Tracking ridership recovery (2022-2023)

[Anderson]

Apologies, life got busy (busier) for a few weeks. The January 2023 MPR is out. Ridership is as expected down sharply from December according to the seasonal curve, but here we go:

YTD the following 12 routes are above their Jan FY 2020 levels:
1. Ethan Allen (29,800 from 17,700)
2. Vermonter (37,300 from 35,800)
3. Maple Leaf (137,000 from 133,800)
4. Heartland Flyer (24,000 from 23,100)
5. WAS-RNK (109,500 from 80,400)
6. WAS-NFK (151,500 from 121,400)
7. WAS-Richmond (42,500 from 39,500)
8. Carolinian (101,300 from 82,900)
9. Piedmont (96,500 from 80,400)
10. Texas Eagle (99,900 from 97,600)
11. Auto Train (94,300 from 75,100)

These are within 5%:
1. Empire Service (400,500 from 415,500)
2. Silver Star (115,700 from 121,700)
3. CONO (70,800 from 71,700)
4. Sunset Limited (29,100 from 29,300)
5. LSL (115,800 from 121,700)
6. Crescent (88,700 from 91,200)

Sunset has slipped down to 5%, Springfield Shuttles have fallen off completely. LSL and Silver Star have climbed up to 5%. None have climbed to newly to above 2019 levels. Lack of demand continues to kill many state supported trains, especially the Keystone and Capitol Corridors. Lack of equipment continues to constrain the Cascades (though future reports should show easing here with the addition of new equipment) and strangle most Superliner equipped long haul trains. Virginia and North Carolina continue to prove especially bright. Improved yield management is doing wonders for the Auto Train, a rare bright spot in the LD Sector. The NER finished the month within striking distance of a monthly record. I would expect one soon. NER sellouts are happening with increasing regularity. One almost wonders if the Airo's should be longer than eight coaches. Acela continues to struggle.

A NEC-specific thought: I agree with the idea that the Airos should (perhaps) be extended to ten cars. I believe that with the current equipment profile that wouldn't be too hard to do. However, there are three counter-thoughts:
(1) Some of the selling out is due to Amtrak making trades on yield/revenue management and may slide away if fares generally push higher.
(2) There's going to be a good bit of added capacity on the Acela side when the Acela IIs (eventually) show up, and Amtrak will probably want to "force" some ridership over to those trains.
(3) With the VA situation in particular, it may make sense for Amtrak to plan on adding a few frequencies (since VA presents some challenges on that front) rather than running longer trains (and having variable-length sets in play), especially depending on conductor crewing requirements. IIRC Amtrak "owns" four r/t slots per hour out of NYP, and if Keystone ridership remains lousy there might end up being some discussions about converting one or two Keystone round-trips into Regionals.

 

[MARC Rider]

I’m hoping to use this thread to track and discuss the ongoing ridership recovery. The October 2022 Monthly Report shows some really good signs for ridership. The following eighteen routes have ridership above their October 2019 levels:

1. Texas Eagle(tte) 25,800 from 25,200
2. Sunset Limited 6,800 from 6,800**
3. Coast Starlight 33,900 from 32,000
4. Lakeshore Limited 34,600 from 28,100
5. Crescent 23,300 from 20,300
6. Auto Train 22,400 from 17,400

So these long-distance trains have increased ridership compared to pre-pandemic? This suggests that Amtrak's policy of much higher fares and degraded service is what's needed to increase ridership? I'm especially impressed with the performance of the Texas Eagle and the Crescent, despite the Eagle's being downgraded to flex dining and no Sightseer Lounge and the Crescent's operating all food service out of an Amfleet II cafe car, they've actually picked up ridership!

 

[Anderson]

So these long-distance trains have increased ridership compared to pre-pandemic? This suggests that Amtrak's policy of much higher fares and degraded service is what's needed to increase ridership? I'm especially impressed with the performance of the Texas Eagle and the Crescent, despite the Eagle's being downgraded to flex dining and no Sightseer Lounge and the Crescent's operating all food service out of an Amfleet II cafe car, they've actually picked up ridership!

