Brightline Trains Florida discussion 2025

[crescent-zephyr]

It would be nice if they could/would add the JAX extension sooner. Just from first glance, it doesn't seem like there would be near as much track building and/or upgrading to do this.

Brightline is kind of inventing their own way to run a railroad - and it's not cheap. The only stations they build are large and complex. If they could just build some simple platforms Jacksonville would be a no-brainer to me as well.

Between the wraps on the cars, the expensive tickets, extra charge to pick a seat, and some strange experiences on board the train (a combination of customer service and loud / rude fellow passengers) - I'm pretty much done with cheering Brightline on.

 

[bonzoesc]

How much of the FEC north of Cocoa is double-tracked, and how quick was the track work between Palm Beach and Cocoa compared to between Cocoa and MCO?

I expect the Tampa extension's happening first because the Tampa metro area has twice the population as Jacksonville, and it's a shorter run from an existing Brightline station. I seem to remember it being mostly new separated trackage down highways, instead of 180 miles of grade crossings.

 

[west point]

My concern is Brightline is going to need even more train sets and passenger cars. The train sets for Tampa and more especially if JAX ever starts. Right now, based on deliveries of Siemens equipment it would take several years delay in getting that equipment based on the present orders Siemens has. When construction of the building is complete the Siemens NC factory may concentrate on the Airo deliveries first.

How quickly the NC factory can get, and train enough skilled workers will also be a time of passenger equipment construction metric.

 

[Anderson]

I think the "missing" plus about adding JAX is that if you run those trains down to MIA, you get extra capacity in South Florida. The complication is that instead of the line being A-B-C-D, you now have two lines in use and have to facilitate transfers or run three train routings (or both).

 

[bonzoesc]

I think the "missing" plus about adding JAX is that if you run those trains down to MIA, you get extra capacity in South Florida. The complication is that instead of the line being A-B-C-D, you now have two lines in use and have to facilitate transfers or run three train routings (or both).

And the flipmode of that is it means those trains aren't running on the demonstrably viable Orlando-SoFlo route, after the expense of updating the trackage and building a Jacksonville station. The SoFlo capacity problems will get addressed with the new cars that're already on order, and a hypothetical FEC corridor Tri-Rail service that Brightline wouldn't have to find another billion dollars for.

 

[jis]

I think it is safe to say that JAX build out won't happen until Brightine can convince itself that the capital sunk for instituting it will produce adequate returns to pay off the loan for it. This makes it almost certain that it won’t happen before Tampa, as Brightline has indicated already.

 

[Anderson]

And the flipmode of that is it means those trains aren't running on the demonstrably viable Orlando-SoFlo route, after the expense of updating the trackage and building a Jacksonville station. The SoFlo capacity problems will get addressed with the new cars that're already on order, and a hypothetical FEC corridor Tri-Rail service that Brightline wouldn't have to find another billion dollars for.

I mean, I presume that if they extended service to JAX they would also purchase additional equipment...but that's probably another half-billion dollars or more (I presume you would need at least a dozen sets plus spares for hourly service MIA-JAX).

Having said that, I'd probably extend to Disney Springs first, and JAX vs TPA becomes a question of approval and logistics. But Disney Springs is also going to require a supplemental equipment order (probably at least 2 sets), as will Tampa (probably another 2-4), and Brightline can probably defend scaling that up a bit to get a few more sets for extra peak hour service (and, you know, being able to pretend to try and meet their ridership projections).

 

[BlackDiamond]

Of course, it would also be nice if they could have two routes to JAX, the one Amtrak now uses and the one through Ocala and Waldo.

I can't imagine CSX would be receptive to passenger trains on its busy S Line.

 

[Anderson]

My concern is Brightline is going to need even more train sets and passenger cars. The train sets for Tampa and more especially if JAX ever starts. Right now, based on deliveries of Siemens equipment it would take several years delay in getting that equipment based on the present orders Siemens has. When construction of the building is complete the Siemens NC factory may concentrate on the Airo deliveries first.

How quickly the NC factory can get, and train enough skilled workers will also be a time of passenger equipment construction metric.

So, from what I recall working up a few years back, Tampa needs about another 5 sets: Tampa is about 90 miles from MCO, so you'd need 3-4 sets to make service work (4 seems like the better number to work with), and then I presumed an extra spare/protect set. This depends a bit on whether Brightline runs trains through (MIA-MCO-TPA) or forces a change at MCO. I suspect they would run most trains through. The wrinkle is that when you look at the old HSR plans, it was expected that you'd essentially run one set of trains MCO-TPA and the other set Disney-MIA, using the overlap to deal with the flood of probable demand in the Orlando area.

