December MPR
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I'll dive a little further later when I have time, but WOW the midwest actually had an awesome month! Every Chicago-based corridor train had positive ridership growth year-over-year. Of course that makes me wonder if this is just a bounce back from an awful FY16, but small victories I guess at this point.
jis
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The minor significant weather issue in December with huge delays and cancellations perhaps?
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We are talking of the Auto Train, so why bring in Silvers into it?
WoodyinNYC
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My response was to Auto Train 14% reduction in Auto Train. That was the context of my response. If you wish to have a discussion of some other context fine, but I was not talking about that.
keelhauled
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I noticed that six food service cars (Amfleet I assume) are scheduled to be converted to coaches this year. Be interesting to know what they're being converted from--extra café cars or the Amfleet II diner lites getting canned in anticipation of Viewliners?
WoodyinNYC
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What is your problem? Maybe you should take a nap?
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Checking Status Maps Archive Database, there was nothing unusual about the operation of the Auto Train in December. All trains operated, and no extreme delays. That fact that the Silvers did not have a similar drop in ridership points to something specific with the Auto Train. I suspect that first-hand experience and word-of-mouth reports of the reduction in amenities may be impacting Auto Train ridership.
A lot of people ride that train every year, and probably expect the experience to be similar year to year. With food downgraded, wine no longer complimentary, the sleeper lounge car removed, and fares unchanged or higher, Amtrak may have pushed some riders over the tipping point.
A lot of people ride that train every year, and probably expect the experience to be similar year to year. With food downgraded, wine no longer complimentary, the sleeper lounge car removed, and fares unchanged or higher, Amtrak may have pushed some riders over the tipping point.
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Ah! I guess I was thinking of the wrong month.
That reduction due to quality of service is a definite possibility.14% seems rather large though. I wonder if it ran with a full complement of cars in December or Amtrak chose to run fewer cars this year than last too anticipating a downturn, and overdid it. I guess load factor numbers would answer that to some extent.
That reduction due to quality of service is a definite possibility.14% seems rather large though. I wonder if it ran with a full complement of cars in December or Amtrak chose to run fewer cars this year than last too anticipating a downturn, and overdid it. I guess load factor numbers would answer that to some extent.
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keelhauled
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Amtrak budgeted for about the same revenue per rider on the Auto Train, but significantly higher ridership. Instead they got sharply lower ridership, but managed to get distinctly higher revenue per rider, which is baffling to me.
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Coming to think of it, if one can balance out fall in ridership while maintaining or improving overall revenue a bit (not saying this happened, but just a hypothetical) and overall the operation is cash positive, then indirectly the users get a slightly better experience resulting from the train not being filled to the gills. Sta=range but true I think, as the provision of on board service would less stressed in such a situation.
The negative correlation between revenue per passenger and ridership is probably to be expected all else being equal, no?
The negative correlation between revenue per passenger and ridership is probably to be expected all else being equal, no?
The AutoTrain decline is not just December and has been going on for a while. For the October to December 1st quarter, AT ridership was off -14.5%, revenue -8.6%, although ticket revenue per rider is up +7.0%. The Meteor and Star, for comparison, were off a bit in ridership and -0.5% (Meteor) & -2.9% (Star) in revenue. The small dropoffs for the Silvers can in part be attributed to weather cancellations.
But the AT decline in ridership and revenue stands out among the LD trains. While some of the AT decline over the past year or two can be blamed on the big drop in gasoline prices, I think it is apparent that the reduction in service has had a major effect as well. With new management (and Congressman Mica no longer in office), it may be time to make some adjustments to the AT services.
The December 2016 report covers an entire quarter, so it is a good report to review and analyze for trends. If I find time tomorrow, I'll post something on it. The Acela is taking a hit in ridership as well down -3.6% for the quarter.
west point
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The effects of weather are being overlooked. Wonder how many persons did not want to drive to / from Lorton especially the blue hairs ? On the other hand the silvers could get passengers to / from destination much closer. As well the extra revenue cars around Christmas this year compared to 2015 made up for the slow weather days ?
WoodyinNYC
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This month's report has a nice re-ordering of the individual trains on page 20, or A-3.3. Instead of listing all the trains in a peculiar order, they are now grouped by region: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.
In addition, New York State's trains are now "Empire South" for NYC-Albany and "Empire West/Maple Leaf" for the Albany-Niagara Falls/Toronto trains.
