I see corridor expansion being the next big thing. ...
I am personally optimistic about all of those except South of the Lake, which I am deeply cynical about the chances of happening based on geography. I think it will be like herding cats trying to round up funding. Indiana has little incentive to contribute unless they can get corridor service east to say Fort Wayne out of it, but I don't really foresee a political turnaround happening to push for that. Michigan would stand to benefit most, but I suspect that the idea of spending state money outside of the state will be unpopular. Same for Ohio if they ever even come around to trying to get more Chicago service. Really I would love to see Amtrak have a significant source of funding for national network capital improvement projects, as this would a an ideal application, having substantial benefits for trains serving a very wide area.
South of the Lake is single biggest bang for the buck around. But so many bucks! Planners cite a range of $1.5 to $2.5 Billion for the whole thing.
The bulk of the money will have to come from the feds, or nothing happening. A Stimulus type program, or a substantial capital investments fund for Amtrak as you suggest, could do it. Otherwise, the planners speak of "incremental" improvements. Yeah, I envision nearly 100 TIGER grants of the maximum $25 million per grant with some matching state funds. That'll work.
Illinois will have to carry almost half the load of matching funds, to rebuild from Union Station to the state line. When Gov Ruiner is gone, that can happen.
From the other end, Michigan will have to pay to build outside its borders or go without fast trains. In the end, think they'll agree to pay for half a bridge or two or three, where new bridges will be costing $100 million or more.
NS might kick in a little something too. Getting the 14 Michigan trains a day (7 round trips) off the freight main line, in effect adding capacity, should be worth it.
Indiana will put a few pennies in the pot, and help with applications for federal funds. For real. Hammond-Whiting, Michigan City, and South Bend should benefit immediately. Smaller stations to the east -- Elkhart and Waterloo standing in for Fort Wayne -- would get a quick reward from the 30 minutes cut from the
Lake Shore and
Capitol Ltd schedules. (And a future faster re-route of the
Cardinal/Hoosier State trains.)
Ohio might benefit the most, but is least likely to contribute directly. But if Ohio supplies matching funds to do work Cleveland-Toledo, that pressures the other states to get it done with South of the Lake. Then connecting the parts to make a full-blown CLE-TOL-CHI Corridor will happen. Do that right with 2 or 3 hours out of the schedule and 6 or 8 corridor trains each way. Then the 2 LDs -- let's make it 3 or 4 at that point -- will move into operating surplus.