# The Law of Averages in Action



## PaulM (Feb 10, 2014)

[SIZE=11pt]The law of averages claims that you can beat the odds only so long before they catch up with you in a big way. Our 2014 nine segment winter journey was a case in point. It took us from Fort Madison, IA (FMD) to Santa Fe (LMY), then to Clearwater/St Petersburg (STP) by way of CHI, WAS, and Tampa (TPA), then from TPA to Sebring, FL (SBG), and finally SBG back to FMD by way of NYP and CHI. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]The day we left Quincy, IL it was warm enough to take care of final errands by bicycle. But by the time we had completed the 1:15 drive to Fort Madison to board the Southwest Chief (SWC) #3, it had begun to snow, signaling the start of more than a month of snow and bitter cold across the eastern 2/3 of the country.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Being a Saturday with no agent on duty, we had the opportunity to test the radically new system of self-checking baggage. Inside the station was a large sign board describing the steps: take a blank check from the board one for each bag, write in the destination code based on a list displayed, remove and keep the claim check part, attach the rest to the bag, follow the signs telling you where to stand to hand the bags to train personnel? At the door to the platform was a sign with a left arrow for train 4 (eastbound) and a right one for #3. So we rolled our two large "airline legal" suitcases containing folding bikes down the platform to another sign saying stand here to hand off the bags. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]As the train arrived on time, a staff member came bounding out of the trans-dorm and took one of my bags and asked me to bring the other to the trans-dorm. Another staff member took it from me; and that was the last I saw of them until LMY.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]We were on time all the way to LMY. Just before arriving we passed #4 also on time. This was one of the 3 trains reported missing is snow drifts in central Illinois the next day. The only baggage checking step I missed back in FMD was the part about removing the claim check. When we reached LMY, my wife was able to sneak the claim check from the luggage while the agent was fending off the other passengers who were trying to take their luggage without presenting the claim check to the agent. Not that the agent would want to deal with the two large bags when she could unload them on us, claim check or not.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt] Because the next leg involved connections to the Capitol Limited (CL) in CHI and the Silver Star (SS) in WAS, I spent next the 5 days in Santa Fe nervously following reports of trains lost in the snow, cancelled, and departing CHI grossly late.[/SIZE] But o[SIZE=11pt]ur luck continued to hold when our #4 was expected at LMY on time. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]As I was having my tickets (paper because the last segment was a bus) printed at LMY, I commented to the agent that the sign board showing #3 on time couldn't be right because it had left CHI 5 hours late the day before. When I asked him what was going on, he referred to the cold weather and added that even those out here in the boonies keep up with what was going on. When I pointed out that the temperature was in the mid-30's in Chicago, he handed me a newspaper showing dire predictions of weather Armageddon. I pointed out that the edition was 5 days old. I thought I was just making conversation and he was kidding around; but my wife who was standing not too far away said it sounded like a serious argument. I began to think she had it right when the agent strenuously recommended that we not check the bags because he couldn't guarantee they would make the connections to Florida. The last thing I wanted if we were to miss connections was to be responsible for two heavy suitcases. So I held my ground and had them checked.[/SIZE]







[SIZE=11pt]An historical exhibit showing the severely delayed #3 as on time.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]We arrived early in CHI and against all odds, the CL departed on time. The day before it had departed 1 1/2 hours late, and for several days before that about 5 hours late.[/SIZE]






