Longer Lynchburger

[City of Miami]

The Lynchburger has been running with nine coaches the last few days, i.e. 8 coaches plus café car. At first I thought I was mistaken, but no. It just pulled into CVS - NINE coaches. This, of course, is one more coach than usual.

 

[Nathanael]

Well, that's how you make profits on a railroad -- long, full trains!

There has been talk of extending it to Roanoke, but I'm beginning to wonder if, before that, we'll see a second frequency.

 

[Tracktwentynine]

Well, that's how you make profits on a railroad -- long, full trains!
There has been talk of extending it to Roanoke, but I'm beginning to wonder if, before that, we'll see a second frequency.

Governor McDonnell has proposed to fund the extension to Roanoke out of Virginia's recently passed transportation revenue bill. I haven't heard anything about a second roundtrip recently, so I think Roanoke will come first.

 

[afigg]

Governor McDonnell has proposed to fund the extension to Roanoke out of Virginia's recently passed transportation revenue bill. I haven't heard anything about a second roundtrip recently, so I think Roanoke will come first.

A February viewgraph presentation on the draft of the VA state rail plan had a Roanoke extension taking place before a second Regional to Lynchburg (or Roanoke). When the FY2014 proposed 6 year spending plan comes out, reflecting the additional funds for passenger rail, I expect that the Roanoke service extension will be at the top of the list ahead of a 2nd train to Lynchburg. Getting to 3 daily trains to Norfolk is also likely to be a higher priority than a second daily Lynchburger. A daIly Cardinal would add capacity from CVS to the NEC, so that may be an alternative in a year or two.

 

[Notelvis]

I could envision a scenario where, at the very least, Virginia sponsors a New York-Charlottesville RT on the Cardinal schedule the four days each week the Cardinal doesn't run through to Chicago. Operate the Richmond-Charlottesville Thruway Bus daily and extend it on to Lynchburg and Roanoke then you would really see some impressive ridership growth in my opinion.

 

[jis]

Hey, if VA and NC could collaborate they could run a day train from nbew York to Charlotte via Lynchburg too. Perhpas run it combined with the Carolinian southbound on the NEC to maximize confusion too Just a random thought.

I think more likely will be two trains to Roanoke eventually

 

[user 1215]

Adding frequency is often difficult as cited by commuter operators like VRE. Getting slots at times that commuters want is difficult to get from the freights.

Amtrak needs to look at longer, fuller trains.

 

[jis]

Most Amtrak stations on the NEC can handle a 12 car train without breaking a sweat. Things may get a bit dicey up north, but notwithstanding Thanksgiving trains have operated with 12 cars along the entire length of the NEC.

 

[user 1215]

We just need an Acela set built that can be expanded to 12 coaches.

Point being - increase capacity will probably begin with the number of seats available per train rather than an increase in the number of trains - until a true, new, passenger only trunk line can be built.

 

[jis]

We just need an Acela set built that can be expanded to 12 coaches.

Since an Acela is unlikely toe ver make it out to Lynchburg, Idon;t know what the relevance of a 12 car Acela is to this discussion. One can already form a 12 car Reqional if enough cars are allocated to it.

 

[user 1215]

I jumped from the Lynchburger to Amtrak in general. I would imagine, though, if a new trunk line were built, it would be extended to Lynchburg where there is clearly NEC-level demand.

 

[jis]

I jumped from the Lynchburger to Amtrak in general. I would imagine, though, if a new trunk line were built, it would be extended to Lynchburg where there is clearly NEC-level demand.

Actually no. There isn't. There may be some day but far from it at present.

 

[City of Miami]

NER 171 back to eight cars this evening.

 

[The Davy Crockett]

NER 171 back to eight cars this evening.

I don't know the local college and university schedules down Lynchburger way, but could it have been extra capacity for spring break?

 

[Anderson]

Length and frequency are both important. Ideally, you'd have 2-3 Regionals going to/from LYH (probably two NB in the morning and one NB in the evening) and then focus on length, but there are definitely "reverse-commute" markets being lost. Once you get up to a certain number of trains, then I agree that length is a priority, but there's a convenience factor that frequency provides that will tend to drive ridership that can't be overlooked.

 

[Bus Nut]

Adding frequency is often difficult as cited by commuter operators like VRE. Getting slots at times that commuters want is difficult to get from the freights.
Amtrak needs to look at longer, fuller trains.

Everybody chill. The Commonwealth of Virginia has got this.

They have spent years planning and have spent and will spend hundreds of millions of dollars to build new bridges and 2nd and 3rd tracks to increase capacity on the lines needed for passenger rail. They have spent years and years negotiating with CSX to make sure they get this right.

Virginia will have the capacity to operate more trains when they need them.

Note also the planning underway for future capacity at Washington Union Station.

Also, what Anderson said about ridership. Truer words &cet.

