Budget Axe

[AutoTrDvr]

Saw this AP News Article this morning. It talks about the "automatic budget cuts" that will go into effect since no deal has been reached by congress, as of yet. Obviously, defense contractors etc., will be cut, but so will a bunch of other domestic programs.

How is Amtrak faring in this? Does it stand to take any significant hit?

 

[Tracktwentynine]

I don't know specifics about Amtrak. However, it's important to note that the budget axe (also called "sequestration") will only fall if Congress and the President can't come to an agreement before December 31.

Because of the General Election on November 6, an agreement will not be reached before then. It's just too risky for the politicos on either side. That means that one of three things will happen sometime after November 6.

1. Congress blinks, and moves the deadline to some point later than December 31.

2. Congress gets their act together and decides on a budget that both parties can agree to.

3. Congress continues to act like a group of petulant children, the budget axe falls, and the economy goes into another deep recession.

It's too early to tell what will happen. The budget axe is not certain to fall, but given the track record of the 112th Congress, I think there's a mild chance that it will happen.

You can read more about it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff

 

[Devil's Advocate]

We're about to find out what happens when you elect a bunch of zero tolerance ideologues with no interest in honest compromise.

 

[Shanghai]

I don't know specifics about Amtrak. However, it's important to note that the budget axe (also called "sequestration") will only fall if Congress and the President can't come to an agreement before December 31.

Because of the General Election on November 6, an agreement will not be reached before then. It's just too risky for the politicos on either side. That means that one of three things will happen sometime after November 6.

1. Congress blinks, and moves the deadline to some point later than December 31.

2. Congress gets their act together and decides on a budget that both parties can agree to.

3. Congress continues to act like a group of petulant children, the budget axe falls, and the economy goes into another deep recession.

It's too early to tell what will happen. The budget axe is not certain to fall, but given the track record of the 112th Congress, I think there's a mild chance that it will happen.

You can read more about it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff

I agree with TrackTwentyNine's comments, but I think to be more precise, points 2 & 3 should

be amended to begin with the Senate rather than Congress. The House has done its job and there

are 34 bills awaiting the Senate Majority Leader to bring the bills to the Senate floor.

It might also be helpful is our President would stay on his job and work with Congress.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

I agree with TrackTwentyNine's comments, but I think to be more precise, points 2 & 3 should be amended to begin with the Senate rather than Congress. The House has done its job and there are 34 bills awaiting the Senate Majority Leader to bring the bills to the Senate floor. It might also be helpful is our President would stay on his job and work with Congress.

I agree that the House is doing an excellent job laying the groundwork for privatizing Amtrak. It's very unfortunate that the Senate and the Executive branch still aren't cooperating with the House's efforts to dismantle what's left of our passenger rail system in favor of other modes of transportation.

 

[Shanghai]

I agree with TrackTwentyNine's comments, but I think to be more precise, points 2 & 3 should be amended to begin with the Senate rather than Congress. The House has done its job and there are 34 bills awaiting the Senate Majority Leader to bring the bills to the Senate floor. It might also be helpful is our President would stay on his job and work with Congress.

I agree that the House is doing an excellent job laying the groundwork for privatizing and dismantling Amtrak. It's very unfortunate that the Senate and the Executive branch still aren't cooperating with the House's efforts to dismantle what's left of our passenger rail system in favor of other modes of transportation.

What has the House passed to dismantle Amtrak? What are the Senate and Executive branch not doing that is unfortunate?

 

[Ocala Mike]

The House has done its job and there

are 34 bills awaiting the Senate Majority Leader to bring the bills to the Senate floor.

It might also be helpful is our President would stay on his job and work with Congress.

Are you serious? Texas Sunset said it best a couple of posts ago; the uncompromising ideologues are all in the House.

Also, I think you're missing the sarcasm in Texas Sunset's posts.

 

[Anderson]

I don't know specifics about Amtrak. However, it's important to note that the budget axe (also called "sequestration") will only fall if Congress and the President can't come to an agreement before December 31.