[SIZE=11pt]Lounge lizards on the CL[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Again, against all odds we arrived early in WAS, giving us only enough time to walk to the capital and back. The SS was about 20 minutes late arriving from NYP and maintained that all the way.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]The dedicated Thruway bus to STP and points south was comfortable and made good time, once it got moving. It took a while for the many passengers to detrain and make their way to the bus and for the baggage to arrive and be loaded underneath it. No complaints about the STP station, one of only two staffed Amtrak bus stations, except being in a strip mall half way between Clearwater and St. Pete necessitated a $30 cab ride to downtown St. Pete. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]After a week in St. Petersburg and another in Dunedin, we packed our bikes in suitcases and headed to Sebring, FL on the Silver Star from TPA. That we couldn't take the thruway bus from STP to TPA is the subject of another rant. This time the train was 45 minutes late, but not bad coming all the way from NY.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]After a week in Sebring it was time to pack up and face the cold, cruel word. Our last leg took us back to FMD via NYP and CHI on the Silver Meteor (SM), Lakeshore Limited (LSL), and SW Chief. The rational for returning via NYP instead of WAS was: 1) the SM arrives in WAS around 7:00AM - no time for a leisure shower and breakfast, 2) a shorter layover in CHI, 3) we'd already tried the CL, 4) the opportunity to walk around NY during the layover, 5) and most important of all. we were on an AGR ticket from SBG to Toledo (TOL) and normally switch to coach there. The LSL departs TOL at 6:15AM, making the switch to coach somewhat easier than the CL which departs at 5:22AM. And the LSL OTP has been pretty poor lately.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]As a side note, I decided to spring for continuing in the roomette, much to my wife's consternation. To her $100 for an extra hour's sleep was too extravagant. I really couldn’t begrudge her attitude because it was this mentality that allowed me to retire at 50 and indulge my hobbies, like train riding. I was pretty sure that the LSL would be very late, but justified the decision by being prepared for a possible melt down, and at least being able to sleep through it.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]It's here where the law of averages finally caught up with us. Our luck changed drastically. We departed about 20 min late; but right in front of the Sanford Autotrain station we came to a halt and the HE power went out, which is never a good sign. I got a once in a lifetime close up view of how the autoracks are loaded while we waited for a replacement engine. Strangely enough the delay was only an hour. There must have been a protect engine at Sanford.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]We arrive in NYP about 2 hours late. Since I had strained my back and was not in shape to walk around, the 2 hour layover, rather than 4, was not unwelcome.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]We departed more or less on time. When the conductor collected my ticket, I asked him how to insure I wouldn't be awakened in TOL since I had that a separate sleeper ticket from there to CHI. He looked in his manifest and didn't see me past TOL. I offered to show him the eTicket print out, but he had a new scanner that he hadn't been able to get to work, and said he would come back later. Given what happened next, I forgave him for forgetting about me. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]We hadn't even emerged from the tunnel in NY - I'm told we were 1.9 miles from NYP - when we stopped and the power went out. The announcement was they were trying to reboot (or whatever you do to a locomotive computer). After the power flickered on and off several times, it was announced that we would be towed back to NYP. Whatever did the job mustn't have been equipped with HE power. About the only positive thing I can say is that getting trapped in a roomette for 4 hours beats getting trapped on the runway in a plane. Our door was open so you could stand on the platform; but with only the two announcements mentioned earlier, and no staff in sight, you couldn't go very far. For a while I was able to entertain myself with my computer; but after a while it died and there was no power in the outlet. Then for a while I read a book; but soon the light died. At some point the sleeping car attendant came around with deli sandwiches and snacks. After watching many NJT commuter trains, NE Regionals, and even a few Acela’s come and go on the adjacent track 8, we got power back and departed 4:20 late. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]When the diner finally opened at 9:00 PM, we decided it was too late and let the sandwich suffice.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]After Poughkeepsie I decided to retire but first told the SCA about the TOP-CHI ticket. She also didn't have me on her manifest; and when I showed her the ticket, she was the first to spot the problem. When I booked the paid ticket with a telephone agent, I was clear what I wanted, including giving her the AGR reservation number. She proceeded to make the reservation, but didn't know or forgot that the LSL departs from TOL a day later than from NYP. In effect she sold me an impossible ticket. If on time, I would have been between RVR and WAS on the SM when I was supposed to be boarding the LSL in TOL. I was so concerned about getting the room right that I failed to check the date on the eTicket. The agent in SBG was no help. He readily checked our two bags through to FMD.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]I tried twice to straighten it out over the phone; but both times I lost cell coverage about the time I had explained the sad story. It then occurred to me that by this time we were so late that a sharp phone agent might question a guaranteed connection in CHI. So I used my phone as a WiFi hot spot and booked a new reservation. This time I booked coach only because by now we so late. As it turned out, we didn't arrive in TOL until 12:41 PM, giving us time to have lunch in the diner, partially making up for the missed supper. I should mention that I was later able to get a voucher for the bad ticket: a regular eVoucher for the coach part and a special one for the sleeper portion that requires calling customer relations to redeem.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]So after a lot of stop and go all along the line, we arrived in CHI 8:13 late, long after the SW Chief had left, even though it departed over an hour and a half late. Despite a long line at customer service - Cal. Zephyr mis-connects had also joined the crowd, it didn't take very long to get our hotel and cash vouchers. As is our standard practice, we immediately caught a cab to the hotel, preferring to cash the voucher and get the new ticket the next day.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]We were assigned to The Swisshotel located on the Chicago River between Michigan Av. and the Navy Pier. It made me think that when I have some free time, I ought to try to book an itinerary that maximizes the chance of a mis-connect. An added bonus of the hotel was the 12:00PM check out time since our train didn't leave until 3:00.[/SIZE]






Swisshotel fitness center






View of the mouth of the Chicago River and Navy Pier from fitness center






Chicago highrises viewed from fitness center

I should mention when I cashed the voucher at the CHI ticket counter, the agent said my mis-connect reservation had been canceled because of the no-show, although it was the LSL that didn't show. Never the less, she was able to rebook me without further ado.