The numbers have been variable from month to month, and I don't recall if there were relevant disruptions. You're also citing only October data - later in the thread, we have Oct-Jan data, and it is not as flattering.

For example, the Crescent is operating on a very different timetable now vs what it was doing in 2019 (especially northbound), and that different timetable is likely combining with the added service in Virginia to nudge ridership up on the northern segment (CVS-WAS/NYP now has three daily trains and an additional 3x/weekly train). The NB Crescent is approaching the timetable of the Piedmont Limited vs what we're used to (it's running as a CLT-NYP day train, and quite close to the Cardinal's less-than-daily schedule), and you could probably pump ridership a bit more on the northern segment if the SB train was moved to behave similarly. IIRC we have evidence that ridership at Atlanta has been hosed as a result...but that could easily lead to additional seat turnover. "Ridership count" is not the only metric of success to be had, and ridership behavior sometimes moves in spite of what is going on with a given train due to factors like "What's the timetable for the other trains on the route?"

Also, note that the situation with the Star is complicated by the Meteor having been suspended, driving NEC-Florida traffic over to the Star at the expense of the Meteor.

As of January, the only LD trains still showing a gain are the Eagle and the Auto Train. I believe that the Auto Train got a boost in ridership from the pandemic (it might well be cannibalizing some traffic from the Silvers, from snowbirds who decided they liked having their cars after being forced over to the Auto Train due to the mess that the Silvers were for a while - see above). So that leaves about a 2% gain on the Eagle alongside marginal declines on five trains...or, implicitly, 8 of 15 LD trains showing larger-than-5% declines, and only one LD train showing a "significant" increase (and yes, an increase of 25-30% is definitely "significant", especially given some of the cancellation chaos).

Edit:
So, the LD trains in "decent shape" as of January are:
10. Texas Eagle (99,900 from 97,600)
11. Auto Train (94,300 from 75,100)

These are within 5%:
2. Silver Star (115,700 from 121,700) -> Got a ridership boost from the Meteor's issues.
3. CONO (70,800 from 71,700)
4. Sunset Limited (29,100 from 29,300)
5. LSL (115,800 from 121,700)
6. Crescent (88,700 from 91,200) -> Significant schedule shift, plus VA adding a train from Roanoke to DC potentially contributing to ridership from LYH north.

It might be worth asking for a full comparison on the LD side of things through the end of Jan/Feb. I specifically note that of the trains that were "up" in October, the Crescent, LSL, and Sunset have all swung to small losses (though the Sunset's swing is background noise and could literally be down to something as negligible as the configuration of Christmas/New Years landing differently). The Coast Starlight has swung from a gain to at least a 5%+ loss. The Eagle remains up.

[Also, I would note that the Star and Crescent dropped their full meal service in late 2019...the LSL was already a mess on that front IIRC. I forget where the CONO and Texas Eagle were at that point...but it would certainly be somewhat notable if the trains that were staggering along with passable ridership were primarily those which were "already" messed up as of 2019.]

 

[Willbridge]

Lack of equipment continues to constrain the Cascades (though future reports should show easing here with the addition of new equipment) and strangle most Superliner equipped long haul trains.

Yep. The new 1505 departure PDX>SEA>VAC is appreciated but fills up in the PDX>SEA segment. On March 31 the line for the sold out 4-car train wrapped around the Portland waiting room. The usual dire warnings against trying to hog seats were issued.

 

[PRR 60]

Monthly ridership and operating revenue data for the Crescent and the Texas Eagle from January 2018 until January 2023. Note the data is per month. Data scraped from the route-level results of the monthly performance reports.

 

[west point]

PRR60: Many days in Jan 2023 Crescent sold out both coach and sleepers. Have to wonder how many more passengers it would have had if capacity had not been artificially limited? Definitely if ATL departure time had been earlier time? We recognize that sold outs might have only been for short distances.

 

[MARC Rider]

Monthly ridership and operating revenue data for the Crescent and the Texas Eagle from January 2018 until January 2023. Note the data is per month. Data scraped from the route-level results of the monthly performance reports.
View attachment 31949View attachment 31950

Looks like 2022 ridership and revenue are getting close to what they had in 2019. And that's with the limited consists and degraded food service. The higher fares don't seem to be driving passengers away, and the cutbacks probably save expenses. I'd like to see the true net revenue for these two trains, but this could be a vindication of the Anderson/Gardner strategy for long-distance service. (A few "experiential" LD trains out west, and more basic LD service everywhere else.)

