# Future flooding for Empire Builder?



## PetalumaLoco (Mar 15, 2009)

While trying and trying to get on the phone with Amtrak this morning, when I finally got thru a recorded voice said the agents were very busy with an increase in calls due to bad weather. I hadn't heard about any train delays and I still haven't.

So I searched and came across a couple of news items regarding possible future flooding and preparation for it in North Dakota. Seems there's still a lot of snow around, later than normal, and if heavy Spring rains happen they're afraid of flooding. I wonder if people have been canceling and/or rebooking because of this?

Here's a news item about Devils Lake ND possible flooding and Amtrak.

Story here.

And here's a related story 2 days later.

Here's a general FEMA warning.

Let's hope it won't become a major problem, for Amtrak or the population.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 15, 2009)

PetalumaLoco said:


> While trying and trying to get on the phone with Amtrak this morning, when I finally got thru a recorded voice said the agents were very busy with an increase in calls due to bad weather. I hadn't heard about any train delays and I still haven't.
> So I searched and came across a couple of news items regarding possible future flooding and preparation for it in North Dakota. Seems there's still a lot of snow around, later than normal, and if heavy Spring rains happen they're afraid of flooding. I wonder if people have been canceling and/or rebooking because of this?
> 
> Here's a news item about Devils Lake ND possible flooding and Amtrak.
> ...


Last week's storm dumped another 10 inches of snow on Fargo, temporarily closing I-94 for several hundred miles, so that won't help. This story from the AP indicates that they are expecting floods. Matters are helped by the fact that the ground was already saturated by heavy rains when it froze last November, and a January thaw filled many drainage ditches, which promptly refroze. Since the gradients are so small in the Red River Valley, drainage happens slowly.

In any case, though, I would expect a real thaw for several weeks yet, and there could easily be another blizzard or two this month or next.


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## saxman (Mar 15, 2009)

I hope this doesn't effect my Empire Builder trip in a couple days. However, I use to live in ND and the Red River floods just about every year. Last time it got bad in 2006, when I was there, it hardly effected Amtrak at all. But it is true that ND got a a lot more snow than normal this year. So I'm crossing my fingers.


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## AlanB (Mar 15, 2009)

saxman66 said:


> I hope this doesn't effect my Empire Builder trip in a couple days. However, I use to live in ND and the Red River floods just about every year. Last time it got bad in 2006, when I was there, it hardly effected Amtrak at all. But it is true that ND got a a lot more snow than normal this year. So I'm crossing my fingers.


I just saw a report on the Weather channel and they are expecting a crest of 50' over flood stage in Fargo within the week or so.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 20, 2009)

The latest report is for 40-foot flood crest in Fargo (less than the 50 Alan heard), but for it to come unexpectedly early.


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## Guest (Mar 20, 2009)

Ispolkom said:


> The latest report is for 40-foot flood crest in Fargo (less than the 50 Alan heard), but for it to come unexpectedly early.



Any ideas on how this may affect the Empire Builder Route??


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## PRR 60 (Mar 20, 2009)

Guest said:


> Ispolkom said:
> 
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> > The latest report is for 40-foot flood crest in Fargo (less than the 50 Alan heard), but for it to come unexpectedly early.
> ...


The bridges across the Red River of the North (with the possible exception of I-94) are at about at stage 36' to 38'. So a flood at stage 40' will take all the bridges out of service, including the BNSF bridge used by the Empire Builder .


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## jmbgeg (Mar 20, 2009)

PRR 60 said:


> Guest said:
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> > Ispolkom said:
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I am scheduled to travel from the Northwest to Chicago departing on 3/26 and Chicago to the Northwest on 3/29. Ticketed deluxe sleeper reservations. Bad timing. Timing was bad when I last tried to make the trip in mid-December and the EB was cancelled during the catostrophic snows.

If the Red River washes out or covers the track, what is Amtrak likely to do (and are ther past case studies to rely upon in making that assessment)? Might they cancel the EB, or would they run one EB up to the flood zone, and build a bus bridge around to a second train on the other side of the floods (both directions)?

I am starting to do contingency planning. I might go to California instead, but I would still need to EB to get to and from PDX to connect with the CS. Unfortunately all of the sleepers on the EB to PDX and CS are at mid-to upper bucket fares and a lot higher than I paid for the Chicago trip ($2,616 RT vs. $1,626). Both itineraries are in the 36-38 hour range total.


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## AlanB (Mar 20, 2009)

I probably wouldn't panic just yet.

And it's hard to know just what Amtrak might do, especially since we don't yet know what might flood, what might get closed, much less what the freight hosts may do regarding any closures. I seem to recall though that last time Amtrak bussed around the flooding, but I won't swear to that.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 20, 2009)

AlanB said:


> I probably wouldn't panic just yet.
> And it's hard to know just what Amtrak might do, especially since we don't yet know what might flood, what might get closed, much less what the freight hosts may do regarding any closures. I seem to recall though that last time Amtrak bussed around the flooding, but I won't swear to that.


Thanks Alan.

FYI. a CSA told me tonight that if there are flood related cancellations, they would likely honor my original fare on an alternative route to Chicago. Instead of eastbound on 8 to Chicago (36 hours) I would go westbound on the EB, connect with the CS, then travel east on the CZ (74 hours combined) . That's a long trip. You gotta like train travel. Good thing I would have a deluxe sleeper.


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## Guest (Mar 21, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> AlanB said:
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> 
> > I probably wouldn't panic just yet.
> ...


Curious what happend to the Builder during the floods of 1997?


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## jmbgeg (Mar 21, 2009)

More info:

http://www.ndsu.nodak.edu/fargoflood/


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## Ispolkom (Mar 21, 2009)

Guest said:


> Curious what happend to the Builder during the floods of 1997?


IIRC the flooding was longer and more severe downstream around Grand Forks that year, and trains 7 and 8 were rerouted on the Surrey cutoff, missing Grand Forks, Devils Lake, and Rugby.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 21, 2009)

Ispolkom said:


> Guest said:
> 
> 
> > Curious what happend to the Builder during the floods of 1997?
> ...


