Tracking FY 2024-25 Ridership and Finances

[Septa9739]

Cannonball's a good name for the Norfolk NER: straight alignment, express to Petersburg, and there's a cannonball in the wall of St. Paul's Church in Norfolk. Lord Dunmore shot it from a British ship on the first day of 1776. But as Miles in Transit says, "bring back flag stops!"

Thank you for the validation. I started calling it that as a mistake, and stopped on the forum to avoid confusion. But I left it in my private notes, because I liked it.

 

[Septa9739]

Thanks for posting this stuff -- definitely interesting! Wish there was a way to adjust, extract or combine to get a clearer Hiawatha picture. It has not 100% versus 2019 but now that about 15% of CHI-MKE-CHI trips (14 of 96 weekly) are under Borealis there's no solid way to know how close CHI-MKE-CHI is to full recovery.

If I had to guess, maybe a third (optimistically) is CHI-MKE, which would make 7,000ish, leaving the corridor still about 20,000 off.

 

[railiner]

Cannonball's a good name for the Norfolk NER: straight alignment, express to Petersburg, and there's a cannonball in the wall of St. Paul's Church in Norfolk. Lord Dunmore shot it from a British ship on the first day of 1776. But as Miles in Transit says, "bring back flag stops!"

I suppose because the Petersburg to Norfolk segment runs over the former N&W, and N&W did operate a Cannonball it inherited from its 1964 merger with the Wabash (between St. Louis and Detroit) until Amtrak start day; is another validation of that name…

 

[thefirewarde]

The Carolinian is up massively - surely with ridership *that* strong there's more impetus to get the new Charlotte overnight facilities active and run a longer consist, possibly also to expand from a six car Airo to an eight car.

 

[Septa9739]

The Carolinian is up massively - surely with ridership *that* strong there's more impetus to get the new Charlotte overnight facilities active and run a longer consist, possibly also to expand from a six car Airo to an eight car.

I should have noted that in the data. The 221% number is an anomaly. There must have been some issue with the route in August 2019. In a broader context, the route is running around its 2012 levels, so these numbers aren’t totally unprecedented. On the other hand, the train has been pulling close to 500 passengers per frequency for months. To me that justifies an eight car set, if not a second frequency, especially with the Floridian coming.

 

[thefirewarde]

If there was a spot to park it overnight I think they would be running longer consists. As is they sometimes cut the baggage car for another coach.

 

[Septa9739]

The September (year end) report came out today. For now I will just post a snippet of my annual ridership table with some basic notes. Record means an all time record with the number of years since. I will offer commentary at a later time.

	2019	2023	2024
Acela	3,577,500	2,959,400	3,238,100	Best in 5
Regional	8,940,000	9,162,400	10,800,000	Record (First time over 10,000,000)
Extras	7,400	0	0
NEC Service Line	12,525,600	12,121,800	14,038,100
Ethan Allen	50,500	86,600	89,000	Record 1 year
Vermonter	99,300	101,900	109,100	Record 1 year
Empire West	389,800	452,700	506,600	Record 1 year (First time over 500,000)
Downeaster	557,200	539,900	591,100	Record 11 year
Berkshire Flyer	0	1,200	800
Springfield Shuttle	362,400	439000	577,200	Record 1 year (First time over 500,000)
Keystone	1,576,000	1,106,300	1,284,000	Still off
Empire South	1,214,200	1,245,600	1,358,600	Record 1 year
Great River Service	0		88,400	Record 0 years
Lincoln Service	627,600	523,600	586,200	Best in 5
Hiawatha	882,200	635,000	665,300	Best in 5
Wolverines	501,100	420,600	425,800	Best in 5
Illini/Saluki	267,000	270,000	296,600	Best in 10
Illinois Service	192,600	114,500	141,700	Better than last year
Heartland Flyer	68,700	72,400	80,400	Best in 11
Pacific Surfliner	2,779,200	1,516,700	1,983,000	Best in 5 (Despite Rockslides)
Cascades	828,200	668,400	938,400	Record 12 years
Capitol Corridor	1,777,100	905,400	1,032,600	HELP ME
San Joquin	1,071,200	846,900	908,900	Best in 5 (Still not great)
Adirondack	117,500	24,700	69,900	Mess (still best in 5)
Blue Water	181,800	168,800	174,900	Best in 5
Roanoke Regional	220,900	324,600	334,500	Record 1 year
Newport News	335,200	355,700	373,100	Best since 2014
Norfolk Regional	239,900	479,500	507,800	Record 1 year (First time over 500,000)
Richmond Regional	128,700	153,200	148,800	Best since 2018
Hoosier State	20,900	0	0
Missouri River Runner	154,400	153,200	187,800	Best in 11
Pennsylvanian	215,100	192,700	233,900	Best I have
Gulf Coast Limited	0	0
Pere Marquette	97,600	85,800	94,400	Best in 5
Carolinian	244,800	315,800	347,400	Best I have
Piedmont	214,200	290,000	360,700	Record 1 year
Extras	25,400	100	0
State Supported	15,440,700		14,496,900
Silver Star	390,000	351,700	388,100	2019 level
Cardinal	108,900	82,700	93,000	Best in 5
Silver Meteor	353,500	283,900	298,300	Best in 5
Empire Builder	433,400	349,000	388,000	Best in 5
Capitol Limited	209,600	126,300	163,100	Best in 2
California Zephyr	410,800	328,700	351,200	Best in 5
Southwest Chief	338,200	253,800	261,500	Best in 5
City of New Orleans	235,700	253,900	241,800	Slid
Texas Eagle	321,700	294,400	325,700	Best in 6
Sunset Limited	92,800	77,300	76,900	Slid
Coast Starlight	426,000	337,400	358,500	Best in 5
Lakeshore Limited	357,700	351,000	398,400	Best in 12 (5,400) short of all time
Palmetto	345,300	318,000	357,200	Best in 6
Crescent	295,200	270,000	303,100	Best in 11
Auto Train	236,000	283,600	266,600	Slid
All Long Distance	4,554,800	3,961,700	4,271,400

