How will TS Elsa affect the Silvers this week?

[chrsjrcj]

Would be interesting to see how they change the watches and warnings inland.

How are things at your place. You should be past the worst of it since the center of the storm is abeam of you and the worst is in the front right quadrant usually?

Barely even a rain drop, just a light breeze. Looking at the radar there are some pretty heavy bands about 20 miles west of here, but they aren't quite making it far enough east to me.

 

[John Bredin]

>gate crossings

Is that really the limiting factor these days? After over 100 years of automated gate crossings we can't design one that stays attached in a moderate wind? I don't think I've ever seen a removed gate crossing, but nothing would surprise me these days. Are they afraid they will fly away and hit someone in the head?

Breakaway crossing arms are a feature of crossing gates, so I'd imagine the concern is exactly that: a crossing arm designed to break away when struck by a vehicle instead breaking away when struck by a heavy-enough wind.

 

[Brian Battuello]

Good point. Maybe in the olde days they weren't so break-away. Used to be a car would win over a piece of plywood, but not so much anymore.

 

[JoeBas]

I have to say that the risk of impacts to travel on the Silvers is increasing.... not because the risk of this being a hurricane is increasing, but because the risk of it being called a hurricane is increasing, and what it's called is what the RR's will take action based on.

 

[McIntyre2K7]

I have to say that the risk of impacts to travel on the Silvers is increasing.... not because the risk of this being a hurricane is increasing, but because the risk of it being called a hurricane is increasing, and what it's called is what the RR's will take action based on.

Correct. The latest from the NOAA has it at 70mph and they expect it to be a hurricane within a few hours. I reached out to Amtrak via Twitter regarding Silver Service but I haven’t heard back yet.

 

[jis]

But notwithstanding all that it will be gone for a day and a half or two by the time @pennyk and I board 98 around Orlando on Friday. There should be no effect on Friday. Most of the effect if any will be late this evening through tomorrow night.

 

[JoeBas]

Correct. The latest from the NOAA has it at 70mph and they expect it to be a hurricane within a few hours. I reached out to Amtrak via Twitter regarding Silver Service but I haven’t heard back yet.

That 70 MPH is based off of a FL wind which isn't translating to the surface due to the vertical structure, and an SFMR report of 50 knot winds where at the same time the actual OBSERVATION was reporting 26 knots, again largely due to the vertical structure.

As mentioned above yesterday though, when it comes to hurricanes... perceptions dictate real world actions.

 

[Qapla]

But notwithstanding all that it will be gone for a day and a half or two by the time @pennyk and I board 98 around Orlando on Friday. There should be no effect on Friday. Most of the effect if any will be late this evening through tomorrow night.

That may be true of here in Florida, but the storm remnants will still affect Ga, SC, NC and maybe even further north - they think it may ride the coast all the way up the eastern US and that could have an impact on the Silvers beyond what Elsa does on the Gulf Coast.

 

[jis]

That may be true of here in Florida, but the storm remnants will still affect Ga, SC, NC and maybe even further north - they think it may ride the coast all the way up the eastern US and that could have an impact on the Silvers beyond what Elsa does on the Gulf Coast.

The storm will be 100 miles east of Long Island Friday morning and east of Maritime Canada Saturday morning. I wouldn’t worry about any remaining effects on the route of the Silvers when we travel that way.

 

[Brian Battuello]

For storm train stories, I highly recommend "The Railroad that Died at Sea", Patrick Parks. Get the new revised edition.

 

[chrsjrcj]

That 70 MPH is based off of a FL wind which isn't translating to the surface due to the vertical structure, and an SFMR report of 50 knot winds where at the same time the actual OBSERVATION was reporting 26 knots, again largely due to the vertical structure.

As mentioned above yesterday though, when it comes to hurricanes... perceptions dictate real world actions.

Apparently a buoy recorded a 58 kt (67 mph) sustained wind, which seems to verify the NHC's 70 mph estimate.

 

[pennyk]

Elsa is a hurricane again.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

Elsa is a hurricane again.

Penny, Elsa will be a memory by the time you board the train.

 

[pennyk]

Penny, Elsa will be a memory by the time you board the train.

I am still worried about CSX - but I am proceeding on the assumption that I will be leaving town on Friday.

 

[west point]

A while back in another location a truck ran into a crossing gate I was unfamiliar with. Instead of the gate breaking the attach point of the gate did a swing around toward the track . Local Train stopped short , conductor got out pushed the gate back toward proper position and the attachment locked it in with a loud snap.

Had me puzzled . wanted to go back and look at the mechanism but unable, It may have some breakaway value enabling it to reset once near the proper position ?

Have noticed CSX does not maintain their wind guards around here that are only about 10 inches and a "V" just about a 30 degree angle. many gates miss the "V"

 

[Willbridge]

Just for comparison, here's Greyhound Lines:

July 6, 2021, 5:15pm CT

Due to Tropical Storm Elsa, we will be cancelling several trips starting July 6, 2021. As these cancellations occur, we will update the details here. As of now, the confirmed cancellations are below.

