California State Rail Plan
(Link: http://californiastaterailplan.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/CSRP_Public-Draft_Main_2013-02-09.pdf )
As with almost any plan, there's a mixed bag to comment on. I won't get into the nitty gritty of allocations for new signals and what-have-you. CAHSR's timetable is much improved, assuming that it can be kept to, and that's probably the best part of the plan...but CAHSR also accounts for the worst element I've seen in a rail plan in a long time, and possibly the worst element in a rail plan since the late 1960s, period.
CAHSR
The best part of this plan is moving the connection from the San Fernando Valley to Bakersfield up to '21 (and the whole plan up to '29). Aside from compressing the overall timetable by a few years, assuming that the accelerated schedule can be held to, moving the connection from the LA area to the Central Valley up is probably the best thing that could be planned for this.
However, the plan to terminate the service in the San Fernando Valley and use Surfliners or Metrolink to connect to LAUS is probably the single worst idea I've seen put forward in a serious HSR plan in quite some time. It ranks up there with the old NYC request to cut intercity trains back to Croton or New Haven wanting to cut service back to Route 128. All I can say is "God, how dumb can you be?" Ideally, they'd do a run-through as far as Anaheim, but at least getting to LAUS would allow more one-seat rides and improve Metrolink connectivity dramatically (as well as connecting with other Amtrak services). Even if they couldn't run the super-high-speed trains over the whole route, just running the SJs over the mountains would seem to be a preferable shorter-term alternative. Not pretty, but connectivity matters.
I do consider this to be an improvement since it at least gets the buses out of the picture sooner, which is a must. I just wish they'd get the HSR trains into LAUS so you could /totally/ replace the link with a transfer at Bakersfield.
I'm reserving comment on the longer-range plans since the form that will take is going to be an open question. I think CAHSR will probably turn an operating profit, but until those trains get extended either downtown (or to Anaheim, I would hope, because of the marketing opportunities there) I think the effects are going to be limited.
Other Corridors
In the short run, the big improvements here are as follows:
-The Coast Daylight is the big one right now, since it gets a direct Bay Area-LAX connection (and restores direct service to the Peninsula).
--Even more interesting is the Lark coming back. Looking at the longer-term plans, CA wants to restore overnight SF-LA service. It will likely carry the (highly ironic, especially in winter) Coast Daylight name...I'm hoping someone in marketing has the good sense to make it "Coast Overnight" or something like that, but I'm /really/ glad to see this, especially as an adjunct to the HSR and whatnot plans.
--Hopefully, this train will run SF-San Diego. Not that the back-end market is likely to be massive, but getting Anaheim in there makes for some interesting marketing opportunities, to say nothing of connectivity.
-The San Joaquin is also looking at upgrades. God only knows how this will interact with the HSR plans; I can see the SJ getting some real synergies off of cross-platform transfers at Bakersfield, but I can also see some cross-cannibalization of longer trips (not to mention that any service into SF proper is going to eat into the Oakland business).
-Gobs and gobs of other corridors.
--I like the Palm Springs/Indio service for several reasons. First and foremost, it is a good commuter-esque corridor with a growing population, so there's a definite market there. Second, in the long run, if AZ goes ahead with any stuff in the Phoenix area (commuter operations or the Phoenix-Tuscon proposals), I could see the two potentially getting together to run a once/twice daily train on that end of things.
--Extending the Capitol Corridor in both directions (Reno and Salinas) would be nice, but I think UP is going to get in the way for now. From what I can tell about CA, they'll eventually throw in the money sooner or later. Salinas seems likely to happen sooner, mainly because from what I can tell, the folks there gave up on Caltrain.
--Ditto extending the San Joaquins to Redding. That basically covers everything except Redding-Eugene with corridor service (and that particular link can probably remain unfilled for the duration, given the speeds and low population along it). More importantly, it may allow for a few more local stops along the route than the Starlight can (or should) handle, adding to network effects. Hopefully, this would get 2xdaily (at least), and the CC trains should suffice for westward links to the Bay Area; hopefully there will also be a cross-platform option for CAHSR connections on the north end of CAHSR (Merced/Sacramento) as well, since Redding-Bakersfield and /then/ transferring would seem to make for a bit of a long day.
--The Vegas plans are just a mess. The X-Train isn't planned to even come close to daily operation (twice-weekly is going to be dubious, and there's no flexibility to adapt for holiday weekends), but I do think it will be a modest success (with some mixed-mode travel and what have you coming out of it). Desert Xpress/Xpress West is likely to be a morass, the way the HSR plans are developing: You'd take one train to Palmdale, another one into the SF Valley, and then a /third/ into downtown? Or alternatively, you'd take one into Palmdale and then spend two hours on a commuter train? Neither option seems "pretty" for the casual traveler given the amount of transferring.
The commuter plans are a bit of a tangle that I can go through in more depth, but I do like the operations they're looking at north of the Golden Gate. The Metrolink/Coaster plans are also interesting.
One thing I am left wondering is whether there's going to be a long-term effort to integrate Caltrain and the Capitol Corridor with one another?
