It will be very interesting to see if Brightline can be profitable ....
[klaxon sounding] Alert! Alert! "Profitability" fallacy off the starboard bow!
Go to wikipedia and read about "Hollywood accounting" or "creative accounting." Also, find a copy of the Mel Brooks film "The Producers" and enjoy watching it.
Return of the Jedi cost 32.5 million to make and earned a total of $475 million at the box office, plus VHS/DVD/streaming revenue and licensing tie-ins. Yet Lucasfilm claimed that the movie never made a profit. This lack of profitability didn't seem to stop Lucasfilm (and now Disney) from making more
Star Wars films.
To really evaluate Brightline, you have to follow the money. Who really owns Brightline? The real owners or controllers may have other, larger financial goals than the profitability of the railroad operations. From what I've read, it seems that the owners are basically developing Brightline as an amenity to enhance the value of their real estate holdings along the tracks. They may not care if it isn't "profitable" if they can make more money from developing properties with an enhanced value due to the presence of train service. Conversely, once they make their fortune on the real estate development, they may find continuous operation of Brightline to be a financial drag, so I won't be shocked if one day Amtrak, or the State of Florida, or some regional authority ends up running the service.
Actually, compared to 50-60 years ago, this is a great improvement. In one of the E.EM. Frimbo columns I'm reading, it was pointed out that the management of the Penn Central saw themselves as primarily a real estate company, not a railroad. Why? Because they thought that railroading was on the way to disappearing, yet they owned lots of valuable property in most of the large and small cities of the northeast and midwest. But what was preventing them from developing this property to the fullest extent? Those damn obsolete railroad tracks! Get rid of the tracks, and redevelop the properties. They never quite did that 100%, but the current Penn Station is a result of that kind of thinking, and they also tried to tear down Grand Central as well, and put up an office building. At leas nowadays, even conventional real estate people now see the presence of passenger rail as an amenity that enhances the value of property.
You really can't trust private capital to provide stable, sustainable funding for any kind of enterprise. In the case of rail (like all transportation modes), stable public funding is essential.