 

[Septa9739]

I think that it’s important to remember that most LD passengers are in coach, the quality and price of which really hasn’t changed much. Gas prices are almost double what they were in 2019, which has decreased the competitive advantage of intercity busses and private automobile travel, so there may be more travelers of necessity in coach than previously. I suspect we are also still seeing some wealthier ***** concerned passengers in sleeper. How long that keeps up for is a question worth asking. In the long run, the way sleeper service is being run is going to implode on itself. The prices are absurd and once the economy really starts to tighten they’ll need to come down. I saw on another thread a bedroom going for $3300+ SEA to CHI. That’s not sustainable. I think that limits are already being hit. It’s been easier lately to get sleeper space than coach on the Capitol Limited in no small part (I think) because the old high bucket prices are becoming the new low buckets. Inflation also needs to be considered when considering revenue.

 

[Septa9739]

YTD the following 12 routes are above their FEB FY 2019 levels:

1. Ethan Allen (33,500 from 19,200)
2. Vermonter (43,200 from 41,300)
3. Maple Leaf (163,400 from 150,900)
4. Springfield Shuttles (173,700 from 145,000)
5. Heartland Flyer (28,200 from 25,500)
6. WAS-RNK (130,100 from 87,600)
7. WAS-NPN (135,100 from 133,900)
8. WAS-NFK (181,000 from 63,400)
9. Carolinian (122,000 from 100,300)
10. Piedmont (117,800 from 86,800)
11. Auto Train (116,200 from 93,900)
12.Lakeshore Limited (136,400 from 134,900)

These are within 5%:

1. Empire Service (485,300 from 495,000)
2. Sunset Limited (34,600 from 35,500)
3. Crescent (105,900 from 108,100)
4. Texas Eagle (119,100 from 125,300)

In February Washington to Richmond slid off the list while Washington to Newport News climbs on. It is important to note this is Feb 2023 compared to Feb 2019. I did this because of two reasons: ***** may have begun to impact Feb 2020 and 2020 was a leap year and I wasn’t going to adjust everything down 4.5%. The Texas Eagle also slips into the 5% and was replaced by the Lakeshore Limited. There is at this point little inertia in the YTD stats. An iffy month won’t make a train slip too much and a great month might not push a train too much either. A little later I will publish monthly data which is a little more exciting. Little else has changed from my commentary of Jan 2023.

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

YTD the following 12 routes are above their FEB FY 2019 levels:

1. Ethan Allen (33,500 from 19,200)
2. Vermonter (43,200 from 41,300)
3. Maple Leaf (163,400 from 150,900)
4. Springfield Shuttles (173,700 from 145,000)
5. Heartland Flyer (28,200 from 25,500)
6. WAS-RNK (130,100 from 87,600)
7. WAS-NPN (135,100 from 133,900)
8. WAS-NFK (181,000 from 63,400)
9. Carolinian (122,000 from 100,300)
10. Piedmont (117,800 from 86,800)
11. Auto Train (116,200 from 93,900)
12.Lakeshore Limited (136,400 from 134,900)

These are within 5%:

1. Empire Service (485,300 from 495,000)
2. Sunset Limited (34,600 from 35,500)
3. Crescent (105,900 from 108,100)
4. Texas Eagle (119,100 from 125,300)

In February Washington to Richmond slid off the list while Washington to Newport News climbs on. It is important to note this is Feb 2023 compared to Feb 2019. I did this because of two reasons: ***** may have begun to impact Feb 2020 and 2020 was a leap year and I wasn’t going to adjust everything down 4.5%. The Texas Eagle also slips into the 5% and was replaced by the Lakeshore Limited. There is at this point little inertia in the YTD stats. An iffy month won’t make a train slip too much and a great month might not push a train too much either. A little later I will publish monthly data which is a little more exciting. Little else has changed from my commentary of Jan 2023.