JAX is trickier to calculate - I'd use a placeholder of a six-hour runtime to Miami (it could conceivably end up a bit closer to five hours depending on various questions about speed, etc., but six hours seems like a safe bet) and three hours to MCO. I'd suggest that Brightline has three options of what to do here - they could send all of those trains to Miami (this would require about a dozen sets), all of the trains to Orlando (6-7 sets, and add a few if you want to run through to Tampa), or split service (probably around 10 sets, depending on the mix). I believe that my original calculations came out to about 25 sets, but it assumed:
-Hourly Miami-Orlando-Tampa (15 sets)
-Every-other-hour Miami-Jacksonville (6 sets)
-Supplemental trains in South Florida for twice-hourly service south of West Palm (2-3 sets)
-One additional miscellaneous shop/spare set (partly due to scaling, partly due to all the grade crossing incidents).

Re-working that for hourly JAX-MCO service would yield about the same train count (though you'd need to add 2-3 more sets in South Florida to get to twice-hourly down there), and doing split-service would probably require about four sets JAX-MCO and six sets JAX-MIA (so about 27 sets, presuming you don't go to Tampa with the Jacksonville sets).

 

[Anderson]

I can't imagine CSX would be receptive to passenger trains on its busy S Line.

Especially since IIRC part of the deal with selling a chunk of the A-Line to SunRail was that passenger trains wouldn't be coming back on the S-Line.

 

[Cal H]

I did not know that JAX was in the cards - I would love to see that happen in my lifetime...
Without the knowledge of y'all, but only looking at the map of Florida - what about a JAX-MCO-TPA run without changing the MCO-MIA makeup? It would of course mean a transfer for passengers wanting to go from MIA to JAX or TPA, but is that such a terrible thing?

 

[cirdan]

Brightline could also get some revenue by opening up Miami Central Station to Amtrak's two trains a day. They also need more Tri-Rail trains as well. If the funding can be found, extending service to Tampa and even St. Petersburg (the track is still mostly there) would really kick ridership up. They have a great product that people like and they tell others about it. I'm impressed.

I don't think the platform length is sufficient.

Interestingly, unpainted aircraft can actually be slower than painted. The paint can smooth the surface, filling in small joints, gaps, under rivet heads, etc. allowing the aircraft to fly further on the same amount of fuel than an unpainted one, and that can more than offset the added weight of the paint.

http://www.wwiiaircraftperformance.org/B-17/B-17G_42-97656_Eng-47-1722-A.pdf

This may be true when the wrap is new. But what happens when wraps degrade and form tears and tiny bits start detaching? Being up high in the sky, airplanes are exposed to much more UV than trains or buses. I expect this would increase drag? Paint is probably much more long lasting than wraps.

 

[Anderson]

I did not know that JAX was in the cards - I would love to see that happen in my lifetime...
Without the knowledge of y'all, but only looking at the map of Florida - what about a JAX-MCO-TPA run without changing the MCO-MIA makeup? It would of course mean a transfer for passengers wanting to go from MIA to JAX or TPA, but is that such a terrible thing?

AAF set up an LLC for JAX some years ago (so as to potentially buffer investors in that segment from stuff elsewhere in their system):

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/business/2014/06/24/jacksonville-next-stop-for-all/6828921007/

 

[west point]

JAX section transferring to / from MIA could either change trains at MCO or at a future Cocoa station if built. TPA connect at MCO

 

[Cal H]

AAF set up an LLC for JAX some years ago (so as to potentially buffer investors in that segment from stuff elsewhere in their system):

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/business/2014/06/24/jacksonville-next-stop-for-all/6828921007/

As I said, I lack the in-depth knowledge of y'all. How are AAF & Brightline connected? And who is AAF? The article mentions the parent company is "Florida East Coast Industries"... just trying to follow the path along the pretzel - or maybe mobius strip!

 

[bonzoesc]

As I said, I lack the in-depth knowledge of y'all. How are AAF & Brightline connected? And who is AAF? The article mentions the parent company is "Florida East Coast Industries"... just trying to follow the path along the pretzel - or maybe mobius strip!

All Aboard Florida is basically the original name.

 

[jis]

As I said, I lack the in-depth knowledge of y'all. How are AAF & Brightline connected? And who is AAF? The article mentions the parent company is "Florida East Coast Industries"... just trying to follow the path along the pretzel - or maybe mobius strip!

IIRC Brightline was a DBA of AAF originally. I don’t know if they have changed the name of AAF since then.

