I don’t really think we have a disagreement here - I agree with you. An earlier communication/canceling out of the inventory would have increased the chances of those affected getting moved to an open slot. The moment they suspected they wouldn’t be able to make summer consists they should have canceled it out for everyone to give people opportunities to secure an open spot before things sell out - which is what happens when you do it a week out.
I think it may be only a matter of degree that there is any disagreement. Personally, I think they should have seen it coming as early as late last year, and started planning and selecting trains for minimal consists in daily service then. COVID was already a factor, they knew their HR department was short staffed and unable to handle the needed ramp up in personnel, they knew the lead times required to train mechanical, OBS, and T&E personnel, and they knew the Great Resignation was well underway. Also, legal weed, often cited for Amtrak's hiring woes, was a known factor. Heck, it has been legal in Washington since like 2012. They should have made a worst possible case projection, because it was
already a perfect storm that was plainly visible, and set their equipment and staffing plans, which drive inventory, based on that. If they exceeded them, capacity could be added if firmer projections based on actual hiring, training, and equipment recommissioning allowed it. Granted, they might not have been able to get high bucket for a car added only 4 months out, but that is preferable to yanking the rug out from someone paying thousands of dollars, and with major associated plans, some likely non-refundable, at the last minute.
As it stands, my understanding is, for the Builder, they initially set daily service with a full consist to start in May, they pushed it back to July in like late March or early April, then ditched it entirely in May sometime. My contention is they should have allowed for it and reduced inventory by January or February
at the latest because it had become predictable by then. Yes, that would have booted early bookers out of some rooms, but with a lot of lead time, and prevented some other bookings entirely. It would have lead to a lot of wailing and moaning here about high bucket prices and lack of inventory. If Amtrak had a competent IT department, those having been kicked out their rooms by an early inventory reduction, could have been put on some sort of waitlist and offered rooms back at the original fares if inventory was subsequently re-added. Even without that, the right thing to do was to have been conservative in their projections, and therefore inventory, based on the knowledge and facts clearly available early this year.
Where we most heartily agree is the delay in notification, regardless of when the decision to remove inventory was made, is frankly unforgiveable. We talk here often about "Never agains" due to a bad initial Amtrak experience due to extreme lateness, surly OBS, poor food, or all of the above. The current management team has managed to create some "Never agains" without them ever even having stepped onboard a train.