Amtrak goes straight to STB to restore Gulf Coast service.

[Anderson]

Reality check: to drive it in 8 hours would require an average speed of over 68 mph and exactly no stops for gas, food or bathroom breaks. Plus a HUGE gas tank full when you started. This is ludicrous.

Most of I-10 is signed for 70 MPH, which generally translates to traffic doing about 75-80 these days. Take a modern car, and most folks could do that trip with a single refueling stop (heck, my Eldorado would only require two stops), which could probably be achieved in about ten minutes. The question of food/bathroom stops is a trickier one...I can see a case for just hitting a drive thru when you stop for gas, so the question of the bathroom is the remaining one. Let's say a 15-minute food-gas stop and two five-minute bathroom stops. Manage an average of 72 MPH by mostly running with a traffic flow at 75-80 and that's doable. It might be a bit of a stretch but it is hardly implausible.

 

[MARC Rider]

Reality check: to drive it in 8 hours would require an average speed of over 68 mph and exactly no stops for gas, food or bathroom breaks. Plus a HUGE gas tank full when you started. This is ludicrous.

Correct. I would say, that including stops, this is a 10 hour drive, at least. I used to do those sort of drives, but not anymore, so I would also need to spend the night on the road (in a motel, of course), thus making the trip a lot longer than 15 hours and a lot more expensive than any train fare.

 

[MARC Rider]

Most of I-10 is signed for 70 MPH, which generally translates to traffic doing about 75-80 these days. Take a modern car, and most folks could do that trip with a single refueling stop (heck, my Eldorado would only require two stops), which could probably be achieved in about ten minutes. The question of food/bathroom stops is a trickier one...I can see a case for just hitting a drive thru when you stop for gas, so the question of the bathroom is the remaining one. Let's say a 15-minute food-gas stop and two five-minute bathroom stops. Manage an average of 72 MPH by mostly running with a traffic flow at 75-80 and that's doable. It might be a bit of a stretch but it is hardly implausible.

Just because most of the trip is signposted for 70 mph doesn't mean that you'll be driving at a 70 mph average speed. My long experience with road trips is a 50 mph average speed for freeway driving, which is consistent no matter what the speed limit is. Every car I've ever owned could do a 525 mile drive with only one refueling stop. Some people may be have iron bladders and flexible joints, and can eat while driving, but my body just can't take that; I need to make short stops every 1-2 hours for bathroom breaks and stretch my legs, and I need a real lunch stop where I can eat sitting down at a table, even if it is fast food.

By the way, my freshman calculus textbook introduced a situation where the speed limit was 60 mph, the driver presented a ticket at the tollbooth showing that he did the 60 mile distance in exactly an hour, and the cop in the tollbooth promptly gave the driver a speeding ticket, using the situation to explain the principles of derivatives and integrals. So just because the speed limit is 70 mph doesn't mean that your average speed is 70 mph.

 

[Ryan]

Even if you travel at a more leisurely pace and take 10 hours for the trip...

You're still 5 hours faster than the train.

The thing about a 15 hour trip is also that you're almost certainly going to have one of those endpoints be at a pretty inconvenient time. 0700-2200 is about the best you can do, earlier and departure sucks, later and you're getting off the train at a late hour. Sure, you can make it an overnight trip (the reverse of 1900-1000 would be pretty nice), but now you've screwed over every stop in the middle with an overnight embark/debark.

 

[west point]

We need to think about who will travel on the NOL<> JAX and <> MIA. The coast is the same for the whole Gulf and the Atlantic coast is somewhat rougher. IMO that will preclude travels to another location that mirrors where you live. Granted that the gambling will attract some passengers from eastern Florida. One important city is the capitol Tallahassee.

Interior Alabama travel to Florida is not that easy by car except traveling to I-10 then east. The Crescent - New train to JAX will serve persons especially Meridian and north. Naturally JAX should not be the termini. Either join it to a silver or run separately. Note: Tampa - Sarasota is very strong around ATL. I-75 is a nightmare to drive in Florida. Almost everyone including this poster finds that 75% of time traffic is backed up usually by an accident. Football time at Gainesville ? Don't even ask.

 

[jis]

All of the ridership studies and travel trend studies done so far that I have had access to, shows that given one has to select among many possible routes in the Southeast, to spend the limited new route resources on, apparently Mobile to JAX does not make the cut in any of them. Heck it seems not to make the cut for even a Thruway service at present. Which is kind of sad but apparently true. And specially given that Florida does not want to contribute anything, why should everyone else spend money on a route that is mostly in Florida?

