Is commuter rail at its plateau or declining?

[MIrailfan]

Many people say it is because of the work from home movement started after COVID. I notice it in reduced Metra and BART ridership. Thoughts?

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

You mean started during Covid.

There is a fundamental change in how we do business, from the cost of housing, cost of office space. The widespread of high speed internet, and jobs that have no real need to be centrally located.

So yes transit is in transition. Where we go, and how we get there is in flux.

Additional bonus is the view on life, and the ease and plentiful possibilities of making money.

 

[MIrailfan]

You mean started during Covid.

There is a fundamental change in how we do business, from the cost of housing, cost of office space. The widespread of high speed internet, and jobs that have no real need to be centrally located.

So yes transit is in transition. Where we go, and how we get there is in flux.

Additional bonus is the view on life, and the ease and plentiful possibilities of making money.

They may need to reinvent themselves, like adding more weekend/night service and less rush hour trains.

 

[caravanman]

Additional bonus is the view on life, and the ease and plentiful possibilities of making money.

Do tell me more about the plentiful possibilities of making money!

Here in the UK, "working from home" is a major thing now, so the need for a traditional "commute" to the office environment is much less.

The rush hour rail traffic will probably consist more of non office staff these days?

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

Do tell me more about the plentiful possibilities of making money!

When the 20 something crowd is making 100k a year. I am starting to think my profession life was completely wrong.

Here in the UK, "working from home" is a major thing now, so the need for a traditional "commute" to the office environment is much less.

The rush hour rail traffic will probably consist more of non office staff these days?

No office workers, no support services needed. So now nobody travels on the train/subway.

Here in the US, there talk of a crash, both in housing and office space. Apartments building that refused to drop their rent, sitting half empty. Commercial property vacant and left to rot. This might not end well.

 

[BlackDiamond]

In the long run this may be a good thing if transit can get out of the mode of having to provide facilities and a fleet that is intensively used just for a couple of hours on weekdays and instead had a more balanced load with some commuters plus people traveling for shopping, tourism, etc.

 

[railiner]

You mean started during Covid.

There is a fundamental change in how we do business, from the cost of housing, cost of office space. The widespread of high speed internet, and jobs that have no real need to be centrally located.

So yes transit is in transition. Where we go, and how we get there is in flux.

Additional bonus is the view on life, and the ease and plentiful possibilities of making money.

What will be even more of an impact, is the Artificial Intelligence progression, that may eliminate lots of jobs...

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

Metra ridership is going up - they are adding trains back into the schedule. We are way behind the rest of the world in returning to the office - the post-Covid chaos in downtowns isn't helping, but a lot of bigger companies are starting to push and enforce back to the office at least three days. My commute has been getting busier.

There are also a lot of new commuter systems coming online or being proposed (in North America) at the moment, so I don't think it's quite plateauing, though there is a need for more non-rush hour trains.

I'd like to know where the empty rental apartments are - there is a massive shortage of rental units since there are very few being built - banks won't grant loans so the financing is really convoluted and complex on the units being built.

 

[caravanman]

Certainly it would be great if the transit fleets can be used for a wider customer base than mostly commuters, but I wonder if that would generate enough revenue to keep the systems in business?

Occupations have always changed, or been lost, sometimes due to technological advances, not always to the satisfaction of employees. Ned Ludd from here in Nottingham was upset, back in the day...

As with the advent of superstores, and your out-of-town shopping malls, which closed many small stores, we have a similar situation now in the UK, with High Street stores closing with the growth of on-line shopping and home-delivery services.

I guess it is just the way it has always been, the railways pretty much killed off the canal traffic, but the rush to cut back on employees through "efficiencies" or artificial intelligence, makes me wonder just who will remain with salaries to buy all this wonderful produce being delivered by self driving trucks, etc?

 

[MARC Rider]

When the 20 something crowd is making 100k a year. I am starting to think my profession life was completely wrong.

My first professional job out of graduate school, age 26. Salary $17,000/ year (GS-9 step 1). That's $73,600 in today's money. Most people just out of college made less, but they pretty quickly got to my level. By the way, GS-9 step 1 now only makes about $50,000 a year in today's money. I suspect that although we read a lot about 20-somethings earning $100,000+ per year, those people represent a very, very small fraction of the 20-somethings out there.

No office workers, no support services needed. So now nobody travels on the train/subway.

Gee, I wish somebody had told those pesky New Yorkers that during my trip last May. Standing room only on the 1 Train. OK, so maybe New York is a special case.

Here in the US, there talk of a crash, both in housing and office space. Apartments building that refused to drop their rent, sitting half empty. Commercial property vacant and left to rot. This might not end well.

The way it was explained to me is that if there's reduced demand, then the landlords should be lowering their rent. This doesn't seem to be happening. Obviously, our system is set up so that landlords can make money with their buildings half empty. One solution would be a tax on vacant rental property.