 

[bonzoesc]

IIRC Brightline was a DBA of AAF originally. I don’t know if they have changed the name of AAF since then.

Palm Beach County lists the downtown station and the workshop as owned by "BRIGHTLINE TRAINS FLORIDA LLC", and Sunbiz lists a name change filed June 2018.

 

[JamesWhitcombRiley]

As I said, I lack the in-depth knowledge of y'all. How are AAF & Brightline connected? And who is AAF? The article mentions the parent company is "Florida East Coast Industries"... just trying to follow the path along the pretzel - or maybe mobius strip!

The old Henry Flagler system that built all those resort hotels and towns in South Florida eventually split into the FEC Railroad and FEC Industries. FECR is owned by a Mexican company and gets along with FECI/Brightline pretty well, it seems. FECI has real estate, maybe some industry, and Brightline (leasing track rights from FECR and a right-of-way from a state highway authority). The major owner was Softbank in Japan via Fortress (private equity), but is now a sovereign fund in Abu Dhabi that also has an airline I think. The management team from Fortress still runs Brightline, and was started by people who know how to run a railroad.

Flagler made money on land, and people think Brightline can run a small loss as long as the real estate development works out. Right? Land is limited in South Florida by the Everglades. The families that founded Miami were both from Cleveland. Where it's cold in the winter! Julia Tuttle sent Henry Flagler an orange blossom when the groves around Orlando froze to entice him to develop South Florida. That worked out, but they didn't end up planting many orange groves in Miami and environs. The Flagler hotel in Miami though was the only place it was legal to drink.

 

[UserNameRequired]

I don’t follow Brightline too much, but the deadline to sign up for the Brightline Class Action is Feb. 26th if you think you were affected:

https://brightlinedatasecuritysettlement.com/

“The Action alleges that on or about January 30, 2023, there was unauthorized access to or acquisition of the Private Information of Plaintiffs and approximately one million individuals as a result of unauthorized access to the Fortra GoAnywhere MFT application that Brightline used.”

 

[joelkfla]

Orlando Sentinel:

"The driver of a Delray Beach fire truck that crashed with a Brightline train in December received a noncriminal traffic citation following a recently completed Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office investigation.

"The report concludes that, though the fire truck was still responding to an emergency, Wyatt failed to use 'due care' in that he 'did not identify the oncoming Brightline train as he drove V-1 onto its path.'”

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/202...h-in-delray-beach/?share=numboieiseittttonir2

 

[cirdan]

Orlando Sentinel:

"The driver of a Delray Beach fire truck that crashed with a Brightline train in December received a noncriminal traffic citation following a recently completed Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office investigation.

"The report concludes that, though the fire truck was still responding to an emergency, Wyatt failed to use 'due care' in that he 'did not identify the oncoming Brightline train as he drove V-1 onto its path.'”

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/202...h-in-delray-beach/?share=numboieiseittttonir2

Maybe this is off topic, but we often complain these days that journalism is dead and that journalists are too uncritical and don't do their job and get facts wrong or twisted.

Well, this is a very well written article, that dives down and explains details and addresses all sorts of questions that the reader may have.

Despite the sad topic of the article, it was refreshing to read this.

 

[Anderson]

I've got the January data. I'll add commentary in a second post, but first, the raw data! As usual, it's Short Distance, Long Distance, then Combined.

2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                   
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   125,475     2.6         $2,588,549    $20.72    $20.63
2023    October     126,059     3.1         $3,092,227    $24.59    $24.53
2023    November    112,423     2.9         $2,915,128    $25.79    $25.93
2023    December    121,386     3.5         $3,470,426    $28.83    $28.59

2023                1,747,762   39.0       $38,992,570    $22.31    $22.31

2024    January     113,560     3.2         $3,246,680    $28.18    $28.59
2024    February    114,264     3.3                                 $28.93
2024    March       124,379     4.2                                 $33.96
2024    April       103,737     3.5                                 $33.51
2024    May          95,965     2.9                                 $30.62
2024    June         84,062     2.4                                 $28.03
2024    July         76,907     2.1                                 $27.08
2024    August       71,507     2.0                                 $27.76
2024    September    75,230     1.9                                 $25.88
2024    October      83,514     2.3                                 $27.60
2024    November     90,624     2.5                                 $27.10
2024    December    101,756     3.0                                 $29.42

2024              1,135,505    33.3                                 $29.34

2025    January     103,846     2.8                                 $26.88

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2023    September    17,578      1.5         $1,479,364   $85.33    $84.16  
2023    October      79,686      7.3         $7,314,378   $91.61    $91.79
2023    November     93,184      8.4         $8,360,468   $90.14    $89.72
2023    December    115,683      9.0         $8,970,060   $77.80    $77.54