 

[jis]

Length and frequency are both important. Ideally, you'd have 2-3 Regionals going to/from LYH (probably two NB in the morning and one NB in the evening) and then focus on length, but there are definitely "reverse-commute" markets being lost. Once you get up to a certain number of trains, then I agree that length is a priority, but there's a convenience factor that frequency provides that will tend to drive ridership that can't be overlooked.

I substantially agree with that analysis.

The only caveat is that I am sure that NS will require some amount of additional sidings and/or double tracking to get those additional trains in. I have not been following what, if anything, VA has planned for enhancing capacity of the NS route between CP AF and Lynchburg.

 

[user 1215]

Length and frequency are both important. Ideally, you'd have 2-3 Regionals going to/from LYH (probably two NB in the morning and one NB in the evening) and then focus on length, but there are definitely "reverse-commute" markets being lost. Once you get up to a certain number of trains, then I agree that length is a priority, but there's a convenience factor that frequency provides that will tend to drive ridership that can't be overlooked.

I substantially agree with that analysis.
The only caveat is that I am sure that NS will require some amount of additional sidings and/or double tracking to get those additional trains in. I have not been following what, if anything, VA has planned for enhancing capacity of the NS route between CP AF and Lynchburg.

And I agree with THAT analysis. My point was simply that it would not take that much extra work to add a coach or two to relieve capacity. Adding a whole new train is a completely different ball game.

 

[Anderson]

The situation on the Lynchburger in that regard is a complicated mess. Basically, the train is edging towards 200,000 riders/year at the moment, but that figure only covers folks who get on and/or off LYH-ALX. The train is sold out enough that it's hard to add folks there, and unless you get some ROA-CVS and what-have-you traffic, it's going to be hard to make too much headway with adding ROA. You'll get some added revenue, I expect (from some longer tickets), but that's likely to result from crowding-out.

Also, I am led to understand that there are two structural reasons for not adding cars to the train. The first is just generic capacity issues (i.e. not enough Amfleets to go around), but the second is that you've apparently got a bunch of semi-fixed car sets running around (in batches of eight) that act as an equipment pool. You get some variation on this for peak days (a car gets added) or low-demand days (one gets removed), but on those same days capacity is being added all over the NERs.

 

[afigg]

I substantially agree with that analysis.
The only caveat is that I am sure that NS will require some amount of additional sidings and/or double tracking to get those additional trains in. I have not been following what, if anything, VA has planned for enhancing capacity of the NS route between CP AF and Lynchburg.

There is one double track segment project in the current 6 year improvement plan: Nokesville to Calverton Double Tracks for a 6-7 mile segment not far south of Manassas and the VRE Broad Run/Airport stop. IIRC, filling in the single track segment would make for around 22 miles of continuous double tracking south of Manassas. The budget is $31.6 million with VA providing $22.1 million, but because of the cost overruns on the Norfolk extension it got postponed to FY15 & FY16.

The February presentation on the draft of the revised VA state rail plan has a cost estimate of $91 million for two roundtrips to Lynchburg. My guess is that the $31 million for the Nokesville to Calverton double track is part of the $91 million. With the additional funding for passenger rail projects that will be available with the new transportation revenue in FY14, I wonder if the Nokesville double track project will be moved up. The VA DRPT FY14 Six year budget plan will be interesting to review for Roanoke/Lynchburg and Norfolk related projects when the draft is released.

Incidentally, according to a diagram in a 2002 Bristol passenger service study I found, there are 9 single track segments on the NS line between Manassas and Lynchburg (3 between Manassas and Orange). Would cost a fair amount to double track the entire NS line from Manassas to Lynchburg.

With regards to the passenger load on the Lynchburger, given the apparent high percentage of college students taking it, it likely is much busier on Fridays/Saturdays AM northbound and Sunday PM southbound. if that is the case, an extension to Roanoke would only double up on that traffic pattern. But we should keep in mind that a sold-out train is a better problem to have for Amtrak than a 3/4 empty train!

 

[SubwayNut]

Today's northbound Lynchburger had 8 total cars. Road it today from NYP to NRO as part of my points runs attached to my NRO to SPG trip tomorrow. We were delayed at NYP for 35 minutes to attach a second engine. We had two AEM7s over the Hell Gate Bridge.

It was packed for my short segment, barely got a window seat boarding at Penn Station as one of the first to board. Wish I knew how many riders were through from south of DC. There were no seat checks when boarding. Had to find the conductor to get my ticket scanned.

 

[Anderson]

Nice to see this out. I'm going to have to ask what the $103m for "Phase I-Lynchburg Service" is for (i.e. if that's an old expenditure that never got revised out or if it's a future expenditure related to the service that started a few years ago). The "Extension to Roanoke" bit is oddly expensive compared to either the Bristol or Richmond connections; I'm guessing there's some mess of a connecting track involved. Ditto the second train to Roanoke...they're paying $237m for two trains running about 60-70 miles there, while paying less than $25m to extend east to Richmond and less than $48m for the (somewhat longer) extension of one to Bristol. It's particularly curious as it costs more to get the trains LYH-ROA than it does to get them WAS-LYH.

