Does anyone here actually believe this will all come to fruition? I don't, given the circus that's currently going on with the proposed Gulf Coast service that everyone ballyhooed a few years ago when Amtrak ran a train all the way over to Jacksonville. Ohio? DOA in my estimation. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm not hopeful for a lot of routes that show on the map. Meanwhile, the Front Range is not connected to Amtrak's transcon route. Go figure.
All of them? I would be pleasantly surprised. But I
do expect some of them to happen, and not just the ones cribbed from state plans in states that actually fund passenger rail (California, Illinois, etc.).
To me, the biggest obstacle is Congress possibly not funding this. While Biden and Buttigieg are vocally pro-Amtrak and Biden has submitted a robust infrastructure bill, Republican leaders in Congress are looking for things to whittle down in that bill. Amtrak
should be considered "traditional" infrastructure, but it's certainly not unheard of for GOP pols to
think believe that billions for highways is fine but millions for Amtrak is a waste, and opposing Amtrak funding
because Biden wants it seems par for the vindictive course of the GOP in the last few years.
On the other hand, this plan seems custom-designed to bring new or improved service to red and purple states. Amtrak seems genuinely worried that it has frequent service in some regions (NEC, California) and little to none in other regions that are up-and-coming population-wise (Southeast, Southwest). But another way of seeing that is blue states having lots of service now and Amtrak planning to expand into red and purple areas. Being able to point to a plan and map that shows increased service in Georgia, or Alabama, or Arizona makes it easier for a Congressman from that state to vote for Amtrak funding.
As to Amtrak's willingness to implement this plan, it's Amtrak's baby, nobody made them do it. As I said above, Amtrak leadership seems worried about being increasingly irrelevant in regions that are increasingly relevant. Except where it cribs from existing state plans to have already-frequent service become even more frequent, this plan seems designed for breadth of service rather than depth, to have Amtrak be a practical option for more people in more places not presently served by Amtrak rather than high frequencies in a couple of new regions.
While I would l like more long-distance service as well as more corridor service, I think the plan's focus on corridors makes sense if the goal is to get more people who
aren't riding Amtrak now to ride. If I'm in Atlanta and I've never ridden Amtrak before, it's a lot easier to get me to board a train for a few hours to Macon, Savannah, Montgomery, Birmingham, Chattanooga, Nashville, Greenville or Charlotte, especially when I have a choice of two or three round-trips, than to get me to take a hypothetical LD train to Chicago. Or if I'm in Denver it's easier to get me to take a train to Colorado Springs or Cheyenne than an LD train to Chicago or the Bay Area. If it's a trip I would otherwise drive, then being able to plink away on my phone, tablet, or laptop, or to drink alcohol, might tip me towards taking the train for roughly the same time if not faster. By contrast, taking an LD train for a day or more when I could fly sounds like a waste of time to a lot of people who don't get lots of time off and would rather spend precious time at their destination rather than traveling. Which isn't to say that some people wouldn't take the LD train, especially if it leaves one's community in the evening and arrives at one's destination in the morning, but corridors are a safer bet to get the most people's butts into Amtrak seats.
Also, nothing in this plan is contrary to more LD trains later on. At the least, many of the new services expressly presume that an existing LD train will be one of the frequencies, so it isn't
anti-LD. Moreover, once you have service Denver-Pueblo, or Chicago-Louisville, or Atlanta-Nashville, the pressure or demand to fill the obvious gaps in the map will grow. And a person who travels by corridor, for whom Amtrak is a known quantity, is more likely to consider Amtrak for a longer trip than someone taking more of a leap into the unknown or unfamiliar. I note regarding gaps in the map that Amtrak is planning to fill a prominent one by connecting Fort Worth and Oklahoma City to the Southwest Chief at Newton, also bringing service to Wichita. Just because it's planning to do it with a corridor train rather than an LD train doesn't mean it wouldn't count.
As to uncooperative states, the no-money-for-the first-couple-years thing seems designed to get around that as much as humanly possible, as I have posted previously. Get service going, a useful service with at least two round-trips so a day trip can be made in either direction. Then hopefully the people who ride the train, the colleges and universities glad to have more car-free students not clogging the campus
and the chambers of commerce and tourism boards in the towns with additional tourism because of the connection to other cities will pressure their legislators to keep the service going. It is, of course, possible that some particularly ideological state legislators will still oppose funding under such circumstances, but IMHO it's significantly harder to "kill" an existing service, especially one that directly serves your district, than to "abort" one that doesn't exist. (See Wisconsin, where Scott Walker was able to block Madison service from starting but kept reassuring business leaders that he had no intention to end or reduce the existing Chicago-Milwaukee service.)
As to the practicalities of working with freight railroads, going for a bunch of 2-4 train corridors rather than a couple of really frequent ones also makes a lot of sense. If a freight railroad is particularly intransigent or greedy, Amtrak isn't overly attached to getting any one corridor running. It can walk away and spend its money where the spending is easier, with more cooperative freight companies and/or on corridors with significant publicly-owned trackage. (The same is true for particularly uncooperative states, actually.) Also, while most freight railroads would rightfully balk at new hourly service without significant public capital funding, if your freight line can't handle 2-4 more round trips a day even with a modest capital investment, maybe Amtrak ain't the problem.
In short, I am cautiously but firmly optimistic about this plan, precisely because Amtrak is being practical and planning to put a lot of medium to large eggs in a lot of different baskets rather than putting one or two ostrich eggs in one or two laundry baskets that can be easily upset.