It looks like my Autotrain trip is likely to arrive in Florida right about when a hurricane or tropical storm is hitting the area. Does Amtrak do anything special or different under these conditions? Thanks.
Hurricane/Tropical/Subtropical storm Nicole and Amtrak
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By the time a hurricane gets to Sanford, it's barely a tropical storm normally. Put an umbrella in your carry-on. You should be fine.
I had a trip canceled because of Hurriance Ian and I am scheduled to travel this week (my rescheduled trip), so I am hoping Nicole will miss Florida.
The St. Johns River and Lake Monroe in Sanford were greatly affected by Hurricane Ian. I do not know how much more rain that area can handle without overflowing the river and lake. I live in Orlando and am watching the local news. I believe the worst weather will be coastal Brevard County (southeast of Sanford) Wednesday - Friday.
If winds are anticipated to be high and/or tracks will be flooded or damaged, Amtrak will cancel trains. I am hoping that will not happen since I do not want to get "stuck" in NYC.
I hope you are able to travel and enjoy your trip to Florida.
I’m not so sure. As @pennyk says Amtrak is very cautious if severe weather could affect the safe operation of trains. I live near Sanford and current weather alert says:
Thank you. I was considering changing arrival to the following day, but that might not help, if the worst weather is still occurring Friday. Appreciate your response.
Thank you Palmland. I was considering changing my arrival to Friday a.m. in FL, but we may also encounter the storm coming up the coast. I will decide tomorrow, if Amtrak hasn't already decided!
chrsjrcj
OBS Chief
Im expecting my trip on Friday to be cancelled. Last night I booked a refundable flight for Saturday just in case, although looking at the weather forecast for New York City does not look promising for Saturday either!
I actually considered booking a refundable flight months ago when I made my train reservation, just in case Amtrak couldn’t restore the Meteor. Really kicking myself for not doing so earlier, but who would’ve expected a hurricane in the middle of November?
I actually considered booking a refundable flight months ago when I made my train reservation, just in case Amtrak couldn’t restore the Meteor. Really kicking myself for not doing so earlier, but who would’ve expected a hurricane in the middle of November?
I lived in Winter Park and if it's coming in this weak, you know by the time it hits Sanford, it's a just a rainstorm.
west point
Engineer
Remember it wil be CSX that cancells. That usually happens by signal maintainers removing all crossing gate arms That esentially cancels all Amtrak trains. The proposed Nichole track as of 1600 today takes it near JAX and along the Georgia coast.
NWS Hurricane Center is showing it as strengthening to hurricane force by the time it makes landfall Thursday morning in the Melbourne/Cape Canaveral area. It would then weaken as it moves over land then continue up the coast getting to the mid-Atlantic by Saturday. They are still showing it as a storm not a depression by Saturday so we have to be concerned in the Northeast about another Sandy type storm.
jis
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Its path will change some more as the final configuration of the High Pressure Ridge and the Trough behind it in the north reaches its final state. Those are providing the steering currents. For now it will be a Wednesday night Thursday morning event in Central Florida. It will be long gone from Central Florida by Friday. The bad weather is mostly front loaded.
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What CSX will do is hard to fathom. It will be a tropical depression with wind speeds possibly below the tropical storm threshold. We don’t know exactly where it will go for sure. The cone is very wide.
By the time it gets to NYC area past Saturday it might strengthen to an extra tropical storm with tropical storm like wind speeds according to current forecast.
As they say, the difference between a high end tropical storm and a Cat 1 hurricane is 1mph.
It will not be Sandy type anything. Sandy was a mid Category 1 Hurricane. This will at most be a low end extra tropical storm. It will have a very large wind field like Sandy though, but will be a very fast mover, unlike Sandy.
Didn’t Sandy merge with a storm from the west when it reached the mid-Atlantic which caused it to be Super Sandy?As they say, the difference between a high end tropical storm and a Cat 1 hurricane is 1mph.
It will not be Sandy type anything. Sandy was a mid Category 1 Hurricane. This will at most be a low end extra tropical storm. It will have a very large wind field like Sandy though, but will be a very fast mover, unlike Sandy.
