# Covid will dictate the future



## Ferroequinologist

This morning's Wall Street Journal includes an article on the likelihood that Covid-19 is becoming endemic, i.e. that it may be here indefinitely. The New York Times this morning writes about the British variant of the virus which is rapidly spreading in the US. Meanwhile last week there were many reports that the vaccines may not prevent transmission. All of this points to the likelihood that social distancing and masks are permanent. What does this mean for Amtrak? First of all, it seems realistic to conclude that the dining-car will never return. Even before Covid there were reports of passengers, especially younger ones, who did not like sitting with strangers. That aside, the reality now is that it is unsafe to do so and may remain so for a very long time, possibly forever. It seems much more likely that Amtrak will have to focus on improving food quality both in cafe cars which will provide take out service and for 1st class passengers who will be served in their rooms. Another factor that will need to be addressed is that of shared toilets. If anything has improved in recent decades, it is in the standard of bathroom amenities. Both homes and hotels now emphasize comfortable and well equipped bathrooms. People have come to expect a high standard. This makes the use of shared toilets for long distance passengers all the less acceptable. Amtrak will need to reconfigure its next sleeping car order to include in room toilets, preferably en suite (enclosed in a separate room as in existing Bedrooms). With Covid and its variants likely to be around for decades, if not forever, Amtrak will have to incorporate health safety measures into the design of its equipment and service model. What do readers of this website think? How do they think Amtrak should adapt to the changing social conditions Covid has created?


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## AmtrakBlue

Hmm, you're saying sleepers pax should have the PRIVILEGE of not having to use a shared bathroom, but what is your suggestion for coach pax? 

I personally don't think bathrooms are unsafe. It's not like I'm within 6 foot of someone talking.


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## IndyLions

A couple of things. First, while Covid may be here to stay - how deadly will it be after the vaccination? If the vaccines and boosters don’t stop the spread - but the mortality rate goes down by a couple of orders of magnitude - society will go back to “normal”. Then it truly will be like the flu.

Secondly, I have no doubt that restaurants and public restrooms are not going away, even if Covid continues to be a factor. As it pertains to Amtrak - I could see some people wanting private restrooms and/or eat in their room - but those options already existed pre-Covid.

The factors that cause people to accept public restrooms (lower cost) and to want to eat in a dining car (better food & the experience) will also continue. If diners go away, it will be cost-based - not because of Covid.


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## Ferroequinologist

IndyLions said:


> A couple of things. First, while Covid may be here to stay - how deadly will it be after the vaccination? If the vaccines and boosters don’t stop the spread - but the mortality rate goes down by a couple of orders of magnitude - society will go back to “normal”. Then it truly will be like the flu.
> 
> Secondly, I have no doubt that restaurants and public restrooms are not going away, even if Covid continues to be a factor. As it pertains to Amtrak - I could see some people wanting private restrooms and/or eat in their room - but those options already existed pre-Covid.
> 
> The factors that cause people to accept public restrooms (lower cost) and to want to eat in a dining car (better food & the experience) will also continue. If diners go away, it will be cost-based - not because of Covid.



Restaurants on the ground won't go away but they will have to continue distancing if these reports prove true. There isn't a way of distancing people in the dining-car. For a variety of reasons I think the dining-car is finished. New trains are going to be needed. This will be the time to redesign sleepers to include en suite bathrooms. The old Roomettes accommodated one, not two people, and at least had a toilet and sink. Current Roomettes are far too small for two. It's an unacceptable design. It would be a mistake to repeat it, especially with the likelihood of a virus that lasts for many years in one form or another.


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## jis

Shared toilets may not be one of the more high risk activities one indulges in relative to COVID transmission, specially if standard procedures of hygiene are followed. The Bar from which one walked into the toilet may always be more dangerous.



https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/how-risky-is-using-a-public-bathroom-during-the-pandemic-2020071420556


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## AmtrakBlue

They are able to social distance in the diners. They just won’t be able to seat a lot of people for each time slot.
I ate in the CZ diner last fall. I had the table to myself. No one was seated at the tables next to mine nor at the table across from me. A couple was at a table across diagonally from me. Singles, like myself, were at the other tables.


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## Mailliw

I refused to travel in Viewliner I roomettes because of the toilet issue and Bedrooms are ridiculously unaffordable for solo travelers. I'm looking forward to the Viewliner IIs. Sleeping cars are expensive enought as is; increasing the the size of all accommodation to include ensuite facilities is unnecessary and likely to increase fares further out of reach for Millennials and Post-Millennials. Dining with strangers isn't what kept younger travelers out of dining cars; it was the high prices.


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## Dakota 400

Ferroequinologist said:


> This morning's Wall Street Journal includes an article on the likelihood that Covid-19 is becoming endemic, i.e. that it may be here indefinitely. The New York Times this morning writes about the British variant of the virus which is rapidly spreading in the US.



Will Covid be like the flu, polio, measles, etc. and be with us forever? Yes, I can accept that and just like other diseases we will find a way of living with it. The Flu virus mutates yearly, it seems, and our scientists find a way to make a vaccine that helps to fight this new variant. Sometimes, more successfully than other times. 

We need to get Covid under control before we will be able to comfortably begin to learn to live with this. The vaccines and following the recommended safety proposals ought to get us to that point. Hopefully, before the 2022 New Year's Baby is on the horizon. 

I envision the need to get a yearly Covid vaccine shot as well as my usual yearly flu shot. 

I hope that the need to wear masks and be socially distanced will no longer be required.


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## jis

Before they started working on COVID vaccines they were already working on mRNA vaccines for Influenza. 









New Kids on the Block: RNA-Based Influenza Virus Vaccines


RNA-based immunization strategies have emerged as promising alternatives to conventional vaccine approaches. A substantial body of published work demonstrates that RNA vaccines can elicit potent, protective immune responses against various pathogens. ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





Who knows one day we might get a single mRNA multivalent shot covering both Influenza and COVID?


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## Devil's Advocate

Ferroequinologist said:


> Another factor that will need to be addressed is that of shared toilets.


I've yet to see anything that indicates secondary surface contact is a significant issue with this pandemic. Conversely I've seen lots of evidence that aerosolized transmission remains the primary transmission vector.



Ferroequinologist said:


> If anything has improved in recent decades, it is in the standard of bathroom amenities. Both homes and hotels now emphasize comfortable and well equipped bathrooms. People have come to expect a high standard.


Long before the pandemic most hotels I visited were removing and downgrading bathroom amenities (like quality bar soap) and replacing them with low quality crap (like neon "bodywash" goop).



Ferroequinologist said:


> This makes the use of shared toilets for long distance passengers all the less acceptable. Amtrak will need to reconfigure its next sleeping car order to include in room toilets, preferably en suite (enclosed in a separate room as in existing Bedrooms).


At best around half of our members seem to want toilets inside their room. The other half do _not_ want restrooms in our sleeping compartments. I'm not sure how many times this has to be repeated but I guess we're not done yet.


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## TinCan782

AmtrakBlue said:


> They are able to social distance in the diners. They just won’t be able to seat a lot of people for each time slot.
> I ate in the CZ diner last fall. I had the table to myself. No one was seated at the tables next to mine nor at the table across from me. A couple was at a table across diagonally from me. Singles, like myself, were at the other tables.


Last fall on the Coast Starlight, California Zephyr and Empire Builder, diners were as you described. We all of our meals in the diner (instead of in our room) on those trains and felt safe doing so with the distancing. Tables were cleaned/sanitized after every use. Diners are open on most trains.


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## Ferroequinologist

Devil's Advocate said:


> I've yet to see anything that indicates secondary surface contact is a significant issue with this pandemic. Conversely I've seen lots of evidence that aerosolized transmission remains the primary transmission vector.
> 
> 
> Long before the pandemic most hotels I visited were removing and downgrading bathroom amenities (like quality bar soap) and replacing them with low quality crap (like neon "bodywash" goop).
> 
> 
> At best around half of our members seem to want toilets inside their room. The other half do _not_ want restrooms in our sleeping compartments. I'm not sure how many times this has to be repeated but I guess we're not done yet.




Isn't the issue what the general public want, not just rail fans? I disagree that standards of hygiene have dropped. Hotels have far more luxurious bathrooms than they have ever had. Some hotels have reduced moisturizers and that sort of thing but bathrooms remain a million times better than they were a few decades ago. Public bathrooms: the virus lingers in the air, hence small unventilated public toilets on trains are highly risky.


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## Mailliw

Just be clear I have no problem with ensuite facilities as long as it's own cubicle with a door. Otherwise I'm fine with saving money with shared facilities. If half of passengers want ensuites and half don't then the logical thing to do would offer compartments both with and without them and let passengers choose.


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## jiml

Mailliw said:


> If half of passengers want ensuites and half don't then the logical thing to do would offer compartments both with and without them and let passengers choose.


Until you were reassigned or there was an equipment change. (and I have no preference)


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## Mailliw

I meant something more along the lines how the Superliners and Viewliner IIs offer a choice between ensuite Bedrooms and cheaper Roomettes with shared facilities.


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## flitcraft

COVID may very well be here indefinitely, but how it is experienced will depend on how our governments and societies deal with it. Mutations are a problem that turns on the number of infections--every new infection is an opportunity for a mutation. This is why it is critical that vaccines be provided to all countries, whether they can afford them or not. Anywhere the virus runs rampant is a mutation-situs waiting to happen. 

If and when people realize that vaccines are the key to something like normal life returning, I am optimistic that we can drive infection rates down to the point where mutations are less of a problem. In the meantime, we have to be vigilant about avoiding spread--wear a mask today so you don't have to wear a mask forever.


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## Mailliw

Given everything I've seen over the past year I'm very pessimistic about Americans' ability to maintain restrictions like social distancing or mask wearing long term. If things are mostly back to normal by the end of the year it's going to become impossible to enforce any restrictions and politics and tribalism will get even worse.


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## LookingGlassTie

I think that once COVID-19 becomes endemic, a lot more people will want to return to normal, because at that point we will (or should) learn to live with that particular coronavirus and manage it pretty much the same way as other viruses. I will say though that there will probably be many holdouts in terms of social distancing, masks, etc.

As for me, I want to live with the COVID-19 coronavirus and manage it as I would other coronaviruses (such as those which cause the common cold). 

If I happen to ride on Amtrak while its mask policy is still in force, I will abide by that. However, I will otherwise treat my train trip as I normally would.