2023                306,131     26.1        $26,125,220   $85.26    $85.34

2024    January     122,703      9.1         $9,126,649   $74.16    $74.38    
2024    February    113,874      9.2                                $80.54
2024    March       133,928     10.7                                $80.25
2024    April       119,380      8.8                                $74.13
2024    May         135,918      9.6                                $70.81
2024    June        139,307      9.9                                $71.46
2024    July        143,488      9.9                                $69.33
2024    August      136,555      9.3                                $68.04
2024    September   130,249      9.4                                $71.85
2024    October     134,221      9.9                                $73.98
2024    November    155,939     11.3                                $72.80
2024    December    162,201     11.8                                $72.74

2024              1,628,007    119.2                                $73.20

2025    January     162,500     10.9                                $67.36

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                   
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   143,053     4.1         $4,068,427    $28.66    $28.44    5.8     $40.54
2023    October     205,745    10.4        $10,406,582    $50.55    $50.58   12.8     $62.21
2023    November    205,607    11.3        $11,275,488    $54.96    $54.84   13.9     $67.60
2023    December    237,069    12.4        $12,441,381    $52.31    $52.48   16.7     $70.44

2023              2,053,893    65.1        $65,108,408    $31.70    $31.70   87.7     $42.70

2024    January     236,263    12.4        $12,373,093    $52.48    $52.37   15.3     $64.76
2024    February    228,138    12.5                                 $54.69   15.5
2024    March       258,307    15.0                                 $57.96   18.1
2024    April       223,117    12.3                                 $55.25   15.2
2024    May         231,883    12.6                                 $54.18   15.4
2024    June        223,369    12.3                                 $55.11   15.2
2024    July        220,395    12.0                                 $54.59   14.8
2024    August      208,062    11.3                                 $54.20   14.0
2024    September   205,479    11.3                                 $55.02   14.1
2024    October     217,735    12.2                                 $56.19   15.1
2024    November    246,563    13.8                                 $56.00   16.9
2024    December    264,201    14.8                                 $56.05   18.2
       
2024              2,763,512   152.5                                 $55.18  187.9
       
2025    January     266,346    13.7                                 $51.48   16.9

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

 

[Anderson]

Analysis of Brightline's January 2025 Results:

So, the best news is that there was a small increase in ridership in January overall vs December 2024 (and a moderate bump vs January 2023). January 2022 and January 2023 both saw significant declines vs the previous Decembers, and January 2024 saw a small decline. Notably, December 2023 was when service was still getting fully set up between Orlando and Miami - I forget whether they went to daily service early in December or if it was a little bit earlier, but I think it was early December 2023. The net swing isn't big for 2024/5 vs 2023/4, but it's there.

Brightline indicates that they're currently taking delivery of the sixth car(s) for the trains, but I don't think those are in service. The phrasing is that they've taken delivery as of December (they could still potentially have been testing them; the trains I took in January were still just five cars IIRC), but I haven't seen them in service yet...but I also live in VA, not FL, so I can't check every day...and my hotel room last night didn't overlook the tracks. This would help explain the downwards drift in revenue if those are in service (since that's a Smart car, not a Premium car, so it shifts the ridership mix towards the lower fare Smart tickets). I would regard the downward slide of ticket prices as a bad sign if not for the added seats, since I'd be worried that Brightline was "buying" ridership counts, since the hit vs December was not trivial for the LD segment.

One bright side was the continuing modest revival in short distance traffic - Brightline indicates that they have had to constrict ridership on the southern segment, but it looks like this constriction is declining. Admittedly, it's going to take a while to rebuild the ridership that was lost as a result of that, but short-haul ridership is back up almost 50% since it bottomed out over the summer. Likewise, overall ridership is up by about 25% since mid-summer 2024 (when there was a trough) with the gains being roughly evenly split between short-haul and long-haul ridership, so it looks like the load factors Brightline was posting in the summer are roughly holding with added seats (again, depending on if the sixth car is being deployed yet or not). Yield is just being a pain - I think RASM is probably a bit lower now than it was last summer, though I can't be sure without data that Brightline doesn't seem to be posting just yet.

Brightline still isn't generating quite the ridership/revenue it needs, but I think it is on (generally) the right track. I'm going to reserve judgment, though - there's always a chance that getting a second Premium car drives fares down instead of up (by "flooding" the market with additional lower-fare Premium seats), though I suspect that the relative volume and some competent revenue management should avoid that.