# Southeast HSR: Real vs. "notional"



## CHamilton (Feb 24, 2014)

Carolina High Speed Rail & The Piedmont Service


> The Southeast HSR corridor can be divided between the "real" SEHSR corridor, where there is actual, ongoing work on improving the speed and, even more critically, the capacity of the corridor in support of services that will begin operating within the current decade, and the "notional" SEHSR corridor, the land of feasibility studies and preliminary planning, where even if a pedal to the metal intercity rail investment program were to commence in 2017, any new services entering into operation before the latter half of next decade would be subsidized conventional rail service.
> And given the importance of state governments in the current bottom-up process of intercity rail development, it should be unsurprising that the boundary between the two part of the SEHSR runs quite close to a state boundary.... Georgia lies in the middle of "notional" SEHSR country, with Rapid Rail connections to Birmingham; Columbus, GA; Savanna; Charlotte, NC; and Chattanooga / Nashville / Louisville at various stages of being studied, but without active ongoing investment. By contrast, there is current active investment and planned roll-out of new service throughout Virginia and North Carolina, all the way through to Charlotte, NC.



More history and analysis in the original article.


----------



## xyzzy (Feb 24, 2014)

It's a stretch to say that current Raleigh-Charlotte trip times are attributable to SEHSR. Former NC Gov. Jim Hunt had "the vision" of 2 hours flat for Raleigh-Charlotte long before anyone talked about SEHSR. Many of the improvements that made the current 3 hrs 10 mins running time possible were not attributable to SEHSR. The hard truth is that Raleigh-Charlotte is and will remain 79 mph for the foreseeable future. Even the amended target of 2 hrs 30 mins that NCDOT quietly adopted after Hunt left office cannot be met with 79 mph running. SEHSR calls for Raleigh-Charlotte to increase to 90 mph eventually -- but the program to do that is not funded, just like the program to restore the ex-Seaboard between Raleigh and Petersburg for 110 mph is not funded. How long it will take to obtain funding is anyone's guess.


----------



## Anderson (Feb 24, 2014)

Well, the question of "attributable to SEHSR" depends on definitions. As noted in the article, the general thrust for HSR in the WAS-CLT/ATL corridor goes back to the early 90s, even if the project has morphed repeatedly.

The article (and attendant discussions) don't note the funding situation in VA ($50m/yr, increasing with inflation...I think the total I calculated was about $2.5bn over the next 25-30 years), which is going to play at least some role given the negligible subsidies VA's services require (to say nothing of the likely effects of increasing tolls, etc.). So there's substantial non-federal funding available for improvements, and as a result there's a good chance that some improvements can tap into TIGER grants and the like. At this point, the biggest question is going to be whether you can get a VA-style funding program together in NC, since the two states _ought_ to be able to cover most of a major improvement programme without excessive federal involvement.

For reference, the Norfolk service has involved absolutely _no_ federal funding.

As to travel times, WAS-RGH may never get under 4-5 hours, but it seems like a plausible market. At the moment, short-notice tickets in that air market seem to run in the $300 range round-trip. Rail may not be able to fight directly on time, but it can certainly do damage in terms of cost.


----------



## Nathanael (Feb 25, 2014)

Good old Bruce McF.

Anyway, Raleigh-Charlotte will probably go up to 90 mph max sooner rather than later (since PTC eliminates the arbitrary 79 mph speed limit), but given the sheer number of curves, that won't make much difference. It's all about straightening out the slow bits (lots of 'em) and double-tracking, and most of that is in progress.

The program to restore Raleigh-Petersburg is a huge unfunded deal, of course, but at least it's cranking its way through all the studies and environmental impact statements. If North Carolina puts in a serious bundle of money again, next up is probably Charlotte Gateway station, but after that, Raleigh-Petersburg might be next up. But North Carolina funding is very much in question right now.

Virginia is flush with funding now, but connecting to NC is going to be Virginia's last priority after everything in Virginia -- after the now-committed Roanoke extension, I expect to see the "Transdominion Express" plan revived with direct Lynchburg-Richmond service and an extension to Bristol. (At which point I will probably be embarrassed by how badly New York is doing.)


----------



## xyzzy (Feb 25, 2014)

I wouldn't say that "most" of the straightening is in progress. I'd say "some" of it is. Most of the straightening projects are between Greensboro and Durham.