Thanks for posting those: some of the increases are quite impressive.

 

[west point]

Wonder how much the additional WAS - RNK service removed possible short distance CVS <> WAS passengers from Crescent. If so, did it allow for longer trips on Crescent? A listing of Revenue Passenger miles (RPMs) will tell us to a certain extent. Average trip lengths also some idea.

 

[Anderson]

Wonder how much the additional WASH - RNK service removed possible short distance CVS <> WASH passengers from Crescent. If so, did it allow for longer trips on Crescent? A listing of Revenue Passenger miles (RPMs) will tell us to a certain extent. Average trip lengths also some idea.

So, a few things to weigh here:
(1) As of a year or two ago, the Crescent came through LYH/CVS/WAS not long before the morning Roanoke train did (IIRC it was about an hour or so before) and ran south a bit after the SB Roanoke train did. The Crescent subsequently got shifted later northbound (southbound wasn't affected). So some ridership might have been displaced to the Regional, but mainly because the Crescent is no longer leaving earlier in the morning and is thus less suitable for some trips.
(2) The extra Roanoke service goes south in the morning and north in the evening, so it wouldn't be "crowding out" the Crescent. That particular ridership shift happened when the original train was launched. However, it would be cannibalizing ridership on the Cardinal, which was previously the only morning south/evening north train (on the days that it runs). The Crescent might also "get in on the act" northbound (again, the Cardinal was previously the only train leaving CVS after about 0900 - now the Crescent leaves later in the morning).

 

[Anderson]

Completed spit-out of data for February in VA:

WAS-RNK: Feb 2023: 20,600; YTD FY23: 130,100
WAS-NPN: Feb 2023: 22,800; YTD FY23: 135,100
WAS-NFK: Feb 2023: 29,500; YTD FY23: 181,000
WAS-RVR: Feb 2023:  8,300; YTD FY23:  50,800
In Toto: Feb 2023: 81,200; YTD FY23: 497,000

WAS-RNK: Feb 2022:  9,500; YTD FY22:  66,900
WAS-NPN: Feb 2022:  9,800; YTD FY22:  90,300
WAS-NFK: Feb 2022: 12,800; YTD FY22:  81,200
WAS-RVR: Feb 2022:  4,100; YTD FY22:  22,400
In toto: Feb 2022: 36,200; YTD FY22: 260,800

WAS-RNK: Feb 2020: 14,300; YTD FY20:  94,700
WAS-NPN: Feb 2020: 20,300; YTD FY20: 139,400
WAS-NFK: Feb 2020: 19,200; YTD FY20: 140,600
WAS-RVR: Feb 2020:  7,700; YTD FY20:  47,200
In toto: Feb 2020: 61,500; YTD FY20: 421,900

WAS-RNK: Feb 2019: 12,717; YTD FY19:  87,596
WAS-NPN: Feb 2019: 19,986; YTD FY19: 133,874
WAS-NFK: Feb 2019:  9,941; YTD FY19:  63,350
WAS-RVR: Feb 2019: 10,262; YTD FY19:  65,013
In toto: Feb 2019: 52,906; YTD FY19: 349,833

      FY19   |  FY20   |  FY22   |  FY23   |
Oct:  75,869 |  98,100 |  62,000 | 104,600 |
Nov:  83,342 |  87,800 |  66,400 | 112,900 |
Dec:  80,344 | 100,500 |  62,500 | 111,100 |
Jan:  57,372 |  74,000 |  33,700 |  87,200 |
Feb:  52,906 |  61,500 |  36,200 |  81,200 |

Commentary:
Ridership continues to run well ahead of its 2019/2020 pace. As indicated, in March the data from 2020 will cease to be a useful comparison and 2019 should become the yardstick - in 2020, February might be marginally impacted by the early parts of the pandemic, but March saw a mid-month ridership collapse and in April/May ridership was borderline negligible vs normal levels. Going forward I will probably try to work up a combined table for the twelve months pre-pandemic (October 2019-February 2020 plus March 2019-September 2019). This coincidentally lines up almost perfectly with when Norfolk got its second train (the three days of non-overlap should be made up for in any PR bumps in those rides), so such a measurement will result in comparable numbers on that basis as well (i.e. FY23's ridership, with 3 NFK trains, will be measured against a "year" with 2 NFK trains rather than a "split year").