The sponsoring states have been added to the info. We already knew which states are the heavy lifters: NY, VA, MI, IL, and CA. But if somebody guesses that VT carries the entire burden for the Vermonter, well, look here to see VT/MA/CT all get some credit.
+++++
I'm looking at the columns for Oct-Dec (used to be labelled Year-to-Date iirc).
Pull out blue ribbons for the Lincoln Service, St Louis-CHI, up by almost 30,000 riders over the previous year, a smashing 22.7% increase. They weren't all going to watch the World Series; the stands wouldn't hold 30,000 more fans. LOL. Srsly, iirc the worst of the construction needed to bring most of the route up to 110-mph standards has wrapped up, at least the kind of projects that caused detours and bustitutions in recent years, so ridership is rebounding. That's a good sign for the kind of increases we hope to see when the new "about an hour less" schedules begin later this year. This is the showpiece for investing in High(er) Speed Rail, the biggest and most conspicuous of the Stimulus-funded projects. If it's a success, neighboring states (looking at you, Indiana and Ohio, as well as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Kentucky ,,,) will start to ask, "Why can't we have nice trains like Illinois?"
Another blue ribbon goes to the Cascades corridor, up by almost 25,000 pax for the 3-month period, for a 13.8% increase. Later this year the Stimulus-funded upgrades Portland-Seattle will kick in. Not quite as dramatic as the Lincoln Service 110-mph improvements St. Louis-CHI, but with an increase from 4 Cascades frequencies to 6 daily, we hope to see more rapid growth soon.
A red ribbon goes to the Vermonter up 9.3%, despite disrupting construction on the segment New Haven-Hartford-Springfield. Next year this part of the route will be double tracked on a rehabbed ROW: faster, smoother, better. The nice performance this year is due to the improvements made in MA and VT last year that saved 30 minutes in the Vermont end.
A red ribbon for the Keystones, up 6.7:%, and one to Michigan's Blue Water, up 7.1%. The Blue Water is another frequency on the Wolverine route CHI-Kalamazoo, but then peels off at Battle Creek, heading northeast to serve Lansing, Flint, and Port Huron. Beats me what could be happening along there to drive its recent growth.
The Pere Marquette, another train in Michigan's stable, CHI-Grand Rapids, gets a red ribbon for its 6.5% increase.
Improbably, the Heartland Flyer, Oklahoma City-Ft Worth, was up 4.9%, The Hiawathas, CHI-Milwaukee, were up 3.6%. The Capitol Corridor, Sacramento-Oakland-San Jose, and the Empire South, NYC-Albany, were both up 2.7%. Our board's popular favorite, the Lynchburger, was up 2.4%. Steady as she goes, the Surfliner gained by 1.2%. (I'm ignoring the Hoosier State as a special case.)
Of the 29 state-supported trains, 13 lost passengers from FY2016. But as a group, the total ridership gained 2.0% over the same period in 2016. Bus revenue rose nicely, from $1,785,000 to $2,370,000, but no ridership total was available.
Among the L.D. lines, a blue ribbon with a gold star to the Texas Eagle, probably bouncing back from the construction mess on the Lincoln Corridor, St Louis-CHI, up 18.4%, and the humble Palmetto, up by 16.1%, reflecting its successful hitch-up to a Regional train for the NEC segment of its run.
Red ribbons to the Cardinal, up smartly with a 5.6% increase, the Lake Shore Ltd, up 5.2%, and the Capitol Ltd with a 2.8% gain. These five trains lifted the LD group combined by 2%, despite 6 of the others posting small losses while 3 of them were flat, with growth of less than 1%.
Not a bad showing overall, with gas so cheap and the on-going system-wide shortage of equipment.
In addition, New York State's trains are now "Empire South" for NYC-Albany and "Empire West/Maple Leaf" for the Albany-Niagara Falls/Toronto trains.
The sponsoring states have been added to the info. We already knew which states are the heavy lifters: NY, VA, MI, IL, and CA. But if somebody guesses that VT carries the entire burden for the Vermonter, well, look here to see VT/MA/CT all get some credit.
+++++
I'm looking at the columns for Oct-Dec (used to be labelled Year-to-Date iirc).
Pull out blue ribbons for the Lincoln Service, St Louis-CHI, up by almost 30,000 riders over the previous year, a smashing 22.7% increase. They weren't all going to watch the World Series; the stands wouldn't hold 30,000 more fans. LOL. Srsly, iirc the worst of the construction needed to bring most of the route up to 110-mph standards has wrapped up, at least the kind of projects that caused detours and bustitutions in recent years, so ridership is rebounding. That's a good sign for the kind of increases we hope to see when the new "about an hour less" schedules begin later this year. This is the showpiece for investing in High(er) Speed Rail, the biggest and most conspicuous of the Stimulus-funded projects. If it's a success, neighboring states (looking at you, Indiana and Ohio, as well as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Kentucky ,,,) will start to ask, "Why can't we have nice trains like Illinois?"