Between Charlotte and Greensboro, I'd say that "most" of the double-tracking is in progress, although the hardest part -- the section of single-track at the Charlotte end -- is the worst piece and remains to be done. The plan has never been for 100% double-track between Greensboro and Cary, but NCDOT/NCRR is adding and improving sidings on a fairly regular basis.

PTC is unfunded.


----------



## Anderson (Feb 25, 2014)

Nathanael,
I don't think Raleigh-Petersburg is as far down the list as you place it...but that has to do with the relative performance of the TDX in the studies done on that front, in particular, as well as some aspects of SEHSR. Basically, as long as NC doesn't leave VA on the hook, I think SEHSR happens in some fashion sooner rather than later. The main question is what happens in what order.

Right now, as I understand it, the plans are for Roanoke to get service by FY17 and for Norfolk to get 3x daily trains by FY18. These two projects are expected to cost the state about $175m. Once you get out past about FY18, two things happen:
(1) Lots of funds become uncommitted. Although there are projects in line, the time it takes to run some of those studies means that the state doesn't have a lot of funds allocated specifically beyond FY18.
(2) Studies start wrapping up. Preliminary engineering work on the RVR-WAS 90 MPH MAS work is set to wrap in FY16, though EIS work there wraps much later (it looks set to go until FY19).

It should also be noted that the DRPT's budget indicates $60m in operating and capital subsidies for VA's trains through FY19 ($34m operating, $26m capital). Based on Amtrak's reports to date, this number seems a bit high, at least on the operating side...so counting funds already not obligated, there should be at least $100m available through FY19.

VA's first priority at that point is likely going to be improvements between Washington and Petersburg, with pressure for a second train to Lynchburg and/or Roanoke a close second. However, I think that if NC is onboard with the project, there's a good chance that PTB-RGH will occupy a higher priority than we'd think now.


----------



## afigg (Feb 26, 2014)

Anderson said:


> Nathanael,
> 
> I don't think Raleigh-Petersburg is as far down the list as you place it...but that has to do with the relative performance of the TDX in the studies done on that front, in particular, as well as some aspects of SEHSR. Basically, as long as NC doesn't leave VA on the hook, I think SEHSR happens in some fashion sooner rather than later. The main question is what happens in what order.
> 
> ...


While VA will have funds for passenger rail projects, have to keep some perspective. $60 to $80 million a year will get things done over time between WAS and PTB. But without substantial federal funds, VA could spend all its money over the next 10 years on the WAS to PTB segment and restoring service through RVM and still have more work to do. There are big ticket items such as the Long Bridge replacement which is estimated to be in the $500 million to $1 billion price range depending on which design alternative is selected. VA won't be paying for all of it, but VA and VRE will be expected to pick up a sizable piece of the price tag.

The problem with the SEHSR PTB to RGH segment is that it could take several billion before service could start on the restored line. It is a big step function compared to the option of a series of incremental improvements between WAS and PTB and on the Piedmont corridor. I don't see work getting started on that segment without substantial federal funding in a restored HSIPR type program.

What I don't know are what NC's plans are past 2017, once the federally funded projects are completed. Will NC continue a viable state funded program to pay for more track improvement projects on the Piedmont corridor or extend service to other cities in NC as has been in the long term plans? NC underwent a big shift in the legislature and new Governor in the 2012 elections and I don't know how solid the support is for further expansion of train service beyond what the current projects. Of course, the pendulum may swing back to the moderates in the 2014 and 2016 elections, but at this point, can't count on NC to support SEHSR beyond the studies.


----------



## xyzzy (Feb 26, 2014)

Nobody knows where NC will take its program. The baseline option, #1, is to spend no more money on track improvements and simply to keep the service as it exists today. Option 2 is pouring more money into Charlotte-Raleigh; NCDOT still wants to get 2 hrs 30 mins with 5 trains a day each way (including 79/80). There is a new station to be built in Charlotte. Option 3 is adding trains to Asheville and/or Wilmington. Option 4 is real SEHSR with the S-line rebuild for 110 mph. Problem is, given the reality that Virginia isn't going to pay anything for SEHSR south of Petersburg (and understandably so), option 4 costs about as much as options 1-3 combined.