There continue to be very few surprises:
Ridership on the Roanoke trains continues to be strong. YTD, ridership is up 37% vs 2020 (and 49% vs 2019), and for the month ridership is up 44% vs 2020 (and 62% vs 2019). It isn't the doubling one might notionally expect, but the new service is reverse-peak, physically smaller (5 cars long, with one of those being a half-BC/half-cafe), and the SB morning train originates in NYP (vs BOS) at an uncomfortable hour. The February-beats-YTD may be down to ridership getting "capped off" in multiple years at Thanksgiving/Christmas, but there's also a chance that the conductor shortage (which led to artificial capacity caps) might be relaxing.

The third Norfolk train has helped lead to about a 29% increase in ridership on that route YTD vs 2020. For 2019, the comparison is entirely versus having one Norfolk train per day, and ridership has roughly tripled since then. The fact that the original solo train was running at about 0600 and the second train's departure is at a more sane 0900-ish certainly helps (the ridership bump there was about 122%, and IIRC that train was/is decently popular north of RVR). Of note, however, is that ridership for the month of February is up 53% vs 2020 and almost exactly triple ridership in 2019 (it's up 197%); see the Roanoke train for possible reasons. An added bonus: Though 2020 may have seen some hit from the impending pandemic, it also had an extra day.

YTD NPN ridership is down slightly vs 2020 (and up slightly vs 2019), but trying to attribute that to any one factor is a fool's errand given both the added trains at Norfolk and the schedule shuffles (NPN having an exceedingly early train in the morning and then having the afternoon train north moved earlier and no longer running through NYP...though the morning train south still does). However, ridership in February is up significantly vs both years (12% and 14%, respectively). Whether this is continuing ridership adjustments, Nov/Dec often being close to capacity in any event, or due to an easing of capacity constraints is kind of hard to tell.

Finally, the Richmond route is up both YTD and for the month vs 2020 (but not 2019 - in 2019, until March this route had two trains; when the NPN morning train got switched to NFK, the second RVR train was moved to NPN). The gains here vs 2020 are probably down to adding RVM to this train.

Combined, the three "eastern" trains are up 12.1% YTD vs 2020 (and 40% vs 2019) and 28.4% for the month vs 2020 (and about 51% vs 2019). A lot of the YTD increase is down to flat-out adding one round-trip, but particularly into the new year there appears to be some organic growth on top of that as well now that we're out of two of the most constrained times of the year (Thanksgiving in particular, and also Christmas). It will be interesting to see how Spring Break, Easter, and summer ultimately play here.

The TL;DR: January was above trend (see my earlier post) and now February has been as well. March will be the start of some odd comparisons, but I'm taking the overall trend (numbers within FY23 continuing to improve over where they started - which was a good point to start anyway) as extremely positive within the state.

 

[Septa9739]

There were 16 routes whose FEB 2023 ridership was better that its 2019 (10 state and 6 long distance) and 7 within 6% (NER, 3 state, and 3 long distance)

The five best recoveries were:

1. Washington to Norfolk 295% (trips since added)
2. Ethan Allen Express 184% (we’ll see how this holds now that the Adirondack is running)
3. Washington to Roanoke 162% (trip since added)
4. Sunset Limited 141% (could partially be how the days of the week aligned but neat nonetheless)
5. Carolinian/Piedmont 131%

The five worst were:

1. Capitol Corridor 43%
2. Capitol Limited 59% (That “controlled” unmitigated disaster in East Palestine plus equipment constraints)
3. Hiawatha/Keystone tied at 62% (Keystone recovery is almost perfectly in line with SEPTA RRD Recovery. I don’t know if that means anything. It’s just weird.)
4. Cascades 65% (I suspect almost entirely equipment and schedule constraints. This number will shoot up almost magically in April)
5. Palmetto 66%

Other areas of note:

1. NER 97% (On a limited schedule, with demand skyrocking. Watch for an annual record this year. Sellouts are occurring more frequently than I ever remember before. The Acela meanwhile is sitting at 76%)
2. Illini 114% (This route had a trip restored mid year and has no hope for “recovery” on an annualized basis, but seems to be doing better)
3. Empire Builder 78% (How the mighty have fallen)

It’s a good sign that Amtrak’s recovery seems to be gaining momentum as the year continues. Tailwinds are strong. Gas prices jumped a quarter where I live this week approaching the ridiculous range. The railroad tends to do well in an iffy economy. The young generation seems to be particularly open to the mode in general. Commutation traffic is obviously still weak, but seems to be slowly but surely recovering. Headwinds are either self imposed (equipment) and/or a bad labor market.