Ryan
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It can't be that bad, NASA's even leaving SLS on the pad to ride it out. What could possibly go wrong? 
jis
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That simply suggests that no one believes that we will see wind speeds anywhere near 86mph. I don;t see anyone putting up shutters around here yet, and the center of circulation currently is supposed pass right over us. But as I said that could change in the next 24 hours, since the thing is just making its first turn, with two more to go. It is another one of those hitting the shore at a sharp angle, so a slight deviation in path can change the point of landfall by a lot.It can't be that bad, NASA's even leaving SLS on the pad to ride it out. What could possibly go wrong?
Also remember that the actual path can be anywhere within the cone with equal probability with an overall probability of 67%. There is still a 33% probability that it will fall outside the cone, as we learned so painfully in the case of Ian.
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We have reservations on the Silver Star (no. 92) from Deland to BAL on Thursday evening. If the train is cancelled will we be notified by Amtrak and will they do the rescheduling? Hopefully not necessary but.....!
Thanks!
Thanks!
The National weather service forecast for Baltimore says that we're just going to get some rain from the fringes of Nichole on Friday. This is clearly no Sandy, and I suspect that service on the NEC will be OK on Friday.
Yall stay Safe!!!
jis
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We now have a Hurricane Warning which was expected. No surprise there.
Qapla
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Nicole has officially been declared a tropical storm, no longer sub-tropical.
When Ian landed, many did not expect landfall where it actually hit - nor did some expect the extent of the damage left in its wake. At this point, it is still too early to guess how much damage Nicole could leave behind once passed.
When Ian landed, many did not expect landfall where it actually hit - nor did some expect the extent of the damage left in its wake. At this point, it is still too early to guess how much damage Nicole could leave behind once passed.
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Just got word that train #92, the Silver Star, has been cancelled for Thursday.
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Silver service from the North is turning at JAX on Thursday. So no service between JAX and Miami/Tampa on that day.
We know that it will hit somewhere between Jupiter and Daytona Beach with confidence of 67%. There is no way to know anything more precise than that. There is still a 33% chance that it could be outside that stretch. Things will become clearer by tomorrow evening.
The strength will probably not be any greater than Category 1, that too low end. This will be nothing like Ian.
Right now the center of the cone passes right over my town, but that really does not mean a heck of a lot. Landfall is still 40 or so hours away and the steering currents at present are not really all that stable.
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Qapla
Engineer
This is true - no one is thinking it will be as destructive as Ian. However, that does not negate the possibility of wind damage, erosion and flooding causing delays and/or damage to trackage and rail ROW
They have already issued hurricane warning to some of the Florida coast.
I am not on either coast, but the general track across the state does cover where I do live - we have been warned to expect power outages
jis
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Anything is possible, but realistically there will be huge amount of water damage on the shoreline and flooding damage inland, with predicted storm surge of 3-5'. OTOH it is unlikely that any rail ROW will be significantly damaged. General wind damage will be commensurate with Category 1 Hurricane rapidly reducing in strength to Tropical Storm after landfall.
As I mentioned elsewhere that was not a surprise. Usually Hurricane Watches will get promoted to hurricane Warning 48 hours before arrival unless for some reason the storm collapses.
As I mentioned before, the center of the cone passes over my town and I live ten miles inland from the barrier islands. Maximum sustained winds projected around the center of the circulation by the time it gets here is somewhere between 50-60mph. However I would not be surprised if it is a bit more, but I would also suspect that the actual path may not be anywhere near here.I am not on either coast, but the general track across the state does cover where I do live - we have been warned to expect power outages
As for losing power, there is always a first time I suppose but so far I have lived through two Category 3 storms and a smattering of lower Category and Tropical Storms without losing power or internet. But we'll see.
Depending on how things look Wednesday around noon time, I will decide on whether to put up shutters.
Meanwhile Amtrak will not be running in Florida south of JAX tomorrow, the Silvers from the North turning back at JAX.
