I think it's pretty clear at this point that the "can't fly, refuse to drive" crowd is not nearly large enough
I think it's clearly large enough to keep *some* trains operating. I'm not sure how many, but my guess based on population patterns is at least NY-Chicago and Chicago-LA (SW Chief). Consider that regularly scheduled ocean liner service, as distinct from cruise service, still exists from London to New York.
The rest of the trains have different clientele; the Empire Builder is basically providing a way to get in and out of a bunch of isolated towns in ND and MT, for example. The Coast Starlight has its isolated towns as well. The California Zephyr west of Denver has all those skiing areas, and the "land cruise" traffic, and at the west end has Reno. Denver-Chicago is a perfectly good corridor. The Texas Eagle is really on an incredibly excellent corridor route, it's just too damn slow and unreliable; if it were as fast as driving and ran on time, I think it would absolutely boom.
At this point the Sunset Limited does not have a meaningful clientele. The people who ride it regularly seem to complain that it's not practical, which is a very bad sign.
to keep the Western trains operating within the realm of what America's government is willing to fund. That's not a knock against you so much as a reminder that Amtrak has to do what it can to remain relevant in today's market. I think we can all agree that Amtrak will have fewer and fewer government dollars to spend as time goes on.
Actually, I disagree on this. I think Amtrak will have more and more government money to spend. It will take a few years before that happens; we have to get past the demographic tipping point, which is very close to my birth year. My age is actually the median age in the US, but since people under 18 can't vote, it's going to be another decade or two before it's the median *voter* age.
The shift to ever-increasing government funding of Amtrak will happen sooner in some states than in others, *and it already is happening in some states*. I think Amtrak is now receiving more state government money than Amtrak has ever received before. Eventually the trend will filter up to the federal government, but as I say, it'll take a while.
However, an awful lot of that future government money is going to go to short corridors, huge numbers of which are desperately needed all over the country. Allentown-Philadelphia and Allentown-NYC are each more valuable than any of the western trains, IMNSHO, and I can list off several dozens of corridors like that without much thought.
We're already witnessing this dynamic: Amtrak now has to decide between spending money funding operations for western transcons, or spending money on capital improvements for other (better) routes, whether it's NEC improvements or new Viewliners or purchasing the bridge across the Niagara River.
You can see the mood clearly tilting towards the latter. I can't really argue with this, since the capital improvements end up giving us more service overall. Frankly, if cancelling the Sunset Limited gets us 20 more Viewliners, I'd do it, because I can immediately think of deployments for those Viewliners which would be more popular than the Sunset Limited and cost less to run.
I think we can also agree that there is only a finite amount that Amtrak can raise fares before they will begin to price themselves out of the market.
Yeah, though I don't know how high that is. It seems to be astronomically high on the LSL, but much lower on the western transcons. *This* is clearly a problem for the western transcons.
Assuming we can agree on those two points then over a long enough timeline some of the current routes will need to be cut in order to save other routes.
I'm not sure this is the case. It really is a question of what needs to be done to get through the next couple of decades, since after that Amtrak's funding is going to increase. Routes which have political support, such as the Empire Builder, will find funding somehow. I don't see much hope for the Sunset Limited, where service seems to be below the level where it gets votes. (That level is probably "daily".)
On another matter, the Lake Shore Limited timekeeping is almost entirely the fault of CSX, which needs to be smacked down by the Surface Transportation Board for its blatant lawbreaking. New York State is planning to build separate passenger tracks (once NY comes up with funding) essentially because of the illegal delays caused by CSX. There is also some trouble in the final Chicago approach on NS, but that should be fixed by the already-under-construction Englewood Flyover and Indiana Gateway projects; NS is a pretty responsible host.
I'll respond to CHamliton's very interesting comment in a second...