your upper arm


----------



## Dakota 400 (Nov 26, 2020)

Wolverine72 said:


> I’ll get the vaccine when my Doctor tells me it’s time. I used to hold the CDC up as the ultimate in their fields. Not so much anymore.



That's the way I feel. Why has my opinion changed?


----------



## Lonestar648 (Nov 27, 2020)

The big question is who is going to have the computer resources to track who has taken which vaccine and when and by whom? CDC? I hope not. States? Each state having autonomy to create and maintain their own tracking system. How would a company like Amtrak integrate with 50 different tracking systems, and what about international Amtrak customers? How can Amtrak interface multiple and different tracking systems, or will this be a DOT function for Amtrak and the airlines to use? If they just take the word of a filled out form just like the schools do, how would Amtrak or the Airlines know what is true? No one has thought this out, what will be needed in the future for government, for transportation, for state border crossings, for entry into school, for working in a large factory, and the list goes on and on. So what will life be like after a year with a vaccine? How many will be willing to take the vaccine? Post pandemic life may be something we have never thought of as real. How would Amtrak operate if each state established check points to insure who enter has been vaccinated. Unfortunately, I feel our postpandemic lives will have more government control than we have ever dreamed about.


----------



## Ziv (Nov 27, 2020)

Lonestar, how about my panglossian vision of 2022? 
By late 2021 more than 80% of Americans (Norteamericano's for our friends South of the border) and more than 90% of Europeans have either had Covid or have had the two injections and seem to have at least some resistance. If traveling we are still required to carry a Yellow Innoculation pamphlet that is stamped by your doctor showing that you have had the vaccine or had the disease, but that is it. No central database needed. Since some form of herd immunity was realized when we passed 60% it is relatively safe for people to travel. Though there are occasional small outbreaks of Covid from time, people are sick of the shutdowns and the extreme social distancing and have largely, but not entirely, gone back to their lives pre-covid. Most still wear masks indoors when out in public, but it isn't mandated at this point. Movie theaters are still hurting because they are allowed just 50% capacity. Cafes may be limited as well, albeit maybe a bit less drastically. 
People over 70 get used to either taking the risk by going out to indoor public spaces, or choose to stay at home or enjoy their time outdoors.
We would treat Covid the way people treated the Spanish Flu in 1921, as a painful lesson but not one that shapes every move we make going forward. Covid has been the death of "just" 1,440,00 people worldwide and 270,000 Americans. The Spanish Flu killed 50,000,000 or more in a world with less than half the population we have today. We recovered then and moved forward without crippling our freedoms. We will do so again. All we have to fear is fear itself.



Lonestar648 said:


> The big question is who is going to have the computer resources to track who has taken which vaccine and when and by whom? CDC? I hope not. States? Each state having autonomy to create and maintain their own tracking system. How would a company like Amtrak integrate with 50 different tracking systems, and what about international Amtrak customers? How can Amtrak interface multiple and different tracking systems, or will this be a DOT function for Amtrak and the airlines to use? If they just take the word of a filled out form just like the schools do, how would Amtrak or the Airlines know what is true? No one has thought this out, what will be needed in the future for government, for transportation, for state border crossings, for entry into school, for working in a large factory, and the list goes on and on. So what will life be like after a year with a vaccine? How many will be willing to take the vaccine? Post pandemic life may be something we have never thought of as real. How would Amtrak operate if each state established check points to insure who enter has been vaccinated. Unfortunately, I feel our postpandemic lives will have more government control than we have ever dreamed about.


----------



## jis (Nov 27, 2020)

There are already data consolidators in place who will also consolidate vaccination data. Even today very few people or organizations actually interface with each state individually to get the data. That is done by consolidators like The COVD Project and others, and those that need across the board data and analysis go to those consolidators. Amtrak like everyone else will simply set up a relationship with one of the consolidators and use data and analysis from there.

As for individual's vaccination status, that will mostly be handed through vaccination certificate books that have already existed, issued by the health department or suitably agreed upon government entities. They might provide verification portals perhaps even using a WHO specified interface. Of course, one hopes that the US would have rejoined the civilized world by then.


----------



## me_little_me (Nov 27, 2020)

Lonestar648 said:


> The big question is who is going to have the computer resources to track who has taken which vaccine and when and by whom? CDC? I hope not. States? Each state having autonomy to create and maintain their own tracking system. How would a company like Amtrak integrate with 50 different tracking systems, and what about international Amtrak customers? How can Amtrak interface multiple and different tracking systems, or will this be a DOT function for Amtrak and the airlines to use? If they just take the word of a filled out form just like the schools do, how would Amtrak or the Airlines know what is true? No one has thought this out, what will be needed in the future for government, for transportation, for state border crossings, for entry into school, for working in a large factory, and the list goes on and on. So what will life be like after a year with a vaccine? How many will be willing to take the vaccine? Post pandemic life may be something we have never thought of as real. How would Amtrak operate if each state established check points to insure who enter has been vaccinated. Unfortunately, I feel our postpandemic lives will have more government control than we have ever dreamed about.


It's already being done. When I got my flu shot at Sam's Club, my doctor had it in his records where and when I got it and the fact I got the one for seniors. I had not told him I was getting it as it was a last minute decision while we were buying out the TP section (only kidding) of Sam's and saw the sign about flu shots.


----------



## MARC Rider (Nov 27, 2020)

Ziv said:


> Way back in the day we needed to carry "The Yellow Bible" to get visas to certain countries. It was a fold out pamphlet that you had stamped with your innoculations. It was going out of use when I started traveling internationally in the early 1990's.
> I imagine we will go back to something similar.


Yeah, that's what I got when I got my smallpox vaccination in 1971. It fit right into the passport book.


----------



## MARC Rider (Nov 27, 2020)

jis said:


> It will take quite a while to incorporate that information in a Passport though. There will have to be an interim solution. They will also have to figure out a way of easily updating information in a trustworthy way in the Passport chip every so often, since the vaccination info will presumably need to be updated every year or more or less frequently depending on how long the immunity lasts. So while it is a good sentiment, realizing it will take a while. As a starter the Data element to hold the information has to be standardized and added to the Passport data standard.


Why does everything have to be computerized? They could just go back to issuing the "yellow bible" vaccination certificate that can fit into a passport. And worries that these can be forged are countered by worries that the computerized stuff can be hacked, and often from a very remote distance. As I was taught in introductory computer class -- "garbage in, garbage out."


----------



## jis (Nov 27, 2020)

MARC Rider said:


> Why does everything have to be computerized? They could just go back to issuing the "yellow bible" vaccination certificate that can fit into a passport. And worries that these can be forged are countered by worries that the computerized stuff can be hacked, and often from a very remote distance. As I was taught in introductory computer class -- "garbage in, garbage out."


I did not say that anything needs to be computerized. I was responding to someone else that said so. Merely stating that Passport was not a practical vehicle for doing spo. I agree that a simple vaccication certificate would be fine, though I am not sure what that says other than a date on which one got the last jab. Since rel;atively little is known at present about how long the immunity lasts it is a bit of a crapshoot until we know more. So in some sense even having a vaccination cert initially at least is a bit of GIGO anyway, no matter which form it comes in. A more reliable thing would be a a fast serum test perhaps. Anyway, we have hashed over this in some detail further up thread.


----------



## Dakota 400 (Nov 28, 2020)

I wonder how many of us still have the original "Yellow Bible". I have mine and always carry it with me when I am traveling internationally.


----------



## Ziv (Nov 29, 2020)

I saw mine when I moved last year and it made me laugh. 
"Yellow bible, check. Visas arranged before travel, check. Travelers checks, check. Maps and guidebooks for destination, check."
Travel used to be a bit more structured. Now, hit Kayak for a ticket, carry your ATM card and your smart phone and you are good to go.
But Amtrak going back to the Yellow Bible or something even smaller and easier to tote may be a good interim measure for Amtrak to take. If they can't arrange for a super fast Covid test as you arrive at the train station, having the ability to prove that you have either already had the disease or the injection would be second best. And given the fact that some trips are over 48 hours, a Yellow Bible might actually be better than a fast Covid test at the beginning of the trip.



Dakota 400 said:


> I wonder how many of us still have the original "Yellow Bible". I have mine and always carry it with me when I am traveling internationally.


----------



## jis (Nov 29, 2020)

Dakota 400 said:


> I wonder how many of us still have the original "Yellow Bible". I have mine and always carry it with me when I am traveling internationally.


I have never had one since I did not need one. I guess I will have one for COVID now.


----------



## Barb Stout (Nov 29, 2020)

Yellow Bible: My first entry into the Yellow Bible was somewhere in the 2000s when I first traveled to exotic locales (South America). And yes, mine is still tucked inside my passport. When did "they" completely stop looking at those? It couldn't have been the '90s because I didn't even have one then. Maybe the travel health service I used was out-of-date or old fashioned.


----------



## Dakota 400 (Nov 30, 2020)

Barb Stout said:


> When did "they" completely stop looking at those?



Whenever I cruised to a region that required certain immunizations, the person checking me in for my cruise would look at all of my documents that were required before allowing me to embark the ship. If one did not have the proper documents, one did not sail.


----------



## jis (Nov 30, 2020)

Barb Stout said:


> When did "they" completely stop looking at those?


It depends on where you are traveling to and where from. I have traveled all of SE and S and NE Asia, Russia, China, quite a bit of the Middle East, most of Europe and North America and never even had a vaccine certificate of any sort after 1965. 1965 US required BCG certificate for travelers from India who were planning to stay in the US for more than a week.

But '70s through now, I have never needed a vaccination certificate, and no one has ever asked for one at any border crossing either. There have been recommendations for getting this that or the other vaccination before traveling to India, but when the recommender hears that I grew up in India till 1977, they basically say, don't bother.

Incidentally no one in the US will accept any blood donation from me unless in very dire straits, because I visit a Malaria endemic area every year.

The only cruise that I have ever taken in my life is from Helsinki to St. Petersburg, and they did not require anything for it. It was even a Russian Visa-free cruise since we overnighted on the Ship, leaving it only during daytime clearing immigration for the day each day.


----------



## me_little_me (Dec 27, 2020)

me_little_me said:


> I would think that a QR code or some such stamped on a passport page or similar document provided by the to Amtrak that contains en encrypted version of the passport number (or drivers licence information) ) intermixed with the date and location of the vaccination could be made to work for Amtrak and airlines.


Seems like my thought about vaccine and QR code as a "passport" or on one was not that far fetched:

CNN Article


----------



## DonNewcomb (Jan 2, 2021)

jis said:


> Not allowing anyone without either a vaccination letter or a serum test result showing they are likely to have immunity would be easiest to administer. Even though that is not necessarily a 100% thing, it should be good enough.


All the healthcare workers I know who have received their first vaccination have been presented with a CDC card that shows when, where, which vaccine and by whom it was administered. I'm suggesting everyone hold onto such cards as they may be required for future travel (e.g. Amtrak, plane, ship).

I still have my old WHO "Yellow Card" which I intend to take with me when I get vaccinated.

As a participant in Pfizer's clinical trial, who received the placebo, I'm being offered the real thing at my next checkup in Feb.


----------



## jis (Jan 2, 2021)

I suspect that at least through 2021 proof of vaccination will be required for international flights to many countries.









If you want to travel next year, you may need a vaccine passport | CNN Business


Now that coronavirus vaccines are starting to roll out in the US and abroad, many people may be dreaming of the day when they can travel, shop and go to the movies again. But in order to do those activities, you may eventually need something in addition to the vaccine: a vaccine passport...




www.cnn.com







https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2020/12/10/expect-mandatory-vaccinations-for-asia-travel-says-air-asia-ceo/



What will or will not be required in the US for domestic air travel is anyone's guess. At present for all practical purposes nothing is required. People seem to routinely get on flights with active COVID symptoms, and some even proceed to die on the flight. For some reason United seems to specialize in the latter....


----------



## DonNewcomb (Jan 2, 2021)

Manny T said:


> If the vaccine is just 95% effective, and its effectiveness degrades over time, and it varies in different populations, and you need to be revaccinated periodically, not sure what a passport verification of vaccination will ultimately prove, other than a false sense of reassurance.


Understanding that all analogies are flawed, from an imunilogical perspective, vaccinations act like control rods in a nuclear reactor. Without control rods, the chain reaction runs out of control and you get a meltdown or pandemic in our case. As more control rods are inserted, the slower the chain reaction. As more people are vaccinated the less the disease spreads. In each case, the goal is to get the reaction or spread down to the point that either the reactor can dissipate the heat or the hospitals can cope with the new cases. Most vaccines are not 100% effective. That's not the goal. The goal is to get R as far below 1 as possible. For this to happen, as many people as possible must be vaccinated with whatever vaccine is availabe, be it 98% effective or 58% effective and everyone must continue other prevention measures.

For this reason I see proof of vaccination, masks, hand sanitizer, etc. being required for future Amtrak travel, just as yellow fever vaccination is required to travel to some countries.

P.S. and don't throw out nonsense statements like "It has a 98% survival rate." In the US Army being hit by a IED has a high "survival rate" too. Just how much do you want to spend the rest of your life missing major body parts? Sometimes "surviving" COVID is like surviving a run-in with a landmine.


----------



## Asher (Jan 2, 2021)

If not already, it won't be long before we see some results from the vaccine in real time. I'm hoping those numbers stay in the 90+% bracket. I'm just counting the months till they get to us 80+ folk.


----------



## gwolfdog (Jan 2, 2021)

DonNewcomb said:


> Understanding that all analogies are flawed, from an imunilogical perspective, vaccinations act like control rods in a nuclear reactor. Without control rods, the chain reaction runs out of control and you get a meltdown or pandemic in our case. As more control rods are inserted, the slower the chain reaction. As more people are vaccinated the less the disease spreads. In each case, the goal is to get the reaction or spread down to the point that either the reactor can dissipate the heat or the hospitals can cope with the new cases. Most vaccines are not 100% effective. That's not the goal. The goal is to get R as far below 1 as possible. For this to happen, as many people as possible must be vaccinated with whatever vaccine is availabe, be it 98% effective or 58% effective and everyone must continue other prevention measures.
> 
> For this reason I see proof of vaccination, masks, hand sanitizer, etc. being required for future Amtrak travel, just as yellow fever vaccination is required to travel to some countries.
> 
> P.S. and don't throw out nonsense statements like "It has a 98% survival rate." In the US Army being hit by a IED has a high "survival rate" too. Just how much do you want to spend the rest of your life missing major body parts? Sometimes "surviving" COVID is like surviving a run-in with a landmine.


I hit a Trip Wire on an IED in 69 in Vietnam. Lost an eye and nearly my legs. The pictures of over crowded Hospital Wards, suffering, and the life saving machines, bring back a lot of memories. The Anger I have towards the Fools who think they are Immune and think that suffering alone in a Hospital Bed is nothing is Staggering. Being deemed "Expendable" again, by a incompetent, self serving, Government is beyond Insane. "Surviving" can be a lifetime Battle.


----------



## west point (Jan 2, 2021)

Georgia has screwed up vaccinations horribly. Understand on the state of West Virginia is the only state that has done vaccinations even half way correctly.


----------



## jis (Jan 2, 2021)

west point said:


> Georgia has screwed up vaccinations horribly. Understand on the state of West Virginia is the only state that has done vaccinations even half way correctly.


West Virginia also got one of the largest per capita allocations of vaccine among all the states. Maine did very well too. As did South Dakota.


----------



## DonNewcomb (Jan 2, 2021)

jis said:


> West Virginia also got one of the largest per capita allocations of vaccine among all the states. Maine did very well too. As did South Dakota.


I've read that Louisiana is already permitting anyone over 70 to receive the vaccine. Not sure if that's a reality or just smoke and mirrors. Louisiana does have a history of smoke and mirrors.


