Well, my point regarding CAHSR is really one of network design; with CAHSR operating, it may not make sense to run the one-a-day train from Seattle all the way through to LA. It'll still make sense to run trains on the Coast Line -- and yes, more trains than today -- but people will get used to transfers, and more transfers may make more sense! I would be totally OK with the Coast Starlight running from the Pacific Northwest to NorCal with a change of trains at Sacramento, Oakland, or San Jose to a frequent, many-times-daily corridor service along the coast from NorCal to SoCal.
Much like the current change of trains at LA if you're heading to San Diego.
I'd be curious as to whether there would be any savings by dropping the through operation.
Consider scenario A and scenario B:A: lots of trains heading down the coast line, HSR down the Central Valley, Coast Starlight goes to LA
B: lots of trains heading down the coast line, HSR down the Central Valley, Coast Starlight stops at Sacramento and is replaced with *one more* regional train on the Coast Line
In scenario B, the regional train has more reliable scheduling than the Coast Starlight would, giving it more riders. It's likely also cheaper to operate.
You know how I feel about transfers. Maybe if HSR has unreserved seating and if you miss your connection in Sacramento or the Bay Area and you don't have to wait in a long line to change your ticket for a later train when you miss your connection (like I did) it might be worth it. It also depends on how much quicker the HSR train is from SAC to LAX than the CS is. If it's an hour or two savings, I'd probably rather stay on the CS. If it's close to the difference between the situation in Philly right now (the transfer to either WAS or NYP saves about 6 hrs compared to the Cardinal), I would make the transfer.
In reality, if the lack of transfer is any advantage for Amtrak, I think they'd be foolish to give it away and lose their business between the Bay Area and LAX (that's currently around 14 hours on the CS between SAC and LAX). If they do terminate the CS in Northern California, who would then take an Amtrak train unless they run as quick as HSR does? And if Amtrak could run anywhere close to HSR speed between SAC and LAX then the time difference is not as great and the lack of transfer becomes a bonus for Amtrak.
The other potential HSR threat to Amtrak is Xpress West (
http://www.xpresswest.com/network.html) if they get to Denver. Could passengers from CHI to LAX then take the CZ to DEN and transfer to an Xpress West to LAX?
In reality, Amtrak really was dumb to give up on Vegas in 1997. They should have at least begun LAX-Vegas service back when the 750 mile rule wasn't in place. Now with it in place, why would Nevada spend a dime on a LAX-Vegas route when Xpress West is on its way? Now Amtrak has lost the Vegas market permanently.
I've always wanted Amtrak to have competition. Maybe these moves (and AAF) actually forces Amtrak to try to expand or improve service instead of them saying to us "we know you're going to ride our trains no matter how lousy they are".