Empire Builder Summer Blues Started Early this year

[EB_OBS]

from the status maps it appears that 28 has not yet departed pdx. 8 is on time but looks like 28 will be late tonight to spk

A BNSF crew had a rules violation which trapped the PDX yard crew and they expired on HOS. This delayed servicing and getting #27 to the wye to turn it for #28

 

[yarrow]

from the status maps it appears that 28 has not yet departed pdx. 8 is on time but looks like 28 will be late tonight to spk

A BNSF crew had a rules violation which trapped the PDX yard crew and they expired on HOS. This delayed servicing and getting #27 to the wye to turn it for #28

thanks. this is the sort of stuff that happened last year as an added bonus to the construction delays. i see 8 that got into spk at 7am yesterday and should have been in chi this afternoon has dropped off the status map. bus from havre to chi, anyone? :giggle:

 

[montana mike]

Amtrak shows #8 arriving MSP over 8 hours behind schedule today-and arriving in CHI just before midnight--what a saga for this train the last few days--whew.

:-(((

 

[jebr]

Amtrak shows #8 arriving MSP over 8 hours behind schedule today-and arriving in CHI just before midnight--what a saga for this train the last few days--whew.:-(((

They're now showing 9 hours late into SCD, which would mean 8.5 (at best) into MSP.

At this rate, maybe Metro Transit can just use the Empire Builder as the midday Northstar train!

 

[RRUserious]

Amtrak shows #8 arriving MSP over 8 hours behind schedule today-and arriving in CHI just before midnight--what a saga for this train the last few days--whew.:-(((

Now I'm feeling lucky because MINE was only 6 hours!!!

 

[montana mike]

A ran into my BNSF contact today and he was just shaking his head over the EB delays on their line. The first thing he said was BNSF made it VERY clear to AMTRAK the scope and breadth of the work that was going to occur this maintenance season, especially in MT and ND. Second, there have been no surprises on the freight side of the coin either. The increase in the number of BOTH energy related trains as well as increases in grain, coal and inter-model trains was also provided in detail to the powers that be at AMTRAK well before this summer's EB schedule swoon. The delay estimates for the EBs that he provided to me some time back-which I shared on this forum-- have proven to be quite accurate, or even perhaps a wee bit conservative, as we have seen recently. Lastly, he has said BNSF has made bone fide efforts each and every day to try to move the EBs thru this maze, but as he told me, you can only push so much traffic thru a portal that is already very busy and is undergoing significant construction efforts by the host RR.

I asked him about later this Fall. He said with the construction winding down in about 8+ weeks removing much of that factor in the delays should help some of course, but the increases in all of the other traffic will continue, with the energy trains slated for further increases in 2014, as I have reported here earlier as well. When I relayed to him what was happening with the EB over this past week--especially for arrivals in CHI he said he was aware of the EB issues--it was one of the "hot topics" of conversation at BNSF. They do want the EB to operate in a timely manner and it hurts them to see these incredibly bad delays as well. I believe his sincerity in this regard.

I guess all we can do is hope for the best, but travelers MUST be prepared for missed connections, very long arrival delays. especially in CHI and along much of the EB route East of the Rockies and anyone traveling beyond CHI to the East or South should make sure they have some flexibility in their schedules.

 

[Nathanael]

I don't know who gave you that info. A very close friend of ours is a principle in one of the firms in the Bakken play and their estimates are for increasing production in ND and MT for at least 20-30 years, with full production lasting two to three times that long. This is the largest energy field outside of TX in US history. It will be around for generations. This guy has been in the business his entire life and I believe his estimates to be quite accurate. He is not one to speak in hyperboles.

Most of the shale *gas* plays are going to burn out VERY VERY fast -- less than 5 years -- they DO decline at 30%-40% per year -- which is probably what the previous commenter is thinking of.

Shale *oil* -- liquids -- does not decline nearly as fast, so Bakken will be around for a while. However, it will not be around "for generations". Maybe 30 years before steep decline sets in -- about right based on USGS estimates. And within 30 years, nobody will be wasting their money on the huge amounts of money necessary for extraction, since solar power will be (a lot) cheaper.

