Tracking FY 2024 Ridership and Finances

So @west point made the observation that once 176 was expanded to Lynchburg ridership held steady on the Crescent, but passenger miles increased. This indicated that sellouts and price pressure at the top of the corridor were present, and once the NER diverted some of that traffic up top latent demand actualized below. Given there was once a busy MSP cut car, I suspect we could see the same phenomenon.

I totally agree about total ridership. I also remember seeing somewhere 148k for estimated Borealis ridership. I think that will be a very low estimate.

Septa9739 said:

I totally agree about total ridership. I also remember seeing somewhere 148k for estimated Borealis ridership. I think that will be a very low estimate.

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I agree completely. I have seen several different estimates over the years, for some reason, one of which was something really small like 110 to 120k. If the ridership for the Borealis' first full year is below 200,000 at this point, I might actually be surprised, given how strongly it has started out. I think only way it would fall closer to the estimates is unforeseen issues like weather taking out tracks/bridges causing temporary suspension, or major equipment issues. But given how new the service is (and how important showcasing new services is to Amtrak), it's more likely that the Borealis will be prioritized for equipment!

I also expect an annualized 200,000+ for sure, but in the Amtrak yearly stats the "first year" will be only about four months of ridership.

Not to be a broken record, but Amtrak say the Borealis can get Amfleet carriages and another frequency, if Minnesota pays. Maybe that was loose talk by Amtrak, don't know.

And Virginians know that northbound the LD's will likely be late, as with the eastbound Empire Builder. In olden days, fine dining made a roomette sort of worth it even for a short trip, with two people. Nowadays the LD base fares are two to three times higher than the NER - though that can change closer to departure, as the NER's fill up, it seems. Some ridership and bucket-filling correlates to college schedules.

I guess people know U. Minn. is the only one of the traditional Big 10 schools in a major city, other than Northwestern, and still is in the top three in enrollment, at 55,000.

JamesWhitcombRiley said:

Not to be a broken record, but Amtrak say the Borealis can get Amfleet carriages and another frequency, if Minnesota pays. Maybe that was loose talk by Amtrak, don't know.

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I've not heard anything about the Borealis getting Amfleet. Hasn't been discussed among MN advocates, at least, from what I've heard. WisDOT received Corridor ID money to study a third Borealis frequency; that study should be getting started this summer. Although MN was the laggard in funding the initial Borealis frequency, it's a "all the state partners would need to pay" (mostly MN and WI but also IL) to get another frequency.

Yes, there is massive ridership potential from UMN alone, along with the large and train/transit friendly population of younger urban dwelling folks in the Twin Cities. Not to mention students from the Cities going to Winona (multiple colleges, mainly Winona State), or even to Milwaukee or Chicago-area schools, and of course the reverse with Chicago students going to TC-area colleges, even beyond UMN.

To follow-up on my previous post (generally and because I think some other posts that I received notifications for were deleted), the "Minnesota needs to pay" statements are about getting new *rolling stock* for the Borealis, specifically. My apologies for being so definitive--I think I saw a separate post with the quote from Amtrak's Marc M. about that, but I had assumed the above post from @JamesWhitcombRiley referred to Minnesota alone having to pay for new *service*, not for new rolling stock. All the states would need to pay for the potential second Borealis trip/3rd daily trip in the CHI-MSP corridor, of course.

More info about the Borealis. Ridership now estimated at 232,000 for the year. There was allegedly a surplus the first month. It is unclear to me whether month means first 30 days (I.E. 18,500 May 21?-June 20) or the calendar month of June. I think the later. We’ll need to wait for official reports.

https://media.amtrak.com/2024/07/borealis-ridership-tops-18500-in-first-full-month/

https://www.startribune.com/amtrak-borealis-train-ridership/600379456/

Septa9739 said:

It is unclear to me whether month means first 30 days (I.E. 18,500 May 21?-June 20) or the calendar month of June. I think the later.

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According to WisDOT's communication with WisARP, the "18,500" is for the calendar month of June 2024.

Septa9739 said:

More info about the Borealis. Ridership now estimated at 232,000 for the year.

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317 riders per train is downright respectable. It'll be interesting to see how winter and holiday travel affects things.

317 average passengers? Even with some intermediate riders that means a veery full train load. If all Horizons are the 72 seat capacity that means only 288 seats in 4 regular coaches.

thefirewarde said:

317 riders per train is downright respectable. It'll be interesting to see how winter and holiday travel affects things.

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Indeed! Same here. Although the Amtrak and other folks who have hyped the "college students will take this train so much" might be a bit overestimating that demographic accounting for a giant amount of ridership, it will definitely be a boon in the colder months. I imagine that many students who wouldn't have (or their parents wouldn't have considered letting them) taken the Builder due to its wild unpredictability, worse schedule especially arriving late on the western end of the route, etc., will give the Borealis a try. Even if during the school year there's only ~200 college students (across all stations) a week who use the train during peak travel times, and a few dozen on certain weekends or other random times, you're probably talking thousands of extra riders, often coming at times when leisure travel in the Upper Midwest is quieter.

Also, the lower price point is a big deal for some of that demographic. Bike service would also be a boon if they can work that out - college kids without cars aren't a huge market but every rider helps.

Also, with seat calcs don't forget the 15 business seats in the cafeteria car.

Question for the more informed rolling stock folks, are there any of the hybrid business/coach cars NOT in the Venture pool? It seems like adding 36 or so business seats plus some coach capacity would be the next logical addition, but I don't know if there are any non-Venture coaches set up that way right now, much less if they're in the Midwest.