[SIZE=11pt]The SW Chief departed about 10 min late; but all was forgotten as soon as we turned the corner onto the Aurora Race Track and never slowed down until the Naperville stop. But from there on it was continuous stop and start, very unusual for this BNSF line. Eventually we arrived 1:12 late at FMD where our luck continued to fail.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Our car wouldn't start, not surprising since it had been sitting for 33 days in the lot. Fortunately, I came with a battery charger and long extension cord. I had parked as close to the BNSF end of the very long building housing the Amtrak station and BNSF facilities as I could. I was able to plug the charger into an outlet in a locker room, and also use the locker room as a warming hut while we waited. FMD is a crew change point with double stack trains coming and going in each direction every 5 minutes; but no one objected to our using their facilities. After about an hour the starter fired up; and we began the 1:15 ride home.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]It wasn't until we were on the road that I discovered we had barely escaped another disaster. While my wife went to start the car I waited for our luggage. Soon the agent came down the platform rolling the two suitcases. I asked her if she was going inside the station - I wanted to help by holding the two doors open that she would have to go through. She said no, and set them down near the door outside. I asked her if the snow on them had come all the way from Florida; and she playing along said yes. I dumped our carry-on bike panniers on top of them and went to check on the car, forgetting to actually take possession of the luggage. Later in the car, my wife said that a message from the agent had been left on her phone to come get the 2 suitcases since she was locking up and going home. She had taken the checked bags inside leaving the carry-ons on the platform. I can understand missing the call what with all that was going on, not to mention being surrounded by freight engines churning on both sides of us. I still don't know what made my wife check her message, but it saved a round trip back to FMD.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Something I would do again? Definitely. But I wish they would solve the Tampa bus problem.[/SIZE]


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## Ryan (Feb 10, 2014)

Excellent trip report - sounds like a good time, overall.


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## SarahZ (Feb 10, 2014)

I can't see the photos, but it was a great trip report. I'm glad your car finally started.


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## Railroad Bill (Feb 10, 2014)

Great trip report.  You survived to ride again :giggle:

Reminds me of our recent trip on the SS and LSL. Snow and stopped engines. Seems to be the common thing on the LSL these days.


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## Bob Dylan (Feb 10, 2014)

Nice Trip!! Sounds like your Good Karma overcame the Law of Averages Paul! (Bet you're glad ya'll didnt have to Bike Home upon arrival! ^_^ ) Pretty Fancy digs in Chicago, I've been lucky too with Hotels in CHI when Late Trains resulted in Overnights on Amtrak's Dime! Wonder if Anthony aka AGR Insider on Flyer Talk could put a bug in Operations Ear about the Screwy Bus Situation in Tampa?


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## the_traveler (Feb 10, 2014)

Sounds like one of my routings! :giggle:

One thing is that I would not have originally booked a Roomette from TOL to CHI. I would have just booked coach. There is a very good chance that the room would not be resold - and that you could have stayed in the room anyway! (I've done so many times, including on the CS between SAC and MTZ.) Just speak with your SCA.


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## PaulM (Feb 11, 2014)

the_traveler said:


> Sounds like one of my routings! :giggle:
> 
> One thing is that I would not have originally booked a Roomette from TOL to CHI. I would have just booked coach. There is a very good chance that the room would not be resold - and that you could have stayed in the room anyway! (I've done so many times, including on the CS between SAC and MTZ.) Just speak with your SCA.


This is the third time I've done the TOL shuffle. The first two times I followed your advice. The first time when I mentioned to the SCA that I was moving to coach and to wake me as late as possible, he told me to take all the time I wanted. The second time, no mention was made of staying beyond TOL and of course we were right on time. This time, after buying the coach only ticket while on the train, the SCA didn't offer to let us stay, even as a good will gesture after arriving 7 in TOL hours late. Of course, by this time it was academic, we simply moved our little bit of stuff to the adjacent dead head cafe car.


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## PaulM (Feb 11, 2014)

SarahZ said:


> I can't see the photos, but it was a great trip report. I'm glad your car finally started.


I'm not sure why you can't see the photos. I have a lot more at the top of

http://biketrain.x10.mx/DLD/stp.htm

and bottom of

http://biketrain.x10.mx/DLD/sebring.htm

On of the more interesting is the






SBG station makeover based on the Homeland Security and HIPAA school of design


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## SarahZ (Feb 11, 2014)

I can see them now. I love the shots of the Swissotel. The skyline picture in the pool area is pretty, and I can feel how cold it is when looking at the shots of the city (probably because I just came inside).


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## Everydaymatters (Feb 15, 2014)

Thanks for sharing this with us, Paul. The pictures are terrific.


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