Senate Deal

[Andrew]

How does the recently passed budget impact Amtrak's funding?

 

[DDrailfan]

The congressional budget for FY14 (H.J. Res. 59) does not actually appropriate any funds. It simply provides the framework for the appropriations committees to work within. Namely, the budget lays out the total amount of discretionary spending (known as the 302a allocation) and then breaks down that overall number between the 12 appropriations sub-committees. It essentially gives them a slice of the overall discretionary budget (known as the 302b allocations). It is up to the individual appropriations sub-committees to then craft legislation for appropriations of funds within their jurisdiction. In the case of the NPRC/Amtrak, this would fall under the House and Senate Appropriation Subcommittees on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies and their chairmen, Rep. Latham (IA) and Sen. Murray (WA), respectively. It is up to this subcommittee to determine the amount of NRPC funding out of their total 302b allocation. We'll have to wait and see what happens in January with appropriations to see any specific impacts on the NRPC. As for right now, the government is still being funding through the continuing resolution which expires in January (the 15th I think). So, technically there is still a possibility for a government shutdown, however with the budget framework in place I think that is highly unlikely.

 

[afigg]

DDrailfan gave a far more detailed answer with the correct terminology than I would have. The Continuing Resolution expires on January 15, so either they pass the appropriation bills by then or another CR. My money would be on a short term CR since Congress does not go back into session until the week after Jan. 1, then all the appropriation bills are passed by end of January or early February (after a food fight or two)..

The budget agreement covers FY14 and FY15. For FY14, the total discretionary spending is to be $520 billion on defense and $492 billion on non-defense, in short everything else. The non-defense spending is to remain at $492 billion in FY15, so there is to be no total increase or inflation adjustment for FY15. What Amtrak and the TIGER grant program get for FY14 may be what they get for FY15 as well.

I think the odds are that Amtrak will get more than they got in the sequestered FY13 budget total of $1.365 billion, but not a lot more. Even if Amtrak only gets little more, say $50 million more in total, because of the additional state subsidy payments of some $80 to $100 million, that could mean ~$150 million more for capital grants and maintenance projects. Note that Amtrak received $1.555 billion in FY10 and the total dropped from FY11 through FY13.

However the 2008 PRIAA act has expired with its direct transfer of funds from the Treasury to close out leases and a new re-authorization has not passed. Unless there is funding in the appropriations, Amtrak will probably have to skip on exercising the FY2014 early buy-out options on equipment leases to reduce debt service payments and the Warrington era debt load. We will see what happens in January, although the committee staffs will be kept busy through the holidays.

 

[Andrew]

How does this effect the Gateway Program and Amtrak's purchase of additional Acela Trains?

 

[afigg]

How does this effect the Gateway Program and Amtrak's purchase of additional Acela Trains?

We will find out. The NEC Gateway project does not need the big bucks in the next few years, just enough for Amtrak to continue with the NEPA and PE process. For the Acela IIs, Amtrak may have to take out a loan to pay for almost the entire cost of the order. But a bid selection and contract award is not likely until early FY2015 at the earliest I expect. I know you are obsessed with the NEC Gateway project, but the immediate large project funding challenge facing Amtrak at present is getting enough funds lined up to pay for the (north) Portal Bridge replacement.

 

[Andrew]

How does this effect the Gateway Program and Amtrak's purchase of additional Acela Trains?

We will find out. The NEC Gateway project does not need the big bucks in the next few years, just enough for Amtrak to continue with the NEPA and PE process. For the Acela IIs, Amtrak may have to take out a loan to pay for almost the entire cost of the order. But a bid selection and contract award is not likely until early FY2015 at the earliest I expect. I know you are obsessed with the NEC Gateway project, but the immediate large project funding challenge facing Amtrak at present is getting enough funds lined up to pay for the (north) Portal Bridge replacement.

I thought that the NEC Gateway Project should get the "big bucks" in a few years...

 

[afigg]

I thought that the NEC Gateway Project should get the "big bucks" in a few years...

Ok, I should written that as the next 2 years which is what this budget agreement covers. Beyond that will have to wait for the 2014 mid-term elections and what effect it has on the makeup of Congress with regards to federal funding.

