Fare Buckets discussion 2023 Q4 - 2024

[zephyr17]

Over the years I've found that sleeper buckets are in a rough geometric progression, or each higher bucket is some multiple of the previous one. But the ratio between two adjacent buckets is not constant and increases slightly as the values of successive buckets increase.

Using the SWC/TE Roomette fares (above) as an example, the ratio between the top two buckets is 1.140 and between successively lower pairs of buckets the ratio slowly decreases down to the two lowest buckets found is where it's 1.111. Finding the nth root of the ratio of highest to lowest buckets found yields the average ratio of those (in this case) seven buckets. The root in this case is 6 because there are 6 steps between those seven known buckets. The 6th root of 1624 ÷ 796 is 1.126 and 796 ÷ 1.126 = 707.

This same method was used to estimate the 6 buckets not found between and high and low bucket FR on the Auto Train, but here the 7th root of 1199 ÷ 530 was used because there are 7 steps between those two buckets. How did I know those two buckets found were the high and low? By comparison with those on the previous chart.

There a a few other other ways of estimating a missing bucket, and they give slightly different and usually higher values. Perhaps (in this case) 796 ÷ 1.111 = 716 is a better estimate, but it's just an estimate of the SWC/TE low bucket Roomette fare. Until somebody finds the actual low bucket being offered we won't know for sure. But does anyone really need to know for sure? I, for one, am not anal enough to waste time looking for it. And for all we know, it may never be offered - ever!

Years ago, Coach fares rose in an arithmetic progression in which the difference between successive buckets was some fairly constant value. But coach fares now also rise in a geometric progression as seen in those for the Palmetto. Didn't analyze it's BC fares.

Hope this helps.

Thanks, I was pretty much just curious. I agree it yields a close enough approximation to be useful, which for me is to know about where the lowest possible fare could be in order to judge the fares presented for potential trips. Like you, I doubt we'll seldom, if ever, see a lowest bucket roomette on the TE with only one sleeper. I am kind of surprised they aren't showing up occasionally on the SW Chief though, with it more inventory.

As an aside, I really like the railsforless.us graph, for fares over the requested period. It let's you see in a glance if there are variations.

 

[niemi24s]

Like you, I doubt we'll seldom, if ever, see a lowest bucket roomette on the TE with only one sleeper. I am kind of surprised they aren't showing up occasionally on the SW Chief though, with it more inventory.

But wouldn't the TE/SL combination from CHI to LAX have just as much sleeper inventory as the SWC? But then, it's got only 3/7 the frequency of the SWC.

 

[Sidney]

But wouldn't the TE/SL combination from CHI to LAX have just as much sleeper inventory as the SWC? But then, it's got only 3/7 the frequency of the SWC.

When the TE low bucket roomette was $623 just six months ago, that low bucket could be found on many dates. As I mentioned in an earlier post,I have checked every date for eleven months and the lowest I could find was $989. They still had only one sleeper at $623 . The SW Chief was $600, then $620, then $621 until recently, senior fare. Lowest I can find now is $767.

 

[Keith1951]

I'm going to LA from CHI. I see the longer trip (TE), cost less than the shorter trip (SWC). Just curious as to why?

 

[zephyr17]

Yield management. One has probably sold more of its inventory than the other on your planned day.

According to @niemi24s' chart, the bucket price points are the same for both trains.

I find the situation a little (not a lot) unusual, as the Eagle had less capacity/inventory and the Eagle is higher more often than not as a result.

 

[Keith1951]

This shows three months of CZ Roomette fares:

View attachment 34720

Add $288 for another adult. Deduct $29 for each adult discount.

Please note the As Of date - they could all be different tomorrow.

How do I find Niemi24 list of bucket prices? I'm travelling CHI - LAX April 15, 2025, on the TE or Southwest Chief, which ever has the better price for a bedroom. It's funny that the longer ride is cheaper right now.