----------



## jis (Jan 2, 2021)

DonNewcomb said:


> I've read that Louisiana is already permitting anyone over 70 to receive the vaccine. Not sure if that's a reality or just smoke and mirrors. Louisiana does have a history of smoke and mirrors.


Florida is allowing 65+. Oddly the registration form does not even ask for age! It's the usual screwed up Flori-DUH setup. Our entire county has exactly one location for vaccination! Orange County next door is set up much much better.


----------



## AmtrakBlue (Jan 2, 2021)

Delaware initially was going to do 75+ for the 1b phase but after looking at the demographics of the deaths & serious illnesses lowered it to 65+ in order to provide equality to all races.


----------



## pennyk (Jan 2, 2021)

jis said:


> Florida is allowing 65+. Oddly the registration form does not even ask for age! It's the usual screwed up Flori-DUH setup. Our entire county has exactly one location for vaccination! Orange County next door is set up much much better.


Orange County (next door) only has one location also - the convention center (which some people have reported has misleading signs causing senior citizens to get lost).


----------



## Bob Dylan (Jan 2, 2021)

The Texas Governor announced that lots of Medical Operations were " hoarding" the Vaccine on hand, and ordered that those in Catagory 1B ( over 65 and Essential Workers not in 1A)start receiving the Shots.

I cannot find anyplace in Austin that's doing this except one Public Health Clinic that has a Waiting List of over 200 and ran out of Vaccine Monday.


----------



## jis (Jan 2, 2021)

The more I learn about it the more convinced I get that it is a massive CF everywhere across the country. Even if doses are delivered to a state, the state DOH bureaucracy is paralyzed by internecine warfare within the various layers of the delivery chain to the final jab in the arm and things are merely trickling through at present.


----------



## joelkfla (Jan 2, 2021)

pennyk said:


> Orange County (next door) only has one location also - the convention center (which some people have reported has misleading signs causing senior citizens to get lost).


I got the vaccine the 1st day at the Convention Center. I think the problem was that they vastly overestimated how quickly they could move people thru, so instead of turning in to the loading dock as expected, we were directed around the outside of the complex into a long line of cars snaking back and forth thru the pickup areas. It was a bit confusing, but considering it was the 1st attempt at something of this scale, I think they did good job of it.

It took about 2 1/2 hours to get to the vaccination station, but I'm not complaining. Seeing the news reports of seniors standing in line or camping overnight in other FL counties, I was quite happy to be waiting in the comfort of my car.

I probably spent at least an hour the night before entering my info over and over on the web site until I finally broke thru the error at the last step caused by overloading, and got an appointment. But I've been a Disney passholder for years, so I'm used to that.


----------



## pennyk (Jan 2, 2021)

joelkfla said:


> I got the vaccine the 1st day at the Convention Center. I think the problem was that they vastly overestimated how quickly they could move people thru, so instead of turning in to the loading dock as expected, we were directed around the outside of the complex into a long line of cars snaking back and forth thru the pickup areas. It was a bit confusing, but considering it was the 1st attempt at something of this scale, I think they did good job of it.
> 
> It took about 2 1/2 hours to get to the vaccination station, but I'm not complaining. Seeing the news reports of seniors standing in line or camping overnight in other FL counties, I was quite happy to be waiting in the comfort of my car.
> 
> I probably spent at least an hour the night before entering my info over and over on the web site until I finally broke thru the error at the last step caused by overloading, and got an appointment. But I've been a Disney passholder for years, so I'm used to that.


I am glad you got your vaccination. I have "driving" anxiety - especially around the convention center and tourist areas. I live downtown and generally drive only a few miles a week. I am pretty healthy and feel that others probably should get the vaccine before I do, so I plan to wait until they are offered at locations closer to downtown.


----------



## Jean (Jan 2, 2021)

I read here that some areas in the US do not have an adequate supply of syringes. Can this be true?
We will not start vaccinations here in Australia until March, more of a watch and wait thing. Also there is minimal COVID here, even with a recent outbreak. Outbreaks here are tiny compared with most of the world and come from the virus “escaping” from quarantine hotels where people who have recently returned from overseas are confined.
I could be wrong, but I have confidence vaccinations will go well here, when they do start.


----------



## Palmetto (Jan 3, 2021)

I'm dying to hear General "whatever his name is" get back on the TV and explain the massive screw-up. Last week he was blaming the weather.


----------



## jiml (Jan 3, 2021)

The problem with requiring vaccination for travel is finding the "sweet spot" for implementation date. If it's too early you will have even emptier trains and planes until the vaccination rate catches up, and those not yet allowed to receive the vaccine (as opposed to those who refuse it) could have a case for discrimination. 

Of the major modes of transportation, Amtrak would have the easiest time imposing such a requirement - show ticket, show card, get on-board. However the airlines could be a minefield. Unless they are all forced by government to do so at the same time a mixed set of rules would exist. Then, who verifies vaccination when flying, the individual airline or an agency like the TSA? If the airline, then at what point - ticket purchase, check-in or boarding? How are connections handled? Not going to be easy.


----------



## jis (Jan 3, 2021)

For international flights just like visa requirements are different for different countries, health certificate requirements will be different for different countries, and just like for travel permits are checked before boarding, health permits will also be checked by airlines before boarding. They do it because they are on the hook at the arrival end for anyone that arrives without proper documentation, to haul them back to where they came from free of charge.

As for what will happen within the US, it is almost guaranteed that it will be a swcrewup of the first order.


----------



## Barb Stout (Jan 3, 2021)

jis said:


> West Virginia also got one of the largest per capita allocations of vaccine among all the states. Maine did very well too. As did South Dakota.


It was my understanding that the initial allotment was determined by population, not at-risk population or whether some place is a hot spot or not, just total population. How the population was determined is another story.


----------



## gwolfdog (Jan 3, 2021)

jis said:


> Florida is allowing 65+. Oddly the registration form does not even ask for age! It's the usual screwed up Flori-DUH setup. Our entire county has exactly one location for vaccination! Orange County next door is set up much much better.


What a National Circus. The Ring Master has avowed to destroy it and the vaccinated Clowns up on the Hill are practicing their routines. The Florida Governor isn't much better, but to his credit. people are getting Shots. Here in NY it looks like a long time before either my wife or I qualify under Cuomos PC Plan. The VA, "says they will call me, when "its my time." Working on Plan to get back there as Snowbirds and Condo buyers, as soon as possible. Told my son to get in the Vaccine Line or my Bro in Law says come to 'The Villages'. It's every Couple for Themselves.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 3, 2021)

Rasputin said:


> If the moderators feel this should be moved to another thread, please do so.
> 
> It appears that we will have a COVID-19 vaccine in a few months although it will probably not be widely available for some time. A significant section of the population has indicated that they have no interest in receiving the vaccine.
> 
> ...



There are many hiccups to be hiccup'ed in our presently devastated world; but always... and through all of it... there is a general human penchant for some kind of normalcy; despite attitudes that are always changing. Human civilization is constantly evolving... through wars, pandemics, droughts, etc. And as we adapt, so will Amtrak... because rail travel has promise; it is environmentally friendly, easy on fuel, and acts as a counter deterrent to highway clogging and congestion.

A friend sent out a humorous pictorial essay on this topic. Enjoy!


----------



## jiml (Jan 3, 2021)

jis said:


> For international flights just like visa requirements are different for different countries, health certificate requirements will be different for different countries, and just like for travel permits are checked before boarding, health permits will also be checked by airlines before boarding. They do it because they are on the hook at the arrival end for anyone that arrives without proper documentation, to haul them back to where they came from free of charge.


It will be a lot easier for some countries to implement than others. Australia is a good example. Qantas has stated their intention to require vaccination for international travel. That's easy for them - they're starting from zero, so a short-term "trickle" of passengers is better than none. If United/American/Delta/Air Canada are left to their own devices to impose a deadline it may never happen, since it will cut into their current business. If a majority of people are not yet vaccinated, that's a majority of their potential customers. Even government intervention won't guarantee anything. The Canadian federal government has imposed a January 7 date for having a mandatory negative test for arriving international passengers. The airlines have refused thus far to participate at the origination point on the grounds they don't have jurisdiction, aren't health experts or law enforcement officials. As a result the testing will be done here on arrival and the airlines may not be forced to transport those not complying back. I suspect that issue will be decided by a court long after it becomes a problem.


----------



## jis (Jan 3, 2021)

Checking a document is something airlines will do. Setting up a test facility is something they won't and rightly so. In the past airlines have happily checked vaccination documents. I don't see what is different this time around. Simply banning airlines that refuse tends to fix these problems pretty quickly as US has demonstrated many times in the past. They do so even for airline safety violations. The fact that they don;t do it for certain things clearly suggests that they do not consider it to be important enough.


----------



## jis (Jan 3, 2021)

gwolfdog said:


> What a National Circus. The Ring Master has avowed to destroy it and the vaccinated Clowns up on the Hill are practicing their routines. The Florida Governor isn't much better, but to his credit. people are getting Shots. Here in NY it looks like a long time before either my wife or I qualify under Cuomos PC Plan. The VA, "says they will call me, when "its my time." Working on Plan to get back there as Snowbirds and Condo buyers, as soon as possible. Told my son to get in the Vaccine Line or my Bro in Law says come to 'The Villages'. It's every Couple for Themselves.


For the time being in Florida, I suspect it is much safer to not try to get vaccinated immediately than to go through the motions of trying to do so. Eventually the turn will come, as my doctor tells me, when I will get a call from his office. So I will just hunker down and hold tight until then. Afterall, there really is no pressing hurry as far as I am concerned.


----------



## jis (Jan 3, 2021)

Barb Stout said:


> It was my understanding that the initial allotment was determined by population, not at-risk population or whether some place is a hot spot or not, just total population. How the population was determined is another story.


That is true except for a few politically determined exceptions.


----------



## MARC Rider (Jan 3, 2021)

anumberone said:


> If not already, it won't be long before we see some results from the vaccine in real time. I'm hoping those numbers stay in the 90+% bracket. I'm just counting the months till they get to us 80+ folk.


I think that the surge of case we're going to be getting from the people who disregarding advice about social distancing during the holidays may drown out the results from the vaccine for a while. The case tracker on the Washington Post was showing cases dropping off, but over the last week, they've been rising again.


----------



## neroden (Jan 3, 2021)

jis said:


> West Virginia also got one of the largest per capita allocations of vaccine among all the states. Maine did very well too. As did South Dakota.


New York was underallocated vaccines and this probably won't change until Jan. 20th. As a result New York is still working on getting all the health care workers vaccinated (we also have more health care workers per capita than many states). I'm just waiting until they announce Phase 2, which is expected to be sometime in mid-January.

I do think New York knows what it's doing. They're staying on top of things in detail: COVID-19 Vaccine Information for Providers


----------



## Dakota 400 (Jan 3, 2021)

Palmetto said:


> I'm dying to hear General "whatever his name is" get back on the TV and explain the massive screw-up. Last week he was blaming the weather.



If I was General "whatever his name is", as well as the Surgeon General, they might want to contemplate retirement or considering what other military job they might try to obtain come January 20, 2021.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 3, 2021)

Dakota 400 said:


> If I was General "whatever his name is", as well as the Surgeon General, they might want to contemplate retirement or considering what other military job they might try to obtain come January 20, 2021.



What we really need is strong leadership that focuses on the well being of all us US citizens. C'mon! Where's the vaccine and what is the government doing to get it to us???


----------



## OlympianHiawatha (Jan 3, 2021)

I sure want to know what the Hell these last several comments have to do with Amtrak!


----------



## Bob Dylan (Jan 3, 2021)

Jean said:


> I read here that some areas in the US do not have an adequate supply of syringes. Can this be true?
> We will not start vaccinations here in Australia until March, more of a watch and wait thing. Also there is minimal COVID here, even with a recent outbreak. Outbreaks here are tiny compared with most of the world and come from the virus “escaping” from quarantine hotels where people who have recently returned from overseas are confined.
> I could be wrong, but I have confidence vaccinations will go well here, when they do start.


Countries with National Health tend to be more organized and perform better than the "everyone for themselves " System we have in the US.


----------



## Qapla (Jan 4, 2021)

OlympianHiawatha said:


> I sure want to know what the Hell these last several comments have to do with Amtrak!



It's all in the title of the thread ... "*Post Vaccine* Amtrak Travel"

If the vaccine is not delivered and administered - there can be no "post" vaccine


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 4, 2021)

Qapla said:


> It's all in the title of the thread ... "*Post Vaccine* Amtrak Travel"
> 
> If the vaccine is not delivered and administered - there can be no "post" vaccine



Hopefully things will start to move and improve post January 20, 2021.


----------



## Dakota 400 (Jan 4, 2021)

OlympianHiawatha said:


> I sure want to know what the Hell these last several comments have to do with Amtrak!



Until there is competence being demonstrated in the response to the pandemic, we all suffer. That includes businesses of all types, including Amtrak. And, our ability and willingness to utilize Amtrak.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 4, 2021)

OlympianHiawatha said:


> I sure want to know what the Hell these last several comments have to do with Amtrak!



The pandemic has everything to do with Amtrak... and all of us taking precautions, prioritizing the vaccine, and stop the squabbling in Washington... will hasten the time when life gets back to normal. That's what the pandemic has to do with Amtrak... and everything else.


----------



## jis (Jan 7, 2021)

jis said:


> For the time being in Florida, I suspect it is much safer to not try to get vaccinated immediately than to go through the motions of trying to do so. Eventually the turn will come, as my doctor tells me, when I will get a call from his office. So I will just hunker down and hold tight until then. Afterall, there really is no pressing hurry as far as I am concerned.


OK, now having experienced actually getting my first shot (Moderna) in Florida I need to revise my assessment, for the better actually in some cases....

In Florida each County has their own way of doing things. Some (e.g. Lake) are really exceptionally bad, requiring people to show up and line up the previous night and such. Others like Brevard, where I am turned out to be remarkably good.

They are using Eventbrite to schedule appointments, and appointments are reserved only for the number of dozes that they have available. Facebook came in handy this time as Brevard Emergency Management posted the opening of the Eventbrite system on Facebook, Twitter and on their own SMS and email feeds. I was happily executing on my plan to sit around and watch until an opportunity comes up, when I chanced upon the notification on Facebook and immediately jumped on the site using my preexisting Eventbrite account, At that time it was wide open, and I chose a time slot (15 min time slots) on the 6th.

Leaving aside the misadventure on the side to get my Doctor's office to interact with DOH to provide them with some documentation they needed, which came through eventually, well ahead of time, I arrived about half an hour early. It was basically a drive through setup. They gave me a consent form to fill and then join one of two line. The lines advanced pretty quickly as they completed the documentation and stuck the entire package under my windshield.

When I advanced to the vaccination station, they took the package asked me a question about the doctor's note and then I got my jab. The nurse was very good. I did not really feel anything at all. There was a two sentence verbal instruction, and then because of a special condition the doctor had noted I was required to wait in a waiting lot for 30 mins (instead of the normal 15), before I was released to move to the next station, where the documentation package was taken and I was given a Vaccination Record card (a CDC document) with annotation about the vaccination I got that day plus an appointment 28 days out for the second shot. And that was that. I was on my way.

On the whole, things moved very smoothly and they were doing about 20-30 per hour it seemed with the number of cars that were parked for the post vaccination waiting period. Oh and the waiters were actively monitored by several nurses who were walking the lot. The entire process, from when I entered the DOH facility to when I left, including the half hour monitoring wait after vaccination, took almost exactly one hour.

So in Florida, if you are in a county with a competent DOH it is fine and safe to get vaccinated. In Brevard get yourself on the Emergency Management folk's SMS notification service to know when Eventbrite opens up again, or get in touch with Omni Health or Health First, who are getting an allocation too, for their regular patients. They might be able to spare a shot for those that are not, but quite unlikely.