(Link: http://californiastaterailplan.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/CSRP_Public-Draft_Main_2013-02-09.pdf )
As with almost any plan, there's a mixed bag to comment on. I won't get into the nitty gritty of allocations for new signals and what-have-you. CAHSR's timetable is much improved, assuming that it can be kept to, and that's probably the best part of the plan...but CAHSR also accounts for the worst element I've seen in a rail plan in a long time, and possibly the worst element in a rail plan since the late 1960s, period.
CAHSR
The best part of this plan is moving the connection from the San Fernando Valley to Bakersfield up to '21 (and the whole plan up to '29). Aside from compressing the overall timetable by a few years, assuming that the accelerated schedule can be held to, moving the connection from the LA area to the Central Valley up is probably the best thing that could be planned for this.
However, the plan to terminate the service in the San Fernando Valley and use Surfliners or Metrolink to connect to LAUS is probably the single worst idea I've seen put forward in a serious HSR plan in quite some time. It ranks up there with the old NYC request to cut intercity trains back to Croton or New Haven wanting to cut service back to Route 128. All I can say is "God, how dumb can you be?" Ideally, they'd do a run-through as far as Anaheim, but at least getting to LAUS would allow more one-seat rides and improve Metrolink connectivity dramatically (as well as connecting with other Amtrak services). Even if they couldn't run the super-high-speed trains over the whole route, just running the SJs over the mountains would seem to be a preferable shorter-term alternative. Not pretty, but connectivity matters.
I do consider this to be an improvement since it at least gets the buses out of the picture sooner, which is a must. I just wish they'd get the HSR trains into LAUS so you could /totally/ replace the link with a transfer at Bakersfield.
I'm reserving comment on the longer-range plans since the form that will take is going to be an open question. I think CAHSR will probably turn an operating profit, but until those trains get extended either downtown (or to Anaheim, I would hope, because of the marketing opportunities there) I think the effects are going to be limited.
Other Corridors
In the short run, the big improvements here are as follows:
-The Coast Daylight is the big one right now, since it gets a direct Bay Area-LAX connection (and restores direct service to the Peninsula).
--Even more interesting is the Lark coming back. Looking at the longer-term plans, CA wants to restore overnight SF-LA service. It will likely carry the (highly ironic, especially in winter) Coast Daylight name...I'm hoping someone in marketing has the good sense to make it "Coast Overnight" or something like that, but I'm /really/ glad to see this, especially as an adjunct to the HSR and whatnot plans.
--Hopefully, this train will run SF-San Diego. Not that the back-end market is likely to be massive, but getting Anaheim in there makes for some interesting marketing opportunities, to say nothing of connectivity.
-The San Joaquin is also looking at upgrades. God only knows how this will interact with the HSR plans; I can see the SJ getting some real synergies off of cross-platform transfers at Bakersfield, but I can also see some cross-cannibalization of longer trips (not to mention that any service into SF proper is going to eat into the Oakland business).
-Gobs and gobs of other corridors.
--I like the Palm Springs/Indio service for several reasons. First and foremost, it is a good commuter-esque corridor with a growing population, so there's a definite market there. Second, in the long run, if AZ goes ahead with any stuff in the Phoenix area (commuter operations or the Phoenix-Tuscon proposals), I could see the two potentially getting together to run a once/twice daily train on that end of things.
--Extending the Capitol Corridor in both directions (Reno and Salinas) would be nice, but I think UP is going to get in the way for now. From what I can tell about CA, they'll eventually throw in the money sooner or later. Salinas seems likely to happen sooner, mainly because from what I can tell, the folks there gave up on Caltrain.
--Ditto extending the San Joaquins to Redding. That basically covers everything except Redding-Eugene with corridor service (and that particular link can probably remain unfilled for the duration, given the speeds and low population along it). More importantly, it may allow for a few more local stops along the route than the Starlight can (or should) handle, adding to network effects. Hopefully, this would get 2xdaily (at least), and the CC trains should suffice for westward links to the Bay Area; hopefully there will also be a cross-platform option for CAHSR connections on the north end of CAHSR (Merced/Sacramento) as well, since Redding-Bakersfield and /then/ transferring would seem to make for a bit of a long day.
--The Vegas plans are just a mess. The X-Train isn't planned to even come close to daily operation (twice-weekly is going to be dubious, and there's no flexibility to adapt for holiday weekends), but I do think it will be a modest success (with some mixed-mode travel and what have you coming out of it). Desert Xpress/Xpress West is likely to be a morass, the way the HSR plans are developing: You'd take one train to Palmdale, another one into the SF Valley, and then a /third/ into downtown? Or alternatively, you'd take one into Palmdale and then spend two hours on a commuter train? Neither option seems "pretty" for the casual traveler given the amount of transferring.
The commuter plans are a bit of a tangle that I can go through in more depth, but I do like the operations they're looking at north of the Golden Gate. The Metrolink/Coaster plans are also interesting.
One thing I am left wondering is whether there's going to be a long-term effort to integrate Caltrain and the Capitol Corridor with one another?