That would arguably be better than a bus bridge or cancellation; or rerouting my trip the long route on the CZ. Any idea what the Surrey cutoff detor might do to the Chicago arrival schedule? Is that a short or long detour? Or do I not understand the map and the Surrey cutoff would not be the fix for Fargo floods?


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## Ispolkom (Mar 21, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> Ispolkom said:
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> > Guest said:
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No, it wouldn't because you would still have to cross the Red River at Fargo, and that railroad bridge will be under water if the flood hits 40 ft. Flooding in the Red River moves from south to north as the thaw comes, and can be exacerbated or mitigated by local conditions, especially how fast the local snow melts. The worst scenario is heavy rain.

Maybe Amtrak can run the Empire Builder on a more northerly route through central Minnesota, partly over Canadian Pacific track, missing Fargo while it's flooding and crossing at Grand Forks while the river there is still relatively low, but that's really just a wild guess. I have no idea how the tracks connect, or what condition they're in.

Frankly, I always expect the worst (and occasionally am happily surprised), so I'd be concerned about your return trip, as it coincides with the now-predicted crest. Can or will Amtrak reschedule you through Sacramento?

Alas, since the Red River flows north, the flooding won't go away soon. I read here  that the Red River is still frozen north of Grand Forks and at the Canadian border. I know that in 1997 the Red River finally dropped below flood stage in North Dakota only at the end of May.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 21, 2009)

Ispolkom said:


> jmbgeg said:
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> > Ispolkom said:
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Ispolkom- They have suggested they would honor my origin and return destinations through alternative routing (e.g. the CZ or SWC). The question is whether they will rebook me on a precautionary basis before the tracks are flooded or refuse to do so until the floods hit (and then there may or may not be sleeper space available on the 50 hour CZ). Ugh. Thanks for your analysis of the situation.

Update: I spoke with Customer Service and they spoke with Customer Support. Even though I can point them to this site http://fargofloods.com/

and other evidence of impending floods they will not transfer my reservation at the same fare until there is an actual flood and cancellation. By then, the CZ may be sold out.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 21, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> Update: I spoke with Customer Service and they spoke with Customer Support. Even though I can point them to this site http://fargofloods.com/and other evidence of impending floods they will not transfer my reservation at the same fare until there is an actual flood and cancellation. By then, the CZ may be sold out.


That is not a good position to be in. It seems that Amtrak is willfully ignoring the situation. I do not envy you your position, as you seem to be in for a much more, umm, *interesting* trip than you planned, or than I would have expected at the end of March. You could cancel your trip (for the second time), book something much more expensive, or you could end up traveling in much less comfort than you had paid for.

None of those are good options, and you have my sincere regrets.

It seems to me that the Empire Builder has had a miserable last twelve months. Last year there were the floods along the Mississippi last June -- I remember taking a #7 that originated in St. Paul, not Chicago. Then there was the meltdown (or rather freeze-up) in December that canceled your last trip. Now this. Good luck, jmbgeg, and let us know what happens!


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## AlanB (Mar 21, 2009)

Ispolkom said:


> That is not a good position to be in. It seems that Amtrak is willfully ignoring the situation.


Since when did the airlines start allowing people to rebook longer trips, with meals, based upon a weather forcast for next week?


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## ray828 (Mar 21, 2009)

I am also traveling on the Empire Builder from Chicago to Seattle and return starting on Friday March 27th and coming back on the 31st. This would put me through the areas of Fargo and Grand Forks the days the river is supposed to crest. I wonder if Amtrak might put people on other trains to get them to where they are going. Unfortunately I don't think the California Zephyr can connect in Sacramento with the Coast Starlight on the west bound side of my trip. I guess I will just have to try and play the next couple of days by ear. Amtrak should definately recognize the problem here and hopefully come up with a plan instead of just ignoring it.


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## AlanB (Mar 21, 2009)

ray828 said:


> Unfortunately I don't think the California Zephyr can connect in Sacramento with the Coast Starlight on the west bound side of my trip. I guess I will just have to try and play the next couple of days by ear.


Unless there is a huge delay encountered by the CZ going west, it always makes the connection with the CS going northbound. The CZ is due into SAC at 3:42 PM. The Starlight doesn't show up in SAC until around midnight, plenty of time for a connection.



ray828 said:


> Amtrak should definately recognize the problem here and hopefully come up with a plan instead of just ignoring it.


There is a difference between having a contingency plan in place and actually starting to rebook passengers until there actually is a problem. Most people don't like being inconvienced by a longer trip, especially if it turns out not to be necessary.

We see people killed by hurricanes because all to often the last 4 predictions were wrong, so everyone becomes complacent. Then when the big one does hit, no one moves because they figure that the predictions will be wrong again, and people die.

Now things are exactly life and death here with Amtrak, but still, one doesn't start actually rebooking people until it is 100% clear that there is going to be a problem. Remember, I saw a story a few days earlier that claimed a crest of 50 feet, now the latest reports are down to 40 feet. If the river comes in at 35, then there is no need to rebook anyone as the train will go through.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 21, 2009)

AlanB said:


> ray828 said:
> 
> 
> > Unfortunately I don't think the California Zephyr can connect in Sacramento with the Coast Starlight on the west bound side of my trip. I guess I will just have to try and play the next couple of days by ear.
> ...


Alan, you are always well reasoned in your responses and this is no exception.

Most of us look at contingency plans when we learn of a potential roadblock. That is my objective. I have been on the short end of enough cancelled trains to start looking for alternatives at the front end.

Amtrak has not yet sold the sleepers I had hoped to transfer to even though we are less than a week out. A transfer does not leave them less than zero but with an opportunity to sell the EB sleeper(s) I transfer from (in the event the floods do not cancel trains). I even gave them another option; to transfer me to an intinerary to LAX that is the same number of travel hours as my Chicago EB trip, to eliminate the cancelation risk. On cancellation I get a 100% refund. The LAX plan would seem to be "at par" for" them, and a lot more attractive than a same far long trip on CZ to CHI. They said that was not possible.