 

[Anderson]

There were 16 routes whose FEB 2023 ridership was better that its 2019 (10 state and 6 long distance) and 7 within 6% (NER, 3 state, and 3 long distance)

The five best recoveries were:

1. Washington to Norfolk 295% (trips since added)
2. Ethan Allen Express 184% (we’ll see how this holds now that the Adirondack is running)
3. Washington to Roanoke 162% (trip since added)
4. Sunset Limited 141% (could partially be how the days of the week aligned but neat nonetheless)
5. Carolinian/Piedmont 131%

The five worst were:

1. Capitol Corridor 43%
2. Capitol Limited 59% (That “controlled” unmitigated disaster in East Palestine plus equipment constraints)
3. Hiawatha/Keystone tied at 62% (Keystone recovery is almost perfectly in line with SEPTA RRD Recovery. I don’t know if that means anything. It’s just weird.)
4. Cascades 65% (I suspect almost entirely equipment and schedule constraints. This number will shoot up almost magically in April)
5. Palmetto 66%

Other areas of note:

1. NER 97% (On a limited schedule, with demand skyrocking. Watch for an annual record this year. Sellouts are occurring more frequently than I ever remember before. The Acela meanwhile is sitting at 76%)
2. Illini 114% (This route had a trip restored mid year and has no hope for “recovery” on an annualized basis, but seems to be doing better)
3. Empire Builder 78% (How the mighty have fallen)

It’s a good sign that Amtrak’s recovery seems to be gaining momentum as the year continues. Tailwinds are strong. Gas prices jumped a quarter where I live this week approaching the ridiculous range. The railroad tends to do well in an iffy economy. The young generation seems to be particularly open to the mode in general. Commutation traffic is obviously still weak, but seems to be slowly but surely recovering. Headwinds are either self imposed (equipment) and/or a bad labor market.

You should probably note that on the Ethan Allen Express, the service was extended to Burlington. IIRC Burlington ridership kicked off strong last year (3700 over two months would annualize to over 20k) while Middlebury saw about 1700 riders (which would annualize to about 10k). Basically, that train probably has somewhere in the ballpark of 25-35k riders to add from service expansion.

 

[Septa9739]

Touche. It was mentioned by some at the beginning of the thread. I considered that adequate.

 

[Septa9739]

I'd like to make one last comment on February before moving on to March. Despite the fact that February is 3 days (10%) shorter than January and typically a lower ridership per day month than January, most routes had almost as many riders in February as in January. Some even had more: The Hiawatha, Illionois Zephyr/Carl Sandburg, Pacific Surfliner, Capitol Corridor, Newport News Regionals, Piedmont, Silver Meteor, California Zephyr, CONO, and Coast Starlight. Memory may not be so helpful here, but I think The Midwest corridors can be attributed to the lack of a polar vortex. Pac. Surf. restored weekend service LAX-SAN. The Starlight had an awful January because of flooding, mudslides, and other acts of God, which I believe also affected the Capitol Corridor. The others seem to be simply growing.

