WoodyinNYC
Conductor
Unless there's a second Stimulus-type barrel of money to fall from the sky, or from Congress (less likely), almost all these projects are likely to be one small bite after another. O.K., the Long Bridge would probably have to be the whole enchilada at one bite. But in the Midwest, the comparable project is South of the Lake between Chicago and Michigan. On the SOTL site, it's page after page to reach a fizzle of a conclusion that there's no funding at hand and upgrades will be designed to be "incremental". In this region, it appears that D.C. to Richmond (whichever station, and between the stations, LOL) will be incremental over almost 10 years. Now you share the observation that SEHSR Raleigh-Richmond will probably be incremental, starting at 79 mph but maybe getting to a higher speed as funding becomes available. If they can at least design-in future upgrades to 110 mph it's not too bad.SEHSR is promoted in North Carolina as 4 hours from Raleigh to Washington ...
Whether SEHSR actually achieves 2 hours RGH-RVM is a question of money. Rebuilding the ex-SAL on the former roadbed for 79 or 90 mph instead of 110 would be far less costly ...
But there's a high political (and practical) price to patiently salami-slicing our way to faster trips. Announcing 4 to 6 minutes cut from the schedule each year for 5 years simply does not have the impact of a one-time announcement of 20 or 30 minutes saved. Of course ridership will grow more slowly at 79 mph than at 90 mph much less the surge from 110 mph operations.
We need success from the handful of big winners of Stimulus (and FY 2010) funds to drive future investment nationwide. St. Louis-Chicago, Detroit-Chicago, the Cascades Portland-Seattle, the Piedmont corridor, and the New Haven-Springfield-Vermont line should show much higher ridership and much lower operating subsidies. If they do, other states will develop envy: "Why can't we have a fast train from Cleveland to Chicago like they have in Detroit?" Then we'll see a push for more higher-speed corridors (which will benefit other LD trains). Otherwise, it will be back to the decades pre-Obama, with little or no improvement outside the NEC, and generalized stagnation and decline.
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