Oilmen habitually exaggerate the size of their discoveries (optimism bias), particularly when they're dealing with different geology from the old "gushers".

 

[RRUserious]

Thank heaven if they do peter out. The world doesn't need to be burning that much fossil fuel for decades. There are babies today that face very grim prospects if the consequences of combustion continue to grow. Everything we've taken for granted could be upset, and generations that make it to the end of this century will have a life we wouldn't recognize.

 

[yarrow]

A ran into my BNSF contact today and he was just shaking his head over the EB delays on their line. The first thing he said was BNSF made it VERY clear to AMTRAK the scope and breadth of the work that was going to occur this maintenance season, especially in MT and ND. Second, there have been no surprises on the freight side of the coin either. The increase in the number of BOTH energy related trains as well as increases in grain, coal and inter-model trains was also provided in detail to the powers that be at AMTRAK well before this summer's EB schedule swoon. The delay estimates for the EBs that he provided to me some time back-which I shared on this forum-- have proven to be quite accurate, or even perhaps a wee bit conservative, as we have seen recently. Lastly, he has said BNSF has made bone fide efforts each and every day to try to move the EBs thru this maze, but as he told me, you can only push so much traffic thru a portal that is already very busy and is undergoing significant construction efforts by the host RR.I asked him about later this Fall. He said with the construction winding down in about 8+ weeks removing much of that factor in the delays should help some of course, but the increases in all of the other traffic will continue, with the energy trains slated for further increases in 2014, as I have reported here earlier as well. When I relayed to him what was happening with the EB over this past week--especially for arrivals in CHI he said he was aware of the EB issues--it was one of the "hot topics" of conversation at BNSF. They do want the EB to operate in a timely manner and it hurts them to see these incredibly bad delays as well. I believe his sincerity in this regard.

I guess all we can do is hope for the best, but travelers MUST be prepared for missed connections, very long arrival delays. especially in CHI and along much of the EB route East of the Rockies and anyone traveling beyond CHI to the East or South should make sure they have some flexibility in their schedules.

maybe we can talk amtrak into issuing your post as a travel alert since they seem too busy to write and issue one themselves.

 

[RRUserious]

Yeh, Amtrak management is very customer-hostile IMO. The attendant in my compartment car was arrogant and rude to me. I guess we are their form of amusement. But thanks to places like this, people can sample the truth before they ride. Then either they go fully prepared for the ACTUAL trip, or they simply decide "this isn't for me". The fact is that much of it is not Amtrak's fault, but the lack of transparency is 100 percent Amtrak's fault. And fumbling the problems which are so predictable is also totally their fault. They apparently don't realize their requests to Congress are much less likely to get a friendly ear when they handle their job this way.

 

[montana mike]

I don't know who gave you that info. A very close friend of ours is a principle in one of the firms in the Bakken play and their estimates are for increasing production in ND and MT for at least 20-30 years, with full production lasting two to three times that long. This is the largest energy field outside of TX in US history. It will be around for generations. This guy has been in the business his entire life and I believe his estimates to be quite accurate. He is not one to speak in hyperboles.

Most of the shale *gas* plays are going to burn out VERY VERY fast -- less than 5 years -- they DO decline at 30%-40% per year -- which is probably what the previous commenter is thinking of.

Shale *oil* -- liquids -- does not decline nearly as fast, so Bakken will be around for a while. However, it will not be around "for generations". Maybe 30 years before steep decline sets in -- about right based on USGS estimates. And within 30 years, nobody will be wasting their money on the huge amounts of money necessary for extraction, since solar power will be (a lot) cheaper.

Oilmen habitually exaggerate the size of their discoveries (optimism bias), particularly when they're dealing with different geology from the old "gushers".