I hope that the floods do not happen and this ends up hypotetical. I am not looking for a blanket declaration by Amtrak of cancellation.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 22, 2009)

AlanB said:


> Ispolkom said:
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> > That is not a good position to be in. It seems that Amtrak is willfully ignoring the situation.
> ...


Actually, I can't remember the last time I flew on a domestic airline and got a meal, period.

Oh, I suppose I was overwrought in the sentence you quote, though I would be happy to bet that there will be prolonged rail traffic disruption this spring along the Red River. I just wish Amtrak would indicate that it does have a contingency plan.

One bright spot, though, is that none of the other western trains are as full as the Empire Builder. On March 29, for instance, while the Empire Builder is sold out in sleepers to Portland and Seattle, the California Zephyr and the Southwest Chief both have at least 5 bedrooms free.


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## PRR 60 (Mar 22, 2009)

Ispolkom said:


> ...Actually, I can't remember the last time I flew on a domestic airline and got a meal, period.


Airline First Class passengers still get meals (and free drinks), and that is the proper comparison for Amtrak Sleeping Car Service passengers. Amtrak coach passengers get the same as airline coach passengers - the option to buy on board or carry on.

Typically what airlines do if conditions suggest future weather problems is issue an advisory for the affected airports. Those advisories are usually issued once the forecast becomes reasonably firm. Passengers with reservations into and out of those airports can change reservations to another day or sometimes to another destination with no penalties or repricing. That certainly could be something Amtrak could offer - allow passengers on routes where forecasts strongly suggest a risk of disruption to rebook the same trip and the same accommodation to a later date with no change of fare.

If you think about it, that plan makes sense for everyone. Passengers can get ahead of the storm and avoid last minute disruptions and aggravation, and the carrier has fewer passengers to have to rebook or reroute at the last minute.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 22, 2009)

PRR 60 said:


> Ispolkom said:
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> > ...Actually, I can't remember the last time I flew on a domestic airline and got a meal, period.
> ...


Excellent analogy. In the southeast, when there is a hurricane warning, airlines typically waive all restrictions and financial costs to change airline reservations. They don't wait until the hurricane hits to relax the rules. Here there is a flood warning. They are waiting until the flood hits to allow at par rerouting.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 22, 2009)

We need a little humor along with the srious analysis of this issue. The attach link attributes the impending floods to George Bush. :blink: Say what?

http://www.topix.com/city/fargo-nd/2009/02...g-in-washington


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## AlanB (Mar 22, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> PRR 60 said:
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While I'm not promissing that Amtrak will indeed lift its restrictions early and let people move at no cost, again the examples above are not the same. Typically most airlines lift the restrictions when the hurricane forcast is reasonably firm, that usually means no more than 2 or 3 days before the hurricane actually hits. We're still a week away from the expected crest of the river, and once again there is no guarantee that it will actually crest that high.

You've been wanting Amtrak to allow rebooking more than a week and a half before a potential problem. That doesn't compare to airlines allowing 2 or 3 days.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 22, 2009)

AlanB said:


> jmbgeg said:
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Here is part of the National Weather Service's flood warning from yesterday:

FORECAST... *RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT *AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21.4 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. * IMPACT STATEMENT - AT 22.0 FEET... MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. * PRELIMINARY CREST INFORMATION... FROM 17 TO 22 FEET *BETWEEN MARCH 25TH *AND 29TH.

We are only three days out from the date they say flooding will commence.


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## AlanB (Mar 22, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> Here is part of the National Weather Service's flood warning from yesterday:
> FORECAST... *RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT *AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21.4 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. * IMPACT STATEMENT - AT 22.0 FEET... MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. * PRELIMINARY CREST INFORMATION... FROM 17 TO 22 FEET *BETWEEN MARCH 25TH *AND 29TH.
> 
> We are only three days out from the date they say flooding will commence.


Yes, but we've been talking about this for several days already. You were already looking to change last week, more than a week before any predicted crest, which is what my point was. Taking an airline that allows someone to rebook 2 or 3 days prior to a major weather event and comparing that to Amtrak's not allowing you to change more than a week in advance of an event isn't fair.

Additionally none of the predicted amounts in the above statement would impact the bridges over the river, and therefore service would continue running normally.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 22, 2009)

AlanB said:


> jmbgeg said:
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> > Here is part of the National Weather Service's flood warning from yesterday:
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I think that the statement, "PRELIMINARY CREST INFORMATION... FROM 17 TO 22 FEET *BETWEEN MARCH 25TH *AND 29TH" refers to the height of the flood above flood stage, which would put the river at 35-42 feet. In any case the weather service now predicts:



> 202 PM CDT sun Mar 22 2009
> The Flood Warning continues for
> 
> the Red River at Fargo.
> ...


Later we find these predictions for river levels in Fargo:

3/23 25.5

3/24 33.7

3/25 37.3

3/26 39.3

3/27 40.0

3/28 40.0

3/29 40.0

Note the big jump in flood level from the thunderstorms predicted for Monday, March 23 (Minot got hail on top of their snow this morning). Heavy rain speeds up snow melt, of course, along with the water directly delivered by the rain.

It's not all bad news, though. Colder weather later in the week should slow melting. In any case, by next weekend the flooding won't be as bad further north, so even if bridges are closed in Fargo, they might well be open in say Grand Forks.


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## yarrow (Mar 22, 2009)

fargo calls for sandbaggers


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## PetalumaLoco (Mar 22, 2009)

yarrow said:


> fargo calls for sandbaggers


Just now I was looking at radar over ND, rain dumping on Fargo currently.

Valley News Live, tv coverage in Fargo. , with radar.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 22, 2009)

AlanB said:


> jmbgeg said:
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> > Here is part of the National Weather Service's flood warning from yesterday:
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Alan, I hope you are 100% right and there is no service interuption. I don't want to take the long route to get to Chicago, even though I love train travel.

I respect your evaluation that I started asking to change from the EB to the CZ for my easterly outbound trip and westerly return too early; even if I disagree with that analysis.

