A point we need to consider is the greatly aging ridership on the Long Distance Trains. It is aging,
Citation needed. I say the ridership isn't aging -- I say it's getting younger! The ridership is rising continuously among the under-30s.
The work I've seen indicates that there is a continuous drop in ridership by age bracket until you get to the children of the 1970s, and then ridership starts going up again as you get younger.
One of my single focal points as a transit advocate in New Jersey is trying to figure out ways to fight the fact that the advocacy is aging into the grave.
Now, THAT's true. The advocates are aging out. Youth are in different advocacy groups -- usually pushing for local train service. Or even for *sidewalks*. (Gotta start with the basics.)
But the younger people ARE taking the trains from Chicago to Cleveland, upstate NY, Boston, NYC, Pittsburgh, DC, New Orleans, Little Rock, Dallas, Kansas City, Denver, California, Minneapolis, Chicago, Portland, and Seattle. Which are referred to as "long distance trains" for whatever reason. (And I can come up with similar examples not starting in Chicago.)
There may be some weird demographic effects. Certain *states* are becoming aged. Florida -- the most aged state -- seems to have particularly undeveloped youth support for train service. (A number of the other "oldest states" are in the Northeast, and accordingly have substantially more support for train service than average for the country.)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/26/real_estate/americas_oldest_states/
I wouldn't be hopeful about West Virginia.
In addition, some of the states with the most young people have essentially no Amtrak service for them to take.
Utah: Salt Lake City built a light rail system with six branches, an intercity "commuter" railroad running 88 miles, and a streetcar line, all in the last 15 years. They obviously want passenger rail service. But the one-a-day, middle-of-the-night, slower-than-driving California Zephyr isn't the service they want. (I'm not sure if a viable service can be established from Salt Lake to anywhere outside Utah, but I think the only reasonable possibility would be Salt Lake to Denver via Wyoming -- which of course isn't regularly served.)
Texas: Again, Texas has built a *lot* of passenger rail recently, though not quite as fast as Utah. The Texas Eagle is getting a lot of ridership considering its situation, and apparently the ridership just keeps growing, but it's extremely slow and unreliable. (And often cancelled!) The demand is present in Texas; it's the supply which is missing. Texas demographics mean Texas is going to hit a political sea-change point sooner rather than later, but I'm not sure exactly when.
Obama’s health care rollout and effectiveness, and especially popularity, has been a disaster. This has removed whats left of Obama’s basic power base, and increased the polarity of non-liberals against the democrat point of view.
You're read the politics wrong here. I've spent years following this.
Obama's powerbase effectively doesn't matter because he isn't running for re-election. It's not the same as the Democratic Party powerbase. (Which seems to be falling apart independently... see below...)
Right-wingers didn't change their views on Obama due to ACA... more the other way around, from what the polls said. They changed their views on ACA (aka Romneycare) because Obama supported it.
The political pattern I've seen is this:
- the Republican Party is going more and more doctrinaire and adding more and more things where they say "You must support/oppose this particular thing fanatically or we will cast you out, heretic". As a result, people are abandoning it in droves, from all political wings of the party.
- the Democratic Party is seizing parts of the former territory of the Republican Party -- the "corporate welfare" and "military industrial complex" positions. This is causing frustrated left-wingers to abandon *it*.
- so the percentage of the population identifying as independents increases every year
- but because of Duverger's Law, the two-party duopoly creaks onward and will continue to do so until there is an even larger critical mass of independents. At which point US politics will suddenly get even more unstable than it is now. Our first-past-the-post election system is very problematic because it does not handle more than two parties well.
- Personally I advocate approval voting, which is simple and comprehensible and eliminates the "spoiler" problem.