 

[tgstubbs1]

What will be even more of an impact, is the Artificial Intelligence progression, that may eliminate lots of jobs...

I saw this on the web ....

OpenAI has some programs that are the exact inverse. For example, Dan showed me one that predates ChatGPT called code-davinci-002, and while its name does suck, its writing ability does not.

Taste is subjective, so you be the judge. Try to identify which of the following parody headlines were written by the Onion and which ones were generated by code-davinci-002:


"Experts Warn that War in Ukraine Could Become Even More Boring."


“Budget of New Batman Movie Swells to $200M as Director Insists on Using Real Batman”

“Story of Woman Who Rescues Shelter Dog With Severely Matted Fur Will Inspire You to Open a New Tab and Visit Another Website”

“Phil Spector's Lawyer: ‘My Client Is A Psychopath Who Probably Killed Lana Clarkson’”

“Rural Town Up in Arms Over Depiction in Summer Blockbuster 'Cowf**kers'”

The answer: they were all written by code-davinci-002.

I can’t speak for every writer in the WGA, particularly not the really good ones. But I’m not sure I personally could beat these jokes’ quality, and certainly not instantaneously, for free. Based on the secret stuff Dan’s shown me, I think it’s only a matter of time before AI will be able to beat any writer in a blind creative taste test. I’d peg it at about five years."

 

[Septa9739]

I think “commuter rail” is a failing model, pre, during, and post COVID. Trying only to cater to 9-5 workers leads to bad equipment and labor utilization and greatly reduces viability for many passengers. SEPTA has since the 80’s, at least nominally, considered its railroad to be “regional rail” for connecting the area as a whole for many purposes. For that reason off peak ridership was able to carry ridership overall a bit better than many other systems. That said Philly is pretty much only open for business Tuesday to Thursday and you see that plainly when you ride. Obviously SEPTA is cheering Comcast mandating Monday in the office because much of Center City follows Comcast’s lead. I think I saw data that Monday and Friday are at about 40% recovery and Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday were over 70%. No matter how you shake it people coming downtown is critical for an intra-Regional system, and make no mistake, eventually most will be coming back.

 

[cirdan]

Do tell me more about the plentiful possibilities of making money!

A lot of people complained that they had it tough during the COVID lockdowns, but I also know of many people who had it real good. One of these even managed to escape to an island in Thailand where living costs are virtually nothing, while working "from home" at a salary designed to enable life in a big city. He was able to save virtually his entire income for about two years which puts him in a good place for early retirement.

Many companies like to have their headquarters in the high-cost hubs of big cities not really because that makes business sense, but because of prestige. Long before COVID there was already a creeping tendency in big corporations to shift back-office jobs to more peripheral locations which means people were more likely to drive and less likely to use transit. On the other hand, there is a new urbanism and people want to live in cities again and people want to work in cities and many companies are finding themselves relocating to more attractive locations to be interesting for employees.

So some stars may be falling but other are rising to take their place.

The way it was explained to me is that if there's reduced demand, then the landlords should be lowering their rent. This doesn't seem to be happening. Obviously, our system is set up so that landlords can make money with their buildings half empty. One solution would be a tax on vacant rental property.

The real estate market has more inertia than other sectors, partially due to contracts often being long term. But if the crash lasts long enough prices will drop. Depressions and crashes are and always have been good times to buy real estate because the market often tends to overswing, meaning there is a sweet spot during which real-estate prices are still falling while the economy as a whole is already on the rise.

I can’t speak for every writer in the WGA, particularly not the really good ones. But I’m not sure I personally could beat these jokes’ quality, and certainly not instantaneously, for free. Based on the secret stuff Dan’s shown me, I think it’s only a matter of time before AI will be able to beat any writer in a blind creative taste test. I’d peg it at about five years."

drifting way off topic here.... but I think it is good to see the bar being raised as there is a lot of mediocre writing going on, especially on the corporate part of the Internet, and the agencies who create this and bill big money for it, need to wake up and either try harder or see a machine replace them.

ChatGPT can often be an involuntary parody of the sort of bad writing that often gets on our nerves. I believe the market for good writing will remain in human hands for a while yet.

To twist this post back onto topic, I wonder to what extent AI can replicate or even improve on the bogus excuses for under-performance that excuse the underperformance of transit system on a daily basis.

 

[Literalman]

I ride the Septa Wawa line typically once a week, and there are a lot of riders going to work at the hospitals. A lot get off at Suburban Station too. One morning, only I and another passenger were left in the car after Suburban Station. Sometimes trains go out of service before their official destination, so I asked the conductor so I could be sure the train was going to Jefferson Station. Yes, I was told, the people going to work got off at Suburban Station. The namesake hospital of Jefferson Station employs a lot of people, so maybe my train's schedule didn't coincide with a shift change.