In my analysis, this is a matter of customer service for sleeper passengers that pay a lot of money to travel. This trip it is almost $1,700, and I often spend $5-10k per year on long distance sleeper fares that range from $500-2,000. They currently have sleepers to sell on the CZ. If they made a customer service decision to allow me to transfer trains at par now and the EB is not cancelled, they have my sleeper on EB to be able to sell at high bucket and a happy customer. I will not be a happy customer if the EB cancels and they don't allow me to transfer to CZ until date of departure and either there is only coach availability for the 50 hour journey or no seats.


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## Ryan (Mar 22, 2009)

Your analysis is incorrect.

If they allow you to change for no fare change, they now have your room on the EB to sell *at the rate that you paid for it* and instead have to take a loss selling your room on the CZ+CS by selling them to you at FAR BELOW the current bucket.

If you're willing to bet that the train is going to be canceled now, you'll have to pay to make that bet and not expect Amtrak to foot that bill.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 22, 2009)

HokieNav said:


> Your analysis is incorrect.
> If they allow you to change for no fare change, they now have your room on the EB to sell *at the rate that you paid for it* and instead have to take a loss selling your room on the CZ+CS by selling them to you at FAR BELOW the current bucket.
> 
> If you're willing to bet that the train is going to be canceled now, you'll have to pay to make that bet and not expect Amtrak to foot that bill.


I have first hand experience with a similar scenario, which leads me to disagree. In February 2008 I had a ticket on the EB to Portland, CS to Sacremento, San Joaquins to Baksfield and thruway bus to Las Vegas round trip when a mudslide tore out the tracks in Oregon two days before my trip. Amtrak offered me the alternative of taking the EB to Chicago, the CA to Flagstaff, and shuttle to Las Vegas round trip at no change in fare. I accepted. The scheduled fare for that routing was nearly double the original fare paid. Amtrak has already confirmed they would route me to CHI on the CZ at the original fare IF the EB cancels.


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## AlanB (Mar 22, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> HokieNav said:
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> > Your analysis is incorrect.
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No, you miss read what Hokie wrote. But first lets back track to what you wrote. You said, "and the EB is not cancelled, they have my sleeper on EB to be able to sell at high bucket." That's not what happens.

Your room goes back into inventory at the same price that you paid for it. If someone else books it and the EB runs through, Amtrak has lost money. They gave you higher bucket rooms on the reroute, at the price that you paid. And they did not resell your EB room at the high bucket, since it goes back into inventory at the bucket level that you paid for it. Hence Amtrak takes a bit of a bath on allowing you to reroute.

Now I'm not suggesting that Amtrak shouldn't be considering the Customer Service side of things, and not just the costs. They clearly should be thinking of that, although I'm not positive that they are. But again Amtrak would be taking a loss if they let you rebook and the EB runs through and your room either goes empty or get's resold at the same bucket that you paid for it.


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## Ryan (Mar 23, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> HokieNav said:
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> > Your analysis is incorrect.
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In addition to Alan's corrections above, you're also attempting to call a situation where the tracks were definitely impassible and the train was not going to be able to run with a situation where the tracks MAY not be passable and the train MAY not be able to run.

Like Alan has said before, once it's clear that your train will not be able to operate, Amtrak will take the action that you're seeking. But, if you want to bet on the fact that your train isn't going to run, you're going to have to foot the bill for that bet - Amtrak isn't going to do so until they're convinced that your train isn't going to run. _ I'm not saying that Amtrak won't do what you're asking, I'm saying that they won't do it until they're sure that the train isn't going to run._


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## PRR 60 (Mar 23, 2009)

HokieNav said:


> In addition to Alan's corrections above, you're also attempting to call a situation where the tracks were definitely impassible and the train was not going to be able to run with a situation where the tracks MAY not be passable and the train MAY not be able to run.
> Like Alan has said before, once it's clear that your train will not be able to operate, Amtrak will take the action that you're seeking. But, if you want to bet on the fact that your train isn't going to run, you're going to have to foot the bill for that bet - Amtrak isn't going to do so until they're convinced that your train isn't going to run. _ I'm not saying that Amtrak won't do what you're asking, I'm saying that they won't do it until they're sure that the train isn't going to run._


That's the point. Amtrak is business as usual until they actually cancel service. No matter how ominous the situation, no matter the probability that things will go bad, Amtrak passengers can only sit and wait until the plug is officially pulled on service, at which point it may be too late to save plans. Customers may have hotel reservations where the first night is lost 48 hours prior to arrival. They may have event tickets. They may have air reservations. No matter. Amtrak makes them wait.

I admit to not knowing the specifcs of the top of rail elevation of the former GN bridge used by Amtrak and whether the tracks have to get sandbagged to fill-in the dikes. But from topo maps of the area, it sure looks like the line will be underwater with the river stage at 36 feet or more. The current prediction is 40 feet on Friday.

I would agree that Amtrak should not allow rebookings when there is only a slight chance of a disruption. But if the situation gets to the point that the probability of a disruption is 75% or higher, then they should open for voluntary rebookings. Having the National Guard activated and filling several hundred thousand sandbags is a clue that something is amiss in Fargo. Looking at the NWS River Forecast graph is another clue. Why not get just a little out in front and allow your customers to stay your customers rather than wait for the sandbags to be placed across the tracks and the trains to be cancelled and then go into panic mode.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 23, 2009)

PRR 60 said:


> HokieNav said:
> 
> 
> > In addition to Alan's corrections above, you're also attempting to call a situation where the tracks were definitely impassible and the train was not going to be able to run with a situation where the tracks MAY not be passable and the train MAY not be able to run.
> ...


This thread started out with the purpose of discussing whether flooding is likely to disrupt Empire Builder operations. I started a side journey focusing on the point at which Amtrak would allow EB passengers to reroute on other long distance trains (e.g. the CZ). We have thoroughly discussed that sidebar and opinions do vary. It is clear that Amtrak's policy and position is that they will not allow passengers to change there routings at par until they cancel they EB trains. That may not be a customer service and retention oriented stance, but it is their unequivocal position, and their prerogative. *At this juncture let us focus on **the progress of the floods and information on when the tracks may be impaired and trains cancelled*. I am sure there will be ample future opportunity to critique the policies further if the EB's cancel and people have problems rebooking.