 

[Andrew]

I thought that the NEC Gateway Project should get the "big bucks" in a few years...

Ok, I should written that as the next 2 years which is what this budget agreement covers. Beyond that will have to wait for the 2014 mid-term elections and what effect it has on the makeup of Congress with regards to federal funding.

1. I have inferred that this Budget Deal would not include real Gateway Construction--but perhaps Gateway Engineering?

2. New York Senator Schumer said that when the tunnel box is completed, in the next two years, that he will "scour the Federal Government for all available dollars, including bonds and loan programs, to help pay for the Gateway Project." This means that, at least what Schumer claims, is that he will lobby very hard in 2015 for Gateway Funding. But there are two main questions: (1) Will Schumer keep his promise? (2). Will the fed's deliver?!

 

[jis]

1. Budget deal is not that specific. That will get thrashed out in Committee, and don't expect too much money for Gateway if any at all.

2. Schumer might keep his promise about making enough noise about it. As for what will get delivered we will see. It will critically depend on the outcome of a few intervening elections before then.

Anyway, the general tendency at present will be to get just enough allocated to Gateway to keep it going and provide more construction funding to Portal. Portal replacement is way more critical than quick completion of Gateway at present. As has been mentioned before Gateway target dates as stated by the owners of the project is around 2025 and everyone is basically working to that schedule. So it is safe to assume that there will be no big bucks for Gateway in 2015 or 2016. Around 2017 is when Gateway might start seeing an uptick in funding. 2015/2016 might see another $100 million or so for the extension of the box if the Gateway Consortium wants to start building the building along the south west periphery of the Gateway parcel, again to preserve the RoW to NYP.

 

[Andrew]

1. Budget deal is not that specific. That will get thrashed out in Committee, and don't expect too much money for Gateway if any at all.

2. Schumer might keep his promise about making enough noise about it. As for what will get delivered we will see. It will critically depend on the outcome of a few intervening elections before then.

Anyway, the general tendency at present will be to get just enough allocated to Gateway to keep it going and provide more construction funding to Portal. Portal replacement is way more critical than quick completion of Gateway at present. As has been mentioned before Gateway target dates as stated by the owners of the project is around 2025 and everyone is basically working to that schedule. So it is safe to assume that there will be no big bucks for Gateway in 2015 or 2016. Around 2017 is when Gateway might start seeing an uptick in funding. 2015/2016 might see another $100 million or so for the extension of the box if the Gateway Consortium wants to start building the building along the south west periphery of the Gateway parcel, again to preserve the RoW to NYP.

What do you realistically see happening?

 

[Andrew]

1. Budget deal is not that specific. That will get thrashed out in Committee, and don't expect too much money for Gateway if any at all.

2. Schumer might keep his promise about making enough noise about it. As for what will get delivered we will see. It will critically depend on the outcome of a few intervening elections before then.

Anyway, the general tendency at present will be to get just enough allocated to Gateway to keep it going and provide more construction funding to Portal. Portal replacement is way more critical than quick completion of Gateway at present. As has been mentioned before Gateway target dates as stated by the owners of the project is around 2025 and everyone is basically working to that schedule. So it is safe to assume that there will be no big bucks for Gateway in 2015 or 2016. Around 2017 is when Gateway might start seeing an uptick in funding. 2015/2016 might see another $100 million or so for the extension of the box if the Gateway Consortium wants to start building the building along the south west periphery of the Gateway parcel, again to preserve the RoW to NYP.

What do you realistically see happening?

1. What is the Gateway Consortium?

2. What do you realistically see happening?

 

[jis]

1. The outfit that is building all those buildings over the West Side Yard, and from whom the tunnel ROW is being protected by the tunnel box.

2. The crystal ball is hazy

 

[Andrew]

1. How deep are they looking at for the tunnel box/tunnel at 12th avenue?

2. Within Penn Station, are the exit and central corridors only on the "Lower Level" Concourse?

 

[jis]

1. I thought you are the one that wrote a long screed on that one in the last couple of days. So perhaps you should answer that for yourself

2. The LIRR Concourse, the Central Corridor, the Amtrak Exit concourse and the West End concourse, together with the Hilton Corridor and the 33rd St corridor are all at the so called Arrival Level, which is one level below the Departure Level. At the Departure level are the Main Amtrak concourse, waiting area and ticket offices, the Rotunda and the NJT East End concourse ticket offices and waiting area and restrooms. The Departure Level in turn is one level below street level.