In late Feb/early March Walgreens and Publix will start getting allocations too.

Now I have to go and plan a trip to New York in late February by when I should have as good an immunity as I will ever get from the Moderna shots.

One thing is, there is some uncertainty about what the residual level of immunity will be after 6-7 months. We learn as we go. The general consensus at present appears to be leaning towards annual booster shots, but yet to be confirmed based on real world experience from those that got the vaccine during the phase 3 and earlier trials.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 7, 2021)

20th Century Rider said:


> Hopefully things will start to move and improve post January 20, 2021.



One of the problems resonating with chaotic national leadership is no actual credible national plan for distribution of the vaccine. The selfish focus of the leader has prioritized disputing the election outcome... with the national infection rate soaring to a quarter million a day... and the death rate exceeding 3000 per day. Out here on the Oregon Coast nobody seems to know when the vaccine will become available.

There is certainly a lot of hope that the new administration will pull things together. But with no information regarding vaccine availability, I personally will be extremely cautious and careful... as the pandemic continues to spread.


----------



## jis (Jan 7, 2021)

20th Century Rider said:


> One of the problems resonating with chaotic national leadership is no actual credible national plan for distribution of the vaccine. The selfish focus of the leader has prioritized disputing the election outcome... with the national infection rate soaring to a quarter million a day... and the death rate exceeding 3000 per day. Out here on the Oregon Coast nobody seems to know when the vaccine will become available.
> 
> There is certainly a lot of hope that the new administration will pull things together. But with no information regarding vaccine availability, I personally will be extremely cautious and careful... as the pandemic continues to spread.


According to the live document COVID 19 Vaccine Tracker Oregon has to date (1/7/21) received 227,000 dozes of which it has used only 55,247 dozes or a shade over 24%. For now it would appear to be an Oregon state issue that there is no information, than a federal/national issue. If Oregon was close to running out of what it has received it would tend to be a federal/national issue.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 7, 2021)

jis said:


> According to the live document COVID 19 Vaccine Tracker Oregon has to date (1/7/21) received 227,000 dozes of which it has used only 55,247 dozes or a shade over 24%. For now it would appear to be an Oregon state issue that there is no information, than a federal/national issue. If Oregon was close to running out of what it has received it would tend to be a federal/national issue.



Thanks for the info!


----------



## Lonestar648 (Jan 7, 2021)

I am anxiously awaiting the post Covid time so maybe Amtrak and VIA can resume somewhat normal schedules. When that will be is the big question. Just seeing the confusion associated with the 1a rollout, I am concerned the wait may be last well into 2022. With the States establishing their own eligibility criteria, nationwide businesses like CVS and Walgreens web sites are confusing those in states like Texas where 1b included those 65 and older, not just 75 and older. The problem I ran into, being an unfortunate person with highly compromised immunity, is available inventory. There are no wait lists established here like some areas, my daughter in law has over 90,000 ahead of her on a wait list in her county. 

once the threshold of 50% having taken the vaccine correctly is met, will the general public start feeling more secure about getting out? This is key to more travel, which is key to Amtrak restarting Daily Service. Even after the majority have been vaccinated, I expect wearing masks to be still required because new mutations will be or are being found that the current vaccine doesn’t cover, so we will have new waves of Covid spikes, hopefully not like what we are seeing today.

Should post Covid-19 vaccine domestic travel require government permission to travel out of your home state like other countries has implemented? So post Covid-19 travel could require vaccine certification of Both shots and permit by your state to travel, in addition to a photo ID.


----------



## me_little_me (Jan 7, 2021)

AmtrakFlyer said:


> Thinking like this has allowed the virus to surge out of control here, some estimates now are 400,000 dead by the end of the year. It’s not a Biden or Trump issue it’s a life/death/economic issue facing us all as Americans.





me_little_me said:


> Please don't use the "some estimates" numbers. They are often the extremes (in both directions) used by both politicians and media commentators to push their points. The death rate of deaths vs cases is going down as the weakest of us die off, the treatment gets better and the detection by better tests gets more accurate.
> 
> It's like "Joe Smith committed a crime. He faces up to 60 years". Yeah, if he is convicted on all counts, gets the maximum on each one, gets them consecutive instead of concurrent, has no mitigating factors, the worst lawyer, no friends or family to beg the judge, and the prosecutor has no other cases and really hates him. Otherwise, it will be settled for 6 months confinement and two years probation.



I want to publicly apologize to you, AmtrakFlyer. It seemed so silly to me back on Nov 15 that there would be any possibility of being anywhere near 400,000 dead by the end of the year. While we did not hit that horrible number, it sure seems more than possible that by January 31, we might. So sad. Per the CDC, 3,865 Covid-19 deaths in one day.


----------



## jis (Jan 7, 2021)

The goal stated by the President was 20 million by the end of 2020. The feds fell far short of it even in their distribution to states. They didn't even hit 5 million. And then the President tried to blame the states saying it is upto them now. Yeah, states did not quite manage to move fast enough either, but then the federal distribution chain failed miserably too and is yet to recover, though Dr. Fauci thinks that is about to happen. Maybe by "about to" he means by the end of the month after the new administration is up and running. The present administration seems to be incredibly ill equipped do anything successfully. Just IMHO of course.









Trump, Dumbass Extraordinaire, Is Already Complicating the Vaccine Rollout


Distributing COVID vaccines will be a massive, complicated endeavor, and as long as Trump is in charge, the logistical puzzle will only be more challenging to solve.




www.vanityfair.com


----------



## Lonestar648 (Jan 7, 2021)

I think the current administration is ready to get on with their lives so doesn’t care what happens, just leave it for the new group.


----------



## Bob Dylan (Jan 7, 2021)

Lonestar648 said:


> I think the current administration is ready to get on with their lives so doesn’t care what happens, just leave it for the new group.


Theyve NEVER Cared about the Great Unwashed, only themselves and their fellow Grifters and Greedheads!


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 7, 2021)

Bob Dylan said:


> Theyve NEVER Cared about the Great Unwashed, only themselves and their fellow Grifters and Greedheads!



It looks like it's catching up with them in the end!


----------



## AmtrakFlyer (Jan 8, 2021)

No need to apologize we’re all in uncharted territory and in this together. He’s to a better 2021 for all of us.



me_little_me said:


> I want to publicly apologize to you, AmtrakFlyer. It seemed so silly to me back on Nov 15 that there would be any possibility of being anywhere near 400,000 dead by the end of the year. While we did not hit that horrible number, it sure seems more than possible that by January 31, we might. So sad. Per the CDC, 3,865 Covid-19 deaths in one day.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 8, 2021)

Like so many others, I am looking forward to putting this nightmare into the rearview mirror! Let us all take precautions to stay safe and healthy, and keep our vision of a pandemic free country with stable government and robust economy.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 8, 2021)

20th Century Rider said:


> Like so many others, I am looking forward to putting this nightmare into the rearview mirror! Let us all take precautions to stay safe and healthy, and keep our vision of a pandemic free country with stable government and robust economy.
> View attachment 20191


And a thriving Amtrak rail system!


----------



## Dakota 400 (Jan 8, 2021)

20th Century Rider said:


> Like so many others, I am looking forward to putting this nightmare into the rearview mirror! Let us all take precautions to stay safe and healthy, and keep our vision of a pandemic free country with stable government and robust economy



And, being able to go shopping, dine in a restaurant, return to an in-person church service, etc. without having to wear a mask, trying to keep safely away from other people, and wondering if I am playing "Russian roulette" with my life by doing whatever I now have to do to meet the requirements of daily life.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 8, 2021)

Dakota 400 said:


> And, being able to go shopping, dine in a restaurant, return to an in-person church service, etc. without having to wear a mask, trying to keep safely away from other people, and wondering if I am playing "Russian roulette" with my life by doing whatever I now have to do to meet the requirements of daily life.