Here is a CNN update:

(CNN) -- _Flooding threatened up to 6,000 homes Monday in Fargo, North Dakota, where residents rushed to fill more than 1 million sandbags to stem the flow of the Red River, city officials said._

_ _

_"So far, we have 310,000 bags filled and ready to go, but that's a long way from the 1.5 million sandbags we need to fight this flood," City Administrator Pat Zavoral said on Sunday._

_ _

_The National Guard and FEMA staff have been dispatched to help._

_ _

_Rainfall over the next few days will determine whether the worst-case scenario happens. A mix of rain, snow and snow showers were forecast. Temperatures at or below freezing would help slow any runoff._

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_*The city has closed a number of bridges over the Red River in the past week.*_

_Water and sewage-treatment facilities were at risk as the river was expected to crest at about 40 feet over the next week or so. Flood stage is anything above 17 feet._

_ _

_A record of 40.10 feet was set in April 1897. Fargo experienced similarly high flood waters in 1997 and 2001._

_ _

_About 40 miles to the south, Wahpeton, North Dakota, and Breckenridge, just across the border in Minnesota, are experiencing major flooding. Dozens of communities in the Red River basin in both states are threatened by rising waters_


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## Ryan (Mar 23, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> It is clear that Amtrak's policy and position is that they will not allow passengers to change there routings at par until they cancel they EB trains. That may not be a customer service and retention oriented stance, but it is their unequivocal position, and their prerogative.


Glad that you've come to see the situation for what it is.

Best of luck on your trip.


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## Guest (Mar 23, 2009)

I found the following on the BNSF Site. Sounds like there will be additional info tomorrow.

All Industrial Products and Agricultural Products Customers

03/23/2009

Preliminary Report: Flooding along the Red River

BNSF is monitoring areas along the Red River for flooding. The greatest impact is expected to be between Fargo, North Dakota and Noyes, Minnesota (Canadian border). We are anticipating flooding to occur on the morning of March 24, 2009. BNSF personnel will continue to provide additional information as it becomes available.

If you have any questions, please contact BNSF Customer Support at 1-888-428-2673, option 4, option 3.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 24, 2009)

HokieNav said:


> jmbgeg said:
> 
> 
> > It is clear that Amtrak's policy and position is that they will not allow passengers to change there routings at par until they cancel they EB trains. That may not be a customer service and retention oriented stance, but it is their unequivocal position, and their prerogative.
> ...


After seeing the post below by another reader with information from the BNSF site, I checked the status of eastbond EB 8 tonight to confirm that all is well. Two web sites posted a service interuption, so I called and spoke to a CSA at Amtrak. She confirmed that there is a service interuption on the March 23 and March 24 outbound EB Train 8's because of the flooding that is occuring now in the Midwest. We have transitioned from speculation to reality. I asked about Thursday's Train 8 departure (it is now 12:08 a.m. on Tuesday) and she advised that decisions had not yet been made beyond today's (March 24) departure and was unable to give me any guidance as to whether trains would be running again by Thursday. This was no comfort for trying to have some level of assurance that I can travel Thursday whether it be on the EB or CZ.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 24, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> HokieNav said:
> 
> 
> > jmbgeg said:
> ...



Replying to my own post with an update that is good news for most EB passengers... I just received an e-mail that said the following:

_As a result of Flood Stages, the Empire Builder is expected to detour missing stops in Grand Forks, ND; Devils Lake, ND; and Rugby, ND._

I was told that the EB schedule is not yet posted for my travel dates (departing 3/26, returning 3/29) but that the above detour is how the EB is running east and west right now. This service alert is not yet posted on the Amtrak website. I just checked. I do note that the information provided is silent on Fargo.

This is the best of all worlds for my trip, with a Chicago destination. Re-routing on the CZ would have given me a level of certainty and been an adventure, but it would have made the trip a lot longer with two changes of trains each way. Under the detour scenario I have only one train, not three each way, and I will be able to connect with people I planned to see on the chosen dates.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 24, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> Replying to my own post with an update that is good news for most EB passengers... I just received an e-mail that said the following:
> _As a result of Flood Stages, the Empire Builder is expected to detour missing stops in Grand Forks, ND; Devils Lake, ND; and Rugby, ND._
> 
> I was told that the EB schedule is not yet posted for my travel dates (departing 3/26, returning 3/29) but that the above detour is how the EB is running east and west right now. This service alert is not yet posted on the Amtrak website. I just checked. I do note that the information provided is silent on Fargo.


The Empire Builder will still have to cross the Red River at Fargo, but this is actually a shorter route than the standard one. Hey, you're going to get some rare mileage! I'm not sure if the Empire Builder has been on this route since 1997.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 24, 2009)

Ispolkom said:


> jmbgeg said:
> 
> 
> > Replying to my own post with an update that is good news for most EB passengers... I just received an e-mail that said the following:
> ...



Glad to hear it's shorter, though the fact that it is a route not often traveled is not of much benefit since it travels through that area in the dark of night.


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## Guest (Mar 24, 2009)

How will it be able to cross the Red River at Fargo if that is where the major flooding is supposed to occur??


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## Ispolkom (Mar 24, 2009)

Guest said:


> How will it be able to cross the Red River at Fargo if that is where the major flooding is supposed to occur??


If the Red River reaches its predicted height, the Empire Builder won't be able to cross the river at Fargo. If service to Grand Forks, Devils Lake and Rugby is already canceled, I doubt it will be able to cross there. In that case I'd expect a bus bridge between St. Paul and Minot, probably detouring around the southern end of the flooding. As it is Amtrak is being very conservative -- the cancellation for Grand Forks doesn't extend to tomorrow's #7.