 

[trimetbusfan]

How do I find Niemi24 list of bucket prices? I'm travelling CHI - LAX April 15, 2025, on the TE or Southwest Chief, which ever has the better price for a bedroom. It's funny that the longer ride is cheaper right now.

Post in thread 'Long Distance Train Coach & Sleeper Fares (Buckets)'
https://www.amtraktrains.com/thread...oach-sleeper-fares-buckets.77062/post-1041086

 

[Keith1951]

Post in thread 'Long Distance Train Coach & Sleeper Fares (Buckets)'
https://www.amtraktrains.com/thread...oach-sleeper-fares-buckets.77062/post-1041086

Thanks. So, I guess the prices can go higher than the high bucket price listed, correct? That's what I see for my date of travel. Which to me means the high bucket price can have a higher bucket price.

 

[zephyr17]

Ordinarily, I would say that it is far too early to get a good price. However, for months at a time, both near and far out, the lowest available on the SW Chief is a high-ish bucket of $2216, 6th of 8, and the Eagle is mid-high bucket $1951, 5th of 8. I was able to run a month at a time on railsforless.us. Those prices seem frozen. It is odd because even with near term dates in July, I see a date with 7 bedrooms available at $2216 out of 10 total on the SW Chief. I would have thought that that much unsold inventory by now would trigger yield managers to reallocate a bedroom or two into a lower bucket. It does not really look like the trains' yield managers are doing very much, it looks like they set it and forget it. For the Bedrooms at least, didn't look at roomettes.

@niemi24s' chart is at https://www.amtraktrains.com/thread...oach-sleeper-fares-buckets.77062/post-1041086

His research seems to bear out my own findings, because the lowest 4 buckets for the SWC/TE are marked as imputed. That means he could not find actual instances of those buckets, either.

 

[zephyr17]

Thanks. So, I guess the prices can go higher than the high bucket price listed, correct? That's what I see for my date of travel. Which to me means the high bucket price can have a higher bucket price.

Well, there is always the chance that Amtrak increased the bucket prices themselves and @niemi24s hasn't caught up with it yet. But prices he has on the chart line up with actual prices I found on Amtrak.com, which indicates to me he has current pricing captured for SWC/TE.

The top bucket for Bedrooms on the SWC/TE is $2879 for single occupancy. To get the price for two you have to add an additional $290 sleeper rail fare.

For your desired travel date of 4/15/2025 I get $1951 for one adult in a Bedroom, the chart's 5th bucket. Two adults are $2241, $1951+$290 additional sleeper rail fare. While not cheap, that is well below highest bucket of $2879/$3169.

 

[Bob Dylan]

How do I find Niemi24 list of bucket prices? I'm travelling CHI - LAX April 15, 2025, on the TE or Southwest Chief, which ever has the better price for a bedroom. It's funny that the longer ride is cheaper right now.

Take the Chief, you'll have a Sightseer Lounge, Real Food and much better Time Keeping!

The Eaglete is a Sad Shadow of itself with its pathetic consist of 4 Cars, Flex Meals and Terrible Time Keeping due to Bustitutions, Equipment Failures and Freight Interference in East Texas!

 

[Bob Dylan]

Well, there is always the chance that Amtrak increased the bucket prices themselves and @niemi24s hasn't caught up with it yet. But prices he has on the chart line up with actual prices I found on Amtrak.com, which indicates to me he has current pricing captured for SWC/TE.

The top bucket for Bedrooms on the SWC/TE is $2879 for single occupancy. To get the price for two you have to add an additional $290 sleeper rail fare.

For your desired travel date of 4/15/2025 I get $1951 for one adult in a Bedroom, the chart's 5th bucket. Two adults are $2241, $1951+$290 additional sleeper rail fare. While not cheap, that is well below highest bucket of $2879/$3169.

Simply Outrageous!

 

[zephyr17]

Simply Outrageous!

To be somewhat fair, that nearly 3K top is only on few dates relatively close and the already expensive 2K-ish 5th (TE) and 6th (SWC) buckets are widely available. They are clearly not allocating inventory exclusively into the top couple buckets at inventory release, but only a relatively few rooms into those highest buckets that only show up when the middle buckets are sold out. On dates fairly far out, the SWC generally has 5 rooms, half its inventory, in that 6th bucket.

 

[Sidney]

Take the Chief, you'll have a Sightseer Lounge, Real Food and much better Time Keeping!

The Eaglete is a Sad Shadow of itself with its pathetic consist of 4 Cars, Flex Meals and Terrible Time Keeping due to Bustitutions, Equipment Failures and Freight Interference in East Texas!

And no sightseer car.

 

[Bob Dylan]

To be somewhat fair, that nearly 3K top is only on few dates relatively close and the already expensive 2K-ish 5th (TE) and 6th (SWC) buckets are widely available. They are clearly not allocating inventory exclusively into the top couple buckets at inventory release, but only a relatively few rooms into those highest buckets that only show up when the middle buckets are sold out. On dates fairly far out, the SWC generally has 5 rooms, half its inventory, in that 6th bucket.

Point taken, but all those Prices are still Outrageous! YMMV

 

[zephyr17]

Point taken, but all those Prices are still Outrageous! YMMV

Limited inventory and strong demand for a "luxury" good. But having 7 rooms out of 10 open at $2100 on a departure in July indicates to me that their yield management is not all it should be. They ought to be reallocating some of those 7 into lower buckets rather than fire sale them through Bid Up. But somebody seems really averse to allocating any inventory at all to the lower five buckets on the SW Chief irrespective of sales/demand.

 

[Sidney]

Limited inventory and strong demand for a "luxury" good. But having 7 rooms out of 10 open at $2100 on a departure in July indicates to me that their yield management is not all it should be. They ought to be reallocating some of those 7 into lower buckets rather than fire sale them through Bid Up. But somebody seems really averse to allocating any inventory at all to the lower five buckets on the SW Chief irrespective of sales/demand.

Up until a year ago The Texas Eagle from Chicago to LA was $600 senior one person roomette. Low bucket. Anticipating another trip I checked every date through the next 11 months and the lowest I could find was $960. I could see a minor increase in prices, but this is insane.

 

[zephyr17]

Up until a year ago The Texas Eagle from Chicago to LA was $600 senior one person roomette. Low bucket. Anticipating another trip I checked every date through the next 11 months and the lowest I could find was $960. I could see a minor increase in prices, but this is insane.

Lowest actual bucket found per @niemi24s is $796 (adult fare), which is on the SWC, lowest imputed bucket is $706. $960 looks like the $989 4th bucket minus the $29 senior discount. I ran railsforless.us out through the end of April 2025, and my results agree with yours, 4th bucket is the lowest available for the whole time. As with the Bedrooms on the TE, the allocation seems very static. It seems there are at most 2 roomettes allocated to that 4th bucket all the way out, and the allocation doesn't seem to vary for relatively near term dates when the few dates the $989 price shows up over the summer. The yield managers for the TE seem to just set it and leave it.

The SWC has many dates available with 2nd ($796) and 3rd ($884) buckets available, but not the Eagle. That may be a function of inventory. The SWC runs every day, with probably 20 revenue roomettes (28-8 crew) available on each run, meaning an inventory of 140 roomettes each week. The TE probably has 10 revenue roomettes available (14-4 crew) per run with 3 departures a week, meaning an inventory of 30 roomettes each week. Now, there will be more TE roomettes available after San Antonio, since there are only 2 crew SAS-LAX required for the Eagle (and I don't know if they are accommodated in the Sunset or the Eagle sleeper), but for one going from Chicago to LA, that doesn't help.

The fact that the yield management for the Eagle is very static doesn't appear to make a difference. Roomettes on the Eagle are entirely sold out for all of June and I imagine the very cheapest of them was $989. So they appear not to be going out empty. At the end of the day, that is the test. If they don't go out empty at these prices, yield management is working and it is a reasonable pricing strategy, especially with the highly limited revenue inventory in mind.