 

[Septa9739]

In March, the following 11 routes report ridership above their 2019 levels YTD. This is the midyear report:
1. Ethan Allen (42,900 from 23,000) Extension and lack of competition from Adirondack
2. Vermonter (51,400 from 49,100)
3. Empire West/Maple Leaf (199,500 from 181,700)
4. Springfield Shuttle (204,400 from 174,500)
5. Heartland Fyler (35,300 from 32,800)
6. Roanoke (157,600 from 105,900) 2 round trips from 1
7. Newport News (163,100 from 159,000)
8. Norfolk (217,600 from 73,000) 3 round trips from 1
9. Carolinian (148,100 from 121,800)
10. Piedmont (143,100 from 107,100)
11. Auto Train (143,100 from 114,500) reporting $9.1 profit

The following three routes were within 5%:
1. Empire South (583,700 from 592,800)
2. LSL (161,600 from 163,700)
3. Crescent (130,400 from 134,300)

The Eagle and Sunset have slipped off. The LSL has slipped down from record territory. It's the same winners for the same reasons. The monthly numbers (which will take me some time to digest) should be more interesting. The NER is climbing its way back quickly (barely missing the 5% YTD). The Illini/Saluki seem to be benefiting from better OTP. Equipment continues to be a huge problem for long distance, although the Cascades should show some relief as each set received an extra car in March. Corridors previously reliant on commutation continue to look soft. I totally missed February, my bad.

 

[Septa9739]

Per News report below
Burlington: 20-30 weekday boards, hundreds on weekend.
Middlebury: 15 weekday, 30-40 on weekend.
Vergennes: 8-10 daily.
Estimated annual for the three stations: 33,000 (above original forecast)

This endorses the hypothesis that the growth of the Ethan Allen is due to new ridership and not people shifting to it for lack of the Adirondack. Very good news.

Amtrak Recap: Summer ridership outlook and potential expansion

 

[Septa9739]

In April the following routes report YTD ridership above April 2019.

1. Ethan Allen Express
2. Vermonter
3. Maple Leaf
4. Springfield Shuttles
5. Heartland Flyer
6. Roanoke Regionals
7. Newport News Regionals
8. Norfolk Regionals
9. Carolinian
10. Piedmont
11. Auto Train

The following were within 5%

1. Empire South
2. Illini/Saluki
3. Lakeshore Limited

The only change this month was that the Illini crept up into the 5% bracket, while the Crescent slipped off. There was plenty of good news in the report. On a monthly basis, The NER finally popped above its 2019 level with 101% recovery. May should be be better still as there were schedule additions mid month. Acela continues to lag. The Keystone climbed up out of nowhere to 76% of April 2019 ridership, almost beating Empire South for the month for the first time in years. The Capitol Corridor did likewise, popping to 87% recovery for the month. Cascades ridership is up 40% since September, to a recovery of 80%. If we could get a fifth coach on the trains, recovery would be complete. Virginia and North Carolina continue to be unstoppable, as does the Auto Train. The Crescent and CONO also had a full recovery for April. The Empire Builder finally had a good month, about 90% of April 2019

While the report was large positive, there are issues. Ridership continued to slide on the Pacific Surfliner, now firmly the worst recovery in the system. Long distance trains are starved for equipment, when cars are added reports magically improve (see Empire Builder, Lakeshore Limited, CONO). The Capitol Limited Availability is embarrassing. The Sunset Limited’s early success seems to have fizzled (although I have faint memories of an equipment reduction.)

That seems to do it, may some people have local info they can use to supplement my report-based report.

 

[TransitTyrant]

The Surfliners issue with recovery stem purely from the track closures at this point.

 

[jis]

The Surfliners issue with recovery stem purely from the track closures at this point.

Exactly. If there is absence of usable service, then there will not be riders using those.

 

[Septa9739]

In May the following routes report YTD ridership above May 2019.

1. Ethan Allen Express
2. Vermonter
3. Maple Leaf
4. Springfield Shuttles
5. Empire South
6. Heartland Flyer
7. Roanoke Regionals
8. Newport News Regionals
9. Norfolk Regionals
10. Carolinian
11. Piedmont
12. Auto Train

The following were within 5%

1. NER
2. Illini/Saluki
3. CONO
4. Lakeshore Limited

This month the NER, bolstered by its best May ever, at 101% of May 2019 ridership, pushed into the less than 5% off category. The CONO, fully equipped unlike most long hauls, also pushed back to the 5% category. I suspect 2023 will be a record year for the NER. As has been its custom all year, Empire South pushed back to the full recovery category. It is floating right around 100% recovery all year. All routes showing full YTD recoveries are also showing monthly 100% recoveries with the exception of the Newport News Regionals, at about 98% of 2019 levels. Additionally the Illini had a month above 2019 levels. The Blue Water, Texas Eagle, and Sunset Limited were all within 5% for the month.