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## Barb Stout

Even when the pandemic is pacified, I believe I will continue to wear masks a lot when I'm out because I found mask-wearing to have other benefits, some unexpected, including 
1) less allergies
2) I haven't gotten any kind of infectious illness this year. Along the same lines
3) I'm hearing that the flu season has been almost non-existent so far
4) Less exhaustion and nausea during/after exercise. Elaboration: For some reason, when I'm breathing hard as in exercising (walking is my current exercise) or out in a breeze, I will frequently get nauseous and totally exhausted and it takes the rest of the day to recover. I believe that's because some of the excess air that I'm breathing in gets into my GI tract and gets it agitated. I'm not really sure if that's the reason, but when I wear a mask, I haven't gotten nauseous and I experience less exhaustion while out walking. I totally did not expect that. I expected to be more exhausted after exercising while wearing a mask, but the opposite occurred.
5) Wearing a mask cuts down on detection of any bad smells (unless the bad smells are emanating from my mouth) that might be in the area.


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## 20th Century Rider

Barb Stout said:


> Even when the pandemic is pacified, I believe I will continue to wear masks a lot when I'm out because I found mask-wearing to have other benefits, some unexpected, including
> 1) less allergies
> 2) I haven't gotten any kind of infectious illness this year. Along the same lines
> 3) I'm hearing that the flu season has been almost non-existent so far
> 4) Less exhaustion and nausea during/after exercise. Elaboration: For some reason, when I'm breathing hard as in exercising (walking is my current exercise) or out in a breeze, I will frequently get nauseous and totally exhausted and it takes the rest of the day to recover. I believe that's because some of the excess air that I'm breathing in gets into my GI tract and gets it agitated. I'm not really sure if that's the reason, but when I wear a mask, I haven't gotten nauseous and I experience less exhaustion while out walking. I totally did not expect that. I expected to be more exhausted after exercising while wearing a mask, but the opposite occurred.
> 5) Wearing a mask cuts down on detection of any bad smells (unless the bad smells are emanating from my mouth) that might be in the area.



I've been double masking recently... and began mask wearing 10 months ago. I also got a flu shot. What has been real for me... other than getting used to masking... no colds and no flu for this year... which has been a problem in the past.

There are clearly benefits to wearing masks in addition to protection against COVID, which is now estimated to become endemic.

Am hoping new technologies will bring masks that are more comfortable, more effective, and easier to wear. BTW... it does infuriate me when I see people in crowded place not wearing masks... very selfish and inconsiderate!!!

Please everyone... be considerate and wear a mask!


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## Ziv

Barb, your comment made me laugh at myself. I have been shortening my time between dental teeth cleanings from 6 months to 4 months and I really ought to invest in Listerine because I have become WAY MORE conscientious about good dental hygiene of late! LOL!
One minor upside of mask wearing!



Barb Stout said:


> ...
> 5) Wearing a mask cuts down on detection of any bad smells (unless the bad smells are emanating from my mouth) that might be in the area.


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## Barb Stout

Ziv said:


> Barb, your comment made me laugh at myself. I have been shortening my time between dental teeth cleanings from 6 months to 4 months and I really ought to invest in Listerine because I have become WAY MORE conscientious about good dental hygiene of late! LOL!
> One minor upside of mask wearing!


Yep, mask mouth smell is a great motivator for me to brush and so forth after every meal or non-water drink.


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## 20th Century Rider

flitcraft said:


> COVID may very well be here indefinitely, but how it is experienced will depend on how our governments and societies deal with it. Mutations are a problem that turns on the number of infections--every new infection is an opportunity for a mutation. This is why it is critical that vaccines be provided to all countries, whether they can afford them or not. Anywhere the virus runs rampant is a mutation-situs waiting to happen.
> 
> If and when people realize that vaccines are the key to something like normal life returning, I am optimistic that we can drive infection rates down to the point where mutations are less of a problem. In the meantime, we have to be vigilant about avoiding spread--wear a mask today so you don't have to wear a mask forever.





Barb Stout said:


> Even when the pandemic is pacified, I believe I will continue to wear masks a lot when I'm out because I found mask-wearing to have other benefits, some unexpected, including
> 1) less allergies
> 2) I haven't gotten any kind of infectious illness this year. Along the same lines
> 3) I'm hearing that the flu season has been almost non-existent so far
> 4) Less exhaustion and nausea during/after exercise. Elaboration: For some reason, when I'm breathing hard as in exercising (walking is my current exercise) or out in a breeze, I will frequently get nauseous and totally exhausted and it takes the rest of the day to recover. I believe that's because some of the excess air that I'm breathing in gets into my GI tract and gets it agitated. I'm not really sure if that's the reason, but when I wear a mask, I haven't gotten nauseous and I experience less exhaustion while out walking. I totally did not expect that. I expected to be more exhausted after exercising while wearing a mask, but the opposite occurred.
> 5) Wearing a mask cuts down on detection of any bad smells (unless the bad smells are emanating from my mouth) that might be in the area.


Some take aways from this immense COVID tragedy... 

Mask wearing may become more commonplace with technologies innovating more comfortable and effective facial protections in an ever more populous world.

Restaurants will maintain some kind of see through dividers that prevent the spread of bacteria when someone sneezes or is talking when chewing... which has always been annoying!

Picture and sound platforms that connect people was available before COVID, but may gain in favor as a way of avoiding travel to business meetings.

I believe that passenger trains and planes will permanently upgrade health protocols... remembering the bad bad case of flu I got after traversing the country from Oregon to Maine two years ago.. being so sick that I stayed in my hotel room trying to recover, before getting on the train for the 5 day trip back.

Only time will tell!


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## Devil's Advocate

Ferroequinologist said:


> Isn't the issue what the general public want, not just rail fans?


I can only go by what people tell us they want and what Amtrak does with limited funds. Apparently the in-room toilet is not as big of a deal as previously assumed. That said, if you have evidence that most of the general public needs in-room toilets and that improved ventilation and cleaning would be insufficient to keep them safe then post it here.



Ferroequinologist said:


> I disagree that standards of hygiene have dropped. Hotels have far more luxurious bathrooms than they have ever had. Some hotels have reduced moisturizers and that sort of thing but bathrooms remain a million times better than they were a few decades ago.


What standards and which hotels are you talking about? Over the last few decades I've visited around 70 brands across hundreds of locations but I have not seen the "million times better" improvement you have.


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## 20th Century Rider

Mask wearing is here to stay... that is... double masking is here to stay... even after you get the vaccine.

No... it's not my personal opinion... it's what the doctors are telling us to do!

Reality is not only a pleasant topic.  









I've had my Covid-19 vaccine -- now what can I safely do? Your questions answered | CNN


If you're one of the lucky ones to get your Covid-19 vaccine shots, what's next? When can you take off your mask, eat inside a restaurant, travel, go to sporting events and concerts and visit friends and family? Experts give their advice.




www.cnn.com













Double masking for Covid-19 protection: A trend with a purpose | CNN


Some public health officials are suggesting double masking as a way to add protection from the deadly coronavirus and its multiple, more contagious variants.




www.cnn.com


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## bratkinson

I've read many conflicting articles regarding masking, double masking, no masking, masking after vaccination, etc, to be convinced one way or another. Even the 'supreme health dictator' Dr Fauci has flip-flopped from one to another in the past 12 months and in some instances, disagreed with the CDC. Yes, masking and Covid and its variants will be with us forever.

And for what it's worth, thus far, I have 3 friends over the age of 75 that had Covid and recovered completely...none of the over 70s I know that have had it have died.

And in my case, having sinusitus and moderate emphysema, and taking a medication that has side effects that mimic allergies (especially sinus congestion and sneezing), whenever I put a mask on, I'm good for maybe 5-10 minutes before I realize that I am being starved of oxygen, eg, hypoxia, light headedness and all. I have no choice but to remove my mask for a minute or so to catch my breath, as it were. Double masking? Would literally end up on my dead body, in my opinion.


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## jis

There are now high quality filter masks with forced air delivery using a small LiIon battery (chargeable using any standard USB-C connector equipped charger) driven electric feeder available in the market to address the sort of problem you have. So all hope is not lost.


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## 20th Century Rider

bratkinson said:


> I've read many conflicting articles regarding masking, double masking, no masking, masking after vaccination, etc, to be convinced one way or another. Even the 'supreme health dictator' Dr Fauci has flip-flopped from one to another in the past 12 months and in some instances, disagreed with the CDC. Yes, masking and Covid and its variants will be with us forever.
> 
> And for what it's worth, thus far, I have 3 friends over the age of 75 that had Covid and recovered completely...none of the over 70s I know that have had it have died.
> 
> And in my case, having sinusitus and moderate emphysema, and taking a medication that has side effects that mimic allergies (especially sinus congestion and sneezing), whenever I put a mask on, I'm good for maybe 5-10 minutes before I realize that I am being starved of oxygen, eg, hypoxia, light headedness and all. I have no choice but to remove my mask for a minute or so to catch my breath, as it were. Double masking? Would literally end up on my dead body, in my opinion.



Always better to er on the side of caution...


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## Devil's Advocate

bratkinson said:


> I've read many conflicting articles regarding masking, double masking, no masking, masking after vaccination, etc, to be convinced one way or another. Even the 'supreme health dictator' Dr Fauci has flip-flopped from one to another in the past 12 months and in some instances, disagreed with the CDC.


A "supreme health dictator" would have locked the country down with shelter-in-place orders. That in no way resembles what Fauchi actually believes or the position that he actually holds. You seem to be really confused.



bratkinson said:


> I'm good for maybe 5-10 minutes before I realize that I am being starved of oxygen, eg, hypoxia, light headedness and all. I have no choice but to remove my mask for a minute or so to catch my breath, as it were.


If you can't survive wearing a mask without losing consciousness it's doubtful you can survive Covid.


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## joelkfla

bratkinson said:


> I've read many conflicting articles regarding masking, double masking, no masking, masking after vaccination, etc, to be convinced one way or another. Even the 'supreme health dictator' Dr Fauci has flip-flopped from one to another in the past 12 months and in some instances, disagreed with the CDC. Yes, masking and Covid and its variants will be with us forever.


Dr. Fauci has not flip-flopped. His opinions have evolved as more data has become available. He has never advocated not to wear a mask after the benefits became clear.


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## jiml

Devil's Advocate said:


> What standards and which hotels are you talking about? Over the last few decades I've visited around 70 brands across hundreds of locations but I have not seen the "million times better" improvement you have.


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## sttom

Ferroequinologist said:


> Even before Covid there were reports of passengers, especially younger ones, who did not like sitting with strangers. That aside, the reality now is that it is unsafe to do so and may remain so for a very long time, possibly forever. It seems much more likely that Amtrak will have to focus on improving food quality both in cafe cars which will provide take out service and for 1st class passengers who will be served in their rooms.
> 
> Another factor that will need to be addressed is that of shared toilets. If anything has improved in recent decades, it is in the standard of bathroom amenities. Both homes and hotels now emphasize comfortable and well equipped bathrooms. People have come to expect a high standard. This makes the use of shared toilets for long distance passengers all the less acceptable.



