Brightline Trains Florida discussion 2023 Q4

[west point]

Do we know if any Orlando trains either direction are selling out consistently either / or weekdays = weekends?

 

[jis]

City of Stuart's response to Brightline's solicitation for Station Proposals in Treasure Coast:

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/l...r-a-brightline-station-in-stuart/71990920007/

 

[jis]

Brightline is reorganizing its financials in preparation for starting to work in earnest on the Orlando - Tampa extension.

https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/brightline-refinances-ahead-plans-new-tampa-orlando-train

 

[railiner]

City of Stuart's response to Brightline's solicitation for Station Proposals in Treasure Coast:

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/l...r-a-brightline-station-in-stuart/71990920007/

And this is the place that vigorously opposed Brightline existence?

 

[Anderson]

And this is the place that vigorously opposed Brightline existence?

They backed off when Brightline agreed to commit to a station in the region. One of the other counties stuck it out against them until the bitter end.

 

[jis]

They backed off when Brightline agreed to commit to a station in the region. One of the other counties stuck it out against them until the bitter end.

Yes, Martin County (where Stuart is located) settlement said that Brightline has to set up a station in the Treasure Coast, not necessarily Martin County. Possible places are Fort Pierce, Stuart and Vero Beach. Of these Vero Beach has shown no interest. Ft. Pierce is submitting a proposal and Stuart has submitted a proposal. Vero Beach is in Indian River County which opposed it to the bitter end.

 

[west point]

Many years ago Vero had airline service by EAL. Vero very airplane orientated may due to plane manufacturing then (now?)

 

[JamesWhitcombRiley]

Brightline is reorganizing its financials in preparation for starting to work in earnest on the Orlando - Tampa extension.

https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/brightline-refinances-ahead-plans-new-tampa-orlando-train

The article says BL is refinancing its older bonds as well as looking to issue new paper. Might be justified to go full tinfoil hat and suggest the buyers of the existing private bonds, likely including some who helped greenlight stuff BL needed, want a higher rate now that rates have gone up. Or, innocently, BL had to refi to get new credit. The bonds are essentially muni bonds, chartered by the state, and tax-free at the federal level. BL's risk premium above or below an average muni bond may have changed as well.

The total financials may not be on view. The one prospectus I found was sort of paywall locked on a financial site, but I've seen other people talk about it, or about other financial reports, right here. I haven't seen anything about who bought the bonds, which seems normal, even given Florida's strong Sunshine Law.

Theory time: transparency in fully public projects, as advocated by the NYU Transit Costs project, is good for cost control. Transparency in private-public ventures is good for detecting possible corruption.

 

[railiner]

Yes, Martin County (where Stuart is located) settlement said that Brightline has to set up a station in the Treasure Coast, not necessarily Martin County. Possible places are Fort Pearce, Stuart and Vero Beach. Of these Vero Beach has shown no interest. Ft. Pearce is submitting a proposal and Stuart has submitted a proposal. Vero Beach is in Indian River County which opposed it to the bitter end.

Say, Fort Pierce is selected...what are the chances of Tri-Rail extending into Martin County? Or perhaps as far as Jupiter, still in Palm Beach County?

 

[BlackDiamond]

The article says BL is refinancing its older bonds as well as looking to issue new paper. Might be justified to go full tinfoil hat and suggest the buyers of the existing private bonds, likely including some who helped greenlight stuff BL needed, want a higher rate now that rates have gone up. Or, innocently, BL had to refi to get new credit. The bonds are essentially muni bonds, chartered by the state, and tax-free at the federal level. BL's risk premium above or below an average muni bond may have changed as well.

The total financials may not be on view. The one prospectus I found was sort of paywall locked on a financial site, but I've seen other people talk about it, or about other financial reports, right here. I haven't seen anything about who bought the bonds, which seems normal, even given Florida's strong Sunshine Law.

Theory time: transparency in fully public projects, as advocated by the NYU Transit Costs project, is good for cost control. Transparency in private-public ventures is good for detecting possible corruption.

Given the recent Fed rate cuts and the prospect for more, I suspect bond interest rates may go down if they haven't already, which would be good for Brightline, not so good for the investors.

 

[jis]

Apparently Ft. Pierce is coming up with two proposals...

https://www.wptv.com/news/region-st...rt-pierce-brightline-station-at-kings-landing
The City has a different location in their proposal.

Many years ago Vero had airline service by EAL. Vero very airplane orientated may due to plane manufacturing then (now?)

That would make Melbourne very airplane oriented since even now planes are manufactured here. But it is not necessarily hostile to rail as it has participated fully so far in station site selection process run by the Space Coast TPO in collaboration with Brightline.

 

[railiner]

Apparently Ft. Pierce is coming up with two proposals...

https://www.wptv.com/news/region-st...rt-pierce-brightline-station-at-kings-landing
The City has a different location in their proposal.