Even the recent FRA Southeast rail corridor Study gives a pass to the general flow between New Orleans and Jacksonville/Orlando etc.

https://c2c45030-16d5-42f3-8f66-b28...d/f32a1d_6e2bd26333cc4562b9edd8cf6e42e7ac.pdf
Interestingly the FRA vision includes NOL - Mobile Pascagula and thence to Montgomery on to Atlanta. And of course it includes Atlanta - Macon - JAX and into the Florida internal network. Conspicuously absent is the link between Pascagoula and JAX or anywhere else in Florida.

And BTW I am a resident of Florida, albeit maybe a somewhat contrarian one on this one.

 

[Anderson]

Even if you travel at a more leisurely pace and take 10 hours for the trip...

You're still 5 hours faster than the train.

The thing about a 15 hour trip is also that you're almost certainly going to have one of those endpoints be at a pretty inconvenient time. 0700-2200 is about the best you can do, earlier and departure sucks, later and you're getting off the train at a late hour. Sure, you can make it an overnight trip (the reverse of 1900-1000 would be pretty nice), but now you've screwed over every stop in the middle with an overnight embark/debark.

Yes, but that "overnight embark/debark" might still be better for connectivity. See also: Every LD Train That Touches Chicago. You can, for example, get a day train CIN-CHI...just not while making any onward connections.

 

[danasgoodstuff]

I guess this shows the limits of looking at a map and thinking 'there should be a train there, there used to be a train there...'. Still, I'd say that there absolutely should be some better connection NOLA to FLa than there is now, no?

 

[zephyr17]

I guess this shows the limits of looking at a map and thinking 'there should be a train there, there used to be a train there...'. Still, I'd say that there absolutely should be some better connection NOLA to FLa than there is now, no?

It was hole in in the initial Amtrak system in 1971 and it is a hole now. The only time it wasn't was the fairly brief period between 1993 and 2005.

It is one of many holes in the Amtrak route map. Florida-Atlanta-Chicago. Any north south service between the City of New Orleans and the West Coast. Los Angeles-Las Vegas-Salt Lake. Portland-Boise-Salt Lake. Minneapolis-Kansas City. St. Louis-Indianapolis-Columbus-Cleveland.

Amtrak's system is skeletal at best. Once you go looking for holes, they're easy to fine.

Roughly 50% of trains were discontinued upon Amtrak's inception. They're still gone.

 

[danasgoodstuff]

It was hole in in the initial Amtrak system in 1971 and it is a hole now. The only time it wasn't was the fairly brief period between 1993 and 2005.

It is one of many holes in the Amtrak route map. Florida-Atlanta-Chicago. Any north south service between the City of New Orleans and the West Coast. Los Angeles-Las Vegas-Salt Lake. Portland-Boise-Salt Lake. Minneapolis-Kansas City. St. Louis-Indianapolis-Columbus-Cleveland.

Amtrak's system is skeletal at best. Once you go looking for holes, they're easy to fine.

Roughly 50% of trains were discontinued upon Amtrak's inception. They're still gone.

And many more were already gone, the've been behind the 8 ball from the get go - but that doesn't answer what should they do now with their recently increased but still very finite resources.

 

[west point]

jis: Thanks for the link. Looks like persons making a multi thousand dollar study came to same conclusions that we did. This is just one more reason for Amtrak to spend fewer limited funds on the ATL <> JAX route and on into Florida and get more bang for the buck. ( passengers ). With the projected passengers Amtrak will need much more rolling stock for the ATL <> JAX <> Florida service. I can see only 3 cars needed for a Gulf Breeze.

https://c2c45030-16d5-42f3-8f66-b28...d/f32a1d_6e2bd26333cc4562b9edd8cf6e42e7ac.pdf

To not neglect the Gulf coast future traffic there is needed to be planned from the interior ATL - Mobile - NOL; Knoxville/Nashville/ ATL <> Pensacola / Panama City / other gulf coast points. . Those locations are very popular around my neck of the woods.

 

[NYP2NFL01]

If you're going to run a new train ATL-JAX, you should probably run that train through to either ORL or MIA (ORL being an inherently bigger market than JAX because of a certain mouse).

Yep and I'm heading down to see that certain "mouse" in September on the Silver Service!