I personally don't think COVID has forever changed the way we travel. We might expect things to be cleaner than we have accepted before, but outside of that I doubt much if anything will change. 

On the first point, as one of these illusive Millennials destroying the transportation world, I may want to have the option to sit with just my partner in the dining car to enjoy a steak, but that doesn't mean I want that meal to be steak 'ums and tater tots. Plenty of Amtrak's predecessors had 2 person tables and counters to eat at, it wouldn't be a stretch to add those. 

How are shared toilets that big of a deal? So long as they are clean and stocked, how is it a big deal? I know some people want a toilet in the roomettes, I personally don't and a bunch of others don't. Even if every room type got ensuite facilities, coach passengers will still have to share bathrooms. If you are worried about the transmission of COVID or the flu, increasing the number of times the air circulates would do more good than making sure everyone has their own toilet. 

Also where are these places where hotel bathrooms are getting dramatically better? I'm sure the high end hotels are getting better, but nowhere I have stayed in....frankly as long as I can remember hasn't been that dramatically better as time went on. Yeah styles have changed, but I wouldn't consider style changing a dramatic improvement over whatever the style was 15 years ago. No matter what the style, you will still have a sink, toilet and shower whether or not they are hot pink or the gray that is in vogue now, the bathroom will still be functionally the same.


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## Dakota 400

bratkinson said:


> Double masking? Would literally end up on my dead body, in my opinion.



Wearing a single mask tasks my respiratory system significantly. Wearing a double mask? Maybe we could get a significant discount on a dual funeral. 

Some of those who don't have shortness of breath issues lack the understanding of those of us who do. May their time never come that they experience such.


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## Cal

Ferroequinologist said:


> Restaurants on the ground won't go away but they will have to continue distancing if these reports prove true. There isn't a way of distancing people in the dining-car. For a variety of reasons I think the dining-car is finished. New trains are going to be needed. This will be the time to redesign sleepers to include en suite bathrooms. The old Roomettes accommodated one, not two people, and at least had a toilet and sink. Current Roomettes are far too small for two. It's an unacceptable design. It would be a mistake to repeat it, especially with the likelihood of a virus that lasts for many years in one form or another.


I wouldn't hate it if they re-used the roomette design if they got new cars. I would like it to be updated though, probably making it longer. Replacing the closet with shelves. More power outlets. A little higher or more square car so the bunk will be more like the current viewliner one, etc. But the roomettes are still comfortable, and are a great use of space. And Amtrak is still public transportation. A roomette, I believe, is fine for that.


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## Bob Dylan

20th Century Rider said:


> Mask wearing is here to stay... that is... double masking is here to stay... even after you get the vaccine.
> 
> No... it's not my personal opinion... it's what the doctors are telling us to do!
> 
> Reality is not only a pleasant topic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I've had my Covid-19 vaccine -- now what can I safely do? Your questions answered | CNN
> 
> 
> If you're one of the lucky ones to get your Covid-19 vaccine shots, what's next? When can you take off your mask, eat inside a restaurant, travel, go to sporting events and concerts and visit friends and family? Experts give their advice.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Double masking for Covid-19 protection: A trend with a purpose | CNN
> 
> 
> Some public health officials are suggesting double masking as a way to add protection from the deadly coronavirus and its multiple, more contagious variants.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


Mask wearing is also good for those places that have lots of Air Polution, of which we still have far too many!


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## 20th Century Rider

Looking forward to stepping off the Texas Eagle in Austin for a fantastic coming together with you... a wonderful friend through this blog... the air in your town is certainly clear and clean and welcoming of a celebration of friendship. 

I may have this wrong... you'll let me know!!!!


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## McIntyre2K7

Don’t know if this has been posted but the House transportation committee has proposed 30 billion for transit with 1.5 billion ear-marked for Amtrak.

It would require LD trains to return to daily service and for Amtrak to being back employees who were furloughed.


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## Cal

McIntyre2K7 said:


> Don’t know if this has been posted but the House transportation committee has proposed 30 billion for transit with 1.5 billion ear-marked for Amtrak.
> 
> It would require LD trains to return to daily service and for Amtrak to being back employees who were furloughed.



I wish Amtrak could get more...


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## Michigan Mom

People need to think about how germs are spread. It's amazing that it took a modern day pandemic for people to wash their hands! Fingers, noses, surfaces, air transmission. If you're sick stay home. If you're the boss make it possible for your employees to stay home, quit obsessing about who might try to game the system. Greed should not take priority over public health. Government needs to set standards, businesses should enforce the standards and customers will gladly return.


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## HenryK

Here's another vote for double masking (or N95/KN95 masking if readily available). A week ago I had my second Pfizer jab (with a rather marked reaction) but have no plans to travel, eat at restaurants, or go to venues of multiple people, or even visit my family indoors. There are just too many uninformed or recalcitrant people out there who go unmasked—and who may be carrying one of the less pleasant mutations of the virus.


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## gwolfdog

jis said:


> There are now high quality filter masks with forced air delivery using a small LiIon battery (chargeable using any standard USB-C connector equipped charger) driven electric feeder available in the market to address the sort of problem you have. So all hope is not lost.


 I have a beard. A friend told me that the particles could sneak under the Mask. Any opinions, here? Triple mask, shave, a Divers Helmet, move to Taiwan?


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## TrackWalker

gwolfdog said:


> I have a beard. A friend told me that the particles could sneak under the Mask. Any opinions, here? Triple mask, shave, a Divers Helmet, move to Taiwan?



I used to wear a beard at work for years. At some point it was decided we needed to have respirator fittings once a year.

At first I shaved yearly for these fittings. After few years of this I trimmed just enough to clear the mask seals. (with some touch up the first time on the day of the fitting until I got it just right.)

This allowed me to pass and I've worn a goatee ever since.

My point is for a good mask fit cut the beard to a point where there will be a good seal around the mask with no hair showing and the mask perimeter firmly against the skin.


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## jis

Or get a whole head helmet respirator. They are mighty expensive though  and people will probably look strangely at you, except in Halloween parties. 

For example









RS-1 Transparent Mask


The Next Generations of Transparent Masks




vinta.co


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## 20th Century Rider

Michigan Mom said:


> People need to think about how germs are spread. It's amazing that it took a modern day pandemic for people to wash their hands! Fingers, noses, surfaces, air transmission. If you're sick stay home. If you're the boss make it possible for your employees to stay home, quit obsessing about who might try to game the system. Greed should not take priority over public health. Government needs to set standards, businesses should enforce the standards and customers will gladly return.


Your message is right on point!


----------



## AmtrakBlue

TrackWalker said:


> I used to wear a beard at work for years. At some point it was decided we needed to have respirator fittings once a year.
> 
> At first I shaved yearly for these fittings. After few years of this I trimmed just enough to clear the mask seals. (with some touch up the first time on the day of the fitting until I got it just right.)
> 
> This allowed me to pass and I've worn a goatee ever since.
> 
> My point is for a good mask fit cut the beard to a point where there will be a good seal around the mask with no hair showing and the mask perimeter firmly against the skin.


Wow, never knew there were so many types/names for facial hair. (I have peach fuzz.  )


----------



## 20th Century Rider

McIntyre2K7 said:


> Don’t know if this has been posted but the House transportation committee has proposed 30 billion for transit with 1.5 billion ear-marked for Amtrak.
> 
> It would require LD trains to return to daily service and for Amtrak to being back employees who were furloughed.




Not good... Amtrak needs 4.9 billion for sustainability. This seems like a rerun from before... the government is saying to do more, do it better, and do it for less. Meh! 









Amtrak 2021 Infrastructure Plan Hinges on $4.9B Funding Request


CEO said if the railroad doesn't get the requested federal funds, it will have to make further cuts in rail service and its workforce.




www.enr.com


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## 20th Century Rider

jis said:


> Or get a whole head helmet respirator. They are mighty expensive though  and people will probably look strangely at you, except in Halloween parties.



If everything else fails, just shave.

And if it comes down to making temporary sacrifices and adjustments it takes all of us to care enough!


----------



## jis

20th Century Rider said:


> Not good... Amtrak needs 4.9 billion for sustainability. This seems like a rerun from before... the government is saying to do more, do it better, and do it for less. Meh!


This is an emergency appropriation to get Amtrak (and the nation) over the immediate issues, and not a long term development plan funding. The next opportunity for negotiating that will come up in the FY22 Appropriation Process later this year.


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## 20th Century Rider

jis said:


> This is an emergency appropriation to get Amtrak (and the nation) over the immediate issues, and not a long term development plan funding. The next opportunity for negotiating that will come up in the FY22 Appropriation Process later this year.



Wondering if they can afford to go back to daily service with skeleton funding???









Amtrak Requests $2.34 Billion in FY21 Appropriations







www.enotrans.org


----------



## jis

CEO Flynn has explicitly asked for $1.5 Billion to restore full service by July. This is the exact amount that has been included in the Draft Bill. If anyone here wants to second guess the CEO maybe they should send a missive to the CEO and argue with him


----------



## 20th Century Rider

jis said:


> CEO Flynn has explicitly asked for $1.5 Billion to restore full service by July. This is the exact amount that has been included in the Draft Bill. If anyone here wants second guess the CEO maybe they should send a missive to him and argue with him


Yes he did... as 'additional funding' to help restore service. 

"Amtrak requires additional COVID relief funding to sustain and restore operations and recall employees through the remainder of FY21 and into FY22 and beyond. In the coming weeks, we are requesting $1.541 billion in FY21 and will outline our FY22 needs in our annual Legislative and Grant Request."

With the positives from the Biden administration my intuitive instinct is Amtrak will come out of the COVID crisis ok. We shall see what happens... no one is sending missives or arguments to Flynn that I know of. 

Below is a PDF of his January 22, 2021 letter to Congress...


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## PaTrainFan

While I am pleased to see such potential support for a full return of service, until the public's confidence is restored and many restrictons are listed, how much sense is there to throw money at this if people do not ride? I sincerely hope by summer the desire to travel will return but I am skeptical and believewe are talking fall, at the earliest.


----------



## flitcraft

gwolfdog said:


> I have a beard. A friend told me that the particles could sneak under the Mask. Any opinions, here? Triple mask, shave, a Divers Helmet, move to Taiwan?