July 6, 2021

Trips Into Tampa, FL
3701 Orlando, FL to Tampa, FL
3703 Orlando, FL to Tampa, FL
3707 Orlando, FL to Tampa, FL
3709 Orlando, FL to Tampa, FL
3754 Miami, FL to Tampa, FL
3790 Miami, FL to Tampa, FL
3729 Tallahassee, FL to Tampa, FL

Trips Out of Tampa, FL
3702 Tampa, FL to Orlando, FL
3708 Tampa, FL to Orlando, FL
3710 Tampa, FL to Orlando, FL
3734 Tampa, FL to Orlando, FL
3749 Tampa, FL to Miami, FL
3799 Tampa, FL to Miami, FL
3752 Tampa, FL to Tallahassee, FL

Schedule 3711 to Key West, FL from:
Miami, FL
Miami Airln Term (E), FL
Key Largo (E), FL
Islamorada (E), FL
Marathon (E), FL
Big Pine Key (E), FL

Schedule 3714 from Key West, FL to:
Big Pine Key (E), FL
Marathon (E), FL
Islamorada (E), FL
Key Largo (E), FL
Miami Airln Term (E), FL
Miami, FL

July 7, 2021

Schedule 3711 to Key West, FL from:
Miami, FL
Miami Airln Term (E), FL
Key Largo (E), FL
Islamorada (E), FL
Marathon (E), FL
Big Pine Key (E), FL

Schedule 3714 from Key West, FL to:
Big Pine Key (E), FL
Marathon (E), FL
Islamorada (E), FL
Key Largo (E), FL
Miami Airln Term (E), FL
Miami, FL

Trips Into Tampa, FL
3701 Orlando, FL to Tampa, FL
3703 Orlando, FL to Tampa, FL
3707 Orlando, FL to Tampa, FL
3709 Orlando, FL to Tampa, FL
3754 Miami, FL to Tampa, FL
3790 Miami, FL to Tampa, FL
3729 Tallahassee, FL to Tampa, FL

Trips Out of Tampa, FL
3702 Tampa, FL to Orlando, FL
3708 Tampa, FL to Orlando, FL
3710 Tampa, FL to Orlando, FL
3734 Tampa, FL to Orlando, FL
3749 Tampa, FL to Miami, FL
3799 Tampa, FL to Miami, FL
3752 Tampa, FL to Tallahassee, FL

Trips Into Tallahassee, FL
1247 Orlando, FL to Tallahassee, FL
1256 Mobile, AL to Tallahassee, FL
1258 Mobile, AL to Tallahassee, FL
1287 Orlando, FL to Tallahassee, FL
3752 Tampa, FL to Tallahassee, FL
3806 Jacksonville, FL to Tallahassee, FL
3863 Atlanta, GA to Tallahassee, FL
4711 Birmingham, AL to Tallahassee, FL

Trips Out of Tallahassee, FL
1247 Tallahassee, FL to Mobile, AL
1256 Tallahassee, FL to Orlando, FL
1258 Tallahassee, FL to Orlando, FL
1287 Tallahassee, FL to Mobile, AL
3729 Tallahassee, FL to Tampa, FL
3803 Tallahassee, FL to Jacksonville, FL
4702 Tallahassee, FL to Birmingham, AL

If you are traveling on these schedules, please contact our customer care team at 1-833-233-8507 and they will be happy to reschedule your trip.

 

[pennyk]

Thunderstorms and rain here in Orlando. The tornado watch just expired. Elsa is no longer a hurricane, and the last I heard, has not made landfall.

 

[jis]

So far in Melbourne we just got some gentle breeze and a few drizzles out of this one. We expect more of that today from the tail bands.

Looks like the NEC might be in for a bit of a weak Tropical Storm Thursday through early Friday, now that the track has shifted further West!

 

[SwedeC]

Amtrak shows 92 departing Tampa on time, arriving WAS on time.

 

[jis]

Amtrak shows 92 departing Tampa on time, arriving WAS on time.

At this point I would be surprised if anything is cancelled in Florida. If anything was going to happen it was yesterday, and it did not.

Now the action moves to Georgia and the Carolinas, I suspect nothing will get canceled there either. So far nothing is, and I think it will remain that way.

As of 11am (7/7/21) Most of the Warnings and Watches have been dropped in Central Florida. Only one is still up in the far northwest corner by the Gulf.

 

[Qapla]

Else has made landfall near Steinhatchee and is preceding towards Georgia and the east coast. The impact on the Florida portion of the Silvers seems to be past tense. Time will tell if there is any significant impact on the east coast route as it heads for NY


BTW - Despite those on TWC pronouncing it as "Stine-hatchee" it is pronounced "Steen-hatchee"

 

[pennyk]

Else has made landfall near Steinhatchee and is preceding towards Georgia and the east coast. The impact on the Florida portion of the Silvers seems to be past tense. Time will tell if there is any significant impact on the east coast route as it heads for NY


BTW - Despite those on TWC pronouncing it as "Stine-hatchee" it is pronounced "Steen-hatchee"

Based on the status maps, the Silvers in Florida are more or less running on time.

We have had just wind here today so far. You, @Qapla , likely will be impacted more than I will. I was listening to NPR earlier and the reporter pronounced Steinhatchee wrong also. Those of us who have lived in the Gainesville area, know how to pronounce it. Be safe and stay dry.

 

[Qapla]

Jim Cantore on TWC admitted he mispronounced Steinhatchee and used the correct way to say it this morning when talking about where Elsa came on shore