 

[sttom]

The main issue with Amtrak's beginning is that it's manadated to maintain a national network to provide a balanced transportation system, but there is and was absolutely no definition of what that would mean in practice. And to this day there is no discussion on what that would mean as far as service levels, route structure and on going funding would mean. We might lower the 750 mile rule, but that means crap when we haven't given Amtrak a job description beyond a headline and a pittance of funding.

 

[DonNewcomb]

..... Once again some of our posters are just considering end points It is the intermediate stations that are important.....

IMHO this was one of the big problems with the Sunset between Mobile and Tallahassee. It took about 12 hours to get between NOL and Pensacola (a ~4-hour drive) and everything to the east of P'cola happened at Oh-dark-thirty.

 

[George Harris]

Reality check: to drive it in 8 hours would require an average speed of over 68 mph and exactly no stops for gas, food or bathroom breaks. Plus a HUGE gas tank full when you started. This is ludicrous.

(Comparing to old Gulf Wind time of 15 hours.)
I was aware of that. I was simply quoting the mileage and time in the phone app. However, if you do your usual couple gas stops and food stops, you still will be under 12 hours. I find too many people that don't think about this sort of stuff. They will say, "Oh, I can drive it in 8," without recognizing when they say it they will probably allow 10 to 12 for the trip. On the other hand, you do have to/from station times you would need to add to the train time in developing your true trip duration. Regardless, unless Amtrak can get a handle on RELIABILITY, they are probably going to get more "never again" than "can't wait for the next trip" passengers.

 

[neroden]

I don't disagree, jiml, but I still feel strongly that if they aren't going to run the service, they should file official discontinuance on it and put this "suspended" fairy tale to an end.

They might do that after they get service restored to Mobile.

Amtrak's legal filiing with the STB laid out the entire timeline and made it clear that Amtrak has been pushing to get service restored continuously since Katrina, at least as far as Mobile.

Of course, filing discontinuance now on a train that hasn't run in 16 years will probably be noticed in the press and make them look foolish. They should have filed when CSX notified them that line was restored some months after Katrina, since they clearly did not intend to resume service at that point.

They did. It's in Amtrak's filing. CSX interfered.

 

[neroden]

It's a shame there isn't a more northerly arc for a New Orleans-Florida train, rather than the circuitous and slow route via Pensacola. Is it necessary to continue to Jacksonville, rather just heading to central Florida/Orlando? I know some CSX track has been abandoned, but not sure which.

The next set of tracks to the north of the "Pensacola dogleg" is the east-west line which runs Shreveport LA-Jackson MS-Montgomery AL. There is also a Montgomery to Mobile line. Passenger service has been proposed on both lines recently.

While it wouldn't be competitive with driving from New Orleans to Florida, restoring the Jacksonville-Atlanta line would make for an all-rail route shorter than the current detour via North Carolina, and in general the Atlanta-Florida traffic flows are much larger. So this should be the priority rather than restoration of the Florida Panhandle route.

 

[DonNewcomb]

The next set of tracks to the north of the "Pensacola dogleg" is the east-west line which runs Shreveport LA-Jackson MS-Montgomery AL. There is also a Montgomery to Mobile line. Passenger service has been proposed on both lines recently....

It would have been nice to have trackage running southeast from Bay Minette and paralleling I-10 going into and out of P'cola. No need for a station downtown, out by the old University Mall would have been fine. Someone would have had to foresee the need to do this in the '60s. This assuming that a rail crossing at Mobile is just not practical. Shoulda, coulda, woulda.

 

[ShiningTimeStL]

Chicago to Jacksonville? New Orleans to Jacksonville? I think I agree with some of the sentiments here that those won't work, even though they would be nice, especially for "novelty" travelers. Honestly if there was any way at all to get to FLA by train and not have to go to NY to do it, I would be elated. How about Memphis-Birmingham-Jacksonville? That could knock out a few of these problems at once, though I'm also eternally frustrated that St. Louis's connection to CONO is an 11pm bus to Carbondale, and there seems to be zero justification (or money, or willingness) for an I-55 (or literally anywhere else in Missouri, ever) corridor service. If I can get directly to San Diego from St. Louis, why the heck shouldn't I be able to get directly to, say, Tampa?

Also isn't there/wasn't there some luxury bus line from ATL to JAX? That should be a heads up...

 

[joelkfla]

Honestly if there was any way at all to get to FLA by train and not have to go to NY to do it, I would be elated.