 If you really are looking for solutions, there are 'beard friendly' masks out there, that come down further over the chin and have adjustable ear loops to tighten them down. Tom Bihn, a company in Seattle, makes them--their Version 6 is recommended for bearded guys (except maybe the ZZ Top crowd). They aren't cheap but they're locally made by workers that are paid a living wage. I've used all of their versions, I think, and like the flannel ones best for winter wear. Oh, and they have a built in neck lanyard so you can easily put the mask on around your neck before you need it--like driving--and then easily slip it on when you do. I don't know if there are restrictions on links to companies here, but google Tom Bihn and you'll find it. I don't have any connections to them, except being a happy customer.


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## flitcraft

c


bratkinson said:


> And in my case, having sinusitus and moderate emphysema, and taking a medication that has side effects that mimic allergies (especially sinus congestion and sneezing), whenever I put a mask on, I'm good for maybe 5-10 minutes before I realize that I am being starved of oxygen, eg, hypoxia, light headedness and all. I have no choice but to remove my mask for a minute or so to catch my breath, as it were. Double masking? Would literally end up on my dead body, in my opinion.


Actually, medical experts recommend that patients with lung problems wear masks. Importance of Patients with Chronic Lung Disease Wearing Facial Coverings

People with severe lung issues who believe that masks are impeding their oxygen intake should buy and use a pulse oximeter to measure their oxygen level. (You can order them online.) Most who try this discover that they actually are getting enough oxygen, but in those rare cases where they aren't, they can consult with their doctors and show the doctor their blood oxygen levels while masked and get medical advice on that basis.

People with severe lung issues are also recommended to take maximum caution to avoid getting COVID, where they are at extreme risk for fatal complications. That means staying inside and away from others, using delivery services rather than in-person shopping, having friends or neighbors do necessary errands, and postponing unnecessary ones, etc. Stay safe out there!


----------



## 20th Century Rider

PaTrainFan said:


> While I am pleased to see such potential support for a full return of service, until the public's confidence is restored and many restrictons are listed, how much sense is there to throw money at this if people do not ride? I sincerely hope by summer the desire to travel will return but I am skeptical and believewe are talking fall, at the earliest.


Just imagine how difficult this is for restaurants, airlines, Walt Disney World, cruise lines, hotels, and all other businesses that rely on person to person services. Amtrak like others is trying to walk the tight rope and keep in balance. To be sure there is pent up demand... it's just a matter of pushing down that bell curve and getting what appears to be an 'endemic pandemic' under control. 

Folks are tired of sitting home and we still have a way to go. The Amtrak folks and our government continue to struggle as slowly but surely the vaccines become available. Only time will tell!

Egads! I can't even find a prediction timetable for COVID.


----------



## MARC Rider

Barb Stout said:


> 2) I haven't gotten any kind of infectious illness this year. Along the same lines



Oh yeah, same for me. Every spring and every fall, I used to come down with some 24-48 hour crud. Sometimes I'd get nailed in the winter, too. This past year, I seem to have missed out on that particular experience.

There is definitely something to be said for social distancing.


----------



## MARC Rider

Devil's Advocate said:


> I can only go by what people tell us they want and what Amtrak does with limited funds. Apparently the in-room toilet is not as big of a deal as previously assumed. That said, if you have evidence that most of the general public needs in-room toilets and that improved ventilation and cleaning would be insufficient to keep them safe then post it here.
> 
> 
> What standards and which hotels are you talking about? Over the last few decades I've visited around 70 brands across hundreds of locations but I have not seen the "million times better" improvement you have.



I've been staying at hotels since the 1970s (and earlier, when traveling with my parents.) In nearly every place, in every price-point where I've stayed, the bathrooms were as good as they are today. That is, all hotels in the US that I have stayed in, the bathrooms were en-suite, they were clean, and the sanitary plumbing worked fine. (OK, one place in Watkins Glen NY where we stayed had a water main break, not the hotel's fault, and the toilets wouldn't work, but we were leaving that morning anyway.) I had two experiences where there wasn't hot water in the shower. I stayed in a place in London, UK with a shared bath and toilets. While not as convenient, these were well maintained and perfectly clean, and standing in line in the morning to take a shower was a pleasant social activity.

With regard to Amtrak, while I have seen some incredibly clean restrooms in coach on overnight trips (a ride on the Silver Star in 2012 comes to mind), they really have a problem keeping those public restrooms clean on long trips with high load factors. I particularly remember (and not fondly) a ride on the Vermonter, which was standing room only between White River Junction and New Haven, and still pretty crowded all the way into New York. After we left New York, the odor from the restroom wafted to our seats at practically the other end of the car. However, in the sleepers, I've never had any problems with foul restrooms, even the upper-level ones in the Superliners. I also have no problem with the in-roomette toilet in the Viewliner I's if I'm traveling by myself. I always sleep in the upper bunk, anyway, and it's kind of convenient to just climb down and deal with a call of nature, instead of having to get dressed to go down the hall. On the other hand, if I'm sharing the roomette, it's a pain, I either have to shoo my partner into the hall while I do my thing, or head down to the coaches. I balance, I'll be looking forward to having a puplic restroom in the sleepers the next time I ride a Viewliner 2 sleeper. The one time I rode in a bedroom, I was fine with the en-suite shower-toilet combo, though you have to be careful to make sure it drains completely inside the bathroom, and you need to keep the cover over the toilet paper roll completely closed when you take a shower. In any event, I don't think that any of these options are particularly risky in terms of transmitting respiratory viruses. However, it would be helpful if Amtrak pair more consistent attention of en-route cleaning of all toilets.


----------



## MARC Rider

flitcraft said:


> People with severe lung issues who believe that masks are impeding their oxygen intake should buy and use a pulse oximeter to measure their oxygen level. (You can order them online.) Most who try this discover that they actually are getting enough oxygen, but in those rare cases where they aren't, they can consult with their doctors and show the doctor their blood oxygen levels while masked and get medical advice on that basis.



Yeah, but what do you do if the pulse oximeter says your blood oxygen is fine, but you still feel like you're suffocating?


----------



## TrackWalker

MARC Rider said:


> Yeah, but what do you do if the pulse oximeter says your blood oxygen is fine, but you still feel like you're suffocating?



I'm no expert but I would say, "Talk to your doctor."


----------



## MARC Rider

Bob Dylan said:


> Mask wearing is also good for those places that have lots of Air Polution, of which we still have far too many!


Absolutely. Some of the masks I've ordered come with a little pocket for an extra filter layer and a PM 2.5 filter. They were all made in China, and funny how it is that the Chinese have a lot of PM 2.5 filters in stock and ready to sell.  When I got sent to Beijing, we were warned about the legendary Beijing smog, and I was a little disappointed that we didn't get any, just one Code Red PM 2.5 day that wasn't any different from a smoggy day in any American big city. You could even see across the street. (Of course, my lungs weren't disappointed about missing out on the smog.)


----------



## MARC Rider

Michigan Mom said:


> If you're the boss make it possible for your employees to stay home, quit obsessing about who might try to game the system. Greed should not take priority over public health.


The easiest way for companies to have their workers avoid gaming the sick leave system is to allow the employees to keep accumulated sick leave from year to year without limit. If unused sick leave has a value to the employee, then they'll be less likely to use it as some sort of additional vacation time. In my case, the accumulated unused sick leave had 2 benefits for me: (1) it served as a very nice short-term disability policy (that I never needed) that is free of the usual insurance-company red tape, and (2) when I retired, it counted as credit for service, which jacked up my annuity a little bit. Despite that, I never felt any pressure not to use sick leave if I was actually sick.


----------



## Bob Dylan

MARC Rider said:


> The easiest way for companies to have their workers avoid gaming the sick leave system is to allow the employees to keep accumulated sick leave from year to year without limit. If unused sick leave has a value to the employee, then they'll be less likely to use it as some sort of additional vacation time. In my case, the accumulated unused sick leave had 2 benefits for me: (1) it served as a very nice short-term disability policy (that I never needed) that is free of the usual insurance-company red tape, and (2) when I retired, it counted as credit for service, which jacked up my annuity a little bit. Despite that, I never felt any pressure not to use sick leave if I was actually sick.


Should be that way everywhere!


----------



## flitcraft

MARC Rider said:


> When I got sent to Beijing, we were warned about the legendary Beijing smog, and I was a little disappointed that we didn't get any, just one Code Red PM 2.5 day that wasn't any different from a smoggy day in any American big city. You could even see across the street. (Of course, my lungs weren't disappointed about missing out on the smog.)


 Believe it or not, the smog there has actually gotten better in the past few years. Back in the early 90's, I spent six weeks in Beijing without seeing a single 'blue sky day.' Still, particularly in the colder months, the air is of abusive quality. When I left China fall of 2019, I left my supply of masks with a student, knowing they'd be needed later on. Little did I realize that the person who was going to need masks later on would be me!


----------



## Ferroequinologist

MARC Rider said:


> I've been staying at hotels since the 1970s (and earlier, when traveling with my parents.) In nearly every place, in every price-point where I've stayed, the bathrooms were as good as they are today. That is, all hotels in the US that I have stayed in, the bathrooms were en-suite, they were clean, and the sanitary plumbing worked fine. (OK, one place in Watkins Glen NY where we stayed had a water main break, not the hotel's fault, and the toilets wouldn't work, but we were leaving that morning anyway.) I had two experiences where there wasn't hot water in the shower. I stayed in a place in London, UK with a shared bath and toilets. While not as convenient, these were well maintained and perfectly clean, and standing in line in the morning to take a shower was a pleasant social activity.
> 
> With regard to Amtrak, while I have seen some incredibly clean restrooms in coach on overnight trips (a ride on the Silver Star in 2012 comes to mind), they really have a problem keeping those public restrooms clean on long trips with high load factors. I particularly remember (and not fondly) a ride on the Vermonter, which was standing room only between White River Junction and New Haven, and still pretty crowded all the way into New York. After we left New York, the odor from the restroom wafted to our seats at practically the other end of the car. However, in the sleepers, I've never had any problems with foul restrooms, even the upper-level ones in the Superliners. I also have no problem with the in-roomette toilet in the Viewliner I's if I'm traveling by myself. I always sleep in the upper bunk, anyway, and it's kind of convenient to just climb down and deal with a call of nature, instead of having to get dressed to go down the hall. On the other hand, if I'm sharing the roomette, it's a pain, I either have to shoo my partner into the hall while I do my thing, or head down to the coaches. I balance, I'll be looking forward to having a puplic restroom in the sleepers the next time I ride a Viewliner 2 sleeper. The one time I rode in a bedroom, I was fine with the en-suite shower-toilet combo, though you have to be careful to make sure it drains completely inside the bathroom, and you need to keep the cover over the toilet paper roll completely closed when you take a shower. In any event, I don't think that any of these options are particularly risky in terms of transmitting respiratory viruses. However, it would be helpful if Amtrak pair more consistent attention of en-route cleaning of all toilets.



