Return to daily service, Feb 15 decision time

[jis]

You are in the right ballpark. As I have mentoned in an earlier post, the vaccination rate needs to go up to a rolling average of 2 million per day for us to reach close to certainty regarding herd immunity by the second half of the years all else remaining the same. Of course a mutant that manages to bypass the recognizable spike proteins that the immunities are based on emerging, or an unexpectedly virulent or infectious mutant could kibosh the projections.

 

[Bob Dylan]

You are in the right ballpark. As I have mentoned in an earlier post, the vaccination rate needs to go up to a rolling average of 2 million per day for us to reach close to certainty regarding herd immunity by the second half of the years all else remaining the same. Of course a mutant that manages to bypass the recognizable spike proteins that the immunities are based on emerging, or an unexpectedly virulent or infectious mutant could kibosh the projections.

As well as Anti-Vaxxers pushing Lies,and so called " Leaders" advising people to not Wear Masks, Social Distance and follow Health Guidelines.

 

[jis]

As well as Anti-Vaxxers pushing Lies,and so called " Leaders" advising people to not Wear Masks, Social Distance and follow Health Guidelines.

I think that there is a real danger and possibility of hitting social roadblocks before herd immunity level immunization through infections and vaccinations can be achieved in the US.

 

[Chris I]

I think that there is a real danger and possibility of hitting social roadblocks before herd immunity level immunization through infections and vaccinations can be achieved in the US.

This is a good read:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html
I think it is fairly promising, assuming people continue to get the vaccine. The interesting part to me is that some regions have almost reached herd immunity levels by just letting the virus run rampant. They are estimating that North Dakota has reached 60% infected/recovered, which is just insane. Other regions (basically the coasts) are going to need to see 60%+ vaccinated, because their infected/recovered rates are so low.

 

[Ziv]

ND and SD are at 12% reported cases but the ND 6 day rolling average of new cases has fallen from 31 to 19 per 100,000, SD has fallen to 28 per day. No way to tell how many have actually had it and not been diagnosed.
Their rolling avg of deaths per day has dropped to .66/100,000 and 0.8/100,000, if my math is right.
AZ, RI, NY and NJ are also still having a very tough time with rolling average death rates per day of .99/100k, .89/100k, .68/100k, and .60/100k respectively.
Their reported case rate varies from 6.7% for CN to 9.9% for AZ w NJ and NY 7.5% and 6.8%, respectively.
I am nearly innumerate but stats fascinate me. I am tempted to remove this post because I did all the calculations on my phone and the chances of me blundering so great...

This is a good read:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html
I think it is fairly promising, assuming people continue to get the vaccine. The interesting part to me is that some regions have almost reached herd immunity levels by just letting the virus run rampant. They are estimating that North Dakota has reached 60% infected/recovered, which is just insane. Other regions (basically the coasts) are going to need to see 60%+ vaccinated, because their infected/recovered rates are so low.

 

[Barb Stout]

The method to get rid of a post is to edit the post you want removed. Remove all the text in it and replace it with one word "Redacted". The Moderators will take care of the rest.

Thanks. I was wondering how that got done.

 

[railiner]

Thanks. I was wondering how that got done.

That will only work in your own original posts...if someone has quoted you before you remove it, it will stay in their post(s)...unless, of course, the Mods go thru all and remove them...

 

[jis]

That will only work in your own original posts...if someone has quoted you before you remove it, it will stay in their post(s)...unless, of course, the Mods go thru all and remove them...

Mods will generally not chase down quotes from a redacted post.

However, in the process of cleaning up nonsense if they remove a post, they generally go through and remove every post that has quoted a removed post.

 

[John Bobinyec]

By the numbers ...

Has Amtrak published any financial details as to whether or not the 3-day schedule has worked out better than having kept the trains on a 7-day schedule would have?

jb

 

[user 14106]

By the numbers ...