You don't need to go thru NY from Chicago to FL, you can go thru Washington.

 

[neroden]

You don't need to go thru NY from Chicago to FL, you can go thru Washington.

Technically you can do it via NC. It's messy though, involving an early-morning transfer in Greensboro NC and spending all day in Raleigh or Cary NC; in the other direction, a quicker transfer at Raleigh or Cary and a very long wait to catch the Crescent after midnight at Greensboro.

I think it ends up taking the same amount of time overall as changing in WAS, just different stopover locations.

 

[user 14106]

Wasn’t a once daily New Orleans to Jacksonville part of the Southern Rail Commissions original plan along with the extra frequency to Mobile only? They did run the test train the whole way. I know I remember reading it a few years back - I think I also remember reading that the Alabama governor’s opposition to the service was a factor in abandoning the once daily east of Mobile - I’d suspect lack of interest in funding from Florida was probably also a factor. While it was originally a long distance route the bottom line is it’s not going to come back without state support from Alabama and Florida - nor is any other new service regardless of distance.

 

[me_little_me]

Technically you can do it via NC. It's messy though, involving an early-morning transfer in Greensboro NC and spending all day in Raleigh or Cary NC; in the other direction, a quicker transfer at Raleigh or Cary and a very long wait to catch the Crescent after midnight at Greensboro.

I think it ends up taking the same amount of time overall as changing in WAS, just different stopover locations.

Chicago to Florida?

Huh! That doesn't make sense. The Crescent goes from NYP to NOL and is next to useless for getting to Florida. CHI-->NOL on the CONO, then overnight, then Crescent to Greensboro, then Piedmont/Carolinian to Raleigh/Cary then Silver to Florida? Is that what you are suggesting?

Am I missing something?

 

[jis]

Wasn’t a once daily New Orleans to Jacksonville part of the Southern Rail Commissions original plan along with the extra frequency to Mobile only? They did run the test train the whole way. I know I remember reading it a few years back - I think I also remember reading that the Alabama governor’s opposition to the service was a factor in abandoning the once daily east of Mobile - I’d suspect lack of interest in funding from Florida was probably also a factor. While it was originally a long distance route the bottom line is it’s not going to come back without state support from Alabama and Florida - nor is any other new service regardless of distance.

It was one of the alternatives in the study. That is one step short of a plan since in these studies, many alternatives are included and a few are eventually chosen for execution. At present only the NOL - Mobile alternative has been chosen for execution. The same study contained an alternative consisting of a Thruway Bus from Mobile to JAX too.

The study was also open ended in terms of time horizon for execution. It is still quite possible that either the Thruway or a daily NOL - ORL (which is what was in the study) could materialize. Politics changes over time. It is too soon to write anything off IMHO.

But the core problem is that there is insufficient ridership projected for the corridor to support a train that will meet Florida DOT's 40% cost recovery criteria within 5 years, and so FDOT has been sitting it out. This was the same reason that killed Silver Palm V1 which was a intra-Florida (JAX - ORL - TPA - MIA) day train after operating for a few years. Incidentally Amtrak in its recent ConnectUS plan is proposing that train again, but not the Mobile - JAX route.

 

[Anthony V]

It was one of the alternatives in the study. That is one step short of a plan since in these studies, many alternatives are included and a few are eventually chosen for execution. At present only the NOL - Mobile alternative has been chosen for execution. The same study contained an alternative consisting of a Thruway Bus from Mobile to JAX too.

The study was also open ended in terms of time horizon for execution. It is still quite possible that either the Thruway or a daily NOL - ORL (which is what was in the study) could materialize. Politics changes over time. It is too soon to write anything off IMHO.

But the core problem is that there is insufficient ridership projected for the corridor to support a train that will meet Florida DOT's 40% cost recovery criteria within 5 years, and so FDOT has been sitting it out. This was the same reason that killed Silver Palm V1 which was a intra-Florida (JAX - ORL - TPA - MIA) day train after operating for a few years. Incidentally Amtrak in its recent ConnectUS plan is proposing that train again, but not the Mobile - JAX route.

Is it possible to amend 49 U.S. Code § 24102 (7) (the law that requires ANY new route, regardless of length, to be state-funded) to include a new Gulf Coast train to Florida in the federally-funded national network? If that can be done, it will make it much easier to get around the lack of funding from Florida problem.