If Covid is transmitted in the air, how can a tiny public toilet be safe? If a Covid + passenger has used the toilet doesn't the virus linger, trapped in that tiny space?


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## AmtrakBlue

Ferroequinologist said:


> If Covid is transmitted in the air, how can a tiny public toilet be safe? If a Covid + passenger has used the toilet doesn't the virus linger, trapped in that tiny space?


If the person wore a face mask, as mandated, the virus should only be on his mask (at least enough that what did escape is not enough to sicken someone else). And if you're wearing your mask, even less chance you get the virus.


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## Exvalley

AmtrakBlue said:


> If the person wore a face mask, as mandated...


In the privacy of a restroom, that's a big "if".


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## MARC Rider

Ferroequinologist said:


> If Covid is transmitted in the air, how can a tiny public toilet be safe? If a Covid + passenger has used the toilet doesn't the virus linger, trapped in that tiny space?


This is getting a little obsessive. First, even with the pandemic, the vast majority of people aren't infectious. There's a finite number of people per trip who use a particular restroom. Most of those who do aren't going to be both infectious and not wearing a mask. And even if they are infectious and not wearing a mask, their exhalations will eventually dissipate -- the restrooms, however tiny, are ventilated, and being tiny make the exchange of air faster. And if you're wearing a mask, this further reduces the number of virus particles that can enter you, further reducing the risk. Of course there's some risk, but not so much that I would worry about catching Covid 19 in a restroom while wearing a mask.


----------



## jis

Yeah. I would not worry about it any more than I do in any restroom anywhere, specially if I am wearing an N95/KN95/FN95 mask, and even more so if I am vaccinated with a high grade vaccine. Of course people who want to irrationally worry will continue to do so no matter what. But that will never justify significantly changing the provision of toilet services in public places, unless the overall risk profile of COVID changes very significantly because of extraneous factors. But we can cross that bridge when we come to that river.


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## Ziv

I don't know about everyone out there, but taking off a mask in a toilet is not one of the most pleasant actions a person can do... One of the upsides of a mask is that they screen out a lot of unpleasant odors.
My gut on this is that using a shared restroom on an LD train is not the safest thing you can do, but it is a lot safer than riding a subway with a higher turnover of people. But that is just my take on it.
;-)



Exvalley said:


> In the privacy of a restroom, that's a big "if".


----------



## Barb Stout

AmtrakBlue said:


> If the person wore a face mask, as mandated, the virus should only be on his mask (at least enough that what did escape is not enough to sicken someone else). And if you're wearing your mask, even less chance you get the virus.


And wearing a mask in the loo helps cut down on bad odors also.


----------



## 20th Century Rider

MARC Rider said:


> This is getting a little obsessive. First, even with the pandemic, the vast majority of people aren't infectious. There's a finite number of people per trip who use a particular restroom. Most of those who do aren't going to be both infectious and not wearing a mask. And even if they are infectious and not wearing a mask, their exhalations will eventually dissipate -- the restrooms, however tiny, are ventilated, and being tiny make the exchange of air faster. And if you're wearing a mask, this further reduces the number of virus particles that can enter you, further reducing the risk. Of course there's some risk, but not so much that I would worry about catching Covid 19 in a restroom while wearing a mask.



What I find upsetting in a really big way is the 'dangling of the carrot' by health providers who pop on my screen with 'We have big news regarding vaccines!' Then you must read forever to find out when and where they will be available... then you get to a small blue box that says 'click here for location and place of shots.' 

So you click.

Then it says... 'sorry, we have no information for your area at this time.'

So it depends on where one lives and local and state governments controlling how much comes to the state and where it is to be distributed.

Meanwhile a really really do fear this thing... and read about folks dying in my small town who never thought they'd get it.

I am not obsessive enough as more and more people in my immediate area are catching COVID 19 and dying.


----------



## Jean

I have seen medical advice in Australia, given by a Professor of Epidemiology, that Covid particles are excreted by humans, making sharing toilets a risk. This would be in addition to any virus particles left in a shared restroom, just by someone breathing. Who can tell if the previous occupant didn’t pull down their mask for a short break because they feel it inhibits breathing or fogs up their glasses. 
Not sure if this happens in the US, but one strategy in Australia is to check for Covid particles in sewerage plants. So obviously it is excreted. When such traces are found, warnings for the areas covered by the affected sewerage plant are announced in the media and extra testing conducted.
We have also just been made aware of another way to become infected. There is a current small (13 cases so far) outbreak in Melbourne, where the source was a nebuliser in a quarantine hotel. It was against the rules, but it still happened. Super fine particles from an infected person were pumped out by the nebuliser and drifted into the corridor, infecting staff, who passed it on etc. With the new strains, it doesn’t take much to catch it.


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## Devil's Advocate

Jean said:


> I have seen medical advice in Australia, given by a Professor of Epidemiology, that Covid particles are excreted by humans, making sharing toilets a risk.


So what is the infection vector in this scenario? I've yet to see any evidence Covid can be absorbed through the skin. 



Jean said:


> This would be in addition to any virus particles left in a shared restroom, just by someone breathing. Who can tell if the previous occupant didn’t pull down their mask for a short break because they feel it inhibits breathing or fogs up their glasses.


I think the key is to improve ventilation and filtration. Shared bathrooms come with a risk but technically sleeping compartments are also shared with no way to know what the prior occupant was up to.


----------



## Jean

The infection vector? A person uses the toilet, then because Covid virus particles are excreted, some are in the air, ready to be breathed in by the next occupant/s, depending on how long they hang around. This process is encouraged by flushing, sending even more particles into the air. IIRC the Professor recommended closing the toilet lid before flushing to minimise risk. The particles must also fall on surfaces and could be transferred to eyes, noses etc without thinking. This must happen even if the previous occupant is wearing an effective mask, or two.
Obviously all shared toilets and other smaller spaces are a risk, not just train ones. And wearing a mask must help, but some masks are not so effective as others.
I guess everyone has to weigh the risk and make their own decision. Some have to travel for work, no choice there.


----------



## 20th Century Rider

Jean said:


> The infection vector? A person uses the toilet, then because Covid virus particles are excreted, some are in the air, ready to be breathed in by the next occupant/s, depending on how long they hang around. This process is encouraged by flushing, sending even more particles into the air. IIRC the Professor recommended closing the toilet lid before flushing to minimise risk. The particles must also fall on surfaces and could be transferred to eyes, noses etc without thinking. This must happen even if the previous occupant is wearing an effective mask, or two.
> Obviously all shared toilets and other smaller spaces are a risk, not just train ones. And wearing a mask must help, but some masks are not so effective as others.
> I guess everyone has to weigh the risk and make their own decision. Some have to travel for work, no choice there.



The Blue Mountains in Australia are one of the most beautiful places on earth. I visited there once when younger and a blue moon ago. Just a dream in the past now...

As for the COVID virus... that it found it's way there cements it as a world tragedy. 

Yup... you be careful of those public toilets... anywhere in the world you may be!

The Blue Mountains make a statement about the majesty of Australia... glad I was able to visit there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Ferroequinologist

The Australian study supports my belief that tiny toilets on trains trap germs. Years ago I got the flu after a trip from NYC to Albuquerque. I am convinced that it came from the Superliner toilets. They are tiny rooms. It's impossible to avoid touching surfaces. If a conventional virus can be spread that way, it seems logical that Covid can spread under the same conditions. And how often are toilets sanitized? A Roomette or Bedroom should be safer if you start at an endpoint. Presumably they've been sanitized but boarding along the line is different. What protocols do attendants follow? Are single use gloves used each time a room is cleaned?


----------



## lordsigma

I’m not sure the need for the gloom and doom of the opening post. Covid is going to result in some permanent societal changes but the majority of people aren’t just going to be content to essentially quarantine for the rest of their lives - I haven’t in months - I got Covid for making a poor decision in going to a Christmas Eve gathering I should have avoided that was outside my normal social bubble- but other than that for months I continued my life - eating out and socializing though mainly restricting it to the non high risk family members I live near see regularly and a certain “social bubble” of friends (mostly friends from work that I see anyway at work) and have traveled a number of times. I avoided infection by maintaining that bubble and one of the few times I stepped out of it I got infected. 

Things will start to come back especially as vaccination results in less hospitalization and death and this becomes more like the flu. Some of us who are most afraid and other more introverted folks who are content to work remotely and live an at home minimalist life will, but most of us will start to venture out a little more - probably a bit more selective about who we see or who we will travel or socialize with. Hopefully enough will in due time to keep things like travel and tourism sustainable.


----------



## Qapla

Virus may never go away but could change into mild annoyance


----------



## west point

Vaccination rates are one item that is going to determine how travel will happen. IMO once most persons that want to be vaccinated then there may be a great demand for the general public to travel by whatever means available. It may be airlines will not be able to ramp up capacity quickly. This may be an opportunity and result for Amtrak to be overwhelmed with demand. 

I have no idea when that will happen as there is still too many different out comes of Covid=19 but really believe it will happen sooner or later.. Variants are just one problem.


----------



## Hytec

Fellow AU members, what I'm about post will disturb many, if not most, but I will post it anyway. I am a pragmatist, a subscriber to Darwin's theory of survival. COVID-19 is one more attempt by nature to cull our species of their various mutations that are, or should be incapable of surviving in the long term. 

Our medical infrastructure, more importantly our culture cannot handle disease threats emotionally. Our culture has evolved to believe that not only every human life, but every life is precious, trees, grass, even cockroaches. They are not. Everything mutates. Thee and me included. Some mutations are successful, some are not. That's how nature works.

Folks, we have got stop trying to believe that everybody, everything must live forever. We humans are not stronger than nature. II I succumb to a virus or bacterium that I contracted in a coach seat, roomette, bedroom, or toilet, I'm comfortable with that. If I die as a result, I'll be pissed. But that's my opinion. LOL

I intend to continue to travel with Amtrak, because it's better than the alternatives, regardless of what the "experts" in DC decide...AMEN!


----------



## joelkfla

Hytec said:


> II I succumb to a virus or bacterium that I contracted in a coach seat, roomette, bedroom, or toilet, I'm comfortable with that. If I die as a result, I'll be pissed.


Not for long.


