Speculation about remaining life of Superliners

[railiner]

The B&O always provided great service, unlike PRR. My ride in the Shenandoah (it had a 10-6 then) was bittersweet. After so many trips on B&O’s National Ltd i knew I wouldn’t ride this route again as it was clear it wouldn’t last. I don’t know for sure but I suspect influential Congressman Harley Staggers had something to do with its existence.

I agree. The B&O conductor treated passengers as “his guests, riding his train”.
He truly worked hard to try to ensure its continuation, which unfortunately did not happen. The haughty PRR crews often treated passengers as an imposition.
Probably where Amtrak’s “culture” for some originated…

 

[jis]

MODERATOR'S NOTE: Let us veer back to discussing remaining life of Superliners in this thread and if so desired, start a thread of its own to share fond memories of PRR and B&O please. Thanks.

 

[Steve4031]

I remember reading that one significant issue with the superliners is maintaining the HVAC systems to prevent breakdowns. It would be great if Amtrak could find a way to address this. The carpeting attracts and retains grime. IMHO, replacing the carpet with an easily cleaned surface would be better. The same would be true of the floors in the bathrooms.

 

[AFriendly]

Internal systems like plumbing, HVAC, and electrical may need partial or complete replacement but those aren't necessarily life-limiting issues. In fact, if Amtrak was properly capitalized, these systems would have been rehabbed on the Superliners a long time ago. As an example, the last passenger Boeing 767 rolled off the line in 2011, I believe. I guarantee you that aircraft isn't flying with the same cabin it had at that time. Your limiting factors are structural integrity and possibly the wheel trucks.

 

[Siegmund]

Let me note, re "VIA proving that you can keep Heritage Fleet running for 70 years"... VIA never bought new long distance equipment, but they didn't keep all, or most, or even 25%, of their old equipment running for 70 years. When they started, there were two daily Vancouver-Toronto/Montreal trains, *three* daily Montreal-Maritime trains, 6 trains a week to Churchill, etc.

Enough equipment was still in working order 1985-1990 to restore many of the trains cut in 1981. But very soon after 1990 it became a physical impossibility to run the pre-1990 schedule even if the operating budget allowed. We are down to a tenth of the service we started with and very roughly the same proportion of serviceable equipment. It didn't "last 70 years", but lasted 40 years and was
cannibalized for parts until a few survivors lasted 70 years.

Same deal with having once had upwards of 80 RDCs, dwindling to 5 today.

Amtrak may well be able to keep 200 Superliners going another 10 years, and 100 of them going another 20. (I hope they can, since I'm sure the upcoming equipment order won't be large enough to meet demand- no previous order ever has been.)

 

[vap0rtranz]

As an example, the last passenger Boeing 767 rolled off the line in 2011, I believe.

Yup, the contrast between refresh in airlines and Amtrak makes a case that the Superliners could be refreshed nicely.

I just flew a 767 that had been upgraded by United with the lay-down seats in 1st class. I'm not wealthy enough to fly 1st but did snag a deal on Premium class, which was also upgraded to the so-called "Purple seats". Those seats recline almost as much as the Superliner coach chairs, and have nice LCD screens along with real cutlery for meals, etc. The airlines are catching on to people wanting more recline and perks, and refreshing their aging fleet fast. I think United refreshed their 767 fleet as late as 2023, and that plane 1st flew in 1982. (Man time flies!)

I hope the Superliners can be refreshed nicely. And I agree that the carpet needs to go ...

 

[Amtrak25]

Superliners need more than a "refresh". They are not even replacing the worn out AC outlets that can't hold a transformer wallwart plug or stained tweed carpet near the AC ducts. They need a rebuilding on the magnitude of the Heritage car program and the VIA HEP fleet.

 

[zephyr17]

Superliners need more than a "refresh". They are not even replacing the worn out AC outlets that can't hold a transformer wallwart plug or stained tweed carpet near the AC ducts. They need a rebuilding on the magnitude of the Heritage car program and the VIA HEP fleet.

Yes, in particular HVAC and plumbing/waste systems need heavy overhaul/refurbishment.

 

[cocojacoby]

But the Superliners were built with modular componentry so that they could be more easily rebuilt and/or refreshed. Viewliners were also made this way. So why hasn't Amtrak never even attempted to take advantage of this capability? Is it even an option discussed?

 

[GDRRiley]

But the Superliners were built with modular componentry so that they could be more easily rebuilt and/or refreshed. Viewliners were also made this way. So why hasn't Amtrak never even attempted to take advantage of this capability? Is it even an option discussed?

