Elon Musk & "Hyperloop" announcement 12 Aug 2013

[afigg]

Ok, let's give Musk the benefit of the doubt for a just moment. I have a wonderful idea: If Musk will hand the money to the state for a full battery of preliminary engineering, a Tier I EIS, and an alternatives analysis (with the project to be handed to a third-party firm not affiliated with Musk in any way so he can't fudge the numbers), then it'll be given due consideration while the current portion of HSR is under consideration. Even let him run the money through a 501©(3) of his choosing.

The EIS for the Hyperloop alternative would use what basis for reliability, construction cost, control software and signal system costs, operating costs, maintenance costs, environmental issues such as audio noise, electrical noise, RF emissions?
If the Hyperloop is a serious proposal, the next steps would be to build several working scale models, first on a (long) lab bench, then maybe a 1/12 or 1/15th working test bed in a big warehouse. Then a full scale test and prototype system with a tube long enough to reach max speed. Probably at least 15 to 20 miles long. Then a working demonstration and evaluation 30-40 mile long system that is approved for public use between 2 destinations - an airport and downtown or 2 cities.

Once there is a working system that can be used for comprehensive real world testing and data collection, then a Tier I EIS could be undertaken that considers Hyperloop as one of the technology alternatives. The above technology development process starting with a lab bench testbed to a working demonstration system could cost several billion dollars easy and take a decade or two, probably more.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Ok, let's give Musk the benefit of the doubt for a just moment. I have a wonderful idea: If Musk will hand the money to the state for a full battery of preliminary engineering, a Tier I EIS, and an alternatives analysis (with the project to be handed to a third-party firm not affiliated with Musk in any way so he can't fudge the numbers), then it'll be given due consideration while the current portion of HSR is under consideration. Even let him run the money through a 501©(3) of his choosing.

The EIS for the Hyperloop alternative would use what basis for reliability, construction cost, control software and signal system costs, operating costs, maintenance costs, environmental issues such as audio noise, electrical noise, RF emissions?
If the Hyperloop is a serious proposal, the next steps would be to build several working scale models, first on a (long) lab bench, then maybe a 1/12 or 1/15th working test bed in a big warehouse. Then a full scale test and prototype system with a tube long enough to reach max speed. Probably at least 15 to 20 miles long. Then a working demonstration and evaluation 30-40 mile long system that is approved for public use between 2 destinations - an airport and downtown or 2 cities.

Once there is a working system that can be used for comprehensive real world testing and data collection, then a Tier I EIS could be undertaken that considers Hyperloop as one of the technology alternatives. The above technology development process starting with a lab bench testbed to a working demonstration system could cost several billion dollars easy and take a decade or two, probably more.

It's not like CAHSR has taken long enough already. No one knows when the route will actually get built. Might as well get Hyperloop testing stated now in case things never get started with the stupid bogged-down HSR program.

 

[Anderson]

Ok, let's give Musk the benefit of the doubt for a just moment. I have a wonderful idea: If Musk will hand the money to the state for a full battery of preliminary engineering, a Tier I EIS, and an alternatives analysis (with the project to be handed to a third-party firm not affiliated with Musk in any way so he can't fudge the numbers), then it'll be given due consideration while the current portion of HSR is under consideration. Even let him run the money through a 501©(3) of his choosing.

The EIS for the Hyperloop alternative would use what basis for reliability, construction cost, control software and signal system costs, operating costs, maintenance costs, environmental issues such as audio noise, electrical noise, RF emissions?
If the Hyperloop is a serious proposal, the next steps would be to build several working scale models, first on a (long) lab bench, then maybe a 1/12 or 1/15th working test bed in a big warehouse. Then a full scale test and prototype system with a tube long enough to reach max speed. Probably at least 15 to 20 miles long. Then a working demonstration and evaluation 30-40 mile long system that is approved for public use between 2 destinations - an airport and downtown or 2 cities.

Once there is a working system that can be used for comprehensive real world testing and data collection, then a Tier I EIS could be undertaken that considers Hyperloop as one of the technology alternatives. The above technology development process starting with a lab bench testbed to a working demonstration system could cost several billion dollars easy and take a decade or two, probably more.

The first two wouldn't be unreasonable for Musk to fund out-of-pocket. My guess is that you'd probably build #3 somewhere that you could expand into #4 with an extension into town or something like that (so you didn't get stuck with two completely unusable sections later). Also, it might be plausible to do #1 and #2 together, assuming Musk was willing to treat #2 as a very expensive toy to play with and risk it not working. Considering how far he leapt with this concept in some regards, I'm not sure that isn't a reasonable assumption.

With all of that said, I suspect you could find a reasonable working basis for many elements of the construction process using elevated highways as a baseline and modifying that. That'd at least get some questions answered on certain elements of construction (since at the base of the project, you're building a really, really long bridge).

 

[CHamilton]

Wired magazine may have been thinking about the Hyperloop as they published The Greatest Mass Transit Fails in History. I'd heard of most of them, but Schweeb, a "pedal-powered monorail system," was a new one on me.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

That Schweeb looks very uncomfortable. Don't think it'll work.

 

[George Harris]

Musk should still give it a try. You never know what is Possible until you try to do it. We must constantly push the boundaries of Impossible in order to futher Civilization. Back in 1700, only three hundred years ago, no one thought that man could travel around the world in less than 40 hours.
If the Hyperloop works eventually, I've sure kick out HSR any day for Hyperloop. Don't think those foolish CAHSR planners are going to make anything hpppen anytime soon. We need a private operator to get things running, even if he needs subsides.