----------



## Ferroequinologist

Hytec said:


> Fellow AU members, what I'm about post will disturb many, if not most, but I will post it anyway. I am a pragmatist, a subscriber to Darwin's theory of survival. COVID-19 is one more attempt by nature to cull our species of their various mutations that are, or should be incapable of surviving in the long term.
> 
> Our medical infrastructure, more importantly our culture cannot handle disease threats emotionally. Our culture has evolved to believe that not only every human life, but every life is precious, trees, grass, even cockroaches. They are not. Everything mutates. Thee and me included. Some mutations are successful, some are not. That's how nature works.
> 
> Folks, we have got stop trying to believe that everybody, everything must live forever. We humans are not stronger than nature. II I succumb to a virus or bacterium that I contracted in a coach seat, roomette, bedroom, or toilet, I'm comfortable with that. If I die as a result, I'll be pissed. But that's my opinion. LOL
> 
> I intend to continue to travel with Amtrak, because it's better than the alternatives, regardless of what the "experts" in DC decide...AMEN!



All human life IS precious but that doesn't mean that we should live forever. We don't want our lives cut short however.


----------



## Ferroequinologist

I'll repeat what the a nurse in my doctor's office told me the other day "People are getting the vaccine because they are desperate to get their old lives back - but they won't". What she went on to explain is that masks are going to continue indefinitely and that social distancing and other safety measures are here to stay. I've been reaading that there is now a theory that those who have been vaccinated could still transmit the virus even a month or more after receiving the vaccine. That means that the vaccinated must go on with the masks. So will there be no relief - ever? This article reports on how the virus lingers on fabrics for three days. Just how safe is an Amtrak sleeping-car compartment if this is the case? Alarming COVID-19 study finds virus survives on fabric for 3 days


----------



## Devil's Advocate

Ferroequinologist said:


> I'll repeat what the a nurse in my doctor's office told me the other day "People are getting the vaccine because they are desperate to get their old lives back - but they won't." What she went on to explain is that masks are going to continue indefinitely and that social distancing and other safety measures are here to stay.


I plan to get the vaccine and wear a mask until I reach the 95% range of immunity, which I believe is a week or two after the second dose. After that I've done what I'm willing to do and getting back to my regular life. If I need a booster in six months or whatever I'll do that too, but I can't control the anti-vaxxer nuts and won't keep living like this forever.



Ferroequinologist said:


> This article reports on how the virus lingers on fabrics for three days. Just how safe is an Amtrak sleeping-car compartment if this is the case? Alarming COVID-19 study finds virus survives on fabric for 3 days


You don't absorb COVID through your skin so how does the virus get from the fabric to your lungs?


----------



## flitcraft

I wouldn't rely on the New York Post for your science news, myself.  They specialize in 'alarming' as a business model. But even the version of the study in the Post says that the biggest problem is cotton fabrics. Guess which fabric is extraordinarily unlikely to find in an Amtrak sleeping-car? Hint: it stains badly and is not at all abrasion resistant...


----------



## Mailliw

Devil's Advocate said:


> I plan to get the vaccine and wear a mask until I reach the 95% range of immunity, which I believe is a week or two after the second dose. After that I've done what I'm willing to do and getting back to my regular life. If I need a booster in six months or whatever I'll do that too, but I can't control the anti-vaxxer nuts and won't keep living like this forever.
> 
> 
> You don't absorb COVID through your skin so how does the virus get from the fabric to your lungs?


I think I'm more ir less on the same page with you. I mean I'll still wear a mask when required, but I'm comfortable with the risk.


----------



## caravanman

Devil's Advocate said:


> You don't absorb COVID through your skin so how does the virus get from the fabric to your lungs?


I think the path is via your hands/face/nose/eyes after you touch a virus contaminated item.


----------



## Ferroequinologist

flitcraft said:


> I wouldn't rely on the New York Post for your science news, myself.  They specialize in 'alarming' as a business model. But even the version of the study in the Post says that the biggest problem is cotton fabrics. Guess which fabric is extraordinarily unlikely to find in an Amtrak sleeping-car? Hint: it stains badly and is not at all abrasion resistant...



The Post quotes a study. The Post did not conduct the study.


----------



## Ferroequinologist

Devil's Advocate said:


> I plan to get the vaccine and wear a mask until I reach the 95% range of immunity, which I believe is a week or two after the second dose. After that I've done what I'm willing to do and getting back to my regular life. If I need a booster in six months or whatever I'll do that too, but I can't control the anti-vaxxer nuts and won't keep living like this forever.
> 
> 
> You don't absorb COVID through your skin so how does the virus get from the fabric to your lungs?



Will you be ALLOWED to not wear a mask? Maybe in Florida but not likely in places like New York and California.


----------



## Devil's Advocate

caravanman said:


> I think the path is via your hands/face/nose/eyes after you touch a virus contaminated item.


I've yet to see anything that indicates secondary surface contact is a major infection vector for C19. That's not to say it cannot happen but washing or sanitizing your hands should be enough to prevent it.



Ferroequinologist said:


> Will you be ALLOWED to not wear a mask? Maybe in Florida but not likely in places like New York and California.


If enough of us get vaccinated we should be able to get rid of the masks. If you hate wearing masks push for more vaccinations.


----------



## flitcraft

Ferroequinologist said:


> The Post quotes a study. The Post did not conduct the study.


 Nor, unlike most reputable newspapers, did they provide a link to the study or even the name of the journal it is in, so that we can judge for ourselves its relevance, or if it has been peer reviewed. The New York Post is a tabloid-style publication. Again, not where I'd choose to get my science news from. YMMV, of course. 

And, the point stands--Amtrak bedrooms aren't upholstered in cotton cloth. So worry about your t-shirts if you're out and about with unmasked people. Amtrak bedrooms--not so much.


----------



## jis

It’s NY Post. Personally I’d just ignore it and read the actual studies in reputable scientific journals.


----------



## MARC Rider

Even after I get vaccinated, I will continue to wear a mask when I'm around other people. Even before Covid, in Asia lots of mask-wearing all the time by people. Some of this might have been because of particulate pollution, as, curiously, the Chinese cloth masks I've bought all seem to come with PM2.5 inserts. However, they might be on to something, as I believe that most of the Asian countries had less per-capita Covid than we did.

On the other hand, once I'm vaccinated, and the disease rates start going low, I will feel quite comfortable going out and about (wearing a mask in crowded areas), eating indoors in restaurants, traveling, etc. I think there will be some changes in our lives, but maybe not as apocalyptic as some people want to make it out.


----------



## flitcraft

Hytec said:


> Fellow AU members, what I'm about post will disturb many, if not most, but I will post it anyway. I am a pragmatist, a subscriber to Darwin's theory of survival. COVID-19 is one more attempt by nature to cull our species of their various mutations that are, or should be incapable of surviving in the long term.
> 
> Our medical infrastructure, more importantly our culture cannot handle disease threats emotionally. Our culture has evolved to believe that not only every human life, but every life is precious, trees, grass, even cockroaches. They are not. Everything mutates. Thee and me included. Some mutations are successful, some are not. That's how nature works.
> 
> Folks, we have got stop trying to believe that everybody, everything must live forever. We humans are not stronger than nature. II I succumb to a virus or bacterium that I contracted in a coach seat, roomette, bedroom, or toilet, I'm comfortable with that. If I die as a result, I'll be pissed. But that's my opinion. LOL



This is a reply that will also disturb many, if not most. It is link to a short video of what nurses working in ICUs see every day. If you have the guts to do so, watch it, Hytec. I doubt you'd append an LOL to this reality.









Opinion | Death, Through a Nurse’s Eyes (Published 2021)


A short film offering a firsthand perspective of the brutality of the pandemic inside a Covid-19 I.C.U.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## Mailliw

Ferroequinologist said:


> Will you be ALLOWED to not wear a mask? Maybe in Florida but not likely in places like New York and California.


Eventually even the bluest states will succumb to pandemic fatigue, settle on "eh, good enough", and get rid of mask mandates and social distancing.


----------



## caravanman

Mailliw said:


> Eventually even the bluest states will succumb to pandemic fatigue, settle on "eh, good enough", and get rid of mask mandates and social distancing.


Maybe the states run by populist cretins will instead start to understand the science?


----------



## gwolfdog

Hardly any Flu this year, is that a clue to wearing Masks? I've had both shots and will be Double Masking for awhile. No one lives forever but the chore of wearing a Mask, or others looks or opinions, for me is not substantial. People are still dying and getting sick, why not avoid it, as best that you can?


----------



## Ziv

I think you are right about secondary surfaces not being a major contributor to the spread of Covid. From what I have read the main transmission mechanism is through the air and the amount that you breath in, the viral load, is critical (after the amount and type of comorbidities) to the severity of the case. That is why singing in a church or talking animatedly in a bar can be so deadly. Not only do you get the disease but you get a larger viral load and that makes the onset of the disease worse. The good thing is that the viral load appears to dissipate relatively quickly outdoors though not quite as quickly indoors. 
I don't like the speed that the vaccine has been developed in some ways, but the speed will also be a factor that saves tens of thousands of lives so my mixed feeling will take a back seat and I will get the vaccine as soon as my age group is allowed to get it. A couple weeks after my second dose I will only mask up when required to do so and I will start to travel again, or rather, to travel as much as I used to do. I have to admit that I am going to the USVI next week and I haven't even gotten the first shot yet. I am just "sick" of not traveling. I have always traveled a lot so this year has been boring as h#77. But the USVI has mandated that anyone going there has to prove that they have had a negative test in the past 5 days, so my direct flight there will be the safest one I have taken in a year. Not perfectly safe, but safer.



Devil's Advocate said:


> I've yet to see anything that indicates secondary surface contact is a major infection vector for C19. That's not to say it cannot happen but washing or sanitizing your hands should be enough to prevent it.
> 
> 
> If enough of us get vaccinated we should be able to get rid of the masks. If you hate wearing masks push for more vaccinations.


----------



## jiml

gwolfdog said:


> Hardly any Flu this year, is that a clue to wearing Masks?


Excellent point.


----------



## Ryan

caravanman said:


> Maybe the states run by populist cretins will instead start to understand the science?


Sadly, I think there's no danger of that.


----------



## joelkfla

flitcraft said:


> I wouldn't rely on the New York Post for your science news, myself.  They specialize in 'alarming' as a business model. But even the version of the study in the Post says that the biggest problem is cotton fabrics. Guess which fabric is extraordinarily unlikely to find in an Amtrak sleeping-car? Hint: it stains badly and is not at all abrasion resistant...


No, it says polyester is worst, followed by cotton, and then polyester-cotton blend being the least worrisome.