The weather in the area is, umm, unsettled. Minot, which suffered a thunderstorm with hail yesterday, is now under a blizzard warning. It would seem that this storm, fortunately, will trend north of Fargo. In any case, I wouldn't want to be on the road in that stuff.


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## PetalumaLoco (Mar 24, 2009)

To muddy the waters a bit, according to this report, trains will be detoured for at least a week.


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## p&sr (Mar 24, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> _As a result of Flood Stages, the Empire Builder is expected to detour missing stops in Grand Forks, ND; Devils Lake, ND; and Rugby, ND._


There is a BNSF Mainline that runs directly from Minot to Fargo, heading south of the three towns you mention. So the problem now reduces to: How to cross the River in Fargo?


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## jmbgeg (Mar 24, 2009)

p&sr said:


> jmbgeg said:
> 
> 
> > _As a result of Flood Stages, the Empire Builder is expected to detour missing stops in Grand Forks, ND; Devils Lake, ND; and Rugby, ND._
> ...



The Fargo crossing question was one that immediately came to mind when they told me of the new plan. This incremental bit by bit disclosure of the plans and solutions is extremely frustrating. They imply they can cross by train. If that it not the case, say it will be a bus bridge and tell us how that will work. I edge ever closer to my 1:15 a.m. departure on 3/26 with mixed signals. All of this going on and zero service alerts on the Empire Builder posted on the Amtrak site. Are you kidding me?


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## AlanB (Mar 24, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> All of this going on and zero service alerts on the Empire Builder posted on the Amtrak site. Are you kidding me?


That's hardly surprising; Amtrak is notorious for not getting timely info up on its website regarding disruptions. This has been a huge criticism for years. They've been a bit better of late at getting something up, although often not until the problem is several hours old, if not a day old. And that's better because they never used to get anything up most times.

But still it's not uncommon to learn about service disruptions faster from commuter service info, newspapers, and even the freight RR's themselves, before learning about it from Amtrak via the website.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 24, 2009)

AlanB said:


> jmbgeg said:
> 
> 
> > All of this going on and zero service alerts on the Empire Builder posted on the Amtrak site. Are you kidding me?
> ...


They would save themselves a lot of phone calls and e-mails if they got the info on web sites quicker.


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## AlanB (Mar 24, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> AlanB said:
> 
> 
> > jmbgeg said:
> ...


Well I'm not sure that I'd advocate giving up the phone calls and emails no matter what. First, it's just good customer service to do that. Second, not everyone goes to the Amtrak website with any regularity. Third, in this particular case, not everyone riding the EB in the next few days is probably even aware that there is a flooding issue.

But all that said, there is still no reason that a notice can't be posted in a timely manner on the website. I could format one in probably less than 10 minutes and get it posted, if only I had access and the info, and I'm far from an expert at HTML programming.


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## ray828 (Mar 24, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> Ispolkom said:
> 
> 
> > jmbgeg said:
> ...


Just wondering, but how long would the service stop be in Minot now that the Empire Builder is skipping those three stations in North Dakota? I assuming that they will have to wait to depart at the advertised time and as mentioned above the new detour route is shorter.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 24, 2009)

ray828 said:


> Just wondering, but how long would the service stop be in Minot now that the Empire Builder is skipping those three stations in North Dakota? I assuming that they will have to wait to depart at the advertised time and as mentioned above the new detour route is shorter.


I'd imagine that the west-bound Empire Builder would already be pretty late when it reaches Minot, having gone slowly through high-water areas, so the traveler wouldn't have longer stop to sample Minot's fleshpots. (For what it's worth, Minot's red light district was conveniently located a short walk up the hill south of the Amtrak (former Great Northern) station. It was cleaned up in the 1950s, and now is the site of an Assembly of God church, the blood bank, and Minot's only Starbucks.)

Good news for Fargo, maybe. A crest prediction has been lowered upstream at Wahpeton. This might been a lower crest in Fargo. On the other hand, they're now expecting more snow to fall in Fargo than I saw predicted this morning. The weather service is keeping to their 39-41 ft crest prediction. Full story is here.


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## ray828 (Mar 25, 2009)

I wonder how much longer the Empire Builder can cross in Fargo. I've read that the red river is expected to break a record when it crests. Here is the story.

http://www.startribune.com/local/41822192....D3aiUeyc+D3aUUr


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## Guest (Mar 25, 2009)

You would think that the BNSF bridge over the Red River would be high enough to avoid the flood waters if Amtrak predicts using

the route for the next couple of weeks.


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## Guest (Mar 25, 2009)

Here is anther update from BNSF

03/25/2009

Update Report: Flooding in Minnesota and North Dakota (Red River Valley)

As mentioned in a Service Advisory on March 23, 2009, BNSF is experiencing flooding throughout the Red River Valley region. Even though we are able to get most of the trains through the area, there may be specific industries we are not able to serve because of the high waters. Also, BNSF is developing numerous reroute plans to help minimize the delays for our customers.

The attached map will illustrate the areas affected by the flooding. Photo shows flooding on the Hillsboro Subdivision. More detailed information on affected areas can be found below:

· Moorhead Subdivision (Breckenridge, MN to Moorhead, MN) will be in service later today.

· Grand Forks Subdivision (Grand Forks, ND to Cass Lake, MN) will be out of service until March 26.

· Humboldt, MN to Noyes, MN is out of service. We will not interchange traffic at Noyes to Canadian National (traffic may have an alternate route).

· Harwood, MN and Gardner, MN are out of service (Hillsboro Subdivision).

SD_ND_MN_rev2.jpgFlooding on the Hillsboro Subdivision 03-25-09.JPG

Customers may experience delays of 24 to 36 hours on shipments moving through these corridors.

If you have any questions, please contact BNSF Customer Support at 1-888-428-2673, option 4, option 3.


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## jmbgeg (Mar 25, 2009)

Guest said:


> Here is anther update from BNSF
> 
> 03/25/2009
> 
> ...


I spoke with Amtrak earlier this eveing and they said today's eastbound train 8 is on time and projected into Chicago on time on 3/27. That said, disclosure of impending problems is not their forte. This is my departure day, so I am crossing my fingers.