Very interesting. The cynic in me makes me wonder what "sweetener" will influence Brightline's selection...

 

[joelkfla]

Apparently Ft. Pierce is coming up with two proposals...

https://www.wptv.com/news/region-st...rt-pierce-brightline-station-at-kings-landing
The City has a different location in their proposal.

This looks like an excellent location. It's adjacent to the marina, and just a couple of blocks from downtown Ft. Pierce. It was previously being considered for a station location by Brightline, and the co-development is planned to include retail, parking, and a hotel.

 

[Anderson]

Are any of these plans indicating planned service levels?

 

[railiner]

Are any of these plans indicating planned service levels?

My guess would be that the trains bypassing Boca Raton would also bypass any other added stop. So maybe about half the Orlando trains would stop at the Treasure Coast stop?

 

[Anderson]

This looks like an excellent location. It's adjacent to the marina, and just a couple of blocks from downtown Ft. Pierce. It was previously being considered for a station location by Brightline, and the co-development is planned to include retail, parking, and a hotel.

I think the odds of Brightline saying "Let's do both!" to Ft. Pierce and Stuart are not zero if the costs are pushed low enough. The request has been to do one and they've set the cities against one another, but I don't see a reason that they might not ultimately go for both stops. The deal with the Beeline folks allows one station per county, and Ft. Pierce and Stuart are in separate counties (as are Vero and Cocoa/Melbourne - the latter is happening and the former has occasionally been talked about but isn't on anybody's radar right now). It'd also take a few years to get the stations together, etc., so the broader context of service to Tampa and so on (with the attendant equipment purchases) would also come into play. I'm not even going to /try/ to predict demand levels, but right now Brightline is arguably dealing with at least some supply constraints first.

[As to runtime questions, I suspect that sorting a new bridge in Stuart is good for at least a few minutes.]

 

[Anderson]

https://www.trains.com/trn/news-rev...narrowly-vote-to-accept-bridge-for-rail-line/
So, I'm wondering...bridge or tunnel, how is this going to play with the station? A simple map check puts the station /well/ within the bridge/tunnel.

 

[JamesWhitcombRiley]

https://www.trains.com/trn/news-rev...narrowly-vote-to-accept-bridge-for-rail-line/
So, I'm wondering...bridge or tunnel, how is this going to play with the station? A simple map check puts the station /well/ within the bridge/tunnel.

The station platforms are rebuilt to the west, at the "third level" in either the mid- or high-bridge scenario, and below grade for the tunnel.

In this picture, look at the giant billboard or whatever to the right of the water tower. In front of it is the existing Brightline station. The low white structure to the right of the station is the transit center for local busses (a 1/4-mile walk around fences, grrr...). The existing tracks run between the station and the transit center. Yes, that is a Tri-Rail train, because this is from the Broward Commuter Rail Study (click "Presentations", click "December 13, 2019 New River Crossing Feasibility Study", go to page 19). Direct link: https://browardmpo.org/images/WhatW...sing_2nd_Round_Presentations_MPO_12_13_19.pdf



The following January 25, 2022, diagram is also from the Broward Commuter Rail Study (then click www.browardcommuterrailstudy.com, which goes to https://www.fdot.gov/projects/broward-commuter-rail-south/, click "Documents & Publications", click "Alternatives Public Workshops Exhibits", click "Mid/High Level Bridge Plan"). Direct link: Mid/High Level Bridge Plan - BCR viewing room. Now you're looking south, the opposite of the above picture.

 

[chrsjrcj]

I still think the low level bridge is still the most likely scenario. It is the same height as the other nearby roadway bridges when closed, and also the cheapest which makes it more competitive for Federal funding (the most crucial for this project, unless the State radically changes its funding priorities in the next couple of years).

 

[JamesWhitcombRiley]

I still think the low level bridge is still the most likely scenario. It is the same height as the other nearby roadway bridges when closed, and also the cheapest which makes it more competitive for Federal funding (the most crucial for this project, unless the State radically changes its funding priorities in the next couple of years).

Sounds right. I didn't realize a new low-level bascule bridge (21' closed) would be higher than the current one (4' closed). Downriver bridges are Andrews Ave., 21', and SE 3rd Ave., 16'. And a tunnel, one of only two in Florida. The low-level bascule option would have the greatest impact on the waterfront, however. In addition the later, 2022, clutch of documents, assuming 25', says this about the low-level bascule: "accommodates 90% of all boat traffic but only 20% of the Marina Boats in the closed position."

A new low-level bascule bridge would not affect Brightline at the station, but a west side platform would be built for commuters. The commuter platform would/could be built outside BL security, as in other planned combined stations, and the platform level is lower.