Another blue ribbon goes to the Cascades corridor, up by almost 25,000 pax for the 3-month period, for a 13.8% increase. Later this year the Stimulus-funded upgrades Portland-Seattle will kick in. Not quite as dramatic as the Lincoln Service 110-mph improvements St. Louis-CHI, but with an increase from 4 Cascades frequencies to 6 daily, we hope to see more rapid growth soon.
A red ribbon goes to the Vermonter up 9.3%, despite disrupting construction on the segment New Haven-Hartford-Springfield. Next year this part of the route will be double tracked on a rehabbed ROW: faster, smoother, better. The nice performance this year is due to the improvements made in MA and VT last year that saved 30 minutes in the Vermont end.
A red ribbon for the Keystones, up 6.7:%, and one to Michigan's Blue Water, up 7.1%. The Blue Water is another frequency on the Wolverine route CHI-Kalamazoo, but then peels off at Battle Creek, heading northeast to serve Lansing, Flint, and Port Huron. Beats me what could be happening along there to drive its recent growth.
The Pere Marquette, another train in Michigan's stable, CHI-Grand Rapids, gets a red ribbon for its 6.5% increase.
Improbably, the Heartland Flyer, Oklahoma City-Ft Worth, was up 4.9%, The Hiawathas, CHI-Milwaukee, were up 3.6%. The Capitol Corridor, Sacramento-Oakland-San Jose, and the Empire South, NYC-Albany, were both up 2.7%. Our board's popular favorite, the Lynchburger, was up 2.4%. Steady as she goes, the Surfliner gained by 1.2%. (I'm ignoring the Hoosier State as a special case.)
Of the 29 state-supported trains, 13 lost passengers from FY2016. But as a group, the total ridership gained 2.0% over the same period in 2016. Bus revenue rose nicely, from $1,785,000 to $2,370,000, but no ridership total was available.
Among the L.D. lines, a blue ribbon with a gold star to the Texas Eagle, probably bouncing back from the construction mess on the Lincoln Corridor, St Louis-CHI, up 18.4%, and the humble Palmetto, up by 16.1%, reflecting its successful hitch-up to a Regional train for the NEC segment of its run.
Red ribbons to the Cardinal, up smartly with a 5.6% increase, the Lake Shore Ltd, up 5.2%, and the Capitol Ltd with a 2.8% gain. These five trains lifted the LD group combined by 2%, despite 6 of the others posting small losses while 3 of them were flat, with growth of less than 1%.
Not a bad showing overall, with gas so cheap and the on-going system-wide shortage of equipment.
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west point
Engineer
There may be problems with the North river tunnels? . Amtrak spent quite a bit more than budget for tunnel work.
Also Bear is pushing more Amfleets out reported to meet demand for equipment.
Also Bear is pushing more Amfleets out reported to meet demand for equipment.
In Wisconsin, we are dealing with a situation where train service has been so skeletal for so long that the vast majority of Badgers have no experience taking a train ride, and, thus, cannot see themselves or anyone else they know riding a train. It is going to be one tough sell getting Wisconsinites to ask why we can't have a nice train when so many are accustomed to driving everywhere. In the recent past, it was impossible to overcome the advantage that talk radio gave to opponents.
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I'm trying to figure out and "translate" the delay numbers near the end of the report. I'm pretty good with math, but I'm not sure I'm calculating them properly.
I believe delays are calculated as "Minutes of Delay Per 10,000 Route Miles".
Looking at the Auto Train's delay numbers for December only, it shows 1426 minutes per 10,000 route miles in CSX territory and 1871 minutes per 10,000 route miles in SunRail territory.
It says the AT goes through 898 route miles of CSX track, which means if that minutes of delay number is based on 10,000 route miles, it would mean it had 1426 minutes of delay for every 11.1 trips (10000 divided by 898), correct? So if you divide 1426 by 11.1, you get roughly 128 minutes of delay every trip on average, or averaging about a 2+ hour delay through that territory. Does that sound about right? Based on the ASM archive, I'd say a good average delay is around 2 hours, so it looks pretty fair, but if someone has a better calculation of what the numbers actually mean, that would be great.
