# Amtrak LD (and Other) Ridership and Revenue Projections FY 2017-20



## Philly Amtrak Fan (Aug 7, 2016)

I found Amtrak's ridership and revenue projections for this year and the next four fiscal years in their FY 16-20 Five-Year Financial Plan. This is the most up to date data I could find.

https://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/844/40/FY16-Business-Plan-FY17-Budget-Justification-FY-16-20-Five-Year-Financial-Plan.pdf

The report was released in February 2016. I assume they did not figure in the recent changes to the CZ and Palmetto.

These are listed in order of ridership along with FY 2015 data (https://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/322/821/Amtrak-Monthly-Performance-Report-September-2015-Preliminary-Unaudited.pdf). Revenue is in millions

Coast Starlight 510,952 $56.3 (455,845 $41.1): 12% increase ridership, 37% increase revenue

Empire Builder 453,165 $61.7 (438,376 $50.5): 3%/ 22%

Silver Star 413,776 $43.9 (383,347 $33.1): 8%/33%

California Zephyr 392,892 $60.7 (375,342 $48.8): 5%/24%

Silver Meteor 383,144 $52.1 (346,097 $38.5): 11%/35%

Southwest Chief 381,883 $54.4 (367,267 $44.9): 4%/21%

Lake Shore Limited 381,321 $37.6 (356,898 $28.5): 7%/32%

Texas Eagle 360,674 $33.4 (317,282 $24.4): 14%/37%

Auto Train 299,149 $98.7 (271,622 $81.6): 10%/21%

Crescent 298,299 $40.0 (281,777 $31.3): 6%/28%

City of New Orleans 272,173 $23.4 (255,458 $19.4): 7%/21%

Capitol Limited 241,172 $23.9 (226,240 $19.1): 7%/25%

Palmetto 229,365 $21.5 (208,645 $16.9): 10%/27%

Sunset Limited 109,649 $15.3 (100,713 $11.6): 9%/32%

Cardinal 108,460 $10.1 (103,633 $7.6): 5%/33%

The % increase in ridership over 5 years is estimated between 3% (EB) to 14% (TE) and the % increase in revenue between 21% (SWC/AT/CONO) to 37% (CS/TE). Amtrak probably sees the most growth in the CS, SM, and TE as all three are projected to have double digit % increases in ridership and 35% or higher increases in revenue. Of course they don't factor in the recent changes to the Palmetto/CZ. Currently the CZ is running ahead of the EB in terms of revenue for FY 16 (https://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/367/406/Amtrak-Monthly-Performance-Report-June-2016.pdf) so I would expect it to eventually be the highest LD/non-AT revenue maker.


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## unitedstatesfan (Aug 8, 2016)

Given that a number of the western LD trains require five sets (such as 'Empire Builder'), what percentage of Amtrak's Superliner sleeping cars (and separately) sitting cars are in an 'active' set at any one time?

What I am leading to is - does each class have spare cars available for traffic; if so, roughly how many given normal maintenance requirements (which at times might include planned refurbishments.)

If I am not mistaken at present Amtrak attaches extra cars at times for Denver, Colorado and Reno, Nevada passengers.

Is there some scope for an extra sleeper and/or extra sitting car to be attached to certain LD western trains and if so which ones? Or given the grades at times on some of the LD routes, have the the typical two GE locos on say a 10 or 11 car train more or less already reached the limit of what they can haul at the median speed between stations demanded by the Amtrak working timetable?


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## neroden (Aug 11, 2016)

The CZ requires *six* sets.


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