I, while waiting for someone to bother to publish June’s report, threw together this competitive ranking chart of MAY YTD 2019 and MAY YTD 2024. It may be neat to looks at how one’s choice routes stack up. It also helps sho national trends, the significant missing ridership on the old major corridors, the rapid growth of some smaller ones, the issues with long distance, and the rapid and exponential growth of the NER. I’d be curious what else people might find.

Here's how ridership looked in April - MAY - June 1978, from Rail Transit News issue 178.

Septa9739 said:

I, while waiting for someone to bother to publish June’s report, threw together this competitive ranking chart of MAY YTD 2019 and MAY YTD 2024. It may be neat to looks at how one’s choice routes stack up. It also helps sho national trends, the significant missing ridership on the old major corridors, the rapid growth of some smaller ones, the issues with long distance, and the rapid and exponential growth of the NER. I’d be curious what else people might find.

Rank	2019	2024
1	NER 5,822.9	NER 7051.9
2	Acela 2,377.9	Acela 2,127.6
3	PacSurf 1,743.6	PacSurf 1,219.8
4	CapCor 1,181.2	Emp S 883.8
5	Keystone 1,054.7	Keystone 870.1
6	EmpS 795.1	CapCor 689.7
7	SanJoaquin 709	San Joaquin 601.7
8	Hiawatha 562.8	Cascades 546.3
9	Cascade 504.7	Hiawatha 438.2
10	Lincoln 406.5	Springfield S 396.4
11	Downeaster 345.1	Lincoln 375.7
12	Wolverine 321.1	Downeaster 374.9
13	Starlight 268.9	WAS-NFK 332.2
14	Silver Star 262.1	Empire N 321.1
15	CA Zephyr 260.5	Wolverine 276.5
16	Empire B 253.6	Lakeshore Ltd 260.7
17	Empire N 245.0	Silver Star 253.6
18	Springfield S 235.6	Piedmont 243.9
19	Silver Meteor 229.1	WAS-NPN 242.7
20	Palmetto 224.6	Palmetto 241.1
21	Lakeshore Ltd 223.5	Empire Builder 235.5
22	WAS-NPN 215.7	Starlight 235
23	Eagle 209.7	CA Zephyr 233.3
24	SW Chief 204.4	Carolinian 229.7
25	Crescent 189.2	WAS-RNK 221.9
26	Illini 176.9	Eagle 215.1
27	Carolinian 169.6	Crescent 203.5
28	Auto Train 158.4	Illini 195.8
29	CONO 156.1	Silver Meteor 193.5
30	Piedmont 147.5	Auto Train 182.7
31	WAS-LYN 143.6	SW Chief 167.5
32	PA 137.7	CONO 159.2
33	WAS-NFK 128.4	PA 148.3
34	Capitol Ltd 127.1	MO River 116.5
35	IL Zephyr 125.7	Blue Water 108.4
36	Blue Water 116.2	Capitol Ltd. 101.6
37	MO River 101.7	WAS-RVR 97.0
38	WAS-RVR 90.9	IL Zephyr 90.8
39	Adirondack 69.2	Vermonter 72.5
40	Cardinal 68.7	Cardinal 60.5
41	Vermonter 63.8	P. Marquette 58.3
42	P. Marquette 60.8	Ethan Allen 56.9
43	Sunset Ltd 60.5	Adirondack 55.7
44	Heartland 43.7	Sunset Ltd. 52.6
45	Ethan Allen 30.6	Heartland 51.2

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I presume these numbers are thousands of passengers per year.

The June ridership report was finally released. It was exceedingly boring. Almost all trains reported percentages within 3% of May, so I am not going to publish a list. There are a couple things worth noting:

The NER reported YTD ridership of 7,958,000 after two months of ridership over 950,000. Barring an act of God, or something similarly catastrophic, the NER will carry 10,000,000 passengers this year for the first time ever. Three months are left this year. 11,000,000 is not out of the question.

1. Far less glamorous, but perhaps more importantly, the Heartland Flyer, carried 8400 passengers this month, 140 per frequency. This is, perhaps, a new all time monthly record, and this is a piece of the country that is relatively hostile to public transportation. The third coach may need to become permanent rather than variable.
2. The Adirondack carried a whopping 1,500 people in June, 25 a frequency. Presumably this is only ridership to Saratoga and the rest is counted elsewhere.
3. The Blue Water reached 100% recovery for the first time since February.
4. The Missouri River Runner posted a 206% recovery, but June 2019 ridership is about half of May 2019 ridership. Something disrupted service in 2019. It was five years ago. I have faint memories of a flood and a reduction in service due to flooding. Extra worthless bonus points to whoever remembers what the cause was without looking it up.
5. The Piedmont has a similar situation.
6. The Silver Star roared to 37,600 its best level of the year (odd as Florida trains peak in the winter typically) post a 110% recovery, it’s first time since February.
7. The Sunset Limited slid to 67% recovery. It started the year at 100%. Something is quite wrong. I have know idea why.
8. A final really exciting note. The Springfield Shuttle became the first route in the country to set an all time ridership record. June FY 2024 YTD ridership sits at 442,600, above the FY 2023 record ridership of 439,000. There are still three months to go. More records look to topple next month. We could see some good ones. E.G. Both the Cascades and Heartland Flyer are taking a hard look at their 2012 records (if my imperfect data is correct).

Septa9739 said:

A final really exciting note. The Springfield Shuttle became the first route in the country to set an all time ridership record. June FY 2024 YTD ridership sits at 442,600, above the FY 2023 record ridership of 439,000. There are still three months to go.

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That is cool. I assume this does not count CTRail ridership. If that is true and CTRail is added it would be even more impressive.