Has Amtrak published any financial details as to whether or not the 3-day schedule has worked out better than having kept the trains on a 7-day schedule would have?

jb

I doubt they’d ever publish anything like that. The best you can do is look over their monthly performance reports and make a judgement based on that data. Keep in mind also that for some of the trains this is the “off season” anyway - and Covid is certainly depressing ridership further. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least on some trains it has saved money - but it only saves money so long as demand remains below a certain threshold (and Flynn has admitted this - it only makes sense to do this while the money you gain from the lower costs is greater than any lost revenue.) I think they’ll follow thru and go back to daily on at least some routes - they did say it would be a route by route decision so it’s possible if they don’t do all of them this could reveal which routes are favored (or those disliked) by management. The other issue is if they need additional relief funding. The biggest concern I have going forward (if this experiment worked) is Amtrak considering doing this annually during the slowest months and running daily seasonally.

 

[west point]

Unfortunately Georgia is all screwed up on vaccinations except the 3 major urban areas. Appears I can get my 1st *** late FEB or early March being on the waiting list. That makes 2nd shot Early April. By May should be as immune as I can get. So the hell with it I going out although will still need mask and only around others with mask. That is due to the unknown B117 and how contagious it is as other variants. Also if persons inoculated will be immune and not carriers of variants. Then permanent immunity or needing a boost every year ? 1M inoculations a day will change metrics quickly.

The world has a lot of unknowns as the data probably will not be definitive until late 2021.

What that means for Amtrak is just speculation. Since many older persons will be considered immune by April they might want to travel and the demand on Amtrak may increase quickly within a month. This person certainly has cabin fever. The grand children are waiting as well.

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

I am usually too optimistic about tough issues, but the 7 day rolling average of newly diagnosed cases of Covid 19 has been dropping for a little over 2 weeks. It is now down from 265k to 174k, which is 65.6% of its peak level. Worldometer stats.
Also, the 7 day average of vaccinations is up to 1.16Mn per day and rising. This is going to be tested when the pig in the python hits, i.e. the people that got their vaccination in the last two weeks return for their second shot. Then we will find out if the bottleneck was supply of the drugs or the number of personnel needed to administer the jabs. But the amount of shots given per day has been steadily rising, and hopefully the trend in jabs administered per day will continue to rise. So 22.4MN Americans have gotten the ***, which is 6.65% of the US.
Finally, 7.7% of the US population has tested positive for the bug or its antibodies. Since a very large number of people get the bug and are either asymptomatic or get a very mild case, there is a huge number of people with the antibodies (who are generally immune from re-infection) that haven't been tested. So that 7.7% is really 15% or maybe 20% having already had the bug and functionally immune.
6.65% + 15% is 21.65% and 6.65% + 20% is 26.65% so we are looking at 21% to 27% of the population immune to the bug. Plus we are vaccinating 0.3% of the pop every day, or nearly 10% per month. Some form of herd immunity will probably kick in at around 60%, to what extent no-one knows but the simple reduction in people able to get the disease in the coming months means that the disease will probably start to burn out by late Spring, though it won't go away entirely.
My gut is that by mid-April we are going to be feeling a lot better about this. It won't be gone, but it will be something we can deal with. Old folks and those with co-morbidities will have gotten the shot by then and the only people who won't have gotten it will be the anti-vaxxers and the young, and the latter will be able to get it soon. But the weeks to come are going to see a LOT of deaths, here in the US we are barely down 7% from the peak 7 day rolling average of 3418 deaths per day, with todays 7 day rolling average at 3170 deaths per day.
Had to finish with the bad news.

Plain and simple the reason the numbers have begun to drop (in my State they are in a free fall) is because HERD IMMUNITY is finally starting to catch hold.

 

[Bob Dylan]

Plain and simple the reason the numbers have begun to drop (in my State they are in a free fall) is because HERD IMMUNITY is finally starting to catch hold.

According to Dr Faucci and the Director of the CDC on Anderson Cooper's Show tonight on CNN, by March we will have approximately 100 Million Americans Combined that have been Vaccinated, or have Some Immunity due to having had COVID and recovered.

With the New Strains showing up ( UK, Brazil,South Africa and more to come) much Research and Time is still needed to Obtain what is PARTIAL Herd Immunity in a Country of 350 Million people.

Wearing Masks. Following Health Guidelines and Social Distancing will still be necessary into the Summer!( and this is the Best Case Scenario)

 

[Qapla]

Thee was a report on the TV last night that said it appears that COVID may leave "brain damage" behind in those who have recovered. There seems to be many who are now experiencing memory problems and other signs.