Because of the General Election on November 6, an agreement will not be reached before then. It's just too risky for the politicos on either side. That means that one of three things will happen sometime after November 6.

1. Congress blinks, and moves the deadline to some point later than December 31.

2. Congress gets their act together and decides on a budget that both parties can agree to.

3. Congress continues to act like a group of petulant children, the budget axe falls, and the economy goes into another deep recession.

It's too early to tell what will happen. The budget axe is not certain to fall, but given the track record of the 112th Congress, I think there's a mild chance that it will happen.

You can read more about it here: http://en.wikipedia....es_fiscal_cliff

I agree with TrackTwentyNine's comments, but I think to be more precise, points 2 & 3 should

be amended to begin with the Senate rather than Congress. The House has done its job and there

are 34 bills awaiting the Senate Majority Leader to bring the bills to the Senate floor.

It might also be helpful is our President would stay on his job and work with Congress.

Well, the sad thing here is that I suspect we can go all day about who is to blame...for example, one can probably point out more or less equivalent legislative shoot-downs by each house. The heart of the problem is that everybody loaded up a bunch of deadlines for varying reasons (including the seemingly vain hope that forcing the deadline and putting an unpalatable default option on the table would spur action), and now we're facing a nasty blowup.

I think there's a second operative question here, too: If a new Congress is elected that is heavy to either party and the "new guys" can get a deal together but can't implement it for a few weeks after the deadline and the old Congress won't budge, what happens during "limbo"?

 

[JoeBas]

Lolz, new congress, that's funny...

 

[afigg]

I think there's a second operative question here, too: If a new Congress is elected that is heavy to either party and the "new guys" can get a deal together but can't implement it for a few weeks after the deadline and the old Congress won't budge, what happens during "limbo"?

How the looming multiple deadlines of December 31 will play out is anyone's guess. The budget sequestrations are not that big a deal in the immediate term because the $1.2 trillion is spread over 10 years. What the budget cuts do is create uncertainty for the federal agencies in planning and funding for grants, contract awards, etc. But federal agencies have gotten a lot of experience in dealing with short term budget uncertainties in recent years. What sequestration would mean for Amtrak, really don't know, but Amtrak as a private company with its own revenue stream has a cash reserve which would allow it to keep everything running for a while if there is no deal in Congress.

The big problem is the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Clearly they will not all permanently expire - although that would make a substantial reduction in the budget deficit. But the whole mess creates a lot of uncertainty in the private sector.

Back to your question, the new House and the newly or re-elected Senators would get sworn in on January 3. If the House returns to Democratic control with a narrow majority and Dems maintain control of the Senate & White House, there may be no ground to reach an agreement in the lame duck session, even on a temporary extension, so everything expires on December 31. Then the Democrats would try to hammer out a deal with the Senate Republicans who will still be in position to block everything and pass a bill, maybe late January, retroactively setting the tax rates and budget back to January 1.

If the Republicans retain a narrow control of the House and Obama is re-elected, then there may be a deal in December after much hue and cry.

If Romney & Ryan are elected, the Republicans gain control of the Senate, retain control of the House, then Amtrak's situation is much more perilous and complicated than a mere budget sequestration. In that event, Amtrak's LD trains would be at risk of getting shut down and probably lose some state supported routes as well.

 

[dlagrua]

Fact is that the federal government has run out of money and unless the next administration can do things to rebuild our lost industrial base and put the American worker back to work, I believe that we will see across the board cuts in every government department and service. If Americans all had a job and employment was high, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

 

[Anderson]

I think there's a second operative question here, too: If a new Congress is elected that is heavy to either party and the "new guys" can get a deal together but can't implement it for a few weeks after the deadline and the old Congress won't budge, what happens during "limbo"?