 

[Sidney]

Lowest actual bucket found per @niemi24s is $796 (adult fare), which is on the SWC, lowest imputed bucket is $706. $960 looks like the $989 4th bucket minus the $29 senior discount. I ran railsforless.us out through the end of April 2025, and my results agree with yours, 4th bucket is the lowest available for the whole time. As with the Bedrooms on the TE, the allocation seems very static. It seems there are at most 2 roomettes allocated to that 4th bucket all the way out, and the allocation doesn't seem to vary for relatively near term dates when the few dates the $989 price shows up over the summer. The yield managers for the TE seem to just set it and leave it.

The SWC has many dates available with 2nd ($796) and 3rd ($884) buckets available, but not the Eagle. That may be a function of inventory. The SWC runs every day, with probably 20 revenue roomettes (28-8 crew) available on each run, meaning an inventory of 140 roomettes each week. The TE probably has 10 revenue roomettes available (14-4 crew) per run with 3 departures a week, meaning an inventory of 30 roomettes each week. Now, there will be more TE roomettes available after San Antonio, since there are only 2 crew SAS-LAX required for the Eagle (and I don't know if they are accommodated in the Sunset or the Eagle sleeper), but for one going from Chicago to LA, that doesn't help.

The fact that the yield management for the Eagle is very static doesn't appear to make a difference. Roomettes on the Eagle are entirely sold out for all of June and I imagine the very cheapest of them was $989. So they appear not to be going out empty. At the end of the day, that is the test. If they don't go out empty at these prices, yield management is working and it is a reasonable pricing strategy, especially with the highly limited revenue inventory in mind.

Thanks for the analysis. As long as sleepers remain full, nothing will change. I also wonder if there are people like me who would pay the $600 fare and will not pay the $960 fare? Unfortunately I would imagine there are more that would pay it.

One of Amtrak’s bargains was leaving from Bloomington Il and heading to LA on the Eagle. For years the senior roomette fare was $448.Now it’s $714. Still a bargain, considering if you pay Coach from Chicago to Bloomington, a two and a half hour ride, you save $230

 

[Keith1951]

Take the Chief, you'll have a Sightseer Lounge, Real Food and much better Time Keeping!

The Eaglete is a Sad Shadow of itself with its pathetic consist of 4 Cars, Flex Meals and Terrible Time Keeping due to Bustitutions, Equipment Failures and Freight Interference in East Texas!

Take the Chief, you'll have a Sightseer Lounge, Real Food and much better Time Keeping!

The Eaglete is a Sad Shadow of itself with its pathetic consist of 4 Cars, Flex Meals and Terrible Time Keeping due to Bustitutions, Equipment Failures and Freight Interference in East Texas!

I have heard that term before. Why are some calling the Eagle, the Eaglete?

 

[zephyr17]

Thanks for the analysis. As long as sleepers remain full, nothing will change. I also wonder if there are people like me who would pay the $600 fare and will not pay the $960 fare? Unfortunately I would imagine there are more that would pay it.

One of Amtrak’s bargains was leaving from Bloomington Il and heading to LA on the Eagle. For years the senior roomette fare was $448.Now it’s $714. Still a bargain, considering if you pay Coach from Chicago to Bloomington, a two and a half hour ride, you save $230

Well, in a way, I am one. I won't pay high bucket, but I will pay a middle bucket if I have to. I am resigned to low buckets being few and far between so don't really expect to find them, though I still try pretty hard. Happily, the trains I usually ride both have more inventory and seem to have much more active/dynamic yield management that appears more responsive to weak demand than whoever/whatever handles SWC/TE. So I can usually find big drops at the 4-6 month mark.