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## PRR 60 (Mar 26, 2009)

jmbgeg said:


> I spoke with Amtrak earlier this eveing and they said today's eastbound train 8 is on time and projected into Chicago on time on 3/27. That said, disclosure of impending problems is not their forte. This is my departure day, so I am crossing my fingers.


Good luck. Hope things work out.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 26, 2009)

PRR 60 said:


> jmbgeg said:
> 
> 
> > I spoke with Amtrak earlier this eveing and they said today's eastbound train 8 is on time and projected into Chicago on time on 3/27. That said, disclosure of impending problems is not their forte. This is my departure day, so I am crossing my fingers.
> ...


I'd like to add my best wishes, as well.

I went to check to see what time Train #8 is expected in at St. Paul this morning. Amtrak.com gave me a service disruption warning. On the other hand, train #28 is expected to be 49 minutes late. Hmm. It makes me want to go to the station and see what shows up.


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## MrFSS (Mar 26, 2009)

Ispolkom said:


> I went to check to see what time Train #8 is expected in at St. Paul this morning. Amtrak.com gave me a service disruption warning. On the other hand, train #28 is expected to be 49 minutes late. Hmm. It makes me want to go to the station and see what shows up.


Are you having, going to have, any high water issues in the Twin Cities area?


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## George Harris (Mar 26, 2009)

Here is the link to the following for those that want to look at the pictures: http://domino.bnsf.com/website/updates.nsf...84007C016A?Open



Guest said:


> 03/25/2009
> Update Report: Flooding in Minnesota and North Dakota (Red River Valley)
> 
> As mentioned in a Service Advisory on March 23, 2009, BNSF is experiencing flooding throughout the Red River Valley region. Even though we are able to get most of the trains through the area, there may be specific industries we are not able to serve because of the high waters. Also, BNSF is developing numerous reroute plans to help minimize the delays for our customers.
> ...


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## George Harris (Mar 26, 2009)

Found the following news item on Minot ND TV web: http://www.kxmc.com/News/349280.asp

The meat of the message:



> Flooding Halts Amtrak ServiceMar 24 2009 7:38PM
> 
> Amtrak will be detouring its Empire Builder because of the spring flooding.
> 
> ...


So: It will still be serving Fargo


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## EB_OBS (Mar 26, 2009)

Well we left right on time today at 2:15pm CT. In a discussion with a transportation superintendent in Seattle, it appears we are still ok to run on the alternate route unfortunately though bypassing Devils Lake, Rugby and Grand Forks.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 26, 2009)

MrFSS said:


> Ispolkom said:
> 
> 
> > I went to check to see what time Train #8 is expected in at St. Paul this morning. Amtrak.com gave me a service disruption warning. On the other hand, train #28 is expected to be 49 minutes late. Hmm. It makes me want to go to the station and see what shows up.
> ...


No, not this year. We haven't (knock on wood) had significant spring floods since 2001.

Right now I doubt that train #8 will get through Fargo tonight. Here's  a photo that shows one of the BNSF bridges (it's the old Northern Pacific Line, I think). The caption reads, "Bridges across the Red River, view facing west toward Fargo. To the right is the Center Avenue Bridge. To the left is a bridge for the BNSF Railroad. To the left, distant, is the Main Avenue Bridge. March 25, 2009. Red River stage (at Fargo): 36.6'." That picture was taken yesterday. The Red River has gone up 2-1/2 feet and is still rising. Perhaps there's a taller bridge across the Red River. I certainly hope so.


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## George Harris (Mar 26, 2009)

Ispolkom said:


> To the left is a bridge for the BNSF Railroad. To the left, distant, is the Main Avenue Bridge. March 25, 2009. Red River stage (at Fargo): 36.6'." That picture was taken yesterday. The Red River has gone up 2-1/2 feet and is still rising.


Unless they are concerned about scour, there should be no problem. Also a factor in the speed of flow is whether there are trees and other heavy stuff being carried in the flood that might damage the bridge. In the picture the water looks to be around 3 feet to low steel. Even with water up to very close to the low steel, trains would probably be allowed to cross, but slow tiptoeing across.


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## ray828 (Mar 26, 2009)

Would a crest of 41ft put the red river over the b.n.s.f. bridge? I'm heading out on the Empire builder tomorrow from Chicago to Seattle and return. I hope it doesn't disrupt Amtrak.


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## Ispolkom (Mar 26, 2009)

ray828 said:


> Would a crest of 41ft put the red river over the b.n.s.f. bridge? I'm heading out on the Empire builder tomorrow from Chicago to Seattle and return. I hope it doesn't disrupt Amtrak.


Now the National Weather Service has changed the flood crest prediction:

3/27 40.8

3/28 41.9

3/29 42.0

3/30 42.0

3/31 42.0

4/1 41.9

4/2 41.7

The discussion is pretty somber: "conditions on the Red River at Fargo have grown increasingly

dangerous over the past 24 hours. The river is currently approaching

record levels and showing no sign of slowing at this point. As the

river exceeds the previous record level... the relative uncertainty

in forecast models has increased significantly. Record flows upstream

of Fargo have produced unprecedented conditions on the Red River. Given

these factors... the river is expected to behave in ways never previously

observed. The crest forecast at Fargo is now expected to be between 41

and 42 feet by Saturday... but could potentially be as high as 43 feet...

and continue for 3 to 7 days."

As for the picture I linked to earlier today, the road bridge on the right is closed and, according to someone interviewed on Minnesota Public Radio, "water is running over it." The now-expected high is 5.5 feet higher than that shown in the picture.

The only open automobile bridge across the Red River is I-94, which isn't surprising as I believe the highest point in Fargo is an interstate overpass.

There are other railroad bridges in Fargo, but I have no information on them. My impression is, though that the central core of Fargo, where the train station is and where the Empire Builder usually crosses, is slightly higher than the rest of the city, which has to be a good thing.

I would have thought that the recent cold weather (it's supposed to get down to single digits tonight) would have slowed the river's rise, but it's obviously a terribly complex system.