Acela ridership continues to lag, along with all California Corridors. Keystone recovery sits at about 72%, retaining most of last month’s gains.Comcast, Philadelphia’s largest corporate employer is mandating 4 days in the office starting after Labor Day. SEPTA is expecting a significant bump in ridership, perhaps the Keystone will see one too. Cascades ridership sat at about 88% Equipment constraint continuing to be a huge problem. Most routes are gaining steam through the year. The not so pacific condition of the Surfliner route continues to hold recovery at 50%. Long distance is pretty ugly at this point, with most routes off 10-15% on ridership, 2019 not being a great year in the first place, but margins have just about recovered, so maybe execs are happy. State supported is a bit of a financial bloodbath. There is something really fishy with the NEC allocations. Acela operating expenses are up 16% since 2019, less than rate of inflation, despite increasing maintenance issues. NER operating expenses are up 39%, which is probably not far from the truth. Keystone expenses are up 80% since 2019. Amtrak’s losses on the Keystone YTD are more than its entire expenses YTD in 2019. Acela revenues are down about a third, in line with ridership, NER up 8%, Keystone down 44%, a bit ahead of ridership. Maybe some one a bit more experienced than I can interpret this, but I get the sense the Acela is being propped.

 

[TransitTyrant]

In May the following routes report YTD ridership above May 2019.

1. Ethan Allen Express
2. Vermonter
3. Maple Leaf
4. Springfield Shuttles
5. Empire South
6. Heartland Flyer
7. Roanoke Regionals
8. Newport News Regionals
9. Norfolk Regionals
10. Carolinian
11. Piedmont
12. Auto Train

The following were within 5%

1. NER
2. Illini/Saluki
3. CONO
4. Lakeshore Limited

This month the NER, bolstered by its best May ever, at 101% of May 2019 ridership, pushed into the less than 5% off category. The CONO, fully equipped unlike most long hauls, also pushed back to the 5% category. I suspect 2023 will be a record year for the NER. As has been its custom all year, Empire South pushed back to the full recovery category. It is floating right around 100% recovery all year. All routes showing full YTD recoveries are also showing monthly 100% recoveries with the exception of the Newport News Regionals, at about 98% of 2019 levels. Additionally the Illini had a month above 2019 levels. The Blue Water, Texas Eagle, and Sunset Limited were all within 5% for the month.


Acela ridership continues to lag, along with all California Corridors. Keystone recovery sits at about 72%, retaining most of last month’s gains.Comcast, Philadelphia’s largest corporate employer is mandating 4 days in the office starting after Labor Day. SEPTA is expecting a significant bump in ridership, perhaps the Keystone will see one too. Cascades ridership sat at about 88% Equipment constraint continuing to be a huge problem. Most routes are gaining steam through the year. The not so pacific condition of the Surfliner route continues to hold recovery at 50%. Long distance is pretty ugly at this point, with most routes off 10-15% on ridership, 2019 not being a great year in the first place, but margins have just about recovered, so maybe execs are happy. State supported is a bit of a financial bloodbath. There is something really fishy with the NEC allocations. Acela operating expenses are up 16% since 2019, less than rate of inflation, despite increasing maintenance issues. NER operating expenses are up 39%, which is probably not far from the truth. Keystone expenses are up 80% since 2019. Amtrak’s losses on the Keystone YTD are more than its entire expenses YTD in 2019. Acela revenues are down about a third, in line with ridership, NER up 8%, Keystone down 44%, a bit ahead of ridership. Maybe some one a bit more experienced than I can interpret this, but I get the sense the Acela is being propped.

Why are Keystone expenses rising so much? Is it because Amtrak sometimes has to use an extra locomotive due to Metroliner cab car reliability?

 

[Septa9739]

I have seen that occasionally, but not more than usual. Even still that would be measured in thousands to tens of thousands. The Keystone's losses are akin to an equipment starved long haul train, with a full OBS complement and no economies of scale, AFTER state subsidies.