_Between polyester, a poly-cotton blend and 100% cotton fabrics, the polyester posed the greatest risk, even after 72 hours; on full-cotton samples, the virus lasted one day, while the poly-cotton blend remained contaminated by viral droplets — designed to mimic human saliva — for just six hours. _​


----------



## jis

Weren't Cardboard boxes and packing material also supposed to be terribly dangerous for a while? AFAICT fomite driven infection, something that initially was believed to be the primary infection vector, apparently based on not much, is basically an extremely minor to a non-issue, specially for those that keep their hands clean, except for those that want to continue worrying about it.









Hygiene Theater Is a Huge Waste of Time


People are power scrubbing their way to a false sense of security.




www.theatlantic.com





The original paper in Lancet is also worth reading if anyone is into digging deeper into the subject.


----------



## Barb Stout

Ferroequinologist said:


> I'll repeat what the a nurse in my doctor's office told me the other day "People are getting the vaccine because they are desperate to get their old lives back - but they won't". What she went on to explain is that masks are going to continue indefinitely and that social distancing and other safety measures are here to stay. I've been reaading that there is now a theory that those who have been vaccinated could still transmit the virus even a month or more after receiving the vaccine. That means that the vaccinated must go on with the masks. So will there be no relief - ever? This article reports on how the virus lingers on fabrics for three days. Just how safe is an Amtrak sleeping-car compartment if this is the case? Alarming COVID-19 study finds virus survives on fabric for 3 days


With regard to that article, I suspect the authors wrote that in part to get any medical facilities who were not already washing their staff's uniforms to do so instead of allowing them to take them home. When I worked in hospital laboratories, the hospital contracted with professionals that did the laundry not only for hospital linens, but also lab coats. We were not to take them home for washing or any other purpose. I am not sure what other hospital staffers do with their gear such as scrubs, but I would imagine it is similar. Can anyone herein speak to that?


----------



## Ferroequinologist

jiml said:


> Excellent point.


I suspect it has to do with so much being shut down, all the social isolation, extensive hand washing and much better hygiene.


----------



## nti1094

Ferroequinologist said:


> The Post quotes a study. The Post did not conduct the study.


They don’t cite the exact source, and knowing their history, it’s unlikely peer reviewed.


----------



## Bob Dylan

nti1094 said:


> They don’t cite the exact source, and knowing their history, it’s unlikely peer reviewed.


Murdock Media is Infamous for quoting unknown sources, ie Made up, in lots of instances!


----------



## Barb Stout

nti1094 said:


> They don’t cite the exact source, and knowing their history, it’s unlikely peer reviewed.


Near the bottom of the article, it indicates that the study has been submitted to a journal that will have peer review. Also, there is another link in the article that leads to another article with a lot more information.


----------



## nti1094

Bob Dylan said:


> Murdock Media is Infamous for quoting unknown sources, ie Made up, in lots of instances!



Or quoting KGB sources or assets. It really is just trash in terms of journalism. 

A quick search of Pubmed and Academia App finds a lot of papers citing the exact opposite, but nothing definitive because it’s all so “novel!” Certainly worth considering to be careful, because it can’t hurt. 

It seems like this has been going on forever, yet it has really just barely been a year. Less than a year for our lockdown in the USA. It’s mind blowing how deeply society has been affected and the changes this has caused. Not to mention a little terrifying. 

One thing I bring with me on my trips is a UV-C lamp. Not the little useless handheld ones they sell everywhere now, but one that you might find in a hospital room. It certainly cleans any surface you pass over (slowly). But they can be dangerous, I would not recommend without proper UV blocking eye protection, and you cannot leave it running continuously while you occupy the roomette or bedroom because at the 150 to 180 nm wavelength the UV reacts with oxygen to form O3 (Ozone) which is an irritant for humans.


----------



## Ferroequinologist

Bob Dylan said:


> Murdock Media is Infamous for quoting unknown sources, ie Made up, in lots of instances!



I'm sorry the Post is not up to your standards. Is the BBC acceptable to you? Here is a BBC report stating the same as the Post: University study finds Covid survives three days on fabric


----------



## Ferroequinologist

Devil's Advocate said:


> I've yet to see anything that indicates secondary surface contact is a major infection vector for C19. That's not to say it cannot happen but washing or sanitizing your hands should be enough to prevent it.
> 
> 
> If enough of us get vaccinated we should be able to get rid of the masks. If you hate wearing masks push for more vaccinations.



First of all, vaccines are not 100% effective. Second, read this from the Smithsonian:

"Since scientists haven’t yet found evidence that the vaccines provide mucosal immunity, someone who is vaccinated and has no symptoms of illness may be carrying the live SARS-CoV-2 virus and spreading it to others when they cough, breath or sneeze."

Source: Yes, You Should Still Wear a Mask After Covid-19 Vaccination

Remember, these are experimental vaccines that have no more than emergency authorization. There is a lot that we do not yet know however as things stand it looks as though masks are going to be around for a long time no matter how many are vaccinated. 

As for the spread of the virus through fabrics, especially polyester, see the BBC link I posted elsewhere in this thread. 

Scientists do not know if life will ever return to normal. That's the reality our leaders aren't telling us.


----------



## AmtrakBlue

"Since scientists haven’t yet found evidence that the vaccines provide mucosal immunity, someone who is vaccinated and has no symptoms of illness may be carrying the live SARS-CoV-2 virus and spreading it to others when they cough, breath or sneeze."

If I'm gathering with others who have all been vaccinated, like at a home party, I won't feel the need to wear my mask. Even if someone is asymptomatic and gives me the virus, I will most likely not have bad enough symptoms to need to go to the hospital. So, yes, we will not need to wear the mask in as many places as we have to now.


----------



## jis

I am already wearing the mask much less. Only in the CDC specified high risk areas or if required by an establishment. Specifically, in a pod situation where everyone in the pod is vaccinated, I am shedding the mask (if I remember to take it off that is )

Since the mask (specially the newest very light weight KN95s I acquired) does not bother me that much, there are occasions where I forget to take it off too. 

Actually I think quarantines are now a bigger issue for me, now that I am ready to travel, than masks. If masks, tests and vaccines together help remove the need for quarantines, more power to them.

The important thing is that the vaccines substantially reduce the chances of hospitalization and death, close to zero.


----------



## MARC Rider

Even if Covid just becomes a mild infection that doesn't lead to hospitalizations and who wants to be catching it while traveling? I've had enough trip where I've caught a bug in the middle of the trip and had to spend a few annoying days feeling like crud. Given how well the masks and social distancing have stopped the flu in its tracks this year, I think I'll wear my mask much more frequently, even after the covid-danger has passed.


----------



## Barb Stout

MARC Rider said:


> Even if Covid just becomes a mild infection that doesn't lead to hospitalizations and who wants to be catching it while traveling? I've had enough trip where I've caught a bug in the middle of the trip and had to spend a few annoying days feeling like crud. Given how well the masks and social distancing have stopped the flu in its tracks this year, I think I'll wear my mask much more frequently, even after the covid-danger has passed.


The vast majority of times that I have caught some respiratory infection has been while traveling by air. I will no longer feel like a pariah wearing a mask on the plane the next time I fly.


----------



## jis

I found this article to be incredibly sobering in that it gives a very good idea about how many of us with the best of intentions may be mistaken in our beliefs and actions in regard to this pandemic... Something to reflect on. And BTW it does not absolve the "experts" either, of their own sins, something I have been cautioning about since the early days of "fomite madness", "mask not necessary silliness" and "beach shaming". Everybody has made their own set of mistakes, and to err is human. The question is how good is one at reflecting upon self and taking corrective actions.









5 Pandemic Mistakes We Keep Repeating


We can learn from our failures.




www.theatlantic.com





And now we are entering the era of "mutant madness" and can't let "can't let your guard down anywhere parenthood" ... 

Anyway, give it a read and see if it helps in re-establishing a semblance of balance in an admittedly wobbly and wonky world of the day.


----------



## IndyLions

jis said:


> The important thing is that the vaccines substantially reduce the chances of hospitalization and death, close to zero.



I think JIS's point is one which needs to be emphasized more. Covid is not going away - but as long as people get vaccinated - they may catch it but they aren't going to die from it.

During the pandemic - it's our responsibility not only to protect ourselves - but to protect others. That means taking personal precautions that minimize the risk for all. If we fail to take reasonable precautions and pass it to others - that's on us.

However - after vaccinations are fully rolled out that is no longer the case. If you choose to take a pass on the vaccination - and catch Covid from me (even though I've been vaccinated) - that's on you.


----------



## west point

The new Johnson and Johnson vaccine so far has prevented hospitalization and death of any vaccinate person that only got a mild case . The results for the other 2 US appear as good but maybe a few persons since so many more have received at least one dose. ? What is being missed in many state priorities is immune compromised person are more likely to throw off another variant.


----------



## jis

AFAICT all three vaccines with emergency authorization in the US have had zero hospitalization and death attributable to COVID or vaccine in the vaccinated group during the clinical trials. The mRNA vaccines with a single dose are indeed as good as the J&J but they went for a two dose regime because they were not quite sure how long a single dose's efficacy will last.

Turns out the observed results now are better than the worst they had feared. Yet, J&J is spinning up a two dose regime trial because they are not quite sure that the efficacy will last as long as they wish with the single dose.

At least theoretically both Moderna and BionTech (Pfizer) could have chosen to do their clinical trial with a single dose, and then we would have a one dose vaccine from them too. But being the new technology they were being more prudent than J&J with a more established Adenovector platform. They were probably pleasantly surprised with the single dose results and ecstatic with the two dose results.

Interestingly though the other Adenovector vaccines - Oxford (AstraZeneca) and Gemaleya (Sputnik V) have both chosen to stick with two doses, though the Brits and Chileans have decided to do the second dose of AstraZeneca 120 days after the first, instead of 21-28 days after the first while Indians are sticking with the original 21 days with Covishield, which is the Oxford vaccine manufactured in India by Serum Institute of India, Pune. They also delivering it to Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Brazil and a few other places.


----------



## Hytec

jis said:


> AFAICT all three vaccines with emergency authorization in the US have had zero hospitalization and death attributable to COVID or vaccine in the vaccinated group during the clinical trials. The mRNA vaccines with a single dose are indeed as good as the J&J but they went for a two dose regime because they were not quite sure how long a single dose's efficacy will last.
> 
> Turns out the observed results now are better than the worst they had feared. Yet, J&J is spinning up a two dose regime trial because they are not quite sure that the efficacy will last as long as they wish with the single dose.
> 
> At least theoretically both Moderna and BionTech (Pfizer) could have chosen to do their clinical trial with a single dose, and then we would have a one dose vaccine from them too. But being the new technology they were being more prudent than J&J with a more established Adenovector platform. They were probably pleasantly surprised with the single dose results and ecstatic with the two dose results.
> 
> Interestingly though the other Adenovector vaccines - Oxford (AstraZeneca) and Gemaleya (Sputnik V) have both chose to stick with two doses, though the Brits and Chileans have decided to do the second dose of AstraZeneca 120 days after the first, instead of 21-28 days after the first while Indians are sticking with the original 21 days with Covishield, which is the Oxford vaccine manufactured in India by Serum Institute of India, Pune. They also delivering it to Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Brazil and a few other places.