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## ray828 (Mar 26, 2009)

Thanks for the post! I also hope that the bridge is higher so Amtrak can complete the route without a bus bridge scenario.


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## Cascadia (Mar 26, 2009)

Good luck to those of you who are on the EB or have trips planned in the near future. Guess you'll have some stories to tell no matter what happens. Here's to an uneventful trip. Post and tell us how it went!


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## anir dendroica (Mar 27, 2009)

Predicted flood crest: 42.0 feet

http://weather.hamweather.com/rivers/gauge/FGON8.html

Water surface elevation at BNSF bridge at 42-foot stage: ~903.5 feet

http://media.cityoffargo.com/maps/Engineer...tions%20(2).pdf

*note that the mainline ex-NP bridge used by the detours is between Main Ave. and NP Ave. and is not listed here - the listed "BNSF bridge" is the ex-GN crossing that the Builder normally uses*

Elevation of BNSF tracks: ~906 feet

http://media.cityoffargo.com/maps/Engineer...d%20Ave%20S.pdf

It will be close...


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## Ispolkom (Mar 27, 2009)

anir dendroica said:


> Predicted flood crest: 42.0 feethttp://weather.hamweather.com/rivers/gauge/FGON8.html
> 
> Water surface elevation at BNSF bridge at 42-foot stage: ~903.5 feet
> 
> ...


Thanks for finding real information. I had not imagined that the former Great Northern bridge was that much higher. It certainly confirms my old prejudices in favor of the Great Northern, the result of growing up along its old main line.

As usual, I was too pessimistic. Train #8 is expected in St. Paul 2 hours 42 minutes late today. Late, but it did get through!


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## George Harris (Mar 27, 2009)

anir dendroica said:


> Predicted flood crest: 42.0 feethttp://weather.hamweather.com/rivers/gauge/FGON8.html
> 
> Water surface elevation at BNSF bridge at 42-foot stage: ~903.5 feet
> 
> ...


Uhh, are you sure about that 906 feet elevation for the tracks. Looking at the map it may be 901 feet. The one lable on a contour of 905 may not apply to the one near the track. It may even be in error, as there is no 900 label appearing between the one black contour line between the one labeled 890 and the one labeled 905, and there should be two.

What is more interesting is the magnitude of this flood. If you go to the other sheet you linked, it shows the 100 year flood elevation as being at 899.87 feet and the 500 year flood elevation being at 903.21 feet at the BNSF bridge.

Sooo, this flood exceeds the theoretical 500 year interval high water elevation. Normal design of most roads and bridges is to clear the 100 year flood, or sometimes even less. Sometimes for major structures the term "Maximum Credible Flood" is used, and that is usually somewhere in the vicinity of the 500 year elevation.

Just for information, these nature of these designations is somewhat misleading. What they really mean is not that the 100 year flood will occur only once in a century, but that every year you have a 1.0% chance of having a flood up to the "100 year" elevation and an 0.2% chance of having a flood up to the "500 year elevation" Thanks to a series of hurricanes, I beleive it was in the 1960's the James River at Richmond Virginia had 3, or maybe more floods that exceeded the "100 year" elevation in about a 5 year period.


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## EB_OBS (Mar 27, 2009)

Over an hour of that late arrival time was because someone was put off in an ambulance about 10 miles outside of Minot last night. Then the resulting slow orders through Fargo attributed to the rest.

The conductors out of St. Cloud did have to dogcatch the builder today too.


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## PetalumaLoco (Mar 28, 2009)

Grand Forks floodcam.

View of Red River from downtown Grand Forks near DeMers Avenue facing the Sorlie Bridge and downtown East Grand Forks.

Decent picture even at night.

Fargo floodcam.

The camera is located on the 7th floor of the US Bank building in downtown Moorhead facing downtown Fargo to the west.

This cam is out as I post this, they are hoping to get it back on line.

There is a rail bridge in this view, they say, but I don't know if it's the one used by the EB.


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## ez223 (Mar 28, 2009)

Today's trains through Fargo made it.

Train 7/27 27(Mar) departed Fargo 47m late.

Train 8/28 26(Mar) departed at 441am, 2hr 28m late. Arrived into MSP at 930am, 2hr 24m late.

As of right now, even though the news has got worse, Train 7/27 is expected to depart on-time.

Someone asked what does "dogcatch" mean, it's when the train crew's FRA allowable work time has expired, it's 12 hours maximum, and a new crew it sent out to meet the train, intending to dogcatch the train before the crew dies. Usually, the dogcatch crew is the next crew that would be taking over at a crew change point. Sometimes an extra board conductor and engineer will be called or sometimes even they may be called to work OT on a day off.


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## PRR 60 (Mar 28, 2009)

The NWS has revised the river forecast and it appears the flooding in Fargo has peaked. The river forecast states that the Red River of the North crested at midnight (3/27-28) at 40.82 feet and is now slowly receding. The river is predicted to drop below 40 feet Tuesday evening. That is a tremendous improvement over the earlier forecast of a 43 to 44 foot flood, and is great news for the people in the Fargo - Moorhead area. With the river at 40 feet plus there is still a danger, but a flood at 44 feet could have been a disaster.

As for the Empire builder, things look good for now.


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## EB_OBS (Mar 28, 2009)

It appears officials believe that the Red river has crested at 40.82 feet. The article said that it may take a week to drop by two feet. At 40.82 feet that leaves the bridge that Amtrak is using to cross the river in satisfactory condition.

MSNBC

EZ


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## jmbgeg (Apr 4, 2009)

ez223 said:


> Over an hour of that late arrival time was because someone was put off in an ambulance about 10 miles outside of Minot last night. Then the resulting slow orders through Fargo attributed to the rest.
> The conductors out of St. Cloud did have to dogcatch the builder today too.


The medical emergency was kind of weird. First, they paged the conductor to the dining car, followed by paging any medical practioners on board. It was later than the dining car would typically be operating. Next, it took a long time for the ambulance to arrive. If it was a heart attack, the delay in the ambulance arriving was beyond the normal survival window.


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