 

[Andrew]

1. I thought you are the one that wrote a long screed on that one in the last couple of days. So perhaps you should answer that for yourself

2. The LIRR Concourse, the Central Corridor, the Amtrak Exit concourse and the West End concourse, together with the Hilton Corridor and the 33rd St corridor are all at the so called Arrival Level, which is one level below the Departure Level. At the Departure level are the Main Amtrak concourse, waiting area and ticket offices, the Rotunda and the NJT East End concourse ticket offices and waiting area and restrooms. The Departure Level in turn is one level below street level.

And based on that link someone posted about Penn Station South, the new NJ Transit Platforms will have passageways to the Exit Concourse, Central Corridor, and the East Concourse--for a total of at least 3 entryways?

 

[afigg]

2. The crystal ball is hazy

True. As the saying goes, predictions are hard, especially about the future. :blink: Even more so, when it comes to politics!

 

[Nathanael]

However the 2008 PRIAA act has expired with its direct transfer of funds from the Treasury to close out leases and a new re-authorization has not passed. Unless there is funding in the appropriations, Amtrak will probably have to skip on exercising the FY2014 early buy-out options on equipment leases to reduce debt service payments and the Warrington era debt load. We will see what happens in January, although the committee staffs will be kept busy through the holidays.

I would strongly expect that Amtrak would exercise some of the early buy-out options selectively.

On 2 January 2014 there's a huge load of EBOs for P42s, and there's simply no way Amtrak can swing that. The smallest is $13.5 million, with the total being $140.2 million, and of course this is at the beginning of January -- when we're still running on continuing resolutions, with still a threat of government shutdowns later in January, and going into the weakest period in Amtrak's fiscal year. Furthermore, Amtrak is already thinking about replacing the P42s, locomotive lives are fairly short, and Amtrak may actually want to drop them on the banks at the end of the lease term.

However, in late March there are EBOs for Surfliners (totalling $44.3 million). The State of California may be interested in assisting with those, or even buying the Surfliners. Or Amtrak may decide to use its improved budgetary position from the new state subsidies to cover this. Amtrak definitely wants to hang on to the Surfliners for a long time. And by March we may actually have a clue what the year's federal Amtrak subsidy is going to be like.

Then in June there's a small EBO for Superliners ($8.4 million) and in September there's an even smaller one ($3.5 million). I'd even guess that Amtrak is probably *likely* to decide to cover those out of its budget, since the Superliners are going to have to stay in service for quite a while.

 

[Andrew]

How would the Midterm Elections affect Amtrak's purchases of new Amfleet Cars and impact infrastructure in the NYC area?

 

[jis]

As I said the crystal ball is hazy.

 

[Andrew]

What will Amtrak have to do to convince Congressional Republicans to provide more money for Gateway/NEC?

 

[jis]

There is nothing they can do to achieve that in the short run AFAICT. So just take the lumps and hope things change in 4 years.

 

[Andrew]

But why 4 years?

 

[jis]

OK 5. Heck which part of "the crystal ball is hazy" don't you understand? :angry: You repeatedly keep asking questions that no one can answer. What is the point of asking them? Perhaps you should go and do some research on your own and come up with some grounded speculations to lead a discussion. But just asking random open ended questions is hardly a constructive way of leading a structured discussion on anything.

 

[Andrew]

Some articles have stated that the Gateway Project will cost $15 Billion, and others mention that the actual cost will be $13.5 Billion.

Why is there a large difference in the estimated overall cost of the Gateway Project?

 

[PRR 60]

What will Amtrak have to do to convince Congressional Republicans to provide more money for Gateway/NEC?

They should try to convince them that New York is more important than any other city in the country, and that besides the 2nd Avenue Subway, the 7 train extension, PATH WTC, and East Side access, that poor New York is in need of even more funding.

Hint: some who don't live in New York don't really care about pouring yet another couple of billion into yet another New York mega-project when needs in other parts of the country beg for crumbs.