How the looming multiple deadlines of December 31 will play out is anyone's guess. The budget sequestrations are not that big a deal in the immediate term because the $1.2 trillion is spread over 10 years. What the budget cuts do is create uncertainty for the federal agencies in planning and funding for grants, contract awards, etc. But federal agencies have gotten a lot of experience in dealing with short term budget uncertainties in recent years. What sequestration would mean for Amtrak, really don't know, but Amtrak as a private company with its own revenue stream has a cash reserve which would allow it to keep everything running for a while if there is no deal in Congress.

The big problem is the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Clearly they will not all permanently expire - although that would make a substantial reduction in the budget deficit. But the whole mess creates a lot of uncertainty in the private sector.

Back to your question, the new House and the newly or re-elected Senators would get sworn in on January 3. If the House returns to Democratic control with a narrow majority and Dems maintain control of the Senate & White House, there may be no ground to reach an agreement in the lame duck session, even on a temporary extension, so everything expires on December 31. Then the Democrats would try to hammer out a deal with the Senate Republicans who will still be in position to block everything and pass a bill, maybe late January, retroactively setting the tax rates and budget back to January 1.

If the Republicans retain a narrow control of the House and Obama is re-elected, then there may be a deal in December after much hue and cry.

If Romney & Ryan are elected, the Republicans gain control of the Senate, retain control of the House, then Amtrak's situation is much more perilous and complicated than a mere budget sequestration. In that event, Amtrak's LD trains would be at risk of getting shut down and probably lose some state supported routes as well.

I can't help but wonder about the other two plausible scenarios: Romney/Ryan get in but the GOP fails in the Senate (not horridly unlikely right now) or the GOP gets control of the Senate but Obama gets another term.

 

[Ryan]

I agree with TrackTwentyNine's comments, but I think to be more precise, points 2 & 3 should

be amended to begin with the Senate rather than Congress. The House has done its job and there

are 34 bills awaiting the Senate Majority Leader to bring the bills to the Senate floor.

It might also be helpful is our President would stay on his job and work with Congress.

The President's job is to sign the bills. He can't sign what doesn't make it to his desk.

The House's job is to work with the Senate and actually work together pass bills that can make it through the Senate and be signed by the President, a job they have failed at miserably. Instead as Texas Sunset said, they have chosen ideology over what's best for the country (see Senator McConnell's comments about the GOP's number 1 job is to prevent a second Obama term).

Fact is that the federal government has run out of money and unless the next administration can do things to rebuild our lost industrial base

Industrial output is doing just fine. The "problem" is our increased productivity means that our industrial base can do more work with less workers:

I can't help but wonder about the other two plausible scenarios: Romney/Ryan get in

This must be some new definition of "plausible" that I'm not familiar with.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

I can't help but wonder about the other two plausible scenarios: Romney/Ryan get in but the GOP fails in the Senate (not horridly unlikely right now) or the GOP gets control of the Senate but Obama gets another term.

1. Romney was by many accounts a moderate toward mass transit while working as governor of Massachusetts. However, once Romney began running for president he seems to have changed his tune and taken a much harder line toward mass transit and infrastructure funding including passenger rail. So far as I can tell Paul Ryan is about as anti-Amtrak as they come. I'd be hard pressed to name anyone who would be more inclined to strangle Amtrak funding than Paul Ryan.

2. If the GOP regains control the Senate I would initially expect several minority filibusters early and often, although historically the number of filibusters typically decrease substantially when the GOP represents the majority. Over time I would expect the GOP to eventually modify or even remove the filibuster option through a procedural vote. At that point they would presumably be able to openly challenge Obama without much in the way of further obstruction. It is hard to say what Obama would do at that point. Perhaps he would choose to let Congress bring everything to a screeching halt. Or he might eventually acquiesce to their demands after a protracted battle and clear the path toward dismantling our passenger rail services.

 

[AutoTrDvr]

Saw this AP News Article this morning. It talks about the "automatic budget cuts" that will go into effect since no deal has been reached by congress, as of yet. Obviously, defense contractors etc., will be cut, but so will a bunch of other domestic programs.

How is Amtrak faring in this? Does it stand to take any significant hit?

Thanks all! I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens in Nov. before we can know for sure. :unsure: