How will TS Elsa affect the Silvers this week?

[jis]

Here in JAX Beach, the auto bridges over the Intracoastal Waterway are closed at 40mph, but who knows what the freight lines will do.
Another concern might be flooding. The ground here is saturated and the creeks are full (or overflowing) today from days of showers.

2"-4" over the next five days may do a job on them, hopefully not too terrible.

The Causeways around here in Melbourne are supposed to close when there is sustained wind of 40mph or higher, or when they need to do so to enforce evacuation of the Barrier Islands. However, they seem to depend on actual observed wind speeds rather than forecast. For example they never closed anything for Isaias AFAIR, even though at various times we were deep in the cone with dire hurricane forecasts even one day out. In actuality it passed us by quite harmlessly and the unleashed itself further up the coast.

 

[Qapla]

I'll keep an eye out to see if they remove cross arms near me - just east of Gainesville

 

[jis]

I'll keep an eye out to see if they remove cross arms near me - just east of Gainesville

That would be an interesting data point since Alachua County will most likely get at least a TS Watch, which might get upgraded to a Warning later. Marion County to your South is already under TS Watch. But all that is Tuesday night through Wednesday. It is also quite possible that Duval County (JAX) might get at least a TS Watch if not a Warning, all being on the right/dirty side of the track, and close enough to the projected track. The question will revolve around when they think it will go down to a TD from a TS.

Incidentally @pennyk Lake County to your immediate West (of Orange County) is under TS Watch already too, but Orange County possibly may not get any if the current track trends continue.

Here are the current watches and warnings in Central Florida from the Melbourne NWS Office



And here is NE Florida from the Jacksonville NWS Office. Of course by 8pm today I expect this picture to change considerably.

 

[Bob Dylan]

That would be an interesting data point since Alachua County will most likely get at least a TS Watch, which might get upgraded to a Warning later. Marion County to your South is already under TS Watch. But all that is Tuesday noight through Wednesday. It is also quite possible that Duval County (JAX) might get at least a TS Watch if not a Warning, all being on the right/dirty side of the track, and close enough to the projected track. The question will revolve around when they think it will go down to a TD from a TS.

Incidentally @pennyk Lake County to your immediate West (of Orange County) is under TS Watch already too, but Orange County possibly may not get any if the current track trends continue.

Here are the current watches and warnings in Central Florida from the Melbourne NWS Office

View attachment 23455

And here is NE Florida from the Jacksonville NWS Office. Of course by 8pm today I expect this picture to change considerably.

View attachment 23456

Hope yall don't get any damage and your trip to the OTOL Fest happens!

 

[jis]

Hope yall don't get any damage and your trip to the OTOL Fest happens!

There is unlikely to be any leftover effect affecting the OTOL trip, in spite of CSX They will have a couple of days to recover, unless of course their trestle over the Savannah River Marsh collapses into it. or something like that.

 

[pennyk]

Update from National Hurricane Center. I am still hoping that winds will not be strong enough and that CSX will not remove cross arms.

 

[pennyk]

..and another update. It still looks to me that there may be 40+ mph winds along the Silver routes.

 

[nanavc]

Hubby and I are headed home to Lakeland FL today from DC. If they do stop service in Jacksonville, do we just wait at station for weather to clear and they put us on next train ? This is a first for us, never had to worry on any of our other trips on the train. Thanks for any info.

 

[JoeBas]

FWIW, looks like NHC is extremely ummmmm... cautious.... with their forecast for this system.

To be honest, I'm not even sure it has a center of circulation anymore.

 

[Carolina2001]

I’m on silver 91 now. We are running on schedule. Hopefully we get on and off the west coast before weather gets too bad. I think the 92 train today and 91 tomorrow May have the bigger issue looking at timing of storm

 

[jis]

FWIW, looks like NHC is extremely ummmmm... cautious.... with their forecast for this system.

To be honest, I'm not even sure it has a center of circulation anymore.

There is a vague naked center of circulation to the west of all the wet blob action. I think they may be a bit antsy about the projected sheer materializing at the modeled levels.

They did something like this with Isaias when it passed by us. We basically got nothing, while they kept talking about high end TS borderline Hurricane and what not. Isaias got clobbered by here by dust and sheer. It never managed to stack properly and carried on like the leaning tower of Pizza by here.

I’m on silver 91 now. We are running on schedule. Hopefully we get on and off the west coast before weather gets too bad. I think the 92 train today and 91 tomorrow May have the bigger issue looking at timing of storm

The usually better models at this stage like the HWRF suggest that wind speed will not be a problem along the route. Very severe rain may be. 91 will be well past Tampa before winds start going up much. 92 will be there nearer the thick of things later this evening.

 

[JoeBas]

There is a vague naked center of circulation to the west of all the wet blob action. I think they may be a bit antsy about the projected sheer materializing at the modeled levels.

Yeah, but the low-level and mid-level (what you can see on EYW radar) centers are completely de-coupled. This thing ain't going nowhere intensity-wise unless that gets fixed, and it's quickly running out of real estate and time.

 

[jis]

Yeah, but the low-level and mid-level (what you can see on EYW radar) centers are completely de-coupled. This thing ain't going nowhere intensity-wise unless that gets fixed, and it's quickly running out of real estate and time.

Yup. I don't know why they feel they might get coupled down the line. Even when HWRF briefly shows 998mB they are not coupled and wind sheer is still very much present though a bit lower.

 

[pennyk]

I’m on silver 91 now. We are running on schedule. Hopefully we get on and off the west coast before weather gets too bad. I think the 92 train today and 91 tomorrow May have the bigger issue looking at timing of storm

Good luck. Thanks for checking in. It is cloudy in Orlando now, but no rain or strong wind.

 

[pennyk]

looks like the track is getting closer to the west coast of Florida and I heard it is moving slower and gaining strength.

 

[jis]

I think NHC wants the storm to really spin at 70mph once more before it can't any more. They have been moving the 70mph forward in time by 12 hours with new forecasts. But now they have it at the edge of landfall, and no more room to move forward

looks like the track is getting closer to the west coast of Florida and I heard it is moving slower and gaining strength.

At the 1500Z (11am) update it was still a 60mph storm. If the previous forecast had held it should have been 65mph by now.

Here is what NHC has to say about strength:

The environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is not ideal for
strengthening, with moderate westerly shear and some dry mid-level
air. However, upper-level divergence ahead of a trough over the
east-central Gulf could result in some intensification of the
system during the next 12-24 hours. The official forecast
continues to show the cyclone nearing hurricane strength while it
approaches the north Florida Gulf coast, but this is at the high
end of the numerical intensity guidance.

The last sentence is the crux of the matter. They are keeping the possibility of a strengthening a bit on the cards, but it by far is not the most likely thing to happen.

The wind speed projections in the 1500Z (11am) advisory are:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 24.9N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.6N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

The 70mph is just off shore at the Big Bend area just before projected landfall tomorrow morning at 8am (07/1200Z)

Incidentally you can read the entire NHC discussion at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/061446.shtml?
Which you can get to by clicking on the "Discussion" button on the "Tropical Storm Elsa" page too.

 

[JoeBas]

Yeah, we're currently carrying the storm at like 45 MPH, with no strengthening before landfall.

 

[Brian Battuello]

At the moment, Elsa is a fairly routine early-season tropical storm. Shouldn't be any problem for Amtrak unless some idiot in Washington goes all cancel-crazy. Going to be some rain and a bit of wind, but nothing a 400,000 pound locomotive can't handle.

Now if there is a huge amount of rainfall, might be some track issues.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

At the moment, Elsa is a fairly routine early-season tropical storm. Shouldn't be any problem for Amtrak unless some idiot in Washington goes all cancel-crazy. Going to be some rain and a bit of wind, but nothing a 400,000 pound locomotive can't handle.

Now if there is a huge amount of rainfall, might be some track issues.

Nobody's concerned about the train, they're concerned about the grade crossing gates being taken down. That could cause a cancellation. If not a cancellation then very slow travel as the conductor will need to detrain at each grade crossing and flag the crossing.

 

[jruff001]

Shouldn't be any problem for Amtrak unless some idiot in Washington goes all cancel-crazy.

More likely someone in Jacksonville would be making that call.

 

[Brian Battuello]

>gate crossings

Is that really the limiting factor these days? After over 100 years of automated gate crossings we can't design one that stays attached in a moderate wind? I don't think I've ever seen a removed gate crossing, but nothing would surprise me these days. Are they afraid they will fly away and hit someone in the head?

 

[jis]

Nobody's concerned about the train, they're concerned about the grade crossing gates being taken down. That could cause a cancellation. If not a cancellation then very slow travel as the conductor will need to detrain at each grade crossing and flag the crossing.

Actually within Florida, the only portion of the route that is under a Tropical Storm Warning or Watch is the one from Lakeland to Tampa. For the rest, currently there are no warnings or watches. OTOH there is a TS watch on the segment between Charleston and Florida border.

At least today so far none of those Warnings and Watches are having any effect on operations. If they were going to cancel anything they'd have done so already.

 

[chrsjrcj]

I'm shocked that even the Silver Star is still scheduled to run to Tampa tomorrow.

I'd expect delays on the Silvers in Florida tomorrow anyway, since the east side of any storm is usually known for tornadoes and more severe weather. Already seen a few tornado warnings down here, but most of the worst weather isn't quite making it to the east coast (as of yet).

 

[chrsjrcj]

And just like that...

Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...RECON FINDS ELSA STRONGER...

Recent Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that the Elsa has strengthened and maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A special
advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the intermediate
advisory to reflect this change and to issue a hurricane warning for
a portion of the west coast of Florida.

 

[jis]

And just like that...

Would be interesting to see how they change the watches and warnings inland.

How are things at your place. You should be close to the worst of it or past the worst of it since the center of the storm is almost abeam of you and the worst is in the front right quadrant usually?

Incidentally, you can watch what the storm is doing in real time satellite image at:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir