The next few years, take 2

[neroden]

I'm sure there are problems with the negotiations. The fact, however, is that Amtrak is throwing away revenue by failing to connect to other modes of transportation. Whatever they think they're gaining by not making a deal, they're losing more by throwing the revenue in the trash can. This is not really disputable; the evidence regarding the benefit of connections to ticket sales is pretty overwhelming.

Have you seen any estimates of projected revenue difference between the two stations? I have not, though I am willing to take it as a working hypothesis that terminating at MIC would be better. but I have not seen anything quantified. So I do take your claims about overwhelming with a due pinch of salt Frankly the only additional thing it connects to at MIC is the Metro

And, of course, the *airport* ?!?! Did you forget that somehow? I wouldn't be surprised to see people taking flights from Havana to Miami and taking Amtrak further north.

Also, the entire rental car operation at the airport. I can't count how many Amtrak trips I've taken where it has been a massive pain in the neck that I can't get a rental car at my destination station. Direct access to the rental car stuff at the airport will induce a *lot* more people to take Amtrak to Miami.

 

[jis]

I'm sure there are problems with the negotiations. The fact, however, is that Amtrak is throwing away revenue by failing to connect to other modes of transportation. Whatever they think they're gaining by not making a deal, they're losing more by throwing the revenue in the trash can. This is not really disputable; the evidence regarding the benefit of connections to ticket sales is pretty overwhelming.

Have you seen any estimates of projected revenue difference between the two stations? I have not, though I am willing to take it as a working hypothesis that terminating at MIC would be better. but I have not seen anything quantified. So I do take your claims about overwhelming with a due pinch of salt Frankly the only additional thing it connects to at MIC is the Metro

And, of course, the *airport* ?!?! Did you forget that somehow? I wouldn't be surprised to see people taking flights from Havana to Miami and taking Amtrak further north.
Also, the entire rental car operation at the airport. I can't count how many Amtrak trips I've taken where it has been a massive pain in the neck that I can't get a rental car at my destination station. Direct access to the rental car stuff at the airport will induce a *lot* more people to take Amtrak to Miami.

Good points.

 

[west point]

And, of course, the *airport* ?!?! Did you forget that somehow? I wouldn't be surprised to see people taking flights from Havana to Miami and taking Amtrak further north.

Also, the entire rental car operation at the airport. I can't count how many Amtrak trips I've taken where it has been a massive pain in the neck that I can't get a rental car at my destination station. Direct access to the rental car stuff at the airport will induce a *lot* more people to take Amtrak to Miami.

You can only get more people to take Amtrak to MIC when Amtrak gets the additional equipment to carry those passengers. Granted the possible additional passengers may be Floridians or Florida visitors that want to catch an airplane from MIA international airport.

 

[afigg]

You can only get more people to take Amtrak to MIC when Amtrak gets the additional equipment to carry those passengers. Granted the possible additional passengers may be Floridians or Florida visitors that want to catch an airplane from MIA international airport.

Why would Amtrak need additional equipment to serve MIC? Setting aside Sanford for the AutoTrain, Miami/Hialeah is only Amtrak's 4th busiest station in Florida after Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville with 70.5K passengers in FY2015. That indicates that the Star and Meteor are not very full arriving or departing at Hialeah. Better transit connections and direct access to car rentals for the Miami station should boost business at Miami, with likely the larger portion of the increase coming for intra-Florida traffic. Filling empty seats south of Orlando will add revenue after all.

Now, when Amtrak might actually move to the new Miami Airport station, there appears to be no news on that at all.

 

[A Voice]

Amtrak would need additional equipment to serve MIC if the added passengers, on sold out or nearly so trains, were traveling to and from points north of central Florida. You otherwise run the risk of the 'new' passenger merely displacing someone who would have traveled anyway, and thus there is no significant added revenue and no real benefit; You're just carrying a different passenger instead of an additional passenger.

Now, filling what would otherwise be empty seats is a different matter, as you note, and if most of the MIC traffic would be to/from points south of Orlando and Tampa, where many of those seats may open up, there would be a benefit.

The real question is where are the empty seats, and how can they be filled without displacing existing business.

 

[west point]

A voice:: Good points and we are aware that Tampa boards more passenger for southbound Star than total Atlanta boardings.

 

[jis]

Little known outside the inner circles ... Amtrak offered Florida DOT to run an intra-Florida service JAX - ORL - TPA - MIA using the Talgo sets now going to California, and Florida DOT turned it down. That was pretty much the end of that. The same DOT is now involved in the clusterf**k at MIC. Expectations necessarily are low.

 

[afigg]

Getting back to new/re-built stations that Amtrak is using, news from last week. Progressive Railroading: Illinois DOT opens first new station on Chicago-St. Louis higher-speed route. Excerpt:

The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) yesterday held a ceremony to mark the completion of a new passenger-rail station in Dwight, Ill., along the Chicago-St. Louis higher-speed Amtrak route.

The $3.26 million depot, which opened for service today, is the first new station to open to passengers on the route, IDOT officials said in a press release. In August 2015, construction began on the 1,500-square-foot structure, which features free Wi-Fi service and a temperature-controlled waiting room.

 

[Eric S]

Getting back to new/re-built stations that Amtrak is using, news from last week. Progressive Railroading: Illinois DOT opens first new station on Chicago-St. Louis higher-speed route. Excerpt:

The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) yesterday held a ceremony to mark the completion of a new passenger-rail station in Dwight, Ill., along the Chicago-St. Louis higher-speed Amtrak route.

The $3.26 million depot, which opened for service today, is the first new station to open to passengers on the route, IDOT officials said in a press release. In August 2015, construction began on the 1,500-square-foot structure, which features free Wi-Fi service and a temperature-controlled waiting room.

First new station? What about Normal?

 

[afigg]

First new station? What about Normal?

Who ever wrote the IDOT news release may be splitting hairs on the "completion" of the station project or how the Normal station was funded for a headline calling it the first new station to get more attention. Checking the Chicago - St. Louis IDOT website, the webpage for Station Improvements says this for the Normal station:

Normal - A new multi-modal facility, funded outside of this project with a Transportation Investments Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER) grant received by the Town, was opened in July 2012. The High-Speed Rail project is funding a second platform and upgrades to the south waiting room. Construction is ongoing and is anticipated to be completed by early 2017.

 

[neroden]

Little known outside the inner circles ... Amtrak offered Florida DOT to run an intra-Florida service JAX - ORL - TPA - MIA using the Talgo sets now going to California, and Florida DOT turned it down. That was pretty much the end of that. The same DOT is now involved in the clusterf**k at MIC. Expectations necessarily are low.

Ohhh, FlaDOT is involved and making trouble? This doesn't surprise me. This is *Rick Scott*'s Florida DOT, given the timeline. (I'm guessing the offer was NOT made way back before Scott took office in 2011.) Scott is an out-and-out crook, which was known before he was elected (he was the CEO of the company which engineered the biggest fraud against Medicare ever). Reports I've read say that he's turned all state agencies into "pay a bribe if you want a permit" operations. He deliberately sabotaged the Tampa-Orlando HSR project. The stories coming out of DOT about the highway projects say that it's a sewer of constant corruption, which at this point is no surprise.

If-and-when Amtrak moves into the Miami Airport station I'm guessing it'll be through a direct deal with Miami-Dade County (who owns the airport), because FlaDOT is nothing but trouble right now. I actually didn't realize FlaDOT was involved at all.

 

[jis]

Unfortunately when FDOT funds part of something they have their nose deep ion said something.

 

[afigg]

Last week, the FRA posted fact sheets for 3 corridors that list all the projects on the corridor with (estimated) completion year for each project. Useful overview of the funded projects for those corridors. The links to the eLibrary page are below (can read or download the 2 page PDFs from there).

New York – Albany (Empire, Adirondack, Ethan Allen Express). Shows the $23 Syracuse Congestion Relief project as in the planning/design phase with completion in 2018. I wondered what was going on with that HSIPR award.

Corridor Map: New Haven, CT to St. Albans, VT. All the remaining projects are to be done in 2017.

Corridor Map: Boston – Portland – Brunswick (Downeaster). So the $26 million of double track and other improvements on the MBTA Haverhill line finally get completed in 2017? That is a project that has reportedly moved along at a snail's pace. if even that fast.

 

[Palmetto]

Re the Downeaster, the Massachusetts part of it will STILL not have total double track. There will be a section of single track between Wilmington [on the Lowell Line] and Wilmingtion Jct. [on the Haverhill Line]. Also, about two mile of track thru Ballardvale station. Both potential bottlenecks which the good folks from NNERPA would rather not have. But, as they say: It's the T.

 

[neroden]

Re the Downeaster, the Massachusetts part of it will STILL not have total double track. There will be a section of single track between Wilmington [on the Lowell Line] and Wilmingtion Jct. [on the Haverhill Line].

That part's the Wildcat Branch, right? That's OK. It's mainly used by the Downeaster (I think there are a couple of MBTA expresses, but maybe there aren't, and the occasional freight but not often, and some non-revenue moves). This low traffic can be scheduled. As long as you don't have two Downeasters meeting there, it's fine; it's not as if there's any significant commuter rail traffic there.

Also, about two mile of track thru Ballardvale station. Both potential bottlenecks which the good folks from NNERPA would rather not have. But, as they say: It's the T.

The Ballardville station section is *much* more problematic, since the full Haverhill line commuter schedule runs through there.
At some point MBTA and NNERPA will need to get money to rebuild Ballardville. Double-tracking will require a new platform, which will require a high platform, which will probably require a freight gauntlet track... it'll be a Yawkey-sized project at least.

 

[afigg]

Update on the timeframe for starting the Quad Cities service: Moline expects passenger rail to be rolling by early 2018. Excerpts:

Passenger rail is on track to return to the Quad Cities by early 2018.

That's the word from Moline officials, who learned that final track work should begin in January 2017. That work includes $177 million in federal funding that's waiting for state release.

.....

Forsythe said he received assurances from Illinois that work will start on final track renovations and construction in January 2017.

Will they actually start service in early 2018 or will the schedule slip again?

 

[Palmetto]

From railroad.net, the report is that the connection between the BNSF and the IAIS at Wyanet, IL has not yet started, and there has been no track upgrade between there and Moline on the IAIS. IOW, lots of work left. I don't think "early 2018" is realistic.

 

[neroden]

From railroad.net, the report is that the connection between the BNSF and the IAIS at Wyanet, IL has not yet started, and there has been no track upgrade between there and Moline on the IAIS. IOW, lots of work left. I don't think "early 2018" is realistic.

It's perfectly realistic *if* the engineering and land acquisition is done. The actual construction itself is fast.

We have no way of telling how far along the engineering and land acquisition is. If they haven't bought any parcels and they haven't designed the upgraded grade crossings or signal system yet then, yes, it'll take a long time. If they have a complete set of engineering diagrams, have approval of the designs from the FRA, BNSF, IAIS, and Illinois DOT, have finished geotechnical investigations, and have purchased all the land, then they could start construction in the spring and be done in the summer.

I remember they said that engineering was getting very close to completion just before Rauner suspended all work, so that's a good sign. But I don't know about land acquisition.

 

[neroden]

Minor updates:

-- They're still promising Moline will open in 2018, with "final" track construction starting in early 2017. Must be basically done with design.

-- Vermont extension to Burlington has slipped to 2021 (!!!) according to the last promised date from the state transportation agency; Middlebury tunnel is now supposed to be done in 2019, so they can't really do the extension until 2020 even in the most optimistic case

-- Montrealer extension is apparently waiting for the US Congress to pass a law authorizing Customs and Border Patrol agencies to work in Canada. We have a treaty, we have a law passed through Canadian Parliament, but now we have to wait for the US Congress. Oy. Maybe it can be slipped into some omnibus bill or continuing resolution, since it should be uncontroversial. But otherwise who knows how long this will take... and THEN we find out about construction costs and negotiating with CN and so on... oy.

-- Raleigh Union Station is on track for a 2018 opening (well under construction)

-- Niagara Falls OPENED (see other thread)

-- Roanake is supposed to be constructed in 2017 (they're now looking for a contractor) and operating in 2018 (apparently building the station is the only known sticking point)

-- Middletown PA is now supposed to start construction in mid-2018 (trackwork is ongoing already, though)

-- Rochester NY is expected to open "late summer 2017" now (yay). Construction progress is looking good.

-- Albany-Rensselear's fourth track is apparently in place and in use. (I think that means the fourth platform edge is also in use.) Platform length extension remains in progress.

http://www.timesunion.com/tuplus-business/article/Rensselaer-rail-improvements-expected-to-reduce-10699887.php#photo-11942608

 

[WoodyinNYC]

Any info on Harold Interlocking? New track is supposed to get NEC trains out of the tunnel from Penn Station, thru Sunnyside Yard, and headed over Hellgate Bridge.

I can forgive them if the deadlines have slipped. They are building this in the same time and place where the LIRR is working on the East Side Access tunnel approaches to Grand Central Station. So two important projects trying to get work done in the same two acres. And hurry up, dammit. LOL.

But it's a $300 million Stimulus project, so it faces a deadline. When the grant was announced, there was talk of saving up to 3 minutes out of the Acela schedule NYC-New Haven-Providence-Boston. That would be a sweet tweak to the timetable.

 

[jis]

My understanding is that the Harold Bypass project is intimately intertwined with the East Side Access Project and to some extent slippage in the latter affects the former. However, I have no idea what the current expected completion date is for the Harold Bypass, but would still assume that it is sometime before the end of 2017, unless they have figured out a way of rearranging the funding and spending of the Stimulus money.and cleverly redefined what "completion" means. As we know East Side Access has slipped to something like 2021 now.

 

[west point]

The problem with many projects to speed up transit times is as one section is upgraded to past standards another slowly deteriorates to a slower speed. Look at the SW chief. Now when the Harold bypass is completed then you have a permanent improvement. Even the new Portal bridge replacement MAS (90 MPH) is just a rebuild as the original Portal had a 90 MPH limit that was reduced to 60 MPH due to deteoriation. Granted there will not be the occasional delays due to bridge openings so on time reliability will improve.

 

[afigg]

Any info on Harold Interlocking? New track is supposed to get NEC trains out of the tunnel from Penn Station, thru Sunnyside Yard, and headed over Hellgate Bridge.

I can forgive them if the deadlines have slipped. They are building this in the same time and place where the LIRR is working on the East Side Access tunnel approaches to Grand Central Station. So two important projects trying to get work done in the same two acres. And hurry up, dammit. LOL.

But it's a $300 million Stimulus project, so it faces a deadline. When the grant was announced, there was talk of saving up to 3 minutes out of the Acela schedule NYC-New Haven-Providence-Boston. That would be a sweet tweak to the timetable.

The Harold Interlocking project is a part of the East Side Access project, they are not separate projects. If you want to find out more on the status, check the rather detailed quarterly reports on the MTA ESA project document webpage. However, the last quarterly report is from the 1st quarter of CY2016, so the progress numbers are not up to date. From a skim read of the 1st Qtr CY16 report, the total cost numbers for the Harold Interlocking subprojects (near the end of the report) greatly exceed the federal stimulus amount. So I suspect they are spending or drawing down the stimulus funds through to the Sept 2017 deadline and then will draw on other fund sources to complete the interlocking project. Which has 2022 completion dates in the report for the last phases. So, along with the entire East Side Access project, (which could be called The Big Dig 2, the sequel), the completion of the Harold Interlocking project could be a long ways off.

As for the trip time savings, 2 or 3 minutes reduction for NYP-BOS will be nice. But the problems and track work on the New Haven line have increased the trip times on the northern end of the NEC in recent years, so the NYP-BOS Acela trips time have been getting worse and ever further away from the 3:08 or 3:20 goals that were in the plans back in the circa 2010 timeframe. The Walk bridge replacement project in Norwalk reportedly will result in a 2 track bottleneck for up to 2 years during the construction work; that won't help with NYP-NHV trip times.

 

[afigg]

-- Roanake is supposed to be constructed in 2017 (they're now looking for a contractor) and operating in 2018 (apparently building the station is the only known sticking point)

December 6 article in the Roanoke Times: State hunts for contractor to build Roanoke Amtrak platform. Excerpt:

The state is in the process of choosing a contractor to build Virginia’s first raised Amtrak platform in downtown Roanoke.

Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation spokesman Chris Smith said Monday that crews likely will start building the boarding facility early next year and need 10 months to complete it.

Officials expect the service to begin in late 2017. When the project was announced in 2014, officials predicted service would launch in September 2017.

If they have not even awarded the contract yet, I would count on delays. So, yea, Roanoke service likely won't start until early 2018. The article, BTW, has a tentative schedule with a 6:19 am departure from Roanoke.

 

[Thirdrail7]

The problem with many projects to speed up transit times is as one section is upgraded to past standards another slowly deteriorates to a slower speed. Look at the SW chief. Now when the Harold bypass is completed then you have a permanent improvement. Even the new Portal bridge replacement MAS (90 MPH) is just a rebuild as the original Portal had a 90 MPH limit that was reduced to 60 MPH due to determination. Granted there will not be the occasional delays due to bridge openings so on time reliability will improve.

The new Portal Bridge is supposed to have a higher clearance for ships, so that will reduce the amount of openings. BTW, when did Portal have a 90mph speed limit?