Every Route that set a record last year set one again (except the Auto Train). Additionally, the Cascades and Carolinian toppled long time records, as might have the Pennsylvanian. The NEC numbers are remarkable. State supported is spotty. Long distance is ugly (2019 wasn’t a great year and most routes fall short. The Lakeshore and Crescent are two notable bright spots, posting 10+ year highs.

 

[west point]

LD trains only averaged 774 less riders per day for FY 2024.That would be ~~~ 15 more coaches for 50 riders on all LD trains. Just a little less than 1 extra coach sold on each LD train. Add just one more sleeper with 25 riders then only 1/2 - 2/3 of 1 extra coach needed

 

[Septa9739]

Rank		2012		2024	Change
1	NER	8,014,175	NER	10,800,000	None
2	Acela	3,395,354	Acela	3,238,100	None
3	PacSurf	2,640,342	PACSURF	1,983,000	None
4	Capitol Corridor	1,746,397	Empire South	1,358,600	3
5	Keystone	1,420,392	Keystone	1,284,000	None
6	San Joaquin	1,144,616	Capitol Corridor	1,032,600	-2
7	Empire South	1,062,715	Cascades	938,400	1
8	Cascades	845,099	San Joaquin	908,900	-2
9	Hiawatha	838,355	Hiawatha	665,300	None
10	Newport Regional	623,864	Downeaster	591,100	3
11	Lincoln Service	597,519	Lincoln Service	586,200	None
12	Empire Builder	543,072	Springfield Shuttle	577,200	7
13	Downeaster	541,757	Norfolk Regional	507,800	Did not exist
14	Wolverines	484,138	Empire West	506,600	3
15	Coast Starlight	454,443	Wolverine	425,800	-1
16	Silver Star	425,794	LSL	398,400	2
17	Empire West	407,729	Silver Star	388,100	-1
18	Lakeshore Limited	403,700	Empire Builder	388,000	-6
19	Springfield Shuttle	384,834	Newport Regional	373,100	-7
20	California Zephyr	376,459	Piedmont	360,700	16
21	Silver Meteor	375,164	Coast Starlight	358,500	-6
22	Southwest Chief	355,316	Palmetto	357,200	10
23	Texas Eagle	337,973	California Zephyr	351,200	-3
24	Illini/Saluki	325,255	Carolinian	347,400	1
25	Carolinian	306,419	Roanoke	334,500	10
26	Crescent	304,266	Texas Eagle	325,600	-3
27	Auto Train	264,096	Crescent	303,100	-1
28	City of New Orleans	253,170	Silver Meteor	298,300	-7
29	Illinois Service	232,592	Illini/Saluki	296,600	-5
30	Capitol Limited	226,884	Auto Train	266,200	-3
31	Pennsylvanian	212,006	SWC	261,500	-9
32	Palmetto	198,260	City of New Orleans	241,800	-4
33	MO River Runner	195,885	Pennsylvanian	233,900	-2
34	Blue Water	189,193	MO River Runner	187,800	-1
35	Lynchburger	184,907	Capitol Limited	163,100	-5
36	Piedmont	162,657	Blue Water	174,900	-2
37	Adirondack	131,869	Richmond Regional	148,800	Did Not Exist
38	Cardinal	116,373	IL Zephyr	141,700	-9
39	Pere Marquette	109,321	Vermonter	109,100	3
40	Sunset Limited	101,217	Pere Marquette	94,400	-1
41	Heartland Flyer	87,873	Cardinal	93,000	-3
42	Vermonter	82,086	Ethan Allen	89,000	1
43	Ethan Allen	54,376	Borealis	88,400	Did not exist
44	Hoosier State	36,669	Heartland Flyer	80,400	-3
45			Sunset Limited	76,900	-5
46			Adirondack	69,900	-9
47			Berkshire Flyer	800	Did not exist

This is another chart I made with the new data. I listed each route by ridership rank in 2012, then again in 2024. I think it’s a good thing to look at because it puts the last 12 years in prospective. There’s been tremendous growth in some areas. The Lynchburg Regional was a novel experiment by the Commonwealth of Virginia. The 13th busiest route in the country didn’t exist yet. It was the Boardman years and his vision to improve long distance was still held in great hope. The Northeast Corridor was about 3/4 as busy as it is today. Gas was pathetically expensive (even by today’s standards). The Hoosier State was giving its dying breath. Maybe others see somethings in the data I am not.

 

[Amtrakfflyer]

https://www.trains.com/trn/news-rev...-and-revenue-record-for-fiscal-2024-analysis/

The end of the article talks about federal funding being in doubt next year and the LD trains needing an advocate to push Amtrak for transparency.

“The exact method in which expenses are derived and allocated is a murky area; members of the States for Passenger Rail Coalition continue to press Amtrak for clarity. There are no comparable advocates for long-distance trains to examine line items in accounting, including corporate overhead, that impact expenses that determine operating “earnings” or “loss.””

 

[Septa9739]

As promised, the September 2024 Monthly Ridership Analysis
The following route is between 95% and 100% of pre COVID ridership

1. Empire Builder 95% (32,500)

The following twenty-eight are more
Northeast Regional 129% (985,100) possibly a best ever month

1. Ethan Allen Express 181% (6,700)
2. Vermonter 116% (8,500)
3. Empire West 131% (39,300)
4. Downeaster 108% (51,600)
5. Springfield Shuttle 146% (45,400)
6. Empire South 113% (112,700)
7. VIII.Borealis (18,800) worst full month to date, but still respectable
8. Lincoln Service 100% (50,500) a key reappearance
9. Illini/Saluki 111% (26,200)
10. Heartland Flyer 114% (5,700)
11. Cascades 122% (88,100)
12. XIII.Blue Water 104% (14,300)
13. XIV.Roanoke Regional 170% (29,300)
14. Newport Regional 131% (33,200)
15. XVI.Norfolk Regional 167% (42,900)
16. XVII.Richmond Regional 143% (12,300)
17. XVIII.Missouri River Runner 121% (16,100)
18. XIX.Pennsylvanian 116% (19,100)
19. Pere Marquette 113% (8,000)
20. XXI. Carolinian 163% (27,100)
21. XXII.Piedmont 182% (31,200)
22. XXIII. Silver Star 117% (25,100)
23. XXIV. Silver Meteor 103% (20,400)
24. XXV.Texas Eagle 117% (27,500)
25. XXVI.Palmetto 103% (28,100)
26. XXVII.Lakeshore Limited 104% (29,700)
27. XXVIII. Auto Train 111% (13,300)

This report was much better than previous months. The number of trains with less than full monthly recovery fell to 18. (February was good for about 10, there’s been a holding pattern of about 23 since April). Almost all trains made a percentage gain over August except for the San Joaquin, MO River Runner (which is still doing just fine), Carolinian (due to some sort of anomaly in 2019), and CONO (totally choking at the end, ruining a great year). Otherwise, everything settled out the year in expected fashion. The Acela had its worst month since February.

 

[Septa9739]

With that, I think the last thing I’ll publish about 2024 will be raider ship per frequency in a couple days. From there, the only thing left would be to see if anyone has any predictions for 2025.

 

[Septa9739]

	2024 Ridership	Frequencies	Riders/Train
Acela	3,238,100	8,113	399
Regional	10,800,000	16417	658
Ethan Allen	89,000	396*	225
Vermonter	109,100	264*	413
Empire West	506,600	1548*	327
Downeaster	591,100	3,604	164
Berkshire Flyer	800	22	36
Springfield Shuttle	577,200	5,474	105
Keystone	1,284,000	4,997	257
Empire South	1,358,600	5820	233
Great River Service	88,400	266	332
Lincoln Service	586,200	2,494	235
Hiawatha	665,300	4,611	144
Wolverines	425,800	1,958	217
Illini/Saluki	296,600	1,426	208
Illinois Service	141,700	1,403	101
Heartland Flyer	80,400	726	111
Pacific Surfliner	1,983,000	7,426	267
Cascades	938,400	4,665	201
Capitol Corridor	1,032,600	8,547	121
San Joquin	908,900	4,385	207
Adirondack	69,900	373	187
Blue Water	174,900	717	244
Roanoker	334,500	598*	559
Newport News	373,100	500*	746
Norfolk	507,800	813*	625
Richmond	148,800	147*	1012
Missouri River Runner	187,800	1,049	179
Pennsylvanian	233,900	587*	398
Pere Marquette	94,400	723	131
Carolinian	347,400	496*	700
Piedmont	360,700	2905	124
Silver Star	388,100	729	532
Cardinal	93,000	313	297
Silver Meteor	298,300	732	408
Empire Builder	388,000	1,392	279
Capitol Limited	163,100	726	225
California Zephyr	351,200	804*	437
Southwest Chief	261,500	723	362
City of New Orleans	241,800	729	332
Texas Eagle	325,700	726	449
Sunset Limited	76,900	312	246
Coast Starlight	358,500	730	491
Lakeshore Limited	398,400	1,396	285
Palmetto	357,200	732	488
Crescent	303,100	725	418
Auto Train	266,600	714	373

This is a chart of ridership per frequency during fiscal 2024. Most of it seems fairly straightforward. I do have a couple of observations.

1. Any number with a star indicates a frequency that seems out of place. A standard one a day train should have 732 frequencies assuming no cancellations. The Ethan Allen, Vermonter, Carolinian, Richmond Regional, have far less. The Richmond Regional number is crazy. Other more frequent regional services have similar issues. Maybe @west point might have some light to shed.
2. The CA Zephyr has more. Presumably Winter Park Express.
3. The LSL and Builder get a frequency for each number.

 

[daybeers]

658 pax per Regional is absolutely wild!

 

[Septa9739]

I’d be curious to know, on average, how many passengers are aboard at any given time. You know it’s totally possible that a seat get filled at WAS, turns over at PHL, then again at NYP, and finally at NHV.

 

[Literalman]

I think I've ridden the Northeast Corridor only three times this year on Amtrak, but a Keystone and one of the two Regional trains seemed completely full.

 

[ascii42]

I’d be curious to know, on average, how many passengers are aboard at any given time. You know it’s totally possible that a seat get filled at WAS, turns over at PHL, then again at NYP, and finally at NHV.

I believe that would be passenger miles divided by train miles, found on the last page here:

https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/...Monthly-Performance-Report-September-2024.pdf

1875.7/6.0=312.6
Though we'd want more precise numbers especially for train miles to be able to do accurate calculations.

And passenger miles / train miles *100 = average percent full, which in this case is 65.8%
And seat miles / train miles = 475 seats per train, depending on rounding errors. Does that sound right?

 

[danasgoodstuff]

The one thing I'm not seeing in these fiscal year end numbers is $ amounts and profit/loss. does that come later?

 

[Septa9739]

It’s in the report, but not terribly interesting. Systemwide loss was down to $705 million. The NEC made about a quarter billion, the SS lost about a quarter billion. Long Distance lost about 635 million, and infrastructure accounted for the rest of the loss. The traditional commutation corridors show large losses, likely lost revenue not being subsidized. The LD trains are just equipment starved.

 

[west point]

It’s in the report, but not terribly interesting. Systemwide loss was down to $705 million. The NEC made about a quarter billion, the SS lost about a quarter billion. Long Distance lost about 635 million, and infrastructure accounted for the rest of the loss. The traditional commutation corridors show large losses, likely lost revenue not being subsidized. The LD trains are just equipment starved.

