As time goes by and the situation becomes more dire with respect to equipment, the message has been put to Congress louder and louder.
Absolutely true, but it also has to be made clear that the situation is only becoming dire with respect to
bilevel equipment. There are coherent plans for replacing the Amfleet IIs and it'll be easy; and we will soon have 75 Viewliner sleepers (though we really should have more).
So I'll lay out the realistic "disaster" scenario where Congress
doesn't provide the equipment funding. One at a time (though not in this order), these would likely happen:
(1) First of all, the single-level long-distance trains continue operating. With sleepers. As always.
(2) The Capitol Limited becomes single-level -- possibly being rerouted as the Pennsylvanian on that route east of Pittsburgh, depending.
(3) The CONO becomes single-level.
(4) The Texas Eagle becomes single-level and stops having through cars with the Sunset.
(5) The Auto Train becomes single-level.
(6) Some of these trains may become all-coach (the Texas Eagle has startlingly low sleeper utilization, for example), but most would still have sleepers.
The equipment freed up by these changes would be used to keep the remaining Western trains staggering along for several years longer (by retiring the Superliners in the worst condition and using them as parts donors for the remainder).
(7) California, Oregon and Washington would buy equipment for the Coast Starlight while buying their own equipment. If they bought single-level equipment, this might lead it to lose its sleepers; if they bought bilevels, the old sleepers would be attached to the new coaches/cafes. The West Coast is politically aligned in such a way that it won't allow a loss of the train connection from California to Oregon.
(8) If there were *still* no equpment orders forthcoming, the Sunset Limited (the weakest in every way) would probably get the ax to keep the other three Transcons operating. The 15 trainsets required for this could be scraped up for indefinitely long (look at what VIA's done with the Canadian).