You took the words right out of my mouth!


----------



## Devil's Advocate (Jan 9, 2021)

jiml said:


> The airlines have refused thus far to participate at the origination point on the grounds they don't have jurisdiction, aren't health experts or law enforcement officials. As a result the testing will be done here on arrival and the airlines may not be forced to transport those not complying back. I suspect that issue will be decided by a court long after it becomes a problem.


Airlines are already on the hook for collecting numerous passenger details, including flying the passenger home on the next flight whenever they miss something, so the back end processing and protocols already exist. Representatives often make a big stink about this sort of thing but even large airlines risk insolvency if they refuse to comply. The threat of losing landing rights or being saddled with immigration related fines and penalties is usually enough to push most to cooperate rather than become a martyr over something minor.


----------



## Lonestar648 (Jan 9, 2021)

I can’t wait for this country to get beyond the danger point of this virus. Like many things there is no 100%, so Covid will always be around and unfortunately some will not take the vaccine and eventually will get the virus. This is the story we have been hearing for months, but recently something new has appeared on the horizon, a new mutation strain found in the UK and now in Houston that is more contagious and more lethal than the Covid 19. And it is said that the current vaccines will not protect against this version. So are we destined to be mask wearers, in a society that doesn’t touch or get close to one another.? Post Covid-19 maybe getting vaccinated for Covid-21. If this is the future, for those of us who have compromised immunity, our future is dismal.I ache to get onto one of my loop train trips.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 9, 2021)

Lonestar648 said:


> I can’t wait for this country to get beyond the danger point of this virus. Like many things there is no 100%, so Covid will always be around and unfortunately some will not take the vaccine and eventually will get the virus. This is the story we have been hearing for months, but recently something new has appeared on the horizon, a new mutation strain found in the UK and now in Houston that is more contagious and more lethal than the Covid 19. And it is said that the current vaccines will not protect against this version. So are we destined to be mask wearers, in a society that doesn’t touch or get close to one another.? Post Covid-19 maybe getting vaccinated for Covid-21. If this is the future, for those of us who have compromised immunity, our future is dismal.I ache to get onto one of my loop train trips.



Not entirely true nor quite as bad as you say. But it does spread easier and faster... which is not good...

"The danger of the new Covid variant isn't that it's more severe, but that it's more contagious. If more people get infected, this will increase the burden on already-overwhelmed hospitals—and lead to more deaths." Dr. Tom Freiden - 
President & CEO 
@ResolveTSL
| Sr Fellow 
@CFR_org
| Former Director 
@CDCgov
& Cmish 
@nycHealthy
| Focused on saving lives | COVID-19 pandemic response & recovery


----------



## joelkfla (Jan 9, 2021)

Lonestar648 said:


> And it is said that the current vaccines will not protect against this version.


Said by whom? Everything I've heard is that the experts expect the existing vaccines wll provide protection (subject to further research), but perhaps not the 95% efficacy.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 9, 2021)

joelkfla said:


> Said by whom? Everything I've heard is that the experts expect the existing vaccines wll provide protection (subject to further research), but perhaps not the 95% efficacy.


Exactly.


----------



## jis (Jan 9, 2021)

Lonestar648 said:


> recently something new has appeared on the horizon, a new mutation strain found in the UK and now in Houston that is more contagious and more lethal than the Covid 19. And it is said that the current vaccines will not protect against this version. So are we destined to be mask wearers, in a society that doesn’t touch or get close to one another.?


Can you provide a credible reference for all the claims you make about the new mutations? Your claims appear to be completely at odds with everything I have seen in reputable journals.

From what I have seen, the new mutations are more contagious but *not* more lethal, and it has been categorically stated that the two mRNA vaccines in use in the US at present will most likely protect, since the vaccine depends on multiple features of the spike proteins and not all (or even many) of them are compromised.


----------



## Devil's Advocate (Jan 9, 2021)

He used to be one of the more optimistic members but it's easy to fall into the trap of catastrophic thinking while living through extended adversity. At some point even positive feedback begins to look more like false hope. It's still a good idea to clear the air and correct the record though. If any of that is actually true it should be corroborated by numerous sources. I've heard a few troubling developments recently but only in the form of unproven hypotheticals.


----------



## jis (Jan 9, 2021)

Good point Chris....

Instead of flooding folks with random collection of technical papers, I spent some time to come up with one concise credible reference. And this is what I found so far:









The U.K. Coronavirus Mutation Is Worrying but Not Terrifying


There is evidence the new variant could be more transmissible, yet vaccines work very well against it




www.scientificamerican.com





It is Scientific American. Hard to get more credible than that.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 9, 2021)

jis said:


> Good point Chris....
> 
> Instead of flooding folks with random collection of technical papers, I spent some time to come up with one concise credible reference. And this is what I found so far:
> 
> ...



With all this stuff... don't listen to hearsay... listen to the experts!


----------



## west point (Jan 9, 2021)

my take being in a compromised category. I will get the two shots three weeks apart and then another 3 weeks. Then I will continue to practice masking and distancing. But I will leave my solitary confinement and try to visit all the family I have avoided since the end of January 2020. Then shortly after on to Amtrak.
93% probability protection is enough for me. If I do not have it then covid-19B117 will get me anyway.


----------



## Lonestar648 (Jan 10, 2021)

20th Century Rider said:


> With all this stuff... don't listen to hearsay... listen to the experts!


I totally agree. I was watching the evening new, think CBS, they had an expert stating this. Now in hind sight, I should checked the person out, but I was just listening until I heard him mention the new strain. My wife heard a doctor discuss the Houston case briefly on local news saying about the same thing. I think we may have fallen in to the easy trap of the self proclaimed “experts”. Every TV network and TV station have their own paid experts. I did ask my personal doctor who said there isn’t enough known yet, except to always have my guard up and not relax my protection. He did say though much different from the flu, he would not be surprised to hear about a booster for the early vaccines in a couple years or so as researchers learn more about the vaccines that have been already devoloped.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Jan 10, 2021)

And when the pandemic is over... hope I never have to look at a 'flex meal' again!


----------



## jis (Jan 10, 2021)

west point said:


> my take being in a compromised category. I will get the two shots three weeks apart and then another 3 weeks.


How many weeks apart you get the two shots will depend on which specific vaccine you get. The dosage and space between the two shots is not the same for all of them.


----------



## gwolfdog (Jan 10, 2021)

Amazing Articles about ethics of who receives the Vaccine and Institutions that have abused guidelines can be found at [email protected], FREE


----------



## jis (Jan 10, 2021)

Here is a NY Times article on the issues involved in deciding which group should get prioritized. May require a subscription to access the full article.









The Elderly vs. Essential Workers: Who Should Get the Coronavirus Vaccine First? (Published 2020)


The C.D.C. will soon decide which group to recommend next, and the debate over the trade-offs is growing heated. Ultimately, states will determine whom to include.




www.nytimes.com





Here is another very informative article:









Who Will Get the Coronavirus Vaccine First? (Published 2020)


We answer that and other important questions about the distribution, safety and availability of the shots.




www.nytimes.com





Incidentally, UK facing an unprecedented outbreak has decided to postpone the second shot of the Pfizer vaccine out as far as 12 weeks instead of the recommended 4 weeks. It is still a hotly debated decision.

Here is an article on the status of this ongoing debate...









As Rollout Falters, Scientists Debate New Vaccination Tactics (Published 2021)


Should second doses be delayed? Should most adults receive half-doses? Scientists are pondering ways to get more shots into more arms.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## gwolfdog (Jan 10, 2021)

If you can travel to Russian, Sputnik 5 Vaccine is readily available and much safer according to Putin.  .


----------



## jis (Jan 10, 2021)

gwolfdog said:


> If you can travel to Russian, Sputnik 5 Vaccine is readily available and much safer according to Putin.  .


You don't have to travel to Russia. Mexico has a significant order of the Gamaleya Vaccine, which is the brand name for what was developed as the Sputnik V vaccine. Surprisingly, Mexico has ordered very little vaccine from any US Company - just a very small order from Pfizer. Its other orders are from AstraZeneca, and two Chinese companies. Their largest order is with AstraZeneca.