Considering just 10 years ago the USCGS estimated the size of the Bakken to be only about 5% of what their current estimate is now I wouldn't put much credence in anything they say lately. Time will prove who is correct, but I recall so many "pundits" and "experts" saying that the US would peak in oil and NG production in 1979 and would be a huge importer of these two items by 2010 and look where we are now (we will be a net exporter of NG shortly for example). Our imports have dropped sharply and we are producing more NG and oil than in decades. I am not a blind proponent of just fossil fuels by any stretch, but I look at the "promise" wind power--right here in our back yard in MT and all I see is very high priced results (still 3 times the cost of any alternative, the slaughtering of tens of thousands of birds each year (a sad and "inconvenient truth" of this type of generation) and "wind turbine fires" (fascinating-I have seen several now in MT--not pretty sights and also, unfortunately more "routine" than most would lead one to believe). I look at solar and think, yes, someday this will make a big difference (at least we all hope so), but the contribution is so tiny even now and the cost is even higher than other generation methods that until we can improve the efficiency of the capture of the Sun's energy , this is going to be a fringe player. I have all of the confidence that eventually our great minds will indeed come up with the breakthroughs needed to transform how we produce energy and how we use it, but I am also a realist, knowing these breakthroughs will take more time and require several very significant advances in science.

 

[RRUserious]

I recall so many "pundits" and "experts" saying that the US would peak in oil and NG production in 1979 and would be a huge importer of these two items by 2010 and look where we are now

Try to recall that the predictions are the reason that huge efforts have been made to conserve all forms of energy. If people had been frivolous about energy, who knows where we'd be? Also, consider the effect of the oil wars. Let's say Saddam Hussein's campaign to trade petroleum in other than dollars had succeeded (and m any countries have reasons to want that), we'be forced back on our own resources. We've probably imported hundreds of billions of barrels in the last couple decades. So I think you have to do the analysis with all elements in mind. It is so easy to joke about the "experts" being clueless. But a little harder to consider all the variables that led from 1979 till now. We can't forget those deep deep wells in the Caribbean, one of which gushed a leak of historic proportions.

On this pagehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy is a graph. In 1979, CAFE for cars was under 20. In 2009, it had doubled. Given America's love of driving billions of miles, that doubling, which experts didn't have any reason to project, is a big factor in the last decade's downward trend of gasoline purchase.

 

[montana mike]

Hmmmm, the last 22 years (1990-2012), looking at the DOE's own stats our actual CAFE numbers have gone up a "whopping" 1.5 mpg. Not what I would call statistically significant. With the boom in sales of big trucks and SUVs (almost all of the increase in new vehicle sales) this year, not sure we are going to make much progress here.

PS--The well that leaked was in the Gulf of Mexico-nowhere near the Caribbean.

PPS--#8 in MN this AM lost around 3 1/2 hours during its trek thru the MT/ND construction zone--surprising a bit, since it was the weekend. Must be working this weekend.

 

[RRUserious]

Um, interesting, but you didn't post the l ink you were looking at. Can't comment till I read that.

 

[RRUserious]

Couple of interesting economic facts. The chart on this page shows gasoline consumption barely exceeding 1994. http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/01/31/why-is-us-oil-consumption-lower-better-gasoline-mileage/ The second fact is that in that same period, the GDP went from 9 trillion to nearly 16 trillion. So if you look at the gas burned relative to economy size, the gasoline needed to run the economy has dropped CONSIDERABLY. Funny how back when the first proposals to raise gas mileage came out in the 70's, opponents said "oh that'll crush the economy". Looking back, it now seems that making cars fuel efficient has merely saved the auto industry from death because most of the world wouldn't buy US cars if they were as inefficient as in the 1970s. And I never get tired of repeating that oil dollars are the ultimate source of funding for global terrorism. I'm surprised Bakken hasn't beat that drum.

 

[montana mike]

Your solution???? If we switched over to "alternative" sources of energy right now (eg. wind and solar), using today's technology where would we be? Our wind turbines (when not catching on fire and slaughtering birds) only operate about 1/3 of the time here in MT--even at the windy Rocky Mtn front--not because there is too little wind, but because they cannot operate when it is too windy, which is most of the time in the winter. Solar is still years away from being close to competitive with any other energy source. DOE's own figures (when you look at the total life cycle of a solar facility- a lot more maintenance than one would think--dust an dirt cut down dramatically on panel efficiency) still puts the cost per KWH at over 3 times the cost of a NG power plant. We MUST be realistic in our thinking and planning.