----------



## afigg (Sep 18, 2015)

This appears to be the most recent thread on the Southeast "HSR" corridor proposal. If there is a more appropriate one, perhaps the forum managers can move my post.

There is news today for the Richmond to Raleigh segment of the Southeast HSR route. After what seems to have been years, the FRA and US DOT have signed off on the Final EIS. US DOT press release: Foxx: Richmond-to-Raleigh High-Speed Rail Proposal Receives All Clear. Excerpt:



> WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT)’s Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), the State of North Carolina and the Commonwealth of Virginia announced today that they have signed off on the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for the proposed Richmond to Raleigh (R2R) passenger rail line along the Southeast Corridor. The completion of the FEIS is one of the final steps necessary before construction of the project can move forward once funding is secured.
> 
> “Without a strong passenger rail system, the Southeast’s growth will be choked by congestion for a very long time,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx said. “North Carolina, Virginia and the Department of Transportation have worked together to bring us closer to high-speed rail connecting Richmond and Raleigh, and I urge everyone involved to continue pushing this effort forward. High-speed rail in this region is not a luxury but a necessity.”
> 
> The 162-mile route between the two cities would utilize existing and former rail lines for approximately 60 percent of the route and is planned to be free from at-grade crossings of track and roads. This route is part of a larger multi-state planning effort to provide high-speed passenger service between Washington, D.C., and Atlanta. In July, Secretary Foxx announced that the Department of Transportation would invest approximately $1 million to develop a regional long-term vision for the corridor and engage states and stakeholders to help the region form a governance organization that can sustain planning efforts and implement the vision.


There is a link to the FEIS document in the on-line press release and it is available on the FRA website eLibrary section. It is a large ~57 MB PDF FEIS document, so don't download it until you have the bandwidth.

Without a substantial federal funding source, I don't see NC and VA proceeding ahead on a 110 mph fully grade separated corridor from Richmond to Raleigh. So the talk about a slower 79 mph corridor with a lot of grade crossings left in place may be the only way for VA and NC to advance the corridor plans.


----------



## jis (Sep 18, 2015)

Suffice it to say that they could do a 90mph corridor with grade crossing. They could even do a 110mph one with grade crossings. Sealed corridor is needed only above 110mph. They have the technology for doing 110mph corridor with grade crossings in the Michigan ITCS setup.


----------



## Anderson (Sep 20, 2015)

Can anyone find the appendix/appendicies? There's a reference to there being several (one including fleshed-out ridership stuff) but I can't find it anywhere in the document.


----------



## neroden (Sep 20, 2015)

I couldn't find the appendices. (I was looking for the route maps, to figure out exactly what routes they chose in the vicinity of Raleigh and of Richmond).


----------



## afigg (Sep 20, 2015)

Anderson said:


> Can anyone find the appendix/appendicies? There's a reference to there being several (one including fleshed-out ridership stuff) but I can't find it anywhere in the document.


I could not find them at the FRA eLibrary site. The SEHSR Corridor site has become a page with links to NC DOT for Raleigh to Richmond and VDRPT for Richmond to DC studies.

The NCDOT Southeast High Speed Rail (Raleigh to Richmond) Tier II Study page has links to the appendices for the 2010 Tier II draft including a Volume III Appendix Q Map book. The Final EIS might have made final selection on the alternatives on the route, but the draft Appendix documents may be close to the final version. That the draft Tier II EIS is dated 2010, a recommendation report is dated 2012 and the FEIS was completed and signed off on in 2015 shows just how slow the alternatives analysis, the alternative decision and environmental assessment process has become in the US.


----------



## WestBerkeleyFlats (Sep 22, 2015)

Plans approved without funding - http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/article_bc143b85-41e7-5bb4-b067-6f2087be6f55.html


----------



## neroden (Sep 22, 2015)

Thanks, afigg. That has the maps I was looking for.

Honestly, I'm not surprised this one took a long time: by the end we have a complete, engineered route measured out down to the meter all the way from DC to Raleigh.

What gets me is when much, much simpler projects take longer than this.


----------



## afigg (Oct 2, 2015)

I checked the FRA eLibrary website and saw that 19 Appendix documents were posted on September 30 and October 1 for the SEHSR Richmond to Raleigh segment FEIS for those interested in the nitty gritty details. Search link that should turn them up.


----------