The biggest customer of Gamaleya is India, but then again India is also the biggest customer of AstraZeneca and Novavax, and of course the locally developed Bharat Biotech. It has also ordered from Pfizer and Moderna, but small orders, that are not mentioned by Bloomberg in their vaccine tracker. India is basically covering Bangladesh and Myanmar to a large extent in addition to India of course. The AstraZeneca vaccine known as Covishield in India is being manufactured by Serum Institute in Pune and they allegedly have a stock of 50 million ready to go, and on track to produce 100 million per month.


----------



## jis (Feb 28, 2021)

So I started exploring possibilities of a random trip in April around my birthday. As I was doing this Amtrak decided to bestow Select status upon me out of the blue. Meanwhile United had already sent me my lifetime Platinum status, which caused me to get an extreme urge to get off the ground up into the sky soon.

My primary Amtrak ride motivation is to go and visit the Moynihan Train Hall. But that is in New York with all sorts of travel restrictions still in place, so I think I will hold off on that.

So for Amtrak ride, the best bet appears to be my usual jaunt to North Carolina and back involving two states with no restrictions.

Then again, it would appear that I could fly to Denver and back and satisfy my urges to fly up in the clouds. Of course California, Chicago and New York are out for now and Houston, has no easy way to get to ride on rails. Decisions.... decisions....


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Feb 28, 2021)

jis said:


> So I started exploring possibilities of a random trip in April around my birthday. As I was doing this Amtrak decided to bestow Select status upon me out of the blue. Meanwhile United had already sent me my lifetime Platinum status, which caused me to get an extreme urge to get off the ground up into the sky soon.
> 
> My primary Amtrak ride motivation is to go and visit the Moynihan Train Hall. But that is in New York with all sorts of travel restrictions still in place, so I think I will hold off on that.
> 
> ...


We are all getting tired of COVID and it's restrictions. And I think many of us want to see Amtrak come out of this with a 'reborn' service standard. Prior to covid things were beginning to sag as costs were cut... which encouraged revenue to go down. 

Now we 'hopefully' have a pro Amtrak administration... along with an environmental incentive to energize the entire rail system. America leads the world in many things... but lags far behind when it comes to railroad technology.

Needless to say there is a pent up energy to bounce out of our cocoons and ride the rails... sipping wine, sharing a good time in the diner with strangers who become friends... and munching on that angus steak burger... and the chips.

If Amtrak management and the government, know of the potential ridership from folks who want to ride the train... we can rebuild that customer base and all the loyalty that goes with it.

Finally... that Amtrak bestowed upon you Select Status... must say something coming from somewhere that they need and value customer patronage.


----------



## jis (Feb 28, 2021)

20th Century Rider said:


> Finally... that Amtrak bestowed upon you Select Status... must say something coming from somewhere that they need and value customer patronage.


I think a simple explanation for that is that in 2019 I was Select+. For 2020 I did not collect enough eligible AGR points to make anything so they applied the "soft landing" rule and gave me Select. Come 2021 I think they have just given everyone whatever status they had in 2020 due to the pandemic (unless they managed to better that in 2020 travels). Hence my Select status. Unless I collect enough eligible AGR points this year, I will most likely have no status next year.

On the airline side I have stability with lifetime Platinum status at United. Too bad Amtrak did not do any lifetime thing. I'd have easily gotten some status by now.


----------



## AmtrakBlue (Feb 28, 2021)

jis said:


> I think a simple explanation for that is that in 1919 I was Select+. For 1920 I did not collect enough eligible AGR points to make anything so they applied the "soft landing" rule and gave me Select. Come 2021 I think they have just given everyone whatever status they had in 2020 due to the pandemic (unless they managed to better that in 2020 travels). Hence my Select status. Unless I collect enough eligible AGR points this year, I will most likely have no status next year.
> 
> On the airline side I have stability with lifetime Platinum status at United. Too bad Amtrak did not do any lifetime thing. I'd have easily gotten some status by now.


Gee, Jis, I didn’t think you were THAT old.


----------



## AmtrakBlue (Feb 28, 2021)

jis said:


> I think a simple explanation for that is that in 1919 I was Select+. For 1920 I did not collect enough eligible AGR points to make anything so they applied the "soft landing" rule and gave me Select. Come 2021 I think they have just given everyone whatever status they had in 2020 due to the pandemic (unless they managed to better that in 2020 travels). Hence my Select status. Unless I collect enough eligible AGR points this year, I will most likely have no status next year.
> 
> On the airline side I have stability with lifetime Platinum status at United. Too bad Amtrak did not do any lifetime thing. I'd have easily gotten some status by now.


I was close to enough TQPs for Select in 2020 and was pleasantly surprised they gave it to me. I’m sure it was because they knew people were not traveling much in 2020.


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Feb 28, 2021)

AmtrakBlue said:


> Gee, Jis, I didn’t think you were THAT old.


Golly gee wizzerooo! To have almost 27,000 posts like Jis it will take me at least 20 years... hmmm... wonder what Amtrak will look like then???  



BTW... it seems the further we go into the future, the bigger the noses are on those trains... like some of us aging Jimmy Durante types!  [Just speaking for myself... but my nose is not that big... yet!]


----------



## jis (Feb 28, 2021)

AmtrakBlue said:


> I was close to enough TQPs for Select in 2020 and was pleasantly surprised they gave it to me. I’m sure it was because they knew people were not traveling much in 2020.


I collected something like 2000 TQP in 2019 and 0 in 2020. But I was Select+ in 2019, due to some 11000 TQP in 2018.


----------



## AmtrakBlue (Feb 28, 2021)

20th Century Rider said:


> Golly gee wizzerooo! To have almost 27,000 posts like Jis it will take me at least 20 years... hmmm... wonder what Amtrak will look like then???
> View attachment 20878
> 
> 
> BTW... it seems the further we go into the future, the bigger the noses are on those trains... like some of us aging Jimmy Durante types!  [Just speaking for myself... but my nose is not that big... yet!]











Your Ears And Nose Get Bigger In Old Age (But Not Because They're Growing)


Your ears and nose are getting longer every year.




www.discovery.com


----------



## Palmetto (Feb 28, 2021)

jis said:


> So I started exploring possibilities of a random trip in April around my birthday. As I was doing this Amtrak decided to bestow Select status upon me out of the blue. Meanwhile United had already sent me my lifetime Platinum status, which caused me to get an extreme urge to get off the ground up into the sky soon.
> 
> My primary Amtrak ride motivation is to go and visit the Moynihan Train Hall. But that is in New York with all sorts of travel restrictions still in place, so I think I will hold off on that.
> 
> ...



Get on it. I've got a trip planned to Honolulu at Christmas.


----------



## v v (Feb 28, 2021)

Palmetto said:


> Get on it. I've got a trip planned to Honolulu at Christmas.



Which one?


----------



## 20th Century Rider (Feb 28, 2021)

AmtrakBlue said:


> Your Ears And Nose Get Bigger In Old Age (But Not Because They're Growing)
> 
> 
> Your ears and nose are getting longer every year.
> ...


Is that a condition brought about by eating too many flex meals???


----------



## zephyr17 (Mar 1, 2021)

RichieRich said:


> While I read that 50% would not get vaccinated at all anyway. At 73, never had a flu shot and don't plan to get injected by anything from the "Government"! Can't wait to see the new Civil War when the Government mandates Biden Injections!


Then stay home until the enough of the rest of us get vaccinated to reach herd immunity and you get a free ride on the backs of everyone who did get vaccinated.


----------



## PaTrainFan (Mar 1, 2021)

zephyr17 said:


> Then stay home until the enough of the rest of us get vaccinated to reach herd immunity and you get a free ride on the backs of everyone who did get vaccinated.


 On the money. Unfortunately.


----------



## MilwaukeeRoadLover (Mar 1, 2021)

PaTrainFan said:


> On the money. Unfortunately.