Thank you for a well researched analysis and resultant opinion.


----------



## neroden

jis said:


> AFAICT all three vaccines with emergency authorization in the US have had zero hospitalization and death attributable to COVID or vaccine in the vaccinated group during the clinical trials. The mRNA vaccines with a single dose are indeed as good as the J&J but they went for a two dose regime because they were not quite sure how long a single dose's efficacy will last.
> 
> Turns out the observed results now are better than the worst they had feared. Yet, J&J is spinning up a two dose regime trial because they are not quite sure that the efficacy will last as long as they wish with the single dose.



I'm hoping J&J on two doses is as good as the Moderna and Pfizer are. The reported results are not good enough for me with one dose, though obviously I'd get it if I had to go out for work.

The thing is, I'm not really as scared about hospitalization or death. If I die, I die. I'm more scared about (1) Long Covid and (2) long-term invisible organ damage which has been found at high rates in random samples of "recovered" Covid-19 cases. I have two friends with Long Covid, who officially had "mild" Covid cases in the initial months, but their lives were wrecked for well over a year, and they're now both somewhat crippled permanently. This is what I'm avoiding.

The Moderna & Pfizer vaccines have such super-high efficacy that they are probably preventing both.

The J&J one-dose vaccine? At this point the data is not there to tell me whether it is preventing Long Covid. And they haven't cat-scanned the 30% of patients with "mild" symptoms to see if they had invisible organ damage. Maybe the data will come in later, but it's not there yet.


----------



## Devil's Advocate

Ferroequinologist said:


> "Since scientists haven’t yet found evidence that the vaccines provide mucosal immunity, someone who is vaccinated and has no symptoms of illness may be carrying the live SARS-CoV-2 virus and spreading it to others when they cough, breath or sneeze."


The impact on subclinical transmission is currently unknown (or at least unpublished) but bubbles of vaccinated people should be able to meet in person without masks or fear of serious infection. Obviously there is still some level of risk but so long as news of my death does not read like a Darwin Award candidate I can "live" with the outcome. 



Ferroequinologist said:


> As for the spread of the virus through fabrics, especially polyester, see the BBC link I posted elsewhere in this thread.


All I've seen are statements about about surface viability rather than probable infection from surface contact. To me that's a distinction with a difference. Washing hands and using a neck pillow should be enough to avoid problems. I don't think Amtrak needs a toilet in every compartment but if they did a better job of keeping public toilets clean and ventilated (especially in coach) then more passengers would be inclined to wash up on a regular basis.



Ferroequinologist said:


> Scientists do not know if life will ever return to normal. That's the reality our leaders aren't telling us.


Terms like "normal life" have more to do with social studies than science. Wearing a mask when sick or during cold and flu season has been normal in parts of Asia for many years now. If that became normal here it'd be a good thing.


----------



## Dakota 400

neroden said:


> I'm hoping J&J on two doses is as good as the Moderna and Pfizer are. The reported results are not good enough for me with one dose,



If what I have read about the J&J's vaccine's one dose effectiveness is correct, it's more effective than the annual flu vaccines are.



Devil's Advocate said:


> The impact on subclinical transmission is currently unknown but bubbles of vaccinated people should be able to meet in person without masks or fear of serious infection. Obviously there is still some level of risk but so long as news of my death does not read like a Darwin Award candidate I can "live" with the outcome.



Well said. Most of my friends are of my age and all, as far as I know, are getting appointments to be vaccinated. Maybe my monthly brunch group of former colleagues will return sometime in 2021? (I know our small local restaurant would be most appreciative if it did.)


----------



## Exvalley

caravanman said:


> Maybe the states run by populist cretins will instead start to understand the science?


I don't think that it is as simple as you make it out to be.

Take Florida, for example. Florida has the second oldest population in the United States. And yet their per capita Covid death rate is just about smack dab in the middle at 145 per 100,000. Texas is also in the middle with 153.

Contrast that with one of the most locked-down states in the country, California. California, with its younger population, has a per capita death rate of 134. New York is much higher at 243. The four leading states for per-capita deaths are all blue states. Conversely, the two best performing states are blue states. However, Utah, a red state, is the third best.

We clearly cannot just label a state red or blue and predict how well they will do - which is why I hate wasting time doing that. I am much more interested in the real reasons for the differences.


----------



## jis

Exvalley said:


> We clearly cannot just label a state red or blue and predict how well they will do - which is why I hate wasting time doing that. I am much more interested in the real reasons for the differences.


I agree with you. Part of the problem is that unless you factor in actual practice and other extraneous factors, some not very well known, it is very hard to tell what the net net outcome will be. 

It is true that masks, distancing and not gathering in unventilated spaces helps. But unless one is able to get meaningful data on the proportion of people breaking those norms, and moreover what is the relative amount of breaking of those in a Governor mandated versus a non mandated regimen, it is hard to arrive at a well reasoned conclusion.

And this is completely leaving aside the vexing India question, which nobody seems to have any concrete explanation for.









Why Does the Pandemic Seem to Be Hitting Some Countries Harder Than Others?


While the virus has ravaged rich nations, reported death rates in poorer ones remain relatively low. What probing this epidemiological mystery can tell us about global health.




www.newyorker.com


----------



## Exvalley

jis said:


> And this is completely leaving aside the vexing India question, which nobody seems to have any concrete explanation for.


In my un-scientific opinion, there seems to be a direct correlation between obesity (and associated comorbidities) and the per capita death rate. India and most developing nations have much lower obesity rates than the countries that have been hit the hardest.


----------



## Devil's Advocate

Comparing states by stats alone ignores the lack of standardized independent monitoring and the porosity of domestic borders. It's the same problem with quantifying the effects of domestic gun control. That being said a more credible and productive response is not nearly as confusing and complicated as some make it out to be. Countries like Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, & Thailand wasted less time debating unsubstantiated claims of media hoaxes and global conspiracies while declaring premature victory. Instead they focused on moving quickly and implementing a solution applicable to their situation. Despite some setbacks the difference seems to have paid off handsomely. Not just in the form of reduced death toll but with a faster return to more normal domestic living as well. The US has an economy large enough to weather the storm through domestic spending alone. Unfortunately many Americans seem to hate the idea of accepting personal sacrifice on behalf of the greater good and I'm not sure how to fix that.


----------



## Exvalley

And keep in mind that there is not uniformity within a single party. 
Here is a prime example:








Gov. Cuomo says he won't approve coronavirus 'shelter-in-place' order for New York City after mayor tells residents to prepare


Cuomo said that such drastic policies would create more fear amid the COVID-19 outbreak, which has now infected more than 6,500 people across the U.S. and killed at least 115, according to Johns Hopkins University.




www.cnbc.com


----------



## Jean

Re the idea about obesity - I have seen Vietnam mentioned as an example of this. Apparently it has the world’s lowest obesity rate along with a very low Covid death rate. May well apply to India also. 
I also wonder about testing rates in some countries. Low testing rates may well make for low rates of the incidence of Covid, yet plenty more could have it. I have also read recently that the true incidence of the virus in India may be much higher than official figures and therefore herd immunity is a real possibility.
Simple logic seemed to indicate that the virus would spread more easily where people live close together, eg, big European and US cities etc. Yet this very situation also exists in India, Vietnam and other non-western countries where the percentage of deaths is much smaller. 
Another issue is that necessary restrictions like lockdowns may be more vigorously enforced in some countries. I have some personal knowledge of one small country with a very low death toll. Lockdowns are enforced with armed military in the streets.
I concur with DA that quick action has helped in some places, both in the early days and currently. In Australia and New Zealand even one or two cases may result in immediate lockdowns. This seems to work every time, even if the lockdown only lasts 3-5 days. Plus the virus has never been a political issue.
Clearly, so much more to learn.


----------



## jis

Jean said:


> Another issue is that necessary restrictions like lockdowns may be more vigorously enforced in some countries. I have some personal knowledge of one small country with a very low death toll. Lockdowns are enforced with armed military in the streets.


I am aware of a very large and populous country too


----------



## caravanman

My remarks about "populist politicians" were not meant to divide between red and blue states. 
Surely any leader who says " take off your masks, open all the businesses" while Covid is still a problem, is courting popular votes, and not heeding the science?


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## west point

IMO travel outside the USA will be limited by various travel restrictions by every country. Until the whole world is vaccinated travel restrictions will come and go irregularly. Each country will have hot spots that come and go. We certainly will not travel to any where outside USA until probably 2023. If any variant become able to outwit present vaccines that is a whole another ball game.


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## jis

west point said:


> IMO travel outside the USA will be limited by various travel restrictions by every country. Until the whole world is vaccinated travel restrictions will come and go irregularly. Each country will have hot spots that come and go. We certainly will not travel to any where outside USA until probably 2023. If any variant become able to outwit present vaccines that is a whole another ball game.


Depends on the country involved. US has specific so called "pod" agreements with many countries with clearly specified protocol for travel between the countries. For example with the "pod" agreement that is in place with India it currently support 5 non stop flights between the two countries every day. With testing done according to the specified protocol, you can get away with a quarantine that is as short as 3 or 4 days. It is possible to get visitor visas with adequate reason to travel, but people who do not need a visa, like citizens, permanent residents or OICs in case of US citizens of Indian origin, you can pretty much buy a ticket, get tested and travel, no questions asked. Interstingly, the "pod" agreement applies only to non-stop flights. Any stop or flight change on the way falls outside the agreement and adds an order of magnitude more complexity. That is why traveling by ME3 or E3 to India is more or less completely out for now.

BTW, NY State just announced that starting April 1 all quarantine requirements are being withdrawn for domestic travel to NY State and City. So I guess I can do my trip to Moynihan Train Hall and a few days stay in NY in late April afterall. Something that I had considered and rejected earlier due to the quarantine hassles.


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## Exvalley

jis said:


> BTW, NY State just announced that starting April 1 all quarantine requirements are being withdrawn for domestic travel to NY State and City. So I guess I can do my trip to Moynihan Train Hall and a few days stay in NY in late April afterall. Something that I had considered and rejected earlier due to the quarantine hassles.


Wow! That is huge. There is a decent chance that Connecticut and New Jersey will follow along.

Maybe Cuomo is trying to get people to forget about other "issues."


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