Sounds like vaccines is the far better way to achieve herd immunity and get Amtrak service restored sooner.

 

[20th Century Rider]

President Biden got testy when asked about the 100,000,000 Vaccinated in 100 Days.

Most Scientists and Doctors are saying this isnt nearly enough!

Meanwhile the Senate dithers and plays Politics as millions Get Sick, Go Hungry and the Death Count gets higher!

No problem for them... they all got their shots... they all got their fancy fancy medical coverage, and they all look forward to a very fancy pension... for taking such good care of you and me and the American People. That's good ???

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/23/9492...t-members-fight-over-who-should-have-priority

 

[Old MM]

Could they not use this period of downtime to address maintenance issues, or am I recently noticing something that has always been there? So weird to see mechanical issues and delays, the effects of which are magnified with thrice weekly LD services and once daily MI-Chicago services. With reduced scheduling I would hope they maximize the opportunity to catch up on preventive maintenance and such, both to preserve the integrity of existing routes, and to get the equipment ready for when services scale up again.

 

[20th Century Rider]

Could they not use this period of downtime to address maintenance issues, or am I recently noticing something that has always been there? So weird to see mechanical issues and delays, the effects of which are magnified with thrice weekly LD services and once daily MI-Chicago services. With reduced scheduling I would hope they maximize the opportunity to catch up on preventive maintenance and such, both to preserve the integrity of existing routes, and to get the equipment ready for when services scale up again.

Less governmental emphasis on Amtrak and less folks working. Less priority because no one is traveling. It's all less. When folks feel safe and the pandemic is under control, the conversation will be up and running... with funding.

 

[Qapla]

"During the down time the" was not the time to address any issues ... they didn't have the money, don't you know - why do today what you can out off till tomorrow

 

[me_little_me]

Thee was a report on the TV last night that said it appears that COVID may leave "brain damage" behind in those who have recovered. There seems to be many who are now experiencing memory problems and other signs.

That should have been obvious. Look at all those rioters - they are the no-mask believers. And our congresspersons. And anyone who disagrees with me on this site. And, in fact, anyone but me.

 

[20th Century Rider]

RE: "Return to daily service, Feb 15 decision time." I'm thinking it's no so much about when full service will resume... but will it or won't it? So if there is a delay due to the COVID ordeal... is the intent that it eventually will?

More clarity is needed on the part of the government [funding] and Amtrak management. From the optimistic overture by Flynn and the Amtrak friendly President, we can only hope that it will return...

There is also talk about extending / increasing LD routes as is the discussion for service to Southern Montana, and bringing Florida service back for the SL.

For us enthusiasts patience is hard to come by. On the other hand, many AU'ers don't even want to risk travel now especially in this time of more lethal COVID variants.

Patience... patience... eventually we'll see how things unfold.

 

[jis]

So the hell with it I going out although will still need mask and only around others with mask. That is due to the unknown B117 and how contagious it is as other variants. Also if persons inoculated will be immune and not carriers of variants. Then permanent immunity or needing a boost every year ? 1M inoculations a day will change metrics quickly.

If you must worry about new mutations, I would worry more about P.1 from Brazil than the British B117 or the South Africa one.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...re-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil

 

[west point]

The Variants are going wild. If one becomes very fatal we might not need to worry about Amtrak ever operating again.

 

[Steve4031]

I believe it’s pretty simple. Just like the movie, Field of Dreams. If you build it they will come. If Amtrak resumes daily service more people will ride. It will help the economy to rehire furloughed employees even if they are staffing mostly empty trains at first.

Most riders don’t even know about the cutbacks in service until they book. When these people come on to book they’ll see availability and book.

 

[bms]

Obviously the pandemic is still going on, but the best thing for public health is to run the trains every day so that they're more empty and so that people can reach their medical appointments.

 

[20th Century Rider]

We must be patient, we must be cautious and careful, and we must be optimistically hopeful... if Winston Churchill could lead his nation through overwhelming odds... so can we!

BTW to me this is the most inspirational music ever written !!!