I don't have to ride the Eagle. I'd have to do it deliberately, it isn't on a logical path for me for anywhere I want to go. Between Chicago and LA the SW Chief is my choice and a nostalgic favorite. Though the Eagle is the only LD in the current network I haven't ridden, I won't ride it in its current wretched state. A value proposition featuring terrible TV dinners, no Sightseer and a long ride pretty much stuck in my roomette would not be compelling even at half or less the lowest current price.

 

[Bob Dylan]

I have heard that term before. Why are some calling the Eagle, the Eaglete?

For all of the above reasons we say the Eagle has has its wings clipped by Ammangament, so it needs to learn how to fly again .

Hence the name "Eaglete".( Baby Eagle,l

 

[Keith1951]

Thanks, I was pretty much just curious. I agree it yields a close enough approximation to be useful, which for me is to know about where the lowest possible fare could be in order to judge the fares presented for potential trips. Like you, I doubt we'll seldom, if ever, see a lowest bucket roomette on the TE with only one sleeper. I am kind of surprised they aren't showing up occasionally on the SW Chief though, with it more inventory.

As an aside, I really like the railsforless.us graph, for fares over the requested period. It let's you see in a glance if there are variations.

All y'all who have been checking these fares for years are messing with my mind. Doing all this figuring to find out what bucket is due, and which comes next. I see above someone using the nth root to see the difference between the 6 buckets, math is now involved to find a lower price? I am lost as to what you all are talking about. All I want to know is when the TE bucket will get lower between now and April 15, 2025, CHO - LAX. As of today, its $2183 for 2 seniors. I would take the shorter SWC if it was a lesser price. Is there a chance the TE will lower its price? Can you use that math to figure this out? lol

 

[zephyr17]

All y'all who have been checking these fares for years are messing with my mind. Doing all this figuring to find out what bucket is due, and which comes next. I see above someone using the nth root to see the difference between the 6 buckets, math is now involved to find a lower price? I am lost as to what you all are talking about. All I want to know is when the TE bucket will get lower between now and April 15, 2025, CHO - LAX. As of today, its $2183 for 2 seniors. I would take the shorter SWC if it was a lesser price. Is there a chance the TE will lower its price? Can you use that math to figure this out? lol

No bucket is ever "due" or "comes next". Inventory allocation is what Amtrak yield management does and its inner workings are a mystery. Inventory is rarely allocated across all buckets and frequently skips some. @niemi24s just helps everyone by figuring out where the current bucket price points are and publishing it. That way you know where the current price is relative to the possible prices and how bad a deal you might be getting (and therefore whether or not to buy). I have developed very rough rules of thumb I use myself for gauging when and whether yield managers for a given train are likely to reallocate inventory into a lower bucket. Whether or not they actually do it, when they do it if they do it, and which buckets they reallocate inventory to are no sure thing and the best anyone can do is educated guessing.

In any case, it looks like they have reallocated inventory. All dates in April for the TE, except three, now have 5 Bedrooms, the entire inventory, available at the 5th bucket, $1951,down from the 6th bucket, $2216. The three dates with higher prices are 4/1, 4 Bedrooms at 6th bucket ($2216), 2/22, 4 Bedrooms at 6th bucket ($2216) and 4/4, 3 Bedrooms at 7th bucket ($2523). The situation is now reversed, with the SWC in April being mostly in the 6th bucket of $2216 with a few dates being in the 7th bucket, $2523.

Since this inventory is 11 months out, it looks to me like somebody or something zigged when they should have zagged when they released it, because it looks like almost a wholesale reversal between the two trains on very recently released inventory.

Finally, "Eaglet" and/or "Eaglette" are derisive diminutives because the Eagle is a crappy train. The leading contender for "worst long distance train". Plus it is short.

 

[railiner]

For all of the above reasons we say the Eagle has has its wings clipped by Ammangament, so it needs to learn how to fly again .

Hence the name "Eaglete".( Baby Eagle,l

There actually was an “Eaglet” or “Eaglette” train, once upon a time…

http://www.trainweb.org/screamingea...he Lincoln to Union, Nebraska,trains #605-606).