Lastly, if we become energy independent by using what we have in the short run (< 50 years), while working on longer term solutions, those oil sheiks and nut cases in Venezuela and Iran will then have fewer places to sell their oil to thus greatly reducing the threat of terrorism. The ONLY reason this is an issue is because most of the world unfortunately depends on these unstable dictatorships and Islamic theocracies for our energy. Remove the demand and they eventually become irrelevant-as they were before the oil boom.

BTW--doing the math and using the USCGS and DOE figures on the amount of NG "technically recoverable" right now in the Bakken and applying this amount to the US daily usage of NG, this field would be able to supply all of our NG needs for over a century. Hardly a flash in the pan as suggested.

I also spoke with two of my BNSF friends this AM about what time horizon BNSF is looking at in ND and MT as far as the Bakken and they were both told by senior management that the infrastructure going into place now is expected to be fully utilized for "in excess of 70 years".

PS--Most of the world doesn't buy US cars anymore either. Sadly "foreign" imports and transplants even make up a majority of US car sales now- (GM is down to a 18% market share (when my father worked for Ford, GM dominated with 50%+), Toyota 14.7%, Ford 14.4%, Honda 11.3%, Chrysler (now includes Fiat which owns Chrysler) 11%, Nissan 8%, Hyundai 5%, Subaru 2.5%, VW 2.4%, and others.....).

 

[montana mike]

Getting BACK on topic--Monday looks like it is shaping up to be a more typical day for the Empire Builder--perhaps 3+ hours behind on #8 chugging thru WI now and slightly better performance on the #7 heading westbound in eastern MT. Could be a lot worse!!

 

[RRUserious]

Glad someone did that. The other discussion belonged elsewhere. 3 hours could be "on time".

 

[montana mike]

#8: 4 hours and 10 minutes lost thru MT and ND this AM. Arrival in CHI last night was around 7:30 PM. This is pretty much the norm now for weekday arrivals in Chicago.

:-(

 

[RRUserious]

Which connections were missed? The LSL wasn't, was it?

 

[Linda T]

Which connections were missed? The LSL wasn't, was it?

No, it leaves at 9:30 PM.

The Cardinal gives me far more onboard time (18 hours) vs the LSL only 4.5, but I also don't want to miss my connection. Is there a precedent in regards to Amtrak eliminating guaranteed connections? Has it happened before? Does that kind of thing generally only apply to reservations not already made? Can it include a trip already in progress? My problem with changing my reservation is it would mean paying for a hotel room, and for a ticket on Greyhound, which could easily come to a couple hundred dollars.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

Linda yes Amtrak has in the past block guaranteed connection to new sales. If you have a ticket that show a guaranteed connection they will take care of you. Of course that might be a bus or coach seat, not the sleeper you booked, but it is on them.

I have no idea why there not breaking new sales guaranteed connection this year like they did last year. Bad feedback?

Or why they just don't block the Capital Limited connection all year. Yes it is extreme but.....

.

 

[Linda T]

Linda yes Amtrak has in the past block guaranteed connection to new sales. If you have a ticket that show a guaranteed connection they will take care of you. Of course that might be a bus or coach seat, not the sleeper you booked, but it is on them.
I have no idea why there not breaking new sales guaranteed connection this year like they did last year. Bad feedback?

Or why they just don't block the Capital Limited connection all year. Yes it is extreme but.....

.

Thank you. That's exactly what I wanted to know. I don't care about a sleeper on the final leg home.

 

[montana mike]

BNSF Update: Noting that current delays thru MT and ND are running right around 4 hours EACH way now on Mondays thru Fridays, with about 2.5 hour delays over the weekends, my BNSF contact stated this should be expected thru about mid-september, when they will finish up one of their projects, with hopefully modest improvements of "only" 2-3 hours per day until the construction season ends in mid to late October.

BTW: today #8 just south of MKE is about 4 hours and 15 minutes late into CHI and #7, now in MT is about 3 1/2 hours behind schedule. So his comments to me appear to be quite accurate.

I looked at the past week of arrivals in CHI and it has been brutal. :-(

 

[RRUserious]

Tempted to go off topic, but predictability is useful.