Right. However, when reality strikes, do you really think Hyperloop can get started with their construction any faster than CAHSR when they have to start dealing with reality rather than hallucination? Environmental Impact Statements, Alternative Analysis, NIMBY'isms, political pressure groups that either want it close or don't want it close, etc., etc. Without those wonderful things we could have been riding CAHSR trains by now.

There is also the reality of dealing with several major fault crossings. How are you doing those? What happens to this thing when one of these faults chooses to move? How do you evacuate the passengers when there is some form of power or other system failure? This will happen in an earthquake. Wishing or imagining that it won't does not keep it from happening. What happens when the epicenter is at the line and happens when one of these capsules is there? This is what happened to cause a Shinkansen train to derail. There were bumps and bruises, but everybody literally walked out. They had to. No other way was possible at that time and place for hours, if not days. With one of these capsules, after you got to it, you would be having to which chunk of the biological pulp stuck against the front of the capsule belonged to which person.

When we talk about all the wonders of improved transportation over the last 300 years, and actually the time is more like 200 years, you need to also look at all the things that have been tried and then failed along the way.

Musk may have come up with the wonders of the electric car, but he did not have to develop and build the roads on which it can be used. That was already there and done by someone else. I would bet that he has no idea of what it takes to get a road built or what sort of standards are used in their design and construction to ensure safety and reliability.

The basic concept of the railroad was fairly well developed by 1830. However, it took another 80 years of refinement the get these to a reasonably good level of safety and reliability, and even today there are still improvements being made. The basic concept of the automobile again took about 30 years of development, and we are still working on refining that one.

By the way, the electric car is a resurrection of a concept of 100 years ago. The Telsa is basically a refinement of the 1900 to 1910 electric automobile, and for the most part using amenities for the passengers that were developed for gasoline powered vehicles and improvements in batteries in motors that have also developed over the last 100 years for other applications. It is primarily a melding of developments by others, and sells at a price that is simply out of reach of most of the driving public. In that last, it is very much like the early 1900's car, which was primarily a rich old ladies vehicle.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

The problem is that CAHSR consistently gets delayed and delayed. If was eventually have to wait 20 or 30 years for that, Hyperloop could already be running well. Better to get started now than to constantly wait.

JMO

 

[jis]

The problem is that CAHSR consistently gets delayed and delayed. If was eventually have to wait 20 or 30 years for that, Hyperloop could already be running well. Better to get started now than to constantly wait.
JMO

Did someone say something about being constrained by reality? nah!

 

[CHamilton]

Elon Musk's Hyperloop Will Work, Says Some Very Smart Software

When Elon Musk unveiled the Hyperloop back in August, his critics were quick to scoff at his proposal for a new, superfast mode of transporation [sic]. A number of people derided Musk’s white paper as cartoonish and vague. Musk vowed to prove the naysayers wrong by building an actual physical prototype, but that’s not expected to arrive for years.

Meanwhile, some evidence has just appeared that shows Musk may indeed be onto something. Ansys (ANSS), a maker of very high-end simulation software used to design planes, trains, automobiles and all manner of other things, has fed the Hyperloop specifications into a computer and come away impressed. “I don’t immediately see any red flags,” says Sandeep Sovani, the director of land transporation [sic] strategy at Ansys. “I think it is quite viable.”...

Ansys studied Musk’s lengthy Hyperloop white paper. The company used the artists’ renderings in the document to create a virtual mockup of a pod and the tube that could be fed into simulation software. It then decided to study what the air pressure might look like on the pod and inside the tube and set a computer to work for a few hours to perform the neccessary [sic] calculations.

While Sovani found the overall design to be feasible, he does think the Hyperloop will need some tweaks. For one, instead of having the pods taper at the end, he thinks the pods should be cylindrical with a large jet engine-type contraption at the front to suck in the air. While a soup can-shaped pod might not look as cool, it would allow a more even distribution of air pressure across the outside of the pod and allow it to suck in more air. “In our opinion, it has to be very very symmetrical,” says Sovani.

Sovani also suggests that the air bearings do a better job of spreading air across the body of the pods and that there should even be bearings on the top of the vehicle. The Ansys simulation showed very uneven stress markings alongside the body of the pod. “We see a lot of shear stress areas,” Sovani says. “In something like an aircraft, the patterns would be very uniform.” Bearings on the top of the pod would help the device stay balanced during slight changes in air pressure.

Musk’s SpaceX uses the Ansys software, so Musk is familiar with this type of simulation technology. ...

Really? The simulation company counts Musk as a customer, and BusinessWeek can't spell-check its own articles?

 

[Anderson]

I'm reminded of the story of how Scotty handled the Koybashi Maru scenario...

 

[CHamilton]

What Would A Hyperloop Nation Look Like?

 

[CHamilton]

Enter SpaceX’s Hyperloop pod design contest for fame, glory, bragging rights

 

[AmtrakBlue]

Hyperloop Technologies Readies for First Test of Futuristic Transportation Systemhttp://abcnews.go.com/Technology/hyperloop-technologies-readies-test-futuristic-transportation-system/story?id=35674107

Hyperloop Technologies Inc., one of the companies dedicated to building the Hyperloop, announced this week it has secured 50 acres in Las Vegas. Hardware is expected to arrive on the site this month.

Set for the first quarter of next year, the first propulsion test will involve sending an electric motor along a 1-kilometer track at a speed of 540 km per hour (335 miles per hour.)