The PRIIA reports that came out a long time ago had a lot to say about the revenue of LD trains. Of course, Amtrak has long buried them that a FOIA cannot get. As my memory is somewhat fuzzy the report said that almost all routes would add $750,000 of bottom line profit for each coach added to any train? Who only knows what an additional sleepers would do? Now what cut off cars at WASH for all eastern LD trains and crescent at ATL do not remember.

Cut off passenger cars have or are now at KCS, STL, DEN, SAS(?), Even ATL when mail was carried.

What cannot remember if that $750k was one car per route or one car per train???

 

[Septa9739]

	2024	2024	2024	2019	2019	2019
	Op. Rev	Exp	Ratio	Op. Rev	Exp	Ratio
Acela	533.7	399.6	133%	662.1	327.7	202%
Regional	873.7	727.2	120%	708.9	471.2	150%
Ethan Allen	2.6	8.5	31%	Non	5.6
Vermonter	3	11.5	26%	Subsidy	10.7
Empire West	20.6	44.5	46%	Revenue	34.8
Downeaster	13.6	23	59%	Not	17.6
Berkshire Flyer	NA			Available
Springfield Shuttle	9.2	40.2	23%	Non	24.4
Keystone	27.5	78.6	40%	Subsidy	55.9
Empire South*	84.6	94.8	89%	Revenue	64.7
Great River Service	4.2	7.3	58%	Not
Lincoln Service	21.9	46.8	47%	Available	32.9
Hiawatha	16.7	31	54%	Non	23.1
Wolverines	24.7	44.7	55%	Subsidy	32.9
Illini/Saluki	9.2	28.3	33%	Revenue	16.8
Illinois Service	4.5	20.3	22%	Not	15
Heartland Flyer	2.2	9.6	23%	Available	6.5
Pacific Surfliner	64.4	134.7	48%	Non	137.6
Cascades	39.8	84.4	47%	Subsidy	70.1
Capitol Corridor	25.2	73.9	34%	Revenue	72.7
San Joquin	28.8	103.4	28%	Not	98.3
Adirondack	2.4	13.4	18%	Available	13.6
Blue Water	7.5	19	39%	Non	12
Roanoker	12.2	21.7	56%	Subsidy	10.7
Newport News	14.2	25	57%	Revenue	19.1
Cannonball	19.3	34	57%	Not	14.3
Richmond	3.8	8.6	44%	Available	7.7
Missouri River Runner	6.5	20.3	32%	Non	13.7
Pennsylvanian	11.5	23.4	49%	Subsidy	17.1
Gulf Coast Limited	NA			Revenue
Pere Marquette	4	9.4	43%	Not	6
Carolinian	16.7	25.3	66%	Available	18.3
Piedmont	6.9	13.5	51%		9.3
Silver Star	40.7	95.7	43%	34.7	64.8	54%
Cardinal	9.6	30.8	31%	8.4	24.4	43%
Silver Meteor	41.7	85.8	49%	41.9	76.7	55%
Empire Builder	65.8	127.5	52%	57.5	108.4	53%
Capitol Limited	22.4	50.7	44%	20.3	44.6	46%
California Zephyr	66.9	144.8	46%	55.5	112.1	50%
Southwest Chief	44.4	127.7	35%	47	103.1	46%
City of New Orleans	22.6	54.2	42%	17.9	40.8	44%
Texas Eagle	27.8	69.7	40%	25.4	54.7	46%
Sunset Limited	11.6	59.4	20%	12	43.5	28%
Coast Starlight	49.5	93.9	53%	46.6	89.2	52%
Lakeshore Limited	39.5	81.9	48%	30.3	62	49%
Palmetto	28.3	46.5	61%	28.2	35.6	79%
Crescent	37.6	78.9	48%	33.7	69.6	48%
Auto Train	117.8	111.2	106%	78.1	84.8	92%

Here is a chart of operating ratios from this year vs. 2019. I think this should raise some questions.
1. Why does it cost an extra quarter billion dollars to run the NER? That increase is almost double the rate of inflation. The Acela is in line with inflation. This same question applies to many of the corridors and a couple long distance trains.
2. The NYDOT trains make no sense in the accounting. That’s their prerogative.
3. Long distance sleeper fares seem to have climbed IN LINE with expenses. Maybe someone like @niemi24s could provide more insight.
4. In terms of the loss, the long distance operating ratios aren’t that bad (on the whole, one is pathetic), but the dollar amount gap between is certainly larger.
5. Why are expenses accelerating ahead of rate of inflation? Energy? Labor? And what can be done? Capacity certainly would help. Denver cut cars I know would be huge.