(Of course, it'll also be curious to see what timetable comes out of the Bristol-Roanoke-Lynchburg service...going off a timetable from 1956, you'd have to leave Bristol before 3 AM to get to Lynchburg by 7 AM, or accept a DC arrival in the afternoon to get the time late enough to leave Bristol at a sane hour. And I'll bet money that the DRPT isn't going to move the Lynchburger around that much to accommodate that service.)

 

[afigg]

Nice to see this out. I'm going to have to ask what the $103m for "Phase I-Lynchburg Service" is for (i.e. if that's an old expenditure that never got revised out or if it's a future expenditure related to the service that started a few years ago). The "Extension to Roanoke" bit is oddly expensive compared to either the Bristol or Richmond connections; I'm guessing there's some mess of a connecting track involved. Ditto the second train to Roanoke...they're paying $237m for two trains running about 60-70 miles there, while paying less than $25m to extend east to Richmond and less than $48m for the (somewhat longer) extension of one to Bristol. It's particularly curious as it costs more to get the trains LYH-ROA than it does to get them WAS-LYH.
(Of course, it'll also be curious to see what timetable comes out of the Bristol-Roanoke-Lynchburg service...going off a timetable from 1956, you'd have to leave Bristol before 3 AM to get to Lynchburg by 7 AM, or accept a DC arrival in the afternoon to get the time late enough to leave Bristol at a sane hour. And I'll bet money that the DRPT isn't going to move the Lynchburger around that much to accommodate that service.)

It is rather early to figure out a Bristol extension schedule. Bristol extension is Phase 3 in the VDRPT viewgraphs and only Phase 1 is covered by the current 6 year plan. The website says the VA State Rail Plan was due in March, but it is now late. Besides the usual schedule slips, I think it makes sense to hold off on a new state rail plan until they have worked out a new 6 year budget planning outline incorporating the additional ~$50 million a year in capital funding for passenger rail projects. The 2013 VA state rail plan should make for a good topic discussion when it gets released.

There should be a total of around $100 to $120 million a year to spend on improvement projects, not including $27 million shown for the Rail Enhancement Fund for freight rail and $7 million for Short Line program,both of which can also benefit passenger rail (like the Buckingham Branch RR). That is a respectable level of annual funding. My guess is that any extension to Bristol stays in the long range plans while other projects get priority: the extension to Roanoke, 3 daily trains to Norfolk, adding a 2nd train to Lynchburg & Roanoke, upgrades between WAS to Staples Mill, restoring through service for Main Street station south to Petersburg, upgrades for better trip times from RVR/RVM to NPN and NFK. Bristol service extension stays on the to-do list to keep the politicians in SW VA happy, but difficult to justify until there are 2 trains to Roanoke and 3 to Norfolk with improved trip times.

For information on what upgrades were recommended before for service extension to Roanoke and Bristol (and Lynchburg to Richmond?), turns out the 2002 Bristol, Roanoke, and Richmond Passenger Train Study is available on the DRPT website here (38 MB scanned PDF)*. It is a 214 page document with a LOT of information including track diagrams, proposed Amtrak schedules for WAS to Bristol, recommended track upgrades.

The trip times in the 2002 schedule has ~75 minutes Lynchburg to Roanoke and ~4 hours Roanoke to Bristol. We are talking roughly 13+ hours Bristol to NYP. If they extend a train to Bristol, it would likely be the second train to Roanoke, not the current Lynchburger. the northbound train could depart Bristol at 7 AM, get to LYH mid-day, NYP around 8 PM.

* Google rocks.

 

[Anderson]

I'm following a lot of what you're saying, but I don't know where you're getting $100-120m/yr for projects from the state. If there's a federal match, I can see that, but the bill that passed the General Assembly split that money into two pots: One for passenger rail and another for mass transit in general that is probably going to get tied up with streetcars and light rail projects.

 

[George Harris]

Upper to about 1960 the Southern main line was double track to at least as far as Salisbury with a couple or a few single track bridges in the length. By the late 1960's the full double track had been cut back to Orange with the remainder turned into about 50% single, 50% double in 5 mile chunks. After the "Family Lines" mergers, the half-half arrangement was cut further back, to somewhere near Manassas, but that particular where I do not know. Likewise, the N&W was double track between Lynchburg and Roanoke. I am reasonably sure that is no longer true, but have no idea what the current condition is. Am saying that to say that the second track additions being discussed are restorations, not something completely new.

The speeds possible on these lines is not too slow, buy not really that fast, either. The 79 mph speed limit is not really possible for that much of the length due to curves, but I believe that speeds in the 50 to 70 mph range are.