Money, doing that level of an overhaul is expensive. Amtrak spent 28k on 400 superliners and 50 viewliners or around 62k per car to do the interior refresh. A major mechanical upgrade is 500k-1M per car.

 

[Amtrak25]

New cars will cost $5 million and up. Some say the Superliner replacement cars will cost $17 million each, which means it won't happen, even if somebody makes a bid and nothing says anybody has to. $1 million is cheap at the price. If they are going to run until at least 2035, they need it regardless.

 

[Steve4031]

One million per car is significantly cheaper than purchasing many new cars. And IMHO, it would be a worthwhile expenditure to keep the superliners running until the new cars enter service.

 

[GDRRiley]

One million per car is significantly cheaper than purchasing many new cars. And IMHO, it would be a worthwhile expenditure to keep the superliners running until the new cars enter service.

At 1M each 20-33% the cost of a new car. It should have been done years ago when the superliner II hit 25 not as they are hitting 30 of a 40-45 year life.

 

[Cal]

One million per car is significantly cheaper than purchasing many new cars. And IMHO, it would be a worthwhile expenditure to keep the superliners running until the new cars enter service.

Well the question isn't overhaul or buying new cars. The latter has to happen, and the former really should happen.

 

[Green Maned Lion]

The problem you run into is that when you are done spedning more likely nearly 2 million per car (1 million would have been a good estimate before the Pandemic turned a bunch of things on its head, particularly skilled labor cost) to end up with a car that is substantially into its limited useful life. The SIs aren't Budd cars; they are Pullman-Standards, which typically were not as long lasting. Can they be kept to 75 years, with all this investment? I doubt it. 60? Some of the fleet can; some of it not. The S-1s are already over 40 years old, and the problems I'm talking about are structural fatigue issues that are only repairable in the sense that the Ship Of Theseus was repairable.

Is it worth spending $2 million a car to get 20-25 years out of the fleet, when $5 million would get you a new car that probably has 50 years of useful life with substantially lower initial maintenance? Notwithstanding certain current political issues that might involve clawing back Amtrak's current monetary comfort, this is a rare time where it may actually be possible to replace the cars; a process that will take a decade anyway. At which point, the SIs will be 56 years old: and almost certainly some of them will be approaching that point of structural fatigue.

 

[JWM]

Delta is the prime example of how excellent maintenance and upgrading keeps older aircraft flying and passengers satisfied. When the CEO of Delta, Ed Bastian, was asked last year why Delta kept refurbishing and upgrading older aircraft, he responded "They're paid for"! So are the Superliners. An intensive maintenance and upgrade program complete with regular maintenance and cleaning (yes, the windows, too) would keep them going. I am not optimistic about just how new "Superliners" will turn out. Via's domes and more, which are only proposed, look a lot better to me.

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

The problem you run into is that when you are done spedning more likely nearly 2 million per car (1 million would have been a good estimate before the Pandemic turned a bunch of things on its head, particularly skilled labor cost) to end up with a car that is substantially into its limited useful life. The SIs aren't Budd cars; they are Pullman-Standards, which typically were not as long lasting. Can they be kept to 75 years, with all this investment? I doubt it. 60? Some of the fleet can; some of it not. The S-1s are already over 40 years old, and the problems I'm talking about are structural fatigue issues that are only repairable in the sense that the Ship Of Theseus was repairable.

Is it worth spending $2 million a car to get 20-25 years out of the fleet, when $5 million would get you a new car that probably has 50 years of useful life with substantially lower initial maintenance? Notwithstanding certain current political issues that might involve clawing back Amtrak's current monetary comfort, this is a rare time where it may actually be possible to replace the cars; a process that will take a decade anyway. At which point, the SIs will be 56 years old: and almost certainly some of them will be approaching that point of structural fatigue.

Plus that mechanical work would necessitate all the other cosmetic and other refurbishment/refresh/rehabilitation work.

 

[lrh442]

The S-1s are already over 40 years old, and the problems I'm talking about are structural fatigue issues that are only repairable in the sense that the Ship Of Theseus was repairable.

Is it worth spending $2 million a car to get 20-25 years out of the fleet, when $5 million would get you a new car that probably has 50 years of useful life with substantially lower initial maintenance?

Ship of Theseus - a great analogy (I had to look it up).

Regarding the value of overhaul versus new fleet, a bird in the hand (overhaul existing SLs) is worth two in the bush (dream of full fleet replacement).

I wish Gardner & company were pursuing both. My guess is they wouldn't be too disappointed if the next-gen LD procurement fails, and they can then focus on more shiny new stuff for the NEC.