I believe delays are calculated as "Minutes of Delay Per 10,000 Route Miles".
Looking at the Auto Train's delay numbers for December only, it shows 1426 minutes per 10,000 route miles in CSX territory and 1871 minutes per 10,000 route miles in SunRail territory.
It says the AT goes through 898 route miles of CSX track, which means if that minutes of delay number is based on 10,000 route miles, it would mean it had 1426 minutes of delay for every 11.1 trips (10000 divided by 898), correct? So if you divide 1426 by 11.1, you get roughly 128 minutes of delay every trip on average, or averaging about a 2+ hour delay through that territory. Does that sound about right? Based on the ASM archive, I'd say a good average delay is around 2 hours, so it looks pretty fair, but if someone has a better calculation of what the numbers actually mean, that would be great.
neroden
Engineer
So, most of the usual financial stuff is completely "same as last year", apart from the Auto Train doing much worse.
The interesting stuff comes in the OTP reports.
All the Class Is are doing about equally well on slow orders now.
Then there's freight train interference.
CN's management is clearly the worst. The Illini & Saluki are suffering from signal failures. The Wolverine and Adirondack lines are suffering from slow orders and are clearly not maintained properly. And they're *all* being dispatched with high freight train interference, though the Adirondack (where Amtrak has no legal recourse) is the absolute worst. It would be wise to buy the Canadian trackage.
CSX is close behind, and shows scofflaw behavior, delaying passenger trains for freights across the board.
NS is actually slightly worse than CSX -- has still not fully recovered from their Autorouter disaster. Most of their delays are *still* in the Chicago approach; South of the Lake needs to be built ASAP.
Union Pacific is similar to BNSF, much better than the eastern roads, but still causing trouble across the board.
BNSF is the second-best. Despite this, there were large FTI delays on the Empire Builder; not really on anything else.
CP is *by far* the best.
The shortlines mostly have slow order problems (probably due to lack of money), and so do some of the commuter railroads. Most of the commuter railroads are running their commuter trains ahead of Amtrak, but that's legal, unlike what the freight railroads are doing.
Conclusion: build South of the Lake; get VIA or Quebec to buy the CN trackage from the Vermont/NY border to Montreal; buy the CN "tail" of the Wolverine; continue prosecuting the deliberate delay case against CN on the Illini/Saluki/CONO route; buy as much route mileage from CSX as possible.
The interesting stuff comes in the OTP reports.
All the Class Is are doing about equally well on slow orders now.
Then there's freight train interference.
CN's management is clearly the worst. The Illini & Saluki are suffering from signal failures. The Wolverine and Adirondack lines are suffering from slow orders and are clearly not maintained properly. And they're *all* being dispatched with high freight train interference, though the Adirondack (where Amtrak has no legal recourse) is the absolute worst. It would be wise to buy the Canadian trackage.
CSX is close behind, and shows scofflaw behavior, delaying passenger trains for freights across the board.
NS is actually slightly worse than CSX -- has still not fully recovered from their Autorouter disaster. Most of their delays are *still* in the Chicago approach; South of the Lake needs to be built ASAP.
Union Pacific is similar to BNSF, much better than the eastern roads, but still causing trouble across the board.
BNSF is the second-best. Despite this, there were large FTI delays on the Empire Builder; not really on anything else.
CP is *by far* the best.
The shortlines mostly have slow order problems (probably due to lack of money), and so do some of the commuter railroads. Most of the commuter railroads are running their commuter trains ahead of Amtrak, but that's legal, unlike what the freight railroads are doing.
Conclusion: build South of the Lake; get VIA or Quebec to buy the CN trackage from the Vermont/NY border to Montreal; buy the CN "tail" of the Wolverine; continue prosecuting the deliberate delay case against CN on the Illini/Saluki/CONO route; buy as much route mileage from CSX as possible.
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jis
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One matter of concern is that CSX and Hunter Harrison are apparently talking about Harrison taking over as CEO of CSX!
AFAIK the only trackage that CSX is currently offering is a bunch around Miami. If the half a dozen agencies around Miami-Dade can come to an agreement they may be able to acquire it, but who knows what happens in Florida and why?
Is CSX offering anything else for sale/lease?
AFAIK the only trackage that CSX is currently offering is a bunch around Miami. If the half a dozen agencies around Miami-Dade can come to an agreement they may be able to acquire it, but who knows what happens in Florida and why?
Is CSX offering anything else for sale/lease?
neroden
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Huh?
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