 

[Matthew H Fish]

One of the things that has to be clarified before answering this question is what is "commuter rail", and it is not purely a pedantic discussion. Because both in terms of equipmenment and purpose (form and function), "commuter rail" is a vague term. For example, the Amtrak Capitol Corridor would not generally fit the definition of commuter rail---but I am guessing that at least some people use it for a daily commute between Sacramento and the East Bay.
My guess is that remote work might shift ridership away from traditional "commuter rail" towards "corridor service". Someone in cities like Olympia, Washington or Fairfield, California, might use a service like the Amtrak Cascades or Capitol Corridor to have weekly meetings, while most of the time they work from home. I don't think rail service is declining as much as it is changing.

 

[John Bredin]

The way it was explained to me is that if there's reduced demand, then the landlords should be lowering their rent. This doesn't seem to be happening. Obviously, our system is set up so that landlords can make money with their buildings half empty. One solution would be a tax on vacant rental property.

It's happening in Chicago.

 

[Matthew H Fish]

The way it was explained to me is that if there's reduced demand, then the landlords should be lowering their rent. This doesn't seem to be happening. Obviously, our system is set up so that landlords can make money with their buildings half empty. One solution would be a tax on vacant rental property.

Theoretically, all markets should clear. Theoretically, if a landlord has supply that is going unused, they should decrease the price on it to make *some* money, rather than make none at all. If you have a commercial property, renting it for even $100 a month makes more sense than not renting it and getting $0.
In principle, though, there are a few reasons why this isn't true with real estate:
1. Renting still creates additional costs, such as administrative costs and insurance, so a landlord has to at least cover those costs, and in the modern world, those can be pretty large, especially on commercial real estate.
2. In many places, commercial real estate ownership and management is concentrated enough that landlords are aware that dropping rents in surplus areas will also put downward pressure on rents in general.
3. Sheer stubbornness and denial. If a landlord has rented commercial property for $5000 before, that seems like the "natural" price, and even a drop to $4000 seems like it is unnatural and a loss.

I hope this little post about economic theory isn't too off-topic...and also, I am aware that I am far from an expert on the matter.

 

[cirdan]

3. Sheer stubbornness and denial. If a landlord has rented commercial property for $5000 before, that seems like the "natural" price, and even a drop to $4000 seems like it is unnatural and a loss.

I think, especially in real estate, there is a difference between rents as advertised, and rents that are actually payed.

Especially larger customers such as chain stores can use their clout to negotiate down rents across the board. The more empty or underutilized real estate there is, the more they can apply that clout.

Landlords may actually be making less money than a summary perusal of the online ads might suggest.

 

[cirdan]

Certainly it would be great if the transit fleets can be used for a wider customer base than mostly commuters, but I wonder if that would generate enough revenue to keep the systems in business?

Most transit systems do not come anywhere remotely near to breaking even at the farebox level. They are supported financially by governments and local authorities because the secondary benefits such as reduction of congestion, pollution etc as well as comfort and creating an attractive location are considered worthwhile goals. There is a limit to the fares that people are prepared to pay before they walk away, and furthermore the system is inherently inefficient as infrastructure is used to capacity only for a few hours a day and has massive excess capacity the rest of the time. Transit systems can thus only be made to work if the external benefits are somehow factored in. Many of these external factors are rather wishy washy and difficult to measure in any precise way.

When we criticize this, we often forget or ignore that the same is largely true of roads.

 

[jis]

When we criticize this, we often forget or ignore that the same is largely true of roads.

Indeed. This is true of almost all transportation infrastructure, even including airports and seaports too. The determination of value has to be carried out in terms of aggregates rather than just occupancy I think.

On another matter, Miami Tri-Rail apparently has now reclaimed its entire pre-COVID ridership.

 

[Willbridge]

Indeed. This is true of almost all transportation infrastructure, even including airports and seaports too. The determination of value has to be carried out in terms of aggregates rather than just occupancy I think.

On another matter, Miami Tri-Rail apparently has now reclaimed its entire pre-COVID ridership.

When I was a kid, my father explained to me how Portland Traction could lose money when they were carrying standees in the peak hour. (He also explained how the holding company could pay dividends, but that's a different story.) I then spent over 40 years in service planning explaining it to otherwise quite bright people. Whenever or wherever a budget crunch occurred, someone would suggest cutting night or weekend or midday service. And if they did it without considering what effects it would have, the predicted savings would not occur.

The opposite happened when Colorado's RTD had to develop a whole new service when Stapleton was replaced by Denver International Airport. There were people who were certain that the service would be an economic disaster. Instead, the day and night demand over the whole week resulted in lower subsidies per ride than on peak only regional commuter routes.

In 2014 (the last full year before rail service to the airport) Regional highway coach routes -- heavily weighted toward peak operation -- averaged a subsidy of $4.75 per boarding, while the skyRide routes -- also with highway coaches -- averaged $3.35.