I bet there were alot of these people during the 1918 pandemic. If only we would learn from our experiences...


----------



## PaTrainFan (Mar 1, 2021)

MilwaukeeRoadLover said:


> I bet there were alot of these people during the 1918 pandemic. If only we would learn from our experiences...



Ha. Well, not many survivors from the 1918 pandemic still with us to learn from. And we also know the average American is a poor student of history. Not to mention flu vaccines weren't developed until 20-30 years after that worldwide disaster. All they had to rely on was herd immunity, and many millions of deaths. Thankfully, we have come a very long way since.


----------



## MARC Rider (Mar 1, 2021)

Once I finally get vaccinated, and the immunity kicks in, my first Amtrak trip will be up to New York to check out the Moynihan Train Hall. I got my Select Plus for 2021 despite not having earned the TQP, so I'm looking forward to checking out the new Metropolitan Lounge.

After that, who knows...Maybe a triangle trip to Boston -> LSL 449 to Albany --> Baltimore. Maybe out to Pittsburgh on the Cap, and then back east on the Pennsylvanian to ride over the Horseshoe Curve in daylight. (I rode over it at night in 1973). And if they ever reopen the northern border and VIA resumes full service, I really do want to ride the Canadian and maybe also the train the Churchill. But probably not in 2021.


----------



## neroden (Mar 2, 2021)

PaTrainFan said:


> Ha. Well, not many survivors from the 1918 pandemic still with us to learn from. And we also know the average American is a poor student of history. Not to mention flu vaccines weren't developed until 20-30 years after that worldwide disaster. All they had to rely on was herd immunity, and many millions of deaths. Thankfully, we have come a very long way since.


And masks. They also relied on masks, and they worked.

New York State put out a great PSA showing people wearing masks in the 1918 Pandemic. Pay attention to the cat: 

If everyone were as responsible about masking up as the people in those photos (most people weren't, both in 1918 and now), this would all be over a lot sooner, with a lot less injury and death. It upsets me because it's not that hard. My fiancee, who has sleep apnea, had to sleep wearing a mask. In the emergency room. It was fine. The callousness of anti-maskers is astounding and depressing.

Once it's safe enough to travel again, I basically plan to go ***everywhere*** in the US: I'm going to visit everyone I know. Right now it isn't safe to eat out and many grocery stores are unsafe due to anti-maskers, making it quite difficult to come up with a safe itinerary. (Takeout and delivery, I guess.) Food is actually the issue: both Amtrak, public transit agencies, and hotels are enforcing mask requirements enough for me to be comfortable in my safety, but I have to eat.


----------



## Dakota 400 (Mar 2, 2021)

MARC Rider said:


> ). And if they ever reopen the northern border and VIA resumes full service, I really do want to ride the Canadian



I do as well. Should have done it 2-3 years ago; kept delaying in making a booking. Now, I have to wonder. Is it too late? Not as young as I once was.


----------



## IndyLions (Mar 2, 2021)

Dakota 400 said:


> I do as well. Should have done it 2-3 years ago; kept delaying in making a booking. Now, I have to wonder. Is it too late? Not as young as I once was.



That and the Ocean. I can’t wait to ride that one – I just hope it comes back.


----------



## Eric in East County (Mar 3, 2021)

Just during the last year since COVID has become an issue, the few times we’ve had to visit a medical facility to pick up prescriptions, there is always a checkpoint at the entrance where someone with a handheld device takes our temperatures. We assume that this is to determine if we have fevers. We also assume that those people who are found to have fevers are denied admittance.

We’ve not read where Amtrak has adopted a similar practice with passengers waiting to board. If this ever does come to pass, could Amtrak personnel prevent someone with a ticket from boarding their train if they have a fever?

Eric & Pat


----------



## jis (Mar 3, 2021)

Eric in East County said:


> Just during the last year since COVID has become an issue, the few times we’ve had to visit a medical facility to pick up prescriptions, there is always a checkpoint at the entrance where someone with a handheld device takes our temperatures. We assume that this is to determine if we have fevers. We also assume that those people who are found to have fevers are denied admittance.
> 
> We’ve not read where Amtrak has adopted a similar practice with passengers waiting to board. If this ever does come to pass, could Amtrak personnel prevent someone with a ticket from boarding their train if they have a fever?
> 
> Eric & Pat


Here is some background information on why temperature checks are not done any more at most places....









Fauci Says Coronavirus Temperature Checks ‘Notoriously Inaccurate’


Businesses big and small have been using infrared thermometers to screen patrons for fever, a symptom of Covid-19.




www.forbes.com


----------



## AmtrakBlue (Mar 3, 2021)

jis said:


> Here is some background information on why temperature checks are not done any more at most places....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


For one doctor appt I had last year - during the hot summer - they checked my temperature when I entered the building. It was slightly elevated so she told me to wait a minute or two, in the A/C, and she'd take it again, and the 2nd time it was normal. They knew patients are waiting in their cars, per instructions, until about 5 mins before their appts, so they probably would register a higher temp when they first came into the building.


----------



## jis (Mar 3, 2021)

They used to check temps at doctor's offices around here, but they discontinued that about three or four months back.


----------



## AmtrakBlue (Mar 3, 2021)

jis said:


> They used to check temps at doctor's offices around here, but they discontinued that about three or four months back.


They're checking temps at the Apple store in my local mall.  He started to ask me the usual questions and held up the paper with the questions (because I didn't understand what he was asking - with my hearing). I looked at it and said - I pass that test and he let me proceed.


----------



## Lonestar648 (Mar 3, 2021)

With the wearing of masks going on the “honor” system in 15 states, and the rollout of vaccines still army in the 1b priority list, I am concerned once I have both my shots and have 94% immunity, that still Amtrak will be just as it is now because the easing up was premature with too many getting the virus. I want to take several train trips, but I want thing to be operating normally.


----------



## jis (Mar 3, 2021)

Lonestar648 said:


> With the wearing of masks going on the “honor” system in 15 states, and the rollout of vaccines still army in the 1b priority list, I am concerned once I have both my shots and have 94% immunity, that still Amtrak will be just as it is now because the easing up was premature with too many getting the virus. I want to take several train trips, but I want thing to be operating normally.


Wait till third quarter at the earliest. If things proceed according to plans everyone that wants to be vaccinated will probably get it by June/July, even though theoretically it could be as early as the end of May.


----------



## Lonestar648 (Mar 3, 2021)

You are probably right. I just miss the enjoyment of riding the train, especially taking one of the grandkids with me. Just getting impatient. 

I wonder if Amtrak realizes or cares about the pent up demand once train travel becomes viable again.


----------



## jis (Mar 5, 2021)

NYC begins registering travelers at COVID-19 checkpoints


Travelers arriving in New York City by car and train are being reminded to quarantine for two weeks if they have been to states with high rates of coronavirus infection.




www.local10.com


----------



## MARC Rider (Mar 7, 2021)

jis said:


> NYC begins registering travelers at COVID-19 checkpoints
> 
> 
> Travelers arriving in New York City by car and train are being reminded to quarantine for two weeks if they have been to states with high rates of coronavirus infection.
> ...


This is rich. According to the the New York State website,  all travelers from out of state have to quarantine. However, many states, like mine, seem to have much lower rates of new Codvid than New York. According to today's (3/7/21) Washington Post, the national rate of cases is 18 per 100,000 residents. The rate for Maryland is 12 per 100,00, and the rate for New York is 38 per 100,000. So who should be quarantined? Anyway, until New York's numbers come down, I guess I can hold off visiting the Moynihan Train Hall.


----------



## jis (Mar 7, 2021)

If all you are going to do is visit the Moynihan Train Hall, and that is something that you can do in a couple of hours, the whole quarantine thing is moot. Effectively you are just connecting through New York on a train from Maryland to a train to Maryland. They won't force you to fulfill the 3, 10, or 14 day quarantine requirement when you'll be at Penn Station for a couple of hours only.


----------

