Tangential response, but I make it every time I see this sort of discussion.
The title of your thread is "Justification for LD trains".
However, he was telling me that there really is no justification for routes like the Zephyr
There are a bunch of "LD trains" which are nothing like the Zephyr. Examples: the Silver Star, the Silver Meteor, the Palmetto, the Crescent, the Lake Shore Limited, the Capitol Limited, the City of New Orleans, even the Cardinal.
I can easily justify all of these services. As a group, they cost about $27 million a year in direct, avoidable-costs subsidy (before loading up the accounting with unavoidable overhead). They routinely have over 80% loads on long trains at high prices year-round. They connect massive cities at fairly short distances from each other, usually at speeds comparable to driving. The sleeper service is competitive with driving in nearly every market, and actually competitive with flying in a few of the city-pair markets. The sleepers sell out months in advance. These routes all provide an additional frequency on a popular corridor with multiple trains at at least one end, and extend the reach of that service further. They provide substantial connectivity, linking (for instance) Cleveland OH to the entire NEC and Chicago passenger rail systems.
I'll be upfront about the following biases I have:
1. I'm a western boy, and I mostly follow what's going on with trains west of the Mississippi
Yeah, so your question is not about the justification for LD trains, but about the justification for western transcontinental trains.
However, there's been an epidemic of sloppy thinking regarding so-called "long distance" trains. The thinking goes as follows: look, the western trains are expensive to run and require large subsidies (true). The thinking goes (and here's the error), "long distance" trains have large subsidies (nope). Therefore (here's the nasty result) the Broadway Limited gets cut, the Cardinal gets reduced from daily to three-a-week, etc... this happened.
There will be attacks on "long distance" trains based on the expense and relatively low ridership per mile of the western transcontinental trains. One can argue those points, but I'm not interested in doing so. As far as I'm concerned, I want to make sure that these attacks do not cause any further collateral damage to the *eastern* long-distance trains, which are a different kettle of fish; much more successful and with much greater potential for expansion.
So I'd ask you & the moderators to please change the title of this thread. And be careful how you talk about train service.
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The inability or lack of desire to travel by air in and of itself does not constitute a justification for LD trains either.
It actually does, to some extent -- more accurately, it is (in and of itself) a justification for *ground transportation*.
I found it hard to find hard numbers, but it seems like the percentage of the population who refuse to fly due solely to "fear of flying" is around 6.5%, which is actually a substantial chunk. This is not accounting for people who have physical reasons to not fly, which is likely to be a much larger percentage (the incidence of arthritis alone is quite high). Then you add in the people who won't fly for environmental reasons. And the people who don't want to deal with the TSA abuses. And so on.
When you add all the causes up, it seems that non-flyers are a LARGE percentage of the population, probably 20-25% (which matches with some survey numbers). That's enough that the government absolutely should cater to their (our) needs.
Obviously cars and buses are also alternatives to flying, and they're extremely popular ones. It is driving which trains generally compete directly with, not flying. And yes, lots of people do drive long distances -- from LA to Denver, from New Orleans to New York, from New York to Chicago, even from New York to LA.
Where cars and buses are not suitable, then trains become clearly the best option. For any route which touches a city with high traffic congestion (LA, NY, Chicago, Miami, Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Atlanta, Tampa...), they are not really suitable (due to congestion-induced delays), though many will drive anyway. Cars, taxis, and buses are also not really suitable on any route with fairly high volumes, which requires enormous numbers of buses or absurd numbers of cars, but can be accomodated easily on trains. These are usually the same routes as the ones running into traffic congestion -- for obvious reasons.
A route that touches many population centers that already exists would be ideal for running an LD train on.
Yes! Every existing route east of the Mississippi, the Floridian, the Broadway Limited, and several dozen other routes...
There's lots of routes here east of the Mississippi which are worth running so-called "long-distance" trains on, and most are good enough they actually are worth building new tracks for.
Distance is pretty much an irrelevance, which is why the "long-distance" distinction is arbitrary and capricious. What matters includes:
1 - Population concentrations along the route
2 - network connectivity
3 - being faster than driving
Whether a route is faster than driving is easy to check (though there's some wiggle room depending on different driving styles); but if the route is slower than driving, this is often a justification for *improving* the route so that it's faster than driving.
It's also pretty easy to see whether a route has good population concentrations along the route. Unfortunately it's not nearly so easy to improve a route to go to different, larger cities (though Amtrak is wasting a golden opportunity to do so with the Southwest Chief). You can see for yourself which routes have more potential, and which have less potential, just from looking at the metro area populations along the routes.
It's easy to evaluate network connectivity, too. Some cities have urban rail, others don't; some have commuter rail, others don't; some have "corridor routes" spreading out from them, others don't. Any route connecting to Chicago connects to a huge network, and the same is true of SF, LA, Boston, NYC, Phildelphia, and DC. Even San Diego connects you to a small network. By contrast, connecting to Jackson MS gets you very, very little in the way of connectivity. It is documented that better local public transportation means more riders on intercity rail, and this isn't surprising at all.