Freight trains would use the old bridge, under any scenario. Each of the new designs has about the same grade, interestingly, I guess.

Now a word about the bus Transit Center. You will find it very rarely mentioned in the planning docs. Having visited it, the demographics are in contrast to Brightline's, but that's a superficial thing that can be misinterpreted. In another thread I've made my petty comment that payment was only by cash onboard that day due to a computer problem, and they were helpful at pointing out the McDonalds where I could get change. No app, no bike shares. The micro neighborhood east of the Transit Center was populated by people apparently living outdoors, in contrast to most of downtown. Locating the commuter platform on the west instead of alongside the Transit Center fence, where BL platforms are, has no detriment if a pedestrian link is never built.

But land-ho, here is a "constraint" in a 2021 doc, refering to the 2019 feasibilty study: "Accommodate east-west premium transit at second level." Not clear what second level means (of the station?), but premium transit is something called PREMO, a proposed commuter bus service. The maps show one route could pass by the station and Transit Center, but it's mainly suburban, if it happens. Likewise a planned trail system called LauderTrail is pretty obscure online, mainly documented by community groups in more prosperous areas. So many happy talk process descriptions. In conclusion, here's a reason EIS reports are forced to include socioeconomic impacts - look at what the locals would do with your hard-earned federal tax dollars.

Lots of docs, some confusion in scopes, a few 404's, but that's par for the course. Plans go away but remain online. I was impressed the custom domain redirected to FDOT instead of going 404. Stale projects online can confuse people who think whatever it is, is still in the works. A revival of the Hilltopper in Virginia occasionally gets noticed, but it's a dodo bird. One funny scope thing is the plan for the New River Bridge is not in the scope of Broward Commuter Rail South, but there it is. Scope changed, online location stayed the same.

From the first PDF above:

 

[Anderson]

With the histrionics in the article from the mayor, I really wonder just how the bridge is supposed to "tear downtown apart" more than...y'know, the existing two-track mainline that has been there since the city was built?

 

[jis]

The Brevard Space Coast TPO is slowly getting kicked into action again. Now there is yet another study to be completed by early 2025. Apparently they did have a productive meeting with Brightline a few weeks back. Florida Today reports on the situation.

With dozens of Brightline passenger trains passing through Central and South Brevard County every day on their trips between Orlando and Miami, demand is building for the passenger rail company to establish a station within Brevard.

But that could be years off.

A major roadblock will be how to pay for a new station in Brevard.

"Stations are not cheap," said Laura Carter, assistant director of the Space Coast Transportation Planning Organization, who added that a station could cost as much as $100 million to build.

....

That $100 million figure is probably a bit of a hyperbole, unless they are planning to build something more than two platforms and a small concourse. Stuart thinks their station would come in under $60 Million. But SCTPO has apprently budgeted $15.5 Million grants from the feds towards design and construction of such a station, and will possibly start looking for PPPs and other sources of funding, including some contribution from Brightline.

Access to the article may require registration, if not subscription:

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/...&utm_term=hero&utm_content=1028FT-E-NLETTER65

 

[Anderson]

The Brevard Space Coast TPO is slowly getting kicked into action again. Now there is yet another study to be completed by early 2025. Apparently they did have a productive meeting with Brightline a few weeks back. Florida Today reports on the situation.



That $100 million figure is probably a bit of a hyperbole, unless they are planning to build something more than two platforms and a small concourse. Stuart thinks their station would come in under $60 Million. But SCTPO has apprently budgeted $15.5 Million grants from the feds towards design and construction of such a station, and will possibly start looking for PPPs and other sources of funding, including some contribution from Brightline.

Access to the article may require registration, if not subscription:

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/...&utm_term=hero&utm_content=1028FT-E-NLETTER65

I'm confused - I thought Brightline was already moving towards a station in Cocoa on their own? That's the impression I've gotten from elsewhere, at least...

 

[jis]

I'm confused - I thought Brightline was already moving towards a station in Cocoa on their own? That's the impression I've gotten from elsewhere, at least...

Brightline wanted the station at one location. TPO wants it at a slightly different location. So they are now arguing about that. Meanwhile there has been little progress in lining up funding beyond the $15.5 Million set aside by the TPO. Also they need a more concrete budget estimate which requires actually settling on a location and finalizing a design. The TPO funding is enough to take these steps but not to actually construct anything apparently.Brevard Council still has a semi-rural outlook and even though they did not oppose Brightline, actually getting off of building more roads and making progress on the railroad side appears to be still a bit out of their intellectual reach

 

[Anderson]

So, one thing I'd almost forgotten...

Whatever happened to the plans to run over to the port in Miami? I presume they've been dropped (the track configuration made it never really make sense outside of a charter service) but I never saw it openly get dropped. Did it just evaporate when the Virgin thing fell apart/with the pandemic?